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The Generator news service publishes articles on sustainable development, agriculture and energy as well as observations on current affairs. The news service is used on the weekly radio show, The Generator, as well as by a number of monthly and quarterly magazines. A podcast of the Generator news is also available.
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  • The climate crunch heralds the end of the end of history

     

    I support the idea of a new deal and hope it produces the desired double benefit – and if countries manage to reduce their dependence upon imported oil, it would be a triple benefit. Yet the effect that Freud spoke of should galvanise us to thought and action of a much wider scope.

    We are on the brink of a major revolution – the demise of the fossil-fuel economy. Now is the time to think through the implications. On the nitty-gritty side, one major concern has to be jobs. A climate change new deal will create new jobs, its proponents argue. I’m not so sure, if by this they mean net jobs – that is to say, larger numbers than existed before. As more energy is produced from low-carbon sources, and energy efficiency increases, some workers in the fossil fuel industries, like coal mining, will be put out of work. Most forms of technological innovation reduce the need for labour power.

    Jobs will be created not so much through renewable technologies themselves, but through the lifestyle changes that coping with climate change and energy security will bring about. The emerging economy will be even more radically post-industrial than the one we have now. And it will be up to entrepreneurs to spot the economic opportunities that will come about as it expands – much in the same way as ways were found to revitalise dockland areas when the shipping industry evaporated.

    Pondering what form recovery from recession should take must cause us to think seriously about the nature of economic growth itself, at least in the rich countries. It has been known for a long while that, above a certain level of prosperity, growth does not necessarily lead to greater personal and social welfare. Now is the time to introduce more rounded measures of welfare alongside GDP and give them real political resonance. Now is the time for a sustained and positive critique of consumerism which can be made to count politically. Now is the time to work out how to ensure that recovery does not mean a reversion to the loads-of-money society.

    The period of Thatcherite deregulation is over. The state is back. Both economic institutions and climate change and energy policy will need active planning, though the mistakes made by previous generations of planners have to be avoided. Take renewables. Technological breakthroughs are required if fossil fuels are to become history, yet how should governments decide which ones to back? How can they cope with the fact that the most radical technological innovations – such as the internet – are often not foreseen by anybody?

    We have to find a new role for market-based mechanisms as well. Complex financial instruments are out of fashion, blamed for the economic collapse. Yet we will have need of them again because, properly regulated, they are often the key to long-term investment, rather than a force against it.

    Consider the issue of insurance against extreme weather events, such as hurricanes in the Caribbean. Such episodes will become more frequent and intense as climate change progresses. Providing insurance against damage incurred will be a key way of adapting to them – especially for poorer people. The private insurance industry will have to supply most of the capital, since given its many other obligations the state can be only the insurer of last resort.

    And then, there’s the granddaddy of the whole thing, globalisation, which has proceeded apace without adequate international controls. Effective regulation of world financial markets is essential for the future. Perhaps it could help pave the way for the collaboration essential to coping with climate change.

    A vast amount of re-assessment is necessary before political leaders make their way to the Danish capital in December to agree a treaty to replace the Kyoto protocol. The financial crisis and its aftermath have given a jolt to established ways of thinking that could and should prove massively important. We’re at the end of the end of history.

    • Anthony Giddens’s new book, The Politics of Climate Change, is published on 20 March

     

  • Drop in CO2 in US and Power use in China-for now

    Not surprisingly, given the depth of the recession,  emissions of carbon dioxide from fuel burning in the United States declined 2.8 percent last year, the biggest annual drop since the early 1980’s, according to a preliminary estimate released by the Energy Department on Wednesday.

    The drop parallels a sharp decline in the amount of electricity being generated in China, tracked by researchers at  Stanford University led by Richard Morse. I wrote about  their initial findings in January, and the decline is holding in their latest results (pdf of data/graph). For years electricity generation there grew at a rapid clip, reflected in a  building boom for power plants. Presumably declines in coal burning and emissions will now follow (there is a lag between power data and emissions data). Many experts on China caution that most sources of data there should come with fat error bars, given past instances in which official estimates of activities ranging from coal extraction to fish catches proved to be way off.

    Other specialists focusing on energy and the economy warn that the drops are almost surely temporary and should not be a source of comfort for countries grappling with ways to curb emissions while fostering prosperity.

    There may already be signs of an uptick in China’s energy thirst. Platts is reporting today that China consumed 31.47 million metric tons of oil in April, up 4 percent from the same month last year. In a news release, Dave Ernsberger, senior editorial director for Asia at Platts, said this could mean that “the first seedlings of a broad stabilization and recovery in oil demand are starting to poke through around the world.”

  • China ready for post-Kyoto deal on climate change

     

    “They see the impact of climate change on China and they know the world is moving towards a low-carbon economy and see the business opportunities that will come with that.”

    The shift in the Chinese position significantly improves the chances of an agreement being reached when world leaders meet in Copenhagen in December to negotiate a deal that scientists say is critical if dangerous warming is to be avoided.

