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  • Met Office: Evidence ‘suggests climate change link to storms’

    Met Office: Evidence ‘suggests climate change link to storms’

    Somerset

    Climate change is likely to be a factor in the extreme weather that has hit much of the UK in recent months, the Met Office’s chief scientist has said.

    Dame Julia Slingo said the variable UK climate meant there was “no definitive answer” to what caused the storms.

    “But all the evidence suggests there is a link to climate change,” she added.

    “There is no evidence to counter the basic premise that a warmer world will lead to more intense daily and hourly rain events.”

    More than 130 severe flood warnings – indicating a threat to life – have been issued since December. In contrast, there were only nine in the whole of 2012.

    More than 5,000 properties have been flooded over this period, although the Environment Agency says investment in flood defences over the past decade has protected a further 1.3 million properties.

    ‘Exceptional’Speaking ahead of the launch of a Met Office report – produced by the Centre of Ecology and Hydrology – into recent climatic events, Dame Julia said the UK had seen the “most exceptional period of rainfall in 248 years”.

    Unsettled weather at this time of year was not unexpected – but the prolonged spell of rain, as well as the intensity and height of coastal waves, was “very unusual”.

    “We have records going back to 1766 and we have nothing like this,” she said. “We have seen some exceptional weather. We can’t say it is unprecedented but it is exceptional.”

    The report links the recent extreme weather in Europe and North America to “perturbations” in the North Atlantic and Pacific jet streams, partly emanating from changing weather patterns in South East Asia and “associated with higher than normal ocean temperatures in that region”.

    “The attribution of these changes to anthropogenic [caused by humans] global warming requires climate models of sufficient resolution to capture storms and their associated rainfall,” it says.

    ‘Makes sense’”Such models are now becoming available and should be deployed as soon as possible to provide a solid evidence base for future investments in flood and coastal defences.”

    David Cameron has said the UK must be prepared for more extreme weather.

    At Prime Minister’s Questions last month, Mr Cameron said he “suspected” that the recent storms to batter the UK and the extreme weather in North America were connected to global temperature changes – an argument challenged by some Conservative MPs and peers.

    He subsequently clarified the remarks, saying that although “you can’t point to one weather event and say that is climate change”, many scientists were talking of a link between the two.

    “The point I was really trying to make is, whatever you think – even if you think that (climate change) is mumbo-jumbo – because these things are happening more often, it makes sense to do all you can to… prevent these floods affecting so many people and that is exactly what we are doing.”

    Friends of the Earth climate campaigner Guy Shrubsole said this assessment was a “warning sign that cannot be ignored”.

    “By appointing an environment secretary who doesn’t take climate change seriously this government has turned its back on the science and cut flood defence spending when it should be cutting emissions.”

  • Pacific trade winds stall global surface warming … for now

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    from universities, journals, and other organizations

    Pacific trade winds stall global surface warming … for now

    Date:
    February 9, 2014
    Source:
    University of New South Wales
    Summary:
    Heat stored in the western Pacific Ocean caused by an unprecedented strengthening of the equatorial trade winds appears to be largely responsible for the hiatus in surface warming observed over the past 13 years. The strongest trade winds have driven more of the heat from global warming into the oceans; but when those winds slow, that heat will rapidly return to the atmosphere causing an abrupt rise in global average temperatures, scientists say.
    This is a schematic of the trends in temperature and ocean-atmosphere circulation in the Pacific over the past two decades. Color shading shows …

    Credit: Nature Climate Change

    The strongest trade winds have driven more of the heat from global warming into the oceans; but when those winds slow, that heat will rapidly return to the atmosphere causing an abrupt rise in global average temperatures.

    Heat stored in the western Pacific Ocean caused by an unprecedented strengthening of the equatorial trade winds appears to be largely responsible for the hiatus in surface warming observed over the past 13 years.

    New research published today in the journal Nature Climate Change indicates that the dramatic acceleration in winds has invigorated the circulation of the Pacific Ocean, causing more heat to be taken out of the atmosphere and transferred into the subsurface ocean, while bringing cooler waters to the surface.

    “Scientists have long suspected that extra ocean heat uptake has slowed the rise of global average temperatures, but the mechanism behind the hiatus remained unclear” said Professor Matthew England, lead author of the study and a Chief Investigator at the ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science.

