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  • Think Tank’s talking points deepen the divide over climate change

     

     

    Hot Topics

    16 February 2012, 4.11pm AEST

    Think tank’s talking points deepen the divide over climate change

    The trouble with words is that you never know whose mouths they’ve been in. —– Dennis Potter Readers following the Australian news media’s coverage of climate change will probably have detected the conspiracy theories designed to discredit climate science and climate scientists. These conspiracy theories…

    Author

    Disclosure Statement

    Elaine McKewon receives an Australian Postgraduate Award Scholarship from the Australian government’s Department of Industry, Innovation, Science, Research and Tertiary Education. This full-time PhD scholarship was awarded to enable research that is in the public interest and free of vested interests.

    The University of Technology, Sydney is a Founding Partner of The Conversation.

    Our goal is to ensure the content is not compromised in any way. We therefore ask all authors to disclose any potential conflicts of interest before publication.

    Icon-cc Licence to republish

    We license our articles under Creative Commons — attribution, no derivatives.

    Click here to get a copy of this article to republish.

    8std3pyf-1329365411 Valiant sceptics have taken on the evil dragon of climate change conspiracy. magia e/Flickr

    The trouble with words is that you never know whose mouths they’ve been in. —– Dennis Potter

    Readers following the Australian news media’s coverage of climate change will probably have detected the conspiracy theories designed to discredit climate science and climate scientists.

    These conspiracy theories label the scientific consensus on anthropogenic global warming “a hoax”, “a religion” or a “scare tactic” concocted to justify higher taxes and arbitrary, draconian restrictions on the personal freedoms of “helpless” and “disenfranchised” citizens.

    Purveyors of this alternative reality tell us the entire global community of climate scientists has fabricated or exaggerated the threat of climate change to secure further funding for their research. This has been aided and abetted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, a “political” organisation bent on fomenting a global warming crisis in order to install a left-wing totalitarian world government.

    At first, it may seem surprising that such dramatistic, florid “fantasy themes” would appear so often in editorials and opinion columns of major newspapers – usually penned by conservative members of the press who cast minority-view scientists as modern day Galileos.

    Occasionally, the contrarians themselves variously compare the field of climate science to the powerful religious elite who persecuted Galileo and the Stalinist regime who sent dissident scientists to the gulags or to their deaths.

    Who is the modern-day Galileo? Children of the Concrete/Flickr

    My recently published study, Talking Points Ammo, found that many of these fantasy themes were developed by the Institute of Public Affairs (IPA), a Melbourne-based neoliberal think tank. They were then published in the Australian news media – first via op-eds written by IPA staff and associate scholars, and then by way of ideologically sympathetic newspaper editors, reporters and opinion columnists.

    Who is the IPA?

    Today, the IPA is a high-profile organisation that consistently rejects the evidence for anthropogenic climate change and opposes mitigation strategies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Its staff and associate scholars are usually presented as independent experts who provide unbiased commentary.

    However, the IPA has had a close relationship with the Liberal Party of Australia since its inception in the early 1940s. The IPA was founded by members of the emerging Liberal Party in the early 1940s. Since then, a number of the IPA’s staff – including current executive director John Roskam – have either run for public office as Liberal candidates or worked as staffers for Liberal MPs.

    Environmentalists are green on the outside, but suspiciously red when opened. leff/Flickr

    Despite its non-profit status, the IPA accepts significant donations from corporate sponsors such as the tobacco industry as well as the fossil fuel, mining and energy industries. These benefit from the IPA’s use of the news media to promote political agendas that serve the interests of those sponsors.

    Finally there is the IPA’s board of directors, which usually includes senior Liberal Party figures and senior mining and energy company executives.

    News media outlets have just reported that one of the IPA’s associate scholars and most prominent climate contrarians, Professor Bob Carter, is allegedly receiving funds from the Heartland Institute, a US think tank that also rejects the scientific consensus on climate change.

    Who is saying what and where

    In my recent article I report an analysis of three datasets:

    • magazine articles published in The IPA Review between 1989 and 2009

    • opinion pieces written by IPA senior staff and published in Australian newspapers between 1989 and 2009.

    • editorials and opinion columns that praised IPA associate scholar Ian Plimer and his book Heaven & Earth during April-June 2009, in the lead-up to the first Australian parliamentary debates on introducing an emissions trading scheme.

    Using a combination of Discourse Analysis and Fantasy Theme Analysis, the study identified nine discrete anti-climate-science fantasy themes developed by the IPA and published in the Australian news media.

    (Discourse Analysis takes into account the practices associated with the production and consumption of media texts. This study examined media texts for their immediate content as well as their relationship to other texts. Fantasy Theme Analysis takes a structured look at the narratives that express a group’s dramatic interpretation of a real-life event; this includes basic components such as characters and plot lines.)

    The nine themes were grouped into two categories. In the first category, “a plea for scientific truth”, there are four fantasy themes:

    • climate scientists as rent-seeking frauds
    • climate scientists as dissent-stifling elite
    • Plimer as Galileo
    • Plimer as the people’s scientist.

    The second grouping, “religious, political and economic conspiracies”, includes five fantasy themes:

    • climate science as religion
    • environmentalism as religion
    • climate science as left-wing conspiracy
    • green as the new red
    • climate change mitigation as money-spinning scam.

