Category: Uncategorized

  • British weather scientists link flooding to climate change

    Local residents carry belongings as they walk in the flooded part of the town of Staines-upon-Thames, England, while a police van patrols the area, Wednesday, Feb. 12, 2014. Prime Minister David Cameron insisted Tuesday that money is no object in the battle against the widespread flooding that has engulfed parts of England. Canceling a visit to the Middle East to oversee flood-fighting efforts, he told journalists that "whatever money is needed for this relief effort will be spent" as Britain deals with some of its wettest weather in 250 years. (Lefteris Pitarakis/AP)

    British weather scientists link flooding to climate change

    JILL LAWLESS And SETH BORENSTEIN

    LONDON — The Associated Press

    Published Wednesday, Feb. 12 2014, 9:34 PM EST

    Last updated Wednesday, Feb. 12 2014, 9:38 PM EST

    • 0
      0
      0
      0
    • AA

    Britain’s weather service says it sees the tentacles of climate change in a spate of storms and floods battering the country, but has stopped short of saying that global warming directly caused the extreme conditions.

    The latest round of bad weather slammed into Britain’s west coast on Wednesday with torrential rain and winds gusting up to 106 mph (170 kph). Trucks were toppled, trees were felled and a major chunk of the railway was closed.

    The website of rail operator Virgin Trains greeted visitors with the words: “Do Not Travel.”

    England, which has been lashed by wind and rain since December, had its wettest January since records began in 1766.

    The resulting floods have drenched the southwestern coast of England, the low-lying Somerset Levels and the Thames Valley west of London, where hundreds of properties have been swamped after the Thames burst its banks.

    Britain’s Met Office, the nation’s weather agency, said in a paper published this week that “there is no definitive answer” on the role played by climate change in the recent weather and floods. But it said there is “an increasing body of evidence that extreme daily rainfall rates are becoming more intense,” probably due to a warming world.

    Met Office chief scientist Julia Slingo told the BBC that “all the evidence suggests there is a link to climate change.”

    It was the latest in a series of assertions by weather agencies linking extreme weather events with human-made global warming. Last year the Met Office and the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said events ranging from Superstorm Sandy flooding to U.S. heat waves to extreme rainfall in Australia and New Zealand had all been made more likely by climate change.

    The Met office study discusses evidence of increasingly extreme weather events and links both Britain’s damp winter and the extreme cold that has hit the United States and Canada to “perturbations” in the jet stream over the Pacific Ocean and North America. But it does not say outright that global warming caused the flooding. To do that, scientists take months, sometimes years, to conduct detailed computer simulations — and the report said such research was needed in this case.

    In the United States, NOAA research meteorologist Martin Hoerling said the Met Office study “identifies many challenges for research” rather than drawing firm conclusions.

    But Pennsylvania State University climate scientist Michael Mann said it was “a remarkably blunt report for a group that is typically characterized by a staid approach.”

    “The bottom line is this: we are indeed now seeing with our very eyes the impacts of climate change on severe weather, record heat, drought, more intense hurricane activity,” Mann said in an email. “The only question at this point is how far downstream this treacherous torrent we are going to paddle.”

    A similar question — when will it end? — was being asked by many Britons, from flooded farmers to riverside residents piling sandbags against the encroaching waters of the Thames.

    “I tried to prepare for this, I bought 100 pounds of sand and I called the council,” said Suhair Al-Fouadi, a resident of the town of Egham, who woke Wednesday to find a foot of water in her house. “But they would do nothing. Now I have water from the sewer coming in through my doors.”

    The Met Office issued its highest-level red warning of “exceptionally strong winds” Wednesday for west Wales and northwest England. It said a gust of 106 mph (170 kph) was recorded at Aberdaron in northwestern Wales.

    Railway operator Network Rail said the main west coast train line would close for several hours Wednesday evening because of the wind. Two Premier League soccer matches have been postponed because of safety concerns related to the weather, while a man in his 70s died of suspected electrocution while trying to move a tree that had downed some power cables near the English town of Chippenham.

    London itself was expected to be safe from the flooding since it’s protected by the Thames Barrier, a series of 66-foot (20-meter) high metal gates across the entire river. The massive gates can be closed to stop the tide from coming up the Thames, which gives more space for the river to handle excess water from upstream. At low tide, the Thames barrier is then opened and the floodwaters flow to the sea.

