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New study shows drought, heat waves and cold spells linked to air flow changes. Month-long periods of extreme weather are associated with amplified atmospheric planetary waves – high-altitude winds that meander around the globe – occurring in the mid-latitudes, reports a study published online this week in Nature Climate Change.

Click to enlarge. The polar jet stream – a band of fast winds high in the atmosphere which marks the boundary between cold polar air and warmer air to the south. When large waves develop in the flow, cold Arctic air moves south (as seen here over eastern US) and warmer temperate air moves north (as seen here are central US). Such “wavy” conditions increase the chance of temperature and precipitation extremes. Courtesy: NASA

Variations in high-altitude wind patterns expose particular parts of Europe, Asia and the US to different extreme weather conditions, a new study has shown.

Changes to air flow patterns around the Northern Hemisphere are a major influence on prolonged bouts of unseasonal weather – whether it be hot, cold, wet or dry.

The high altitude winds normally blow from west to east around the planet, but do not follow a straight path. The flow meanders to the north and south, in a wave-like path.

These wave patterns are responsible for sucking either warm air from the tropics, or cold air from the Arctic, to Europe, Asia, or the US. They can also influence rainfall by steering rain-laden storms.

Pioneering new research, carried out by the University of Exeter and the University of Melbourne, has shown that the development of these wave patterns leaves certain Northern Hemisphere regions more susceptible to different types of prolonged, extreme weather.

Dr James Screen, a Mathematics Research Fellow at the University of Exeter and lead author of the study, said: “The impacts of large and slow moving atmospheric waves are different in different places. In some places amplified waves increase the chance of unusually hot conditions, and in others the risk of cold, wet or dry conditions”.

The study showed that larger waves can lead to droughts in central North America, Europe and central Asia, and western Asia exposed to prolonged wet spells. It also shows western North America and central Asia are more prone to heat waves, while eastern North America is more likely to experience prolonged outbreaks of cold.

The collaborative study used detailed land-based climate observations to identify episodes of abnormal temperature and rainfall from 1979-2012 and then examined the wave patterns during these events.

Co-author Professor Ian Simmonds, from the School of Earth Sciences at the University of Melbourne, said the weather extremes they examined were month-long heat waves, cold spells, droughts and prolonged wet periods, which occurred over large areas.

He said: “The study revealed that these types of events are strongly related to well-developed wave patterns, and that these patterns increase the chance of heat waves in western North America and central Asia, cold outbreaks in eastern North America, droughts in central North America, Europe and central Asia, and wet spells in western Asia.

“The findings are very important for decision makers in assessing the risk of, and planning for the impacts of, extreme weather events in the future.”

Abstract

There has been an ostensibly large number of extreme weather events in the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes during the past decade. An open question that is critically important for scientists and policy makers is whether any such increase in weather extremes is natural or anthropogenic in origin. One mechanism proposed to explain the increased frequency of extreme weather events is the amplification of mid-latitude atmospheric planetary waves. Disproportionately large warming in the northern polar regions compared with mid-latitudes—and associated weakening of the north–south temperature gradient—may favour larger amplitude planetary waves although observational evidence for this remains inconclusive. A better understanding of the role of planetary waves in causing mid-latitude weather extremes is essential for assessing the potential environmental and socio-economic impacts of future planetary wave changes. Here we show that months of extreme weather over mid-latitudes are commonly accompanied by significantly amplified quasi-stationary mid-tropospheric planetary waves. Conversely,months of near-average weather over mid-latitudes are often accompanied by significantly attenuated waves. Depending on geographical region, certain types of extreme weather (for example, hot, cold, wet, dry) are more strongly related to wave amplitude changes than others. The findings suggest that amplification of quasi-stationary waves preferentially increases the probabilities of heat waves in western North America and central Asia, cold outbreaks in eastern North America, droughts in central North America, Europe and central Asia, and wet spells in western Asia.

Citation

‘Amplified mid-latitude planetary waves favour particular regional weather extremes’, by Dr James Screen and Professor Ian Simmonds, published in Nature Climate Change online on Sunday, June 22. DOI: 10.1038/nclimate2271

Read the abstract and get the paper here.