    Climate change: it’s a religion. Universe Catholic Archives

    To understand these dramatic themes we use Ernest Bormann’s Symbolic Convergence Theory and Fantasy Theme Analysis. As Bormann explains:

    “When someone dramatizes an event he or she must select certain people to be the focus of the story and present them in a favorable light while selecting others to be portrayed in a more negative fashion … Interpreting events in terms of human action allows us to assign responsibility, to praise or blame, to arouse and propitiate guilt, to hate, and to love.”

    Thus, a fantasy theme is a dramatised morality-based narrative driven by stock characters such as heroes and villains.

    In the study’s first grouping of fantasy themes, “the plea for scientific truth”, climate scientists are portrayed as villains whose published research forms the basis of the scientific consensus on climate change. The heroes are contrarian or “sceptic” scientists who reject the scientific consensus and speak truth to power at the risk of incurring the wrath of the iron-fisted “establishment”.

    It’s all a conspiracy

    These fantasy themes tell the story of a global cabal of climate scientists who are consumed with protecting their privileged status and blind to the “reality” that anthropogenic climate change has no evidentiary basis. The primary plot line sees this powerful scientific elite dominating and controlling the field of climate science and suppressing the “scientific truth” by persecuting the scientific voices of dissent.

    Rajendra Pachauri and Ban Ki-Moon conspiring to institute a New World Order. United Nations

    In the second category of fantasy themes, “religious, political and economic conspiracies”, by far the most frequently used fantasy theme was “climate science as religion”. This theme enables evidence-based scientific conclusions to be dismissed as an arbitrary set of beliefs or dogma.

    The plot line of the fantasy theme “climate science as left-wing political conspiracy” sees the environmental religion’s leftist allies (Labor and Green political parties, and even the United Nations) using climate change as a “scare tactic”. The aim is to consolidate their political power, increase taxes to redistribute wealth, and impose a New World Order that will compromise national sovereignty and restrict personal freedoms.

    These two fantasy themes serve to delegitimise the most vocal social groups who support action on climate change: the environmental movement and the political left. They are portrayed not as people rationally responding to a real environmental threat identified by the science. They are variously cast as irrational religious fundamentalists following a doomsday cult or as left-wing conspirators cynically using a fabricated or exaggerated threat to pursue political goals.

    A good story can take you a long way

    Together, these fantasy themes construct a rhetorical vision – an alternative reality – that is consistent with the ideology promoted by neoliberal think tanks such as the IPA and the hostility they provoke towards traditional “enemies” such as the environmental movement and the political left.

    These fantasy themes serve as important markers of group identity for the IPA and its coalition of associate scholars, editors, opinion columnists and readers. They repeat the narratives – for example, in letters to the editor or in online comments or discussion forums. This repetition is a strong indication that they see themselves as members of the group.

    Finally, the chaining out of these fantasy themes through the news media serves to build and sustain the rhetorical community. It also continues to propagate doubt about the reality, causes and consequences of climate change. And once doubt is sown, the game is changed. Whether you can back up your statements or not, creating doubt, making a non-contentious issue contentious, entirely reframes the debate.

    In this case, the fantasy themes are helping to build and sustain a social movement that has at its core a deep and abiding suspicion of climate science, climate scientists and anyone who accepts the scientific consensus. This further serves to justify inaction on climate change.

     

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    26 Comments

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    1. Tim Scanlon

      Tim Scanlon

      Climate and Agronomic Extension at Department of Agriculture and Food – Western Australia

      Score: +11

      insightful +
      unconstructive –

      The tactics and payments oil companies have made to think tanks that are anti-science have recently been exposed. Internal company documents have come to light showing the fraudulent practices of the people involved.

      http://www.skepticalscience.com/denialgate-heartland.html
      http://www.desmogblog.com/heartland-confirms-it-mistakenly-emailed-internal-documents
      http://www.desmogblog.com/heartland-institute-exposed-internal-documents-unmask-heart-climate-denial-machine
      http://www.desmogblog.com/mashey-report-confirms-heartland-s-manipulation-exposes-singer-s-deception

      This needs even bigger media coverage than the specious accusations leveled at climate scientists. This is documented fraud, not someone’s opinion.

      • about 16 hours ago
        1. Marc Hendrickx

          Marc Hendrickx

          Geologist

          logged in via email @gmail.com

          Score: -10

          insightful +
          unconstructive –

          Tim, can you please clarify your claims of fraud on this. It appears the only fraud here is on the part of those (one presumes them to be CAGW activists) who have acquired and disseminated the documents. For it seems that one document, that has been the focus of much attention is a fake, and a very clumsily one at that. Anthony Watts has a concise post on this at WUWT.

          http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/02/15/notes-on-the-fake-heartland-document/

          None of the climategate emails were faked.

          • about 13 hours ago
            1. Tim Scanlon

              Tim Scanlon

              Climate and Agronomic Extension at Department of Agriculture and Food – Western Australia

              Score: +8

              insightful +
              unconstructive –

              Marc you are still in denial. Lakely confirmed the validity of the documents and how they were emailed to people.

              Denier fraudsters are just in damage control, trying to convince everyone they aren’t anti-science, when they are.

