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  • Assessment of CO2 Levels Hansen

    As we must have North Pole Summer Ice to have a “safe” climate system due to its ability to reflect large amounts of Sunlight, it means that “safe” levels of CO2 in the atmosphere lie somewhere between 300 and 325 ppm CO2. Unfortunately we are not sure exactly where that is, so the “safe” target / goal for CO2 concentrations is 300 ppm or below.

    “Safe” Climate = 300 ppm CO2 or below

    Now knowing this, you can see how ridiculous all the proposals to stabilise our Greenhouse gases at levels higher than today are.

    James Hansen suggests that we have only decades to return to a “safe” level of greenhouse gases or we will run the risk of passing points of “no return” for a number of critical global warming positive feedback mechanisms.

    James has proposed an interim target of 350 ppm CO2 and the closure of the coal industry, the latter of which he mentions in a recent letter to Kevin Rudd.

    “Prime Minister Rudd, we cannot avert our eyes from the basic fossil fuel facts, or the consequences for life on our planet of ignoring these fossil fuel facts. If we continue to build coal-fired power plants without carbon capture, we will lock in future climate disasters associated with passing climate tipping points. We must solve the coal problem now.”
    James Hansen letter to Kevin Rudd 27 March 2008

    Unfortunately people have already begun to misinterpret Hansen’s call for an interim target and are confusing this with a “safe” target. Please don’t do the same, as 350 ppm CO2 is as much of a death sentence for the planet as 400, 450, 550, 650 etc.

    1. http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/2008/TargetCO2_20080407.pdf
    2. http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/RoyalCollPhyscns_Jan08.pdf

  • What James Hansen really said to Barack and Michelle

     

    The Australian government and coal industry pretend to be in love with carbon capture and storage policies and the government hands out large wacks of money to the coal industry in pursuing this pretence. Professor Hansen has a novel idea. He suggests that the power generation industry actually use carbon capture and storage technology not just talk about it. The alternative is that the use of coal for electricity generation be phased out. It would be interesting to see the faces of coal executives being told that they actually have to deploy the “clean coal” technology about which they talk so unceasingly.

    The second suggestion is that a gradually increasing carbon tax be imposed. Cap and trade emissions trading schemes of the kind proposed by the Rudd Government (and operating for some time in the EU) are rejected as generating lobbyists, special interests and non-productive millionaires at public expense with little gain for the environment. Similar criticism has been recently made of the Rudd Government’s scheme by ZeroGen, a company actually trying to operate a carbon capture and storage scheme. Professor Hansen’s proposal involves returning the revenue raised by the carbon tax to the populace on a per capita basis. Thus, small consumers of carbon will benefit and large consumers shall pay for the privilege. Products which avoid use of carbon in their production will be more competitive in the market place.

    A rising carbon tax provides certainty for industry and deployment of the new low carbon technology is modulated by the rate at which the tax increases. A carbon tax proposal is a slap in the face for the economists who promote the complexity of emissions trading schemes in the name of using the market to promote an efficient allocation of resources.

    Professor Hansen’s third policy recommendation is the allocation of large resources to the research and development of fourth generation nuclear power (with international co-operation). The suggestion that nuclear power in any form is a safe means of avoiding the danger of carbon emissions will challenge many conservationists.

    Professor Hansen anticipates some objections to this proposal. He suggests that concerns that such technology will not be available until too late do not factor in focused Presidential involvement in the process of development of the new technology.

    Fourth generation reactors are promoted by Professor Hansen as not only much safer than previous nuclear technology. He also suggests that have the potential to solve the problems created by earlier nuclear technology including the problem of storing or disposing of nuclear waste. He states: “Existing nuclear reactors use less than 1% of the energy in uranium, leaving more than 99% in long-lived nuclear waste. 4th GNP can ‘burn’ that waste, leaving a small volume of waste with a half-life of decades rather than thousands of years.”

    Professor Hansen warns of tipping points that would take the disastrous trajectory towards an ice free earth out of human control. He indicates that an appropriate level of carbon dioxide equivalent in the atmosphere is less than 350 parts per million, down from the existing 385 parts per million.

