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  • Posselt revises Henry Lawson

    “We have made it worse for people,” Mr Posselt said. “Water is very, very divisive. The happiest groups of people that we have come across have been in areas where there’s been very little irrigation.”

    Mr Posselt, 54, left Brisbane on May 27 to paddle and pull his kayak to Adelaide to focus attention on man-made climate change and its effect on the Murray-Darling Basin.

    Irrigation is the backbone of Bourke shire’s economy, but six years of drought have savaged the industry.

    Across the road from Mr Posselt’s Bourke campsite were citrus trees cut back to their stumps so they put all their energy into surviving rather than producing fruit. There has barely been enough water to keep the trees alive and the severe pruning means they will not be able to produce a commercial crop for two years.

    Hardly any cotton has been harvested for six years. There are irrigation businesses in receivership or up for sale.

    Census data show no other local government area in NSW lost a greater proportion of its people between 2001 and 2006 than Bourke.

    Some say that climate change has rendered Bourke’s irrigation unsustainable and money from the Federal Government’s $10 billion water security plan should be used to shut it down.

    “As Australians, we should all hang our heads in shame that we have let it get to this situation,” Mr Posselt said.

    To combat climate change, coal-fired power should be replaced by renewables as soon as possible, he said, and federal control of the Murray-Darling Basin was “fundamental”.

    Bourke’s Mayor, Wayne O’Mally, is a climate-change sceptic who believes the local irrigation industry has a strong future because what is being experienced is simply a drought like many other long dry spells Bourke has endured.

    “There’s absolutely no doubt in my mind that this drought is a cycle of nature,” he said. “Every single thing that happens with nature doesn’t have to be put down to climate change.”

    But Cr O’Mally is in favour of federal action to prevent Queensland irrigators taking what he believes is too much water from Darling River tributaries.

    He has also campaigned to have floodwater from coastal rivers like northern NSW’s Clarence piped into the tributaries of the Darling.

    Mr Posselt says the river will be dammed “over my dead body … every society in the world that has done major inter-basin water transfer has failed eventually”.

  • Stargazers lobby for lights off at night

    From the Scotsman

    A FIFTH of the world’s population can no longer see the Milky Way with the naked eye due to artificial lights blocking out the view of the stars.

    This year, which is International Year of Astronomy, a new project is taking place to try to improve the visibility of the stars.

    Campaigners at the Dark Skies Awareness project will be lobbying local authorities and members of the public to turn off lights in built-up areas at night.

    Malcolm Smith, an astronomer at the Cerro Tololo Inter-American Observatory in Chile, wrote about the importance of the project in the journal Nature.

    He said: “Over the past six decades, professional and amateur astronomers have been pioneering efforts to curb light pollution to protect the viability of their observatories.

    “During the 2009 International Year of Astronomy, particularly through the Dark Skies Awareness project, astronomers can find allies in a common cause to convince authorities and the public that a dark sky is a valuable resource for everyone.” Mr Tololo explains that turning lights off at night has benefits beyond improving the view of the stars.

    “Reducing the number of lights on at night could help conserve energy, protect wildlife and benefit human health,” he said.

    “The most persuasive arguments for lighting control are economic ones. Estimates by the International Dark-Sky Association, based on work from satellite images, show that cities needlessly shine billions of pounds worth of light directly into the sky each year.

    “As education on these issues improves, some cities are now realising the benefits of controlling such energy waste through better-quality lighting, thereby reducing dangerous glare and confusing lighting clutter.”

    He said that although humans are generally comfortable in artificially-lit environments, it can cause confusion for other species.

    Migrating birds suffer in particular, he said. “In more and more cities in Canada and the United States, switching off at least some of the light in nearly empty skyscrapers reduces the unnecessary annual slaughter of millions of migrating birds.”

    And he argues that losing the ability to see the Milky Way with the naked eye also has a subtle cultural impact on our society.

    “Without a direct view of the stars, mankind is cut off from most of the universe, deprived of any direct sense of its huge scale and our tiny place within it.”

