Warm oceans drive hottest year on record with more to come, US agencies say

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January 17, 2015 – 7:08PM

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Peter Hannam
Peter Hannam
Environment Editor, The Sydney Morning Herald

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Hottest spot in NSW

Unusually warm seas helped drive annual global temperatures to a record level in 2014 and are likely to ensure this year has a similarly hot start, climate experts say.

Two leading US agencies, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and NASA, have declared last year was the hottest in data going back to 1880, adding to an earlier confirmation by Japan.
Most of the world was warmer than average last year.

Most of the world was warmer than average last year. Photo: NOAA

Globally, average land and sea-surface temperatures were 0.69 degrees above the 20th century average, “easily surpassing” the previous high set in 2005 and 2010 by 0.04 degrees, NOAA said.
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Record temperatures were also recorded for six separate months, including December, while sea temperatures broke records for seven consecutive months from May and November.

“The biggest standout was the warmth of the oceans,” said Blair Trewin, senior climatologist at Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology. “The year was pretty much warm everywhere.”
How the world has warmed since 1985. (Arctic, Antarctic omitted for limited data.)

How the world has warmed since 1985. (Arctic, Antarctic omitted for limited data.) Photo: NOAA

The western Pacific and a region of the Indian Ocean between Madagascar and the WA coast were among the areas posting record annual heat. Land temperatures had their fourth hottest year.

Last year was the 38th consecutive year that annual global temperatures were above average, with all of the 10 warmest years occurring since 1998. Anyone born after February 1985 will not have experienced a cooler-than-average month globally, NOAA said.

“While the ranking of individual years can be affected by chaotic weather patterns, the long-term trends are attributable to drivers of climate change that right now are dominated by human emissions of greenhouse gases,” Gavin Schmidt, director of NASA’s Goddard Institute of Space Studies, said.
2014 ended on a particularly warm note, versus other record years.

2014 ended on a particularly warm note, versus other record years. Photo: NOAA

The latest annual data will likely add pressure on nations due to meet in December in Paris to agree on a global treaty to halt the growth of carbon emissions and keep temperature increases to within 2 degrees of pre-industrial levels, or a bit more than double the increase so far.

A papal encyclical from Pope Francis calling for climate action is also expected in March or April.

Greens leader Christine Milne said: “Climate change is turning up the heat around the world and is risking ecosystems, economies and lives.”
The warming trajectory, including from the extreme El Nino year of 1998.

The warming trajectory, including from the extreme El Nino year of 1998. Photo: NOAA

“We need to do so much more to reduce pollution and address dangerous global warming, not less,” Senator Milne said, describing the Abbott government’s direct action plan to pay polluters to cut back as “pathetic”.

A spokesman for Greg Hunt, though, said the government believes “clearly and categorically in the science and is committed to and will achieve its targets”, in particular the pledge to cut 2000 level emissions by 5 per cent by 2020.

“Labor gave Australia the worst of both worlds with higher electricity prices and an utterly failed emissions policy,” the spokesman said. “The ALP must make clear what will be the electricity slug they are proposing for Australian families and pensioners.”

Labor acting shadow minister for climate change Anthony Albanese said Australia had gone from a “front runner” on climate policy to be “the first country to go backwards on climate change” under Tony Abbott.

“He refused to talk about climate change at the G20, he rejected the invitation to attend the UN Climate Summit [in September last year] and he sent fellow climate sceptic Andrew Robb to watch over Julie Bishop at the climate conference in Lima,” Mr Albanese said.

Warming up

Australia’s warmest year in records dating from 1910 was 2013, while last year was ranked third warmest – making it easily the warmest 24 months.

The local and global warmth in 2014 came despite neutral El Nino conditions. During typical El Nino years, the central and eastern equatorial Pacific warms compared with the west, with the ocean taking up less heat.

“The last time an annual temperature record was broken with no warm-phase El Niño conditions present during the year was in 1990,” NOAA said.

Since Pacific conditions remain near El-Nino thresholds, however, the odds favour global temperatures remaining well above average for at least the first half of 2015, the bureau’s Dr Trewin said.

Many regions posted their hottest year on record, with the World Meteorological Organisation estimating that 2014 was Europe’s warmest in at least the past 500 years, beating 2007 by 0.3 degrees.

Not all regions, though, had a warm year, with central North America among the areas posting cooler-than-average conditions. Canada had its coldest November-March period since records began in 1948, NOAA said, citing local observations.

Global annual temperatures have increased at an average rate of 0.06 degrees per decade since 1880, with the rate accelerating to 0.16 degrees per decade since 1970, NOAA said.

“At a global scale, you’ve had quite marked changes since the mid-70s,” Dr Trewin said, noting that was about the time the background warming signal “swamped the influence” of airborne pollutants such as sulphates, which had been acting as a brake on temperature increases.