    “But the heat uptake is by no means permanent: when the trade wind strength returns to normal — as it inevitably will — our research suggests heat will quickly accumulate in the atmosphere. So global temperatures look set to rise rapidly out of the hiatus, returning to the levels projected within as little as a decade.”

    The strengthening of the Pacific trade winds began during the 1990s and continues today. Previously, no climate models have incorporated a trade wind strengthening of the magnitude observed, and these models failed to capture the hiatus in warming. Once the trade winds were added by the researchers, the global average temperatures very closely resembled the observations during the hiatus.

    “The winds lead to extra ocean heat uptake, which stalled warming of the atmosphere. Accounting for this wind intensification in model projections produces a hiatus in global warming that is in striking agreement with observations,” Prof England said.

    “Unfortunately, however, when the hiatus ends, global warming looks set to be rapid.”

    The impact of the trade winds on global average temperatures is caused by the winds forcing heat to accumulate below surface of the Western Pacific Ocean.

    “This pumping of heat into the ocean is not very deep, however, and once the winds abate, heat is returned rapidly to the atmosphere” England explains.

    “Climate scientists have long understood that global average temperatures don’t rise in a continual upward trajectory, instead warming in a series of abrupt steps in between periods with more-or-less steady temperatures. Our work helps explain how this occurs,” said Prof England.

    “We should be very clear: the current hiatus offers no comfort — we are just seeing another pause in warming before the next inevitable rise in global temperatures.”

    Story Source:

    The above story is based on materials provided by University of New South Wales. Note: Materials may be edited for content and length.

    Journal Reference:

    1. Matthew H England et al. Recent intensification of wind-driven circulation in the Pacific and the ongoing warming hiatus. Nature Climate Change, February 9, 2014

    Cite This Page:

    University of New South Wales. “Pacific trade winds stall global surface warming … for now.” ScienceDaily. ScienceDaily, 9 February 2014. <www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2014/02/140209152454.htm>.

  • REEF NEWS: We’re taking this to court GET-UP

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    REEF NEWS: We’re taking this to court

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    GetUp!
    8:23 PM (40 minutes ago)
    to me
    “This is nothing short of miraculous. We are overwhelmed by the determination of GetUp supporters!” – Environmental Defenders’ Office (EDO) Queensland Solicitor Jo Bragg.

    NEVILLE,

    They must have assumed they’d had the final word.

    When Greg Hunt and the Marine Park Authority approved dumping of five million tonnes of seabed inside Reef waters, it was supposed to be campaign over. Vested interests had won, and our Reef would be sold out for short-term profits.

    Instead, something incredible happened. Thousands of GetUp members put their own money forward to launch a citizens’ Reef Fighting Fund. We’ve never seen anything quite like it.

    All up, more than 16,000 people have donated so EDO Queensland and North Queensland Conservation Council can take this fight to the courts. Together, we’re contributing $130,000 to the legal case right off the bat – $50,000 more than our original target! GetUp members have also ensured we have the resources to fund a strong ongoing campaign that won’t shy away from other hard-hitting legal, legislative and corporate tactics.

    Thank you to everyone who’s made this possible.

    We all know how prolonged and expensive legal fights can be. To their enormous credit, EDO Queensland and North Queensland Conservation Council had been prepared to pull together a case on a barebones budget. Now, it’s a very different story.

    “Now there is money for expert witnesses, court transcripts, barristers’ fees and transport costs. We can be bigger, better and more ambitious with the court case to protect the Reef. This is nothing short of miraculous. We are overwhelmed by the determination of GetUp supporters!” – Jo Bragg, EDO Queensland Solicitor.

    No matter what happens in court, we’ve sent a very uncomfortable ripple through the legions of power and vested interests used to getting their way. Thousands of everyday Australians are making it possible to go toe-to-toe with big mining, and together we will do everything in our power to protect our Reef.

    There’s so much further to go with this campaign, so we’ll be in touch soon. But for now, thank you.

    The GetUp team

  • Spectacle beats substance in political circus

    ENJOY THIS GEM FROM MUNGO MacCALLUM

    Spectacle beats substance in political circus

    Posted 3 hours 20 minutes ago

    The circus is in town and the antics of the Abbott and Howes sideshow is providing plenty of laughs and tears, writes Mungo MacCallum.