    He highlights the fact that research shows light at night triggers signals that cause a reduction in the normal production of melatonin, which suppresses cell division in cancerous cells.

    Mr Smith thinks gradually an understanding of the potential to make use of the view of the night sky is being realised.

    He argues it could have benefits through ecotourism associated with protected, natural, starlit skies.

    The International Astronomical Union has recently signed a memorandum of understanding with the United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organisation (Unesco) to pursue the goal of identifying and protecting astronomical sites of historic significance.

    The US National Park Service has launched a night-time-visits service in a joint effort between astronomers and park staff. But Mr Smith thinks far more can be done to cut down on the use of lights at night.

    There is no evidence, he argues, that increasing the use of lights at night reduces crime levels.

    And he thinks the use of “blinding headlights” could be reduced.

    “In many places in the world, one can drive around moderately lit, smaller towns with side lights. In the countryside, moderate headlights can be supported with catseye road reflectors,” he says.

    The International Year of Astronomy commemorates the 400th anniversary of Galileo’s use of a telescope to study the night sky

    and aims to give people all over the world the chance to experience the wonders of the night-time sky.

    This year is also the anniversary of many other important dates in the history of astronomy, including the publishing of Kepler’s Astronomia Nova, Huygens’ Systema Saturnium and the first Moon landing. Some 140 countries are participating and the UK will host a series of events, such as spring and autumn moon watches, a competition for 1,000 schools to win a telescope, and a national programme of dark sky activities that are aimed at getting as many members of the public as possible looking up at the night sky.

    Scotland gazes up through some of the least polluted skies in the world, and there is a campaign to create internationally recognised “dark sky parks” where visitors could go to enjoy the full spectacle of the night sky.

    There are currently two internationally recognised dark sky parks in the United States and one in Canada, but as yet no such area in Europe.

    Dark Sky Scotland, in conjunction with the John Muir Trust and Forestry Commission Scotland, organises activities and events throughout the year.

  • UK in EU court over pollution

    The European Union is planning to take Britain to court for consistently breaching air pollution laws, which could result in unlimited daily fines.

    Air pollution near many roads averages well over twice the UN’s World Health Organisation maximum recommended level, which has led to constant infringements of EU air quality laws.

    In particular, diesel engines emit large quantities of minute, sooty particles known as PM10s which are linked to asthma and heart disease. The government’s own figures estimate they result in 12,000 to 24,000 premature deaths a year in the UK.

    The EU environment commissioner, Stavros Dimas, said that PM10 pollution was particularly bad in London. “There are PM10 exceedances in London along more than 200km of roads,” he wrote to Ed Davey, the Liberal Democrat foreign affairs spokesman,

    In his letter Dimas revealed that legal proceedings were being prepared. “The commission services are now preparing the launch of infringement proceedings against the UK. In view of the serious consequences of high concentrations of PM10, the commission expects the UK to ensure a speedy reduction.”

    Britain had been given six years by Europe to reduce its PM10 levels after air legislation was introduced in 1999. This passed into British law in 2005 but documents obtained by the Campaign for Clean Air in London (CCAL) show that limits have been widely breached since then.

    The documents show that more than 20 UK cities and conurbations broke the pollution law in 2006, and Belfast, Coventry, London, Birmingham, Tyneside and Bristol also broke it in 2005. These infringements are expected to be the basis of the EU’s legal case against Britain.

    The case could take two years to come to court, and could prove embarrassing in the run up to the Olympic games.

    The government is also expected to approve plans shortly for a third runway at Heathrow in possible further defiance of air quality laws, and is certain to miss other EU deadlines. A directive, which came into force last June, demands that levels of nitrogen dioxide (NO2) air pollution be reduced on some busy streets by more than a third by the end of this year.

    Unlike PM10 pollution, which mostly affects people living close to traffic, NO2 is much more widespread. High levels can cause lung damage and increased respiratory infections. Nearly half of nitrogen dioxide emissions come from cars and 25% from power stations.

    The only feasible way that Britain can meet its new NO2 target is by tackling traffic congestion with schemes such as low emission zones, which bar the most polluting vehicles from entering areas, or congestion charging as in London.

