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  • Will Emerging Markets Make Renewable Energy More Democratic?

     

    Over the years, the industry has been expanding to new countries, dividing the market among a larger number of countries every year. But in an economic downturn, with price declines amid an oversupply of solar panels and wind turbines, that trend could be accelerating. And as more countries pass a variety of climate-change legislation, industry insiders predict that — in the coming years — the clean-energy oligarchy will become ever more democratic.

    This change may be most visible among developing countries, such as China, which has doubled its wind market in each of the last four years. With 6.3 gigawatts (GW) of new wind-power installations and 12.2 GW of total installed capacity in 2008, the Chinese market was the second-largest — after the United States — last year. And the GWEC expects the market to double again this year, in spite of the recession. India was the third-largest wind-energy market last year, with 1.8 GW of new installations, and had the fifth highest total capacity, with 9.6 GW.

    While the rest of the list of top wind markets comprise the usual suspects, including Germany, Spain, Italy, France and the U.K., the list of the fastest-growing wind economies holds some surprises. Among countries with at least 50 megawatts of annual wind installations, the five fastest-growing markets include:

    • Hungary, which grew more than fifteenfold to 62 megawatts in 2008 from a mere 4 megawatts in 2007;
    • Norway, which expanded its market nearly 13 times to 102 megawatts in 2008 from 8 megawatts in 2007;
    • Brazil, which rose ninefold to 94 megawatts from 10 megawatts;
    • Portugal, which increased nearly sixfold to 712 megawatts from 123 megawatts and
    • Turkey, which more than quadrupled to 345 megawatts from 97 megawatts.


    Courtesy Jennifer Kho, Data Source: GWEC

    Steve Sawyer, secretary general for the GWEC, said he expects to see a boom in Turkey before the other emerging markets in Europe. The country’s rapidly-growing economy, combined with “no indigenous fossil-fuel resources to speak of,” tremendous wind resources and a government that’s greening up to enhance its bid to join the European Union, has contributed to the speedy growth of wind power in Turkey, he said. The country’s windiness and high electricity prices make wind projects competitive without any major subsidies, he added.

    Brazil is likely to continue its strong wind growth — the country already has one of the cleanest electrical grids in the world, mostly dependent on hydro power, he said — while Chile and South Africa also have huge potential to be a bright spot in the next few years, Sawyer said.

    Chile has few of its own energy sources, except hydropower, and in May, lost much of its natural-gas supply for several days when Argentina halted exports to deal with a supply shortage. That volatility helped attract substantial wind-energy investments, Sawyer said, adding that Chile could see several big projects come online by the end of this year or next year. One challenge, however, is that the Chilean market isn’t large enough to sustain a manufacturing industry, and will likely rely on Brazil to supply its turbines, he said.

    Meanwhile, South Africa has far and away the world’s most progressive policies on climate change, Sawyer said. Under former president Thabo Mbeki, the government made a strong commitment to renewables, he said. The country in April announced a feed-in tariff of 1.25 South African rand (about US $0.15) per kilowatt-hour of wind. Sawyer said he hopes the new administration of President Jacob Zuma, who was sworn in earlier this month, will continue to support renewables.

    Sawyer also sees Romania, Bulgaria, Hungary, Poland, Turkey, and possibly the Czech Republic, growing “very quickly.” In addition, Pakistan has installed its first commercial wind farms and has enormous growth potential, he said, but it will take “a good deal more political stability there for that market to really bloom.”

    Aside from the above-mentioned countries, Michael Liebreich, CEO of New Energy Finance, a London-based research firm, said that renewable energy is becoming popular in Romania, which has shot up to No. 4 on the list of top clean-energy markets. He added that several Latin American countries, including Peru and Mexico, also popped on to the Top 15 list in the first quarter. Only one Latin American country, Brazil, made it on the list last year, he said. “Latin America is a big secret [market],” he said. “We expect several Latin American countries to do very well.”

    Emerging Solar Stars

    Meanwhile, the list of emerging solar-power markets has little in common with that of emerging wind markets. The fastest-growing solar markets above 10 megawatts of annual installations include

    • Czech Republic, with 54 megawatts installed last year, up nearly elevenfold from 5 megawatts in 2007;
    • Greece, with fivefold growth to 15 megawatts in 2008 from 3 megawatts the previous year;
    • South Korea, with expanded more than five times to 258 megawatts from 50 megawatts;
    • Spain, which more than quadrupled to 2.5 gigawatts from 526 megawatts and
    • Italy, which also more than quadrupled to 271 megawatts from 60 megawatts. (As noted earlier, Spain and Italy already are among the world’s largest wind markets, although not the fastest-growing.)

