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  • Climate change ‘5pc threat to economy

    From News Limited 

    NEW modelling suggests climate change would knock five per cent off Australia’s economic output by 2100 if nothing is done to reduce greenhouse gases.

    Early findings of the modelling being produced jointly by CSIRO and ABARE forecast a rise in Australia’s average temperature of 3.5 degrees celsius under the same scenario.

    Climate scientists suggest temperature rises above two degrees celsius can trigger dangerous climate change.

    The results were presented by Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics chief economist Don Gunasekera at the economic research agency’s Outlook 2008 conference in Canberra.

    Dr Gunasekera said the project had not yet modelled the impact of mitigation and adaptation measures, such as emissions trading schemes.

    ”(Firstly) the idea for us was basically to get a snapshot of what the world would look like if don’t do anything,” Dr Gunasekera told the conference.

    The Global Integrated Assessment Model (GIAM) shows Australia’s economic output would fall 0.6 per cent by 2050 below the level it would be without climate change, and five per cent by 2100.

    Globally, economic output would plunge 11.4 per cent by 2100.

    GIAM shows the world’s concentration of greenhouse gases hitting an alarming 1,200 parts per million by 2100 without any action being taken.

    The forecast is at the upper end of scenarios mapped by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).

    Most global warming strategy aims at keeping concentrations below 550ppm to avoid catastrophic developments.

    The modelling showed the 1,200ppm level would increase the global average temperature by 3.4 degrees celsius above 2000 levels, and 3.5 degrees celsius in Australia.

    Among major nations, only India and Russia had higher forecasts.

    However, IPCC scenarios have shown temperature rises of up to 6.5 degrees under a 1,200ppm scenario.

    Dr Gunasekera said in pre-2050 years the GIAM modelling had been broadly consistent with IPCC predictions on temperatures and carbon concentrations.

    He said when completed, GIAM would become a useful tool for climate change policy analysis.

    "Such a framework will eventually allow us to assess the costs and benefits of climate change response policies in a more effective manner,” he said.

    The federal Treasury is also conducting economic modelling on climate change which is expected to be completed mid-year.

  • Water pricing an important conservation tool

    The Australian Conservation Foundation has welcomed the suggestion by Treasury Secretary Ken Henry that water pricing should reflect water scarcity.

    “Pricing is a critical part of managing demand for water,” said ACF’s Sustainable Australia Program Manager Monica Richter.

    “Any pricing regime should take account of social and environmental concerns.

    “A block tariff – where the more you use, the more you pay – would do this, while a flat tariff would not.

    “Pricing is one of the tools governments can use to reward people who do conserve water.

    “Water restrictions remain another important tool in managing the use of this precious resource,” she said.

  • Arctic fires will add to climate chaos

    A study published in late February has revealed that Arctic forests burned frequently in the last period of global warming, further increasing the load of carbon dioxide in the air and adding to the warming. The computer models used to predict the impact of climate chaos have not taken Arctic forest fires into account because they have been unknown in human history. With the Arctic ice-sheet melting faster than predicted by any of the models, it appears likely that the effect will be seen within decades.

    Read the background story  

  • Tide power makes waves

    The United States changed regulations last December to speed up the approval of wave and tide power generators. Many environmental groups are concerned about the impact on wildlife in the estuaries where the rush of new plants using different approaches are to be built. Projects involving dams are specifically excluded. Hydro-kinetic companies hope to supply as much as ten per cent of the United States electricity.

    Read the full story  

  • Armed conflict for Arctic seabed

    The Council of International Relations in the United States has warned that armed conflict is likely over the resources of the Arctic Seabed unless a framework for international negotiations is set up as soon as possible. The Arctic sea floor has been the subject of a number of claims and counter claims since 2001 when Russia applied to the United Nations for sovereignty over 460,000 square miles of the resource rich area. The combination of spiralling resource prices and the disappearance of sea ice, has made it viable to mine resources that have been buried under ice for millenia. Britain, Canada, the United States and Scandinavian countries are also claiming large areas of the Arctic Ocean. As reported previously on The Generator, similar claims are being made over the Antarctic Ocean and large parts of the continent.

