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  • Wolfbane MONBIOT

    Monbiot.com


    Wolfbane

    Posted: 20 Nov 2012 07:08 AM PST

    So much for Norway’s eco-friendly image.

     

    By George Monbiot, published on the Guardian’s website 20th November 2012

    One of the biggest political shocks of the past decade has been the transformation of Canada. Under the influence of the tar barons of Alberta, it has mutated from a country dominated by liberal, pacific, outward-looking values to a thuggish petro-state, ripping up both international treaties and the fabric of its own nation.

    Prepare to be shocked again. Another country, whose green and humanitarian principles were just as well-established as Canada’s, is undergoing a similar transformation. Again, it is not the people of the nation who have changed – in both cases they remain, as far as I can tell, as delightful as ever – but the dominant political class and its destruction of both national values and international image.

    I am talking about Norway. It is famous for the size of its aid budget, the maturity of its decision-making, its reasoned diplomacy and above all its defence of the environment. Of course there has been for a long time a fundamental contradiction: Norway’s image as the saviour of the ecosystem is somewhat undermined by its massive oil industry. You might already be aware of other contradictions, such as the clash between its protection of wild fish stocks and its destructive farmed salmon industry.

    But what I am about to relate cuts to the heart of Norway’s image as a broad-minded, liberal, green nation. It repudiates those advertisements emphasising the country’s natural beauty and astonishing wildlife and suggests that the sensibilities of Norway’s current political class are no more sophisticated than those of the frontiersmen of the Wild West in the late 19th Century.

    Tomorrow (Wednesday) there will be a meeting between the Norwegian and Swedish governments, at which Norway intends to lay claim to some of the wolves which live on the border between the two nations. This may sound like a good thing. The government’s purpose is anything but.

    If it can classify these wolves as Norwegian, even though most of them breed in Sweden, it can go ahead with the extermination of wolves elsewhere in the country. It can claim that, due to the newly-nationalised border population, it is still meeting its international obligations to maintain the species.

    Wolves are very popular in Norway: surveys suggest that around 80% of the public – in both urban and rural areas – wants to keep them at current or higher numbers. But as so often with rural issues – in Norway and in many other parts of the world – the dominant voices are those who belong to a small but powerful minority.

    Every year some two million sheep are released into forests and mountains of Norway without supervision. Around 1500 of them – as a maximum estimate – are killed by wolves. The farmers are richly compensated for these killings.

    Far more sheep – some 100,000 – die for other reasons: falling into crevasses, drowning, infectious diseases, being hit by trains. But as has happened in so many countries across so many centuries, the wolf is seen by some landowners as encapsulating everything that’s wrong with the world. It is, whatever the evidence might say, perceived as a bundle of concentrated evil, which must be contained and destroyed if humankind is to emerge from the darkness of the past.

    Nothing we have learnt about wolves over the past few decades – the marvels of their social structure, the very low risk they present to people and even to most livestock, the remarkable extent to which they shape the ecosystem, allowing other species to flourish* – has altered attitudes among the hard core of people determined to exterminate them.

    *William J. Ripple, Robert L. Beschta, 2012. Trophic cascades in Yellowstone: The first 15 years after wolf reintroduction. Biological Conservation. Volume 145, Issue 1, pp 205–213.

    Politics in Norway tend to be local in character. For people who possess an almost religious aversion to wolves, the persistence of the species is an election issue. But those who like wolves tend to vote as most people do, on issues such as the economy, tax and, perhaps, broader environmental policy.

    The Centre Party (which is well to the right of centre) currently holds the environment brief in the ruling coalition. It has been chasing the votes of sheep farmers and hunters. It appears to see the wolf – and the international obligations to protect it – as an issue of Norwegian identity: if we want to kill them we damn well will. This is reminiscent of the Japanese political attitude towards killing whales and dolphins.

    Just last month, at the latest summit on the Convention on Biological Diversity, Norway agreed a strategic plan to halt biodiversity loss. Almost immediately afterwards it announced tomorrow’s meeting, whose purpose, as far as some political parties are concerned, seems to be to extirpate the wolf.

    Already, the situation of predators in Norway is grim. Just one per cent of the country has been designated a “wolf zone”, in which the animals are allowed to persist. But only three litters a year are permitted: once three pairs of wolves have bred, all the rest can be shot. There are currently just 25 wolves in the country. The hunting quota for this winter is 12. Over a century ago, before state bounties were paid for the killing of wolves, the population in Norway was over 1000.

