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  • Hazelwood: Australia’s dirtiest power station in nation with the world’s dirtiest power industry Posted: 12 Apr 2015 08:04 PM PDT

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    Hazelwood: Australia’s dirtiest power station in nation with the world’s dirtiest power industry

    Posted: 12 Apr 2015 08:04 PM PDT

    This coming Thursday 16 April a 12.30pm lunchtime rally on the steps of Melbourne’s parliament house will kick off a campaign to put the replacement of Australia’s dirtiest coal-fired power station back on the political agenda.

    Recently-elected Victorian Greens MP Ellen Sandell that afternoon will make a statement in Parliament, calling on the government to replace Hazelwood with clean energy and to support a community-led transition plan for mine rehabilitation and job creation.

    Sandell says: “Labor promised to close Hazelwood in 2010 but now they are sitting on their hands. Not even the devastating mine fire last year has compelled them to act. No government can claim to have a credible climate change policy unless it has a plan to shut down coal-fired power.”

    In 2010, then Labor premier John Brumby, in explaining his policy for a phased close-down of Hazelwood, told ABC radio listeners:

    …either you believe in closing Hazelwood or you don’t, and I do. And so what I announced yesterday was a staged closure of Hazelwood with the first two units – they have 8 units, it’s the dirtiest power station in Australia, most commentators by the way if, you’ve read the Financial Review this morning they would say it’s probably the dirtiest anywhere in the world – and I’ve put forward a plan that we will have a staged closure of it.

    The need to move quickly to replace dirty coal with clean renewable energy and jobs was highlighted by a new report from Oxford University’s Stranded Assets Programme, which identifies the 100 global power companies most at risk from growing pressure to shut highly polluting coal plants.

    The analysis, produced to help investors assess the risk of major financial losses, also found Hazelwood majority owner GDF Suez was third in the list of most polluting coal station fleets in the world.

    The report identified the most-polluting, least-efficient and oldest “sub-critical” coal-fired power stations. It found 89% of Australia’s coal power station fleet is sub-critical, “by far” the most carbon-intensive sub-critical fleet in world.

    The International Energy Agency calculates that one in four of these sub-critical plants must close within five years, if the world’s governments are to keep their pledge to limit global warming to 2C.  This means that 22% of Australia’s coal power station fleet must close within five years if we are to play an equitable part in keeping to government pledges to limit global warming to 2C.  [Within the IEA’s carbon budget frame which has a high risk of exceeding the specified 2-degree warming target.]

    How can Australia’s climate action movement respond, and what actions and campaigns would be a commensurate response?

    A recent report on “Australia’s top 10 climate polluters” released by the Australian Conservation Foundation, found that just a handful of companies are responsible for nearly one-third of our nation’s greenhouse pollution through their production and consumption of energy.

    Worse, many of these companies, rather than accepting the realities and pragmatically changing their investment choices and business practices, are applying pressure on governments to shackle the economy to last century’s energy staples, coal and gas, contrary to the global trends and signals.
    The names of the 10 biggest polluters are not surprising. The inglorious rollcall includes household name energy retailers such as Energy Australia, AGL and Origin. Global mining company Rio Tinto makes the cut, as does oil and gas miner Woodside and aluminium producer Alcoa. There are also lesser known entrants such as GDF Suez, which runs the Hazelwood brown coal power plant in Victoria, and Queensland government-owned Stanwell and CS Energy.

    The case for campaigning now on coal power plants is strong.

    • The relatively small Anglesea power station in Victoria was built to supply power to a nearby aluminium production facility, but with the closure of that plant the power station is not needed. The current owners say they will not continue to operate it, the local community is strongly of the view that it should be closed, and any new operator could be denied a licence transfer by the Victorian government.
    • Hazelwood is distinguished by being old, inefficient, and dirty. Based on emissions intensity, it is the third-dirtiest coal power station in the world and the dirtiest in Australia, releasing around 16 million tonnes of greenhouse gases annually, almost three per cent of total Australian greenhouse emissions.  The Hazelwood majority owner, GDF Suez, owns the third-most polluting coal-power station fleet in the world.
    • Hazelwood and Anglesea are  surplus to requirements: The Australian energy market regulator, says there is 7.65–8.95 gigawatts of surplus capacity across the national market, equivalent to more than Hazelwood and Anglesea power stations.  It has also identified up to 2.2 gigawatts of brown coal generation that is no longer required in Victoria in 2015, which is greater than Hazelwood’s and Anglesea’s combined capacity.
    • A steady stream of local jobs can be created in the Latrobe Valley with the rehabilitation of mines and decommissioning of plant, which will require a significant workforce stretching well over a decade.  A recent valuable report has been done by Environment Victoria on mine rehabilitation. A large-scale and accelerated mine rehabilitation programme has community support, according to a poll reported in the “Latrobe Valley Express” on 13 November last year. Union leaders say the state government could unlock job creation in the Latrobe Valley if it forced operators to fast-track rehabilitation disused mines.
    • Dirty coal stations and uncertainty about the Renewable Energy Target are crowding out renewable energy and are acting as a disincentive to new large-scale renewable investment.
    • Hazelwood power station and mine are a health hazard to local residents, exemplified by the autumn 2014 mine fire. The owners of Hazelwood have abused their social licence and forfeited the right to profit from a power station that is now a major health hazard – both to local people and to all peoples who face the uncertainties of living in a hotter and more extreme climate.