    While Britain and the European Union – which have a large historical responsibility for greenhouse gas emissions – are pushing for ambitious reduction targets at home, no global climate deal will be possible in Copenhagen without the agreement of China and the US, which together are responsible for more than 40% of the world’s annual carbon emissions.

    China’s official negotiating position is unchanged, but the government is understood to be preparing a set of targets up to and beyond 2020 to lower the country’s “carbon intensity”. This translates to cutting the emissions needed to produce each unit of economic growth.

    Miliband said Barack Obama’s pledge to reduce US emissions to 1990 levels by 2020 has unblocked the international negotiating process.

    “China used to think the developed world is not serious. That’s what they were saying [at UN talks] in December,” he said. “But now they know the US is on the pitch and ready to engage with them. It has made a real difference to what China is saying.”

    His comments echoed the message from Chinese officials. Su Wei, a senior negotiator, told the Guardian last month that the US had made a “substantive change” under the Obama administration.

    “The message we have got is that the current US administration takes climate change seriously, that it recognises its historical responsibility and that it has the capacity to help developing countries address climate change,” Su said.

    But while the tone may have changed, there is still a long way to go before agreement can be reached on specifics.

    China wants developed nations to commit to more ambitious reduction targets, to share low-carbon technology and to set up a UN fund that would buy related intellectual property rights for use across the world. Beijing’s position is complicated by the fact that it already owns a large share of the patents for wind and solar energy in developed nations.

    Europe and the US accept the Chinese economy should be allowed to grow further, improving the living standards of its millions of poor, before it makes overall emissions reductions. Instead, the western nations are pushing for strong measures to improve efficiency and establish caps for certain industries. One possibility being considered by Chinese officials is to set a carbon intensity goal up to 2040 that would include energy efficiency, renewable energy, transport and afforestation.

    “It would be very welcome for China to set a commitment for carbon intensity,” said Miliband. “It would send a signal around the world.”

    He was visiting Minqin county, a remote area in north-western China threatened by desertification and drought. Along with the melting of the Himalayan glaciers, the spread of deserts and the shortage of water have highlighted the destructive impact of unsustainable development and climate change.

    “We’re very concerned about climate change,” said Xu Wenshan, the deputy mayor of Wuwei, at a welcome banquet. “Living in such an ecologically fragile area, we will feel the impact directly if there is a further rise in the temperature.”

    Jim Watson, of the UK’s Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, said it had become the mainstream view in China that global warming was caused by human activity, which was not the view five years ago.

    “We see significant policy shifts and encouraging developments in technology, for example phenomenal development of wind power and plug-in cars. That could be a sign of things to come,” he said. “My impression is that although the negotiators haven’t moved ground officially, there are a hell of a lot of new ideas. They are very interested in low-carbon economy.”

    Last month, the Tyndale centre published research showing that it was possible for China to begin reducing its total emissions from 2020.

    Government officials say that is unrealistic and China has so far resisted announcing a target for when emissions might peak. But the authorities tend towards the later end of the various academic forecasts of between 2020 and 2040.

    Watson noted that if emissions are measured on a historical per-capita basis, China is 78th in the world rather than first.

  • Spate of batteries announced

    The drive for commercial releases of electric cars has launched a spate of announcements about battery technology. The weight of existing batteries, the toxic chemicals employed in their manufacture and the limitations on the amount of power they can store makes the battery a limiting factor in the widespread adoption of electric vehicles. This week alone, announcements have been made about an air fuelled battery, sulphur lithium batteries and a ‘spin’ battery that uses the magnetic fields in atoms. Major investments in recharging stations have been made in Israel and Australia in anticipation of the release of electric cars and Warren Buffet has invested in a Chinese company that plans the widespread release of an electric car in the US next February.

    Detailed stories

  • First cut of US climate bill emerges

    An energy bill for the United States government has cleared its first committee on its way to discussion by the US Congress. The bill falls short of President Obama’s targets, nominating an emissions reduction target of 17% and generation of 15% of energy from renewable sources by 2020. The 2050 target in the bill is set at 85% below 2005 levels. President Obama also called for the auctioning of emissions permits to fund renewable energy programs and compensate consumers for higher energy prices. Negotiations have resulted in 60% of those targets being given to major polluters. The bill favours existing renewable energy sources, such as wind. The bill will be reviewed by a number of committees before it is presented to Congress.

  • Wales legislates for zero waste

    The small British country, Wales, has passed laws which commit future government’s to a zero waste future and one hundred percent of energy to be obtained from renewable sources. The package is the most far reaching legislation in Europe and is pegged for a twenty year time frame. Recycling is mandated for 70 per cent of all waste, free plastic bags will be banned and major investments made in generating electricity from agricultural waste, tide and waves. Once a major coal producer, Wales plans to be independent of fossil fuels by 2030.

    See related article from the Guardian