Category: Climate chaos

The atmosphere is to the earth as a layer of varnish is to a desktop globe. It is thin, fragile and essential for preserving the items on the surface.150 years of burning fossil fuel have overloaded the atmosphere to the point where the earth is ill. It now has a fever. Read the detailed article, Soothing Gaia’s Fever for an evocative account of that analogy. The items listed here detail progress on coordinating 6.5 billion people in the most critical project undertaken by humanity. 

  • Economist warns Gillard on carbon price delay

     

    Professor McKibbin says the Prime Minister has it wrong and uncertainty is costing the Australian economy.

    “We need to have investment in energy infrastructure,” he said.

    “Companies are postponing that investment, that means that energy prices will be higher and in fact at some point there could be serious problems with delivery of energy on a consistent basis.”

     

    Policy under fire

     

    The Federal Government is yet to announce the full details of the climate change policy it will take to the election, but Ms Gillard has hinted that could involve a boost to alternative energy.

    The head of the Australian Youth Climate Coalition, Ellen Sandell, says the Prime Minister has made a mistake.

    “We saw that young people were moving away from Rudd after he shelved the emissions trading scheme, and then when Julia Gillard became Prime Minister, people looked to her and said is this a fresh start?” she said.

    “But her comments last night really worry us because it looks like it isn’t actually a fresh start, just another delay.”

    The Australian Conservation Foundation’s Tony Mohr says even a massive investment in renewable energy will not be enough to meet Australia’s emissions reduction targets.

    “We would need seven policies the size of the existing renewable energy target just to get to the 5 per cent reduction in our national greenhouse gas pollution,” he said.

    “We have a very pollution dependent economy and we need to be tackling all the areas in the economy when we’re tackling this problem. That means making sure that there’s rewards for companies who are doing the right thing to reduce Australia’s pollution but also there’s a price tag for companies who aren’t.”

    Carbon price or not, Australian businesses may soon be under more pressure to address climate change.

    Australian Ethical Investment and the Climate Institute have joined forces to launch the Climate Advocacy Fund.

    The institute’s business director, Julian Poulter, says the fund will target Australia’s biggest companies.

    He says the idea is to invest in these companies and then get shareholders to force them to change their ways.

    “The climate advocacy fund will invest broadly across the ASX200, and one of its objectives is to raise shareholder resolutions,” he said.

    “In fact we’ll be raising Australia’s first climate change shareholder resolution later this year.”

    Mr Poulter says the fund is the first of its kind in the world.

    Tags: business-economics-and-finance, environment, climate-change, government-and-politics, elections, federal-government, activism-and-lobbying, environmentally-sustainable-business, emissions-trading, federal-elections, australia

    First posted 14 minutes ago

  • Global emissions targets will lead to 4C temperature rise, say studies.

     

    “We’re looking at a level which is much more extreme and profoundly dangerous,” said Ruth Davis, chief policy adviser for Greenpeace. “It’s arguable the UN process has become dangerously cut adrift from the science of climate change.”

    The Department of Energy and Climate Change said that, based on national offers of emissions reductions made in Copenhagen, the United Nations Environment Programme (Unep) and other bodies had calculated that it was possible to meet the 2C target, although this would depend on the targets set beyond 2020.

    “There’s more work to do if we’re going to avoid a 2C temperature rise which is why we’re pushing the EU to cut its emissions by 30%,” said a DECC spokesman. “Keeping below 2C is still possible from the high end Copenhagen accord offers, but will require steeper action after 2020.”

    However, many experts said the much higher temperature-rise estimates were a cause for serious concern that emissions cuts proposed for Cancún were too low and not enough was being done to prepare for further cuts beyond 2020, even though there are still nearly six months of negotiations before the talks.

    “We’ve made progress but we’re clearly not headed where we need to be,” said Andrew Jones, co-director of Climate Interactive, which is backed by several universities including MIT. “No one is talking about changing any of the 2020 proposals, so we should be worried.” Climate Interactive’s model is also backed by a panel of experts including Prof Bob Watson, chief scientific advisor to the UK’s Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra), and a former head of the IPCC.