    Yet the Met Office says there will be no quick end to Britain’s flood misery.

    At least one more storm is forecast for later this week. It says some areas could get up to 2.75 inches (7 centimetres) of rain — a month’s worth — by Friday.

  • The early return of El Nino

    The early return of El Nino

    ClimateCentral

    A new study shows that there is at least a 76 percent likelihood that an El Niño event will occur later this year, potentially reshaping global weather patterns for a year or more and raising the odds that 2015 will set a record for the warmest year since instrument records began in the late 19th century.

    The study, published on Monday in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, builds on research put forward in 2013 that first proposed a new long-range El Niño prediction method.

    Although they occur in the equatorial tropical Pacific Ocean, the effects of El Niño events can reverberate around the globe, wreaking havoc with typical weather patterns. El Niños increase the likelihood for California to be pummeled by Pacific storm systems, for example, while leaving eastern Australia at greater risk of drought. Because they are characterized by higher than average sea surface temperatures in the equatorial tropical Pacific Ocean, and they add heat to the atmosphere, El Niño events also tend to boost global average temperatures.

    By acting in concert with manmade greenhouse gases, which are also warming the planet, calendar years featuring a strong El Niño event, such as 1998, can more easily set all-time high temperature records.

    Today, scientists can only reliably predict the onset and severity of El Niño events by about 6 months ahead of time. And this lead time may actually decrease due to Congressional budget cuts for ocean monitoring buoys that provide crucial information for El Niño forecasting.

    The new study, by an international group of researchers, takes a starkly different approach to El Niño forecasting compared to conventional techniques. While the forecast models in use today tend to rely on observations of the ocean conditions and trade winds that generally blow from east to west across the tropical Pacific, the new method relies on an index that compares surface air temperatures in the area where El Niño events typically occur with temperatures across the rest of the Pacific.

    The researchers found that a strong link between air temperatures across the Pacific and air temperatures in region where El Niño forms appears about one calendar year before an actual El Niño event. Taking advantage of this observation, the scientists devised a forecasting index based on the strength of the links between temperatures in and around the El Niño region. This index, the study said, points to a high likelihood of an upcoming El Niño late in 2014.

    “Our approach uses another route,” said study coauthor Armin Bunde, a scientist at the Institute for Theoretical Physics in Giessen, Germany, in an email conversation. “We do not consider the water  temperature in a specific area of the Pacific Ocean, but the atmospheric temperatures in all areas of the Pacific.”

    While the the study claims to be more definitive than other forecasts, projections derived from ocean- and statistically-based models from the National Weather Service and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) at Columbia University already show increasing odds, to the tune of twice the average risk, of an El Niño starting in the late summer or early fall as well.

    Some leading El Niño forecasters were skeptical of the new study, in part because it puts forward a technique based only on statistics, with no improved understanding of the underlying physics of the Pacific Ocean and atmosphere. Bunde told Climate Central that he and his colleagues have yet to discover the physical connections between the rest of the Pacific and the El Niño region, but that they are still investigating.

    “This is classic bravado — they make a forecast: if it is wrong, everyone forgets; if they are right, they get big points. In the meantime, people cite their papers,” said Lisa Goddard, director of IRI and a senior scientist there. “There is no physical explanation of what is going on.”

    Bunde said the temperature index method is more reliable than traditional forecast techniques.

    “When we give an alarm, the alarm is correct in 3 of 4 cases and false in 1,” Bunde said. “We can forecast El Niño about 1 year ahead. The conventional forecasts have a considerably shorter warning time of about 6 months, with a lower hit rate than our method. The disadvantage of our method is that we cannot predict the strength of the El Niño event. But we hope to overcome this shortage of our algorithm in the near future.”

    Bunde said the extra 6 months of warning time could have significant economic benefits, since it covers an entire “agricultural cycle,” thereby giving farmers more time to adapt to wetter or drier than average conditions.

    In the study, the scientists said they are aware of “the reputational risks” involved with making an El Niño prediction so far in advance. “Should our alarm turn out to be correct, however, this would be a major step toward better forecasting,” the study said.

