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  • Solar Industry To Hit US 77B in 2015

    March 9, 2010

    Solar Industry To Hit US $77B in 2015

    Boston, United States [RenewableEnergyWorld.com]

    As the books close on what was a turbulent 2009 for the solar industry, Lux Research said that the solar market will soon see the lopsided supply and demand that characterized much of the last year return to equilibrium. According to the new report Solar’s Shakeout: Europe Loses Leadership as China Rises,” strong demand growth in Asia and the U.S. will push the market to 9.3 GW in 2010, hitting a dollar value of US $39 billion.

    Building from there, continuing price reductions for all types of solar technology are expected to open new markets and help the solar industry reach $77 billion in revenue and 26.4 GW in capacity by 2015.

    A large portion of the growth is expected to come from China, which in the last few years has become large manufacturer of solar modules and materials, but not yet a large buyer of them. Lux said it expects China to be the world’s largest solar market in 2015.

    The report underscores, however, that the renewed balance between supply and demand will arrive only after a wave of company failures and lower utilization rates.

    Lux analyzes economic competitiveness and other drivers for the industry’s six major technologies, crystalline silicon (x-Si), cadmium telluride (CdTe), thin film silicon (TF-Si), copper indium gallium diselenide (CIGS), high concentrating photovoltaics (HCPV) and  concentrating solar power (CSP).

    “We found that solar’s short-term pain will enable it to exceed growth expectations over the very long-term,” said Ted Sullivan, a senior analyst for Lux Research, and the report’s lead author. “The volume of solar installations will grow at a 23% annual rate from 2010 to 2015, but revenue will grow by just 14%, as prices fall due to remaining over-capacity. While current subsidies in China and elsewhere will help soak up some of that capacity, there will be widespread company failures throughout the value chain first.”

    The report updates earlier market size and demand forecasts, extends Lux Research’s outlook through 2015, and adds three new geographies — Czech Republic, New Jersey, and Ontario — due to their high levels of subsidies and rapidly developing markets.

    Among the key findings are that capacity remains well above demand — signaling violent changes ahead.

    Lux expects the supply and demand curves to move abruptly together over the next few years due to company failures. Demand will also increase in producing regions such as China, prompted by government subsidies and other factors.

    Low-cost x-Si technologies will continue to dominate the marketplace, but thin-film and CSP will gain market share.

    Lux said that as financing begins to return to solar in 2010, crystalline silicon players will continue to use low price as a weapon against new technologies that don’t share its “bankability” or scale. However, new technologies such as CSP, CIGS, and even HCPV technologies are expected to gain at the margins.

    The biggest take away from the report is that solar adoption will be a multi-decade story. Lux said that solar will wildly beat its expectations in the long-term. When it comes down to deploying solar the industry will rely on an energy and construction business model rather than a consumer-oriented one. As a result the report said that solar’s adoption will rely in large part on replacement cycles for residential and commercial roofs and for natural gas power plants.

    For more on the report, click here.

  • Married to the Lehman Mob

     

    It was a world where the desire to grow Lehman’s into a major player capable of taking on Wall Street giants such as Goldman Sachs became so all-consuming that few dared to challenge senior management decisions. Huge gambles were taken without a second thought. It was, Ward says, a world that was doomed to fail. “Even without an economic catastrophe Lehman would have failed. It was too dysfunctional.”

    As part of the “one firm” strategy, which demanded total loyalty, Lehman invaded all aspects of its senior executives’ private lives and became oddly preoccupied with their marital status. Giving a toast at a company dinner one night, Chris Pettit, one of the two deputies to the Lehman chief executive Dick Fuld, said: “Now, look at this! Every single person here is with their original spouse. That is why we are successful. Because our word is our honour.” Pettit later left his wife for a younger woman, which Ward believes broke his career.

    “His closest allies at the firm deserted him,” she says. These included Fuld’s other right-hand man Joe Gregory, who disliked Pettit’s new mistress and once told a colleague that she was “evil”. Pettit was eventually frozen out of Lehman in 1997 and died soon after in a snowmobile accident.

