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  • Metro is doomed as start delayed

     

    The Herald last week published the results of an independent inquiry that recommended the government dump the metros and focus instead on new heavy and light rail projects.

    In recent weeks the government had settled on planning for the construction of an $8 million to $10 million Western Metro, which would travel from Westmead to Pyrmont, to replace the proposal to build the $5.3 billion CBD Metro from Central Station to Rozelle.

    Cabinet sources say while the Transport Minister, David Campbell, is pushing hard for the go-ahead for the Western Metro as soon as possible, Mr Roozendaal and Treasury are blocking it and are likely to succeed.

    Meetings between senior ministers and high-level officials continued through most of yesterday and into the evening.

    ”It is a constant battle against Treasury,” said a senior cabinet source.

    The metro proposal has been rocked by the Herald’s transport blueprint in which rail supremo Ron Christie recommended construction should not begin until 2020. Mr Christie said the government instead should start work immediately on lines between Epping and Rouse Hill, in the north-west, and Glenfield and Leppington, in the south-west. Mr Christie also said work must start on a $2 billion Epping to Parramatta rail line, which would connect with an existing line south to Liverpool.

    The deferral of the project leaves large question marks over what the Premier, Kristina Keneally, will announce in her Land Use and Transport Plan.

    Light rail for the CBD has been mooted, and the government is understood to have ruled out any plan to reinstate a north-west rail link.

    The executive director of Infrastructure Partnerships Australia, Brendan Lyon, said industry had spent $50 million to $60 million so far in the tender process for the metro and there would be compensation claims if the project were scrapped.

    He said the tender costs did not ”include the costs of having those people there on that project when there was an opportunity to have those people doing something else”.

    The opposition’s spokeswoman on transport, Gladys Berejiklian, said the metros were doomed if the Coalition won.

    ”We want to reassure the community – if we do win the next election, our absolute priorities will be to construct the north-west and south-west rail links.”

  • Big firms drop support for US climate bill

     

    But the loan decision in favour of Southern Company, which was framed by the White House as a kick-start for new nuclear plants, was upstaged by the departure of the big three firms from the climate partnership.

    Officials from BP and ConocoPhillips said that the proposals before Congress for curbing greenhouse gas emissions did not do enough to recognise the importance of natural gas, and were too favourable to the coal industry.

    The house of representatives passed a climate change bill last June, but the effort has stalled in the Senate.

    “House climate legislation and Senate proposals to date have disadvantaged the transportation sector and its consumers, left domestic refineries unfairly penalised versus international competition, and ignored the critical role that natural gas can play in reducing GHG emissions,” said the ConocoPhillips chairman and chief executive, Jim Mulva, in a statement. “We believe greater attention and resources need to be dedicated to reversing these missed opportunities, and our actions today are part of that effort.”

    Opponents of climate change legislation said the departure of the big three companies had all but killed off Obama’s last chances of pushing his agenda through Congress.

    “Cap-and-trade legislation is dead in the US Congress and that global warming alarmism is collapsing rapidly,” said Myron Ebell, director of global warming for the Competitive Enterprise Institute.

    Obama this week is stepping up White House pressure on Congress with a series of events intended to show the job-creating potential of his green energy agenda.

    His announcement at a Maryland job training centre of the new nuclear loan guarantees was a key part of the strategy.

    “Even though we haven’t broken ground on a new nuclear plant in nearly 30 years, nuclear energy remains our largest source of fuel that produces no carbon emissions,” he said. “To meet our growing energy needs and prevent the worst consequences of climate change, we’ll need to increase our supply of nuclear power. It’s that simple.” The guarantees would commit the US government to repaying Southern’s loans if the company defaulted. They cover some 70% of the estimated $8.8bn cost of building two reactors at the company’s Vogtle plant, east of Atlanta.

    White House officials said today’syesterday’s announcement reinforced Obama’s pledge in his state of the union address last month to expand America’s use of nuclear energy and to open up offshore drilling.

    Obama has also asked Congress to triple loan guarantees for the nuclear industry, to $54bn from the current $18.5bn.