    Jenny Chase, manager of the Solar Insight Service at New Energy Finance, said feed-in tariffs drove most of this growth last year. And she expects many of the emerging markets to keep growing. Chase forecasts that the Czech solar market will grow 48 percent this year to 80 megawatts, based on a generous tariff and relatively easy permitting, but said that financing will remain a challenge.


    Courtesy Jennifer Kho, Data Source: New Energy Finance

    She predicts the Greek market will more than triple to 50 megawatts, in spite of an almost impenetrable bureaucratic process for applying for government incentives and permits. New legislation passed in January should speed up the process, at least “in theory,” she said. Chase also expects the Italian market to more than double to 671 megawatts, based on a strong feed-in tariff and a fairly sunny climate on par with Greece. Solar developers in Italy may struggle with financing, as with everywhere else right now, as well as some permitting bottlenecks — although nothing as bad as in Greece, she added.

    Still, the outlook isn’t all sunny. Chase predicts that the Spanish and South Korean markets will decline this year. Spain’s shrinking market hardly comes as a surprise, as the country — which grew to 2.5 gigawatts last year based on a generous incentive, capped its incentive program at 500 megawatts this year. That represents an 80 percent drop in the market size, expected to put the Spanish market — which surpassed Germany to be the No. 1 market last year — back below Deutschland.

    “Spain is currently trying to figure out how they’re going to pay their annual feed-in-tariff bill,” Chase said. “Spain is a bit of a disaster area and the government is probably trying to exclude as many projects as possible from the 2008 feed-in tariff.”

    In South Korea, a similar feed-in tariff cap could slow the market, she said. Rumors suggest that large projects could be capped at as little as 50 megawatts, she added, although she has not been able to confirm the number.

    Overall, Chase expects this to be “a shockingly hard year” for solar companies. The New Energy Finance forecast ranges from a bearish 5.5 gigawatts, which would represent a 5 percent fall from a 5.8-gigawatt global market in 2008, to a more bullish 29 percent increase to 7.5 gigawatts.

    “We just cannot see as much demand as there potentially could be supply,” Chase said. “I think the solar industry will be really surprised at how low solar prices can go.” Low prices, of course, could be good for the industry in the long-term. “It will open up new markets that we haven’t even considered,” she said. 

    Any growth this year will have to come from a larger number of markets, she said. Many of the emerging markets have suffered from pent-up demand because, even if they wanted solar panels last year, anyone who had panels available sold them to Spain, she said. “Now manufacturers are interested in talking to them.”

    Comparative Development

    In terms of deployment, wind power is about a decade ahead of solar, and that goes for the degree of market-share distribution as well, Sawyer said. “Solar is where wind was 10 years ago, with most of the market in two to three countries — all Spain and Germany, with a little bit in the U.S. and Japan,” he said. “In wind, it was all Germany and Denmark, and a little bit of Spain, and now that’s changed. We’ve got a dozen countries over 100 megawatts.”

    The largest wind market, the United States, accounts for only 20.8 percent of the cumulative installed capacity and but accounted for 30.9 percent of the new wind installations last year, while Spain made up some 45 percent of the global solar market last year.

    Sawyer expects the top 10 wind markets to keep growing, continuing to capture the lion’s share of the world market for some time. But he forecasts the top 10’s market share will drop by about the middle of the next decade, when the industry comprises 20 or 25 major markets.

    It makes sense that more developing countries are turning to wind power, he said. While the solar industry isn’t yet large enough to fulfill the electricity needs of rapidly developing economies at an affordable price, wind is, Sawyer argues. “Wind is competitive now, unless you have large quantities of cheap coal and no concern about the climate,” he said. “Wind is many times the cheapest and best option for adding large quantities to the grid in a very short amount of time.”

    Freelancer Jennifer Kho has been covering green technology since 2004, when she was a reporter at Red Herring magazine. She has more than nine years of reporting experience, most recently serving as the editor of Greentech Media. Her stories have appeared in such publications as The Wall Street Journal, the Los Angeles Times, BusinessWeek.com, CNN.com, Earth2Tech, Cleantechnica, MIT’s Technology Review, and TheStreet.com.

     
  • A Moral Dilemma

    Garrett Hardin’s “lifeboat ethics” essay addresses this question.8 Those

    who argue that it is a global concern appear to avoid the issue of national sovereignty and responsibility in terms of both cause and remedies. Overlooked is the unforgiving fact that, regardless of an individual nation’s Footprint, in a world where nearly all nations exceed their maximum sustainable population level, at best, a zero-sum situation exists. Providing capacity to other nations implies reducing one’s own nation’s sustainable population level and Footprint  —and continual declines in standard of living. In a literal sense —especially considering immigration— it also intimates that individuals in exporting nations are being replaced by those in capacity importing nations —those inhabitants in or from the other less well-situated and frequently unaccountable countries.