    The Climate Interactive Scoreboard, for which researchers check daily for updates in emissions or other targets which would reduce pollution such as reductions in energy intensity or increases in renewable energy, makes a medium-range prediction of a 3.9C increase in temperatures, with a range of 2.3-6.2C (4.2-11.1F), based on committed targets, and a more encouraging 2.9C (5.2F) average, with a range of 1.7-4.6C (3.1-8.5F) based on “potential” commitments suggested but not enacted by many nations.

    One of the major barriers to setting higher emissions cuts was a great many countries, including Canada and the EU, have said they do not want to increase their targets until the US sets significant reductions, which is proving hard for President Obama to achieve, said Davis.

    Climate Analytics and Ecofys, under the banner of Climate Action Tracker, estimate a range of 2.8-4.3C.

    The principal differences between the two calculations are that they use different models, and made different assumptions about what countries will do after their current targets expire, said Jones.

    In both cases, there has been no improvement to the forecast outcome since the experts assessed the prospects immediately after the Copenhagen conference.

    The predictions will be particularly worrying for many watchers because the 2C target was based on research which suggested that at that level there was only a low to medium risk of key changes to the conditions in which humans survive; however an update of the “burning embers diagram” by the authors, published last year by the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences in the US, suggested that at 2C there greater risk in all categories, including a significant to high risk to unique and threatened ecosystems, of extreme weather events and a global distribution of the worst threats.16 Dec 2009

     


     

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  • Gillard bids to revive Australia’s stalled carbon trading scheme

     

    Her call might also win support from the Greens, who said the stalled emissions trading scheme was flawed and not ambitious enough, while the opposition had labelled it a great big new tax, leading to policy paralysis.

    Industry and green groups welcomed Gillard’s comments.

    “It seems she wants to have a very open negotiation with the view to resolution so that’s definitely in investors’ interest,” said Nathan Fabian, CEO of the Investor Group on Climate Change that represents institutional investors with about $500bn under management.

    The carbon market will also welcome her renewed push in the hope that Australia become a major new player in a market worth $144bn last year, dominated by Europe’s emissions trading scheme.

     

    “We believe the Labor party’s backflip on the emissions trading scheme and its associated decline in the polls is a key reason we now have a new leader,” said WWF-Australia CEO, Greg Bourne.

    A WWF poll this week in four of the country’s critical marginal seats showed 70% of respondents were in support of an emissions trading scheme, WWF said.

     

    Former prime minister Rudd had made fighting climate change and a carbon trading scheme in particular, central to his administration.

    But he was widely seen as unable to properly explain and sell the complex carbon scheme to voters, who feared higher fuel and power prices, while miners feared shrinking profits and overseas rivals gaining a competitive edge.

    His support plunged in part because he decided to shelve the scheme in April after failing three times to get Senate support, disillusioning voters who wanted action on climate change.

  • Inquiry needed to assess impact of a changing climate on NSW beaches

    Media Release                                                  
    Inquiry needed to assess impact of a changing climate on NSW’s beaches
     
    The Greens will seek to send legislation that will grant property
    owners the right to build, without development approval, temporary sea
    walls on beaches as protection against rising sea levels to a
    Parliamentary Inquiry this week.
     
    “If this Bill goes ahead it will begin the fortification of our
    coastlines, with rock walls encroaching on to our most treasured beaches
    in the not-too-distant future,” said NSW Greens MLC Ian Cohen.
     
    “The implications of this legislation as well as the issues it’s trying
    to address are enormous and it mustn’t be rushed through the Parliament.
    Minister Sartor hasn’t even released guidelines with the Bill.
     
    “The Greens will be seeking to send the Coastal Protection and Other
    Legislation Bill to a Parliamentary Committee so that the full impacts
    of climate change and coastal inundation on NSW coastal communities and
    coastal ecosystems can be investigated. Recommendations can then also be
    made as to the best whole-of-government response.
     
    “A broader investigation into rising sea levels is urgently needed. The
    State Government is clearly failing to grasp the severity a changing
    climate is already having on our coastline.
     