    In a radio discussion, Latrobe Valley union leader Luke van der Meulen told Radio National:

    I think the debate about whether the closure is going to occur is over and what we’ve really got to do now is look at the impact on the workers in the community. And what we’re really saying is [that] on this occasion, as different to last time when they privatised the industry, we want the community and the unions to be involved at the table, involved in the discussions. And the decision-making… when they privatised the industry we were saying then that there needs to be replacement industries in the valley. We were talking about wind and solar then. And if the national and State governments had have got off their behinds then, then we could have had a whole range of different industries in the Valley that could help us out of this situation. These can be done, but there needs to be some real effort at a State and national level and that’s not really being seen at all at the moment…

  • Could NSW be facing a second Legislative Council election?

    « Does Electronic Voting Increase the Donkey Vote? | Main | Legislative Council Count Updates »

    April 08, 2015

    Comments

    Mr Green I love your column. It is very detail and informative. However I believe you didn’t fully complete the reporting task, by concluding some certainties, as position now stands.

    Liberal are assured of 9 and CDP (Fred Nile) assured of 2. Last seat undecided and is between Liberal and Animal Justice, as you projected.

    With Liberal now assured a minimum of 20 seats ie 11 + 9 plus with Fred Nile 2, Liberal party will no longer need to depend upon the support of two minor parties, but just Fred Nile.

    If Liberal win the last seat, then they would have 21 and Liberal party could pass Bills with one further vote ie either Fred Nile or Animal Justice or Shooters party.

    It is my view, this summary should be reported, leaving the public the need to drawing any inference

    COMMENTS: Your last point is wrong as if the Coalition win 10 seats then the Animal Justice Party will not be elected. If the Coalition were prepared to give up the Legislative Council Presidency to Fred Nile, then 10 seats would give the government 21 seats and a majority on the floor of the Council. If the Liberals keep the presidency as they have indicated they will, then whether the Coalition wins nine or ten seats is a matter of whether they need one or two Christian Democrats to back legislation. The two CDP members tend to vote together on most issues.

    I went through all the scenarios on the seats in this post. http://blogs.abc.net.au/antonygreen/2015/03/the-battle-for-the-nsw-legislative-council.html

    Great analysis. Why do the Coalition does less well on Absentee votes? Are they homebodies and vote at home? Are Green voters wandering the state? Any insights?

    COMMENT: Absent votes are cast by people outside their electorate on polling day. This is a more likely phenomena in city electorates, especially inner-city electorate, than it is for country electorates. Simple distance tells you a country voter is less likely to drive out of their electorate on polling day than a city electorate. With fewer country absent votes, the Coalition vote is always lower as a proportion of absent votes than polling day votes.

    It could also be argued that the said voters were not disadvantaged as they could have gone to the hundreds of pre poll centres around the state to caste their votes, even if ivote system was not working. T

    To prove a disadvantage and order fresh elections would be very difficult legally speaking one would think.

    COMMENT: That is not right. The case the Court would consider is whether the candidate was disadvantaged, not the voter. It is a question of whether an error was made in the conduct of the election sufficient to bring the result into question.

    It is an uncontested fact that 19,000 voters were presented with ballot papers that by error excluded a group voting square for two groups. That error amounts to a disadvantage to the affected candidates. Based on those facts, the question the Court of Disputed Returns would consider is whether that accepted error affected the result.

    “it would surely be in the interests of the Coalition to give up its tenth member in a close contest”
    Antony I was following up to this point and then you lost me. How could the Liberals “give up” a member as an outcome of an AJP court challenge?

    COMMENT: Animal Justice can petition the Court of Disputed Returns to have its candidate declared elected. It would be in the party’s interest to have its member declared elected rather than to call for a fresh election. The Court has the power to vary the names of the elected members.

    If the Court finds that the result was affected by the iVote error, and if Animal Justice ask for their member to be declared elected in place of the tenth Coalition member, the Coalition might agree to that solution rather than risk a fresh election.

    The Court’s role is to rule on whether the names returned on the writ are correct. It can let the writ stand as returned, it can void the writ and require a new election, or it can vary the names of the members declared elected.

    Hi Antony,

    Great column. The LC is the ‘real’ election in this whole process, given the likelihood of Baird’s re-election.

    Q: Does the President of the LC have a deliberative vote and/or a casting vote?

    It seems bizarre that the Libs would keep Harwin in there if giving Fred the LC Presidency would give them a majority.

    Q2: Also, do you see iVoting expanding for furture elections?

    COMMENT: The President only has a casting vote, so votes are decided from amongst the 41 members on the floor unless there is a member absent from the vote.

    The Presidency brings with it a range ceremonial and diplomatic advantages that governments find useful. In addition, the Coalition would have to vote Nile into the chair and I am sure that Labor and the Greens would have great fun at the Coalition’s expense if it were to do so. Voting Nile into the most senior office holder position of the parliament would attract criticism than relying on him for his vote on legislation.

    I am not sure iVote will expand. Some are of the view it has expanded too far. It is designed as a replacement for postal voting. In my view there should be more attention to electronic voting to replace pre-poll than in expanding internet voting.

    Thanks Antony for the explanation, but yes I am aware that the AJP candidates can claim to be disadvantaged but the burden of proof rest on them and they must prove that the lack of ivotes significantly disadvantaged their vote tally when other alternatives were available.

    As for Coalition giving up its 10 th seat, I doubt that would happen, parties rarely concede hard won seats like that. It will be interesting to see how this issues turns out.

    COMMENT: There is no question of ‘other alternatives’. It is a fact that 19,000 voters were given a defective iVote electronic ballot paper. By whatever method they choose to vote, a voter is entitled to be given the correct ballot paper, and if they have been given an incorrect ballot paper, then there is an error in the conduct of the poll. An example of this was The Entrance judgment in 1991 when enough voters to affect the result were given absent ballots for Gosford by mistake.

    The iVote error will be a fact before the Court, not a matter of dispute. It will be for the Animal Justice Party to plead and the Court to decide whether the error affected the result. If the Court finds it did affect the result, then it will be for the parties before the court to plead on what action should be taken.