    Ward recounts that during the annual summer retreats at Fuld’s ranch, in Sun Valley, Idaho, it wasn’t uncommon for the chief executive to pull one of his employees aside to find out about his home life. He once asked Bradley Jack, head of banking and later co-chief operating officer, after overhearing an argument between Jack and his wife Karin, “Are you all having trouble?”

    “He really wanted to know,” Karin Jack told Ward. “He didn’t think Brad and I looked happy enough and it really worried him.”

    Some Lehman wives revelled in the “unwritten rules”, which meant that if you were married to a Lehmanite, you belonged to the firm. One was Niki Gregory, wife of Joe, who gave other wives tours of her vast shoe closets at her home. One person on the tour described the closet as being “twice the size of the Jimmy Choo store in New York”. It was filled with Christian Louboutin, Manolo Blahnik and Chanel, in every style imaginable and many that had never been worn.

    Niki Gregory outsourced all her needs to a personal staff of about 30. “I don’t think she ever set a table in her life for a dinner party,” one wife said. But other wives found the social events sponsored by the firm and the annual summer retreat a ghastly ordeal, not least because of Fuld’s obsession with dress code. Evenings on the summer retreat required dresses, jewellery and Blahnik shoes, while they were all expected to don hiking gear for a trek up a mountain. One wife once brought a fake plaster cast so she could pretend she had a broken leg. She was flummoxed when Niki arrived with a real cast on her leg saying she planned to climb regardless.

    Fuld’s requirement that his executives sacrifice all for the sake of the firm, often put unbearable strains on their families. Karin Jack recalls that her child had a seizure on the day the Jacks were supposed to go on a Lehman outing. Rather than excuse her for the day, they landed Joe Gregory’s private helicopter at her home and waited for her. “Can you imagine the pressure?” she told Ward. “I have this really sick child, but I know that if I don’t get on that helicopter it’s going to hurt Brad.”

    Ward reveals that the wives of executive committee members were also expected to support philanthropic causes that Lehman endorsed, including the New York Museum of Modern Art, where Kathy Fuld, Dick’s wife, was on the board. Not only were they expected to attend Moma evenings and charity events with their husbands, but they “were told exactly how much they had to donate”.

    Amid such a testosterone-charged atmosphere, it was not surprising that Lehman was a hard place for women to work. The one woman who rose to the top, Erin Callan, was a beneficiary of a passion Joe Gregory developed, relatively late in the day, at promoting diversity at Lehman.

    Callan, a Harvard graduate born to a New York cop, was a fighter. But she did herself no favours at Lehman, Ward says, by coming to work in low-cut, short dresses that would have been more suitable at a cocktail party. Callan’s looks were often the subject of morning inter-office emails, until she found herself struggling to hold her head above water when the markets started to turn.

    “Her biggest mistake was to accept a job [chief financial officer] she was not up to,” Ward says. “Joe Gregory had no business in appointing her.”

    When Ward wrote her book proposal, she admits that while she knew there was a story, she didn’t know what it would be. Her break came early on in her research, when an anonymous source handed her a sheath of dictated notes from some senior Lehman executives, each giving his or her personal accounts of the two key decades leading up to 2000. The secret document’s pages were commissioned by Joe Gregory, at the time president of the firm, who intended them to be the basis of a sanitised “history” of Lehman Brothers, which never saw the light of day.

    What struck Ward from the notes was that Fuld, Lehman chief executive from 1994, featured so little. Nicknamed by colleagues “the gorilla”, Fuld, so the legend goes, spent a career instilling into his traders that new business was like “blood in the water: go get it”. “It became clear that Fuld was not the tyrant he was made out to be. He was barely mentioned,” Ward says. He emerged from the documents as a man, obsessed with appearances and dress codes, but unwilling to apply himself to the intricacies of risk management, not particularly bright and incapable of making decisions. In contrast, Pettit and Gregory dominated everything.