    The pledge to the nuclear industry was seen as part of a strategy to win Republican support for the climate and energy bill. Expanding nuclear power, which supplies about 20% of the country’s electricity, is one of the few elements of Obama’s energy and climate agenda to win broad-based support. A number of Republican senators have demanded Obama help fund the construction of 100 new nuclear plants over the next decade.

    Lindsey Graham, the Republican who is working closely with Democrats to draft a compromise cap and trade bill, is also on board with a greater role for nuclear power. His state, South Carolina, gets nearly half of its electricity from nuclear power.

    But the subsidies have made some senators as well as environmental organisations uneasy. “It’s a heck of a lot of money,” said the Vermont senator, Bernie Sanders, who is an independent. “The construction of new nuclear plants may well be the most expensive way to go.”The administration is also stuck on a solution for nuclear waste, after shutting down plans to bury the waste in the Yucca Mountain range in Nevada. The administration last month set up a panel to recommend new waste disposal solution.

    Obama acknowledged those controversies , saying: “There will be those who welcome this announcement, and those who strongly disagree with it. The same has been true in other areas of our energy debate, from offshore drilling to putting a price on carbon pollution. But what I want to emphasise is this: even when we have differences, we cannot allow those differences to prevent us from making progress. On an issue which affects our economy, our security, and the future of our planet, we cannot continue to be mired in the same old debates between left and right; between environmentalists and entrepreneurs.”

    The Southern projects must still win licensing approval.

    White House officials said the new reactors could come on line by 2016 or 2017, and would generate 2.2GW. Construction alone would create 3,500 jobs, and the plant itself would create 800 operations jobs.

    The loan guarantees are the first of some $18.5bn in funding originally approved by Congress in 2005.

    Steven Chu, the energy secretary, said the loans were the first of “at least half a dozen, probably more” loans for new nuclear reactor construction. “We have a lot of projects in the pipeline”, he told reporters, but did not indicate a time for further announcements.

    The Southern reactors are to be built with the new Westinghouse AP1000 design, which Chu said was safer and more economical than the older generation of reactors. “If you lose control, it will not melt down,” he said. “Three Mile Island was a partial melt down. It was serious, but on the other hand the containment vessel held.”

    Chu also disputed a report from the Congressional Budget Office that put the risk of default on loans to the nuclear industry as high as 50%. “We are looking at ways to increase ways of building these projects on time and on budget,” he said.

  • U.S, Has (almost) 100.000 Grid-tied PV Systems

     

    US_Installs_Map

     

    About the Data

    The largest number, from California, is based on adding 15% to current California Solar Initiative (CSI) projects to account for the non-IOU installations. 15% may be optimistic, but it is in line with what was happening in 2008.

    Here are the details behind my estimates. The lovely underlying map is from the Open PV project. For links to the original reports and press releases visit SolarInstallData.com, where I try to drop all the data resources I find.

    [apologies for the formatting]

     

    State # systems Source data
    California 72,575 CaliforniaSolarStatistics.ca.gov + 15% for MUNIs. Plus 33,000 systems installed prior to the CSI program (according to CEC data)
    New Jersey 4,894 Report from Clean Energy Program through 12/09
    New York 4,421 NYSERDA 2121 systems installed through 2/10, an addt’l 576 are approved and 496 in process. Long Island press release stated 2,300 systems installed through 12/09. Added LIPA and NYSERDA installed.
    Colorado 3,833 2072 projects in Xcel in 2009, 1413 projects in 2008. Estimated +10% for rest of state
    Arizona 2,700 State summary report as of 4/08 showed 1700 systems. Estimated another 1,000 installed since then based on growth of installers in state.
    Texas 2,000 Austin Energy press release of 1,104 systems as of 12/09 and best guess for rest of state.
    Massachusetts 1,888  Open PV
    Nevada 955 Solar Generations status report through 2009 = 869 incentives paid. Estimated +10% for rest of state.
    Connecticut 830 From State summary, 830 through 12/09, (507 were from CCEF)
    Oregon 735 Oregon Energy Trust chart from 2008 shows 102+116+152+365 for total program
    Wisconsin 715 Open PV
    Maryland 487 Open PV
    Pennsylvania 371 Open PV
    Vermont 276 Open PV
    New Mexico 263 Open PV
    Wyoming 142 Open PV
    Florida 132 Open PV
    Lousiana 69 Open PV
    Montana 56 Open PV
    Minnesota 54 Open PV
    Ohio 36 Open PV
    Tennesse 14 Open PV
    North Carolina 12 Open PV
    Washington 8 Open PV
    Alabama 4 Open PV
    Missouri 3 Open PV
    Iowa 2 Open PV

    Total: 97,475

    There must be more systems out there unreported. Let’s get them counted!