The price of power

Image: Power lines leaving the Hazlewood power station in Victoria. (Hamish Blair/Getty Images)

With Australian electricity prices amongst the highest in the world, more and more households are going solar. The big power companies say the Renewable Energy Target is undermining their businesses and they want it wound back. The federal government agrees, so who is to blame for the high price of power? Jess Hill investigates.

Never has it been more expensive to turn on our appliances. In the last few years, our power bills have doubled, making Australia’s electricity prices some of the highest in the developed world.

Prime Minister Tony Abbott blames two things: the carbon tax and the renewable energy target. He says the government’s review of the target will look at its impact on bills, because ‘renewable energy targets are significantly driving up power prices right now’.

But Mr Abbott’s claim that the renewable energy target is expensive is not supported by the data. The Australian Energy Markets Commission says the renewable energy target adds four per cent to the average electricity bill. For an average household, that’s about a dollar a week.

‘For all of the attention that carbon price has got, from the increasing attention the renewable energy target’s got, the main reason that electricity has been getting dearer is the overinvestment in poles and wires, and the fundamental inefficiency in the way that the national electricity market’s working,’ says Richard Denniss, executive director of the Australia Institute.

Federal Treasury estimates that 51 per cent of an average household bill is spent on network costs. Most of that is going towards paying off the $45 billion network companies have spent on updating our poles and wires over the last five years.

This investment was justified by the network companies’ own data, which showed that Australia’s energy demand was going to increase dramatically. But in 2009, just as they were beginning to spend, something unprecedented happened. Energy demand in Australia didn’t go up—it went down. And it’s continued to go down every year since.

Despite the clear reality of falling demand, the network companies insisted that demand was rising, and they carried on investing billions of dollars into the grid. Every dollar of that investment is now being recovered from consumers, via our power bills. Every dollar, plus ten per cent—a guaranteed return granted to them by the regulator.

In 2012, three years after the spending began, the Senate held an inquiry into electricity prices. It was chaired by Labor MP, Matt Thistlethwaite.

‘What we found was those network businesses—that earned the most profits were the ones that invested the most,’ he says. ‘So there was a perverse incentive in the system for an overinvestment in the poles and wires, and that led to dramatic profits for those businesses, but of course it was the consumer that paid for that cost of that additional capital.’

Mr Thistlethwaite says that the inquiry was presented with many examples of infrastructure being built where it wasn’t needed. ‘We discovered a network business that had invested $30 million in a substation in Newcastle, and I actually visited the substation. It wasn’t connected to the grid. The reason why it wasn’t connected to the grid; when the decision was made a couple of years ago to invest in this particular piece of infrastructure, it was projected that the demand would be there. But the demand didn’t eventuate.’

Energy analyst Bruce Mountain from Carbon Market Economics says that although some old infrastructure needed updating, the amount of money wasted on the poles and wires was substantial. ‘I would estimate as an aggregate across the national electricity market, perhaps at least a half of that total spend was not actually necessary, but it does vary by state.’

The staggering rise in electricity prices brought on by this investment has had a rather unintended consequence. ‘Because the price got so high, it made solar even more competitive from the customer’s point of view,’ says David Leitch, a utilities analyst with UBS. ‘Because when you use the solar in your house, you don’t use the wires and poles in the system, so you’re eliminating half the final price.’

The fact that households with solar can save more than half on their power bills has made solar panels an economic choice, not just an ethical one. There are now 1.2 million households getting their daytime power from solar panels.

‘It’s essentially turning households into competitors of the electricity companies, because all of a sudden households are producing electricity, and they’re deciding what to do with it,’ says Mr Leitch. ‘As opposed to just having a choice of take it or leave it from your friendly electricity retailer.’

This article represents part of a larger Background Briefing investigation. Listen to Jess Hill’s full report on Sunday at 8.05 am or use the podcast links above after broadcast.

Solar rooftops are wreaking havoc on the traditional power industry, says Mr Denniss, because they produce the most amount of energy at the time of day when the power industry makes the most money.

‘Solar panels have got this great trick, they make lots of electricity when the sun is shining; that’s when we like to turn our air conditioners on,’ he says. ‘When everybody turns their electricity on at four o’clock on a hot Thursday afternoon, we have enormous demand for electricity for these short periods of peak demand. And that’s when solar panels are at their best.’