    Through the notes, Ward also uncovered the story of how a group of working-class friends with high hopes and high ideals, Gregory and Pettit among them, decided to make their mark on Wall Street. Nicknamed the Ponderosa Boys in a reference to the 1960s TV series Bonanza, they drove to work together, went to the gym together and socialised together. All had virtually zero financial training – Pettit was recruited from the Army, Gregory had joined in 1968 as a teenage intern.

    Early on in his career, Pettit made a pledge never to “turn into an asshole” if he made money, something he sadly failed to live up to. Gregory turned into an all-controlling monster, Ward suggests, as he became obsessed with growing the firm and his own fortune. He turned out to be a phony, who bought his own helicopter and seaplane for his commute and would tell other senior executives that his personal annual spending budget was $US15 million ($16.4 million).

    Bizarrely, Ward ends the book by relating a conversation she had with the late Chris Pettit – via a medium. It’s a strange way for a journalist to end such a meticulously researched book but it betrays the affection that Ward built up for Pettit, despite his flaws.

    Ward interviewed hundreds of (living) people for the book, including Hank Paulson, the former Treasury Secretary, and double-checked accounts with the relevant participants. Fuld and Gregory would not talk. “Do I think Pettit was really talking to me? I don’t know,” she says. “He was the man they all tried to erase from the public record. This book is his moment 12 years after he died.”

    But it is more than that too, she adds. “This is not yet one more book about the crash of 2008. Rather it is a parable about the foibles of men, the corrosive influence of money and the dangers of hubris.” And it doesn’t get much more risky than climbing up a mountain in a plaster cast just to prove you love the firm as much as your husband does.

    The Devil’s Casino: Friendship, Betrayal and the High Stakes Games Played Inside Lehman Brothers, by Vicky Ward, published by John F. Wiley & Sons, is out on April 5.

  • Cliimate snapshot reveals things are heating up

     

    ”CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology will continue to provide observations and research so Australia’s responses are underpinned by clear empirical data,” the report says.

    Other findings reveal the past decade was the nation’s warmest on record, sea levels rose between 1.5 millimetre and 3 millimetres a year in the south and east and between 7 millimetres and 10 millimetres in the north between 1993 and 2009, and sea surface temperatures have risen 0.4 degrees since 1960.

    The release of the report comes as many Australian scientists expressed concern over attacks on the science underpinning man-made global warming, fearing it is damaging the reputation of science as a whole.

    The former Australian of the Year and long-time climate campaigner Tim Flannery last month urged climate scientist to talk to the ”confused Australian public” and answer their questions about the science.

    The director of the Bureau of Meteorology, Greg Ayres, told the Herald the purpose of the climate snapshot was to remind the public that the bureau had been collecting objective and observable climate information for a century.

    ”I would like to invite the Australian public to use … the information generated in the national interest to reach an opinion on climate change because it is objective information,” Dr Ayers said.

    He said the trends in temperatures back up the findings of the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change showing human processes, such as burning fossil fuels, was the primary cause of global warming.

    The panel’s findings have been criticised recently because of errors found in its landmark fourth assessment report, including an unsubstantiated claim the Himalayan glaciers could disappear by 2035.

    The UN has invited the InterAcademy Panel on International Issues to conduct an independent review of the work of the intergovernmental panel, which will report in August.

    The CSIRO’s chief executive, Megan Clark, said yesterday that while society would have a debate about the science underpinning climate change – much like previous debates about the link between smoking and lung cancer – the CSIRO’s role was to release ”unemotional” scientific data.

    The release of the report comes as the federal government prepares to refocus its message on climate change after its failure to pass its emissions trading scheme in Parliament last year.

    The government is now expected to focus on the social and environmental consequences of unmitigated climate change.

