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  • Wator vapour caused one-third of global warming in 1990s, study shows

     

    The experts say their research does not undermine the scientific consensus that emissions of greenhouse gases from human activity drive global warming, but they call for “closer examination” of the way climate computer models consider water vapour.

    The new research comes at a difficult time for climate scientists, who have been forced to defend their predictions in the face of an embarrassing mistake in the 2007 report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which included false claims that Himalayan glaciers could melt away by 2035. There has also been heavy criticism over the way climate scientists at the University of East Anglia apparently tried to prevent the release of data requested under Freedom of Information laws.

    The new research, led by Susan Solomon, at the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, who co-chaired the 2007 IPCC report on the science of global warming, is published today in the journal Science, one of the most respected in the world.

    Solomon said the new finding does not challenge the conclusion that human activity drives climate change. “Not to my mind it doesn’t,” she said. “It shows that we shouldn’t over-interpret the results from a few years one way or another.”

    She would not comment on the mistake in the IPCC report – which was published in a separate section on likely impacts – or on calls for Rajendra Pachauri, the IPCC chairman, to step down.

    “What I will say, is that this [new study] shows there are climate scientists round the world who are trying very hard to understand and to explain to people openly and honestly what has happened over the last decade.”

    The new study analysed water vapour in the stratosphere, about 10 miles up, where it acts as a potent greenhouse gas and traps heat at the Earth’s surface.

    Satellite measurements were used to show that water vapour levels in the stratosphere have dropped about 10% since 2000. When the scientists fed this change into a climate model, they found it could have reduced, by about 25% over the last decade, the amount of warming expected to be caused by carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases.

    They conclude: “The decline in stratospheric water vapour after 2000 should be expected to have significantly contributed to the flattening of the global warming trend in the last decade.”

    Solomon said: “We call this the 10, 10, 10 problem. A 10% drop in water vapour, 10 miles up has had an effect on global warming over the last 10 years.” Until now, scientists have struggled to explain the temperature slowdown in the years since 2000, a problem climate sceptics have exploited.

    The scientists also looked at the earlier period, from 1980 to 2000, though cautioned this was based on observations of the atmosphere made by a single weather balloon. They found likely increases in water vapour in the stratosphere, enough to enhance the rate of global warming by about 30% above what would have been expected.

    “These findings show that stratospheric water vapour represents an important driver of decadal global surface climate change,” the scientists say. They say it should lead to a “closer examination of the representation of stratospheric water vapour changes in climate models”.

    Solomon said it was not clear why the water vapour levels had swung up and down, but suggested it could be down to changes in sea surface temperature, which drives convection currents and can move air around in the high atmosphere.

    She said it was not clear if the water vapour decrease after 2000 reflects a natural shift, or if it was a consequence of a warming world. If the latter is true, then more warming could see greater decreases in water vapour, acting as a negative feedback to apply the brakes on future temperature rise.

  • The game has changed and so should the PM

     

    He could also alleviate the subterranean angst in his own ranks among Labor MPs who are feeling the heat on an ETS in electorates concerned about jobs, and head off industry-funded advertising campaigns that have already had an impact in some areas.

    Yet Rudd, like Climate Change Minister Penny Wong, can’t bring himself to face political reality and dump a dud, at least until there are signs of real international progress that doesn’t make Australia look like it’s tilting at windmills (or coal-fired generators) without effect and at great cost.

    Rudd’s attachment looks dangerously like an ideological commitment to a scheme that is opposed from both ends of the political spectrum and unlikely to find any validating action from the world’s biggest producers of greenhouse gases.

    In part, this reluctance to show any hint of a policy shift is a product of Labor’s successful three-year campaign to equate action on climate change with an ETS, and, specifically, the Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme. This will be defiantly put to parliament next week by Wong without any real hope of passing the Senate.

    Of course, Rudd’s not going to abandon his overall position on climate change or his commitment to market-based solutions to cutting greenhouse gas emissions by putting a price on carbon. But he doesn’t have to keep an emissions trading scheme front and centre of his political campaign.

    If he doesn’t take stock of the domestic and international political conditions and adjust accordingly, he runs the risk of appearing to be as ideologically driven and politically blind to the dangers as John Howard was to the obvious dangers of the Work Choices industrial relations changes.