    The Court can vary the names returned on the writ, or it can void the election.

    In the circumstances where the Court first ruled the case on affecting had been proved, what would the Coalition plead? It can plead the error should be ignored, it can plead to vary the writ and give up a seat to the Animal Justice Party, or it can plead that the election be voided and a new election for 21 members be held. I very much doubt the Coalition would want any part of a fresh election.

    Hi Antony,

    I was under the impression the President of the NSW LC had a deliberative vote, and that 22 votes are required to pass legislation. Wikipedia seems to agree, though I accept it’s not a rigorous source. Has this changed recently?

    COMMENT: Section 22I of the NSW Constitution states that “All questions arising in the Legislative Council shall be decided by a majority of the votes of the Members present other than the President or other Member presiding and when the votes are equal the President or other Member presiding shall have a casting vote.” The section has never been changed so my conclusion is that Wikipedia is wrong.

    Antony, surely the existence of Section 22A(4) specifically dealing with running a separate Council election in this potential circumstance shows the Parliament recognises that the aspiration expressed in Section 22A(3) can’t always be met? Besides which, a joint election was indeed held as required, and if not for the error the issue would never have come up.

    Why do you think the Libs would be so concerned that they wouldn’t manage to replicate the present result on a re-run? I wouldn’t have thought it at all likely they would end up worse off than 9 seats, surely, after their big election win, so why not have a crack at the 10th if a fresh election is the only way to get it? It’s not like they’d be paying the bill.

    Electoral errors sure are giving us all something to discuss these past few years!

    COMMENT: Why am I so sure? Because I asked. The Coalition do not want another election. Under no circumstances do they want the functioning of parliament held up followed by an election where the only issue is privatisation of electricity and the fate of the government is not at risk. All this in an environment where Federal politics might be intruding at the same time. The government has elected the nine members it needed, ten would be nice but not at the risk of an election.

    Antony, great writing again, I wish there were an economics writer with your ability to explain complicated things but stay politically neutral at the same time.

    Now for the important question: if elected, will the Animal Justice Party member have to sit next to the Shooters and Fishers? Won’t that be fun?

    It was my understanding that an elector could change the iVote the cast up to polling day. With the publicity around the error, surely anyone who meant to vote for the two parties erroneously not above the line could have gone in and changed their vote. I think this will also be considered by the court.

    COMMENT: it is no doubt a matter that will be considered by the Court if there is a petition against the result.

    Great debate. A re-election? The whole Legislative Council or like a by-election, only Lib/Nat, Animal Justice and No Land Tax?? I would hope ALP voters in this scenario would vote Liberal, but who knows given the Greens persistent results! What about banning preference distributions among parties, they only be considered if the voter takes that choice to markl preferences?

    COMMENT: As in the WA Senate case, a new election would mean all positions, not some positions. Preferences controlled by parties have already been eliminated for the NSW Legislative Council and the only preferences that count are those filled in by voters themselves.

    Hi Antony. Can you confirm how BTL votes in NSW will be allocated against the quota system……looking at the greens who have 2.13 quota and say may go to 2.20 quota once BTL is included…..when they fill the 2.0 quota how do the 0.07 BTL included in the vote get allocated and potentially lost as a further preference? (I think I may have worded this clumsily but hopefully you get my meaning!)
    thanks.

    COMMENT: The total first preference vote for the lead Green candidate will be totaled. This will be in excess of two quotas. A random sample of votes with further preferences equal to the size of the vote surplus beyond one quota will be taken. These sampled ballot papers will be distributed at full value.

    This will put the second Green candidate over the surplus. A random sample of the ballots transferred from Candidate 1 equal to the new surplus will then be taken from the transferred ballots. This sample will then be distributed as preferences. Note that only the bundle transferred will be examined. First preference votes for the second Green candidate are not examined to determine preferences of the surplus.

    The transferred ballot papers from the second surplus calculation will now mostly be with the third Green candidate. If distributed, all votes with the third Green candidate will be distributed at full value.

    All the sampling is done from votes with a ‘1’ for the lead Green candidate. About 53% of candidate 1’s ballot papers will be sampled and transferred at full value. That will be about 53% of single ATL votes, 53% of ATL votes with preferences, and 53% of BTL votes.

    The system is different from the Senate. Only the last bundle of votes received is examined for surplus to quota preferences, not all votes held by the candidate. In NSW the transfer value is used to determine how many ballot papers will be random sampled and transferred at full value. In the Senate all ballot papers are transferred but vote value equal to the total ballot papers times the transfer value.

    Hi Antony

    Fascinating analysis as always.

    Based on what you predict, it appears that AJP could come within 0.04 quotas of the 10th Lib candidate (0.49 to 0.45). However, I thought that this would be around 7000 votes – not the 700 you’ve stated? (Quota is I think about 190,000)

    On that analysis, surely they would need to be less than 0.01 of a quota from the next best candidate to have a real chance in a legal challenge?

    COMMENT: My estimate in the update is around 0.005 quotas at the end of the count after preferences

    Hi Antony,

    Thanks for the great work. Why couldn’t the 19000 people or if necessary all who used ivote be ordered to recast their vote? Then it ensures their vote counts without the massive cost and complexity of a whole new election.

    COMMENT: Because the law doesn’t allow that to happen.

    I notice in one of your comments above that only a sample of votes are used to distribute preferences, as opposed to all, as in the Senate. How is this sample chosen? It would need to be a very representative sample, as there are pockets of great difference across the state.

    I can envisage that such sampling could cause one party (AJ perhaps) an advantage, or disadvantage, depending on where they came from.

    And I love you work. Thanks Antony.

    COMMENT: All ballot papers are data entered. A computer random number generator chooses the sample.

