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  • Barnaby Joyce, New England and Senate Vacancies (Antony Green)

    April 15, 2013
    Barnaby Joyce, New England and Senate Vacancies

    I’ve been asked several times since Barnaby Joyce won National endorsement to contest New England, whether he has to resign from the Senate to contest New England.

    The short answer is no he does not have to resign, or at least not yet. However, he will need to resign once the legal election campaign is under way later this year if he wants his nomination to be accepted.

    If Joyce wins New England, he will become only the sixth person to represent two states in the Parliament, and the first to represent one state in the Senate and another in the House. He would also be the first two-stater since Billy Hughes to change state without an intervening defeat.

    If Joyce is not successful, he can be appointed to the Senate vacancy created by his resignation. However, Senator Joyce has ruled out this escape route. I’m sure Senator Joyce would not want to be seen as a politician who says one thing before an election to get elected, but does something else after the election.
    At this stage Senator Joyce is just a selected National Party candidate. Until the writs for the election are issued, there is no election, there is no call for nominations, and there are no candidates.

    While the Prime Minister has stated the election will be held on 14 September, that has very little meaning for the mechanics of the election until the writs are issued. According to the timetable published by the AEC, the writs will be issued on Monday 12 August, nominations will close on 22 August and the election will be held on 14 September.

    Senator Joyce must resign from the Senate before his nomination is lodged. Registered parties nominate candidates centrally, so Senator Joyce must resign from the Senate before the National nomination list is lodged, one day before the close of nominations.

    If Senator Joyce does not resign before his nomination is lodged, his nomination will be void. So you can be absolutely certain that Senator Joyce will have his resignation letter in the hands of the Senate President before the close of nominations.

    For the moment Senator Joyce can remain a Senator for Queensland at the same time as he is the National candidate for New England.

    Senator Joyce was first elected in 2004 and re-elected in 2010. His most recent term stated on 1 July 2011. His current term expires in 30 June 2017. Once he resigns from the Senate, the Parliament of Queensland will appoint a replacement to fill the balance of his term through to 2017.

    If Senator Joyce wins New England, the Queensland Parliament will act promptly to fill his vacancy.

    But what about if Joyce is defeated contesting New England? Can he be appointed to his own vacancy?

    The only Senator to be appointed to fill the vacancy caused by their own resignation was South Australian Jeannie Ferris. She had a qualification problem in relation to her election, a problem that was nullified by resignation and re-appointment.

    A Senator has never been re-appointed to their Senate vacancy after contesting the House, though it was briefly mooted in relation to John Stone after losing his House tilt in 1990. It has happened in the NSW Legislative Council, where Christian Democrat Fred Nile resigned to contest the 2004 Senate election, and was re-appointed to his own seat after he missed out on election.

    So Joyce could be re-appointed as long as the Queensland Parliament has not already filled his vacancy. However, as I pointed out, Senator Joyce has ruled out this path.

    Senator Joyce follows a well trodden path, as since the 1960s there have been some very high profile Senators who have resigned to win election to the House. These include Fred Chaney, Gareth Evans, Bob McMullan, John Gorton, Allan Rocher, Kathy Sullivan and Bronwyn Bishop. Three others, Steele Hall, Belinda Neal and Cheryl Kernot, switched houses with a break in service, in the case of Hall and Neal, losing at their first attempt to move to the House.

    If successful, Joyce will become only the sixth MP to represent more than one state, and the first to do so by switching chambers. He would also be only the second after Billy Hughes to do so without an intervening electoral defeat.

    Billy Hughes is the best known state shifter, representing the NSW seat of West Sydney 1901-17, shifting to Bendigo in Victoria after the Labor split on conscription, then the safe conservative seats of North Sydney and Bradfield 1922-52. Of course, Hughes is better known for his habit of switching party.

    The most recent state shifter was Nelson Lemmon, representing Forrest in WA from 1943 until defeated in 1949, then St George in NSW from 1954 until defeated in 1955.

    Labor’s Parker Moloney represented the Victorian seat of Indi 1910-13 and 1914-17 when he was defeated because of his opposition to conscription. He then crossed the Murray River to win the NSW seat of Hume in 1919, representing that seat until defeated in 1931, despite choosing to continue living in Melbourne.

