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  • DETAILED THUNDERSTORM SYDNEY 8.49 PM 24.8.2015

    SYDNEY CBD AREA COPPING HEAVY STORM AND HAIL

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  • climate code red david spratt

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    climate code red

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    As 2015 smashes temperature records, it’s hotter than you think

    Posted: 23 Aug 2015 07:07 PM PDT

    by David Spratt

    There is an El Nino in full swing which helps push average global temperatures higher, and records are being broken, but just how hot is it? For several years, we have heard that global warming has pushed temperatures higher by around 0.8 to 0.85 degrees Celsius (°C).

    But in 2015, that number is not even close.

    Even before this year’s strong El Nino developed, 2015 was a hot year. The first few months of the year broken records for the hottest corresponding period in previous years all the way back to the start of the instrumental record in 1880. Each month, new records fell.

    With the July data in, the US Government’s National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration reported that July was the hottest month among the 1627 months on record since 1880, and the first seven months of the year was the hottest January-July on record:

    The July average temperature across global land and ocean surfaces was 0.81°C above the 20th century average. As July is climatologically the warmest month for the year, this was also the all-time highest monthly temperature in the 1880-2015 record, at 16.61°C, surpassing the previous record set in 1998 by 0.08°C.

    The July globally-averaged sea surface temperature was 0.75°C above the 20th century average. This was the highest temperature for any month in the 1880-2015 record, surpassing the previous record set in July 2014 by 0.07°C. The global value was driven by record warmth across large expanses of the Pacific and Indian Oceans.

    The year-to-date temperature combined across global land and ocean surfaces was 0.85°C above the 20th century average. This was the highest for January-July in the 1880-2015 record, surpassing the previous record set in 2010 by 0.09°C.

    In addition the year-to-date globally-averaged land surface temperature beat the previous record in 2007 by a whopping 0.15°C, and the year-to-date globally-averaged sea surface temperature surpassed the previous record of 2010 by 0.06°C. Every major ocean basin observed record warmth in some areas.

    And, as Joe Romm has reported, “It was especially hot for the 6 billion of us up here in the northern hemisphere, where the first seven months of 2015 were a remarkable 0.3°F (0.17°C) warmer than the first seven months of any year on record — and nearly a half degree Fahrenheit warmer than any year before 2007”.

    El Nino may be strongest on record

     So this year, records are not being broken. They are being smashed, as a strong El Nino (and perhaps the strongest on record) is set to persist through to 2016. El Nino conditions are characterised by a warm band of water across the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean and facilitate the transfer of heat from the ocean surface layer to the atmosphere and are associated with a hotter climate.

    The NOAA’s most recent El Nino update (Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 17 August 2015) reports that:

    All multi-model averages suggest that Niño 3.4 will be above +1.5ºC (a “strong” El Niño) during late 2015 into early 2016.

    (El Nino 3.4 is the zone of longitudes 120 to 150W along the equatorial Pacific Ocean).

    As the chart above illustrates, the projected strength of the El Nino (yellow line) is slightly above the previous strongest such event in 1997 (red dots).

    So hot will 2015 be? The NOAA has already reported that the first seven months of the year was almost 0.1°C above the previous record.  This is a huge amount in a field where changes are often measured in one-hundredths of a degree.

    With a 90% chance of the El Nino persisting into 2016, it is as close as a certain bet can be that 2015 will be the hottest year on the instrumental record.

    And there is probably an even-money chance that the margin will exceed 0.1°C.  This would be an incredible result with scientists shocked at the margin by which records are being broken.

    And there is a good chance that 2016 will beat 2015 to become the hottest year on record.

    It’s hotter than you think

    But much hotter has it got already? The convention is to talk about the amount of warming “above pre-industrial”, that is, before the steam-and-coal industrial revolution, around 1750.

    But the instrumental record used by the major agencies in the US, the UK and Japan does not start till 1880, and it is this period that is often used to provide a “pre-industrial” baseline.  So when we hear that warming so far up to (the average of) the last decade as being 0.8°C or 0.85°C, it is the warming from a 1880 baseline (see light green column in figure below of 0.87°C, based on the NOAA dataset since 1880).