    However, Anthony Barnston, chief forecaster at IRI, told Climate Central that the new method is not likely to stand the test of time. “This scheme shows a good performance now, but after another 6 years (and 2 new El Niños) it may not look nearly as good, and they will have to change something to restore skill,” he said.

     

  • Can an Australian Tesla emerge from wreckage of car industry?

     

    Can an Australian Tesla emerge from wreckage of car industry?

    By on 13 February 2014
    Print Friendly

    A year or two before its demise, Holden was offered the opportunity to throw in a small amount of money to try and help the development of an electric Commodore. The sum requested was minor, but refused.

    In retrospect, the request was possibly a little like suggesting Kodak should go digital, or a coal-fired generator go green. Incumbents find it difficult to look beyond their own business model and the quarterly report to shareholders.  And then they fall flat on their face.

    tesla electric vehicle

    Image courtesy of ShutterStock

    The question about an EV manufacturing industry in Australia is an interesting one. There will be huge debate about whether an Australian EV maker could compete on the international market, in the same way that the local subsidiaries of Holden, Ford and Toyota struggled.

    But there is one key element that may be overlooked – over and above the obvious technical talent and infrastructure that Australia deploys in its car manufacturing sector. And that is latent demand, and the potential support of the huge electricity utility industry, who could throw their considerable weight behind EV deployment to address their own weaknesses in their business model.

    As RenewEconomy noted last year, the utilities industry has been looking for some time to EVs, and its infrastructure of storage and charging stations, as an antidote to declining demand and the threat of the death spiral. It’s about the only way they can see themselves being able to buy into the new distributed energy model.

    It is remarkable to see how vocal those interests have become. The major utilities are now actively pushing EV adoption in their submissions to the Energy White Paper and other reviews. Could their involvement lead to the development of a “clean car” industry in Australia. There is an awful lot at stake, and an awful lot of reasons why it could.

    The Australian Electric Vehicle Association says the departure of Mitsubishi, Holden, Ford and Toyota  – owing to their “uncompetitive business models”, presents Australia with a unique chance to foster its own auto-manufacturing capacity.

    “Whether it is foreign investment from a large automaker or a locally conceived EV, Australia is well placed to design, build and market EVs to the world,” it says in its submission to the energy white paper.  “The AEVA strongly supports any effort to redirect funds away from petrol-burning carmakers, and towards producers of plug-in hybrids and pure EVs here in Australia.”

    It notes that the exits of the big carmakers mean Australia will have three production lines available, excellent auto design skills (Australia is one of the few in the world to be able to design and build a motor vehicle from concept to delivery, and expertise gained in the construction of the hybrid Camry. The success of Tesla showed how EVs could appeal to the market.

    It also notes that the high penetration of domestic solar in Australia is a natural fit to charge EVs at home, and 140,000 households who cashed in on the NSW solar bonus scheme will be looking for something to do with their excess capacity when those tariffs finish at the end of 2016.

    Such ideas are likely to gain support from the utilities industry – retailers, generators, and network operators, to address the significant over-capitalisation of the network, and to arrest declining demand that are affecting other areas.

    Origin Energy, for instance,  is promoting the deployment of electric vehicles as one area of abatement that should be encouraged through the Direct Action process. “When bundled with a renewable energy product such as GreenPower, EVs can provide a zero emissions solution,” it writes in its submission to the Senate inquiry on Direct Action.

    “They also provide other benefits, such as by shifting demand to off-peak times, thereby reducing costs on the electricity network.”

    This theme has been taken up by AGL Energy, which says in its submission to the energy white paper that EVs could reduce the Australian economy’s reliance on imported liquid fuels by substituting domestically-generated electricity.

    “This represents a significant opportunity to improve Australia’s structural trade position and energy security,” it says. Further, EVs have zero tailpipe emissions, and therefore do not contribute to air pollution or ‘‘smog.’’ Over time, high EV uptake could significantly improve air quality in urban areas.

    AGL Energy argues that charging EVs, even in Australia’s current fossil-fuel dominated generation mix, would produce around 18kg of CO2e per 100 km of driving, about 35 per cent lower than an average petrol car, although roughly equivalent to a new midsize petrol sedan or hatch. And it says the electricity fleet will likely clean itself up much quicker than the petrol fleet. EVs charged using accredited GreenPower (as at 2010) would produce 2 kg CO2e per 100kms.