    Excellent resources for tracking the number and capacity of grid-tied PV systems include Larry Sherwood, and his annual market update reports supported by IREC. More recently, the Open PV project from NREL has been compiling actual installation data from utilities, installers, and individuals. I am told by Brendan Heberton from NREL’s Open PV project that a system doesn’t make it into their database unless they have the size, location, cost, and installation date. This is a pretty high bar so the Open PV project is still recruting confirmations from much of the U.S. market. The sales and costs data they are recruiting is going to make a big difference for emerging markets across the U.S.

    Then there is the grandaddy PV database, CaliforniaSolarStatistics.ca.gov. While thre are still plenty of errors and glitches, it is still missing the first 33,000 systems installed in the state (under the previous incentive program), and there is no way to confirm contract price accuracy – the CSI database is the best thing since sliced bread for consumers, regulators, and installers for tracking what is happening in the PV market.

    If you are in a state that seems to be missing a few thousand systems, please help the Open PV project get them reported. If you know of installation reports and data resources not already listed at SolarInstallData.com, email me and we’ll get them on there.

  • Fixers twisted metro files

     

    The Herald has discovered:

    A leading transport consultant, Sandy Thomas, resigned in December in protest at a request to censor his work, because it would have been “materially misleading and deceptive”.

    Public servants linked to the metro have manipulated official data models to bolster the case for the project.

    Tom Forrest, a former Labor adviser appointed to an executive job in RailCorp, amended a consultant’s report which was used in RailCorp’s submission to Planning on the metro.

    A confidential planning document from last October about congestion at Central and Town Hall stations was shelved by RailCorp over fears of political retribution because it undercut the case for the metro.

    A second version of this report, in December, was also shelved.

    After ending his consultancy, Mr Thomas joined the Herald-commissioned transport inquiry, for which he was not paid.

    His resignation letter, obtained independently by the Herald, said: ‘In more than 30 years of preparing technical and legal reports this is the first time I have ever been presented with such a proposition with normal ethical and professional standards apparently having been ‘relaxed’ in favour of ‘political’ considerations to the extent that concepts of honest, frank and fearless internal-to-government advice are now simply deemed unacceptable.”

    Mr Thomas, who declined to comment, discovered assumptions supporting the metro had been manipulated to make other options look less attractive.

    While 2041 population and employment forecasts, and more frequent train services, were used to model the favoured railway plan, alternatives were modelled against 2021 forecasts, which contained fewer services because of lower populations.

    The modelling also used slower train travel times for those alternatives – by as much as eight minutes between Parramatta and the city.

    ”[The] … report you have asked me to compile … is to be ‘entirely positive in tone’ and will not be including any of the ‘offending’ topics, and will therefore, in my view, also be likely to be misleading and deceptive by omission,” Mr Thomas’s letter said.

    ”My concern about the last of these risks has been heightened this morning by your admission that you knew at the time that the STM modelling had been and is being based on lower population and employment estimates than those described in the materials you wrote as inputs to the second report,” he wrote.

    ”This continues a pattern throughout the investigations of several ‘inconvenient truths’, especially about the critical and often dominant inconsistencies in train plan assumptions, being revealed only when queries were raised, rather than volunteered at the outset.”

    In a highly unusual move, the government retained Veitch Lister Consulting to model the metro’s patronage.

    The Herald has established this occurred after a dispute with the government’s own transport modelling unit, the Transport Data Centre, which refused a request to delete the delays associated with passengers changing trains between CityRail and the new metro.

    Alec Brown, a spokesman for the Sydney Metro Authority, said: ”Sydney Metro stands by its modelling, which is robust and extremely comprehensive.