    But the climate around 1750 and 1880 were not the same.  Research using proxy data and modelling shows that between 1750 and 1880 the global average temperature increased by ~0.2°C.

    CLICK TO ENLARGE

    When that is added (dark green column), we find that the real warming from pre-industrial 1750  to the average of the last decade is 1.07°C. It is a shock to see that we are more than half way to the unsafe 2°C “guardrail” favoured by international policy-makers.

    The warming over 1750 pre-industrial to 2014 was 1.17°C.

    And for the first seven months of 2015, the margin is a staggering 1.26°C higher than the pre-industrial level.  Yes, it is a strong El Nino period, and it may drop back for a short while, but 2016 could be just as hot and we may be entering a new phase of accelerated warming.

    Greenhouse emissions continue to soar to record levels, and attempts to clean up and retire some of the world’s dirtiest coal power plants may result in a lowering of the production of aerosols (including black-carbon soot, organic carbon, sulphates, nitrates, as well as dust from smoke, manufacturing and windstorms) which at the moment provide a temporary (~1 week) cooling of 0.8-1°C.

    The leading climate researcher Michael E. Mann says that as fossil fuel use is curtailed, the aerosol cooling impact will lessen. Mann says that “if the world burns significantly less coal…we would have to limit CO2 to below roughly 405 ppm”, a level we will reach in two years.

    A climate emergency requiring levels of action far beyond anything that is currently perceived by policy makers? As temperatures soar to record levels and it is hotter than most people understand, you can bet on that.

  • Joe Hockey: Cut taxes for the rich Chris Bowen ALP

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    Joe Hockey: Cut taxes for the rich

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    The latest politics update from the Australian Labor Party | Unsubscribe
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    Neville —

    Joe Hockey has come out today and argued for lower taxes, particularly for those on higher incomes. This is from the same man who has said Australia has a ‘budget emergency’ and who has doubled the deficit.

    We’ve heard this before. Tony Abbott and Joe Hockey spent all of 2013 saying they wanted lower taxes. They’re now actually taxing people more than at anytime since the Howard Government.

    If Joe Hockey wants to have a serious discussion about making tax cuts he also needs to explain how he plans to pay for them. So far he hasn’t said anything about how he would fund these tax cuts, but we know what options they’ve put on the table: blow out the deficit, make even harder cuts, or raise the GST. We don’t think any of these are good options.

    The reality is Joe Hockey isn’t engaging in a serious policy discussion, he’s just looking for a way to save both Tony Abbott and himself.

    By contrast Labor has a plan to crackdown on large multinational companies avoiding tax which will raise over $7 billion. We’ve also released our policy to wind back some of the overly generous tax concessions for high income earners. These are tax reforms that make a difference to the budget bottom line but are also fair and sustainable.

    Thanks for your support,

    Chris Bowen
    Shadow Treasurer

  • He reported corruption. Now he’s dead. Lydia Cacho with Avaaz

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    He reported corruption. Now he’s dead.

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    Mexican photojournalist Rubén Espinosa was just found tortured and murdered. One of Latin America’s oldest democracies is now one of the most dangerous places on the planet to report the truth. Add your voice to a powerful open letter demanding an end to violence against journalists doing their jobs! When enough of us join, Avaaz will publish it on the front page of key Mexican media:

    SIgn now
    Dear friends,

    Mexican photojournalist Rubén Espinosa was just found tortured and murdered, along with human rights activist Nadia Vera and three other women.

    Freedom of expression is under attack in one of Latin America’s oldest democracies, and Rubén is the 14th journalist killed in the southern state of Veracruz where governor Javier Duarte has made open threats against reporters. Almost none of these crimes have been solved.

    But this case has sent thousands into the streets and set off an explosion in the national and global media. Now Salman Rushdie, Gael García Bernal, Arianna Huffington and hundreds of journalists, writers and artists have signed an open letter demanding justice for journalists in Mexico murdered for doing their jobs.