    AGL Energy says that with the right price signals – such as time of use pricing it has been promoting for years, would enhance the utilisation rate of existing electricity grid infrastructure, and reduce unit pricing for all consumers. It suggests that Australia should consider government targets or mandates for electric vehicle uptake.

    As the AEVA suggests: Electric vehicles present a major electricity storage option for the grid, as vehicle-to-grid energy flow would allow more intermittent sources of electricity such as that from solar and wind, to be utilised as the need arises. We believe that further investment into the development of “smart” electricity distribution networks is essential, and would deliver considerable efficiencies if executed properly. A high price should be offered to households who re-supply electricity from fully charged EVs, as this represents a premium reserve which can be accessed rapidly.

    In short, an Australia EV manufacturing industry is a potential answer to so many issues – an Australian manufacturing base, employment, electricity bills, network death spirals, and emissions reduction – it could encourage the uptake of solar and other renewables. Bit of a no brainer really.

    Update: This week, an EV battery charging facility powered by dual-axis solar trackers was installed at Kangaroo Island’s airport. The system will provide more than 100MWh of electricity, enough to offset the consumption of the local airport, and combined with 14kW rooftop solar PV system on Council Chambers, will support the charging of three Nissan LEAF electric vehicles.

    K

     

     

  • Electric-vehicle production worldwide forecast to surge 67% in 2014 print

    Electric-vehicle production worldwide forecast to surge 67% in 2014

    • Email
      Share
      0
      LinkedIn
      0
    BMW i3Global production of electric vehicles will rise 67% in 2014, according to a new report by IHS Automotive. Above, the BMW i3. (David Undercoffler / Los Angeles Times)
    By David UndercofflerFebruary 4, 2014, 11:06 a.m.

    Attention electric vehicles: 2014 will be good to you.

    That’s the prediction from IHS Automotive, which said Tuesday it expects global production of EVs and plug-in hybrid EVs (PHEVs) to rise 67% this year. That compares with just a 3.6% increase in the production of all vehicles globally.

    Several key factors account for the expected increase in electric vehicles.

    “European emissions standards are tightening in the second half of this year,” Ben Scott, an analyst for IHS Automotive, said in a statement. “At the same time,” he added, “European automakers are introducing compelling new EV models.”

    Those new additions to the EV landscape include BMW’s i3 electric city car and i8 PHEV sports car, the Audi A3 E-tron PHEV, Mercedes-Benz B-Class EV and Volkswagen E-Up EV (which won’t be sold in the U.S.).

    This means more than 403,000 electrified vehicles are expected to be built in 2014, up from 242,000 in 2013. The 2013 figure itself was a 44% rise from a year earlier, IHS reported.

    With so many new European models flooding the marketplace, the Europe, Middle East and Africa region is expected to build 40% of all EVs in 2014. Asia will build an additional 30%, while the U.S. will make about 27% of all EVs in the world, IHS said.

    Much of that U.S. production is made up by the Nissan Leaf, Chevy Volt, Tesla Model S, and Ford C-Max plug-in hybrid.

    As production increases, prices of EVs should continue to fall. The Nissan Leaf is $6,000 cheaper in 2014 than the same car was in 2012, the IHS report said. The price drop was crucial to the Leaf’s drastic rise in popularity in the U.S.: sales in 2013 were up 130% over 2012.

    In the search for more customers, the Chevy Volt, Honda Fit EV, Fiat 500e, Ford Focus EV and plug-in version of the Toyota Prius all saw their sticker prices drop in 2013. “Price is the main reason why uptake of these vehicles hasn’t been as high as expected, so incentives are critical if countries are serious about the adoption of such vehicles,” the IHS report said.

    Cheaper battery technology helps. A price war between lithium-ion makers LG (in the Chevy Volt) and Panasonic (in the Tesla Model S) is helping, and Samsung is entering the fray by building a battery for the BMW i3 and Fiat 500e.

    China is another driver of EVs’ global popularity. The country is using government-sponsored mandates to drive sales of these cars in an effort to curb China’s significant pollution problem and the adverse health and economic effects it’s having. The city of Beijing is limiting sales of new cars while also deploying 20,000 EVs in 2014, and a total of 170,000 EVs by 2017, the IHS report said.