    Finally, the Hansen letter is not complimentary of either the coal industry or the existing nuclear industry. The letter states that it is “noteworthy that, even with the presence of poorly designed nuclear power plants in the past, and in some cases demonstrably sloppy operations, the waste from coal-fired power plants has done far more damage, and even spread more radioactive material around the world than all nuclear power plants combined, including Chernobyl.”

    As usual, Professor Hansen’s courage to say what (after careful thought) he thinks outstrips any desire he may have to win friends. Hopefully, at some stage, similar courage might be displayed by Australia’s politicians and public servants.

  • Methane Hydrates

    It is perfectly feasible, therefore, that relatively small areas of land, like the west Siberian permafrost, or the deep sediments around the Gulf of Mexico, have enormous potential both for energy supply and heating the atmosphere to a level that would cause a catastrophic mass extinction of life.

    If we take the current controllable methane sources as being about 300 million tonnes (or 6400 million tonnes carbon dioxide equivalent) then the complete release of the western Siberian reservoir would be the equivalent of 233 years of current human methane emissions. It is believed, however, that the total reservoir of methane hydrates within the permafrost and under the sea could be anything between 750 and 3000 billion tonnes of methane, or up to 2000 years worth of human greenhouse gas emissions.

    Now, I’m not suggesting for a minute that all of this methane is going to pop into the atmosphere in one great Earthly gasp – there is no chance of this happening – but there is plenty of evidence to suggest that the great permafrosts of the north are no longer staying frozen during the summer months, and may be disappearing entirely. Although methane emissions have temporarily stabilised due to the drying out of wetlands, they will again begin to rise inexorably, and to these emissions will be added the methane that is coming from the hydrates that were previously safely encased in the arctic ice.

    No one can put a figure on the expected increase, but this is clearly a greenhouse effect feedback that we could do without. Even if the amount of methane was only doubled, we would see the total global warming potential increase by 20%. If, due to global warming, just the west Siberian permafrost reservoir were to be released, over a period of, say, 50 years, then within 12 years the amount of methane in the atmosphere would rapidly increase to 9000 million tonnes. The impact of this would be catastrophic.

    The current (2007) level of methane in the atmosphere is about 1.8 parts per million. This would increase by a factor of 20 to about 36 parts per million, resulting in the amount of human induced global warming increasing by a factor of 3.6. The simple outcome of this would be an increase in global temperatures of at least 3 degrees Celsius, with a dramatic increase in violent storms, desertification, flooding and, of course, the widespread inundation caused by sea level rise. The actual outcome would be far worse – the three degree increase would trigger a further set of feedbacks described by Mark Lynas thus:

    “The end of the world is nigh. A three-degree increase in global temperature would throw the carbon cycle into reverse. Instead of absorbing carbon dioxide, vegetation and soils start to release it. So much carbon pours into the atmosphere that it pumps up atmospheric concentrations by 250 parts per million by 2100, boosting global warming by another 1.5C. In other words carbon-cycle feedbacks could tip the planet into runaway global warming much earlier than anyone had expected.”

    And all this from just one piece of permafrost, in just one of the two great hydrate complexes on Earth. And we haven’t even considered carbon dioxide.

    Defusing The Timebomb

    Guess what? This doesn’t have to happen. It really doesn’t.

    There is no doubt that humanity, as a whole, has to dramatically cut the amount of carbon dioxide it produces; that is a task that has to remain the top priority for every sector of society – individuals, communities, businesses and governments. Without a dramatic reduction – some estimates put it as 80-90% – in carbon emissions in the next 30 or so years, the planet will be well on the way to the kind of tipping points so graphically described in the previous section.

    What struck me when I was researching this article, though, was how quickly the concentration of methane in the atmosphere can fall when its emissions are reduced, compared to the 50-200 years taken by carbon dioxide. Remember how the methane levels remained static at 9000 million tonnes in the west Siberia permafrost example? This stabilisation was because a methane molecule only remains in the atmosphere for an average of 12 years.