    Antony, my feeling is that if there is a re-vote/re-election for the Legislative Council, it is likely that iVote will be a higher proportion of the voting method used than it was in the original effort.

    I haven’t seen an analysis of how iVote votes may differ from other voting methods, as for instance you gave for how absentee votes differ from in-electorate votes. If iVotes do in fact show a different pattern, could you please tell us so, and tell us how they differ?

    Thanks.

    COMMENT: First, I don’t think there will be a re-vote. The result does not look that close. There are also other options to be considered first. For instance, if the 19,000 iVotes were excluded from the count and the preference distribution done again, then if the result was the same then the result would be let stand.

    An increase in pre-poll, iVote or any other type of voting doesn’t affect the result. It just changes the time and place when a vote is cast. People look at whether a party is advantaged or not by vote type, but the trends are just a difference, not necessarily an advantage.

    Second, I haven’t looked at the iVote from the state election, but iVote at previous by-election had seen a higher proportion of Coalition votes being cast.

    As I pointed out in a previous post, there appears to be an advantage to parties on the left hand end of the iVote Legislative Council ballot paper. http://blogs.abc.net.au/antonygreen/2015/04/does-electronic-voting-increase-the-donkey-vote.html

    Thanks Antony, would the court be swayed by the fact that the error was corrected after two days and that anyone who wanted to change their iVote could do so up until election day? The publicity the error received, including that the vote could be changed up until polling day, should mean that anyone who mis-cast their vote had ample opportunity to correct it.

    COMMENT: All of those issues are matters that could be raised in a court case if their is a petition against the result.

    iVote is an already abused system as there are many people who use it as a means of avoiding voting on the day – which is not what it is there for.

    I saw many people posting on social media that they used iVote (and Pre-poll) as a means of not going on the day. When challenged their only argument was “..who cares – at least we voted…”.

    COMMENT: People voted one way rather than another. How rigorously did the EC question people who voted pre-poll on whether they could attend a polling place on election day? Once you had to sign a declaration about being infirm, pregnant, x-miles from a polling place etc. It’s exactly the same issue with iVote.

    For different reasons I think that access to iVote should be limited. I think greater emphasis should be given to using electronic methods to collect pre-poll votes, which allows people to get their electronic voting jollies fulfilled that way..

    In the end people voted by the method they found most convenient, and I’m happy to tolerate that even if you view it as ‘abuse’. I’ve seen the UK system where if you can’t attend your fixed polling place on election day, then tough, you can’t vote.

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  • Legislative Council Count Updates ANTONY GREEN

    « Could NSW be facing a second Legislative Council election? | Main

    April 08, 2015

    Comments

    Why do we persist with this quota system for the Legislative Council and the Senate? Why not simply allow each voter to vote for the number of candidates that the LC or Senate is to elect? So, for the Senate, each voter from each state votes for 12 candidates. (each voter from each territory votes for 2 ). For the NSW LC each voter would vote for 21 (half) or 42 (full). The 12 senate candidates or the 21/42 LC candidates with the highest number of votes are elected. fair and simple.

    COMMENT: What you are describing is block system, a voting method that became useless as soon as formalised parties appeared. It used to result in one party winning all vacancies. It was abandoned for the Senate in 1919, though an equivalent preferential bot non-quota system was used until 1949. So after the 1946 election the Chifey government had a majority of 33-3. What would be the point of having a Senate if it could end up with one party having a 76-0 majority. Or in the case of the Scullin government in 1929 or Cook government in 1913, have a government facing a massive opposition majority in the Senate.

    Antony, great coverage and commentary as usual.

    Much of the calculation of where the AJP will end up relies on predictions of how many Green (and other minor party, e.g. No Parking Meters, Bicycles, VE) voters preference them. What history do we have to rely on about this percentage?

    You have indicated you expect it will be less than 50% following the Greens HTV. Why?

    COMMENT: Because in the past barely 25% of Green voters have indicated any upper house preference, meaning individual flows are even weaker. I don’t expect that rate to more than double at the 2015 election.

    I did some analysis of what preferences existed at the 2011 election in the following post. http://blogs.abc.net.au/antonygreen/2011/08/measuring-the-performance-of-the-new-nsw-legislative-council-electoral-system.html

    Overall at past elections, as the last candidate of each party was excluded, 80-85% of preferences exhausted. I don’t expect that rate to be much different in 2015.

    Off topic: It seems to me electing someone for an eight-year term on a statewide “list” isn’t very democratic or accountable no matter who wins.

    After Victoria went to an election tying the whole of the Legislative Council to the term of the of the Legislative Assembly, using STV to vote for five MLCs each in eight districts, just as Western Australia elects six MLCs each in six districts, has New South Wales or South Australia ever considered switching to a similar model as Victoria and Western Australia have?

    Has there been any move to establish an elected LC in Queensland of late?

    Your analysis is appreciated by professional and amateur psephologists everywhere.

    COMMENT: Queensland requires a referendum to re-create a Legislative Council. NSW and South Australia would both require referendums to end the staggered terms. South Australia has discussed the subject without getting anywhere. NSW moved from four rotations to three in 1978 by referendum, and three rotations to two in 1991 by referendum. There has been no proposal yet to go further with change.

    Antony, where have the preliminary BTL figures come from? I can’t find them on the NSWEC website.

    COMMENT: Some data is now on the website.

    Hi Antony,
    Great information however I have a question slightly off topic. Penny Sharp ran for a lower house seat and was defeated. How can she now get a seat in the upper house?

    COMMENT: Both Penny Sharpe and Steve Whan resigned from Legislative Council seats that did not face election on March 28. When the new parliament sits, both vacancies have to be filled. There is nothing to stop Sharpe being re-appointed to the vacancy created by her resignation.