              Oh, and those hacked emails, I’ve actually read them and not just the cherry picked quotes. There is nothing but scientists discussing science there.

              • about 11 hours ago
                1. Marc Hendrickx

                  Marc Hendrickx

                  Geologist

                  logged in via email @gmail.com

                  Score: -11

                  insightful +
                  unconstructive –

                  Tim follow the link. It should be easy for Heartland to provide the original email.

                  lets see “scientists discussing science” you say…

                  Tim Mitchell #0051: Our Wednesday lunchtime Bible study course on John’s Gospel finished last week, so in half an hour we will be gathering some of the regulars together to sit in the sunshine and talk. Perhaps the more informal structure will allow one or two of the students to open up to us? The Lod knows…

                  Ben Santer 125510087: “Next time I see Pat…

                  show full comment

                  • about 11 hours ago
                    1. Tim Scanlon

                      Tim Scanlon

                      Climate and Agronomic Extension at Department of Agriculture and Food – Western Australia

                      Score: +2

                      insightful +
                      unconstructive –

                      And you cherry pick again Marc.

                      Interesting that you would link to Anthony Watts’ comments, seeing as how he was one of the people shown to have been paid off. We knew he took money from big oil and Heartland to go on his pointless crusade (weather stations located in bad places, really? Can’t think why they adjust data then. Not that weather has anything to do with climate).

                      I see he gets paid roughly $100,000 per year by Heartleand/Big oil to run a denial webpage now. Talk about vested interest.

                      • about 8 hours ago
                        1. Marc Hendrickx

                          Marc Hendrickx

                          Geologist

                          logged in via email @gmail.com

                          Score: -3

                          insightful +
                          unconstructive –

                          I have passed on your comments to Anthony and his legal team and provided them with Andrew Jaspan’s email address. You are lying, defaming Watts and making this site open to legal action. At the the very least an an apology is in order. Here’s what Anthony Watts is doing with the money from Heartland. Surprising that you would not support such an altruistic endeavour that will not cost the public a cent.

                          “They do not regularly fund me nor my WUWT website, I take no salary from them of any kind…

                          show full comment

                          • about 2 hours ago
                            1. Davoe McNamee

                              Davoe McNamee

                              logged in via email @gmail.com

                              Score: +2

                              insightful +
                              unconstructive –

                              Oh the Irony. Anthony Watts suing for defamation. This from the guy who implied Michael Mann was involved in the child-sex scandal at Penn State.
                              One suspects Tim Scanlon will sleep easily without any knocks on the door from Watt’s lawyers.

                            2. Davoe McNamee

                              Davoe McNamee

                              logged in via email @gmail.com

                              Score: +1

                              insightful +
                              unconstructive –

                              Ah Bob it must be the “the BBC, commercial television, all major newspapers, the Royal Society, the Chief Scientist, the Archbishop of Canterbury, the Bishop of London, David Attenborough, countless haloed-image organisations such as the Royal Society for the Protection of Birds, and even Prince Charles himself” at it again.

                            3. Marc Hendrickx

                              Marc Hendrickx

                              Geologist

                              logged in via email @gmail.com

                              Score: -3

                              insightful +
                              unconstructive –

                              Here’s a more detailed description of the project from the Heartland papers:
                              Weather Stations Project
                              Every few months, weathermen report that a temperature record – either high
                              or low – has been broken somewhere in the U.S. This is not surprising, since weather is highly variable and reliable instrument records date back less than 100 years old. Regrettably, news of these broken records is often used by environmental extremists as evidence that human emissions are causing either global warming…

                              show full comment

                            4. Marc Hendrickx

                              Marc Hendrickx

                              Geologist

                              logged in via email @gmail.com

                              Score: -1

                              insightful +
                              unconstructive –

                              More media attention?
                              Leaked Docs From Heartland Institute Cause a Stir—but Is One a Fake?

                              http://www.theatlantic.com/national/archive/2012/02/leaked-docs-from-heartland-institute-cause-a-stir-but-is-one-a-fake/253165/

                              • 36 minutes ago
                                1. Paul Richards

                                  Paul Richards

                                  logged in via Twitter

                                  Score:

                                  insightful +
                                  unconstructive –

                                  Marc – would it be appropriate to as believe what one of Josef Goebbels minions said in their media about Nazi Party motive? Please give your readers some credit.

                                2. Paul Richards

                                  Paul Richards

                                  logged in via LinkedIn

                                  Score: +7

                                  insightful +
                                  unconstructive –

                                  Elaine – you nailed it, excellent piece now watch the fur fly.

                                  This global set of propaganda started by the very same agencies as the tobacco industry used is being see for what it is.

                                  Not before time the human collective intelligence is way beyond “Marlboro Man” tactics, it’s transparent to the generations of youth following, who understand and have learned about these strategies in K8 – K12 classes. The time for reckoning is coming “baby boomers” and older, you are gradually becoming redundant.

                                  • about 15 hours ago
                                    1. Dale Bloom

                                      Dale Bloom

                                      Laboratory analyst

                                      logged in via email @mail.com

                                      Score: +2

                                      insightful +
                                      unconstructive –

                                      Objection.

                                      Discrimination on the grounds of age.

