Category: Uncategorized

  • Climate ETC Judith Curry

    Climate Etc. donotreply@wordpress.com
    3:18 AM (4 hours ago)

    to me
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    New post on Climate Etc.

    Authority(?) in political debates involving science

    by curryja

    by Judith Curry In political debates that involve considerations of science, it is tempting to characterize scientists who demand particular types of action simply as political partisans. But when scientists make demands of the political process there is often more going on than just an effort to achieve political gain for one’s preferred policies.

    Read more of this post

    curryja | April 3, 2012 at 1:18 pm | Categories: Communication, Policy, Politics, Uncategorized | URL: http://wp.me/p12Elz-23X

     

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  • Political power role in NBN rollout rejected

    Someone is not telling the truth

    Political power role in NBN rollout rejected

    0

    THE company charged with rolling out the NBN has insisted the regions not covered by the $36 billion project were overlooked for engineering reasons – not political ones.

    While NBN Co boss Mike Quigley yesterday conceded his company had received “some instructions and directives” from the government, he denied they were political.

    “(The government’s instructions were) to get a good balance between regional and metro Australia, to get a balance across the states and to make sure we finish Tasmania by 2015,” Mr Quigley said.

    The initial rollout of the NBN will cover 3.5 million homes and businesses in 1500 towns and suburbs across Australia by June 2015. That figure includes 71 Labor seats, 61 coalition electorates and all six crossbench seats.

    The comments come after the government was yesterday accused of pork barrelling, after a Daily Telegraph analysis of the newly unveiled three-year rollout revealed coalition seats were being ignored.

    In the Sydney region, 64.7 per cent of rollout sites were located in federal ALP seats – compared with only 35.3 per cent of LNP seats.

    Pressure has mounted on the embattled company to explain why key targets were altered. The company had originally said it would pass 4.2 million homes by June 2015, before downgrading that target on Thursday to 3.5 million.

    Fat Prophets senior telco analyst Greg Fraser said the government and NBN Co had to explain the discrepancy.

    “When they first rolled out, they said the network would pass 4.2 million premises and connect to 2.6 million by June 2015 – that’s been reduced to 3.5 million under way or completed and there’s no explanation why,” Mr Fraser said.

    “There needs to be some targets for the number of homes that will sign up.”

    NBN Co last night declined to comment.

  • Antony Green’s Election Calculator

    This is Antony Green’s projected outcome based on a swing of 10.6 %.

    We should know tonight how close this projection is. A larger swing may take place.