    Aviation is also a significant contributor of NO2, making the Heathrow decision highly relevant.

    The government plans to hold a three month consultation and then apply for a time extension to come up with ways to meet its NO2 target. Nine other EU countries are also applying for extensions.

    A spokesman for the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs said: “We are unlikely to meet the 2010 deadline in respect of nitrogen dioxide. The problem is mainly about existing pollution from traffic.”

    Simon Birkett of CCAL said: “Legal action to enforce health-based air quality laws is long overdue. We urge the government to say urgently how it will comply fully with these laws. It can try to delay introducing measures to reduce air pollution but eventually it will have to meet these directives.”

  • Quarter of a million die from global warming

    From the Munich RE press release

    A large number of tropical cyclones and the earthquake in Sichuan made 2008 one of the most devastating years on record. Although there was a drop in the number of loss-producing events compared with the previous year (from 960 to 750), individual catastrophes pushed up the numbers of victims and the losses appreciably. Throughout the world, more than 220,000 people died as a result of natural catastrophes this year. Overall losses totalled some US$ 200bn (2007: US$ 82bn) but were still below the record set in 2005 (US$ 232bn in current values). Insured losses in 2008 rose to US$ 45bn, about 50% higher than in the previous year.

    Driven by high losses from weather-related natural catastrophes, 2008 was – on the basis of figures adjusted for inflation – the third most expensive year on record, exceeded only by the hurricane year of 2005 and by 1995, the year of the Kobe earthquake. Torsten Jeworrek, member of Munich Re’s Board of Management: “This continues the long-term trend we have been observing. Climate change has already started and is very probably contributing to increasingly frequent weather extremes and ensuing natural catastrophes. These, in turn, generate greater and greater losses because the concentration of values in exposed areas, like regions on the coast, is also increasing further throughout the world.” Munich Re is a world leader in terms of investigating risks from natural hazards of all kinds. “2008 has again shown how important it is for us to analyse risks like climate change in all their facets and to manage the business accordingly,” said Jeworrek.

    Some of the main events in detail:

    In 2008, Asia was again the continent affected by the worst human catastrophes. Cyclone Nargis is estimated to have claimed the lives of more than 135,000 people in Myanmar: 85,000 deaths have been officially confirmed, whilst 54,000 people are still missing. With very high wind speeds, record rainfalls, and a storm surge, the tropical storm caused devastation primarily in the low-lying Irrawaddy Delta and in the old capital, Rangoon. Since large parts of the mangrove forests – a natural form of coastal protection – have disappeared in recent years, there was nothing to prevent storm surge travelling as far as 40 km inland. The country was inundated with water up to 3.5 metres deep, and more than a million of Myanmar’s inhabitants were made homeless.

    The earthquake that hit the Chinese province of Sichuan, a region classified as being highly exposed to earthquake, was a further human catastrophe. According to official statistics, around 70,000 people were killed, 18,000 are still missing, 374,000 were injured, and almost five million were made homeless. At the same time, the Sichuan quake – which occurred in May – also produced the largest single overall loss of 2008. The total figure of US$ 85bn made it the second most expensive event of its kind after the Kobe earthquake (Japan, 1995).

    Earlier in the year, China had already suffered enormous losses amounting to more than US$ 21bn due to an unusual cold spell with huge volumes of ice and snow. These had a major impact on the infrastructure in 18 provinces: roads and railways were blocked and in some places destroyed, and the electricity supply collapsed.

    In terms of insured losses, Hurricane Ike was the most expensive individual event in 2008. Whereas in the previous two years, the US mainland had largely been spared by heavy cyclones, the 2008 hurricane season generated substantial losses which also affected the insurance industry. Six tropical cyclones (Dolly, Edouard, Fay, Gustav, Hanna, and Ike) reached the US coast in close succession this year, the severest being Ike, which made landfall as a Category 2 hurricane near Galveston (Texas). The storm surge triggered by Ike submerged large sections of the Texas and Louisiana coast. As the storm progressed over the mainland, extreme precipitation caused more and more damage, resulting in an insured loss estimated at US$ 15bn (not including the claims covered under the National Flood Insurance Program). The overall loss caused by Ike was US$ 30bn. The year’s second most expensive hurricane was Gustav, with an overall loss of US$ 10bn and an insured loss of US$ 5bn.