    This has happened in the past. Fred Nile resigned from the Council in 2004 to contest the Senate. When he was unsuccessful he was re-appointed to the vacancy his resignation created.

    If there was to be a re-run of the LC election, due to this (minor error), what would it cost the State of NSW?

    COMMENT: A lot!

    It seems very strange that NLT would be polling at 7.4% in BTL votes? Why would the vote for NLT be over 4 times higher BTL, especially when their people handing out on polling day were advocating a vote 1 above the line? Do Donkey Voters favour BTL?

    COMMENT: The same happened in 2007 when there was an unnamed group in Column A. The group had easily the highest rate of below the line voting.

    While I fully get the concerns of the parties in relation to missing out as a result of the missing squares abobove the line on the ballot paper . Is there not a requirement that they check it themselves to see that all is correct beofre it is printed/uploaded?
    If not why not. Sounds a bit like sour grapes to me and the cost – absolutely astronomical – I am amazed at the number of people that actutally think that the people crossong out namnes and running the election across the state are VOLUNTEERS. Which of course they are not!

    COMMENT: The requirement is on the electoral commission to correctly publish ballot papers, not the candidates and parties.

    Hi Antony,

    If No Land Tax wins the final seat would the Animal Justice Party be in a position to request a re-run election?

    COMMENT: In my view, only if the gap between the two parties is under 700 will the Animal Justice Party have a case. Read my previous post which still applies in part even if the No Land Tax party now outpolls the tenth Liberal. http://blogs.abc.net.au/antonygreen/2015/04/could-nsw-be-facing-a-second-legislative-council-election.html

    Hi Antony. Great info. You have in your article Labor as getting 7 Upper House seats. The last I heard, Labor was in line for 8. I assume that the 1 less seat is because of BTL voting? Furthermore, does this mean that Courtney Houssos misses out?

    COMMENT: I don’t know where you heard that information. The Labor vote has never been above 7 quotas in the time I’ve been following it.

    Antony, why is the ABC showing a 2pp swing against Gareth Ward in Kiama when the Electoral commission results confirm a swing to the sitting Liberal Member? ABC bias? 🙂

    COMMENT: Because someone turned the electronic feed of votes back on and it wiped out half of the results I had carefully manual data entered. When I get a chance I’ll have to do it again.

    The count as at 12/4 has 3 million of the 4.2million above the line votes counted (about 72%). Do they count the votes booth by booth, electorate by electorate or does the system favour counting the easier above-the-line first?

    My thinking is that if 72% of the total vote is counted and there is 50,000 below the line then there is probably only 14,000 below the line left to come. A smaller number of votes left to come below the line favours the Animal Justice Party over the Coalition in percentage terms. With 3 candidates left, the Coalition then drops out probably almost all exhausting (because a significant percentage of their vote will be a 1 above the line). The Animal Justice would seem favoured as above and below the line Greens and others flow to them.

    COMMENT: As explained to me, the LC check count the NSWEC publishes is of completed booths, so it is of count centres where all above and below the line votes have been check counted and data entered. So the tally does not have a bias in favour of either above or below the line votes.

    As for preferences, if more than 25% of Green voters gave preferences above the line I would be surprised. Many would go to Labor, and as Labor is short of a seventh quota, those preferences would stay with Labor. There is also the problem that the Greens and Animal Justice are at opposite ends of the ballot paper. The Greens will have a surplus of around 35,000 votes, and Animal Justice would need 10% of those to close the gap on No Land Tax. That is an enormous flow based on past NSW LC elections.

    G’day Antony,

    Slightly off-topic, so sorry, but have the NSWEC indicated to you if they will post Two-Candidate Preferred results for the LA in booth-by-booth format for districts?

    Once the declaration of the polls and DoP has occurred they seem to have fallen off the website.

    COMMENT: It will be released at some stage but I can’t tell you when.

    Antony, how are preferences allocated? If a party receives say, 1.4 quota which part of the 1.4 quota is allocated as the .4 available for allocation?

    COMMENT: The NSW Legislative Council uses the pre-1984 Senate system of random sampling ballot papers. This is a very simplified explanation, but if the lead candidate of a party had 1.4 quotas, it would have a surplus of 0.4. So (0.4/1.4) = 28.6% of ballot papers would be randomly sampled from the original tally and distributed as preferences.

    Random sampling only applies to preferences from surplus to quota votes. If a candidate is excluded as having the lowest tally at any point in the count, all votes are distributed and no sampling is involved..

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  • [New post] Do our state Electoral Commissions have enough to do the job?

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    [New post] Do our state Electoral Commissions have enough to do the job?

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    Do our state Electoral Commissions have enough to do the job?

    by Ben Raue

    Last week, while we were all distracted by the NSW election, the Tasmanian Electoral Commission (TEC) made a submission to a parliamentary inquiry warning that cuts to its funding may affect its ability to administer Tasmanian elections.

    The TEC has been hit by funding cuts from the Tasmanian state government, down $35,000 in the last year. The organisation also relies on fees from local councils to fund its operations, and these fees have been reduced due to council terms being extended from three years to four.

    Australian elections have genuinely been conducted to a very high standard, and a big part of this standard has been the administration of elections by independent, competent electoral commissions at a state and federal level. Yet government cost-cutting threatens this high-quality standard. Electoral commissions need to not only be independent, but have the resources to not just do the bare minimum when running an election, but to ensure that redundancies are built in to the system to catch problems, that staff are well-trained, that mistakes are not made, and that the entire process can be conducted in a way which is above reproach.

    When you cut budgets, you threaten this capacity. Sure, electoral commissions will continue to do the basics – set up polling booths, take votes and count them – but the things that will take a hit will be the things you don’t always see, and they could well be the things that cause problems when everything doesn’t go to plan, which happens quite regularly in such a big operation as running a large election.