    The letter is already making waves with the government, but if we add over a million more names, and get it published on the front page of Mexican media, we can drive it home and show that people from every country in the world stand with the freedom of expression fight in Mexico. Add your voice now:

    https://secure.avaaz.org/en/ruben_global_l/?bhPqncb&v=63709

    Mexico now ranks as one of the deadliest countries in the world to be a journalist, on par with war-torn nations like Iraq, Afghanistan and Somalia. And since President Peña Nieto assumed power, attacks on the media have risen by 80 percent.

    For more than a decade Mexico has been wracked by incredible violence as cartels have waged war on each other for control of the lucrative drug trade. A slew of journalists have been killed for reporting on criminal gangs — but experts say many murders can be traced to reporting on political corruption. I know firsthand, death threats in the wake of my own political reporting in Mexico have forced me to flee the country more than once, I have been tortured and incarcerated by corrupted politicians.

    In the southern State of Veracruz where Rubén worked for years, 13 other journalists have been killed in the last few years, all under the administration of a thuggish governor, Javier Duarte. He has consistently threatened reporters, and was apparently so upset by an unflattering photo Rubén Espinosa shot of him that he had the offending magazine removed from news stands all over the State capital.

    In June, Rubén Espinosa told fellow reporters that recently he was being followed and menaced by men in government security outfits. He also said that someone in the State Government threatened him directly, saying, “stop taking pictures if you don’t want to end up like Regina,” referring to Regina Martinez — a journalist murdered in 2012.

    But Ruben’s tragic death could be a turning point in this violence as thousands have gathered to mourn and demand justice in Mexico City.  If we stand with them now, and publish this powerful letter, we will show the government they are under the global spotlight and the whole world wants justice and urgent action to end these murders. Join the call — journalists in Mexico, and everywhere, should be able to do their jobs without paying for it with their lives

    https://secure.avaaz.org/en/ruben_global_l/?bhPqncb&v=63709

    When freedom of expression is under attack, The Avaaz community has reacted time and again. Now it’s time for us to raise our voices to support brave Mexican reporters and rights defenders. Let’s make sure they know they’re not alone. That’s the true meaning of global solidarity. We know it can empower those on the front lines, and powerfully turn situations around.

    They will not silence us,

    Lydia Cacho, Mexican journalist and human rights defender, with the Avaaz team.

    PS – If you’re a journalist or writer, click this special link to join the campaign.

    SOURCES:

    President Peña Nieto: Investigate the Murders of Journalists in Mexico and Establish Mechanisms to Protect their Lives (PEN)
    http://www.pen.org/blog/president-pe%C3%B1a-nieto-investigate-murders-journalists-mexico-and-establi…

    ‘They want to erase journalists in Mexico’ (The Observer)
    http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/apr/11/mexico-fearless-journalist-lydia-cacho

    Writers slam ‘censorship by bullet’ in Mexico (FT)
    http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/982885d2-4501-11e5-af2f-4d6e0e5eda22.html#axzz3j6oRq2tO

    ‘Journalists are being slaughtered’ – Mexico’s problem with press freedom (The Guardian)
    http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/aug/04/journalists-mexico-press-freedom-photographer-ruben-espinosa-murder

    A Gruesome Murder in Mexico’s Last Safe City (The Daily Beast)
    http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2015/08/06/a-gruesome-murder-in-mexico-s-last-safe-city.html

    Mexico, where freedom of the press is being killed (DW)
    http://www.dw.com/en/opinion-mexico-where-freedom-of-the-press-is-being-killed/a-18633241

    No safety for journalists in Mexico (The Intercept)
    https://firstlook.org/theintercept/2015/08/03/no-safety-journalists-mexico/

    Mexico City prosecutor confirms killing of news photographer (Reuters)
    http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/08/03/us-mexico-crime-idUSKCN0Q70V320150803

    Mexican photojournalist Ruben Espinosa found dead (BBC)
    http://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-33753065

  • The John James Newsletter 75

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    The John James Newsletter 75
    22 August 2015
    When everyone is thinking the same, no one is thinking

    John Wooden

    “The US and it’s allies want to keep this monster (ISIS) in check, but they don’t want to destroy it. What the West has done so far has strengthened terrorism not ended it. The proof is that terrorism has spread everywhere, its material resources have increased, and its ranks have swollen.”

