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  • Climate scientists withdraw journal claims of rising sea levels.

     

    Siddall said that he did not know whether the retracted paper’s estimate of sea level rise was an overestimate or an underestimate.

    Announcing the formal retraction of the paper from the journal, Siddall said: “It’s one of those things that happens. People make mistakes and mistakes happen in science.” He said there were two separate technical mistakes in the paper, which were pointed out by other scientists after it was published. A formal retraction was required, rather than a correction, because the errors undermined the study’s conclusion.

    “Retraction is a regular part of the publication process,” he said. “Science is a complicated game and there are set procedures in place that act as checks and balances.”

    Nature Publishing Group, which publishes Nature Geoscience, said this was the first paper retracted from the journal since it was launched in 2007.

    The paper – entitled “Constraints on future sea-level rise from past sea-level change” – used fossil coral data and temperature records derived from ice-core measurements to reconstruct how sea level has fluctuated with temperature since the peak of the last ice age, and to project how it would rise with warming over the next few decades.

    In a statement the authors of the paper said: “Since publication of our paper we have become aware of two mistakes which impact the detailed estimation of future sea level rise. This means that we can no longer draw firm conclusions regarding 21st century sea level rise from this study without further work.

    “One mistake was a miscalculation; the other was not to allow fully for temperature change over the past 2,000 years. Because of these issues we have retracted the paper and will now invest in the further work needed to correct these mistakes.”

    In the Nature Geoscience retraction, in which Siddall and his colleagues explain their errors, Vermeer and Rahmstorf are thanked for “bringing these issues to our attention”.

  • Transport projects will happen: Keneally

    Transport projects will happen: Keneally

    AAP February 22, 2010, 2:48 pm 
    Kristina Keneally says NSW is working to reimburse those who lost millions over the CBD Metro.

    AAP © Enlarge photo

     

    Premier Kristina Keneally says she’ll take personal responsibility for the implementation of NSW’s new transport plan, amid scepticism about whether some projects will see the light of day.

    Ms Keneally on Sunday announced her government’s $50.2 billion Metropolitan Transport Plan, which officially scrapped the controversial CBD Metro and reinstated the northwest rail link.

    The transport blueprint contains a mixture of new and previously announced projects, and focuses mostly on western Sydney.

    Spending of $3.1 billion is earmarked for new trains, $2.9 billion for more buses, $225 million for six ferries, and a $500 million expansion of the current light rail.

    However, the 2017 start date for the Epping to Rouse Hill line – a line proposed previously by the Labor government, only to be deferred or scrapped – has some questioning whether the government’s proposals will ever eventuate.

    Asked what guarantees she could give to commuters, Ms Keneally said the plan “is a fully-funded plan that we can deliver”.

    “This is a 10-year, fully funded package,” she told reporters at Parramatta railway station on Monday.

    “It will be written into the budget. It will be written into the state infrastructure strategy.

    “Many of these projects commence this year, particularly the new trains, new buses. We start immediately on the light rail, we start immediately on the geotechnical work and the planning work for the Western Express Line.

    “The cabinet has endorsed this plan, the government has endorsed this plan, and this is our plan for Sydney.”

    Asked if she would take personal responsibility for the success or otherwise of the plan’s implementation, Ms Keneally said: “I take personal responsibility for all plans, and all services delivered by my government”.

    Ms Keneally also lashed out at NSW Opposition Leader Barry O’Farrell’s reluctance to back the blueprint’s $4.5 billon Western Express CityRail service.

    On Fairfax Radio on Monday, Mr O’Farrell declined to commit to the project designed to speed up travel times to and from western Sydney.

    “”We’d want that reviewed by the experts,” he said.

    “It seems like a lot of money for a very small improvement.”

    Ms Keneally called for a bipartisan approach to the proposal.

    “We’d like him to support commuters in western Sydney,” she said.

    “This … is a big plan for western Sydney. It is so disappointing today to see the leader of the opposition refuse to back it.”

    Ms Keneally later told Fairfax Radio that the transport plan made no promises to improve the M4 East motorway, implement the M5 expansion or build a link road from the M3 to the M2.