    The number of tropical cyclones in the North Atlantic in 2008 was much higher than the long-term average and also higher than the average of the current warm phase since 1995, which is more pronounced as a result of climate change. A total of 16 tropical cyclones were counted during the year; the average for the warm phase so far is 14.7. Eight of these windstorms reached hurricane strength, five of them being classified as major hurricanes (Categories 3–5). In terms of both the total number of storms and the number of major hurricanes, 2008 is the fourth most severe hurricane season since reliable data have been available. The tornado season in the United States, which runs from April to September, was also unusually severe. There were roughly 1,700 tornadoes in 2008, generating an aggregated loss of several billion US dollars.

    According to provisional estimates published by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), 2008 was the tenth warmest year since the beginning of routine temperature recording and the eighth warmest in the northern hemisphere. This means that the ten warmest years ever recorded have all occurred in the last 12 years. “It is now very probable that the progressive warming of the atmosphere is due to the greenhouse gases emitted by human activity. The logic is clear: when temperatures increase, there is more evaporation and the atmosphere has a greater capacity to absorb water vapour, with the result that its energy content is higher. The weather machine runs in top gear, bringing more intense severe weather events with corresponding effects in terms of losses. This relationship is already visible today in the increasing heavy precipitation events in many regions of the earth, the heat waves, and the hurricanes in the North Atlantic. The loss statistics for 2008 fit the pattern that the calculations of climate models lead us to expect,” said Prof. Peter Höppe, Head of Munich Re’s Geo Risks Research.

    Compared with the devastation that natural catastrophes caused in Asia and America in 2008, the losses in Europe were relatively moderate. Nevertheless, there were also two events in Europe that generated billion-dollar losses for the insurance industry. At the beginning of March, an intense low-pressure system named Emma swept across large parts of central Europe with very high wind speeds, thunderstorms, and hail; in Germany, Denmark, Poland, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Switzerland, and Austria, it caused an overall loss of US$ 2bn, of which US$ 1.5bn was insured.

    Hilal, a low-pressure storm that crossed southwestern Germany (especially Baden-Württemberg) at the end of May and the beginning of June, caused major damage due to strong gusts, hailstorms, and flash floods. With an insured loss of US$ 1.1bn, Hilal was the seventh most expensive natural catastrophe in the global statistics for the year.

    Board member Dr. Torsten Jeworrek: “For us as a leading reinsurer, the natural catastrophe trends of recent years have resulted in three action strategies, which we are resolutely pursuing. Firstly, we accept risks in our core business only at risk-adequate prices, so that if the exposure situation changes, we adjust the pricing structure. Secondly, with our expertise we develop new business opportunities in the context of climate protection and adaptation measures. Thirdly, in the international debate, we – as a company – press for effective and binding rules on CO2 emissions, so that climate change is curbed and future generations do not have to live with weather scenarios that are difficult to control.” Munich Re performs scientific analyses on the effects of climate change and cooperates with many scientific institutes. In 2008, Munich Re launched a cooperation with Professor Lord Nicholas Stern and the London School of Economics (LSE), the aim being to advance research into the economic impact of climate change.

    Munich Re actively supports ambitious climate protection goals. This approach also opens up enormous opportunities because of the new technologies that emerge with very large growth potential. As a risk carrier with innovative coverage concepts in the field of alternative sources of energy (wind, solar, geothermal), Munich Re promotes these technologies and thus secures additional business potentials for itself. Board member Dr. Torsten Jeworrek: “The next climate summit in Copenhagen must quite clearly fix the route for reducing greenhouse gases by at least 50% by 2050 with corresponding milestones. If we delay too long, it will be very costly for future generations.”

    Munich Re assigns natural catastrophes to one of six categories for assessment purposes. The annual list includes all events with more than ten fatalities and/or losses running into millions.