    The facts have changed dramatically since the 2007 election campaign, when the central point of difference between the Coalition and the ALP was the ratification of the Kyoto Protocol. Rudd ratified the Kyoto agreement, with little practical effect other than slightly lifting Australia’s carbon emissions reduction target, which we are still on track to meet without an ETS.

    The failure of the UN’s Copenhagen climate change conference to forge any sort of agreement out of discussions in which Rudd and Wong were central characters also demonstrates that claims ratification of the Kyoto Protocol would give Australia a world voice and put us “at the table” amounted to little.

    The Liberal Party’s change of leadership and change of heart over supporting a modified ETS completely changed the expectations and possibility of a carbon emissions scheme because the Abbott-led Coalition and the Senate independents believed the CPRS went too far in its objectives and the Greens felt it didn’t go nearly far enough.

    The bill failed in such a manner that the double-dissolution election trigger it delivered was useless even if the government wanted to go to an early election.

    In between times the Copenhagen failure has demonstrated three things: that the world’s biggest carbon emitters, China, the US and India, were not going to agree to any binding or verifiable reduction targets; that the developing world is demanding compensation from the developed world; and that the global emphasis, as demonstrated by US President Barack Obama in his State of the Union speech yesterday, is shifting away from emissions trading to clean energy, such as nuclear power, and technological development.

    As for reducing greenhouse gas emissions, the Greens were quite right to claim yesterday that Wong wouldn’t guarantee that the proposed CPRS would cut carbon emissions, because she couldn’t.

    Not only has carbon emissions trading failed to realistically cut emissions in Europe or assist most European Union nations in meeting their Kyoto targets, but the only target Wong was able to adopt this week was an unconditional cut of 5 per cent by 2020.

    That’s less than a third of the minimum reduction target the government’s climate change adviser Ross Garnaut has advocated, and it’s less than a fifth of the minimum the Greens want. It happens to be the same target Abbott committed to last year, standing under a tree outside his parliamentary office. It’s also a target Coalition climate change spokesman Greg Hunt says can be easily achieved without resorting to a costly ETS.

    As for “business certainty” – the mantra that it’s better for business to know what costs it will face and what demands will be placed on it by providing a firm target and price for carbon per tonne – Wong was unable to provide that in adopting the Copenhagen Accord. When asked about business certainty, Wong said on Thursday: “What we’re saying is: in the absence of those conditions [overseas commitments], the target is 5 per cent.

    “And if those conditions are met, then obviously we’ll be altering the target consistent with the conditions we previously put out.” And that decision, or not, will be taken some time, perhaps, in 2011.

    Rudd really wanted to lead the world on climate change, he wanted to found an ETS and he wanted to do it before Christmas last year so that it could be up and running by 2011.

    He’s been frustrated by political opposition, international intransigence and economic reality.

    Rudd should regroup, refashion his political campaign for an election year and move on to the broader issues of health, tax reform and economic management. Such a step has been made harder by his own rhetoric and political gamesmanship but the facts and political atmosphere have changed, and so should he.

  • US sets 17% carbon emission reduction target

     

    Senator Wong said Australia would not raise its target above 5 per cent until “global ambitions” became clear, including verifiable reductions from China and India.

    In a letter to UN climate chief Yvo de Boer, US climate envoy Todd Stern said: “The US submission reflects President Obama’s continued commitment to meeting the climate change and clean energy challenge.

    “We expect that all major economies will honour their agreement in Copenhagen to submit their mitigation targets or actions.” he said.

    The summit asked nations to report by January 31 whether they would associate themselves with the accord and join efforts to draft a successor to the Kyoto Protocol, whose legal obligations run out at the end of 2012.

  • Gunns 20 Case Goes to Trial

     

    Bob Brown was being sued for writing to Japanese paper companies (at the time 80 per cent of Tasmania’s woodchip exports went to Japanese paper production) and disputing Gunns claims that their woodchips predominantly come from plantations rather than native forest.

    Dr Frank Nicklason was being sued for writing about the possible health effects of decomposing wood chips in Gunns’ export chip piles.

    Adam Burling, along with the kitchen-building grandmother Lu Geraghty, were accused of orchestrating a blockade to stop logging in their community.