    “What we are saying, we’re not going to promise things that we cannot fund, that we cannot afford,” Ms Keneally said.

    But the government would bring forward projects if additional funding came from either the federal government or private sector, she said.

  • Future of food

    future of food      (Source New Matilda Com)

    22 Feb 2010

    Tofu-Gate

    Shock: Last week’s headlines about vegetarians being bad for the planet turn out to be completely distorted. Anna Greer looks at how hard the media had to work to get it so deliberately wrong

    Conservative media around the world flipped a collective bird at “smug” vegetarians last week, claiming that a report commissioned by the World Wildlife Fund had found that changes to land use meant that a vegetarian diet was more harmful to the environment than eating meat.

    The London Times reported that “Becoming a vegetarian can do more harm to the environment than continuing to eat red meat, according to a study of the impacts of meat substitutes such as tofu”. The Daily Mail made even more sport out of the study’s findings, announcing that “Meat free diets can be bad for the planet”.

    Unfortunately plenty of other mainstream media outlets, including the Australian, gleefully picked up this reading. In an I-told-you-so editorial, titled “Tuck in and save the planet”, the Australian again ridiculed the idea that eating a lot of meat was a problem: “Now a study for environmental lobbyists WWF, a body not usually noted for its conservative viewpoint, concedes our argument was correct. The study, by Cranfield University, found that turning vegetarian can do more environmental harm than eating red meat.”

    In fact the study found nothing of the kind.

    The WWF’s study was titled How low can we go: An assessment of greenhouse gas emissions from the UK food system and the scope for reduction by 2050. After the reception the study got from the media its authors are not at all pleased at the way some editors have managed to turn their comprehensive research into a green light for business as usual.

    “It’s a good example of journalism clearly failing to serve their readers honestly,” one of the study’s authors, Dr Donal Murphy-Bokern, told newmatilda.com. “It leaves science in an impossible position.”

    What the study actually found was in fact very much in line with the broad argument made by environmentalists advocating a reduction in meat consumption. It found that the UK food system directly accounts for one fifth of the UK’s carbon footprint, and that if indirect consequences such as deforestation are taken into account this rises to almost a third. According to the report, emissions from the food system are dominated by the livestock sector, and livestock rearing alone accounts for 57 per cent of agricultural emissions. Not surprisingly, the study found that reducing livestock consumption is the single most effective way of reducing the carbon footprint of the UK food system. UK meat consumption is more than twice the world average, and three times that of developing countries on a per capita basis.

    “Removing meat from the diet and replacing it with plant foods with similar protein contents reduces the carbon footprint of diet by one fifth,” Dr Murphy-Bokern said. “Removing all animal products removes nearly a third.”

    Red meat currently produces almost four times the emissions of vegetables and legumes in the UK at 19,400 kilo-tonnes of CO2 equivalent emissions in primary production.

    That’s what it said, but what came out the end of the media churner was: The emissions involved in producing meat substitutes are quite high, so eating meat is the green choice.

    How could this happen?

    Certainly, scientific studies are time-consuming to wade through and a busy journalist may make the odd slip-up, but that doesn’t explain how the media’s message differed so greatly from the study’s actual findings or intent.

    The media failed to provide context and one would be forgiven for thinking that the study was merely a comparison of the environmental impact of a vegetarian versus an omnivorous diet, rather than a plan for reducing the global impact of the UK’s food system as a whole. Describing the study, as the Times did, as “a study of the impacts of meat substitutes such as tofu” is misleading to say the least.

    But to really traduce the study’s purpose, the outlets had to go further and completely distort its findings.

    “The Times article ignored the report’s main results and conclusions and focused on a minor part of the study that looked at some potential but unlikely consequences of reducing meat consumption for land use,” Dr Murphy-Bokern said.