    Dr Lewis Nott won Herbert at the 1925 election, an important result as he defeated Labor’s Ted Theodore, who had resigned as Premier to contest the seat. Theodore was forced to move to Sydney to enter Federal parliament. Nott was defeated in 1928, but moved to Canberra and became Medical Superintendent of Canberra Hospital. He won the new ACT seat in the House of Representatives at the 1949 election as an Independent, but was defeated by Labor’s Jim Fraser in 1951.

    The final case is Labor’s William Spence who represented the NSW seat of Darling 1901-17. Defeated at that year’s election, he was re-elected at a by-election for the Tasmanian seat of Darwin, but contested a Melbourne seat unsuccessfully at the 1919 election.

    UPDATE: I am sure I heard Senator Joyce say in an interview that he would not go back to the Senate. I can’t find the relevant quote, but it would make a good question for his next interview.

    Posted by Antony Green on April 15, 2013 at 08:45 PM in Electoral Law, Federal Politics and Governments, Senate Elections | Permalink

  • Shale gas is not a low emissions fuel

    Shale gas is not a low emissions fuel

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    Bloomberg reported that too much valuable methane from natural gas is leaking into the atmosphere, hurting the bottom line as well as the climate. We know how to stop it. It’s cheap to do and it can pay for itself.

    Natural gas production in the United States has been booming and is expected to keep growing. Already, there are more than 500,000 wells and 300,000 miles of pipeline in place. In 2012, US producers brought more than 25 trillion cubic feet of natural gas to market. And by 2020, the United States is projected to be a net exporter of natural gas.

    Natural gas is here to stay. Its low price is spurring investment and jobs and increasing energy security. But it’s important to get it right. Much of the growth is driven by hydraulic fracturing or fracking a process in which producers can drill more than one mile down and one mile across to access gas in rock formations. While shale gas has been an economic boon, the process can contaminate water supplies, cause air pollution, and have other disruptive impacts on the land and communities.

    Without methane leakage, natural gas would create only about half the greenhouse gases per unit of energy as coal. Yet, methane is 72 times more potent than CO2 measured over 20 years, which is particularly important given that climate change is happening even more quickly than many models have predicted. (Methane has around 25 times more warming potential than CO2 over a 100 year timeframe.) At around three percent leakage, natural gas becomes more harmful than coal in the near term.

    WRI recently conducted an analysis to find out what we know about US methane emissions from natural gas and what can be done to rein them in.

    According to the most recent estimate from EPA, more than 6 million tonnes of fugitive methane leaked from US natural gas systems in 2011. In terms of climate impacts, that’s equivalent to 432 million tonnes of CO2 per year over a 20 year time horizon that’s more than CO2 emissions from all sources in Australia in 2011. It’s also more greenhouse gases than from all US petroleum refining, iron and steel, cement and aluminum manufacturing facilities combined.

    Methane leaks are estimated to be around two to 3% of total production though there is troubling uncertainty around the total. The biggest source of emissions is from new wells. Starting up a new gas well is like popping a Champagne bottle: it releases gas under pressure quickly and with force. Emissions can also leak out through the production process, if proper safeguards are not in place.

    Shale gas is not only expanding in the United States, it’s on the rise around the globe. Large natural gas reserves have been found in China, South Africa, Turkey, Poland, the United Kingdom and elsewhere. According to official Chinese estimates, the country may have 886 trillion cubic feet of shale gas or nearly three times the United States. Reaching the shale potential in China will take additional technology and consume huge water resources significant challenges to be overcome.

    Source – Bloomberg

    (www.coalguru.com)

    Tags: Shale | gas | is | not | a | low | emissions | fuel |

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  • Scientists find Antarctic ice is melting faster

    Scientists find Antarctic ice is melting faster

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    Ice melt shows through at a cliff face at Landsend on the coast of Cape Denison in Antarctica December 14, 2009. REUTERS/Pauline Askin

    CANBERRA | Mon Apr 15, 2013 2:44am EDT

    (Reuters) – The summer ice melt in parts of Antarctica is at its highest level in 1,000 years, Australian and British researchers reported on Monday, adding new evidence of the impact of global warming on sensitive Antarctic glaciers and ice shelves.

    Researchers from the Australian National University and the British Antarctic Survey found data taken from an ice core also shows the summer ice melt has been 10 times more intense over the past 50 years compared with 600 years ago.

    “It’s definitely evidence that the climate and the environment is changing in this part of Antarctica,” lead researcher Nerilie Abram said.