    Read the background story

    Other Generator stories  

    UK Claims Antarctic sea-floor 

    Antarctic melt speeds up 

  • Tide power makes waves

    "I want to extend our company’s thanks for this proposal," Kevin Bannister, Vice President for Business Development, Finavera Renewables told FERC when it proposed expedited pilot licenses in October.

    "We think this is really a very good first step towards creating the kind of environment that our technologies need in order to get our devices into the water [for testing]."

    FERC defines hydrokinetics as energy from flowing waters, not involving a dam. Tidal, wave, current and river energy plans have all emerged as categories in FERC’s hydrokinetic efforts and in some circles, hydrokinetics is being considered the wave of the future, even for places without waves.

    An Idaho study for the U.S. Department of Energy estimated there may be 150,000 sites for wave energy development in the United States. Harnessing natural water motion energy could be a key piece of America’s future energy puzzle.

    "We believe a reliable and robust electricity system will be the result of a balanced and diversified portfolio," said Roger Bedard of the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI). "Our studies show that hydrokinetics has the long-term potential of providing about 10 percent of our current U.S. electricity consumption," Bedard said.

    As of February 4, 2008, 47 permits had been issued for ocean, wave and tidal projects and 41 were pending. The process has gone on largely under the radar, with some communities expressing surprise at discovering that their waters have been claimed under preliminary permits. A FERC preliminary permit acts like a mining claim, giving the first application exclusive rights to study the area for three years. The permits also give preference to the applicant for FERC conventional hydro licenses, which typically last 30-50 years.

    In 2008, the focus of hydrokinetics has shifted from the ocean to rivers, especially the Mississippi River, where tens of thousands of generating devices are proposed under preliminary permits. There have been 40 in-river permits issued and 55 more pending. Half the preliminary issuances have come in early 2008.

    Proposals include harnessing the Niagara River, the channels between the Florida Keys and a plan to give a European-developed technology for harnessing currents its first U.S. test. That plan claims more than 1000 square miles of the open ocean off Florida’s Atlantic Coast to try to generate power from the flow of the Gulf Stream.

    Alaska has been a hot spot for river preliminary permit proposals, with preliminary permits filed on the Yukon, Kobuk, Tanana, and Kuskok Rivers. Recently the Alaska Power & Telephone Company announced that it intends to file for a pilot license on the Yukon River that would bring power to the city of Eagle, located halfway between the Pacific Ocean and the Arctic Circle, near the Canadian border. While the preliminary permits anticipate generating plants with thousands of in-river devices, this plan is much more modest.

    "During the pilot phase of the Project a single turbine with two side-by-side shrouded runners producing 100 kilowatts of electrical power operating in a river velocity of 5.3 knots while being moored to an anchor on the river bottom will be installed," the application states. A pilot license allows a developer to hook up to the grid for a period of five years, and is restricted to small, experimental proposals. A FERC conventional license has no size restrictions. The Alaskan plans calls for a conventional FERC license at the end of the five-year pilot project period.

    The issuance of large numbers of preliminary permits, however, has irked some environmental regulators.

    A filing by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) challenges FERC’s standing to issue pilot licenses before applicants have complied with federal laws such as the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) and the Endangered Species Act

    "Issuing licenses in incremental stages is inconsistent with FERC’s obligations under these and other statutes, and could confuse and frustrate license applicants. Incrementally building the conditions in a license is also antithetical to FERC’s goals of shortening the overall regulatory process and providing certainty to potential hydrokinetic licensees and clarity to the public," the NOAA filing states.

    At this point, much of the Oregon Coast has been claimed. Off Fort Bragg, and Eureka California, a competition is to be held for different experimental devices by the Pacific Gas and Electric Company.

    Multiple FERC hydrokinetic permits are being issued daily for what can be thousands of devices in each river application.

    On Febriary 13, 2008, FERC issued a preliminary permit to a limited partnership for study of the Mississippi River in Mississippi County, Missouri, and Alexander County, Illinois, despite objections to the process from those states. That project would consist of 4,100 proposed 20-kilowatt in-river Free Flow generating units having a total installed capacity of 82 megawatts.

    "Hydrokinetic technologies, with their great promise and potential to harness abundant supplies of renewable power by using ocean waves, tides and currents and in-river flows, fit that bill. I am pleased to be a member of a Commission that has adopted a proactive approach to encourage the development of hydrokinetic technologies," Moeller said.