    According to the IPCC, if we can reduce our emissions of methane by just 50% – which seems perfectly reasonable given the incredibly wasteful lives we currently lead – then within 12 years, atmospheric methane levels will have fallen to 70% of their current level. This is equivalent to a 5.4% reduction in total radiative forcing (the measure of how much extra we are warming the atmosphere) – something that with carbon dioxide would take around a hundred years even if emissions were massively, and rapidly reduced.

    So there you have it. A greenhouse gas that could potentially make this planet uninhabitable in a very short time is also a gas that – because we are currently producing it at pointlessly high levels – could easily be reduced with a few simple, if significant, changes, and buy us valuable time in which to fix the problem we have created.

  • Stimulus went to 16.000 dead people

     

    The tax office admits it does not know where the payments to dead people ultimately finish up.

    “It is the role of the executor in administering the proceeds of the deceased estate to determine how the tax bonus payment will be distributed to beneficiaries,” the ATO said.

    More than $11 million was spent on “marketing” the stimulus package.

    About $8 billion has been paid to 8.7 million people so far.

    The government is also sending about $25 million in payments to people living overseas, with non-Australians who have worked in the country for at least six months receiving the funds.

    New Zealand and British economies will benefit the most, with 40 per cent of the overseas payments going to expatriates in those countries.

    A total of 7305 people will receive the payment to an overseas address and 18,000 will receive the payment via their bank account.

    The tax office was unable to determine how many prisoners had received the payment.

  • Cape York row threatens Rudd’s $60m UN bid

     

    Various estimates have put the cost of such a bid at between $40 and $60 million and the Government has already raised eyebrows by enlisting Governor-General Quentin Bryce to lobby African leaders for votes.

    Professor Wiltshire, who spent six years as Australia’s representative on the executive board of the United Nations’ Educational and Scientific Organisation (UNESCO), says the Government does not know how difficult the bid will be.

    And he says Mr Garrett’s recent decision to support the World Heritage plan has made the task almost impossible.

    Last Friday Mr Garrett and his state counterparts agreed to put the peninsula forward for listing, but the move has angered some Indigenous groups who argue it will stop them entering the real economy.

    The Government stands accused of putting environmental concerns before the very real social and economic problems among the Cape’s Indigenous population.

    “The World Heritage process now requires full consultation, particularly with Indigenous people,” Professor Wiltshire told the ABC.

    “If the Australian Government is seen not to have properly abided by the spirit and the letter of those arrangements, it means Australia could be seen as acting contrary to the spirit of UNESCO.

    “These are the sorts of things that affect a country’s reputation and if you are going for a seat on the UN Security Council you have to show that you are totally committed to United Nations principles.”

    Mr Garrett’s office was at pains to point out the heritage proposal was a first step in what could be up to a 10-year consultation process.

    “The development of the tentative list is the first stage in what will be a long and detailed consultation over the coming decade, helping ensure that we submit World Heritage nominations that have the best chance of success,” a spokesperson said.

    “The Rudd Government is committed to World Heritage and the safekeeping of the values of our region’s extraordinary World Heritage places and we have previously indicated our support for the listing of appropriate areas [of] Cape York in consultation with the Queensland Government, traditional owners and other stakeholders.”

    But Professor Wiltshire, the inaugural chairman of the World Heritage Wet Tropics Authority, says the talk is not being backed up by action.

    He says the UN is extremely unlikely to approve the listing of an area without proper consultation with the Indigenous population, and the Government needs to produce more than just symbolic gestures.

    “To get a seat it’s not enough to go around lobbying the world and doing deals and all these sorts of things, you’ve got to show that total commitment to UN principles,” he said.

    “There is a danger that this (World Heritage proposal) could be interpreted that Australia is not abiding by its true role as a member of the UN.”

    Much is at stake.

    The quality of life of thousands of Australia’s most vulnerable people relies on being able to properly engage in the economy of Cape York.

    The health of a potentially fragile ecosystem relies on sensible and sustainable management.