                                      see Age Discrimination Act 2004

                                      http://www.austlii.edu.au/au/legis/cth/consol_act/ada2004174/

                                      • about 14 hours ago
                                        1. Paul Richards

                                          Paul Richards

                                          logged in via LinkedIn

                                          Score: +2

                                          insightful +
                                          unconstructive –

                                          Dale – noted and apologise for any sensitivities.
                                          There are evolved “baby boomers” here, they know who they are.

                                          • about 8 hours ago
                                            1. Dale Bloom

                                              Dale Bloom

                                              Laboratory analyst

                                              logged in via email @mail.com

                                              Score: -1

                                              insightful +
                                              unconstructive –

                                              Paul,

                                              I won’t argue about it. You carried out age discrimination. Read the act

                                              http://www.austlii.edu.au/au/legis/cth/consol_act/ada2004174/

                                            2. Andy King

                                              Andy King

                                              Physics teacher

                                              logged in via email @bigpond.com

                                              Score: -4

                                              insightful +
                                              unconstructive –

                                              Paul, what would be interesting would be if Elaine was to apply the same critical techniques to the proponents of AGW. Under that constructivist form of scrutiny, that particular viewpoint would not look particularly valid. As it stands her argument adds nothing to the debate and is little more than a hatchett job on a view to which she is clearly opposed – warm & fuzzy if you agree with her, cold and heartless if you dont.

                                            3. Byron Smith

                                              Byron Smith

                                              PhD candidate in Christian Ethics at University of Edinburgh

                                              Score: +3

                                              insightful +
                                              unconstructive –

                                              Someone has had fun with the images and captions on this excellent article by Ms McKewon. Minor point: the first image does not show a dragon.

                                            4. Gavin Moodie

                                              Gavin Moodie

                                              Principal Policy Adviser

                                              logged in via email @telstra.com

                                              Score:

                                              insightful +
                                              unconstructive –

                                              It is interesting that the IPA and other right wingers call climate science and environmentalism pejoratively a religion, when presumably most of them or their supporters are conservative christians.

                                            5. Marc Hendrickx

                                              Marc Hendrickx

                                              Geologist

                                              logged in via email @gmail.com

                                              Score: -14

                                              insightful +
                                              unconstructive –

                                              Bob Carter pulls in $1550 a month from the private Heartland Institute to promote climate rationalism and this is somehow a scandal? His relationship with Heartland is no secret, he is an author of the Heartland funded NIPCC summary report. The amount Carter gets is 10x less than Climate Commissioner Tim Flannery syphons from the public’s threadbare purse as the government’s number one agent for alarmist climate propaganda and billions less than the cost of Flannery’s advice and dodgy weather predictions…

                                              show full comment

                                            6. Marc Hendrickx

                                              Marc Hendrickx

                                              Geologist

                                              logged in via email @gmail.com

                                              Score: -14

                                              insightful +
                                              unconstructive –

                                              Elaine,
                                              All the points you raise have been used by proponents of AGW. So no intellectual honesty in your study then. Shame.

                                              dissenting climate scientists as rent-seeking frauds
                                              dissenting climate scientists as dissent-stifling elite
                                              Hansen as Galileo
                                              Hansen as the people’s scientist.
                                              Non alarmist climate science as religion
                                              Non alarmist climate science as a new creationism
                                              non alarmist climate science as right-wing conspiracy
                                              Nuclear energy as a money-spinning scam.

                                              • about 15 hours ago
                                                1. Eclipse Now

                                                  Eclipse Now

                                                  Manager of design firm

                                                  logged in via email @optusnet.com.au

                                                  Score: +2

                                                  insightful +
                                                  unconstructive –

                                                  Hi Marc,
                                                  the biggest point against the dissenting climate scientists is not the scientists, or the funding, but the science. And the fact that the tired old myths they push again and again and again have been debunked and addressed in the peer-reviewed literature. So they dig up a Denialist fan base and guess what they do? Repeat the myths again! It’s only fair. They can’t get published in the peer-reviewed literature, so they go outside it and write science fiction like Ian Plimer’s ‘Heaven and Earth’, one of the worst pieces of anti-science agit-prop ever written. Funny how geologists set themselves up as climate experts. But hey, as a discipline you guys seem genetically predisposed to Denialism. Almost makes me think of that recent kid’s movie “Avatar: the last air-bender”. Experts in earth and air seemed to be old enemies.

                                                  • about 12 hours ago
                                                    1. Marc Hendrickx

                                                      Marc Hendrickx

                                                      Geologist

                                                      logged in via email @gmail.com

                                                      Score: -10

                                                      insightful +
                                                      unconstructive –

                                                      Mr Now.
                                                      (If that is your real name), The peer reviewed literature increasingly indicates that IPCC climate models have overstated the climate’s response to human activity, be it through increased emissions of greenhouse gases, or landuse change or other factors. This is not to say we will not face challenges in the future as we put increasing pressure on our surroundings, Thankfully the science has shown that the climate Armageddon favoured by a few has a low probability of eventuating.
                                                      Avatar (the one with the tall blue smurfs) is a good analogy for the propaganda activists, (such as yourself) have been spruiking.

                                                    2. Bruce Moon

                                                      Bruce Moon

                                                      Bystander!