     

    A

  • Slogans stifled debate – and we let them

    Slogans stifled debate – and we let them

    Posted 2 hours 53 minutes ago

    If we had pushed for solid policy ideas and not slogans before the federal election, we might be better prepared to address the issues that confront us, writes Jonathan Green.

    An election, at least in theory, gives our informed consent to the work of an incoming administration.

    Good word, administration. Is that what we hope for from our elected representatives, that they keep an eye on things? Run the firm on behalf of the stockholders?

    “The people of Australia thank you for your presentation and are pleased to offer you the opportunity to form a government based on the program you have outlined.”

    That kind of thing. Mind you, that’s a scenario that assumes:

    a: The voting public has some kind of determining influence over the electoral agenda; and

    b: That it gives much of a damn in the first place.

    Both somewhat contestable.

    Which takes us to the condescending mass of cliché and twaddle that was our most recent experience of the democratic miracle: A federal election in which both parties stood nervously in each other’s policy shadow, told us as little as they could about the concrete and problematic realities that confront us, never mind what either might do about them, then posed for a poll that hung all but exclusively on one simple proposition: we are not them.

    The issue of informed consent then is probably moot.

    The election was all about dumping a government seen as divided and dysfunctional. This is probably because in large part the previous government was divided and dysfunctional, an unfortunately overwhelming distraction given the gravity of the national circumstance. But that was the electoral narrative: getting rid of Labor.

    And now, with a new government in power the position of the country seems to grow more awkwardly complex by the day as we confront realities untamed by politics. In an election, reality can be sculpted, in government it must be confronted.

    It is entirely possible, for example, to gain power on the basis of the slightest of policy prescriptions. For Tony Abbott this amounted to a recurring and simple series of pledges:

    “We’ll build a stronger economy so everyone can get ahead. We’ll scrap the carbon tax so your family will be $550 a year better off. We’ll get the budget back under control by ending Labor’s waste. We’ll stop the boats. And we’ll build the roads of the 21st century because I hope to be an infrastructure prime minister who puts bulldozers on the ground and cranes into our skies.”

    As the weeks and months have moved on it has become increasingly clear that the terms of this electoral contest, terms largely determined by the government’s calculated minimalism, did us no favours.

    We went to the polls after an exchange of slogans rather than ideas … and the worst kind of slogans. Slogans that increasingly seem not to have been a shorthand for a more elaborate and considered system of policy and belief, but, well, slogans, entire of themselves.

    As we are beginning to see, as 2014 unfolds with its faltering in manufacturing and numerous other signs of an economy in “transition”, there was quite a bit of solid policy ground the 2013 election might have dealt with.

    Could our decision-making process on who might best administer our commonwealth have been aided by a robustly expressed series of thoughts on how we set about the restructure of an economy tripping out of a mining boom, stumbling towards the end of manufacturing and looking for a sustaining future direction?

    That sort of process would not have changed the outcome. The ALP was roadkill regardless of the detail of the campaign. But a more vigorous, a more testing debate might have been of benefit to the incoming government. You could argue, too, it was the debate we probably deserved, and that as a consequence we might now have a series of policy proposals that might extend beyond this encapsulation of the government’s current thinking on industry policy offered by the prime minister to AM’s Chris Uhlmann: “If you ask me, Chris, can I say what individual Toyota workers will be doing in four years’ time, I can’t give you that answer, but Chris, none of us know the answers to those questions. What we’ve got to do is remember that we are creative people in a capable country who have always faced the future with confidence and have always made the most of it.”

    Our 2013 discussions on the economy could also have been partnered by a more than rhetorical musing over the state of federal fiscal affairs; unless repeated exhortations to “stop the waste” will be sufficient to resolve the sort of structural imbalances that, if left unattended, seem certain to leave the federal budget in a state of spiralling decline.

    As the Grattan Institute put it last year: “Australian government budgets are under pressure. In the next 10 years, they are at significant risk of posting deficits of around 4 per cent of GDP. That means finding savings and tax increases of $60 billion a year.”

    Cutting the waste may not cut it.