    But a UN Security Council seat and the prestige of a World Heritage listing could push those concerns to the side.

    Mr Garrett’s office says the Government’s aim is to balance the competing desires of development and conservation.

    “World Heritage listing can be a huge opportunity for economic development on the Cape”, a statement from Mr Garrett’s office said.

    “Australia’s 17 World Heritage properties generate $12 billion annually and support over 120,000 jobs across the country.”

    Professor Wiltshire sees the danger in stumbling blindly into an environmental, political and economic quagmire.

    “If they haven’t properly consulted with the Indigenous people and taken account of their values and wishes and needs there’d be no prospect and the nomination would be stalled,” he said.

    “The World Heritage proposal is doomed if Australia still tries to gun it through. Australia will have a very bad reputation on the international stage.

    “I don’t think Australia has properly thought through what’s involved in this bid.”

    The ABC sent a series of detailed questions to the Prime Minister’s office but a spokesperson would only say that the Government was committed to the Security Council bid.

  • In Hot Pursuit of Fusion (or Folly )

     

    The project’s director, Ed Moses, said that getting to the cusp of ignition (defined as the successful achievement of fusion) had taken some 7,000 workers and 3,000 contractors a dozen years, their labors creating a precision colossus of millions of parts and 60,000 points of control, 30 times as many as on the space shuttle.

    “It’s the cathedral story,” Dr. Moses said during a tour. “We put together the best physicists, the best engineers, the best of industry and academia. It’s not often you get that opportunity and pull it off.”

    In February, NIF fired its 192 beams into its target chamber for the first time, and it now has the world’s most powerful laser, as well as the largest optical instrument ever built. But raising its energies still further to the point of ignition could take a year or more of experimentation and might, officials concede, prove daunting and perhaps impossible.

    For that reason, skeptics dismiss NIF as a colossal delusion that is squandering precious resources at a time of economic hardship. Just operating it, officials grant, will cost $140 million a year. Some doubters ridicule it as the National Almost Ignition Facility, or NAIF.

    Even friends of the effort are cautious. “They’ve made progress,” said Roy Schwitters, a University of Texas physicist who leads a federal panel that recently assessed NIF’s prospects. “Ignition may eventually be possible. But there’s still much to learn.”

    Dr. Moses, while offering no guarantees, argued that any great endeavor involved risks and that the gamble was worth it because of the potential rewards.

    He said that NIF, if successful, would help keep the nation’s nuclear arms reliable without underground testing, would reveal the hidden life of stars and would prepare the way for radically new kinds of power plants.

    “If fusion energy works,” he said, “you’ll have, for all intents and purposes, a limitless supply of carbon-free energy that’s not geopolitically sensitive. What more would you want? It’s a game changer.”

    NIF is to fire its lasers for 30 years.

    Like the dedication of a cathedral, the event here on Friday at the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory is to be a celebration of hope. Officials say some 3,500 people will attend. The big names include Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger, Energy Secretary Steven Chu (whose agency finances NIF) and Charles Townes, a Nobel Laureate and laser pioneer.

    In preparation, workmen here last Thursday washed windows and planted flowers on the lush campus, the day auspiciously sunny.

    Dr. Moses, who runs science programs for high school students in his spare time, broke from his own preparations to show a visitor the NIF complex.

    In its lobby, he held up a device smaller than a postage stamp. This is where it all starts, he said. From this kind of tiny laser, beams emerge that grow large and bright during their long journey through NIF’s maze of mirrors, lenses and amplifiers.

    The word laser is an acronym for light amplification by stimulated emission of radiation. And each particle of light, or photon, is amplified, Dr. Moses said, to “around 10 to the 25th” photons. Or, “10 million, million, million, million.”

    A nearby stand held a thick slab of pink glass about the size of a traffic sign — an example of an amplifier. NIF has 3,200 in all. Dr. Moses said the big step occurred when giant flash tubes — like ones in cameras but six feet long and 7,680 in number — flashed in unison to excite the pink glass. Laser photons then zip through, stimulating cascades of offspring, making the beam much stronger, such amplification happening over and over.