  • Government support for renewables essential

    by Tam Hunt, Community Environmental Council

    What is the best size for a renewable energy project? The answer is, of course: it depends. It depends on location, renewable energy resources (sun, wind, etc.), and costs. The bottom line is, however, that we truly do need all the renewable resources we can get. We have major crises either upon us or heading our direction that require a rapid buildout of renewable resources. At the same time, we need to vigorously pursue all available energy efficiency improvements.

    Regarding the goldilocks problem of renewable energy, it’s important to be aware of the costs and feasibility of the various market segments. I divide the renewable energy market into three segments: small-scale (one megawatt (MW) and less); medium-scale (one to twenty MW); and large-scale (above 20 MW).

    The advantage of small-scale renewables like rooftop solar photovoltaics is that they can be built relatively quickly due to fewer permitting hurdles. They also take advantage of rooftops or parking lots, so don’t require disturbing large amounts of land. Even though there are still permitting problems in many jurisdictions, conditions have improved remarkably in recent years. At the same time, the general public has become more tolerant of seeing solar panels on rooftops. And installers have become more adept at installing small installations tastefully.

    The primary downside to small-scale renewables is that they are often still relatively expensive. It also requires a lot of small-scale renewables to add up to a large-scale impact in terms of climate change mitigation or energy independence. California enacted the California Solar Initiative in 2007, with a goal of 3,000 MW by 2017. This sounds like a lot, but it will comprise about half of one percent of California’s power needs in 2017. We need much more. The CSI is also relatively expensive. The program provides about US $3 billion over ten years in rebates. Even with rebates and federal tax credits (amounting to billions more dollars), rooftop solar is still, in many situations, significantly more expensive than other types of solar.

    For example, medium-scale solar facilities (one to twenty megawatts) cost about half what residential solar facilities cost, on a unit basis (cents per kilowatt hour). When we’re talking about thousands of megawatts, this adds up to a big difference to ratepayers and taxpayers. Medium-scale solar facilities have a major advantage in that they generally don’t require any serious transmission infrastructure to be added.

    A recent report from the California Energy Commission’s Renewable Energy Transmission Initiative found the potential for about 28 gigawatts of medium-scale solar (20 megawatts each) in California alone. This is enough for about one-fifth of our total power demand.

    The main downside to medium-scale solar is that it is still relatively expensive when compared to fossil fuel power. This is why we haven’t seen a huge buildout in this segment already. As I wrote about in my last column, we need costs to come down a little and/or to provide just a few cents more policy support for medium-scale solar power and we will probably see this market take off. I’m optimistic that we’ll see this happen, but it will probably still be a couple of years before new regulations are in place to achieve this change.

    The large-scale renewable energy segment is the least cost segment. This should not be surprising because economies of scale, by definition, lead to lower costs. Large-scale projects cost one-fifth to one-third less than medium-scale projects, depending on a number of factors.

    Large-scale projects can be truly large: Clipper Windpower recently announced a new deal with BP for a 5,000 megawatt wind farm in North Dakota, to be named, appropriately, “Titan.” In California, Edison and Alta announced an agreement in 2007 for a 1,500 megawatt wind farm in the Tehachapi region. And numerous solar projects have been announced around southern California, some approaching 1,000 megawatts in scale. Clearly, with a dozen or two of these types of projects in California, we can make a serious dent in greenhouse gas emissions and in improving energy security!

    Figure 1, below, shows the approximate costs of each type of solar power, as a representative renewable energy technology. Many factors determine the actual costs at any given location, but these figures show the relative costs, which is my key point. Keep in mind that these cost figures do not include taxes and rebates because my figures represent the total societal costs — not just the costs paid by a homeowner, utility or other entity.

     

     

     

    Figure 1: Approximate total societal costs for solar market segments. (Sources: California Energy Commission; Black & Veatch; E3).

    The downside, of course, to these large-scale projects is that they can have large-scale impacts. One proposed solar project will cover nine square miles. And large wind farms have viewshed impacts that affect many residents and may have impacts on wildlife (though the actual impact is far less than detractors often claim). All of these impacts must be weighed against the alternatives — coal, nuclear, natural gas, big hydro — and it is quite clear to me, at least, that the impacts from even these very large projects are far less than the alternatives. But I can’t speak for everyone and unfortunately these large projects arouse the ire of many in the communities where they are proposed.