    Resolving the troubled balance between declining commonwealth revenues and multiple running sores of galloping expenditure will be the work of one or two parliamentary terms and will involve comprehensive reimagining of what it might be to be an Australian economy in the 21st century.

    Anybody sign up for that in September 2013? No. Not really.

    And we all have to take some responsibility for that, for governments that can coast on their campaign rhetoric when in power no matter what aggravated circumstances they confront.

    If we had demanded better, if our media had pushed harder for more considered responses and insisted that the electoral argument go beyond cliché and slogan, then we might by now have a national conversation of the sort of maturity that seems, increasingly, demanded by the circumstances we confront.

    Because that’s the tricky thing about circumstances: they seem resolutely impervious to slogans.

    Jonathan Green hosts Sunday Extra on Radio National and is the former editor of The Drum. View his full profile here.

     

  • What does ocean acidification mean for sea life?

    A news stream provided by the Ocean Acidification International Coordination Centre (OA-ICC)

    What does ocean acidification mean for sea life?

    Published 12 February 2014 Media coverage Leave a Comment

    pic blog 12feb

    Photo by Dana Roeber

    February 7, 2013 — The sky is low and dusky, and the rain comes in blustery gusts as we make our way out onto a spill of rocks that juts seaward from the shore just north of Boiler Bay on the Oregon coast. Low tide is just beginning; at times it looks as if we’ll be swamped by waves. It’s October 30 and in the late afternoon gloaming, my eyes take a few minutes to adjust so I can begin to differentiate mussels from rock and to spot the clutch of seals watching our progress.

    To the scientists who make up the Ocean Margin Ecosystem Group for Acidification Studies, this spot is known as the Fogarty Creek Intertidal Long-Term Ecological Research Site. The obvious drama of this place comes from the waves and wind and charismatic whiskered marine mammals. But I’m here to witness a different kind of drama with Oregon State University graduate student Jeremy Rose, who specializes in marine ecology and is part of a team of scientists investigating the effects of ocean acidification on the small organisms that inhabit the rocky tide-pool landscape beneath our feet.

    While it can’t be seen in a glance, what’s happening to the marine environment on the Pacific Northwest coast as a result of the growing concentration of carbon dioxide in Earth’s atmosphere is indeed dramatic. Since the mid-18th century, human activity—mainly fossil fuel burning—has increased the atmospheric concentration of CO2 by about 40 percent. Because oceans absorb about a quarter of the CO2 released into the atmosphere each year, as more CO2 enters the atmosphere, more ends up in the ocean. “Think of carbon as a global pollutant that affects the ocean everywhere it touches the sky,” explains Stanford University marine science professor and Hopkins Marine Station director Steve Palumbi.

    As CO2 dissolves in seawater, chemical reactions produce an acid. Over the past 250 or so years, the acidity of the world’s oceans has increased 30 percent. Scientists believe oceans have not experienced the current level of acidity in about 2 million years. Not only that, but according to National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration senior scientist Richard Feely, conditions are changing faster than anything seen in geologic history. If today’s global CO2 emission trends continue, scientists estimate that by the end of this century, oceans will be more acidic than they have been for more than 20 million years.

    And that’s a problem. The rise in dissolved CO2 and concurrent drop in pH (lower pH indicates higher acidity), changes ocean chemistry in a way that robs marine organisms, such as mollusks and corals, of the carbonate ions they need to build shells and skeletons. At the same time, the increasing acidity can erode the structures they’ve already built, and appears capable of disrupting their bodies in other ways that make it hard for them to thrive. This is bad news not only for the organisms themselves, but also for people who rely on them for food and jobs, and perhaps even more profoundly, for the stability of the ecosystems with which they—and we—are intertwined.

    Investigating Impacts

    The chemistry behind ocean acidification is well understood. What scientists are working on now is trying to understand what is happening within marine organisms and their coastal communities as the ocean’s pH drops at the same time marine environments experience other stressors such as warming temperatures, pollution and overfishing.

    Among their big questions: Can marine species adapt to this rapid change, and if so, how? Or as Morgan Kelly, a postdoctoral researcher studying ocean acidification impacts at the University of California, Santa Barbara, puts it, “Will evolution come to the rescue?”