    That was the relatively small part of the study that considered some of the ways the UK might change. Amid the clear message that reducing the reliance on livestock would significantly reduce greenhouse gas emissions, the report raised concerns about how the UK’s meat-heavy diet would be substituted if meat consumption was reduced:

    “Our analysis indicates that the effect of a reduction in livestock product consumption on arable land use will depend on how consumers compensate for lower intakes of meat, eggs and dairy products. A switch from beef and milk to highly refined livestock product analogues such as tofu and Quorn could actually increase the quantity of arable land needed to supply the UK. In contrast, a broad-based switch to plant based products through simply increasing the intake of cereals and vegetables is more sustainable.”

    This was a warning that there could be unintended consequences to changes in the food chain if the policies governing it aren’t carefully considered. The study emphasised that more carbohydrates would be a preferable substitution to globally sourced soy-based analogues, which could lead to increased deforestation in countries that produce soy and Quorn (also known as mycoprotein, a patented meat substitute made from processed fungus).

    It’s a valid point — but a complex one — to note that some livestock can live off pasturelands which are not very suited to crops, making these lands productive for food where they might otherwise not be. The result is that some meat products use less arable land than that used for growing high-protein plant-based alternatives. Fair enough, but in focusing on this the media missed the point, and conveniently ignored the rest of the study.

    An honest report of the study would have explained that it identifies food as a significant factor in overall greenhouse gas emissions and outlines the changes needed if the UK is to make a dent in its global greenhouse gas contribution. It also acts as an inventory of emissions from different areas of the food chain and it asks people to consider how their food consumption habits contribute to environmental problems.

    “Food is comparable to transport and domestic energy consumption in terms of its role in personal carbon footprints,” the report stated.

    How low can we go? recommends holistic change to the food system, along with changes at the policy level regarding to how food is produced and what is consumed. A reduction in the amount of dairy and meat consumed in the UK diet — by 66 per cent — is only one part of the study’s recommendations. The study also outlines improvements that can be made through the decarbonisation of energy and improved energy efficiency in agricultural systems, a conversion to organic farming, confining livestock production to land not suitable for other food production, and adopting technology that reduces nitrous oxide emissions from soils and methane from farm animals. It finds that all these measures will be important factors in achieving an emissions reduction of 70 per cent by 2050.

    You’d think there’d be plenty of interesting headlines in that lot. But it seems that rather than reporting the study accurately, what the papers really wanted was a sexy headline that feeds into a growing backlash against environmentalism.

  • Gunns shares tumble in steep first-half profit fall

     

    Shares of Gunns slumped after news of the profit slump, falling to an 11-month low of 73 cents before recovering a little to 77c by late morning, still down 11 cents or 13 per cent.

    The benchmark S&P/ASX 200 index was 1.6 per cent higher.

    Gunns chairman John Gay said that trading conditions in key markets were extremely difficult in 2009, including soft wood chip demand in Japan, and resulted in depressed earnings, with a stronger Australian currency affecting competitiveness in Asia.

    Revenue from wood fibre sales fell 38 per cent on year to $140.6m. This market will remain weak and only gradually improve through 2010, he said.

    The Chinese market is growing, but pricing remains highly competitive due to the strength of the Australian dollar and short-term surpluses of low-priced competing products, he said.

    “The company expects significant earnings improvement and the reinstatement of a dividend payment in the second half,” although this in part depends on the outcome of woodchip price negotiations for 2010, he said.

    Meanwhile, Bell Bay is at “project-ready status to allow us to immediately commence construction on financial close,” which hasn’t yet been achieved, he said.

    Talks with Swedish forest products co-operative Sodra continue over an equity partnership, with talks also underway with purely financial investors, he said.

    Gunns’ board wants to remove what Mr Gay said is the “uncertainty” surrounding the future of the project, with a market update scheduled for April.

    The recent soft market for export woodchips has reinforced the merits of the mill: in a period where wood fibre value was static, the value of pulp increased significantly with a strong outlook, he said.

    “The investment merits of the Pulp Mill project will be enhanced by providing potential investors with the ability to invest in both the Pulp Mill and the underlying forest resource,” so Gunns is restructuring its business to achieve this, Mr Gay said

    An investment product will be set up to facilitate direct investment in the more than $1bn plantation assets held by Gunns, which aren’t reflected in its market capitalisation, he said.
     