    If Hardin’s “lifeboat” ethics and it displacement connotations is misplaced, then capacity-importing nations must be able to continue current practices without limit.
     

  • Sustainablity Initiatives

     

    Sustainability Education

    Education for Sustainability – Reorientating Australian schools for a sustainable future (PDF). John Fien. Tela Paper 8. Australian Conservation Foundation. 2001

    Education for sustainability involves approaches to teaching and learning that integrate goals for conservation, social justice, appropriate development and democracy into a vision and a mission of personal and social change.

    It seeks to develop the kinds of civic virtues and skills that can empower all citizens and, through them our social institutions, to play leading roles in the transition to sustainability.

    Sustainability Issues

    Teaching for a Sustainable World: International Edition. Griffith University and the Department of the Environment, Sport & Territories. 1997

    We need a new ecological ethic, an ecologically oriented value system based upon empathy with other species, other people and future generations, and respect for natural and social limits to growth.

    We need social systems, institutions and practices that support careful planning in order to minimise threats to nature and the quality of life.

    Issues of ecological sustainability and social justice

    There are great differences in the availability and use of resources around the world, with poverty and need in some areas matched by overproduction and over-consumption in others.

    • How can the over-consumption, waste and misuse of resources by some people be reduced?
    • How can the severe poverty that causes many to exploit the earth just to survive be eliminated?
    • How can the pressure on the environment from both causes be overcome?

    Some economic activities do great harm to environments, resources and communities.

    • How can economic activity be made of benefit to the communities and the companies involved, and without critical damage to the environment?

    Economic growth in some parts of the world is so high that it is leading to the production and consumption of many items that are super-luxuries and use resources that could be used to satisfy the needs of many of the world’s poor.

    • How can the resources consumed by such luxuries be redirected to aid the poor or be conserved for future generations?

    Relatively high population densities and growth rates in certain parts of the world, and the associated pressure on the local resource base, are symptoms of the legacy of colonialism and present-day structural inequalities in the world economic system rather than causes of environmental problems. Appropriate social development lies at the heart of the solution to population and environmental pressures.

    • How can the nexus between the environment, social development and population growth be formulated to ensure the sustainable use of resources?

    The indigenous and farming peoples of many countries have developed an ethic of sustainability and associated land use practices that have preserved their culture and harmony between people and nature for millennia.

    • How can the rights of these people be maintained and the knowledge and wisdom they possess be shared with others in all parts of the world?

    Women and young people have a vital role to play in environmental care and development, now and into the future. They have viewpoints, skills and interests that can help maximise the potential for sustainable development.

    • How can the wisdom, courage and talents of women and young people be used as a model for sustainable development policies and practices?

    The most effective arena for action on sustainability and justice issues is the local community.

    • How can people best organise themselves locally – and liaise with others nationally and globally – to collaborate in the movement towards sustainable development.

    Regional Sustainability

    Regional Futures – Sustainability in our regions. Australian Conservation Foundation. 2000.10

    Those regions that are tapped into the global economy are booming, while those regions based on traditional rural and industrial enterprises tend to be falling behind.

    A new agenda to support regional development is urgently required, and while the focus has tended to be on the social and economic aspects of the regional divide, a truly sustainable long term future for all regions must be underpinned by a healthy environment. Indeed environmental action in the regions can build social and economic sustainability.

    Sustainable Cities and Towns

    National Summit on the Future of Australia’s Cities and Towns – Communiqué. 2004

    To be successful into the future, Australia’s cities and towns must:

    • be diverse, vibrant and inclusive communities.
    • be globally competitive.
    • reduce ecological impacts.
    • enhance equity of access.
    • demonstrate good quality design.

    Strategies include:

    • a national, shared vision.
    • an integrated governance framework.
    • a good information base.
    • a national settlement strategy.
    • active citizen programs.
    • better infrastructure.
    • a sustainability audit of taxes, charges, funding and pricing.

    A National Action Framework will be considered by ministers within their own jurisdictions and at the-next Ministerial Council meeting.

