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  • Price of doing nothing costs the earth

     

    What has changed? Unlike other models, MIT’s Integrated Global Systems Model makes detailed assessments not just of climate science but also of the likely changes in human activity. The difference between the two outcomes arises from several factors, such as new economic data showing that our greenhouse gas emissions are unlikely – if there are no constraints – to be as low as previously thought, and new oceanic temperature data, showing that the deep oceans are not removing heat from the atmosphere as quickly as scientists expected.

    Even the new figure could be an under-estimate, the team suggests, because it doesn’t account for the full range of positive feedbacks, such as melting permafrost releasing methane and carbon dioxide.

    Climate change deniers hate these models. Why, they say, should we base current policy on scenarios and computer programmes rather than observable facts? But that’s the trouble with the future: you can’t observe it. If you reject the world’s most sophisticated models as a means of forecasting likely climate trends, you must suggest an alternative. What do they propose? Gut feelings? Seaweed? Chicken entrails?

    Computer models are only as good as the assumptions they contain, which is why those assumptions are constantly tested and updated. No one claims to have a definitive answer; instead the models test hundreds of different likely scenarios, then find the median result. There is no attempt to make the future look either rosier or grimmer than it is.

    What they give us is the best available estimate of the consequences of doing as Mr Klaus and others suggest, and letting events take their course. The MIT model suggests that even the most profligate climate change programme the world’s governments could devise would do nowhere near as much economic and humanitarian damage as our failure to act. Nothing is certain: it’s all a matter of probability. But which risk do you want to take?

    monbiot.com

  • Zero-carbon eco home is light years ahead

     

    The world’s first Active House stands at the crest of an estate. Its south-facing roof is covered in solar panels and solar cells, which between them harness more than enough power to keep the occupants warm and the appliances running. In around 30 years’ time, if designers have got their sums right, the excess electricity flowing from the house into Denmark’s grid will have cancelled out the energy costs of building it, leaving a non-existent footprint on the earth’s resources.

    It was conceived as a more comfortable and user-friendly response to the Passive House, which has set the standard for sustainable living in the last decade. These homes, which are popular in Scandinavia, Germany and Austria, rely on incredibly effective insulation, plus a heat exchanger that warms fresh air on the way in during winter. A true Passive House has no conventional heating system because, in theory, it doesn’t need one. In practice, owners tend to install back-up systems, because it’s no fun being cold, no matter how virtuous you feel.

    Rikke Lildholdt, project manager for the Active House, shows me round. “Many people have the idea that if it’s ecological, it must be difficult; you have to grow your own vegetables or whatever,” she says. “This is about living a comfortable life in a house that produces more energy than it uses.”

    Unlike Passive Houses, which are typically only open to the south, there are huge windows on all sides. The cynic in me notes that Velfac, best known in Britain for its skylight brand, Velux, had good reason to commission a design that uses so much glass – equivalent to 40% of the floor surface area and roughly double the average window space. Even on this grim, drizzly day, the rooms are remarkably bright. The triple-glazing cannot match well-insulated walls for heat efficiency, but there’s less need to turn the lights on.

    The solar panels provide hot water for underfloor radiators, but when the sun doesn’t shine, an electric pump kicks in. For eight months a year, the solar cells produce excess energy to sell to the grid. In the winter months, the house buys back electricity – from renewable sources, of course. When a mass-market battery car finally reaches the market, there will be a charger for it in the garage and energy to spare.

    The interior climate is controlled by a computer, linked to a thermostat, which opens and closes windows according to the temperature, season and time of day. Chief engineer Amdi Worm assures me that there is a manual override. “If the occupants open a window, in an hour or so the window will automatically close a little,” he says.

    “If they really insist, they can choose to do it again, but I’m sure that the house will tell them that the way they are handling it is not energy efficient.”

    Sverre Simonsen, his wife, Sophie, and their two children, aged eight and six, will be the first family to live in this nanny home. “We have never been especially conscious about environmental issues,” says Simonsen, “but my wife often asks, ‘Why don’t they invent something new?’ And this is definitely something new.” They will move in for a year on 1 July and have promised to keep a diary of their experiences.

    The house has two flat-screen televisions and a washing machine, but no tumble dryer, in order to meet an energy consumption target of 4,000 KWh per year – a little less than the Danish average. Giving that up is “one of the few sacrifices we have to make, because with kids there’s a lot of washing,” says Simonsen. The dryer in their current home broke down a month ago, so they’re getting used to hanging clothes on a line.

    Lildholdt is coy about how expensive the house was to build, describing it as “the Rolls-Royce version” and insisting that as a commercial product, it would cost no more than a regular three-bedroom detached.

    When pressed, she tells me the bill came to around £500,000.