    Bashar al Assad

    The 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development
    This Agenda is a plan of action for people, planet and prosperity. It also seeks to end poverty and hunger, and ensure that all human beings can fulfil their potential in dignity and equality and in a healthy environment.
    In September 2015, Agenda 21 Will Be Transformed Into The 2030 Agenda
    the 2030 Agenda is a template for governing the entire planet.
    Humans have already used up 2015’s supply of Earth’s resources – analysis
    Earth ‘overshoot day’ – the day each year when our demands on the planet outstrip its ability to regenerate – comes six days earlier than 2014, with world’s population currently consuming the equivalent of 1.6 planets a year
    EU’s migrant crisis
    A record 107,500 migrants crossed the EU borders last month to outstrip the previous monthly record in June of 70,000. During the first seven months there were nearly 340,000 migrants, up from 123,500 last year,
    Warring Migrant Tribes, Grenade Attacks…What Is Going On In Sweden?
    if you bring intolerant people into your country this is what can happen
    Immigrants in Germany swell to record high 11 million
    How to overtake cyclists – the video all drivers should watch
    The Highway code requires vehicles to give cyclists at least as much space as a car.
    Information and Communication Technologies is radically changing the world
    Not only how we deal with the world and make sense of it, or interact with each other, but also how we look at ourselves and understand our own nature, existence, and responsibilities.
    This is the IT version of my book The Great Field (available in Kindle books).
    Melting Arctic ice in a time-lapsed map
    Scroll to the bottom to call it up
    First almost fully-formed human brain grown in lab,
    A tiny brain could be used to test drugs and study diseases.
    Australian police beat detained woman, marched her naked in front of officers – watchdog report
    I thought this happened ONLY in America
    Millions of Yemenis ‘staring at famine’ as war rages
    UN food agency describes conditions in war-torn nation as “perfect storm” as millions face massive food insecurity.13 million, adding that one in five of the country’s population were suffering from severe food insecurity.
    Yemen after 5 months ‘already looks like Syria after five years of war’
    Entrenched poverty, months of intensified warfare and limits on imports because of an international embargo have contributed to “catastrophic” conditions

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/yemen/11813169/Yemen-already-looks-like-Syria-after-five-years-of-war.html