    Components of the National Action Framework include:

    • a shared national vision.
    • benchmarking framework.
    • office of sustainable communities.
    • national information exchange and analytical tools.
    • community engagement.
    • reduced car dependency.
    • equitable broadband connectivity.
    • managed growth and decline.
    • cities for climate protection.
    • national infrastructure funding program.
    • a signed Kyoto protocol.
  • Learning to live with climate change will not be enough

    Another 69 years would pass before scientists warned a U.S. president of the potential for serious climate disruption, and still another 30 years before the first report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

    Now, facing climate destabilization, our choices for action are said to be adapting to a warmer world or mitigating the severity of climate change by sharply reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Of course, neither adaptation nor mitigation alone will be sufficient, and sometimes they may overlap. But in a world of limited resources, money, and time we will be forced often to choose between the two. In making such choices, the major issues in dispute have to do with estimates of the pace, scale, and duration of climatic disruption. And here the scientific evidence tilts the balance strongly toward mitigation.

    The argument for adaptation to the effects of climate change rests on a chain of logic that goes something like this: Climate change is real, but will be slow and moderate enough to permit orderly adaptation to changes that we can foresee and comprehend. Those changes will, in a few decades, plateau around a new, manageable stable state, leaving the gains of the modern world mostly intact ? albeit powered by wind, solar, and as-yet-undreamed advanced technologies.

    In other words, the developed world can adapt to climatic changes without sacrificing much. The targets for adaptation include developing heat- and drought-tolerant crops for agriculture, changing architectural standards to withstand greater heat and larger storms, and modifying infrastructure to accommodate larger storm events and rising sea levels, as well as prolonged heat and drought. These are eminently sensible and obvious measures that we must take.

    But at some point there are limits to what can be done and the places in which such measures can be effective. With predicted changes in Arguments for mitigation are rather like those for tuning the water off in an overflowing tub before mopping. temperature, rainfall, and sea level rise, it is unlikely that we can “promote ecosystem resiliency” or adapt to such changes with “no regrets,” as some have suggested. On the contrary, ecological resilience and biological diversity will almost surely decline as climatic changes now underway accelerate, and going forward we will surely have a great many regrets ? chiefly of the “why did we not do more to stop it earlier” sort.

    Accordingly, more extreme adaptive measures called “geoengineering” are being discussed. These include proposals to fertilize oceans with iron to increase carbon uptake, or injecting sulfur dioxide into the upper atmosphere to increase the reflective albedo and thereby provide temporary cooling. But since the effects of geoengineering are largely unstudied and its risks largely unknown, it is a “true option of last resort” in the words of one analysis. Accordingly, “the best and safest strategy for reversing climate change is to halt the buildup of greenhouse gases,” as a recent article in Foreign Affairs suggests.

    Proponents of mitigation, on the other hand, give priority to limiting the emission of heat trapping-gases as quickly as possible to reduce the eventual severity of climatic disruption. The essence of the case for mitigation is that:

    Growing scientific evidence indicates that the effects of climate change will be greater and will occur faster than previously thought.

    The duration of climate effects will last for thousands of years, not decades.

    We are in a very tight race to avoid causing irreversible changes that would seriously damage or destroy civilization.

    The effects of climate destabilization can be contained perhaps only by emergency action to stabilize and then reduce CO2 levels.

    Practically, climate mitigation means reversing the addition of carbon to the atmosphere by making a rapid transition to energy efficiency and renewable energy. Arguments for mitigation, in other words, are rather like those for turning the water off in an overflowing tub before mopping. Those advocating mitigation believe that we are in a race to reduce the forcing effects of heat-trapping gases before we cross various thresholds ? some known, some unknown ? tipping us into irretrievable disaster beyond the ameliorative effects of any conceivable adaptation.

    There are five reasons why focusing on mitigation is a far-better choice than emphasizing adaptation. First, the record shows that climate change is occurring much faster than previously thought, will affect virtually every aspect of life in every corner of Earth, and will last far longer than we’d once believed. The small cloud that Arrhenius saw on the distant horizon in 1896 is growing into a massive storm, dead ahead.

    The effects of climatic destabilization, in other words, will be global, pervasive, permanent, and steadily ? or rapidly ? worsening. Given the roughly 30-year lag between what comes out of our tail pipes and Adaptation targets will often move faster than we can anticipate as climate disruption becomes manifest. smokestacks, the climate change-driven weather effects we now see are being caused by emissions that occurred in the late 1970s. What is in store 30 years ahead when the forcing effects of our present 387 parts per million of CO2 are manifest? Or further out when, say, the warming and acidifying effects of 450 parts per million of CO2 ? or higher ? on the oceans have significantly diminished their capacities to absorb carbon? No one knows for certain, but trends in predictive climate science suggest that they will be much worse than once thought.

    The implications for climate response strategies are striking. For example, it is now obvious that impacts will change as atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases rise, meaning adaptation targets will often move faster than we can anticipate as climate disruption becomes manifest in surprising ways. To what climatic conditions do we adapt? What happens when previous adaptive measures become obsolete, as they will?