                                                      logged in via email @imap.cc

                                                      Score: -1

                                                      insightful +
                                                      unconstructive –

                                                      Elaine

                                                      I have a concern with your article.

                                                      First, let me say I have no concern with you contrasting the views of the IPA – a looney right entity of political conservatism – with the established scientific view towards climate change.

                                                      The concern I have appears minor, but I suggest serves to undermine the credibility of your argument.

                                                      My concern is that you only canvas the views of the established scientific view towards climate change and those of the looney right IPA.

                                                      Despite the strongly held views of the established scientific view towards climate change, there are other credible alternate views about this phenomena. My concern is it would have been preferable had you at least acknowledged that those other views exist, before then seeking to debunk the biased views presented by the looney right IPA. That way, you would have shown you were not engaging in the bigger debate, rather, just targeting the politics of the looney right.

                                                      Cheers

                                                    3. Sean Lamb

                                                      Sean Lamb

                                                      logged in via Facebook

                                                      Score: -5

                                                      insightful +
                                                      unconstructive –

                                                      Ha!

                                                      I always knew it. The Liberal Party hates children and wants them all to drown or whatever disastrous outcome it is this month.

                                                      Actually the messianism is by no means limited to Climate Change deniers on this issue.

                                                      Anyway the mark of a good theory is the ability to make predictions – thus far the record of Climate Change scientists on that score has been somewhat less than stellar.

                                                    4. Simon Chapman

                                                      Simon Chapman

                                                      Professor of Public Health at University of Sydney

                                                      Score:

                                                      insightful +
                                                      unconstructive –

                                                      The most amusing thing about “think tanks” is the way they seem to crave status as genuine seats of scholarship. They typically call themselves “Institutes”, you know, like Massachusetts Institute of Technology, the National Cancer Institute or the Institute Pasteur. The allow their staff to be called “Fellows”, you know, like Oxford dons. They publish occasional papers. The grain-fed new-fogeyist types who work there have often never had any other job or life experience beyond undergraduate Labor…

                                                      show full comment

                                                    5. James Walker

                                                      James Walker

                                                      logged in via Facebook

                                                      Score: -1

                                                      insightful +
                                                      unconstructive –

                                                      So, why can a fairy tale get up and stay up?

                                                      Because the general public have no reason to trust anyone. We can’t get access to the original scientific research (yet – https://theconversation.edu.au/spread-the-word-scientists-are-tearing-down-publishers-walls-5098 – so there’s hope).

                                                      Our schools are a joke, so we lack the background scientific education to understand what is going on (consider how the phrase “just a theory” demonstrates a misunderstanding of what a scientific theory *is…

                                                      show full comment

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  • Paving our market gardens:choosing suburbs over food

     

    Hot Topics

    3 January 2012, 8.14am AEST

    Paving our market gardens: choosing suburbs over food

    In 1947 the Sydney Basin produced “three quarters of the State’s lettuces, half of the spinach, a third of the cabbages and a quarter of the beans; seventy percent of the State’s poultry farms were in the [Basin] and more than eighteen percent of Sydney’s milk came from the [Basin]”. Sixty years later…

    Author

    Disclosure Statement

    Jonathan Sobels received funding as a member of the National Institute for Labour Studies at Flinders University which was commissioned by the Department of Immigration and Citizenship to carry out the research from which this article is an edited excerpt.

    Flinders University is a Member of The Conversation.

    Our goal is to ensure the content is not compromised in any way. We therefore ask all authors to disclose any potential conflicts of interest before publication.

    Icon-cc Licence to republish

    We license our articles under Creative Commons — attribution, no derivatives.

    Click here to get a copy of this article to republish.

    Dsr4ghx8-1323220721 We need to think about the benefits of locally grown food before signing off on suburban sprawl. avlxyz/Flickr

    In 1947 the Sydney Basin produced “three quarters of the State’s lettuces, half of the spinach, a third of the cabbages and a quarter of the beans; seventy percent of the State’s poultry farms were in the [Basin] and more than eighteen percent of Sydney’s milk came from the [Basin]”.

    Sixty years later, the Metropolitan Plan proposes reducing the area of Basin farms to about 600 hectares, through the residential development of 220,000 homes in the north-west and south-west growth areas. The development will pave over 52% or 603 hectares of Sydney’s remaining fresh produce farms. The area devoted to greenhouse vegetables could decline by as much as 60%.

    In 2006, of the 90% of the vegetable growers who produced 90% of Sydney’s fresh vegetables, 40% had market gardens located in the designated urban growth areas with no apparent strategies for their relocation¹.

    Local farmers have economic and social benefits

    Existing agricultural production within the Sydney Basin contributes about $1 billion at the farm gate and $4.5 billion in multiplier effects to the NSW economy². These farmers are producing 12% of the “farm gate value” of NSW primary production using just 1% of the state’s land area.

    Of the $1 billion farm gate production value, vegetables accounted for $250 million per annum (pa), poultry $278 million pa (both worth 40% of NSW production), and cut flowers $185 million pa.

    Peri-urban gardening is also socially valuable. Market gardens have been vital in establishing the livelihoods of successive waves of immigrants. Each wave began cultivating particular crops of fresh vegetables with which they were familiar (and for which their own communities were a captive market).

