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The Generator news service publishes articles on sustainable development, agriculture and energy as well as observations on current affairs. The news service is used on the weekly radio show, The Generator, as well as by a number of monthly and quarterly magazines. A podcast of the Generator news is also available.
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  • Research centre maps flood risk

    From The ABC

    A climate research group is warning coastal Queensland communities need to start preparing for the effects of climate change.

    Dr John Hunter from the Antarctic Climate and Ecosystems Cooperative Research Centre says it has designed a new web-based program that can predict the risk of flooding in Cairns and other regions based on sea level rises.

    He says the program allows planners and policy makers to assess the risk of flooding and determine how high above sea level new infrastructure needs to be built.

    “The frequency of flooding events is going to increase significantly,” he said.

    “The average for Australia is that if we have a sea level rise of only half a metre, which is very conservative for this century, you’re going to see flooding events increasing by a factor of something like 300.

    “This means that if you’ve got a flooding event that happens every year at the moment, it’s going to be happening every day by the end of the century.

    “I say it’s a risk-based thing, it gives you the probability of a flooding event during the life of the asset.

    “It includes both the uncertainty of when the next storm’s going to come and also the uncertainty of the projections of sea level rise into the future.”

  • Hot wet Britain faces bush fires

     

    From the Times

    While cautioning that there were still big uncertainties about exactly how severely Britain will be affected, Mr Benn said that many changes, including an increase in average summer temperatures of 2C by 2040 in southern England, were now virtually guaranteed because of the build-up of stocks of carbon dioxide already present in the atmosphere, which will take 30 years or more to be worked out of the climate system.

    He said the report represented a “call to action” for government, businesses and ordinary citizens. It warned that drier, hotter summers could trigger water shortages and Mediterranean-style wildfires, especially in heath and moorland areas such as parts of the Peak District.

    Changing patterns in farming were also likely, with some crops unable to survive and cows and sheep dying from heat stress.

    More crop damage from storms, pests and diseases was also likely, with the spread of new insects from Southern Europe.

    Winters, it predicted, would be characterised by more frequent and intense rainfall with flooding more likely in cities such as Gloucester and Sheffield as well as in coastal areas, where tidal erosion would increase.

    “These results are sobering and we know that these changes will affect every aspect of our daily lives,” said Mr Benn, who added: “If there are those who still don’t think climate change is happening and think we don’t need to worry and we can pull up the bed covers and it’s all going to go away, they are profoundly mistaken.

    Mr Benn also acknowledged that some benefits were possible. Higher temperatures could mean a boost to tourism in some northern areas, the introduction of new crops and higher yields from others.

    Ed Miliband, Secretary for Energy and Climate Change, said the report bolstered the case for Britain to act vigorously to cut its own carbon emissions and to pursue a global deal with other countries at a UN meeting in Copenhagen in December.

    The UK Climate Projections 2009 were produced by the Hadley Centre for Climate Change at the Met Office, funded by the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs. They represent an update of less detailed ones made in 2002. The study sets out a range of changes based on three greenhouse gas emission projections – low, medium and high.

    Under the medium forecast, by the 2080s average summer temperatures in the South East will rise by 2C-6C, while sea levels will increase by 36cm.

    It also predicts a decrease in average summer rainfall of 22 per cent in Yorkshire and Humber and in the South East – which is already short of water – while the North West would experience an increase of 16 per cent in average winter rainfall.

    Under the higher emission projections, London could be up to 12C warmer on the hottest days with temperatures regularly rising above 40C.

    Mr Miliband pointed out that while some warming was inevitable, a successful global deal at Copenhagen to reduce emissions could yet avoid the worst outcomes in the projections.

    Professor John Beddington, the Government’s chief scientific adviser, said: “We know now that some further climate change over the next two to three decades is unavoidable due to past emissions. But what the projections also show is that strong mitigation action now can start to make a real difference by 2050 and lead to very different outcomes by the 2080s.”

  • Climate report describes dysfunctional US

    From The UK Guardian

    South-east

    Summer temperatures in Florida could rise by 4.1C (10.5F), with the heat effect multipled by decreased rainfall under the higher emissions scenario. There would be increased hurricane intensity and rising sea levels leads to loss of wetlands and coastal areas. It would lead to a severe decline in quality of life.

    Mid-west

    Frequent, severe and longer lasting heatwaves in cities – as many as three a year in Chicago under the higher emissions scenario.

    Water levels in the Great Lakes could fall by up to two feet by the end of the century under the higher emissions scenario.

    South-west

    Continued strong warming will threaten flow of Colorado river.

    Alaska

    Has been warming at twice the rate of the rest of the US over last 50 years.

    Temperatures could rise up to a further 5.4C (13F) under the higher emissions scenario. The region should be prepared for drought and increased risk of wildfire.

    North-west

    Declining snowpack is already threatening agriculture. Many salmon species are already threatened

    Costs

    Human health: Rise in deaths due to heatwaves, decline in health because of poor air quality and increase in water borne and insect borne diseases.

    Agriculture: Although some crops will benefit from the longer growing season, heavy downpours could wreak havoc on others. Farmers will be forced to use more pesticides and weed killers against invasive plants. Poison ivy will bcome more abundant and more toxic. Higher emissions scenario would cause a 10% decline in dairy herd in Appalachia.

    Energy: Rising heat index will increase demand on electricity for air conditioning. But water shortages could restrict electricity generation.

    Oil infrastructure, along coast of Louisiana and Florida, is also vulnerable to rising sea levels and intensifying hurricanes.