    Similarly, at every level of climate, forcing the changes will be difficult to anticipate, which raises questions of where and when to intervene effectively in complex ecological and social systems. Are there places in which no amount of adaptation will work for long? Given what is now known about the pace of sea-level rise, for example, what adaptive strategies can possibly work in New Orleans or South Florida, or much of the U.S. East Coast, or in those regions that will likely become progressively much hotter and dryer ? and perhaps one day mostly inhabitable ? under drastically worsened conditions?

    Second, the implications of the choice between adaptation and mitigation do not fall just on those able, perhaps, to temporarily adapt to climatic destabilization, but rather on those who lack the resources to adapt, and to future generations who will have to live with the effects of whatever atmospheric chemistry we leave behind. The choice between mitigation and adaptation, in other words, is one about ethics and justice in the starkest form. A few wealthy communities in the developed world may be able to avoid the worst for a time, but unless the emission of heat-trapping gases is soon reduced everywhere, worsening conditions will hit hardest those least able to adapt. The same can be said far more emphatically about future generations.

    There is, third, a “stitch in time saves nine” economic argument for giving priority to mitigation. Stabilizing climate now will be expensive and fraught with difficulties, but it will be much cheaper and easier to do it sooner rather than later under much more economically difficult and ecologically harrowing conditions. Nicholas Stern, for one, estimates “that if we don’t act [soon], the overall costs and risks of climate change will be equivalent to losing at least 5 percent of global GDP each year, now and forever.”

    Fourth, efforts to adapt to climate change will run into institutional barriers, established regulations, building codes, and a human tendency to react to ? rather than anticipate ? events. There are, in economist Robert Repetto’s words, “many reasons to doubt whether adaptive measures will be timely and efficient, even in the U.S. where the capabilities exist.”

    In the best of all possible worlds, effective adaptation to the changes to which we are already committed would be complicated and difficult. In the real world of procrastination, denial, politics, and paradox, however, In the real world of procrastination, denial, and politics, anything like thorough adaptation is unlikely. anything like thorough adaptation is unlikely. Rather, it will be piecemeal, partial, sometimes counterproductive, wasteful, temporary, and ? ultimately ? largely ineffective. In contrast, measures pressing energy efficiency and renewable energy, as complicated as they are, will be much more straightforward, measurable, and achievable. And they have the advantage of resolving the causes of the problem, which has to do with anthropogenic changes to the carbon cycle.

    Finally, beyond some fairly obvious and prudent measures, federal, state, and foundation support for climate adaptation gives the appearance that we are doing something serious about the looming climatic catastrophe. The political and media reality, however, is that efforts toward climatic adaptation will be used by those who wish to do as little as possible to block doing what is necessary to avert catastrophe.

    The conclusion is inescapable: Adaptation must be a second priority to effective and rapid mitigation that limits the scale and scope of climatic destabilization. The priority must be given to efforts toward a rapid transition to energy efficiency and deployment of renewable energy. Until we get our priorities right, the emission of greenhouse gases will continue to rise beyond the point at which humans could ever adapt. In ecologist George Woodwell’s words, “The only adaptation is mitigation.”

    We were first warned of global warming over a century ago and have lingered in increasingly dangerous territory in the belief that we can continue to burn massive amounts of fossil fuels without risking serious The emission of greenhouse gases will continue to rise beyond the point at which humans could ever adapt. climate destabilization. That fantasy is rapidly coming to an end. According to NASA’s James Hansen, we must move decisively to return CO2 levels to 300 or 350 parts per million. If we wait too long to prevent climate change, we will ? perhaps sooner than later ? create conditions beyond the reach of any conceivable adaptive measures. With sea level rise now said to be on the order of one to two meters by 2100, for example, we cannot save many low-lying places and species we would otherwise prefer to save. And sea levels and temperatures will not stabilize until long after the year 2100.

    There will be unavoidable and tragic losses in the decades ahead, but far fewer if we act to contain the scope and scale of climate change now. No matter what we do to adapt, we cannot save some coastal cities, we will lose many species, and ecosystems will be dramatically altered by changes in temperature and rainfall. Our best course is to reduce the scale and scope of the problem with a sense of wartime urgency. And we better move quickly and smartly, while the moving’s good.

    David W Orr is the Paul Sears Distinguished Professor of Environmental Studies and Politics at Oberlin College. He is the author of five books, including Design on the Edge: The Making of a High Performance Building. His next book, Down to the Wire: Confronting Climate Collapse, will be published this summer.