‘Solar panels are actually pumping quite a large amount of energy in during these periods of peak demand, and that’s pushing down the peak price. Now that’s great for everybody, except the so-called baseload power stations. Because the baseload power stations used to be able to sell their electricity for a much higher price at four o’clock on that hot Thursday afternoon. From the coal-fired power station point of view, you couldn’t have a worse competitor, because solar is at its best when the market is at its most profitable.’

What that means is that the big coal-fired power plants are earning less for the energy they produce. That’s because Australia has more electricity than it can use.

That’s a big problem, says the federal industry minister, Ian Macfarlane. ‘We’re facing an enormous challenge in terms of an excess generating capacity in electricity in Australia. To be adding large quantities of generation into that situation has to be questioned. The review process will go through those things.’

With energy demand going down, and renewable energy supply going up, Australia simply doesn’t need as much power from fossil fuels anymore. In the last few years, several large coal-fired power stations have been shut down or mothballed.

‘Australia doesn’t need more generation; if we have more wind at the moment, it will displace some other form of generation,’ says Mr Leitch. ‘So no-one wants to be displaced in this world, and we can all understand that.’

That’s one of the reasons why the conventional power industry is lobbying the government to wind back the renewable energy target—known as the RET. The Energy Supply Association of Australia, which speaks on behalf of the conventional power industry, says that now demand has gone down, 41,000 gigawatt hours will represent around 30 per cent of Australia’s energy supply, rather than 20 per cent.
‘The conditions under which the RET was designed no longer exist, and we think the RET is broken and can’t work in an oversupplied market,’ says Matthew Warren, the ESAA’s CEO.

But there has already been a review. At the end of 2012, the Climate Change Authority reviewed the target and recommended that it be maintained. Their review was supposed to provide certainty to the renewable energy industry.

The chair of the Climate Change Authority is Bernie Fraser, a former Reserve Bank governor. He says that just by holding another review, the government has ensured that the 41,000 gigawatt-target won’t be met. ‘Investment is actually being cut back and delayed, and I think because of that, I think it’s apparent now that the 41,000 gigawatts for large renewable energy power plants, is not going to happen. It’s going to be a lesser figure and I think that’s what the opponents, the critics of renewable energy want to see.’

‘Policymakers need to look beyond short-term economic considerations in the interests of some of the big companies to longer-term community interests. And that’s what governments are supposed to do, but unfortunately it’s not happening at the present time,’ he says.

So it’s a bit… well, it’s more than a bit, it’s very disappointing that we’re falling behind, and we are falling behind what many other countries are doing.

Daily News for Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency, Wind, Wave, Solar & Biofuel

EcoCAR 2 ( Solar Thermal Magazine ) – For the last three years, teams from 15 colleges across North America have been putting the pedal to the metal designing, building and refining an energy-efficient, consumer-ready alternative fuel vehicle as part of the Energy Department’s EcoCAR 2 competition. Yesterday as the competition drew to a close, the Ohio State University was crowned the winner of EcoCAR 2: Plugging into the Future.

EcoCar 2, a collaboration between the Energy Department and General Motors, challenges collegiate teams to develop innovative ways to improve the fuel economy and reduce the environmental impact of a vehicle without compromising its performance, safety or consumer acceptance. Over the course of the competition, EcoCAR 2 put students’ skills to the test while providing them with hands-on, real-world experience to become clean energy leaders.

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To start, teams were challenged to incorporate advanced technology components — including electric drive powertrains (the part of the car that converts power from the fuel source into the mechanical power needed to drive the wheels) and battery systems — into an existing vehicle. After using software to model their proposed vehicle architecture, GM provided each team with a 2013 Chevrolet Malibu to transform into an advanced plug-in hybrid vehicle that can compete with the most fuel-efficient cars on the market. The teams then followed a real-world engineering process based on the same process GM uses for developing its own vehicles to re-engineer the vehicle with their advanced design.

During EcoCAR 2 Year 1, teams focused on designing their vehicles — including virtually testing their cars’ architectures and developing all the systems necessary to turn their vehicles into plug-in hybrids. In the second year, teams redesigned their physical vehicles using cutting-edge automotive engineering processes. Year 2 finals culminated with on-road vehicle testing at the same proving grounds course that GM uses to test its own vehicles.

As part of the last year of the competition, students have continued to improve their vehicles, refining them into near-production prototypes. They then traveled to Michigan and Washington, D.C., for a 12-day, two-part finale that included a 300-point safety inspection, a 100-mile emissions and energy consumption test to measure the vehicle’s fuel economy and an autocross event where professional drivers pushed the teams’ cars to the limits, zooming through a serpentine road course.