    Last week Australian politics ceased to be a contest of ideas or even of emotions. Principal players from both sides decided to turn it into sheer entertainment – a circus, in fact.

    So roll up, roll up, to the greatest show on earth. Well, in the Australian silly season anyway. Gape with astonishment as our performers undertake stunts too outrageous, too improbable, too just plain crazy for the rational mind to contemplate.

    And here, entering from the right, the boneless wonder, the master contortionist, please put your hands together, or perhaps keep them securely on your wallets – yes, it’s Tony Abbott.

    Marvel as he ties himself in seemingly inextricable knots explaining why a handout of $16 million to Cadbury is sound economics but a rescue package of $25 million to SPC Ardmona would be totally irresponsible.

    Now watch as plastic Tony takes up his first position: SPC Ardmona is a subsidiary of a profitable multinational. Well, yes, but can’t the same be said of Cadbury? Yes. And Tony’s twisting again – this time it’s the reverse wriggle, asserting that Tasmania is different because it has the highest unemployment of any state. True, but as Dr Stone points out, the rate in Shepparton, where SPC Ardmona is based, is even higher.

    So Tony’s at it again with the convex convolution: The handout to Cadbury was not about a bailout but about tourism, which makes it OK. So promoting tourism is more worthwhile than saving an industry and the jobs that go with it?

    Wait, Tony’s still on the move. Now it’s the warped wangle: Workers’ conditions at SPC Ardmona were absurdly generous, so it was all the unions’ and the management’s fault. However, as it turns out, the Cadbury agreement with the union United Voice was, if anything, even more lavish. Can Tony untangle himself from this position?

    But we have an interruption, from Tony’s own side of the tent. What was that, Sharman Stone? Hypocrite? Lies? The only real difference is that Cadbury is in a marginal electorate and SPC Ardmona is in a safe one? Not only that, but the Cadbury pledge was before an election and SPC Ardmona after a comfortable win. Would the crowd please stop chanting “pork barrel”. Well, I think we’ll have to leave our screwed up star for the moment, he seems unable to remove his head from his bottom.

    But don’t go away, ladies and gentlemen, there’s more, because entering from the left we have the high-flying whiz-kid from the AWU, the amazing trick cyclist, Paul Howes. And yes, Hot-head Howes is ready for his unprecedented balancing act; perched on the highwire of lofty ambition, he will attempt to juggle the unions, the employers and the ALP while at the same time pretending to be serious about his unsupportable position.

    And please stop laughing. There, he’s away, possibly with the pixies. He’s tossing up the unions, accusing them of corruption and unsustainable wage demands. Now Flexible Tony, suddenly sensing the distraction he needed, has extracted his head and is cheering wildly. And now Preposterous Paul has the employers in the air, challenging them to come to a non-aggressive consensus. And what’s more, he wants Tony, who is in the process of launching a Royal Commission to expunge the unions from the political landscape forever, to come to the party too.

    What was that, Tony? A very 1980s idea? Not quite medieval enough for you? Never mind, I can just detect a murmur from a barely visible figure on the left – at least I think he’s on the left. Bill something? Oh, you think Tony can’t change his spots. Well, it must be the only thing our India rubber man can’t change, but we’ll take your word for it.

    Back to Perilous Paul – oh dear, he’s teetering – someone must have told him that with union membership down to about 15 percent of the workforce, the unions couldn’t deliver consensus even if they wanted to, which they don’t. But look, despite the showers of excrement coming from all sides, Paul is completely undeterred. He’s pressing ahead, he’s heading the press, he is satisfied just to be the centre of attention.

    And he wants a new baby grand – no, I’ve misheard that, what he actually wants is a new grand compact. Perhaps one combining recovery, reconciliation and whatever the other 1983 thing was. Rhubarb, was it? But never mind, Posturing Paul is now putting on another new persona – yes, he thinks he is the new Messiah. More, he thinks he is the new Bob Hawke!

    Paul, you’re presumptuous. To steal a great put down: I knew Bob Hawke, I drank with Bob Hawke. And let me tell you, Paul, you’re no Bob Hawke. Oh, now I’ve done it – Paul has plummeted. But don’t worry ladies and gentleman – I’m assured that it’s only a bruised ego, and Paul has recovered from plenty of those in the past. By tomorrow he’ll be as good as new, back to his insufferable best.