    ? From Yale Environment 360, part of Guardian Environment Network

    Copyright Guardian Newspapers Limited 2009

  • Green energy overtakes fossil fuel investment, says UN

    Green energy overtakes fossil fuel investment, says UN

    Clean technologies attract $140bn compared with $110bn for gas, coal and electrical power

     

    Green energy overtook fossil fuels in attracting investment for power generation for the first time last year, according to figures released today by the United Nations.

    Wind, solar and other clean technologies attracted $140bn (£85bn) compared with $110bn for gas and coal for electrical power generation, with more than a third of the green cash destined for Britain and the rest of Europe.

    The biggest growth for renewable investment came from China, India and other developing countries, which are fast catching up on the West in switching out of fossil fuels to improve energy security and tackle climate change.

    “There have been many milestones reached in recent years, but this report suggests renewable energy has now reached a tipping point where it is as important – if not more important – in the global energy mix than fossil fuels,” said Achim Steiner, executive director of the UN’s Environment Programme.

    It was very encouraging that a variety of new renewable sectors were attracting capital, while different geographical areas such as Kenya and Angola were entering the field, he added.

    The UN still believes $750bn needs to be spent worldwide between 2009 and 2011 and the current year has started ominously with a 53% slump in first quarter renewables investment to $13.3bn.

    Counting energy efficiency and other measures, more than $155bn of new money was invested in clean energy companies and projects, even though capital raised on public stock markets fell 51% to $11.4bn and green firms saw share prices slump more than 60% over 2008, according to the report, Global Trends in Sustainable Energy, drawn up for the UN by the New Energy Finance (NEF) consultancy in London.

    Wind, where the US is now global leader, attracted the highest new worldwide investment, $51.8bn, followed by solar at $33.5bn. The former represented annual growth of only 1%, while the latter was up by nearly 50% year-on-year.

    Biofuels were the next most popular investment, winning $16.9bn, but down 9% on 2007, as the sector was hit by overcapacity issues in the US and political opposition, with ethanol being blamed for rising food prices.

    Europe is still the main centre for investment in green power with $50bn being pumped into projects across the continent, an increase of 2% on last year, while the figure for America was $30bn, down 8%.

    But while overall spending in the West dipped nearly 2%, there was a 27% rise to $36.6bn in developing countries led by China, which pumped in $15.6bn, mostly in wind and biomass plants.

    China more than doubled its installed wind turbine capacity to 11GW of capacity, while Indian wind investment was up 17% to $2.6bn, as its overall clean tech spending rose to $4.1bn in 2008, 12% up on 2007 levels.

    A number of Green New Deals – government reflationary packages designed to kickstart economies and boost action to counter climate change – have been laid out by ministers around the world.

    The slump in global renewable ­investment during the first quarter of 2009 has alarmed the UN and New Energy ­Finance, the London-based consultancy that compiled the figures for the UN.

    Michael Liebreich, chief executive of NEF, said the second quarter had revealed “green shoots” of recovery, which indicated this year could end up with investment at the upper end of a $95bn to $115bn range, but still a quarter down on 2008 at the least.

    About $3bn of new money had been raised via initial public offerings or secondary issues on the stock markets in the second quarter, compared with none in the first three months of this year.

    The New Energy Index of clean tech stocks, which had slumped from a 450 high to 134 by March, had since bounced back to 230, while more project financing had been raised in the last six weeks than in the 13 before that, he said.

    But Steiner and Liebreich are still anxious that politicians do more to stimulate growth.

    “There is a strong case for further measures, such as requiring state-supported banks to raise lending to the ­sector, providing capital gains tax exemptions on investments in clean technology, creating a framework for Green Bonds and so on, all targeted at getting investment flowing,” said Liebreich.

    It is important stimulus funds start flowing immediately, not in a year or so, he added: “Many of the policies to achieve growth over the medium-term are already in place, including feed-in tariff regimes, mandatory renewable energy targets and tax incentives. There is too much emphasis amongst some policy-makers on support mechanisms, and not enough on the urgent needs of investors right now.”

  • Australia Feels Chill as China’s Economic Shadow grows

     

    The government of Prime Minister Kevin Rudd, which generally favors the sales, has been savaged as naïvely cozy with China, a view some in his own military appear to share. Opposition politicians have flogged the specter of an Australian future more or less as a giant open-pit mine in which the locals toil, but Beijing takes the profits.

    “It’s the Communist People’s Republic of China, 100 percent Communist-owned, buying up sections of the country and minerals in the ground which they will then sell to the Communist People’s Republic of China,” said Barnaby Joyce, who is a leader of the National Party in Parliament. “And we’re going to live off the commission on the way through. They’ll try to make sure we get as little as possible.”

    But a few months after the first of the deals was announced, a sharp initial backlash has given way to a more subtle queasiness over whether Australia’s place in the region, anomalous but secure for so long, is about to be altered by the new Chinese giant looming over its horizon.