    “Hopefully we’ll set a standard for what houses will look like in the future. But this is an experiment,” she says. “We’re not building houses, we’re building an idea.” Nine more Active Houses are under construction around Europe. If it can work under the leaden skies of Aarhus, it can work in Britain.

     

  • Wong must take firm reduction figures to world climate conference

    Wong must take firm reduction figures to world climate conference

    Lenore Taylor, National correspondent | May 21, 2009

    Article from:  The Australian

    THE success of international climate change negotiations in Copenhagen in December hinges on developed nations such as Australia turning up with legislated emission reduction targets.

    Danish Climate Minister Connie Hedegaard said this as the Rudd Government prepared for crucial Senate negotiations over its emissions trading plans.

    “It is very important that Australia gets its position ready, that is legislated, so the Australian government can argue this is actually what Australia will deliver at the negotiating table in Copenhagen,” said Ms Hedegaard, a minister in the Danish Liberal-conservative government.

    As environment minister of the nation hosting the crucial United Nations conference to finalise an international emission reduction agreement to take over from the Kyoto Protocol, Ms Hedegaard has been touring the world trying to build momentum for a successful agreement.

    “Right now there is such a game going on, where everybody tends to be waiting for everybody else to make the next move, and we have to break that by some countries coming forward and saying OK we can deliver this,” Ms Hedegaard said.

    Ms Hedegaard has met Climate Minister Senator Penny Wong and is scheduled to meet Coalition emissions trading spokesman Andrew Robb and climate spokesman Greg Hunt, whose party is likely to determine the fate of the Government’s revised emissions trading plan in the Senate next month.

    But her comments were focused on the need for Australia to have a clear and agreed position on emission reduction targets of at least the 25 per cent of 2000 levels by 2020 — as the Government is now proposing — rather than the exact mechanism Australia proposed to use to get there. “What matters is Australia is ready to deliver (on the target). What that takes domestically is up to Australia,” she said.

  • Expenses ‘grey area’ need reform: Greens

    Expenses ‘grey areas’ need reform: Greens

    By Online parliamentary correspondent Emma Rodgers

    Posted 22 minutes ago

    MPs should be forced to hand back any of their electoral allowance they do not spend instead of absorbing it into their salary, Greens leader Bob Brown says.

    Despite a freeze on MPs’ salaries for at least 15 months, the Remuneration Tribunal recently increased their electoral allowances by $90 a week to $32,000.

    The allowance is used by MPs to cover electoral expenses but any money they do not spend can be kept as taxable income.

    But MPs are not required to keep a record of how the money is spent.

    Senator Brown is pushing for several reforms to the rules surrounding the use of the allowance, including having a regulator who would determine what spending is allowable and an auditor to enforce the rules.

    He also wants any unspent money to be given back to Treasury.

    He says the rules are unclear as to what is legitimate spending and there is no way to check what MPs are using the money for.

    “I think in MPs’ defence they need a regulator who can make very clear decisions when asked as to whether or not spending is legitimate,” he told AM.

    “There’s a lot of other items, refurbishing offices or decorating offices for example, where it’s a complete grey area, and you don’t know whether or not it’s legitimate electorate expenditure.”

    Senator Brown’s call comes in the wake of Britain’s expenses scandal, which revealed the extravagant spending of some MPs on pet food, gardeners and cleaning.

    Employment Participation Minister Brendan O’Connor says he spends all of his allowance.

    He maintains that MPs are held accountable for their spending through requirements to the Australian Tax Office.

    “What each MP and senator must do is acquit themselves of that expenditure properly and I’m sure MPs and senators do just that,” he told Sky News.

    Liberal backbencher Bronwyn Bishop has also defended the system which she says is better than the US or British system.

    “Quite frankly I think most members of Parliament, me included, earn the money that we are paid,” she told Sky News.

    “If you’re not earning the money you shouldn’t be there I guess.”

  • California plans no exit from Hydrogen highway

     

    “California is pouring good money after bad down the hydrogen rat hole, at a time when we can least afford it. They’re spending taxpayer dollars for a technology that doesn’t work, and I object,” said Paul Scott, vice president of Plug In America, an electric vehicle advocacy group. He was far happier with Chu’s decision to cut off funding for hydrogen fuel research in next year’s federal budget. “Listen closely … that sound you hear is the banging of the final nail in the fuel cell coffin. Sweet music to our ears,” he wrote in an e-mail.

    Jay Friedland, also of Plug In America, said studies had shown it takes four times as much funding to build and fuel a hydrogen vehicle as an EV car. Chu appeared to echo that sentiment, joining fellow scientists, engineers and policymakers in questioning the commercial viability of creating clean hydrogen fuel on a broad scale any time soon.

    But boosters retort that Chu erred, and they will look to Congress to rectify that error.