    Abram and her team drilled a 364-metre (400-yard) deep ice core on James Ross Island, near the northern tip of the Antarctic Peninsula, to measure historical temperatures and compare them with summer ice melt levels in the area.

    They found that, while the temperatures have gradually increased by 1.6 degrees Celsius (2.9 degrees Fahrenheit) over 600 years, the rate of ice melting has been most intense over the past 50 years.

    That shows the ice melt can increase dramatically in climate terms once temperatures hit a tipping point.

    “Once your climate is at that level where it is starting to go above zero degrees, the amount of melt that will happen is very sensitive to any further increase in temperature you may have,” Abram said.

    Robert Mulvaney, from the British Antarctic Survey, said the stronger ice melts are likely responsible for faster glacier ice loss and some of the dramatic collapses from the Antarctic ice shelf over the past 50 years.

    Their research was published in the Nature Geoscience journal.

    (Reporting by James Grubel; Editing by Paul Tait)
    Science
    Environment

  • Pictures of lame horse a PR disaster on the magic day Black Caviar came back to Sydney

    Pictures of lame horse a PR disaster on the magic day Black Caviar came back to Sydney

    Richard Zachariah
    The Daily Telegraph
    April 14, 2013 11:05PM

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    Hamish McLachlan has come under heavy criticism for riding a lame horse while interviewing Black Caviar’s jockey Luke Nolen at Randwick.

    Herald Sun14 April 2013
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    Jockey Luke Nolen marvels at Black Caviar’s unbeaten run after the mare won her 25th race at Randwick.












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    Hamish McLachlan

    Hamish McLachlan says that once his live cross from Randwick was out of the way, he dismounted immediately to tend Snowy. Source: Herald Sun

    Hamish McLachlan

    Unfortunate moment: Renowned horseman Hamish McLachlan on Snowy interviews Luke Nolen aboard Black Caviar. Source: Supplied

    CHANNEL 7 and Royal Randwick have been besieged with complaints that Saturday’s historic celebration of Black Caviar was ruined by alleged footage of animal cruelty.

    Viewers pointed to the peak audience moment when Seven’s mounted sports reporter Hamish McLachlan interviewed the great mare’s jockey Luke Nolen while riding a horse named Snowy that was lame.

    Saturday’s live race telecast of Black Caviar’s superb sequence of 25 consecutive wins was watched by 1.127 million on Seven in Sydney and the station’s allied digital channels in other states.

    Unfortunately for racing, rarely delivered a mass audience, McLachlan’s decision at 5.11pm to go ahead with the Nolen interview knowing his horse’s condition has become a PR disaster.

    It has caused social media to pillory the sport on perhaps its greatest day in 50 years and to accuse Channel 7 of a lapse in care of duty for not truncating the footage.

    Snowy

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    McLachlan, a fifth generation horseman from a famous Australian pastoral family, was contrite yesterday.

    “I knew I was in a no-win situation,” McLachlan said. “People will think the horse was lame all day when in reality it happened only just before I drew alongside Black Caviar.

    “People will want to hang me, I know that,” he added.

    In McLachlan’s words, 15 seconds before the elation of Black Caviar’s triumph he felt his horse Snowy stumble and begin to hobble.

    “It was unbelievable that it should happen right at that moment. Do I get on or off,” McLachlan said.

    “One minute he was right the next he was unsound, clearly lame at the walk, he must have stepped on a stone or in a hole while we cantered up to Black Caviar.

    “I was distressed, you can’t imagine, my thoughts were to get off but in my ear the director was screaming for me to get in a position alongside Luke. I thought I might do the interview standing but Luke said the mare wouldn’t co-operate, she wouldn’t stand still for a second immediately after racing.”

    McLachlan said his spur-of-the moment decision to continue with the Nolen interview was partly caused by the pressure he was under from his director, he was torn between doing his job or aborting it.

    McLachlan agreed his duty to his employer was uppermost in his mind, but with his live cross out of the way, he dismounted immediately to tend Snowy.

    Royal Randwick’s own Facebook page drew strong criticism with hundreds agreeing that to screen the interview rather than aborting it was a victory of “greed over animal welfare”.

    One Facebook user described the coverage as “Agony and Ecstasy – shame Seven shame”. Another promised “I will never watch racing again nor will I allow my children to watch it”.

    A sympathetic Bruce McAvaney, hosting the telecast, made brief mention of the unfortunate incident minutes after the interview and assured his audience Snowy was in the hands of the vets and his welfare was paramount.