    Nor is Australia alone. From the Philippines to Vietnam, China’s neighbors are recalculating the benefits — and potential deficits — of life in the shadow of a newly dominant nation.

    Australia has always been the West’s outpost in the East, the British penal colony with American spunk and European joie de vivre. But seemingly overnight, China has become Australia’s biggest trading partner, one of its biggest tourism customers, the largest single buyer of its government debt, a major buyer of farmland and real estate.

    China’s hunger for steel gobbles up half of Australia’s iron ore exports, and its textile factories buy more than half of Australia’s wool. Over 120,000 Chinese students throng to Australian schools and universities.

    Although China’s purchases remain dwarfed by cumulative investments of the Americans and the British, they are growing much faster.

    And suddenly, Australians are stepping back, realizing that their new best friend is someone they really do not know very well, much less trust.

    “The momentum has shifted from being broadly receptive to these deals to having a hard think at this,” said Alan DuPont, who heads the Center for International Security Studies at the University of Sydney. “This is not just about China and Australia. It’s about how the world sees China playing its role in the future as a great power.”

    Surviving Corporate Invasions

    This is not a new question. More than a century ago, Australians fretted about becoming vassals of the resource-hungry British Empire; then, in the mid-1900s, they feared becoming an American subsidiary. When Japan Inc. began snapping up companies in the 1970s, suspicion of Tokyo ran rampant.

    The British and Americans proved good corporate citizens, however, and Japan’s expansion faded amid economic problems. Now, Australians are asking whether China will be different.

    In one way, it assuredly is. Western companies, if at one time equally ravenous for Australia’s resources, are not direct appendages of their national governments. The dominant shareholder in major Chinese resources companies is the Chinese government.

    China has 115,000 state owned companies; the cream are more than 150 giants controlled by the central government. Those corporations — in mining, steel, finance, communications and other crucial areas — seek to make profits much as Western companies do. Government boards audit them, appoint their top executives and evaluate their performance, but in general, the companies insist, Communist Party leaders do not meddle in business strategy.

    Even if that is true, China has long insisted on maintaining state control over companies in crucial industries, blurring the line between national and corporate interests.

    Take steel. China makes more steel than any other nation, but it is highly dependent on iron ore imports to keep its mills humming. That raises suspicions that China may want big stakes in mining companies now to help ensure stable prices in the future.

    But if China works to keep iron ore prices stable, that might benefit steel producers more than it does Australian mining companies. That concern has only grown in recent months, as China’s largest steel producers have rejected as insufficient offers of lower prices from Australian mining companies.

    There is also the question of whether China’s stake in strategic industries — like its investment in United States Treasury bonds — could one day morph from a business deal to an instrument of diplomatic influence.

    The Chinese bids for parts of the three Australian mining companies — Fortescue Metals, Oz Minerals and Rio Tinto Ltd. — have been raptly watched for Australia’s answers. So far, they are mixed.

    The smallest deal, an $840 million bid for part of Fortescue, a struggling iron ore miner, won Australian regulators’ quick approval. But Australia’s foreign investments review board, the central gatekeeper for overseas purchases, vetoed part of a $1.8 billion bid for Oz, the world’s second largest zinc miner. The reason: Australia’s military raised the prospect of Chinese espionage at an Oz mine not far from an aerospace test site. A pared-down deal was approved after the suspect mine, the core of Oz Minerals’ assets, was excised from the deal.

    But it is the proposed purchase by the Aluminum Company of China, or Chinalco, of $19.5 billion in Rio Tinto stock, bonds and mining rights — China’s biggest investment in a foreign company — that has caused the most angst.

    Chinalco, which bought 9.3 percent of Rio Tinto in 2008, proposed taking a larger stake after the global economic collapse drove Rio into financial straits. If approved, the new investment would give China an 18.5 percent share of the world’s third largest mining company.

    Chinalco unequivocally asserts its independence. “Chinalco operates as a commercial entity, at arm’s length from Chinese political processes,” the company’s Australian spokesman said in a written response to questions.

    Many Australian experts agree. Modern Chinese corporations are state-run in name only, Ross Garnaut, an economist, former Australian ambassador to Beijing and himself the head of a gold-mining company, said in an interview. In practice, he said, they are just like their Western counterparts — fiercely competitive, and focused on profit.

    “You don’t know anything about the dynamics of relations between major corporations in China if you think a major aluminum company like Chinalco would sacrifice its profits to increase profits for one of its rivals in the steel industry,” he said. Even Australia’s antitrust regulators have concluded that the Chinese would be unable to influence the price of iron ore, a crucial Rio Tinto product, were the Rio deal to go through.