    As the government is aware, 25 – or 13 – is far from being a genetically viable population. Even if it were allowed to remain at this level, the wolves would eventually die out through inbreeding. But if the border wolves are redesignated as Norwegian, the extermination of the last population in Norway proper will take place even more swiftly, as politicians can then argue that the animals in the wolf zone need no longer be protected.

    This new policy, if it goes ahead, will be indicative of the brutalisation of the treatment of predators in Norway over the past few years (a process which has also been taking place in Canada). The government has launched a programme of what it calls – in its eerily clinical language – “den removal”. What this means is digging wolverine cubs out of their hibernation dens and killing them. Wolverines, like wolves, are on the national red list of endangered species, yet they are still being killed for political reasons.

    The government issues permits for the shooting of golden eagles, if they are considered to have killed reindeer. For the first time since 1932, last year the government permitted “spring hunts” of bears. The animals are shot from a helicopter when they have just emerged from their winter dens and hardly know if they are coming or going. Bears are also on the red list: there are only around 150 in Norway.

    Such practices were regarded as barbaric and unacceptable until recently, even among hunters and farmers. Now they are taking place without any public debate or social consent.

    Today a large coalition of environment groups in Norway, Sweden and Finland is writing to their three governments, requesting a joint plan to protect big predators across the three countries, and allow their numbers to rise.

    Their letter – and the stark facts it contains about the continued suppression of these species in all three countries – exposes the myth of Scandanavian policy towards the natural world, which we have allowed ourselves to believe is better than that of almost any other nations. It is striking that across the Balkans, eastern Europe and Germany, the protection of wildlife and the readiness to allow the number of large predators to rise is far more advanced than in Norway, Sweden and Finland.

    The extreme nature of what the Centre Party and a hardcore of its rural supporters is trying to achieve may turn out to be the best thing that has happened to the wolf population in that country. By exploding the myth of Norway’s environmental virtue and embarrassing the country internationally, it might force Norwegians to wake up to what is being done in their name, and turn their passive support for the nation’s wildlife into something more active.

    www.monbiot.com

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  • The Financial Risks of Ecological Limits

    The Financial Risks of Ecological Limits

    Some of the economic implications of resource constraints were introduced to the world of international finance this week in London, when Global Footprint Network and the UN Environment Programme Finance Initiative (UNEP FI), in collaboration with leading financial institutions, launched the E-RISC (Environmental Risk Integration in Sovereign Credit) report at Bloomberg, a leader in global financial data.

    The interactive event drew over 150 participants, including representatives from leading financial institutions, investors, asset management firms and rating agencies, including Caisse des Depots, SNS Asset Management, Standard & Poor’s, J.P. Morgan, KfW Bankengruppe, Deutsche Bank, HSBC and Barclays.

    To date, tightening resource constraints and their impacts on national economies have been largely absent from financial analyses. The E-RISC report fills this gap by exploring to what extent resource and ecological risks can impact a nation’s economy and how these factors affect a nation’s ability to pay its debts.

    E-RISC Press Conference at Bloomberg, with Ivo Mulder (UNEP FI), Susan Burns (Global Footprint Network), and Nick Nuttall (UNEP)

    The E-RISC project analyzes five nations’ (Brazil, Japan, France, Turkey and India) natural resource-related risks over short-, medium- and long-term risk horizons, providing a simple framework to compare and rank countries. Despite having similar ratings from the three major credit rating agencies, the five nations have very different environmental risk profiles.

    BusinessWeek and Financial News covered the E-RISC project and some of its key findings. For example, nations that are heavily dependent on natural resource imports may find that continued supply becomes unreliable or costly. For example, a 10 percent variation in commodity prices can lead to changes in a country’s trade balance equivalent to 0.5 percent of GDP. Further, a 10 per cent reduction in the productive capacity of soils and freshwater areas alone could lead to a reduction in trade balance equivalent to over 4 per cent of GDP.

    Also yesterday, Bloomberg announced that it will now be offering Global Footprint Network’s country-level natural resource risk data (National Footprint Accounts) on all its terminals. This means that Bloomberg’s 300,000 global subscribers will have access to data that will help them integrate natural resource risk into sovereign debt, economic growth and company valuation models. The availability of Footprint data on the Bloomberg terminals is significant, as it marks a further step towards integrating—rather than externalizing—the ecological assets on which economies rely upon. Global Footprint Network will be the only provider to cover comprehensive natural resource risk data on the Bloomberg terminal.