    Channel 7 spokesman Greg Smith yesterday said all was well with the horse on loan from the Australian Turf Club’s clerk of course team now “happy and healthy in his stable at Warwick Farm”.

    Meanwhile, chief steward Ray Murrihy, whose job description means he is in charge of what happens on course and particularly horse welfare, said yesterday he was unaware of Snowy’s lameness.

    “I know Mick Stanley (clerk of course) would not send out any horse he knew was lame,” Murrihy said.

    “I know nothing about it, it seems a fanciful story.”

    HOOFNOTE: It’s amazing how a promoter’s dream on a day made in heaven can come crashing down around you.

    While Snowy will be forgotten and Black Caviar revered forever, Saturday’s ill-judged moment cannot be dismissed as bad luck.

    It was a basic error of judgment – and broke every rule of television. I was always taught you can never say anything near a microphone you don’t want the world to know.

    Similarly you can’t show pictures that you don’t want the world to see and will cause upset in the name of sport/entertainment.

    Television is so engaging you can’t hope that something like Snowy’s sore front legs will not be noticed by an animal-loving public.

    On a day when it should have been all good news, we are left with a muted feeling and a tainted taste.

    As a nation, we love Black Caviar, we love winners.

    But in the moment of a famous victory we cannot ignore an innocent bystander who steps on a stone or a hole in the wrong place at the wrong time.

  • Gillard faces fight with states as poll support dips

    Gillard faces fight with states as poll support dips

    ABCUpdated April 15, 2013, 8:52 am

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    Reform push: Julia Gillard is facing a struggle to get the states on side
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    Julia Gillard is facing a fight with Coalition-led states over her plan to overhaul school funding, as a new poll shows support for Federal Labor dipping below 30 per cent.

    At the weekend the Federal Government announced plans to increase school funding by $14.5 billion over six years, saying it wanted the states to chip in about a third of the money.

    The money flows from the so-called Gonski education reforms – a major part of Labor’s re-election strategy.

    But critics have lined up to , and several states are already baulking at the cost.

    New South Wales Premier Barry O’Farrell says his state will have difficulty coming up with a requested $1.7 billion.

    “The only thing certain at this stage is that we don’t have $1.7 billion lying around unused,” he said.

    “Further state spending cuts would be required if New South Wales were to sign up to the Gonski reforms.”

    Queensland Premier Campbell Newman says he does not have enough information to commit to the deal, while Victoria’s Education Minister Martin Dixon is demanding more details ahead of Friday’s COAG meeting.

    “They haven’t actually negotiated with the state of Victoria, so there’s a lot of work to do between now and Friday,” Mr Dixon said.

    Ms Gillard is hoping state and territory leaders will sign up to the plan when they meet at COAG, but has

    This morning she told Channel Nine the funding overhaul was aimed at promoting equity across schools.

    “It’s not about the fight … it’s about the outcome in schools,” she said.

    The Australian Council of State School Organisations is urging the states and territories to get on board.

    “I can’t understand why any state or territory is reluctant to sign up,” president Peter Garrigan said.

    “I think we need to get out of the political game. I know politics have been played on all sides of the spectrum, but what we’re talking about here is a positive outcome for all young Australians.

    “It’s imperative that as a nation we support the education of our young.”

    School Education Minister Peter Garrett stands by the decision to make cuts to university funding to provide some of the extra money for schools.

    “I’m confident that universities can find scope in their significant budgets for the efficiencies that we’ve asked, which only go for two years,” he said.

    Nielsen poll dip

    Today’s Nielsen poll, published in Fairfax papers, shows support for Labor slipping below 30 per cent for the first time in 10 months.

    The poll puts Labor’s primary vote down two points at 29 per cent, while support for the Coalition has risen two points to 49 per cent.

    On a two party-preferred basis, the Coalition is ahead on 57 per cent, while Labor sits at 43 per cent.

    Opposition Leader Tony Abbott leads Ms Gillard in the preferred prime minister stakes 50 per cent to 42 per cent.

    It is the first time Labor’s primary vote has slipped below 30 per cent since June 2012, before the carbon tax was introduced.

    The poll follows a big week for Ms Gillard, who has also announced a strategic partnership deal with China and an overhaul of Australia’s superannuation system.
    Fifty-two per cent of those polled opposed the superannuation changes, despite the Government saying they would only affect about 16,000 of Australia’s top earners.