    We’ve seen the problems with the NSW iVote system in recent weeks: errors on the ballot paper, security problems, and problems with small parts of the ballot paper being visible on the screen. I’ll return to iVote tomorrow, but it is part of the story of cost-cutting. iVote was in part very popular amongst overseas voters thanks to the closure of numerous overseas polling places in major cities.

    While the standard of elections in Australia is still very good in most cases, there’s a bunch of small ways in which our state Electoral Commissions fall short of the Australian Electoral Commission that I certainly notice when attempting to use electoral data for this website.

    Of course, it should be noted that in my experience most of the professional full-time staff at state Electoral Commissions are very professional, take their jobs very seriously and generally do good work, and from time to time you see some good innovations by state electoral commissions. The implementation of limited electronic voting in the ACT seems to have been handled well, and the ACT has also been successful in using optical character recognition (OCR) scanning of handwritten ballots to eliminate counting errors and speed up the counting process for large ballots of the type that take so long to count for the Senate and various Legislative Councils. Further down I’ll also discuss one new exciting innovation from the NSW Electoral Commission at this election.

    If you’re someone looking to access electoral data at a federal level, it’s very easy. In addition to results data in a format easy for casual viewers to read, the AEC provides a ‘results downloads’ page (here is the page for the House of Representatives in 2013).

    This data includes basically anything you might want to analyse the results. Full lists of candidates, full lists of polling places, including latitude and longitude for mapping purposes, enrolment statistics, and election results broken down in a bunch of ways – primary votes, two-candidate-preferred, two-party-preferred (there’s a difference), by booth, by vote type, by division, by state.

    If only the same was available for each state election.

    In most cases, it’s possible to get most of the same information, but there are usually gaps in the data. The most common problem is that data is only publicly available in an HTML format designed for casual readers – this includes keeping booth results on a separate page for each seat, so if you want the whole state’s data you need to use some kind of web-scraping tool or spend all day with copy and paste, and even then it’s a big hassle to combine data from different seats.

    Quite often, data that is posted at the time of the election is taken down afterwards, making it hard to reconstruct results. In at least two jurisdictions (Victoria and South Australia) I had to email the electoral commission to get the full list of booths, and these didn’t include latitudes and longitudes, and in the Victorian case the data was organised in a way that required a lot of reorganisation before it was ready to be analysed. Other states do it better – the ECQ has their data on their website, and the NSW Electoral Commission always publishes a CSV file of all booths, including their estimates of how many voters are expected at each booth (here is the 2015 page, although who knows where this data will reside when the temporary 2015 election minisite is reorganised).

    Even if booth lists are available, there’s often a problem matching lists of booths to the actual results. If you want to make a map, you need to match each individual booth on a list of booth addresses (and possibly geolocations) to the results of the election in each of those booths. Usually this is done by matching up a “unique name” – if there is more than one booth in a suburb, you add qualifying words, such as “Blacktown North” and “Blacktown South”, or sometimes the booths are named after the booth premises “Sackville Street Public School”, or the road the booth is on. The key is each booth has a unique name.

    In the case of previous Tasmanian Electoral Commission booth lists, for both Legislative Council and House of Assembly elections, it has been difficult to find a booth list that actually matches the list of addresses to the results. Thankfully this seems to not always be the case – I have just downloaded the 2009 Legislative Council booth lists to prepare for May’s elections, and this list provides everything I need.

    There are also big problems when it comes to actual vote figures.

    Again, most state jurisdictions provide this data as a single HTML table on a separate page for each seat, which is accessible but time-consuming if you’re interested in numerous seats.

    In Tasmania, this data is even less accessible. For statewide House of Assembly elections, the data is posted as large PDF files, which requires a substantial effort to clean up before you can begin analysing. For the Legislative Council it’s even worse: results are posted as PNG image files (such as this one). In order to use this data in a spreadsheet, to calculate percentages or add up votes for multiple booths, it’s necessary to painstakingly data-enter these results into a new spreadsheet, which is time-consuming and completey unnecessary.

    In other states, there are various issues, many of which revolve around the provision of the appropriate two-candidate-preferred counts for each booth.

    For federal elections, the Australian Electoral Commission provides accurate two-candidate-preferred (2CP) counts for every booth in every seat. Where the two-party-preferred count is different (where either of the top two candidates is not Labor or Coalition), they also provide the 2PP count by booth as well. Where the AEC wrongly guesses the top two candidates before election day, a fresh 2CP count is completed as soon as possible.

    In various states, these counts aren’t as comprehensive. In Queensland, all two-candidate-preferred counts by booth are pulled down only a few days after the election and are not subsequently available. Even if you save this data before it’s taken down, in most seats the data does not exist for special votes, such as absentee, postal and pre-poll.

    All electoral commissions need to guess which two candidates they think will come in the top two before election day, so that vote counters can proceed straight to the preference count after counting primary votes, but sometimes this guess is wrong. It’s not uncommon that booth counts are simply never conducted if the guess is wrong, and we are left guessing about the two-candidate-preferred count until the final distribution of preferences. In the seat of Prahran in Victoria in 2014, we only have a two-party-preferred booth count between the losing Labor and Liberal candidates, but no candidate including the successful Greens candidate.

    The NSW Electoral Commission has had similar problems in the past – in a bunch of seats in NSW in 2011 there exists no count between Greens and Coalition by booth, which would reflect the top two parties. In many of these seats, such as Ballina, Lismore and Vaucluse, the Greens maintained their top-two finish but still the count was conducted between Labor and Liberal/Nationals.

    In seats like Vaucluse there’s no particular urgency in producing the corrected figures, but in seats like Ballina and Lismore it was substantially harder to predict the result because the NSWEC chose not to conduct a fresh 2CP count between the correct candidates.