    The E-RISC and Bloomberg news came only days after Global Footprint Network won more honors for its Footprint work. The Binding Prize—one of Europe’s top environmental awards—was awarded to Global Footprint Network President Mathis Wackernagel. Previous winners include the International Commission for the Protection of the Alps (CIPRA), Slow Food International, and the European Greenbelt (Grüne Band Europa). The honor comes on the heels of Dr. Wackernagel formally receiving the Blue Planet Prize at a ceremony in Japan at the end of October.

    The Binding Prize has been given every year since 1986 in Liechtenstein to people chosen for their advancement of ideas in the field of nature conservation and environmental protection. Binding Foundation board member Martin Boesch, who presented the award in Vaduz on November 9, said that the Ecological Footprint concept not only helps to promote global sustainability, “but also had a dramatic and widespread media influence, eliciting environmental policy decisions.”

    “Climate change is not the problem. Erosion, water scarcity, desertification and overfishing are also not. These are all just symptoms of a dominant theme: We are demanding more than the Earth can sustainably provide,” Wackernagel said in his acceptance speech. “Together with the leaders of these countries [referring to the 10+ nations that have adopted or reviewed Ecological Footprint accounting] we want to find out what this means for the future. Can the trends be turned in the right direction?”

    Press conference photo credit: Xinhua News Agency


  • Fremantle plans for a future of rising sea levels

    Fremantle plans for a future of rising sea levels
    inmycommunity
    IF global warming and climate change cause sea levels to rise by one metre, parts of the West End, North Fremantle and Fishing Boat Harbour will be completely under water, according to the City of Fremantle’s draft Climate Change Adaptation Plan.
    See all stories on this topic »

  • Plus 2°C in 2052. What to do?

    climate code red


    Plus 2°C in 2052. What to do?

    Posted: 19 Nov 2012 07:10 PM PST

    Intro: Jorgen Randers of the Norwegian Business School is the author of the just-published “2052: A Global Forecast for the Next Forty Years” and a co-author of the 1972 Club of Rome report on “Limits to Growth”. Forty years on from its publication, it has proved to be very prescient. In his new book, Randers looks forward by uses a wide array of data and expert elicitations as the basis for dynamic economic-ecological modelling of the world as he thinks in will be in another 40 years. This is the first of three short articles by Randers which explore aspects of his 2052 prognosis.

    by Jorgen Randers

    A year ago, I sat down to find out what will happen to my beloved world over the next 40 years. I’ve worked a lifetime promoting sustainability – sadly, with limited success – and I wanted to know whether I should continue worrying about the future during my final 20 to 25 years on planet Earth.
    My answer is available in 2052 – A Global Forecast for the Next forty Years (see www.2052.info). The main message is simple: I predict that the world average temperature will surpass plus 2°Celsius over preindustrial times – the internationally agreed danger threshold – in 2052. And continue upwards, condemning our grandchildren to the likelihood of climate disaster in the second half of the 21st century.
    This means that the global future will resemble one of the twelve scenarios from The Limits to Growth in 1972. The world will follow the “persistent pollution scenario” – overshoot and collapse with CO2 as the “persistent” pollutant, which once emitted resides in the atmosphere with a half life of a hundred years.
    I do not forecast an energy crisis, a resource crisis, a food crisis, a water crisis – or the realisation of one of the more optimistic scenarios from Limits. I believe that man-made greenhouse gas emissions will prove to be the real problem.
    This is because the human footprint will be smaller than most people expect. The future world population and GDP will be much lower than commonly forecast: The global population will peak at 8 billion around 2040, and the world GDP will only grow at 2% per year to 2052 – half historical rates. There are two major reasons: women will choose to have fewer children and economies will find it more difficult to grow as they mature. As a consequence humans will use fewer resources. And rising greenhouse gas emissions will be the critical factor shaping our life on Earth. Climate change will trump resource scarcity. One consequence will be a smaller world economy in 2052. Another will more poverty than commonly forecast.
    Climate emissions could easily have been reduced if humanity decided to take action, but humanity won’t because of myopia—simply look at the tepid goals and strategies adopted by the Rio+20 conference and the automatic negative reaction by the younger generation of climate activists They know from past experience that there will be insufficient investment in solutions. A good life for our grandchildren is being sacrificed for short term gain for ourselves. In modern democratic market economies, investments mainly flow to what is profitable, not what is needed.
    The short term nature of markets could be modified by legislation – as for example a tax on carbon. My point is that this is unlikely to happen in democratic society, because the voter is focused on short term income growth. Most voters won’t support higher prices for gasoline and electricity. Another solution could be new supranational institutions that impose a common long term perspective on nation states. But a full 20 years of talking after Rio 1992 has produced little progress.
    Luckily my forecast is a cliff hanger. A small change in the human response would suffice to create much better life for our grandchildren. For example shifting one to two percent of the global work force and global capital into climate friendly sectors would do the trick. Auto workers could make electric cars rather than fossil fuel ones, build solar plants rather than coal fired plants, and construct smaller well-insulated homes rather than big un-insulated ones. The income loss would be small, the effect on distribution – the split between now and the future – big and desirable.
    At the aggregate level the need is to introduce systems of governance that place more emphasis on long term effects: Global society needs structural long-termism to counter current short termism. For example temporary techno-dictators or a global central bank for climate gas emissions rights.
    Concretely, in order to create a better world for our grandchildren, we should:

    1. Have fewer children, especially in the rich world.
    2. Reduce the ecological footprint, first by slowing the use of coal, oil and gas in the rich world.
    3. Construct a low-carbon energy system in the poor world, paid for by the rich.
    4. Create institutions that counter national short-termism.

    But most importantly, the coming crisis should be used to develop new goals for modern society. To remind us all that the purpose of society is to increase a total life satisfaction, not (only) to have each person contribute to the gross domestic product.

    • Next: Forty More Years of Slow Growth

    Jorgen Randers is professor at the Norwegian Business School BI and co-author of The Limits to Growth in 1972, the Report to the Club of Rome, and its two sequels. His most recent book, published in May 2012, is 2052 – A Global Forecast for the Next Forty Years, also a report to The Club of Rome.

  • Storm surge barriers for Manhattan could worsen effects on nearby areas: Other options proposed

    ScienceDaily: Severe Weather News


     

    ScienceDaily: Severe Weather News


    Storm surge barriers for Manhattan could worsen effects on nearby areas: Other options proposed

    Posted: 19 Nov 2012 01:35 PM PST

    The flooding in New York and New Jersey caused by Superstorm Sandy prompted calls from Gov. Andrew Cuomo and other officials to consider building storm surge barriers to protect Lower Manhattan from future catastrophes. But, such a strategy could make things even worse for outlying areas that were hit hard by the hurricane, such as Staten Island, the New Jersey Shore and Long Island’s South Shore, a City College of New York landscape architecture professor warns.
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    Posted: 19 Nov 2012 01:35 PM PST

    The flooding in New York and New Jersey caused by Superstorm Sandy prompted calls from Gov. Andrew Cuomo and other officials to consider building storm surge barriers to protect Lower Manhattan from future catastrophes. But, such a strategy could make things even worse for outlying areas that were hit hard by the hurricane, such as Staten Island, the New Jersey Shore and Long Island’s South Shore, a City College of New York landscape architecture professor warns.
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  • ‘Dark energy’ — Life beneath the seafloor: Scientists present recent findings on the subsurface biosphere

    ScienceDaily: Oceanography News


    What goes down must come back up: Effects of 2010-11 La Niña on global sea level

    Posted: 19 Nov 2012 02:29 PM PST

    In 2010-11, global sea level fell nearly a quarter inch. But, when it comes to long-term sea level, what comes down must eventually come back up.

    ‘Dark energy’ — Life beneath the seafloor: Scientists present recent findings on the subsurface biosphere

    Posted: 19 Nov 2012 01:34 PM PST

    Scientists affiliated with the National Science Foundation (NSF) Center for Dark Energy Biosphere Investigations (C-DEBI) will discuss recent progress in understanding life beneath the seafloor at the American Geophysical Union (AGU) fall meeting, held in San Francisco from Dec. 3-7, 2012. Once considered a barren plain dotted with hydrothermal vents, the seafloor and the crust beneath it are humming with microbial life — with “dark energy”. Once considered a barren plain dotted with hydrothermal vents, the seafloor and the crust beneath it are humming with microbial life — with “dark energy,”

    New energy technologies promise brighter future

    Posted: 19 Nov 2012 12:13 PM PST

    Creative new technologies could change our sources of energy, change our use of energy, and change our lives.

    Invisibility cloaking to shield floating objects from waves

    Posted: 19 Nov 2012 07:45 AM PST

    A new approach to invisibility cloaking may one day be used at sea to shield floating objects – such as oil rigs and ships – from rough waves. Unlike most other cloaking techniques that rely on transformation optics, this one is based on the influence of the ocean floor’s topography on the various “layers” of ocean water. At the American Physical Society’s (APS) Division of Fluid Dynamics (DFD) meeting, being held November 18-20, 2012, in San Diego, Calif., Reza Alam, assistant professor of mechanical engineering at the University of California, Berkeley, will describe how the variation of density in ocean water can be used to cloak floating objects against incident surface waves.
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