    To begin to answer this question, scientists are exploring how—down to the subcellular level—marine species are responding biologically to acidification. They are also examining how individual species’ responses may affect marine ecosystems. An adverse impact to one species, or conditions that overwhelmingly favor another, can create imbalances in the marine food web and lead to survival problems for a whole suite of species. And on an even larger scale, scientists are investigating what such changes may mean for fisheries and the people who depend on them, and how marine policy and conservation might respond.

    Laboratory experiments are part of the picture. But because ocean conditions are so complex and difficult to replicate, scientists are also conducting research in places like Fogarty Creek. The OMEGAS project, which includes study sites along the northern California and Oregon coast, is tracking ocean pH with offshore sensors while monitoring what’s happening biologically at these sites to intertidal species as seawater becomes more acidic. As UC Santa Barbara professor Gretchen Hofmann explained at the 2012 Ocean in a High CO2 World meeting held in Monterey, Calif., in September, scientists are investigating the “fine tuning of populations to their local environment” in locations now experiencing the most dramatically lowered pH.

    Purple Urchin

    As Rose and I walk out on the rocks, at first I see only boulders and water. But as I crouch to get a better look, an intricate world comes into focus. Yards of pearly black mussels are punctuated by patches of pale whorled pointy shells of gooseneck barnacles. Beneath the surface of the water, trapped in small pools as the tide recedes, are clusters of anemones that look like upside-down branchless coral. I spot a few fat pink sea stars and several distinct types of algae. Among these are long, bright-green rubbery streamers, short dull olive bristly algae and delicate lacy salmon-colored coralline algae, named for the calcareous skeleton that looks like bones of an exceptionally tiny bird. Deeper underwater, nestled among the anemones, are the creatures we have come to see: Strongylocentrotus purpuratus, the purple sea urchin.

    Purple sea urchins are of interest to marine biologists studying ocean acidification for numerous reasons. These creatures live up and down the Pacific Coast where pH is changing markedly. Their habitat is one that naturally varies greatly with the ebb and flow of tides. It is also a highly structured community of species in which the sea urchins play an important role, as a food source for sea otters, in controlling algae and as a component of a healthy ecosystem. They’re also a well-studied species—so well studied that their entire genome has been sequenced, enabling scientists to investigate genetic impacts of ocean acidification. This information is essential to understanding the species’ future and how their fate may affect other ecological community members.

    Because the pH recorded on the Oregon coast is much lower than that in California (thanks to ocean circulation, seasonal winds and upwelling), how the northerly purple sea urchins are responding to ocean acidification will help scientists understand what may happen to this whole community of species as ocean pH drops further, explains Kelly. It appears that seawater pH affects how hard the urchins must work to maintain the biochemical balance within their cells. That some seem to be “doing okay” under lower pH doesn’t mean that all is well, says Kelly. It means they’re doing something to compensate.

    Tyler Evans, Kelly’s colleague at UC Santa Barbara, is an environmental physiologist and postdoctoral fellow investigating how higher dissolved CO2 and lower pH affect sea urchins’ genes. By looking at the individual genes, he hopes to see exactly which are being altered by the changes in seawater chemistry and how ocean acidification is affecting the genes’ ability to make proteins—among the most basic building blocks of life. Thus far, Evans explains, they’ve identified important changes in how sea urchins’ cells transport calcium and sodium. A balance of these is vital to urchins, both for maintaining healthy cell function and for shell building. If sea urchins have to work harder to maintain this balance, it could affect their development or ability to reproduce. If urchins fail to thrive, it would likely have an adverse affect on their entire community of mussels, sea stars, anemones, fish and marine mammals.

    “The behavioral and energy changes needed to maintain yourself as a species are really complicated,” explains National Center for Atmospheric Research scientist Joanie Kleypas, a pioneering ocean acidification researcher. Not only that, notes Stanford’s Palumbi, the costs of coping with changes such ocean acidification may take more than one generation to become apparent.

    Similar effects have been observed for species other than the purple sea urchin. In lab experiments, green sea urchin larvae exposed to low pH have grown more slowly and developed physiological abnormalities. Mussels exposed experimentally to low pH appeared to have increased metabolic rates, reduced reproduction and some immune system suppression—all clear indications that acidified conditions are adversely affecting these animals’ physiological functions.