    The NSWEC is solving this problem in the long-term thanks to their new process whereby all ballots are data-entered into the computer. This will allow the NSWEC to eventually release two-candidate-preferred counts for all conceivable combinations in each seat, which will give even more information than is provided currently by the AEC, and we’ve been promised that data in coming weeks. But it’s still a problem about how they rectify the problem where the NSWEC conducts the wrong 2CP count in a close race.

    Of course, there are also problems with how the Australian Electoral Commission conducts elections. In addition to the unusual circumstances of lost ballot papers that triggered the Senate re-election in 2014, the 2013 Senate recount revealed the number of votes changing in a large number of booths across Western Australia. It’s an ongoing problem about how to improve the accuracy of vote-counting, and ensure that temporary election staff are well-trained.

    Whatever you think is the cause of these problems, imposing tighter budgets on our electoral commissions won’t help them solve their problems.

    I’m considering taking all of the candidate, booth and vote data I have collected over the years and putting them together into a central data repository in a format easy to use for data analysts. Let me know in comments if you would find this useful.

  • Legislative Council Count Updates antony green

    « Could NSW be facing a second Legislative Council election? | Main

    April 08, 2015

    Comments

    Why do we persist with this quota system for the Legislative Council and the Senate? Why not simply allow each voter to vote for the number of candidates that the LC or Senate is to elect? So, for the Senate, each voter from each state votes for 12 candidates. (each voter from each territory votes for 2 ). For the NSW LC each voter would vote for 21 (half) or 42 (full). The 12 senate candidates or the 21/42 LC candidates with the highest number of votes are elected. fair and simple.

    COMMENT: What you are describing is block system, a voting method that became useless as soon as formalised parties appeared. It used to result in one party winning all vacancies. It was abandoned for the Senate in 1919, though an equivalent preferential bot non-quota system was used until 1949. So after the 1946 election the Chifey government had a majority of 33-3. What would be the point of having a Senate if it could end up with one party having a 76-0 majority. Or in the case of the Scullin government in 1929 or Cook government in 1913, have a government facing a massive opposition majority in the Senate.

    Antony, great coverage and commentary as usual.

    Much of the calculation of where the AJP will end up relies on predictions of how many Green (and other minor party, e.g. No Parking Meters, Bicycles, VE) voters preference them. What history do we have to rely on about this percentage?

    You have indicated you expect it will be less than 50% following the Greens HTV. Why?

    COMMENT: Because in the past barely 25% of Green voters have indicated any upper house preference, meaning individual flows are even weaker. I don’t expect that rate to more than double at the 2015 election.

    I did some analysis of what preferences existed at the 2011 election in the following post. http://blogs.abc.net.au/antonygreen/2011/08/measuring-the-performance-of-the-new-nsw-legislative-council-electoral-system.html

    Overall at past elections, as the last candidate of each party was excluded, 80-85% of preferences exhausted. I don’t expect that rate to be much different in 2015.

    Off topic: It seems to me electing someone for an eight-year term on a statewide “list” isn’t very democratic or accountable no matter who wins.

    After Victoria went to an election tying the whole of the Legislative Council to the term of the of the Legislative Assembly, using STV to vote for five MLCs each in eight districts, just as Western Australia elects six MLCs each in six districts, has New South Wales or South Australia ever considered switching to a similar model as Victoria and Western Australia have?

    Has there been any move to establish an elected LC in Queensland of late?

    Your analysis is appreciated by professional and amateur psephologists everywhere.

    COMMENT: Queensland requires a referendum to re-create a Legislative Council. NSW and South Australia would both require referendums to end the staggered terms. South Australia has discussed the subject without getting anywhere. NSW moved from four rotations to three in 1978 by referendum, and three rotations to two in 1991 by referendum. There has been no proposal yet to go further with change.

    Antony, where have the preliminary BTL figures come from? I can’t find them on the NSWEC website.

    COMMENT: Some data is now on the website.

    Hi Antony,
    Great information however I have a question slightly off topic. Penny Sharp ran for a lower house seat and was defeated. How can she now get a seat in the upper house?

    COMMENT: Both Penny Sharpe and Steve Whan resigned from Legislative Council seats that did not face election on March 28. When the new parliament sits, both vacancies have to be filled. There is nothing to stop Sharpe being re-appointed to the vacancy created by her resignation.

    This has happened in the past. Fred Nile resigned from the Council in 2004 to contest the Senate. When he was unsuccessful he was re-appointed to the vacancy his resignation created.

    If there was to be a re-run of the LC election, due to this (minor error), what would it cost the State of NSW?

    COMMENT: A lot!

    It seems very strange that NLT would be polling at 7.4% in BTL votes? Why would the vote for NLT be over 4 times higher BTL, especially when their people handing out on polling day were advocating a vote 1 above the line? Do Donkey Voters favour BTL?

    COMMENT: The same happened in 2007 when there was an unnamed group in Column A. The group had easily the highest rate of below the line voting.

    While I fully get the concerns of the parties in relation to missing out as a result of the missing squares abobove the line on the ballot paper . Is there not a requirement that they check it themselves to see that all is correct beofre it is printed/uploaded?
    If not why not. Sounds a bit like sour grapes to me and the cost – absolutely astronomical – I am amazed at the number of people that actutally think that the people crossong out namnes and running the election across the state are VOLUNTEERS. Which of course they are not!

    COMMENT: The requirement is on the electoral commission to correctly publish ballot papers, not the candidates and parties.

    Hi Antony,

    If No Land Tax wins the final seat would the Animal Justice Party be in a position to request a re-run election?

