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  • Stable Population Party says massive cuts needed to Australia’s immigration intake

     

    He denies the fledgling party, formed in February, will be a honeypot for rednecks and racists, saying Australians are “capable of a mature and rational debate on the issue”.

    Nevertheless, he says massive cuts are needed to Australia’s current immigration intake, including from the skilled migration program, family reunions, the high volume of New Zealanders allowed in, and overseas students.

    Net overseas migration, the difference between those entering Australia with plans to stay for more than a year and those leaving with the same intention, was 297,000 in the year to September last year.

    Mr Bourke, who says he has never been a member of a political party, thinks that figure should be reduced to zero.

    “We need a balanced migration program, with immigration set at between 50,000 to 80,000 a year, matching the emigration that happens each year,” he told The Australian.

    “The major parties are hopelessly conflicted between the will of the people and the will of their big business donors, and both sides are just as bad.

    “They keep using this measurement of higher gross domestic product to indicate our wellbeing, but of course it’s going to grow if you have a bigger population. The measure they should be using is GDP per capita, and that has fallen for the past five quarters in a row.”

     

  • Volcano shows our lack of sustainability

     

     

    Furthermore, volcanic eruptions are flashes in the pan. They have been happening regularly for aeons, with no discernable effect on global temperatures. When, in a few days, weeks or months, Eyjafjallajokull returns to its state of slumber and our skies are once again choked with aircraft, we will have returned to a way of life that neither our planet nor our economy can support in the long term. Although the current crisis is expensive – airlines are reported to be losing around £130m per day, and stranded travellers are shelling out further millions for accommodation, car hire and extortionate seats on Eurostar – the effects of climate change will cost a lot more. Lord Stern has warned that failing to invest 1-2% of GDP now in the fight against climate change could end up costing us more than 20% of the world’s GDP.

     

    Had we taken steps already to redesign our economy according to the principles of sustainable development, the grounding of our air fleet would have been far easier to take. There would already be affordable, high-speed direct rail links between all major European cities. Businesses would be equipped with state-of-the-art videoconferencing facilities and making fuller use of the formidable communications and information resources of the internet. Aircraft would be more efficient. Airlines would be paying duty on fuel in the same way that car drivers do, changing the economics of travel in a way that favoured more sustainable alternatives. Citizens would be used to holidaying closer to home. Only those with enough money and pressing reasons to fly would be inconvenienced.

     

    Sadly, these more fundamental questions are largely ignored, especially in the runup to the general election. As David Blunkett recently told me at a post-budget breakfast, and as a senior member of shadow cabinet confirmed to me in confidence, voters have become more sceptical and less concerned about climate change, while scientists are more concerned and convinced than ever that it is both real and damaging. Concerns over short-term economic performance, and some blunderous decisions by climate scientists at the University of East Anglia, have allowed our politicians to sweep this important issue under the carpet.

     

    Little wonder, then, that some environmentalists are indulging in a certain amount of schadenfreude. Their argument: if we insist on closing our eyes to the threat of climate change, if we insist on making the wrong choices in our business and personal lives, if we deny our addiction to air travel and fail to develop better solutions, then we deserve to suffer when the airports are closed.

     

    I don’t share this sentiment. No one benefits from this temporary chaos, and few people will overhaul their lifestyle just because they can’t fly for a week or two. But I fear for our future when I see that, no matter how much evidence we gather about our effects on the climate, water, biodiversity and our own wellbeing, we cannot bring ourselves to find a better way to live.

     

    By definition, what is unsustainable cannot go on indefinitely. If we need to change, as we do, then we need to start right away, and we need this change to be deep and lasting. We could start by electing politicians who are prepared to present honestly both the exciting opportunities and the occasionally painful changes required to bring about a fulfilling, rewarding, healthy and lasting future for our species. We could reconsider our obsession with growth fuelled by consumption; as the respected economist Kenneth Boulding said: “Anyone who believes exponential growth can go on forever in a finite world is either a madman or an economist.” And we could begin a serious debate about how to limit the size of our population without undermining the right of people to choose how many children they have. All of these are vital issues, all of them present economic opportunities, and none of them is being adequately addressed by our political leaders.