Throughout the entire competition, students were required to keep their vehicle’s viability and consumer appeal in mind, and judges graded the vehicles on their noise, vibration and overall finish.

Ohio State University’s vehicle came out on top after taking the lead in multiple categories, including best pre-competition safety & technical inspection, lowest criteria emissions and best communications plan. Last night, the team won 14 awards — and a total of 21 awards over the course of the Year 3 competition — for their plug-in hybrid electric vehicle that runs on electricity and E85. This setup gives the car about 40 miles of all-electric driving with an additional 150-250 miles of driving using the internal combustion engine.

Source: U.S. DOE

Photos courtesy of EcoCAR2  and Sarah Gerrity, Energy Department

Innovating Alternative and Renewable Energy Solutions

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New Energy Technologies is developing the first-of-its kind SolarWindow™ technology, which enables see-through windows to generate electricity by ‘spraying’ their glass surfaces with New Energy’s electricity-generating coatings – the subject of forty two (42) patent filings.

Watch our SolarWindow™ Introduction Sketch Video!

SolarWindow™ Topics

SolarWindow™ generates clean electricity on see-through glass windows, by making use of the energy of natural sunlight and artificial sources such as fluorescent and LED lighting typically installed in offices, schools, and commercial buildings.  Under an exclusive world-wide licensing agreement with the University of South Florida, together with a Cooperative Research and Development Agreement with the U.S. Department of Energy—National Renewable Energy Laboratory, covering forty two (42) patent applications, we currently have several product development goals for our SolarWindow™ technology:

• SolarWindow™- Commercial – A flat glass product for installation in new commercial towers under construction and replacement windows;
• SolarWindow™-Structural Glass – Structural glass walls and curtains for tall structures;
• SolarWindow™-Architectural Glass – Textured and decorative interior glass walls, room dividers, etc.
• SolarWindow™-Residential – A window glass for installation in new residential homes under construction and replacement windows;
• SolarWindow™-Flex – Flexible films which may be applied directly on to glass, similar to aftermarket window tint films, for retrofit to existing commercial towers, buildings, and residential homes; and
• SolarWindow™-BIPV – Building product components associated with building-integrated-photovoltaic (―BIPV‖) applications in homes, buildings, and office towers.
• SolarWindow™ coatings for commercial and military aircraft, and the safety and security of military pilots.

How do we generate electricity on see-through glass for commercial application in homes, offices, and commercial buildings?

New Energy’s solution is unique to our SolarWindow™ coatings, which:

• Make use of the world’s smallest functional organic solar cells, which measure less than ¼ the size of a grain of rice, and have been shown to successfully produce electricity in a published peer-reviewed study in the Journal of Renewable and Sustainable Energy of the American Institute of Physics;
• Are sprayed on to see-through glass using a novel, patent-pending process presented in AZoNano’s (peer-reviewed, Journal of Nanotechnology Online; Dec. 20, 2009), “Nanotechnology Thought Leaders” series;
• Do not require expensive high-temperature or high-vacuum production methods, but rather, can be sprayed on to glass at room temperature;
• Generate electricity from both natural and artificial light sources, outperforming today’s commercial solar and thin-film technologies by as much as 10-fold; and
• Measure less than 1/10th the thickness of ‘thin’ films (only 1/1000th the thickness of human hair).

Our SolarWindow™ technology — capable of generating electricity on see-through glass windows — is under development for potential application in the estimated 5 million commercial buildings in America (Energy Information Administration) and more than 80 million single detached homes.

Thin film vs. mono/polcrystalline panels

Quite often we’re asked about the advantages of monocrystalline panels and polycrystalline solar modules over their amorphous thin film counterparts; particularly in home solar power grid connect systems.

In all our grid connect packages, we only use good quality poly or monocrystalline panels (except in very specific circumstances) for the following reasons:

Less roof space required

Mono and polycrystalline modules need far less surface/roof area – and roof space is very valuable real estate when it comes to solar energy related electricity production. You may have just enough roof space to deck it out in thin film panels now; but what about later if you wish to upgrade? We’ve seen instances where home owners have had to rip up all their thin film panels and sell those at a loss in order to boost the size of their solar power system.