  • How Rudd the dud dropped Australia in the alphabet soup

     

    India disaster. Last year Australia degraded relations with the two emerging Asian superpowers.

    Juvenile justice. The plight of young Aborigines is worse than ever, with ideology trumping pragmatism. Children are shipped off to violent foster families while government exhibits a mesmerised inertia in the face of pockets of endemic violence.

    Kaiser. The aptly named Mike Kaiser, former ALP Queensland state secretary and state MP, became the umpteenth poster boy for the Labor patronage machine this month by landing a $450,000-a-year lobbying job with the  national broadband network. The job was not advertised.

    League tables. The government’s one-size-fits-all league tables for schools, plagued by glitches and misleading data, is another centralised scheme that serves as a substitute for tackling the union-imposed rigidities on teacher performance.

    Migration. Permanent migration to Australia surged 550,000 during the first two years of the Rudd government, the highest two-year increase in history. This is at odds with the government’s rhetoric on reducing Australia’s carbon footprint. It was also never mentioned before the election.

    National broadband network. Last year the Rudd government spent $17 million looking for a private partner to co-build the network. The process yielded nothing. The government will now build and operate the network itself at a cost of $43 billion. A money sink.

    Opposition theft. The Rudd government inherited the strongest budget position and banking sector of any major Western economy, which protected Australia from the global financial crisis. The government pretends this was all its own work.

    Power. The national solar power rebate is a political debacle. The GreenPower scheme has failed. The renewable energy trading certificates scheme is in disarray.

    Question time. Question time has blown out by 50 per cent over its traditional running time because of long ministerial answers and incessant points of order, while the time devoted to answering real questions, rather than Dorothy Dixers, has shrunk to less than 30 per cent of question time; a blatant corruption of the process.

    Roof insulation. Send in the fraud squad. A good idea gone bad. Rampant false billing and over-charging. Cowboys everywhere. People dead. Houses unsafe. Systemic overspending. A hapless bureaucracy detached from the realities of the building industry.

    School spending. The $16 billion Building the Education Revolution scheme is bloated with systemic overspending and over-charging. The problems were encapsulated by a builder who told me: “My company is involved in the BER work and it involves mismanagement, overcharging, schools being railroaded into decisions not in their interests, all hidden behind a smokescreen. It is the country’s most expensive political stunt ever.” Another money sink.

    Tax increases. The federal budget in May will begin to reveal the consequences of panic, hubris, overspending and waste as the government seeks to offset its profligacy with higher fees and taxes. Superannuation was just the start.

    Union power. The unions, having bankrolled Labor’s election campaign in 2007, have received their payback, with an increase in union rights and powers. Union muscle-flexing is back, from the mining sector to small business. Endemic corruption, blackmail and violence in the building industry was finally curbed by the Australian Building and Construction Commission. Julia Gillard is shutting it down.

    Vanity. See B, K, O, Q and U.

    Whitlamesque. Spendthrift programs. Empty rhetoric. Self-congratulation. Deficit spending. Debt blowout. Two years of the Rudd government produces 20 years of debt and poses the question: worse than Whitlam?

    X Y Z Generations X, Y and Z They will be stuck with the bill.

  • Effects and dangers of methane gases

    Dr Chris Jardine, author of a major report on methane emissions in 2005, argues that we are wasting precious time by not acting on methane:

    ‘We have been dithering around with Copenhagen and not achieving very much and while that is happening CO2 emissions are going up. You could actually do a whole load on methane emissions and get them down really quickly,’ he says.

    Reducing methane

    Already small efforts are being made to reduce emissions from human sources.

    • In the UK, waste practices are being tightened up to reduce emissions from landfill and research is underway at places like the University of Aberystwyth into changing the diet of cows and sheep to reduce agriculture’s contribution.
    • In terms of rice cultivation, emissions can be cut through hydrological management (reducing the water levels in flooded paddies half way through the growing season before re-flooding again).
    • The gas emitted by mining activity can be captured and Russia for one is known to have significantly cut methane levels throughout the 1990s by fixing leaks and improving its gas pipeline infrastructure.