  • Voter anger as Tasmanian stalemate continues

    Voter anger as Tasmania stalemate continues

    Felicity Ogilvie, ABC April 19, 2010, 7:00 pm

     

    As another day of negotiations between Tasmania’s minority government and The Greens ends in stalemate, some Tasmanians are getting frustrated at their leaders’ inability to form a stable government.

    It has been more than a month since the state election brought in a hung parliament.

    Labor and the Greens have tried to do a deal but their negotiations have stalled.

    The Chamber of Commerce is warning that unless a stable government is formed soon, the state is going to miss out on more than $1 billion worth of investment.

    Spending is down, unemployment is up to 5.7 per cent and a business group says major investment is on hold because there is no clear majority in the Parliament.

    Most Tasmanians thought they were going to get a Liberal government until the Governor told Premier David Bartlett to stay on.

    Then Labor tried to broker a deal with the Greens last week offering Greens Leader Nick McKim a ministry, but so far he is resisting because his party wants three ministries.

    But with the Premier tied up in COAG talks, and no sign of a new offer, another Greens MP Kim Booth has refused to deny he has been lobbying the Liberal Party to reconsider a deal.

    Voters on the streets of Hobart are frustrated.

    “It would be nice to have stability and be able to then go in to the future,” one said.

    “I mean, they’re botching it all up basically,” another said.

    “I think they’re a bunch of liars and they just don’t do what they say they’re going to do,” another frustrated voter said.

    Hare Clark system

    Under the Hare Clarke voting system five members are elected from five electorates.

    Basically a politician who only gets 17 per cent of the vote can be elected to Parliament.

    ABC election Analyst Antony Green doubts the Hare Clarke will be abolished.

    “Well, if the Labor Party and the Liberal Party got together and changed the Electoral Act then they could get rid of it,” he said.

    “But I would find it hard to believe that in the current climate the Liberals would do anything like that because they’d be condemning themselves to permanent opposition based on the vote of the last state election.”

    The Tasmanian Chamber of Commerce and Industry says minority government is bad for business.

    “There is certainly a lack of investment and small business confidence is still quite weak, so actual trading conditions are getting very difficult and having this political instability – a lack of investment in public infrastructure – is continuing to drag on the state economy,” the chamber’s senior economist Richard Dowling said.

    “So the economy really is at a crossroads at the moment and unless we can start to see some more major large scale investment companies in Tasmania, it’s going to be very difficult for those smaller businesses to continue to support the higher levels of employment that they have now.”

    Mr Dowling says more than $1 billion worth of manufacturing and real estate projects are on hold.

    “No investor would be committing hundreds of millions of dollars to an economy where there is such political uncertainty about whether a government will even be capable of instituting its reform agenda, getting its legislation through parliament,” he said.

    “So it will take some months before that’s bedded down and investors start to come back to the negotiating table about their approach to Tasmania.”

     

  • Tough line on immigration hurts Labor

     

    The government’s decision 10 days ago to suspend for three and six months respectively the processing of Sri Lankans and Afghans who arrive by boat is backed by 58 per cent of voters.

    But Labor’s primary vote has fallen 3 percentage points in a month to 39 per cent.

    It all flowed to the Greens, whose support jumped from 9 per cent to 12 per cent. The Coalition’s primary vote was steady at 42 per cent, its first lead on primary votes since September 2008 when Malcolm Turnbull became leader.

    The loss of primary support left Labor clinging to the narrowest of leads on a two-party-preferred basis over the Coalition – 51 per cent to 49 per cent. The gap was last this narrow in June 2006.

    The Nielsen pollster John Stirton said it could be argued that ”the Rudd government’s new stance on asylum seekers has not won over one Coalition voter but has lost Labor votes to the Greens. There are other issues in play, of course, but it would appear that this is an important one for Green voters.”

    The poll coincides with the announcement yesterday that the mothballed Curtin detention centre near Derby, in remote Western Australia, will reopen to house those arrivals whose processing is suspended.

    This drew an angry response from the Greens and refugee groups, who said the government was embracing the ”desert detention mentality” of the Howard government.