    “Sea level rise and coastal inundation is occurring right now from
    Kingscliff in Northern NSW to the South Coast of NSW. Our office is
    being contacted by people who are literally watching the beaches in
    front of their properties disappear.
     
    “Planning for rising sea levels is one of the toughest things any
    government anywhere will have to do.
     
    “We need a whole-of-government approach, not one that pits neighbour
    against neighbour and beachfront dwellers against the rest of the
    community. Yet Minister Sartor’s preference is to rush a band aid
    solution through the Parliament by the end of the week.
     
     “The State Government is simply delaying the inevitable – that is
    implementing a policy of stage, planned retreat for communities affected
    by rising sea levels.
     
     “The short-term vision of this current State Government is on show
    once again. This legislation should be called the ‘Coastal Private
    Property Protection’ Bill due to its prioritisation of private property
    protection over public beaches,” said Mr Cohen.
     
    Further Information: Cate Faehrmann 02 9230 3305 or 0412 207 043
     
    Cate Faehrmann
    Adviser
    Greens MLC Ian Cohen
    NSW Parliament
    Macquarie St
    SYDNEY NSW 2000
    p +61 2 9230 3305 m +61 412 207 043

  • Cutting greenhouse gases will be no quick fix for our weather, scientists say

     

    The research suggests that increased floods and droughts could continue long after future efforts to stabilise temperature may succeed.

    Vicky Pope, head of climate change advice at the Hadley Centre, said: “We can’t say that if we manage to bring down our carbon dioxide emissions then we don’t need to worry any more. There will still be changes beyond that point.”

    A team led by Peili Wu used a computer model to analyse how the Earth’s water cycle could react to changes in future amounts of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere.

    It found that once carbon dioxide levels rise to a high level, even sharp reductions fail to prevent longlasting impacts on snow and rainfall.

    This is down to accumulated heat in the oceans, which dissipates slowly and drives changes in the water cycle as it does so.

    Writing in a paper to be published in the journal Geophysical Research Letters, the scientists say: “Our results suggest that relationships between precipitation and warming may significantly underestimate precipitation changes during periods of [greenhouse gas] stabilisation or reduction.

    “The inertia due to the accumulated heat in the ocean implies a commitment to changes long after stabilisation.”

    They add: “This effect must be taken into account when assessing the implications of various mitigation options for flooding, water supply, food production and human health.”

    The study simulated the effects of a steady rise in carbon dioxide levels until the equivalent atmospheric concentration topped 1,000ppm (parts per million).

    The current CO2 level is just over 390ppm, and most policies aimed at tackling climate change suggest the world should not exceed 450ppm-550ppm, though this would require significant curbs on carbon pollution.

    In the study, the scientists then rapidly brought the CO2 level back down to pre-industrial levels of around 280ppm.

    In practice, this would be impossible – without geo-engineering techniques that could actively remove it from the atmosphere – but the scientists wanted to see what would theoretically happen.

    The model showed that, while temperatures dropped sharply as CO2 was reduced, the disruption to precipitation continued for several decades.

    How the rainfall may change for a particular region is a more complicated question, though the scientists said their model suggested significant drying in South America, Southern Africa and Australia.

     

  • What went wrong for Kevin Rudd

     

    The title of David Marr’s June Quarterly Essay, Power Trip, points to some answers. Rudd began his maiden speech in federal politics with the words “Politics is about power.” Well, yes and no. Power is complex. It comes in many forms, from coercive power, with its threats and bribes, to the authority to give orders and expect to be obeyed, to the power to persuade people to see a situation as you do and agree with your line of action. And in liberal democracies like Australia, the power of any one political officeholder, even the prime minister, is limited. Marr quotes a shrewd old bureaucrat who has worked with a few prime ministers and wonders if Rudd really understands the way power works at the top. “He isn’t afraid to pick a fight, but doesn’t then behave like a prime minister: he involves himself so much; puts himself on the line so quickly; doesn’t exercise authority by keeping at a distance.”