    But, as with carbon emissions, we appear to have got to a point where further reductions in human sources of methane require harder choices. Do we want to move to a vegetarian diet? Would we accept rice genetically engineered not to produce methane?

    Natural emissions

    The bigger problem with methane is that a large proportion of emissions is not from anthropogenic sources. What’s more, these natural emissions could potentially dwarf the impact of all other greenhouse gas emissions.

    The main natural source at the moment is wetlands, accounting for 30 per cent of all methane emissions and caused by bacteria breaking down organic matter in the absence of oxygen.

    This process could produce more methane if air temperatures rise.


        


    Wetlands

    Dr Vincent Gauci is leading a three-year project to link up on-going UK research under the banner of MethaneNet and has been researching how wetland emissions could be partially negated through the use of pollutants like sulphur.

    In particular, he has looked at how natural and artificial wetlands (rice paddies) respond to sulphur pollution in acid rain.

    The sulphur in the rainfall stimulates non-methane producing microbes to outcompete the methane producing microbes (as shown in the diagram below). This effect has been found to reduce methane emissions from wetlands by as much as 40 per cent.

    However, he admits his findings might not provide a solution to the methane problem.

    ‘If the sulphur does reduce methane emissions what does that say about our continued efforts to clear up sulphur emissions from the atmosphere? Will less sulphur in the air mean more methane emissions?’ he asks.

    Another solution that has been suggested, draining the wetlands, is quickly dismissed by Dr Gauci and other methane experts.

    ‘The minute you drain wetlands you emit CO2 so that is not an option even if it was acceptable in terms of the biodiversity loss,’ says Dr Gauci.

    Professor Paul Palmer, who has recently produced research on tracking methane emissions and is also part of the Methane Network, adds that as soon as wetlands become dried out they also become susceptible to fire that results in large amounts of CO2 and CH4 being released to the atmosphere.

    Biomass

    Biomass in general is another source about whose contribution scientists remain unclear. Current modelling measurements in the atmosphere do not match up with those taken from the ground and biomass is thought to be the missing contributor.

    One speculative theory is that trees could be funnelling methane out of the soil and into the air, although it remains as yet untested.

    Permafrost

    However the uncertainities about biomass and wetlands pale into relative insignificance when it comes to the vast methane reservoirs locked up in Arctic tundra – methane that scientists are convinced was a factor in previous de-glaciations.

    The methane exists in a highly compressed form known as methane hydrates, molecules in which water and methane are bonded under high pressure or low temperature. In the case of the Arctic it is frozen, at least at present.

    ‘At what point does that start to get released,’ asks Dr Jardine, ‘because that is one of the catastrophic feedback loops of releases bringing more warming and so on. I don’t think anyone has got to the bottom of that.’

    Prof Palmer has focused most of his research on wetlands but says the Arctic is where more research is needed.

    ‘This is the particular region of the world where climate models generally agree that we will see high surface warming in the future. Once permafrost melts you will create thaw lakes and the right conditions to produce methane,’ he says.

    Geoengineering

    Ideas to try and influence the climate on a large scale, ‘geoengineering’ have included spraying aerosols into the Arctic stratosphere to reflect sunlight and cut the warming effect. Prof Palmer says such ideas are fraught with unforeseeable problems.

    ‘By pumping aerosols into the atmosphere you’re effectively perturbing a non-linear system. Without a clear idea of the climatic and humanitarian consequences of such a geoengineering approach this is just irresponsible science.’

    Rather than contemplating geoengineering solutions, Dr Jardine says we should be looking at what we are doing today to reduce methane emissions and prevent the methane hydrates being released.

    ‘There is a lot more we could do today on cutting agricultural emissions and on sharing the technology on cleaning up methane emissions from mining with rapidly industrialising countries like India and China,’ says Dr Jardine.

    Useful links

    Methane UK report

    The Methane Network