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The John James Newsletter 41

The John James Newsletter 41
17 January 2015

I do not blame those who are resolved to rule, only those who are ready to submitThucydides

Edge of ExtinctionGuy McPherson is convinced that humanity will be extinct within 20 years from a chain of events that would be triggered by the next Global Financial Crisis. Here is his sequence and its consequences. http://arctic-news.blogspot.com.au/2015/01/edge-of-extinction.html andhttp://truth-out.org/news/item/28490-the-methane-monster-roars

• The global financial system is artificial and mired in debt.
• Were it to fail, as many predict could happen this year, then trade and industry would decline sharply and rapidly.
• Less power would be used and less pollution would continue to enter the atmosphere.
• Up to now this has created an aerosol layer of smog that has masked warming by more than 1 degree.
• In addition, this year or next we should see an ice-free Arctic for the first time.
• Complete loss of Arctic ice could double the current rate of warming.
• Together these two events will cause rapid global heat-rise, really rapid!
• As it gets too hot to keep nuclear power plants cool there would be massive fires that create more heat.
• Few forests could avoid destruction from catastrophic wildfires, all adding to the temperature.
• The accelerated temperature increase speeds up the loss of Arctic and Antarctic ice that will raise sea levels 
• This further reduces trade and industry as docks and infrastructure is flooded
• That leads to even more loss of aerosol cover
• Leading to more temperature rise.
• Together these would bring global temperature to beyond 2.4 degrees, and possibly double in the interior of large continents and result in widespread crop failure and loss of habitat.
• At that heat a massive explosion of methane from the Arctic Sea is highly probable.
• This would rapidly increase temperature by a further 1.2 degrees.
• In addition there are more than twenty feed-back loops waiting to accelerate this process.
• Governments will be overwhelmed and find it more and more difficult to operate
• Populations have nowhere to go.
• Nuclear war is almost inevitable.

Civilisation fails.

• Events are now moving so rapidly this scenario is likely to commence very soon 
• It would unfold over the next twenty years or less
• By then the earth will be 5-6 degrees hotter. 

George MonbiotThere has not been one proposal, debate or even position paper on limiting fossil fuel production put forward at international climate negotiations. Almost all governments are pursuing the same policy of maximising the production of fossil fuels while paying lip service to the need to minimise emissions.http://www.monbiot.com/2015/01/09/produce-more-consume-less/
The bear is back: A cautionary tale from Gerard MinackFiscal policy is very unlikely to be effective in the next downturn due to congressional gridlock in the US, and lack of centralised fiscal authority in Europe. So you’re left response-less when you enter the next downturn, with monetary policy that is ineffectual, unconventional and just embroidery.What we have are fully invested bears.http://www.smh.com.au/business/the-bear-is-back-a-cautionary-tale-of-global-gloom-20150112-12mahk.html
A science experiment landed this little girl in handcuffsKiera is just one of over 260,000 students that were reported to law enforcement by their schools in 2012, the most-recent available data. By criminalizing every activity under the sun for both adults and children, the government is using the threat of violence (or sometimes actual violence) to create a docile, obedient, and subservient population.http://www.sovereignman.com/trends/unbelievable-a-science-experiment-landed-this-little-girl-in-handcuffs-15884/
In an ‘Epic’ Chase, Sea Shepherd Vows to Pursue Poachers to ‘Ends of the Earth’The dramatic chase, which has gone on for 22 days, is thought to be the world’s longest pursuit of an illegal fishing vessel.http://www.commondreams.org/news/2015/01/09/epic-chase-sea-shepherd-vows-pursue-poachers-ends-earth
What Do the World Bank and IMF Have to Do With the Ukraine Conflict?The East-West competition over Ukraine is about the control of natural resources, including uranium and other minerals Ukraine’s vast agricultural sector is the world’s third largest exporter of corn and fifth largest exporter of wheat. Ukraine is the breadbasket of Europe.http://www.ipsnews.net/2014/08/what-do-the-world-bank-and-imf-have-to-do-with-the-ukraine-conflict/
Is War in the Cards for 2015? Either Obama and Putin enter negotiations over Ukraine or the war in Ukraine, with 4,700 dead since April, gets bigger and wider.http://www.creators.com/conservative/pat-buchanan/is-war-in-the-cards-for-2015.html andhttp://www.smh.com.au/comment/appease-putin-and-avert-a-second-cold-war-20150112-12mc0c.html
What Hebdo execution video really showsIt seems impossible that an AK-47 bullet fired from close range would not have had a dramatic impact on that policeman’s head. The video shows nothing significant happened to his head when the bullet was fired.https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=yJEvlKKm6og and among the commentshttp://chuckmanotherchoiceofwords.blogspot.com.au/2015/01/je-ne-suis-pas-charlie-extremely-dark.html
Complaint of war crimes against John Howard sent to the International Criminal Courthttp://theaimn.com/complaint-john-howard-international-criminal-court/
China and Russia to launch new credit rating agency in 2015The new agency will be based in Hong Kong, and provide a check on the ‘Big Three’, which have not always provided an accurate reading of economic situations.http://rt.com/business/222175-russia-china-rating-agency/
What 2,000 Calories Looks LikeA healthy adult should be consuming around 2,000 calories a day, according to the US Department of Health. This photo series reveals just what 2,000 calories looks like at some of the UK’s favourite fast food chains — and it’s often a lot smaller than you might think. http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2014/12/22/upshot/what-2000-calories-looks-like.html?_r=1&abt=0002&abg=1 
The Rock of our Existence The Zionist claim to Palestine was solely based on the Biblical history of the Exodus, the conquest of Canaan, the kingdoms of Saul, David and Solomon and the events of those times. Four generations of devoted archeologists, with a burning conviction and huge resources, produced not a single indication that any of these happened. On the Egyptian side thousands of  documents have been deciphered from 1730 BC onwards that show that Egyptian spies, traders and soldiers reported in great detail on events in every town of Canaan. Not a single item has been found that tells anything remotely resembling Biblical events. http://zope.gush-shalom.org/home/en/channels/avnery/1420212779
How the West was stolenScale of Native American dispossession revealed in a time-lapse video. Between 1776 and 1887, white conquerors razed across 1.5 billion acres of Indian-occupied land, claiming it for their own.http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2902380/Story-Native-American-dispossession-told-unforgettable-new-visualizations.html

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