    And how’s Twisted Tony? Well, he’s in the hands of a large man who appears to be a sort of trainer and is offering him some advice. I think I can make it out … the age of entanglement is over? No, entitlement – but Joe, say it ain’t so. No more handouts for the miners, the financial planners, the polluters, the private schools, the private health funds, the big banks, the rich mothers … oh, Joe just said it ain’t so. Well, we never really thought it was.

    But before we close down the tent and get back to business – and politics – as usual, let me remind you that the carnival is not over.

    In fact the big one, the twin ring circus with the all-star case of hundreds, is back in Canberra. Yes, this week parliament resumes. Our little sideshow was just the curtain raiser. Happy stunting, and send in the clowns.

    Mungo Wentworth MacCallum is a political journalist and commentator. View his full profile here.

     

  • Before the last home is torched AVAAZ

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    Before the last home is torched

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    Allison Johnson – Avaaz.org
    12:16 AM (14 hours ago)
    to me
    Dear friends,

    Heavily armed police just burned 1,000 homes to the ground to force indigenous families out of the Kenyan forest. The World Bank has given millions to the forest police, but is staying quiet. If enough of us supercharge the community’s desperate call for help, we can force the World Bank to demand the government halts these vicious land grabs. Sign now:

    SIGN THE PETITION

    Heavily armed police just burned 1,000 homes to the ground to force indigenous families out of the Kenyan forest where they’ve lived for centuries. This desperate community needs our help to save their homes — and the forest — before it’s destroyed forever.

    The World Bank has given millions of our tax dollars to the Kenyan forest police who are annihilating this ancient community. And — with new funding at stake this year — the Bank has massive leverage over the government. So far the Bank is staying mum, but if enough of us supercharge the community’s call for help, we can force it to demand this horror stops.

    World Bank President Jim Yong Kim says he wants to change the Bank. Let’s hold him to his word, demanding that he call on the Kenyan government to stop these vicious land grabs and commit to new human rights standards for all future grants. When a million of us sign, we’ll grab Kim’s attention by showing burning homes outside the Bank’s Washington HQ. Add your name, then send Kim a message, now:

    http://www.avaaz.org/en/stop_the_forced_evictions_loc/?bhPqncb&v=35536

    The Sengwer people have lived in the majestic Embobut forest for centuries and their rights to their ancestral lands are protected under the Kenyan constitution and international law. They’ve already won a court order to stop the evictions, but the government has ignored it, claiming they need to clear the forest to protect water sources for nearby towns. The Sengwer fear that next, the forest will be decimated for profit.

    The Bank has backed many impressive initiatives, but for too long has blamed the governments and companies it lends to when destructive projects force people off their land. But the tide is turning. After an outcry, the Bank pulled back from projects that were driving 30,000 Cambodians a year from their homes. And it admitted it ignored its own policies when it funded a Honduran palm oil company accused of brutal evictions and assassinations. The Bank is now investigating the Sengwer scandal, but far too slowly to save Kenya’s ancient forest peoples.

    The US Congress has just called on the Bank to stop evictions, or risk losing US money. It’s the perfect moment to stop this brutal land grab in Kenya and get the institution to take human rights seriously. Sign now — when a million of us are on board, we’ll deliver our message straight to President Kim:

    http://www.avaaz.org/en/stop_the_forced_evictions_loc/?bhPqncb&v=35536

    After the Tanzanian government announced plans to kick thousands of Maasai families off their lands to build a hunting reserve, almost two million Avaaz members stood with their community. We kept pushing for over a year until finally the Prime Minister allowed them to stay, helping end a 20 year land battle. The Maasai say they couldn’t have done it without us — now let’s do it again, for the Sengwer people.