    Antony Green’s Election Calculator

    div#election-calculator { overflow: hidden; margin: 2em 0pt; font-family: Verdana,Arial,sans-serif; font-size: 8pt; line-height: 1.15; color: rgb(20, 47, 87); background: url(“http://www.abc.net.au/elections/qld/2012/calculator/img/bg.png”) repeat-x scroll 0pt 0pt rgb(229, 236, 246); }div#election-calculator h2 { margin: 0pt -10px 1em ! important; background-color: rgb(208, 222, 238) ! important; padding: 0.3em 5px ! important; text-align: center ! important; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: bold; }div#election-calculator input { vertical-align: text-bottom; }div#election-calculator select { vertical-align: baseline; }div#election-calculator-columns { overflow: hidden; padding-bottom: 10px; }div#election-calculator-seatbyseat { overflow: hidden; background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(229, 236, 246); }div#election-calculator-seatbyseat .electorates { overflow: hidden; padding-bottom: 1.5em; }div#election-calculator-seatbyseat .electorates p { text-align: center; }div#election-calculator-column1 { width: 340px; 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position: relative; height: 45px; }div#election-calculator-outcome-output-chart .party:hover { cursor: help; }div#election-calculator-outcome-output-chart p { margin: 0pt; }div#election-calculator-outcome-output-chart .bar { height: 25px; width: 0px; background-color: rgb(204, 204, 204); font-size: 8pt; -moz-box-shadow: 1px 1px 2px rgb(174, 189, 210); z-index: 100; color: white; position: absolute; }div#election-calculator-outcome-output-chart .text { position: absolute; height: 22px; line-height: 22px; }div#election-calculator-outcome-output-chart .value { font-weight: bold; font-size: 15px; }div#election-calculator-outcome-output-chart .change { color: rgb(100, 118, 145); font-size: 7pt; margin-left: 0.25em; }div#election-calculator-outcome-output-alp-bar { background: -moz-linear-gradient(left center , rgb(231, 22, 22) 0%, rgb(173, 16, 16) 100%) repeat scroll 0% 0% transparent; }div#election-calculator-outcome-output-lnp-bar { height: 20px; line-height: 20px; background: -moz-linear-gradient(left center , rgb(22, 111, 231) 0%, rgb(17, 86, 180) 100%) repeat scroll 0% 0% transparent; 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}.ui-slider .ui-slider-range { position: absolute; z-index: 1; font-size: 0.7em; display: block; border: 0pt none; background-position: 0pt 0pt; }.ui-slider-horizontal { height: 0.8em; }.ui-slider-horizontal .ui-slider-handle { top: -0.3em; margin-left: -0.6em; }.ui-slider-horizontal .ui-slider-range { top: 0pt; height: 100%; }.ui-slider-horizontal .ui-slider-range-min { left: 0pt; }.ui-slider-horizontal .ui-slider-range-max { right: 0pt; }.ui-slider-vertical { width: 0.8em; height: 100px; }.ui-slider-vertical .ui-slider-handle { left: -0.3em; margin-left: 0pt; margin-bottom: -0.6em; }.ui-slider-vertical .ui-slider-range { left: 0pt; width: 100%; }.ui-slider-vertical .ui-slider-range-min { bottom: 0pt; }.ui-slider-vertical .ui-slider-range-max { top: 0pt; }.ui-slider-horizontal .ui-slider-handle { width: 13px; height: 28px; top: 20px; margin-left: -6px; background: url(“http://www.abc.net.au/elections/qld/2012/calculator/img/slider-handle.png”) repeat scroll 0% 0% transparent; }.ui-slider-horizontal .ui-slider-handle:focus { outline: medium none; }

    Adjust swing

    %
    Swing
    %
    2PP
    Overall swing 10.6 60.0

    If you shift the slider in the red direction (to the left), you are building a swing to Labor. If you move the slider in the blue direction (to the right) you are entering a swing to the LNP. Learn more »

    Predicted outcome

    LNP wins election

    Labor seats won

    14 (-37)

    LNP seats won

    68 (+37)

    Other seats won

    7

    Seat-by-seat prediction

    Labor Party

    Sunnybank ALP 0.2%
    Lytton ALP 1.6%
    Sandgate ALP 1.8%
    Logan ALP 3.3%
    Nudgee ALP 3.7%
    Waterford ALP 5.9%
    Ipswich ALP 6.1%
    Mackay ALP 6.1%
    Rockhampton ALP 7.3%
    Bundamba ALP 10.6%
    Inala ALP 10.9%
    Woodridge ALP 14.8%