    So what should policymakers do? Which size is “just right”? Again, we need all the renewable energy we can get – and quickly. So while the answer does depend on many facts specific to each case, the complete answer is that no size is just right — we need them all. But we should also keep in mind that there are tradeoffs for each market segment.

    No renewable energy project should, however, be given carte blanche. All projects should be as environmentally sound as possible. But when comparing different types of renewables it’s very important to keep in mind the relative economics and the relative impacts of each type.

    In this Goldilocks story, then, Goldilocks tries each bowl of porridge and declares: “They all present unique flavors and textures, and I like each in their own special way. But I’m still hungry! Can I please have some more of all three?”

    Tam Hunt is Energy Program Director and Attorney for the Community Environmental Council in Santa Barbara. See www.cecsb.org for our regional energy blueprint. He is also a Lecturer in renewable energy law and policy at the Bren School of Environmental Science & Management at UC Santa Barbara.

  • Kiwis test jet fuel bean

    Air New Zealand tested a jet fuel made from the jatropha plant on Tuesday as the airline searches for an affordable and environmentally friendly alternative to crude oil.

    For two hours, pilots tested the oil, in a 50-50 blend with conventional jet fuel in one of the four Rolls-Royce engines powering a Boeing 747-400 aircraft — the first test flight by a commercial airline using jatropha oil. Rob Fyfe, Air New Zealand’s chief executive, called the flight a milestone in commercial aviation. “Today we stand at the earliest stages of sustainable fuel development and an important moment in aviation history,” he said. The project has been 18 months in the works.

    Unlike other biofuel crops like soybeans and corn, jatropha needs little water or fertilizer and can be grown almost anywhere — even in sandy, saline or otherwise infertile soil. Each seed produces 30 to 40 percent of its mass in oil, giving it a high per-acre yield, specialists said.

    The results of the flight — and two others planned by rival airlines in the United States and Japan in January — will be closely watched by an industry that is trying to shift toward renewable, low-emissions fuels.

    A sharp rise in crude oil prices — to more than $145 a barrel in July — offer a strong incentive for the industry to reduce its exposure to volatile oil prices. But pressure to reduce carbon emissions has also driven the search for alternatives.

    The International Air Transport Association, which represents 230 airlines, wants its members to use 10 percent alternative fuels by 2017. The association has the goal that airlines will be able to fly carbon-free in 50 years, with the help of technologies like fuel cells and solar energy.

    Such goals have ensured that research and development into greener flying have continued, despite the plunge in oil prices below $40 a barrel.

    Having conducted a series of tests Tuesday, Air New Zealand and its partners, the aircraft manufacturer Boeing, the engine maker Rolls-Royce and the technology developer UOP, a part of Honeywell, will review the results “as part of our drive to have jatropha certified as an aviation fuel,” the flight’s chief pilot, Capt. David Morgan, said.

    The hope is that the test results will lay the groundwork for jatropha to be commercially available in three to five years, executives from the companies said.

    In February, Virgin Atlantic became the first airline to test a biofuel blend in a commercial aircraft, using a 20 percent mixture of coconut oil and babassu nut oil in one of its four engines.

    Two more airlines are to test their alternatives next month. Continental Airlines will conduct a test flight on Jan. 7 using a blend that includes algae and jatropha, the first biofuel test flight of a commercial airliner owned by an American company.

    And Japan Airlines is planning a test flight Jan. 30 using a fuel based on the camelina oilseed.

    But the potential use of jatropha has not been free of criticism, with some observers fearing that farmers could be tempted to grow jatropha rather than edible crops in the hope of getting better prices.

    Algae may be free of this potential problem, but research into algae is not as far advanced, said an Air New Zealand spokesman.

    Air New Zealand said the jatropha used on Tuesday’s flight had been grown in Malawi, Mozambique and Tanzania.