    After much legal wrangling and millions of dollars in costs, cases against 16 of the defendants were dropped. The trial for the remaining four — Burling, Geraghty, Brian Dimmick and the Huon Valley Environment Centre — will begin in the Victorian Supreme Court on Tuesday.

    When corporations take legal action against their detractors, the effects often reach far beyond those sued. The spectre of well-financed litigation is enough to strike fear into the hearts of those who might otherwise add their voices to the chorus of critics. Individuals and whole communities can be silenced, fearing they could be next. For the defendants themselves, time and resources are channelled into their case — and away from their initial concern of public interest.

    Legal co-ordinator for the Wilderness Society and author of Gagged, The Gunns 20 and other law suits, Greg Ogle explains the ramifications of the Gunns 20 case:

    “There were certainly examples of people pulling out of activity protesting Gunns’ pulp mill, and of others being afraid even to put submissions into government assessment processes … The litigation also impacted on public debate simply because of the many hours required to address the case. These were hours which were not available for the defendants to spend on the protection of Tasmania’s forests.”

    The Gunns 20 case sent a chill around the island state and across Bass Strait. With what might be termed “instructive” timing, Gunns announced their proposal for a $2.5 billion pulp mill in the Tamar Valley north of Launceston just days after issuing the 20 writs.

    Although the north of the Tamar is no stranger to industry, the valley is also populated by viticulturists who produce 40 per cent of Tasmania’s cool climate wines. Looking at how the wine industry has responded to the pulp mill — and to the Gunns 20 case — illustrates the ways in which SLAPP suits reach beyond particular defendants.

    Wine and tourism are the Tamar’s chief industries: the 58 kilometre Tamar Valley Wine Route boasts 19 boutique wineries and the Valley has over 40 in total. The area’s mainly owner-operated and family-based tourist ventures — restaurants, cafes, bed and breakfast accommodation — are worth approximately $300 million annually. These businesses are certainly likely to register the effects of the mill.

    It is projected that the mill will pump some 30 billion litres of liquid effluent into Bass Strait each year. And daily, it will release 300 kilograms of particulate air pollution into the Tamar Valley — an output which will include so-called “non condensable gases”, which human nostrils up to 55 kilometres away may mistake for the aroma of rotten eggs. The Tasmanian Government has helpfully exempted the pulp mill from adhering to national air pollution limits.

    Aghast at the potential loss of so much fine wine, the Victorian Sommeliers Association (VSA) wrote to its members about the proposed pulp mill. The VSA also considered orchestrating a boycott against Gunns; alongside their timber interests Gunns also has a stake in Tasmania’s wine industry, owning the labels Tamar Ridge and Devil’s Corner. However, the VSA decided against the boycott. President Ben Edwards said the decision was based less on the likelihood of losing a court case against Gunns, and more on the prospect of being dragged through the courts for years, regardless of the outcome. Edwards said the decision was directly influenced by the Gunns 20 case.

    Another example of the chilling effects of the Gunns 20 case could be evidenced in the pages of the University of Tasmania’s student magazine, Togatus. While the folks who advise us on what red to drink with our tagine may not be renowned for their political activism, student-run publications have a reputation for just that.

    When Wilderness Society volunteer Paul Oosting submitted an article likening Gunn’s description of the pulp mill as “world’s best practice” to Orwell’s ‘newspeak’, Togatus refused to publish it for fear of retaliatory litigation.

    Oosting eventually published his pulp mill article on the Tasmanian Times website. He also got the job of pulp mill campaigner for the Wilderness Society and can be heard frequently on Tasmanian radio vehemently criticising the mill and its owners. Even so, Greg Ogle describes the Togatus episode as bringing home to him the adverse effect the case has had on free speech.

    The Gunns 20 case is the most high profile of a new breed of lawsuits, which direct industrial and commercial law at environmental and community protest, using charges of ‘conspiracy to injure’, ‘hindering trade’ and ‘unlawfully interfering with trade and business’. While some of the alleged actions in the case involved a direct stopping of business, most of their case against the Wilderness Society and Greens politicians were about broader political processes like the lobbying of business and government or making statements to the media.