    They were able to establish a capital base working in factories, restaurants, driving taxis, working on farms and purchasing their own land. They were motivated to be “their own boss”, avoid situations where language was a problem in earning an income, and to avoid being on social security. About 80% of market gardeners are from non-English-speaking backgrounds.

    Everything is interdependent

    Food security in capital cities relies upon interdependent global systems of financial and food markets, political trade agreements, cheap fuel costs in transportation, and sophisticated logistics. Food security implies a constant availability of food.

    Sydney, like most of south-eastern Australia in 2006 – 2009 became vulnerable to drought. Floods and cyclones in Queensland created shortages of some foods, most notably bananas in 2011. NSW already imports 75% of its seafood.

    Sydney is vulnerable to international volatility in market prices for a range of commodities. And should the price of oil escalate, it will make transportation of fresh foods over long distances problematic. For these reasons, Sydney needs its own supply of food.

    Fresh food means better health

    In October 2009, a Victorian Local Government Association report discussed the issue of food insecurity from the perspective of the steady decline of agricultural production close to Melbourne. The study linked the loss of peri-urban agricultural production with food security, land use planning, health and jobs.

    When food is 40% to 70% of your weekly budget, any price rise can be life threatening. There were food riots in 28 countries in 2008 when world prices doubled and tripled for dietary staples – wheat, rice and corn/maize. We are fortunate that food only comprises around 15% of the weekly budget in Australia. We are fortunate, too, that we can afford to throw out some 30% of the food we purchase.

    What’s more important: development or food?

    Other stakeholders – such as land developers – responded positively to NSW’s release of the planned growth regions. Their not-unexpected perspective was captured by the headline: Grow suburbs, not vegies.

    These proponents of growth and development look to technology to offer “industrial” food production. They want to use techniques such as capital-intensive computer-controlled glasshouses using hydroponics technology, and large transport hubs to organise food distribution by road to Sydney from production beyond the Sydney Basin.

    Real estate developers have a substantial stake in the implementation of the State Metropolitan Plan growth areas. Preserving Sydney’s urban and peri-urban farms will apparently “cripple” the city’s growth, decreasing housing and rental stocks as population growth increases and forcing up prices. Mr Aaron Gadiel, CEO of the Urban Taskforce, asks“ “should we … deprive ourselves of housing and job-creating industries to prop up an industry which is not economically viable?”.

    But I wonder: should local, fresh food production be equated with development in terms of priorities?

    References

    1. Parker, F., 2007. Making peri-urban farmers on the fringe matter, State of Australian Cities Conference, Adelaide, November.

    2. Sydney Food Fairness Alliance, 2006. Sydney Basin Agriculture: Local Food, Local Economy. Newsletter # 1, SFFA.

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    1. November 30, 2011 What happens when there’s no water? How the Murray-Darling plan might affect communities
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      1. Frank Moore

        Frank Moore

        Consultant

        logged in via email @gmail.com

        Score:

        insightful +
        unconstructive –

        Johnathon, you don’t ask the most relevant question for this, the Free Trade, Ultra Competitive trading world, based on a Globe challenged by over population, diminishing water and food sources, and the proliferation of nuclear weapons.
        You could answer: What percentage of the build of 220,000 homes will be exported? (Expect zero). How much Debt will Australia incur to fund the roads, hospitals, sewerage, schools, police etc? (Expect an increase). What percentage of the punters inhabiting the 220,000 homes will prove to be net Exporters of Goods and Services during the course of their lives? (Expect 1? 2? percent).
        Nothing proves the corruption of Australian politics more than this story. You have export replacement, immigrant based workforce, doing something for our unsustainable cities, being supplanted on the whims of our great import orientated mega businesses…

      2. James Walker

        James Walker

        logged in via Facebook

        Score:

        insightful +
        unconstructive –

        Melbourne is much the same – high quality land disappearing under buildings.
        It’s not necessary – we have lots of low quality land that we could happily pave over for houses and businesses. Further, if our cities were surrounded by a mile or 3 of desert, they’d be better protected from bushfires.
        We need to move inland.

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  • Why would BIG Oil ignore its own demise/

     

    So why do our leaders remain silent? Why does the US push for the truth to be disguised? The risks to a peaceful life are the same for everyone, rich or poor. Why would the great oil companies appear to be so dumb? I suggest they are in fact being extremely canny, and for their own ultimate benefit.

    1. With a sudden and ‘unexpected’ crunch on oil those who control the supply will become powerful forces on the world stage. Countries will be eager to dance their tune. These corporations will, in short, be capable of having such a disproportionate influence on the world that they would be able, over time, to become the major political and economic power on the globe.

    2. If this seems far-fetched, consider the extent to which a medium-sized country would alter its laws in almost every field to maintain their supply of oil.

    3. Then consider that most of this oil comes from Siberia and the Middle East, and from countries that have very different agendas to ours;

    4. and that neither India nor China have significant quantities of oil. Both will become more susceptible to any pressure the suppliers may wish to exert.

    5. Also ask yourself, why is big oil the major owner of alternate energy technology patents and startups? This ensures control over their hegemony.

    6. This has been a long-range plan witnessed by the permanent US presence in Iraq and Afghanistan that is there to ensure the interests of their oil companies are preserved under any future scenario.