    Natural Laboratories

    To investigate the ecological impacts of acidification over the long term, scientists are also studying what are effectively natural laboratories for high CO2—places where the gas bubbles up through vents in the ocean floor. One such site is in the Mediterranean, where UC Davis Bodega Marine Lab postdoctoral researcher Kristy Kroeker and colleagues are studying how these conditions affect the ecology of the local reef community.

    Reef communities are typically very biologically diverse, with numerous species that each play important roles in the community’s physical structure and food web, explains Kroeker. But under high CO2 conditions, certain algae begin to dominate while the coralline algae that depend on calcium carbonate fare less well, changing what the community provides in the way of food and shelter. Kroeker and her colleagues are investigating how seemingly small changes in these food and structure roles will play out on an ecosystem scale and how this compares to acidification-related changes at sites like Fogarty Creek.

    As Kleypas explains, such studies will help us understand if “a community is going to change a lot or not” under ocean acidification and how any changes that do occur might affect the community’s ecological resilience. Changes to a community’s anchor or keystone species—one that plays a crucial role in an ecosystem’s function—she explains, are the most likely to affect the whole food web.

    By learning which species are most vulnerable to acidification and which are better able to adapt, scientists can target conservation measures aimed at protecting those species, explains Kelly. This could involve curtailing other pollutants or development that’s adversely impacting vulnerable species and habitat, including by identifying potential reserves. Such actions can’t remove excess CO2 already in the system, but they can help build resilience. This could be particularly helpful where important fisheries may be affected, says Kelly. But, cautions Evans, “we really don’t know yet what it takes to survive in a low pH ocean, and we need that information to set conservation priorities.”

    Get a Grip

    Yet these are but short-term strategies as the world tries to get a grip on the carbon emissions that are ultimately responsible for ocean acidification.

    “First and foremost,” says NOAA outgoing administrator Jane Lubchenco, “we need to demand that our elected representatives take seriously the need to reduce carbon emissions, and that’s true at a national level but also at the local level.”

    The process of ocean acidification, like the other manifestations of climate change prompted by excessive atmospheric CO2, now cannot be reversed entirely. But with swift and dramatic action, the rate of change might be slowed. And to help lessen acidification’s impacts, scientists suggest addressing not only carbon emissions but other environmental stressors that can exacerbate these effects as well. We “also need to reduce other sources of pollution,” including excess nutrients from both urban and rural sources, Lubchenco says.

    This is exactly the strategy Washington state’s Blue Ribbon Panel on Ocean Acidification recommended in a report released in November. The report formed the basis of an executive order signed by Washington governor Chris Gregoire the same day. The first such policy aimed at tackling ocean acidification, both the report and the executive order (designed to implement the report’s recommendations), combine strategies to reduce CO2 emissions and other pollution that exacerbates acidification, along with $3.3 million in funding for research and implementation. The recommendations are also be part of legislation Washington state senator and blue ribbon panel member Kevin Ranker recently introduced—and that he says he hopes will be copied by other coastal states.

    “We have a lot of work to do,” says Lubchenco, noting that most people in the U.S. have not yet heard of ocean acidification. “But,” she says, “if they like eating oysters or salmon or enjoy watching whales or scuba diving in coral reefs, they should be paying attention—because it’s a serious threat.”

    “The basic policy message,” says Palumbi, is that carbon emissions are “a global pollutant, and we have to fix this problem.” While a shellfish hatchery may be able to control the chemistry of water in its tanks or choose a different species to farm, the same can’t be done in the world’s wild oceans.

    In the meantime, as effects of ocean acidification play out, scientists and policy makers continue the quest to understand how individual species and marine communities will fare and how this information can be used to protect them before even more dramatic changes occur. “When it comes to ocean acidification,” says Lubchenco, “we’re all still explorers.”

    Elizabeth Grossman, Ensia, 7 February 2014. Article.

    Rate this:

    Rate This

    Share this post!

    0 Responses to “What does ocean acidification mean for sea life?”

    1. Leave a Comment

    Leave a Reply

    Subscribe to the RSS feed

    Powered by FeedBurner

    Follow AnneMarin on Twitter

    Blog Stats

    • 704,901 hits

    OUP book

    Top Posts