    Ogle argues that law reform, along the lines of anti-SLAPP legislation in the US, is needed to protect the public’s right to participate in political debate and protest: “Legislation must be framed around a positive right to public participation, not around a question of whether a case is an abuse of process, although outlawing such abuses may be part of the legislation. The right to public participation must be paramount.”

    The Gunns 20 case signals the urgent need for Australian legislators to introduce measures to protect community activism from the wrath of corporations scorned. 

    This is the first in a two-part series on the Gunns 20 and the legal issues surrounding public protest and advocacy. Tomorrow, Liesel will look at the history of Strategic Litigation Against Public Participation suits.

  • Challenging times for climate science

     

    Such predictions, I wrote, “challenge some of global warming orthodoxy’s most cherished beliefs”, including the assertion that the north pole will be ice-free in summer by 2013. Latif told me that this is most unlikely to be realised. His work may not undermine the science of manmade warming, but it does challenge standard media representations of its imminent consequences.

    David Rose

    Oxford

     

    • The flawed prediction that Himalayan glaciers are likely to disappear by 2035 (Report, 21 January), after the leaked emails from UEA, will be further ammunition to the deniers. But they mustn’t get too excited. This is not a lapse in climate science but a failure to implement the rigorous procedures that ensure that only substantiated evidence is published. The IPCC must recover from its embarrassment, get a grip and redouble its efforts to show that the evidence for human-induced climate change is real.

    Nick Reeves

    Chartered Institution of Water and Environmental Management

     

    • If Jackie Ashley (Comment, 25 January) were interested in the Conservative record on green issues she would reflect that without my party’s leadership during this parliament Britain would not have had a Climate Change Act, we would have no feed-in tariffs for microgeneration, no smart meters, and no ban on unabated coal plants. In each case the government was forced to reverse its position to fall in with Conservative policy. It has yet to do so on building a third runway at Heathrow, providing energy efficiency improvements for every home, cutting government energy use by 10% during 2010 and approving carbon capture and storage demonstrations. There is not a single instance of this government being more progressive than the Conservative party on green issues.

    Greg Clark MP

    Shadow secretary of state for energy and climate change

  • $300 cost for meter to measure solar feed

     

    Energy Australia, the largest distributor in NSW, said it would provide the new meters free but people would not start receiving their solar tariff money until they are installed at the customer’s expense.

    ”You need the gross meter to be paid under the gross system,” a spokesman, Anthony O’Brien, said. ”However, we don’t anticipate that anyone will be in that scenario as long as they take the right steps to talk to a licensed electrician and have the meter installed.”

    The new metering equipment had to be imported, leading to the delay.

    “We will have meters that have been configured for the gross payment in stock from mid- to late February,” Mr O’Brien said. “As soon as customers have those meters installed we will be able to pay them 60 cents gross from that date. We’ve been working hard to whittle the transitional time down to enable the customer to get the maximum benefit.”

    Many solar panel customers have contacted the Herald saying that the delay in switching to the gross tariff is costing them money. “I tried in December to get a meter so I could start measuring it, but the people in the industry knew nothing about it,” said Michael Mobbs, who has a six kilowatt solar panel system fitted on his Chippendale home.

    “I’ve been to a couple of energy providers and nobody can get any meters – apparently they’re expected some time before June.”

    Mr Mobbs has a two-way meter, allowing him to take advantage of the transitional net tariff, but has calculated – based on his power consumption – that he will lose $385 in the transitional period before July, not including the cost of getting the meter installed to measure the gross tariff.

    Solar panel installation companies the Herald spoke to said people were holding off from investing in rooftop panels until after July.

    The NSW Greens said the scheme should have featured gross tariff payments from the January 1 start date.

    The Greens MP, John Kaye, said the first six months of the NSW Government’s Solar Bonus Scheme will mean solar households will be stuck on a far lower-paying tariff plan.

    “The NSW Government’s incompetence will cost the renewable energy sector as households delay taking up the scheme until the full gross tariff starts in July.”

    The Government introduced the gross feed-in tariff scheme in November, saying it could mean households earn up to $500 a year from the renewable power they generate.

    The NSW Government said this month that it would move to close a loophole by which electricity utilities could keep crediting customers’ bills, until they changed energy providers, instead of paying them in cash.