    The Herald poll, taken from Thursday evening to Saturday night, sampled 1400 voters. It confirmed that immigration and population were hot issues.

    More than half, or 54 per cent, felt immigration levels were too high. This was an increase of 11 points since November. Also, 6 per cent felt levels were too low and 38 per cent felt they were about right, down from 43 per cent in November.

    Concern over immigration is much greater than in August and September of 2001 when the Howard government was milking the asylum seeker issue in the lead-up to that year’s election.

    Back then, 41 per cent felt immigration levels were too high, 10 per cent felt they were too low and 41 per cent felt they were about right.

    Now there is also concern about the Treasury estimate that the population, at present 22 million, will reach 36 million by 2050. Of those polled, 51 per cent felt it was too many people, 27 per cent said it was just right, and only 2 per cent felt it was too few.

    Since the release of the population projection, the opposition has been seeking to link illegal immigration with population growth.

    When the Treasury released its estimate, the Prime Minister, Kevin Rudd, initially embraced it, saying he welcomed a ”big Australia”. The government has since shunned the number as a target and appointed Tony Burke as the Population Minister to develop a strategy.

  • Volcanic eruptions and ash clouds explained

     

    The bubbles cause the magma to froth violently and burst out as a volcanic eruption. When the boiling fragments of liquid magma hit the cold air they freeze into individual dust particles, driven upwards towards the high atmosphere by the power and heat of the eruption.

    As the turbulent torrent rushes out it rips and pulverises rocks from the volcano, adding to the growing cloud of ash.

    “Think about when you cough. Not all of the material that comes out is from lower down, some is dragged from further up as well,” says Colin Macpherson, a volcano expert at Durham University.

    Even if it does spread, the high-altitude ash cloud is unlikely to settle on the ground or even be visible from it. The curious are advised to wait until sunset, when they could be in for a treat. The retreating light could be scattered as it bounces from the shiny dust particles, which can enhance the red colour and bring stunning displays. The gigantic eruption of Mt Krakatoa in Indonesia in 1883, the loudest recorded bang in history, threw out so much ash that spectacular sunsets were recorded for years afterwards.

    The dust can also help reduce global warming. The effect of the Iceland ash cloud will be small but larger eruptions help to cool the planet as they reflect sunlight back into space. The 1815 eruption of Mt Tambora in Indonesia produced so much volcanic ash that it triggered the “year without a summer” that brought widespread failure of harvests across Europe, famine and economic collapse.

  • Global warming monitoring needs to find ‘missing heat, say scientists

     

    “The heat will come back to haunt us sooner or later,” Trenberth said. “The reprieve we’ve had from warming temperatures in the last few years will not continue. It is critical to track the build-up of energy in our climate system so we can understand what is happening and predict our future climate.”

    Although the rise in surface temperature in recent decades is the most well-known consequence of the thickening blanket of greenhouse gases around the Earth, it represents just a tiny fraction of the extra heat trapped. Most of the extra solar energy heads straight into the oceans, where it is stored as warmer water. Some goes into melting glaciers and polar ice, as well as warming the land and atmosphere.

    Writing in the journal Science, the scientists say their calculations show that current measurements can only account for half the extra heat trapped by human emissions. Much of the rest is probably in the deep ocean, they say. Some heat increase has been detected in the upper ocean, but there is no routine monitoring below depths of about 3,000m.

    Fasullo said: “Global warming at its heart is driven by an imbalance of energy. More solar energy is entering the atmosphere than leaving it. Our concern is that we aren’t able to entirely monitor or understand the imbalance. This reveals a glaring hole in our ability to observe the build-up of heat in our climate system.”

    The missing heat is important, they say, because it could be released as weather phenomena such as El Niño, in which the upper waters of the tropical Pacific ocean warm, and La Niña, which often follows. La Niña events have been linked to cold weather, while El Niños drive storms.

    The scientists say: “How can we understand whether the strong cold outbreaks of December 2009 are simply a natural weather phenomenon, as they seem to be, or are part of some change in clouds or pollution, if we do not have adequate measurements?”