    In other words, denial that there is a problem until the last moment ensures that a few corporations will exercise long-term political and financial control over the globe and everyone on it. Its not about money, its about hegemony and power!

    If we were prepared for the crunch then these corporations would lose much of their potential to control the world.

    They will form a world government, or at the least become the world policeman, using their control of a limited resource as the ultimate weapon.

    Scarce oil in an addicted world is the tool of rulership.

    John James

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  • Climate sceptics are on big-oil payroll

     

    In a hard-hitting report, which appears to confirm environmentalists’ suspicions that there is a well-funded opposition to the science of climate change, Greenpeace accuses the funded groups of “spreading inaccurate and misleading information” about climate science and clean energy companies.

    “The company’s network of lobbyists, former executives and organisations has created a forceful stream of misinformation that Koch-funded entities produce and disseminate. The propaganda is then replicated, repackaged and echoed many times throughout the Koch-funded web of political front groups and thinktanks,” said Greenpeace.

    “Koch industries is playing a quiet but dominant role in the global warming debate. This private, out-of-sight corporation has become a financial kingpin of climate science denial and clean energy opposition. On repeated occasions organisations funded by Koch foundations have led the assault on climate science and scientists, ‘green jobs’, renewable energy and climate policy progress,” it says.

    The groups include many of the best-known conservative thinktanks in the US, like Americans for Prosperity, the Heritage Foundation, the Cato institute, the Manhattan Institute and the Foundation for research on economics and the environment. All have been involved in “spinning” the “climategate” story or are at the forefront of the anti-global warming debate, says Greenpeace.

    Koch Industries is a $100bn-a-year conglomerate dominated by petroleum and chemical interests, with operations in nearly 60 countries and 70,000 employees. It owns refineries which process more than 800,000 barrels of crude oil a day in the US, as well as a refinery in Holland. It has held leases on the heavily polluting tar-sand fields of Alberta, Canada and has interests in coal, oil exploration, chemicals, forestry, and pipelines.

    The majority of the group’s assets are owned and controlled by Charles and David Koch, two of the four sons of the company’s founder. They have been identified by Forbes magazine as the joint ninth richest Americans and the 19th richest men in the world, each worth between $14-16bn.

    Koch has also contributed money to politicians, the report said, listing 17 Republicans and four Democrats whose campaign funds got more than $10,000from the company.

    Greenpeace accuses the Koch companies of having a notorious environmental record. In 2000 the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) fined Koch industries $30m for its role in 300 oil spills that resulted in more than 3m gallons of crude oil leaking intro ponds, lakes and coastal waters.

    “The combination of foundation-funded front groups, big lobbying budgets, political action campaign donations and direct campaign contributions makes Koch Industries and the Koch brothers among the most formidable obstacles to advancing clean energy and climate policy in the US,” Greenpeace said.

    Top 10 Koch beneficiaries 2005-2008

    Mercatus center: ($9.2m received from Koch grants 2005-2008) Conservative thinktank at George Mason University. This group suggested in 2001 that global warming would be beneficial in winter and at the poles. In 2009 they recommended that nothing be done to cut emissions.
    Americans for Prosperity. ($5.17m). Have built opposition to clean energy and climate legislation with events across US.
    Institute for Humane Studies ($1.96m). Several prominent climate sceptics have positions here, including Fred Singer and Robert Bradley.
    Heritage Foundation ($1.62m). Conservative thinktank leads US opposition to climate change science.
    Cato Insitute ($1.02m). Thinktank disputes science behind climate change and questions the rationale for taking action.
    Manhattan Institute ($800,000). This institute regularly publishes climate science denials.
    Washington legal foundation ($655,000) Published articles on the business threats posed by regulation of climate change.
    Federalist Society for Law ($542,000) advocates inaction on global warming
    National Center for Policy Analysis ($130,000) NCPA disseminates climate science scepticism.
    American Council on Science and Health ($113,800) Has published papers claiming that cutting greenhouse emissions would be detrimental to public health.

    ARE WE SURPRISED?

    John James

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  • Have we reached peaks already

    Dear Friends, I reccomend two reports that will give an overview of our current situation. They are right on track for today! If you are short on time, at least glance at the graphs.       

    The first was written a couple of years ago by Paul Chefurka, entitled World Energy and Population Trends to 2100.        

    He establishes the direct correspondance between available energy and population. Energy is everything that comes from oil, gas, coal and so on. As we seem to have already reached the peak in oil, the major and most versatile energy source on this planet, are we rapidly approaching the peak in population?      

    He concludes that        the human race is now out of time. We are staring at hard limits on our activities and numbers, imposed by energy constraints and ecological damage. There is no time left to mitigate the situation, and no way to bargain or engineer our way out of it. It is what it is, and neither Mother Nature nor the Laws of Physics are open to negotiation.      

    We have come to this point so suddenly that most of us have not yet realized it. While it may take another twenty years for the full effects to sink in, the first impacts from oil depletion will be felt within five years. Given the size of our civilization and the extent to which we rely on energy in all its myriad forms, five years is far too short a time to accomplish any of the unraveling or re-engineering it would take to back away from the precipice. At this point we are committed to going over the edge into a major population reduction.
             