    This is Rudd of “the buck stops with me,” who presents himself as the fixer of last resort of all the nation’s problems. This is the Rudd who rushed in to take the blame for all the problems of the insulation scheme, and whisked his notebook out of his top pocket to note down the names of worried insulators, reassuring them that there would be another phase of government largesse once the problems were sorted out. Why did he think he had to take all the blame? There were a few other candidates – like shonky small business operators. And no one really expects the PM to act as everyone’s local member, sorting out each person’s problems with this or that government scheme. But having promised something he then found he couldn’t deliver, and he only has himself to blame when he walks away and people are angry. There is a failure of judgement here as he promises too much and delivers too little, both in small things like the promise to the insulators and in large policy reversals like the emissions scheme. I am sure we will see a similar pattern in his attempt to fix the blame game in the nation’s hospital system.

    Implicit in these failures of judgement is a fantasy of concentration of power in the office of the PM. Bucks stop – or not – in many places in liberal parliamentary democracies like ours: in particular with individual ministers, with state premiers and, behind the scenes, with senior public servants. Marr shows convincingly that Rudd is driven by a genuine and deeply held commitment to making Australia a decent place for children to grow up in, a commitment forged in the hard years after his father died. Because his father was a tenant farmer, the family lost its home after he died, and he endured two terrible years as a boarder in a Marist College that instilled in him an icy hatred of the school. Rudd’s determination to make Australia a place in which kids didn’t have to suffer like he had was accompanied by a determination to re-make himself from a fussy little kid on the margins of other people’s lives into someone who was both unassailable and at the centre of things – which is where, he thinks, he now is.

    But the problem is that, having got there, his hold on power is slipping faster than anyone could have imagined. He has become, Marr argues, the choke point in the government, just as he was in Goss’s government when he ran the cabinet office. Rudd’s micromanagement and need to be on top of every detail also has to do with owning all the outcomes of government; he treats senior public servants as underlings, patronises caucus, ignores advice and bypasses his ministers, hogging all the big announcements for himself. And, in the judgement of a former staffer, “For all the effort he doesn’t come up with particularly interesting solutions to problems. His policy positions aren’t breakthrough, not particularly new or exciting. After all that work they are dull.”

    Because he thinks power is all about him, he seems unable to give others the space to be creative, which means that he can’t draw on the wisdom of those who are perhaps less clever than he is but have richer life experiences and more understanding of what makes others tick. And he seems to think that all he has to do is to make announcements. Power is also exercised through persuasion, and here he seems to have a major blind spot. As we know, he is very sensitive to voters’ opinions, but seems little interested in that of stakeholders. It is mind-boggling that his government decided to introduce a new mining tax without any prior consultation with the industry. Ambushing Australia’s most powerful industry in an election year is about as smart as Ben Chifley’s taking on the banks. Doesn’t he remember that the Australian Mining Industry Council’s advertising campaign killed the Hawke government’s commitment to national land rights legislation in the 1980s?

    The battle with the miners has erupted since Marr finished his essay, but it is in character with the man Marr presents, a man for whom power is a brittle exercise in control and who has little understanding of the limits of what one person can do, even when he holds the highest office in the land. Perhaps Rudd will read Marr’s essay and learn from it. He does have deep intellectual and emotional reserves. And with an unelectable opposition, we would all be grateful if he showed signs of a maturing political judgement. But the concluding scene does not bode well for such an outcome.

    Marr and Rudd have been chatting and Rudd asks him about the likely argument of the essay. Marr tells him that he is pursing the contradictions of his life, and wonders aloud if his government will go the way of Goss’s. Rudd explodes with controlled fury. It is, says Marr, the most vivid version of Rudd he has yet encountered. “Who is the real Kevin Rudd?” he writes. “He is the man you see when the anger vents. He’s a politician with rage at his core, impatient rage.” Marr’s essay is brilliant: it has all of the sharp observation and unexpected angles, and the lucid, supple prose, that make him such a fine interpreter of Australian political life. •

    Judith Brett is Professor of Politics at La Trobe University.

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