    The Minister for Climate Change, Senator Penny Wong, is also understood to have held meetings with Australian climate scientists to hone the government’s message on climate science before the election

  • 500 species of plants and animals vanish because of humans, says study

    The survey trawled records and specimens dating back 2,000 years. All but 12 of the 492 species to vanish were lost after 1800. This was attributed in part to the scarcity of records in pre-Victorian times, but also to increased hunting and fishing, loss of habitat to farming, and climate change. “Extinction rates are very high and it’s predominantly down to changes in land use,” said Professor Kathy Willis, a long-term ecologist at the University of Oxford.

    Natural England, a government advisory body that carried out the study, compared the rate of disappearances now being experienced to those during severe global extinction events, such as caused disappearance of the dinosaurs.

    “Extinction rates are 1,000 times higher than natural background rate indicated by the fossil record,” Dr Tew said. “This time it isn’t being driven by a meteorite hitting Earth or a natural catastrophe, but by human activities.”

    Other ecologists said, however, that it was not valid to compare recent events in England with fossil evidence, which represented longer timescales and was not as geographically specific.

    The report, called Lost Life: England’s Lost and Threatened Species, showed that the geographical ranges of many species were being reduced to isolated spots, meaning that children would not experience the same diversity of wildlife as their grandparents.

    The white-tailed eagle and the chough were lost from the North West, the bumblebee vanished from the North East and puffins and blue stag beetles were lost from the South East.

    However, the report offered encouragement, suggesting that conservation efforts, when employed, had been effective. “The red kite, which disappeared by the end of the 19th century, has now been firmly established in the hundreds,” Dr Tew said. “The corncrake, ladybird spider, sand lizard and polecat are all slowly but surely returning.”

    Dr Jane Smart, director of the biodiversity group at the International Union for the Conservation of Nature, said: “We need to scale up and mainstream conservation work.”

  • Oil cartel fears losing control over supply as Iraqi output hits 20-yeat high

     

    The relatively peaceful conduct of the Iraqi election and the signing of a clutch of contracts with foreign multinational companies, including BP, Shell and ExxonMobil, raises the prospect of a surge in Iraqi oil output over the next few years.

    OPEC is expected to agree to maintain its official output at existing levels, but behind the scenes there is concern. Iraq has been suspended from the operation of OPEC quotas since 2003 amid war and civil and political chaos, but the cartel now needs to bring its wayward child back into the fold.

    “There is only one issue, but it’s a tsunami: Iraq,” Leo Drollas, of the Centre for Global Energy Studies, said. With enough investment, the country has the potential to double or even triple its production. “If (Iraq) enjoys a period of stability, it could have a major destabilising effect on OPEC and the oil price.”

    A continuing rise in Iraqi output, just when the IEA is predicting nil growth in demand from Western oil consumers, would not be welcomed by OPEC members.

    The cartel believes that high oil prices are here to stay and many members, including the hawkish nations of Iran and Venezuela, need the present price of $US70 to $US80 per barrel to bolster flagging economies and social-support systems.

  • Fewer homes to be insulated to pay for bungle:Swan

     

    “Certainly it would mean that less houses would be insulated in the long term,” the treasurer told ABC Television on Sunday.

    The government has announced foil insulation is to be removed, or an extra safety switch installed, in 50,000 homes.

    It will also pay for inspections of about 200,000 homes and fix any problems.

    About 1.1 million homes have been insulated so far at a cost of approximately $1.5 billion.

    Mr Swan said it was not possible to put an immediate cost on fixing the mess.

    “But the cost will come from the existing funding envelope,” he said.

    “That is what normally happens in these circumstances.”

    However on Friday, the treasurer had suggested otherwise.

    “It may well be the case that we will have to make adjustments elsewhere in the budget because of these (insulation) adjustments,” he had said.

    On Sunday, he clumsily tried to explain the change of tact.

    He said he was simply pointing out on Friday that “we have a normal budget process going on at the moment where we look at out priorities”.

    Federal Labor won’t scrap the insulation scheme altogether because that would hurt workers.

    “There is an industry out there that has invested … and done the right thing and we think it’s important to do the right thing by them,” Mr Swan said.

    AAP