    The ugly threat of an ISIL with chemical weapons
    The use of chemical munitions is becoming the norm in Syria and Iraq.
    Turkey controls US actions in Syria, to it sole advantage 
    constraints on the US military’s ability to conduct its own campaign or even choose its own targets.
    The Trans-Pacific Partnership arbitration clause 
    When Australia began prohibiting brand logos and requiring grim pictures of smoking-borne diseases on cigarette packs, Philip Morris urned to an obscure clause in a 1993 trade agreement between Australia and Hong Kong to argue that the Australian government’s law amounted to discrimination and an expropriation of a foreign investment. That case, which is pending, illustrates what  TTPP threatens. It allows multinational investors to sue foreign governments for expropriation and unfair or unequal treatment, giving them the ability to bring cases before a special, extrajudicial arbitration tribunal.
    8 potential battery storage technology breakthroughs
    barely a week has gone by without news of some new potential breakthrough. Here are eight of the top developments to emerge from labs worldwide over the last quarter.
    What the Latest Currency ‘War’ is All About
    The heart of the matter is that Beijing has stepped on the gas in a quite complex long game; to liberalize the yuan exchange rate; allow it to free float against the US dollar; and establish the yuan as a global reserve currency.
    China’s Dramatic Rise, and What It Means
    Over the past 30 years, real per capita income has grown by more than 1,300%. Over the last decade alone, China quadrupled its industrial output. It now produces more automobiles than the US and Japan combined.
    The Rise and Fall of Arab intellectual discussion concerning the “Arab Spring” 
    Discussion has shifted in recent years – from one concerning freedom, justice, democracy and rights into a political wrangle between antagonist camps. The people, who revolted across various Arab countries are now marginalized.
    Screen Shot 2015-08-18 at 10.37.39 am
    Pipelineistan — the Iran-Pak-China Connection
    Pentagon Fears It’s Not Ready for a War With Russia
    The U.S. military has run the numbers on a sustained fight with Moscow, and they do not look good for the American side.
    Where are the books? Libraries under fire as they shift from print to digital.
    Print book budgets are slipping — from 67% of acquisitions in 2008 to 59% in 2015 — with reference titles bearing the biggest cuts so far.
    When Bahrain Says You’re Not Bahraini Anymore
    Afraid of losing its grip on power, the Sunni regime is  revoking citizenship. Stateless people no longer possess identity papers and become invisible in the eyes of the law, and without documents, simple day-to-day tasks become impossible.
    Pentagon Fears It’s Not Ready for a War With Russia
    The U.S. military has run the numbers on a sustained fight with Moscow, and they do not look good for the American side.
    Ahead of Australia Visit, Naomi Klein Brands Abbott a ‘Climate Villain’
    She added that Abbott’s climate record is “particularly shocking” given that “Australia is very much on the frontline of climate change.  I find it even more shocking that Australia is a hotbed of climate denial.”
    Greece bailout deal ‘will not work’: Varoufakis
    “Ask anyone who knows anything about Greece’s finances and they will tell you this deal is not going to work.””The Greek finance minister… says more or less the same thin,
    Germany made €100bn profit on Greek crisis
    Greece’s biggest creditor Germany has made a huge profit on the country’s debt crisis over the last 5 years as it saved through lower interest payments on funds borrowed amid investor “flights to safety.”
    India’s war on Greenpeace
    Environmental activists are being investigated, prevented from leaving the country and having their funds frozen. Why is India’s political class lining up to brand them enemies of the state?
  • The 5&5 TONY BURKE

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    The 5&5

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    Neville,

    This was a big week. There were some light moments, and continued instability from the Government but mainly this was a week that was heavy on detail. So let me have a go at summarising not only the colour and movement of the week but some of the detail on jobs, environmental protection, the role of Dyson Heydon in Tony Abbott’s Royal Commission and the labour provisions in the Free Trade Agreement with China.

    BEST:

    1. This week the Government desperately tried to talk about their record on jobs and growth (we know this because the their talking points were leaked to the media twice). On Wednesday, Bill gave a great speech pointing out that under Tony Abbott, Australia has the highest unemployment in 20 years, with 800,000 people currently unemployed in Australia, and even John Howard is saying the outlook for growth is sluggish. While this information is not the Best, Bill’s speech holding the Government to account for their two years of chaos and incompetence was the highlight of this week. He summarised it in the first question on Thursday: “If the last two years have been about jobs and growth, why is unemployment up and growth down?

    2. Last week I gave a plug for the new book from Clare O’Neil and Tim Watts, Two Futures, which discussed what Australia should look like in 2040. This week, Shadow Treasurer, Chris Bowen, launched his book, The Money Men, which takes a reflective look at Australia’s 12 most notable and interesting Treasurers to understand what lessons can be learned in planning Australia’s future. Alan Kohler called the book “brilliant” and like Two Futures, Chris’ book is available in all good book stores. Free advertisement complete.

    3. The government is being dishonest about the contents of the Free Trade Agreement with China. Labor supports free trade agreements but we want them to be a good deal. Tony Abbott has claimed that the agreement still demands jobs have to be advertised in Australia first. This is untrue. Jim Chalmers gave a 90 second speech before Question Time on Thursday showing clause by clause how the agreement fails to guarantee jobs will be advertised in Australia first.

    4. The by-election for the West Australian seat of Canning is four weeks away. The Liberals hold the seat by 11%, so it’s going to be a tough fight to beat Tony Abbott’s pick. This week in Parliament, the Western Australian MPs, Alannah MacTiernan, Gary Gray and Melissa Parke showed how Tony Abbott has abandoned Western Australia, which now has an unemployment rate above the national average and experienced a 0.5% increase in the last month alone. Today, Labor announced our candidate for Canning, Matt Keogh, you can learn more about Matt and how to help him become the next Member for Canning here.