    COMMENT: In my view, only if the gap between the two parties is under 700 will the Animal Justice Party have a case. Read my previous post which still applies in part even if the No Land Tax party now outpolls the tenth Liberal. http://blogs.abc.net.au/antonygreen/2015/04/could-nsw-be-facing-a-second-legislative-council-election.html

    Hi Antony. Great info. You have in your article Labor as getting 7 Upper House seats. The last I heard, Labor was in line for 8. I assume that the 1 less seat is because of BTL voting? Furthermore, does this mean that Courtney Houssos misses out?

    COMMENT: I don’t know where you heard that information. The Labor vote has never been above 7 quotas in the time I’ve been following it.

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  • Philip Morris against all of us AVAAZ

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    Philip Morris against all of us

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    Emma Ruby-Sachs – Avaaz Unsubscribe

    6:15 PM (35 minutes ago)

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    Big tobacco is suing Uruguay for their anti-smoking laws. If they win, it will threaten public health laws everywhere and prove one corporation can trump the public good, even when its product kills! But if we launch a giant call and Avaaz hires a world class legal team to carry our voices into the courtroom, the judges won’t be able to turn a blind eye. Click to join now:

    SIGN THE PETITION
    Dear friends,

    The tobacco giant Philip Morris is suing Uruguay for having some of the best anti-smoking laws in the world, and there’s a good chance it could win, unless we step in.

    It’s a scary reality: a single company, with a product that kills, could overturn laws that protect our  health. This court has already come under fire for not listening to the public in similar lawsuits. Let’s ensure they listen now: if we launch a giant call and work with a world class legal team to carry our voices into the courtroom, the judges won’t be able to turn a blind eye.

    Let’s tell the court that this doesn’t just affect Uruguay — if Big Tobacco gets their way, it opens the door for challenges everywhere — at least 4 other countries are in the legal crosshairs, and many more have anti-smoking laws at risk.

    We have to move fast — the court is already hearing arguments. Click to protect our public health and our democracies from corporate greed — each of our names will be submitted to the court:

    https://secure.avaaz.org/en/uruguay_vs_big_tobacco_loc_2/?bhPqncb&v=56805

    Dear friends,

    The tobacco giant Philip Morris is suing Uruguay for having some of the best anti-smoking laws in the world, and there’s a good chance it could win, unless we step in.

    It’s a scary reality: a single company, with a product that kills, could overturn laws that protect our  health. This court has already come under fire for not listening to the public in similar lawsuits. Let’s ensure they listen now: if we launch a giant call and work with a world class legal team to carry our voices into the courtroom, the judges won’t be able to turn a blind eye.

    Let’s tell the court that this doesn’t just affect Uruguay — if Big Tobacco gets their way, it opens the door for challenges everywhere — at least 4 other countries are in the legal crosshairs, and many more have anti-smoking laws at risk.

    We have to move fast — the court is already hearing arguments. Click to protect our public health and our democracies from corporate greed — each of our names will be submitted to the court:

    https://secure.avaaz.org/en/uruguay_vs_big_tobacco_loc_2/?bhPqncb&v=56805

    Uruguay requires 80% of the cigarette package to be covered with medical warnings and graphic images. Smoking had reached crisis levels, killing around 7 Uruguayans each day, but since this law was put in place smoking has decreased every year! Now tobacco giant Philip Morris is arguing that the warning labels leave no space for its trademarks.

    It’s all part of a global Philip Morris strategy to sue and intimidate countries. The company already slapped an expensive lawsuit on Australia — and if it wins against Uruguay, it could run cases against more than a hundred other countries including France, Norway, New Zealand, and Finland who are all considering new life-saving legislation.

    Experts say Philip Morris has a good chance of winning because it’s using a closed door international tribunal that ruled for corporations two-thirds of the time last year. And their rulings are binding, even though many of the judges are private citizens with corporate ties instead of impartial legal experts. It’s up to us to force them to consider the devastating effect their ruling could have on health across the world.

    Uruguay has its own legal team, but they’re rightly focused on arguing their individual defence. We can submit a unique legal argument about how this ruling would set a precedent for every country with smoking laws and a similar trade agreement. And we can show the court that public opinion is behind them if they rule in favour of Uruguay and health protection everywhere.

    The more of us sign, the harder it is for the court to ignore us. Click below to join the call and forward this email to everyone:

    https://secure.avaaz.org/en/uruguay_vs_big_tobacco_loc_2/?bhPqncb&v=56805

    When big corporations launch deadly attacks on our public good, our community has jumped into action — from Monsanto to H&M, we’ve made sure that profits don’t come before people. This is our chance to do it again, for all of us.

    With hope,

    Emma, Maria Paz, Katie, Mais, Alice, Ricken, Risalat and the whole Avaaz team

    MORE INFORMATION

    Uruguay sued by cigarette makers over anti-smoking laws (BBC)
    http://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-30708063

    Philip Morris Sues Uruguay Over Graphic Cigarette Packaging (NPR)
    http://www.npr.org/blogs/goatsandsoda/2014/09/15/345540221/philip-morris-sues-uruguay-over-graphic-cigarette-packaging

    Big Tobacco puts countries on trial as concerns over TTIP deals mount (The Independent)
    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/analysis-and-features/big-tobacco-puts-countries-on-trial-as-concerns-over-ttip-deals-mount-9807478.html

    The Secret Trade Courts (New York Times)
    http://www.nytimes.com/2004/09/27/opinion/27mon3.html?_r=1&

    Recent Trends in IIAs and ISDS (UN Conference on Trade and Development)
    http://unctad.org/en/PublicationsLibrary/webdiaepcb2015d1_en.pdf

    The arbitration game (The Economist)
    http://www.economist.com/news/finance-and-economics/21623756-governments-are-souring-treaties-protect-foreign-investors-arbitration