    Photons moving in step with one another is what makes laser light so bright and concentrated and, in some instances, so potent.

    Dr. Moses picked up a mock capsule of hydrogen fuel. It was all of two millimeters wide, or less than a tenth of an inch.

    “It heats up,” he said. “It blows in at a million miles an hour, moving that way for about five-billionths of a second. It gets to about the diameter of your hair. When it gets that small, that fast, you hit temperatures where it can start fusing — around 100 million degrees centigrade, or 180 million degrees Fahrenheit.”

    Hair nets, hard hats and safety goggles were donned before entering NIF proper. Repeated steps on sticky pads pulled dirt from shoes. Dust is NIF’s bane, Dr. Moses said. It can ruin optics and experiments. He said the 33-foot-wide target chamber was evacuated to a near-vacuum, much the same as outer space — a void where light can zip along with almost no impediments.

    Dr. Moses said the team fired the laser only at night and did maintenance and equipment upgrades during the day. “This is a 24/7 facility,” he said.

    The previous night, he said, the laser had been fired in an effort to improve coordination and timing. The 192 rays have to strike the target as close to simultaneously as possible.

    The individual beams, he said, have to hit “within a few trillionths of a second” of one another if the fuel is to burn, and be pointed at the target with a precision “within half the diameter of your hair.”

    The control room, modeled on NASA’s mission control in Houston, was buzzing with activity, even though some consoles sat empty. Phones rang. Walkie-talkies crackled. The countdown to firing the lasers, Dr. Moses said, took three and half hours, with the process “pretty much in the hands of computers.”

    The operations plan for NIF, he added, is to conduct 700 to 1,000 laser firings per year, with about 200 of the experiments focused on ignition. There is no danger of a runaway blast, he said. Fusion works by heat and pressure, not chain reactions. Moreover, the fuel is minuscule and the laser flash extraordinarily short. During a year of operations, Dr. Moses said, “the facility is on for only three-thousandths of a second,” yet will generate a growing cascade of data and insights.

    Next on the tour, after more sticky pads, was the holy of holies, the room surrounding the target chamber. It looked like an engine room out of a science-fiction starship. The beam lines — now welters of silvery metal filled with giant crystals that shifted the concentrated light to higher frequencies — converged on the chamber’s blue wall. Its surface was dotted with silvery portholes where complex sensors could be placed to evaluate the tiny blasts.

    “When it’s running,” Dr. Moses said, “there’s a lot of stuff at the chamber’s center.”

    Despite the giant banner outside and its confident prediction, it is an open question whether NIF’s sensors will ever detect the rays of a tiny star, independent scientists say.

    “I personally think it’s going to be a close call,” said William Happer, a physicist at Princeton University who directed federal energy research for the first President George Bush. “It’s a very complicated system, and you’re dependent on many things working right.”

    Dr. Happer said a big issue for NIF was achieving needed symmetries at minute scales. “There’s plenty of room,” he added, “for nasty surprises.”

    Doubters say past troubles may be a prologue. When proposed in 1994, the giant machine was to cost $1.2 billion and be finished by 2002. But costs rose and the completion date kept getting pushed back, so much so that Congress threatened to pull the plug. Today, critics see the delays and the $3.5 billion price tag as signs of overreaching.

    Dr. Moses, who was put in charge of NIF a decade ago in an effort to right the struggling project, said that a decade from now, as NIF opened new frontiers, no one would remember the missteps. He compared the project to feats like going to the Moon, building the atom bomb and inventing the airplane.

    “Stumbles are not unusual when you take on big-risk projects,” he said.

    Dr. Moses added that the stumble rule applied to cathedrals as well.

    Having grown up in Eastchester, close to New York City, he noted that the Cathedral Church of Saint John the Divine, on the Upper West Side of Manhattan, was still under construction after more than a century. Is it worthwhile, despite the delays?

    “Of course it is,” he said. Taking on big projects that challenge the imagination “is who we are as a species.”