    California air board staff and hydrogen advocates said the latest state spending was a critical long-term investment. Hydrogen is the least polluting vehicle fuel on earth, they say, and continued funding now will pay off by 2050 in sharply reduced greenhouse gases and other air pollution, as well as new jobs.  Most important, it is vital to keep funding a mixture of possible fuel options until it becomes clear which is truly commercially viable.

    They insist other studies have shown that hydrogen has as good a chance as battery powered cars.

    “Steve is making a major mistake on several fronts,” said Schwarzenegger’s longtime environment adviser Terry Tamminen in an email. “First, many automakers that are heavily invested in hydrogen … were not consulted on this decision, showing that our new Secretary could use some help with stakeholder outreach and diplomacy at the very least.”

    As for California’s spending, he wrote, “I think taxpayer dollars earmarked for developing new/clean technologies are very appropriate… in bad times, we see even more clearly the cost of failure to invest in this important infrastructure. GM is dying at great cost to taxpayers; hundreds of billions of subsidies…to oil companies are essentially wasted. By contrast, when we supported development of high tech, we ended up with Silicon Valley and the trillions of dollars that has delivered to CA and the US in terms of jobs and taxes. You be the judge!”

    California air board chair Mary Nichols, who has repeatedly sought to defuse competition between competing alternative fuel advocates, wrote to Chu on April 1 and copied the letter to Obama environmental adviser Carol Browner, EPA administrator Lisa Jackson and White House Council on Environmental Quality chair Nancy Sutley, begging for continued hydrogen fuel cell funding as part of broad-range backing.

    “Today it is not possible to know which technologies will be the market winners, but given that our global climate and future mobility are at stake, we must pursue all promising options. Fuel cell vehicles, with their potential to provide the range, high efficiency, rapid refueling, and performance consumers expect while achieving zero tailpipe emissions and dramatically reduced greenhouse gas emissions, are one of these options,” she wrote.

    Nichols noted hydrogen fuel cells were also “unique in their ability” to potentially power other current high polluters such as ships, locomotives and scooters. In a statement, she praised the state’s latest expenditures.

    “Hydrogen is one of the many fuels in California’s future. But we need to cultivate the industry’s early growth. This grant money will nurture a burgeoning technology that will provide jobs, invigorate our economy, and provide the state with clean power.”

    Anthony Eggert, Nichols’ science and technology adviser, said late Tuesday that state officials were “puzzled’ by Chu’s decision, and that it would “obviously be a blow” to continued hydrogen technology development. He said the agency and a consortium of state fuel cell backers would push Congress to restore hydrogen funding in the energy department’s final budget.

    Asked for comment about Californians’ pleas and criticisms, Chu’s deputy press secretary, Tiffany Edwards, said in an email, “The President’s 2010 Budget seeks to usher in a new era of responsibility—an era in which we not only do what we must to save and create new jobs and lift our economy out of recession, but in which we also lay a new foundation for long-term growth and prosperity. The President and Secretary Chu are focused on investing in renewable sources of energy so that we can reduce our dependence on foreign oil and become the world leader in the new clean energy economy.  Change is never easy, but we must use our resources wisely in the short term if we are to transform the way we use and produce energy in the long term.”

    As for California’s expenditures during tough times, Gerhard Achtelik, manager of the air board’s Zero Emissions Vehicle program, noted that it took a century and lots of money to build gas stations, as well. Explaining the latest round of California funding, he said in many cases it was matching money.

    Shell was the highest bidder in an open process, he said, and will spend more of its own money than any other applicant. Shell’s project could also create hydrogen onsite, using a promising natural gas steam reformation system.

    Achtelik said it was crucial to continue to fund a broad range of alternative fuel technologies, because while electric plug-ins and hybrid vehicles might be market-ready sooner, hydrogen-fueled vehicles would emit no pollutants, a giant step in helping the state meet its mandate to slash greenhouse gases and clear Los Angeles and the Central Valley’s still polluted air in coming decades. Critics of EVs note that plug in vehicles, by contrast, have a long way to go as well, because much electric power still comes from highly polluting coal plants.

    Electric vehicle advocates dispute that, saying their cars can be plugged in at night in homeowners’ garages, to take advantage of burgeoning solar, wind and other renewable sources during off hours.

    Part of the debate, like an old-fashioned schoolyard fight, reflects intensely personal differences about whose car is better. That schism has erupted repeatedly over the years between hydrogen and EV fans, with each side arguing their fuel is the one that will win out. Of late, EVs have been winning key laps. In addition to Chu’s decision, President Obama toured an EV test site in Southern California this spring, and has pledged to get a million plug-in cars on the road. But others say the wheels are not off hydrogen yet.

    Tamminen, who drives a hydrogen-fueled Honda Clarity, said in an email that contrary to press reports, hydrogen fueled cars are “real and here right now … I refuel at the Shell station on Santa Monica Blvd…and have driven the car all over CA with no problem.”