    5. This week the Prime Minister’s office brought Joe Hockey out of hiding (Scott Morrison and Malcolm Turnbull are still locked away). Joe decided, rather than talk about policy or stick to the Government’s talking points, he’d attack Labor MP, Jim Chalmers, for having worked as Wayne Swan’s Chief of Staff (I think Joe’s a bit jealous the IMF has never named him the best Finance Minister in the world). Joe bellowed across the chamber that Jim worked for the worst Treasurer in Australia’s history. This was too much for Terri Butler who reminded the Treasurer that, no, Jim Chalmers had never been employed by Joe Hockey. Not as many people get thrown out of Parliament these days but Terri was shown the door immediately.

    WORST:

    1. Last week we learned Union Royal Commissioner, Dyson Hayden, had accepted an invitation to speak at a Liberal Party fundraiser. The Liberals have tried claiming it wasn’t a fundraiser, despite the invitation reading “all proceeds from this event will be applied to State election campaigning.” On Monday, more documents were released. We learned not only had Dyson Heydon agreed to speak at this event, but he did so while Royal Commissioner and with full knowledge that it was being organised by a branch of the Liberal Party. While I’m typing this, submissions are being made before the Royal Commission asking Dyson Heydon to step aside.

    2. This week the Government launched a bizarre attack on environment groups. It’s another political tactic where the facts don’t add up. The truth is the Adani Coal Mine decision was actually set aside at the request of Environment Minister Greg Hunt! The Government also claims environmental groups are stopping projects, such as the Adani Coal Mine, that create jobs. Let’s check the records. 5,500 applications have received environmental approval under these laws which were introduced under John Howard. Only 0.4% have been taken to court by third party environmental groups, and only 6 of these court cases have been successful.

    Unknown.gif

    3. What the Government didn’t expect when it launched its fight against environmental groups, was a fight against farmers. But as Joel Fitzgibbon pointed out, under the Government’s proposed changes, farming groups won’t have legal standing against big mining companies either. This means if a farmer wants to stand up to a multinational mining company, they have to do it alone, without support from their community or industry groups. By not allowing farming groups to have the legal right to challenge projects, it also means farmers would have to put their property on the line to take legal action. It’s also not clear who would have the right to appeal if the environmental site at risk had no immediate neighbours because it was in the ocean.

    4. Is it a referendum? Is it a plebiscite? No! It’s… well, who really knows? On Tuesday an unnamed Government leaker said Tony Abbott told ministers not to “go off script” after Ministers had been arguing through the media “or else!” The unnamed leaker added: “But that’s the hideous problem – what is our position?” Such is the chaos of Tony Abbott’s leadership, he’s telling his cabinet ministers not to go “off script,” without providing a script.

    5. To be fair, that last point isn’t 100% accurate. On Wednesday morning (and then on Thursday and then Friday) a confidential briefing note sent to Tony Abbott’s ministers gave them a script for what to say when asked about cabinet leaks; the briefing note was promptly leaked. It told ministers to say: “our cabinet is functioning exceptionally well.” I think I’ve worked out why Tony Abbott thinks his two years in office have been good – it’s because it says so in the talking points. It also says his government is unified and everybody likes him. By that standard Tony Abbott must consider the cancelling of next week’s cabinet meeting a resounding success for the Government. The best summary of all this was given by Matt Thistlethwaite. He said the Government was as “chaotic as a Tupperware cupboard”. It’s true. They spent the whole week trying to put a lid on the leaks and just like my Tupperware cupboard, no lid seemed to fit.

    And a final note of support for the cleaners at Parliament House who are still undergoing action to try to get decent pay for the work they do. They are great people and deserve to be treated better than what is currently occurring.

    That’s it for this sitting fortnight. There’s a fortnight break from Parliament and then we’re back. You can also view the #5and5 in graphic form over at the Labor Herald.

    Tony Burke MP

    This week’s #5and5 song of the week is dedicated to the six months since Tony Abbott promised “good government starts today” – here’s Split Enz with Six Months On A Leaky Boat.