    ”All modelling for Sydney Metro stages 1 and 2, at Central and all other interchange stations, has always included time penalties for switching between metro and CityRail.”

    investigations@smh.com.au

  • Sea-level fears as Greenland ice begins to melt

     

    At present, the ocean watermark is rising at about 3 millimetres per year, a figure that compares with 1.8 millimetres annually in the early 1960s.

    But Greenland’s contribution has more than doubled in the past decade, and scientists suspect climate change is largely to blame, although exactly how this is occurring is fiercely debated.

    Some theories point to air temperatures, which are rising faster in far northern latitudes than the global average.

    A rival idea is that shifting currents and subtropical ocean waters moving north are eroding the foundation of coastal glaciers, accelerating their slide into the sea, especially those inside Greenland’s many fiords.

    Agence France-Presse

  • Reality of Mexico’s green battle

    Reality of Mexico’s green battle

    Felipe Calderón’s fight against climate change should start at home, where pristine natural landscapes are hard to find

    Mexican President Felipe Calderón made international headlines recently with his comments regarding climate change at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, where he called upon developing and developed countries alike to act multilaterally rather than continue endlessly debating over how to tackle the problem.

    Calderón expressed the need for “building bridges” instead of walking away, once again, from a forum with resolutions on paper that fail to materialise as actual policies – much less realities.

    Calderón’s position regarding climate change is coherent with his administration’s current strategy touting Mexico as one of the most biodiverse countries in the world, as well as the venue of the UN framework convention on climate change this autumn. (By the way, the meeting is set to take place in the environmental disaster area that is Cancún, a project that converted an island into an artificial beach packed with human parking lots back in 1974).

    But before allowing Calderón to crown himself International Advocate of Environmental Concerns, let’s do a reality check. If as he says, climate change is a problem that “we are all obliged to attend to”, he should start at home, where the “economic costs associated with trying to tackle climate change” are not the only concern.

    While megadiverse Mexico is home to approximately 10% of the planet’s species, soon, all that fauna will have no place to live. This is because according to Greenpeace, Mexico takes fifth place in world deforestation – which is also, incidentally, a key factor in climate change.

    But beyond any quick consultation of environmental websites, I can state from personal experience that a reform of Mexico’s national park system is urgently needed.

    Over this past year, I have been invited to visit natural reserves in the states of Tamaulipas, Quintana Roo, Oaxaca, Chiapas, Hidalgo, and Campeche by nature photographer Antonio Vizcaíno (who co-authored the award-winning Wildlands Philanthropy: The Great American Tradition) and his team at the local NGO América Natural. Vizcaíno recently published another book of photographs titled, somewhat ironically, En Busca del Bosque Mexicano (In Search of Mexican Forests). And shooting his current project, Mexican landscapes, has been even more of a challenge given that pristine natural landscapes are becoming increasingly hard to find.

    Vizcaíno, who has spent the past 20 years exploring not only Mexico, but the entire western hemisphere, has witnessed the destruction first-hand. And he feels that the most pressing problem Calderón and his team face is land ownership.

    This is because there are no true natural parks or reserves in Mexico, if we define these as lands that are mostly or entirely off limits in terms of human impact. On the map, these areas abound. But in reality, they are conserved solely through the good will of local property owners, often coalitions of indigenous peoples granted parcels under the ejido system that began in the 1930s by President Lázaro Cárdenas. There have been many efforts, both grassroots and top-down, to encourage ecotourism in these reserves and thus preserve them from other activities which involve deforestation, such as agriculture, with varying degrees of success.

    But there are no guarantees, and even forests considered pristine, such as El Cielo in Tamaulipas, are criss-crossed by fences and grazing cattle, while beautiful lagoons and waterfalls in Chiapas are teeming with informal markets, litter, and locals hawking their services as “guides.” Only at one reserve (El Chico, Hidalgo, created in 1898 as México’s first National Park) did I see uniformed rangers. In many other places where tourism is permitted, makeshift toll booths are set up at every property line, and entrance fees must be paid at several points along the way. Hotels encroach on what is officially reserve territory, gobbling up lush mangroves at places like Sian Ka’an in Tulúm. This, despite the fact that the president himself approved legislation in 2007 expressly forbidding any development whatsoever within coastal mangrove forests.

    It’s rather like climate change according to Calderón: natural reserves here in Mexico look very different on paper than they do in reality.