In the future, solar energy may also have a huge role in personal transport – such as recharging electric vehicles.

With the world rapidly moving towards renewable energy sources, we envision a time in the not-too-distant future where the type of solar array used; specifically the ability to scale up, will also factor into house price values.

Don’t underestimate the value of your north facing roof area – poly and mono solar panels are the best choice, even just on that point alone.

Ease of installation

Some amorphous thin film panels actually need more mounting rails and take longer to install; adding to the overall cost of the system

Embodied energy

While thin film offers a lower level of embedded energy per panel, the fact that more panels are needed somewhat negates this aspect, especially given the extra mounting rails sometimes needed. Embodied energy refers to the amount of energy required to manufacture and supply a product.

Other environmental concerns

Some thin film solar products uses cadmium telluride (CdTe). Cadmium is a heavy metal that accumulates in plant and animal tissues. Cadmium is a ‘probable carcinogen’ in humans and animals. While cadmium telluride doesn’t pose a threat while the panel is in service, disposal of this toxic waste when the product reaches the end of its life comes at large cost and suitable facilities are not present in Australia currently

General performance

We’ve noticed that some companies use reports and impressive graphs on efficiency to show amorphous thin film as being superior. In most cases we’ve seen, the data is taken from the late 1990’s – it’s over 13 years old! Like any technology, solar power has rapidly evolved, and that includes the performance of polycrystalline and monocrystalline panels.

In most conditions in Australia, we strongly recommend poly/monocrystalline panels; the only exceptions being far North Queensland and the Northern Territory where amorphous thin film may have some performance advantages during the hottest times of the year and given the amount of solar radiation in those areas (a separate issue to heat.).

Durability

Thin film is still relatively new technology whereas mono and poly panels have been around for decades. Some monocrystalline panel installations in the 1970’s are still cranking out power today. Monocrystalline has even withstood the rigours of space travel! Amorphous thin film is yet to prove itself in harsh conditions over a long period of time.

Flate plate vs. tempered glass

In many grid connect packages where thin film is utilized, the panels are covered with plate glass – this is incredibly inferior to tempered glass, both from a safety and durability aspect. The type of glass used in a panel is so important – it just doesn’t pay to cut costs by cutting corners on material quality. We’ve published a full article just on this topic – plate vs tempered glass.

Exaggerated claims of shading tolerance

The simple fact of the matter is, no panel is shade tolerant to any great degree and it just doesn’t make sense to install an expensive solar power system in an area that experiences a great deal of shade as the system’s performance will be extremely low.

Comparing apples to apples in grid connect

In a addition to the above points, if you’re looking to buy a solar power grid connect system, ensure you compare similar systems in terms of price – what you are getting for your money. The difference between a 1kw system and a 1.3kw system may not sound like much, but there’s a huge difference in power output; approximately 33%.

Adding to your system in the future

As mentioned, the panels we use are some of the best in the solar industry – proven, long lasting, produced in high quantities and will still available for years to come. If in the future you wish to increase your system or need to replace a panel for whatever reason, there will be no shortage in obtaining these products. Many manufacturers actually produce very similar panels in terms of dimensions, so that you are not tied to one particular manufacturer, but actually have a choice.

In the case of thin film there is no such assurance as these panels are produced in much lower quantities by a smaller number of manufacturers. You might find that you are stuck with old technology that cannot be easily upgraded.

So why do we sell thin film panels?

Energy Matters does stock thin film solar panels, all good quality brands. As mentioned, we recommend amorphous thin film for North Queensland and for the Northern Territory. Flexible thin film panels are also extremely well suited to curved structures where flat panel mounting isn’t viable. Thin film is also desirable for some off grid and mobile applications as they are lightweight. Finally, we also sell them because our customers demand them, however we do point out the advantages of monocrystalline when people enquire.

There’s a great deal of competition among suppliers of grid connect systems now given the generous government solar power rebates on offer and the decreasing price of solar technology. It’s very important that consumers shop around and check the way systems are promoted against the actual facts behind any particular type of component before making a purchase decision. Don’t be afraid to ask questions – after all, it’s a substantial investment and a decision you’ll be living with for a very long time!

Confused about grid connect solar power? Contact one of our friendly experts for free, no-obligation advice tailored to your specific needs on 133-SUN or via email

Related – Tips for buying solar panels