    Noting that there are now 30 hydrogen stations in the state, he boasted, “I drive 250 miles and spend 5 minutes to refuel, while my friends with Teslas drive 120 miles and spend 4 hours recharging.”

    He added that EVs “suffer from lugging around half a ton of batteries,” making the vehicles less efficient, and concluded, “May the best car win!”

    But Scott, who drives one of the original Toyota electric vehicles featured in “Who Killed The Electric Car?” documentary, countered that he plugs his car into his solar powered Santa Monica home each night, and goes an effortless 150 miles or more on a single charge.

    He said compressed hydrogen fuel, by contrast, is often trucked in by diesel spewing trucks to the few stations that do exist wiping out any clean air gains. He said that new, lighter batteries are being tested for EV cars, and that tens of thousands of electric vehicles could quickly be on the street. In fact, he noted, the filmmakers who shot the original documentary about how California’s air board decimated the original EV fleets are hard at work on a sequel: “The Revenge of the Electric

  • Changing Climate: Carbon tax Gaining Momentum over Cap-and-trade?

     

    And herein lies the big “hairy” problem for proponents of cap-and-trade. If people can’t easily understand or trust something, they aren’t likely to buy into it. That’s been one of my chief complaints against carbon cap-and-trade.  It’s simply too complicated for most people, even many experts, to understand.

    That’s why I prefer a carbon tax — it’s transparent and simple.  And I’m hardly alone. Democrat Al Gore, who put climate change on the social and political map with his book and movie “An Inconvenient Truth,” was an early proponent for a carbon tax. “Democrat turned Republican turned independent” New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg has called for a tax instead of cap-and-trade. Others on both sides of the political spectrum and in between who have voiced support for a carbon tax include New York Times columnist Thomas Friedman; South Carolina Republican Congressman Bob Inglis; NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies director James Hansen; Exxon Mobil CEO Rex Tillerson; and economist  Jeffrey Sachs.

    I have good friends who are ardent supporters of cap-and-trade — and they probably won’t like this column. But here’s the rub — in private many of them will admit that in an ideal world a carbon tax would be an easier, efficient and more streamlined mechanism. They just don’t believe it’s politically viable, whereas they think cap and trade is. So they support cap and trade not because it’s better but because they view it as possible.

    I was speaking recently with Gregg Small, executive director of non-profit Climate Solutions (our partner in the Carbon Free Prosperity report). He stressed something to me in our conversation that I found very interesting. “Even though we prefer cap and trade, the issue that we’re talking about most is the need for an enforceable cap on emissions. We’re open to many different mechanisms for making the cap work as long as it is fair, well-designed, and achieves the desired emission reductions.”

    He’s absolutely right on that point. Setting caps is a great way to guarantee that governments and industries meet critical greenhouse gas reduction goals. Part of the issue of the carbon tax vs. cap-and-trade debate is that it obscures a critical point. You can have a tax and a cap — they’re not mutually exclusive. Connecticut Rep. John B. Larson, chair of the House Democratic Caucus, has introduced a bill that could provide both. The bill, as currently written, would require an annual carbon reduction target (based on meeting an 80 percent reduction from 2005 carbon emission levels by 2050) and a price on carbon to help achieve the reduction targets. The bill proposes starting with a price on carbon of $15/ton, and increases annually at varying rates, depending on if emission reduction targets are met or not.

    At the end of the day, I think we need three things in any effective carbon policy: 1) A stable and increasing price on carbon that will account for fossil fuel-based externalities in a transparent and simple way; 2) a cap on emissions that meets critical reduction targets;  and 3) a distribution of the tax revenues that reduces other taxes (keeping the plan near revenue-neutral) and distributes a small portion of the revenues (I’d recommend around $15 billion a year for a decade) to clean-tech development and deployment. By making sure a portion of these dollars is spent on technology build out, we can help keep America at the forefront of the emerging global clean-tech economy.

    As more and more people speak out in favor of a carbon tax, and momentum builds, I think that a carbon tax could be just as much a political reality as cap-and-trade.  The Obama team is clearly serious about advancing clean energy, low-carbon transportation, conservation/efficiency, green buildings, and the smart grid. But as we move forward — I hope the Administration, House, and Senate take another look at the policy toolkit — and don’t dismiss or abandon the concept of a carbon tax. A price on carbon is the signal that will ultimately guarantee a true shift in our economy away from polluting and extractive industries to low carbon, renewable ones. Let’s be sure to design a carbon pricing system that’s fair; that will result in real and measurable greenhouse gas emission reductions; that can be explained readily and easily; and that is transparent to all stakeholders. The way to do that, I believe, is a carbon tax with a set emissions cap.

    Ron Pernick is cofounder and managing director of Clean Edge, Inc.; coauthor of The Clean Tech Revolution; and sustainability fellow at Portland State University’s School of Business.