    With hope,

    Allison, Alex, Joseph, Emilie, Alice, Sayeeda, Ricken and the rest of the Avaaz team

    More information:

    Kenya: KFS Guards Burn Down Homes in Embobut Forest (The Star)
    http://allafrica.com/stories/201401200456.html

    Kenyan families flee Embobut forest to avoid forced evictions by police (The Guardian)
    http://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2014/jan/07/kenya-embobut-forest-forced-evictions-police

    Kenya defies its own courts (Forest Peoples Programme)
    http://www.forestpeoples.org/topics/legal-human-rights/news/2014/01/kenya-defies-its-own-courts-torc…

    U.S. pushes for outside oversight of World Bank (Washington Post)
    http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/us-pushes-for-outside-oversight-of-world-bank-opposes-push-toward-big-hydro/2014/01/24/fb41bb7c-8516-11e3-8099-9181471f7aaf_story.html

    Kenya / Embobut Forest: UN rights expert calls for the protection of indigenous people facing eviction (UN)
    http://www.ohchr.org/EN/NewsEvents/Pages/DisplayNews.aspx?NewsID=14163&LangID=E

    Indigenous Kenyans evicted in the name of ‘conservation’ (New Internationalist)
    http://newint.org/features/web-exclusive/2014/01/23/sengwer-forest-evictions/

    Support the Avaaz Community!
    We’re entirely funded by donations and receive no money from governments or corporations. Our dedicated team ensures even the smallest contributions go a long way.
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  • As Drought Hits, Fracking Poses Threat to Water Supply

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    As Drought Hits, Fracking Poses Threat to Water Supply

    By Nick Cunningham | Thu, 06 February 2014 22:46 | 2

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    A new report finds that hydraulic fracturing is posing a growing risk to water supplies in several regions around the country. Only, instead of groundwater contamination that so often makes the headlines, it is from the massive consumption of fresh water in water-parched areas like Texas, Colorado, and California. Hydraulic fracturing (“fracking”) requires millions of gallons of water to frack single well, and in places that are suffering epic droughts, fracking is increasingly competing for access to water with other uses.

    The report, “Hydraulic Fracturing and Water Stress,” comes from Ceres, a network of investors, companies, and public interest groups that pushes investor money towards sustainable practices. Ceres finds that about three-quarters of all the 39,294 wells hydraulically fractured between January 2011 and May 2013 (the time period they studied) have occurred in water scarce areas, and more than half in areas suffering from drought.

    Select the reports you are interested in:

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    Related article: Natural Gas Locomotives Soon in North America?

    Nowhere is the nexus of fracking and water starker than in the Eagle Ford Shale in south Texas, which produces over 1.2 million barrels of oil and 6 billion cubic feet of natural gas per day. The Eagle Ford suffers from the biggest water challenges out of any shale play in the United States. It has the highest water consumption out of any other shale formation in the country right now. Over 90% of the water used in the affected counties comes from groundwater, as opposed to surface water, contributing to the depletion of aquifers.

    The report finds that, “Texas is ground zero for water sourcing risks due to intense shale energy production in recent years.” And the problem of water use is compounded by the fact that Texas has been suffering from several years of meager rainfall. As Ceres notes, “over two-thirds of Texas continues to experience drought conditions, key groundwater aquifers are under stress and the state’s population is growing.”

    Agriculture and the consumption of water in cities remain the largest sources of water consumption, much more than fracking, but drilling for oil and gas often occur in small communities in dry areas, and thus have an outsized influence over the consumption pattern of water. Competing interests, such as cattle ranching, farming, other industry, and residential use, are finding water more and more a cherished commodity to come by. There are 29 communities in Texas with a presence of oil and gas drilling that are in danger of running out of water within days.

    Related article: Why Current Solutions to Solving our Energy Problems Won’t Work

    Ceres also looked at individual companies with the most exposure to water sourcing risk. For example, Anadarko Petroleum (NYSE: APC) leads the pack with more than 70% of its wells located in high water stress areas. Anadarko used over six billion gallons of water over the study period. Chesapeake Energy (NYSE: CHK) was the biggest user of water out of all the operators measured in the report, but with much of its drilling operations focused in the relatively wet Marcellus Shale, its risk exposure wasn’t as bad as Anadarko’s. The report offers a warning to investors: should these companies be cut off from access to water due to inadequate water supply or water restrictions by local governments, their operations – and therefore their profitability – could be put at risk.

    The Ceres report provides a series of recommendations which include recycling of water used during fracking (a practice already becoming more commonplace among drillers); using wastewater or brackish water; disclosing more information, not only on water use from the company perspective, but also on water availability and requirements for the basin as a whole; and tougher regulations governing the use of water in dry regions.

    The competition between water use for fracking and other uses is not new, particularly in dry areas, but with oil and gas production in Texas expected to double over the next five years, the issue will only grow in its importance.