  • Peak Oil As Seen Through The Eyes Of Arab Oil Producers

    Peak Oil As Seen Through The Eyes Of Arab Oil Producers

    By Robert Hirsch

    13 April, 2013
    Fabius Maximus

    Reflections by the author of the “Hirsch Report” on the Conference “Peak Oil: Challenges and Opportunities for the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) Countries.”

    I was fortunate to be among the few westerners invited to attend and speak at this first-of-its kind “peak oil” (PO) conference in a Middle East. The fact that a major Middle East oil exporter would hold such a conference on what has long been a verboten subject was quite remarkable and a dramatic change from decades of PO denial. The two and a half day meeting was well attended by people from the GCC as well as other regional countries.

    The going-in assumption was that “peak oil” will occur in the near future. The timing of the impending onset of world oil decline was not an issue at the conference, rather the main focus was what the GCC countries should do soon to ensure a prosperous, long-term future. To many of us who have long suffered the vociferous denial of PO by Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) and OPEC countries, this conference represented a major change. In the words of Kjell Aleklett (Professor of Physics at Uppsala University, Sweden), who summarized highlights of the conference, the meeting was “an historic event.”

    While many PO aficionados have been focused on the impacts and the mitigation of “peak oil” in the importing countries, most attendees at this conference were concerned with the impact that finite oil and gas reserves will have on the long-term future of their own exporting countries. They see the depletion of their large-but-limited reserves as affording their countries a period of time in which they either develop their countries into sustainable entities able to continue into the long term future or they lapse back into the poor, nomadic circumstances that existed prior to the discovery of oil/gas. Accordingly, much of the conference focus was on how the GCC countries might use their current and near-term largesse to build sustainable economic and government futures.

    A flavor of the conference can be gotten from the following loosely translated, random quotations:

    About the Conference:

    >>This is a groundbreaking conference.

    >> The organizers were brave to organize this conference.

    Peak Oil:

    >> Peak oil provides an incentive to consider important national and regional issues. The GCC is currently working new problems with old solutions.

    >> Oil revenue represents about 93% of the Saudi budget. Everything is now imported — foreign expertise and most labor. Saudi can’t continue on the current track, because it would lead to a “bad future.” We need radical change.

    >> After peak oil, will there be great cities, or will Middle East cities end up like the gold mining ghost towns of the old U.S. west?

    >> So far we have wasted our opportunity.

    >> Shale oil in the U.S. is so much foolishness and does not invalidate peak oil. We definitely must worry about peak oil.

    The Gulf States:

    >> Political reforms have failed to properly address our lack of democracy and accountability.

    >> When people are excluded from politics, they get unruly.

    >> Citizens in the Middle East prefer public sector jobs because they pay better than private sector jobs.

    >> Foreigners are the majority of our populations, typically 80%.

    >> Schools are teaching children “old stuff.” Schools are a disaster.

    >> The current culture is one of waste.

    >> There are job vacancies in Saudi but local people are not prepared to fill them. Saudi’s go abroad to get advanced degrees but don’t qualify for Saudi jobs, so Saudi must import foreign labor. Aramco did a good job of training Saudi nationals.

    >> The GCC must educate women and give them greater rights and equality.

    >> In many countries absolute rulers get the incomes and revenues and not much is left for the people. A selfish dictator does not develop his country.

    >> The Arab legal system is in bad shape and needs attention.

    >> People read religious literature when they should be reading technical literature.

    >> The region has wealthy, wealthy persons and poor, poor people.

    >> Rulers must understand that the people must be part of the future.

    >> Future generations must have rights.

    About the world and peak oil:

    >> Globalization is being broadly viewed more negatively now. When peak oil comes, it will be extremely difficult to maintain.

    >> High oil prices will impact the world even before the onset of peak oil.

    >> Peak oil is the most important question in this part of the world.

    Robert Hirsch ran the US Fusion Program during the 1970′s, and went from there to become one of America’s top energy experts. He was the lead author of one of the major papers about 21st century energy: “Peaking of World Production: Impacts, Mitigation, and Risk Management“ (aka “Mitigations”), commissioned by the Dept of Energy, published February 2005. Co-authors are the economists Roger Bezdek and Robert Wendling. They also wrote The Impending World Energy Mess: What It Is and What It Means to You (2010). See Wikipedia for a list of his positions and publications. He has over 50 publications, plus 14 patents — including Farnsworth–Hirsch fusor (see Wikipedia)