    Intentions Arouse Suspicions

    Yet other experts have a much different view of China’s intentions. Paul Glasson, a Shanghai-based Australian who brokers deals between Chinese and Australian businesses, notes that China’s domestic reserves can meet demand for fewer than half of 45 strategic minerals. By 2020, it will have sufficient supplies of only six.

    “In a nation of 1.3 billion people, with the complex issues they face, with such resource deprivation, would it be wise for the government to abdicate that responsibility to S.O.E.’s?” he asked, using the abbreviation for state owned enterprises. “Claiming the head doesn’t know what the body is doing just makes the situation difficult.”

    Mr. Glasson says state ownership actually brings advantages — among them, deep pockets and a focus beyond the next quarterly statement — that any merger partner might find attractive. But Beijing’s denial of a role in its state owned companies, he said, is creating a credibility problem.

    In fact, Chinalco would be very much a junior partner if the Rio deal were to go through, with just two seats on a 17-seat board of directors. Chinalco would have to recuse itself from any Rio issues that posed a conflict of interest.

    Chinalco would also not be able to guarantee a supply of ore to other Chinese companies, although the companies envision new efforts to market iron and aluminum ore inside China.

    Shareholders at Rio’s annual meeting in April were unimpressed. They denounced the proposed deal as a fire sale of assets to a government buyer whose interests were starkly at odds with their own. As if to underscore the point, Rio’s share price has risen sharply since the Chinalco agreement was announced, suggesting that Chinalco shrewdly struck a deal at the nadir of the financial crisis. With every gain in Rio’s stock price, the Chinalco deal looks less attractive.

    Some institutional investors have suggested that they will oppose the bid, which requires shareholder approval, even if regulators approve it this year. And that seems in some question.

    Allies of Prime Minister Rudd argue that increased Chinese investment pumps money into Australia’s economy and opens new trade opportunities. But Mr. Rudd’s opponents say he does Beijing’s bidding. Among a drip of well-timed news leaks were claims that Chinese spies sought to hack into Mr. Rudd’s laptop during last year’s Olympic Games, and that his defense minister had failed to disclose gifts from a Chinese friend with ties to Beijing’s military establishment.

    Those allegations have been flying even as the Australian military has become more focused on China as a potential rival. A newly issued defense strategy proposes the biggest Australian military buildup since World War II, driven in part by a forecast of rising Chinese economic and military power, and a slow American fade in the Pacific.

    And recently, a wealthy Australian businessman began a television advertising blitz opposing the Rio-Chinalco deal, featuring Mr. Joyce, an opposition leader. The theme — that Australia is selling its mineral wealth to a “foreign government” that may not have Australians’ interest foremost — is unlikely to affect regulators’ deliberations. But it stokes a larger disquiet of which Mr. Rudd’s government is acutely aware.

    Mr. Rudd, a Mandarin-speaking ex-diplomat in Beijing, has not helped his cause: after an unannounced meeting with China’s propaganda minister in Canberra, Australia’s capital, he lobbied for a greater Chinese role in global finance at the Group of 20 economic meeting in London, leading critics to dub him China’s “roving ambassador.”

    Mr. Rudd shrugged off the gibes, but seemed stung: in London, his staff quietly asked that he not be seated next to Beijing’s ambassador to Australia during a television broadcast (the request was refused).

    Australia’s foreign investments board has given itself an additional 60 days to consider the Chinalco-Rio deal. But hopes that some of Australians’ unease might ebb during that breather took a hit in May, when another state owned Chinese company, China Nonferrous Metal Mining Group, proposed a $184 million purchase of 51.6 percent of another miner, Lynas Corporation.

    Lynas, which mines rare-earth minerals, also has been left short of cash by the global economic crisis. Critics were quick to note that China Nonferrous operates huge nickel and iron ore mines in Myanmar, widely denounced as one of the world’s most repressive nations, and has extensive gold-mining operations in North Korea.

    “So Lynas would become part of a group which makes hay in Burma. Can the government live with that?” The Australian, one of the nation’s major newspapers, asked. “What are the rules about ethical investments?”

    The executives at Chinalco, which also has operations in Myanmar, might be expected to rue the bad timing of China Nonferrous. On the other hand, it could be promoted as evidence that the government does not stage-manage corporate strategy.

    But at least one Chinalco executive no longer has those worries. The company’s chairman, Xiao Yaqing, the architect of both the 2008 and 2009 purchases of Rio assets, left the company in March after being promoted — to deputy head of the State Council, the team of cabinet ministers that sets policy for all China.

     

    Meraiah Foley contributed reporting.