    Transport: Storm surges and rising sea levels could block the use of ports and coastal airports, roads and rail lines. Six of the top 10 freight gateways are threatened by rising sea levels. Entire road networks on the Gulf Coast could be at risk.

    Ecosystems: Large-scale shifts in species likely to continue. Deserts will become hotter and drier, oceans more acidic. Salmon and trout populations will contract.

  • Feds invest in water efficiency

     “Today’s announcement starts to get the balance back into some semblance of equilibrium. It gives farmers some confidence to invest in water-saving measures on-farm and across regions.

     “Today’s funding commitment comes on the back of the $300 million for on-farm water efficiency programs under the May Federal Budget – a program the NFF pressed hard for.

    “Combined, this type of investment provides irrigators and their communities with a choice between selling back their water entitlements or co-investing with government in water-saving technologies on farm – or, indeed, a combination of both.

    “To date, irrigators have only really had the sale of their water as a sole option.

    “It is also recognition of the role regional Australia plays in underpinning agricultural production, which, in turn, is keeping the Australian economy afloat. It’s good news for producers, good news for environmental needs, supports regional communities by stimulating local employment and keeps farm production and the national economy ticking over.

    “This level of collaboration, which we have long argued is over-due in how Australian deals with drought and a changing climate, will enable farmers to produce more food and fibre with less water. This is a vital food security issue, both here at home and globally, in the face of a deepening world food shortage.

    “The funds announced today will implement modernisation plans developed by a number of infrastructure operators in NSW. The NFF hopes to see the remaining state priority projects, still awaiting the go ahead across the Murray-Darling Basin, triggered in the very near future.”

  • US bill to build green business

    From Renewable Energy World

    “Without a program to support our own domestic manufacturers, policies that create new demand for clean energy will just lead to more imports,” said Angelides. “It is critical that Congress enact legislation that provides direct and substantial investment in clean energy component manufacturing to ensure that jobs are created in the U.S.”

    The IMPACT Act would provide resources for small- and medium-sized manufacturers through a 2-year, $30 billion manufacturing revolving loan fund, which will provide much needed liquidity for domestic manufacturers to improve manufacturing processes and to retool and expand production of clean energy products. The Apollo Alliance estimates that, once enacted, the bill will create 680,000 direct manufacturing jobs and nearly 2 million indirect jobs over five years.

    “We can revive American manufacturing through investment in clean energy,” said Senator Brown. “This bill will help our manufacturers retool, put our auto suppliers back to work, and produce clean energy technologies.”

    Brown’s legislation would also expand and focus Manufacturing Extension Partnerships (MEPs) on clean energy manufacturing. Under Brown’s legislation, the Hollings Manufacturing Extension Partnership, a division of the Department of Commerce’s National Institute of Standards and Technology, would receive $1.5 billion in federal funds over five years to help manufacturers access clean energy markets and adopt innovative, energy-efficient manufacturing technologies.

    “The only way to put our existing manufacturing sector to work, and to scale up to meet the new demand created by the cap and trade program, is to have a dedicated source of funding for investments in component manufacturing,” said Angelides.

    In April, Apollo Alliance released its Green Manufacturing Action Plan (GreenMAP), which detailed aggressive steps to scale up production of American-made clean energy systems and components while making U.S. factories more energy efficient. Developed in collaboration with industry, labor, environmental groups, and academic experts, the Apollo GreenMAP called for direct federal funding for clean energy manufacturers to retool facilities and retrain workers to develop, produce and commercialize clean energy technologies.

  • Investors shun North Sea despite rebounding oil prices

     

    “Businesses have already found 2009 a turbulent, tough year and the UK offshore oil and gas industry is no more immune to these pressures than the rest of the economy,” Oil & Gas UK said in a statement.

    “There is growing concern that the rapid fall in oil prices and the freezing of capital markets will impair investment and suppress production in the North Sea, with wider implications for companies and employment across the supply chain.”

    Oil prices, despite a solid rally in recent months, languish more than 50 percent beneath record highs that were struck one year ago.

    “Even the short term, recovery in oil prices of the last two or three months is way too early to positively impact people’s decision (to invest) in the long term,” Bob Keiller, chief executive of energy industry services provider PSN, told AFP on the sidelines of the conference.

    “The volatility (of oil prices) has affected the confidence in investments,” added Keiller.

    Widely-traded Brent North Sea crude oil currently stands at about 70 dollars a barrel, more than double its level in December when the sharp global recession severely dented demand for energy.

    Prices however remain more than half their level of July 2008 when fears about supply disruptions had sent them rocketing to record highs above 147 dollars.

    According to Oil & Gas UK, expenditure on North Sea exploration was down 70 percent at the start of 2009 compared to a year earlier.

    Investment which totalled five billion pounds (5.9 billion euros, 8.1 billion dollars) in 2008 could fall to 2.5 billion pounds this year, the industry body said.

    Despite the recent rally in oil futures, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries argues that the current prices is preventing investment in fresh exploration projects worldwide.

    Malcolm Webb, president of Oil & Gas UK, noted that erosion in capital expenditure for North Sea exploration had begun in 2006, when oil prices were far below current levels.

    In a sign of the bad times for the industry, the British government has postponed indefinitely the sale of North Sea exploration sites.

    “Investing in the future is not easy in the current environment,” said Bernard Looney, managing director of oil giant BP’s North Sea business.

    “Our statistical review shows that UK (oil) production has dropped 38 percent since 2000 to 2008. When I listen to people discuss what I call the seductive run up in oil price, I am worried that this is masking a much less talked about fact — gas prices.

    “They continue to fall. When you assume that 50 percent of North Sea production is gas, the average North Sea realisation today is still around 40 dollars per barrel of oil equivalent.”