    The Graphs are clear and graphic (no pun intended!)
           http://www.countercurrents.org/chefurka201109.htm      

    The second was written 14 years ago by Richard Duncan, on The Olduvai Theory:        Sliding Towards a Post-Industrial Stone Age             

    With one amazing drawing he concludes      that the life expectancy of industrial civilization is approximately 100 years – that is, from 1930 to 2030 (as defined by energy production per capita). There are four postulates:
         1) The exponential growth of world energy production ended in 1970.
           2) Average energy production per capita will remain on a plateau from 1970 to 2008 (Remember the financial crisis?).
           3) The rate of change will go steeply negative from 2008.
           4) World population will decline to around 2bn souls by 2050.      

    http://dieoff.org/page125.htm                 
           and an analysis by Anatoly Karlin
    http://www.sublimeoblivion.com/2009/06/28/notes-olduvai/             

    The amazing thing is that his work was remarkably prescient. The precess that we are committed to (since the debacle at Copenhagen) is called overshoot and collapse. I have referred to many studies on this issue in earlier copies of FOOTPRINTS.        

    This process is intimately connected to Climate Change.

     John James

    Please forward this newsletter to  your friends and encourage them to join the mailing list at http://www.planetextinction.com/planet_extinction_newsletter_subscribe.htm  
        

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  • Collapse of the Greenland glaciers

     

    It would seem we are on the verge of a major tipping point in climate change, if we have not already reached it. The latest US Navy survey suggests there will be no sea ice left in the Arctic summer by 2016. This has been unprecedented within the entire record of human species.

    Is this the date we have to look forward to?

    The Greenland, Alaskan and West Antarctic ice sheets together hold about 25% of the fresh water on the planet. The effects of the collapse of either ice sheet would be huge. Once you lost one of these ice sheets, there’s no putting it back for thousands of years, if ever.

    If they disintegrate, sea level could rise nearly 20 meters, possibly in only one decade. This would swamp most cities and ports, as well a much of the best agricultural land. Where now 6 billion people? See Footprints #3.

     One reason is that Arctic temperatures are increasing at an average of 0.66°C per decade. If the global average is 2°C, then the arctic will be 4°C, and more over Greenland. The final deglaciation of Greenland will be triggered above 2.7°C local. In less than 30 years, there has been a 40% loss of arctic sea ice.

    Similarly the western Antarctica’s mass is disappearing at about 240 cubic kilometers per year. Depletion of ozone is adding to this problem for it has encouraged hotter winds to flow across the Antarctic, and this is already impacting on the Larsen ice mass.

    The global impact of 2°C rise in the graph shows a 55 meter rise. This is more than occurred in the Pliocene Era 3 million years ago when the northern hemisphere was up to 8 degrees hotter and the southern a couple of degrees colder.

    The rate accelerated in 2004. It holds 70% of Earth’s freshwater.

     

    The consequences of sea-level rise

    If the seas rise a modest 400mm 22% of coastal wetlands will be lost, and more when we include the likely human reaction to that change. A one meter sea-level rise would affect 6 million people in Egypt, with some 15% of agricultural land lost, 13 million in Bangladesh with 16% of the national rice production lost, and 72 million in China with tens of thousands of hectares of agricultural land. See Footnotes #2.

    The anticipated 7 meter sea rise will be far worse, and will directly affect 300-1,000 million people, some 15% of the world’s population. The ricochet will be far-reaching and incalculable.

     The decline of ice around the north pole seems to have sharply accelerated since 2003, raising fears that the region may have passed one of the major tipping points. As the warmer weather melts the ice it drives temperatures higher because the dark water absorbs nearly all the sun’s radiation. This could make global warming quickly run out of control.

     

    As oceans warm so the area covered by nutrient-poor water increases, making the oceans less friendly for algae or plankton. This reduces the amount of carbon the seas can absorb. The threshold for the almost complete failure of algae is about 500 ppm of carbon. At our present rate of growth we will reach this level in about 40 years.

    Reduction in Antarctic sea ice contributed to the 80% decline in krill since 1970. Krill is the foundation of the southern food chain. A temperature rise of 1.8°F would cause extensive coral bleaching. This will destroy critical fish nurseries in the Caribbean and Southeast Asia.

    The glaciers of the Tibetan plateau are vanishing by 50% every decade. They contain a sixth of the world’s total ice and feed many of Asia’s greatest rivers – including the Yangtze, the Indus, the Ganges, the Brahmaputra, the Mekong and the Yellow River. Such ice loss has profound implications for China, India and Pakistan which are dependant on rivers fed by them that will turn into trickles. Drinking and irrigation water will disappear. A billion people will be affected from the drying up of the rivers, increased droughts and sandstorms.

    In 1983 the five main glaciers in Columbia were expected to last at least 300 years. Recent measurements suggest they may disappear within 15, denying cities water and putting populations and food supplies at risk in these desert areas.

    Snow and rainfall in South America and the Caribbean are becoming less predictable and more extreme. The 2005 drought in the Amazon basin was the worst since records began.

    YOU can do a great deal to prevent further warming NOW
    Personally and Politically

     

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    Every item of information comes from the most recent and reputable scientific sources and published dialogues. As citations would impede the text, and as most may be looked up on the web, we decided not to fill the text with them.