    LNP

    Capalaba Gained LNP 0.9%
    Ipswich West Gained LNP 1.1%
    Stretton Gained LNP 1.1%
    Algester Gained LNP 1.4%
    Morayfield Gained LNP 1.5%
    Yeerongpilly Gained LNP 1.9%
    Thuringowa Gained LNP 2.1%
    Mulgrave Gained LNP 2.5%
    Bulimba Gained LNP 2.8%
    Keppel Gained LNP 3.0%
    Stafford Gained LNP 3.3%
    Ashgrove Gained LNP 3.5%
    Greenslopes Gained LNP 3.7%
    Mundingburra Gained LNP 4.0%
    Albert Gained LNP 4.1%
    Brisbane Central Gained LNP 4.6%
    Redcliffe Gained LNP 5.0%
    Murrumba Gained LNP 5.2%
    Mount Coot-tha Gained LNP 5.4%
    Pumicestone Gained LNP 5.6%
    Burleigh Gained LNP 5.7%
    Mount Ommaney Gained LNP 5.8%
    Kallangur Gained LNP 6.0%
    Pine Rivers Gained LNP 6.0%
    Ferny Grove Gained LNP 6.1%
    Mansfield Gained LNP 6.2%
    Cairns Gained LNP 6.4%
    Springwood Gained LNP 6.5%
    Townsville Gained LNP 6.6%
    Southport Gained LNP 7.1%
    Whitsunday Gained LNP 7.4%
    Toowoomba North Gained LNP 7.4%
    Barron River Gained LNP 8.3%
    Cook Gained LNP 8.4%
    Broadwater Gained LNP 8.6%
    Everton Gained LNP 9.2%
    Chatsworth Gained LNP 10.5%
    Redlands LNP 10.7%
    Cleveland LNP 10.9%
    Mirani LNP 11.2%
    Gaven LNP 11.3%
    Coomera LNP 12.5%
    Burdekin LNP 13.7%
    Mudgeeraba LNP 14.5%
    Aspley LNP 15.1%
    Glass House LNP 16.4%
    Clayfield LNP 16.4%
    Indooroopilly LNP 16.5%
    Bundaberg LNP 16.6%
    Caloundra LNP 16.8%
    Hervey Bay LNP 17.1%
    Currumbin LNP 17.5%
    Kawana LNP 17.5%
    Lockyer LNP 18.2%
    Toowoomba South LNP 18.8%
    Mermaid Beach LNP 21.4%
    Moggill LNP 21.9%
    Maroochydore LNP 23.4%
    Gregory LNP 24.9%
    Buderim LNP 24.9%
    Hinchinbrook LNP 25.3%
    Callide LNP 30.0%
    Noosa LNP 30.4%
    Condamine LNP 31.1%
    Southern Downs LNP 31.7%
    Warrego LNP 34.9%
    Gympie LNP 37.8%

    Katter’s Australia Party

    Independent

    Burnett IND
    Nanango IND
    Nicklin IND
  • Time to bring out the big guns, Barry O;Farrell

    Time to bring out the big guns, Barry O’Farrell

    0
    Barry O'Farrell

    Plagued by indecision … Premier Barry O’Farrell / Pic: Brad Hunter Source: The Daily Telegraph

    IF something needs to be done in Barry O’Farrell’s NSW, be prepared to wait for an inquiry.

    Our 43rd premier is set to celebrate a year in office on Monday, but so many of his policy decisions have been subject to inquiries or reviews (at least 30 major inquiries and counting) that it’s got some in government wondering whether the Premier can make a decision without one.

    And the big remaining decision on whether the government builds the M4 East or M5 duplication requires, no surprise, an inquiry, too. That comes down in August or September – when the Infrastructure NSW team presents the Premier with a five-year plan and 20-year strategy.

    The Premier’s insistence on waiting on that, as he has waited on inquiries over so many big decisions, has got people joking that if Infrastructure NSW were to come up with the unlikely scenario that the F6 was the next road to be built, the Premier would just go with it.

    Even more confusingly, the infrastructure plan will merge with the government’s Transport Masterplan due out in November.

    Speaking in an interview to mark his first year in office, O’Farrell basically says he’ll do whatever Infrastructure NSW tells him to. It’s a fascinating insight. The man with the largest parliamentary majority in Australian history has taken all the power he has earned in a thumping election mandate and given it to others to make the decisions.

    Asked if he was likely to adopt the Infrastructure NSW recommendations, the Premier says: “Not having seen the recommendations, absolutely.”

    I put to him that perhaps he might want to overrule Infrastructure NSW. They, after all, are expected to recommend proceeding with the cheaper M5 duplication before the M4 East and he says: “Their report is made public and any variation from us has to be made public and presumably attract whatever political odium there is.

    “Infrastructure NSW was specifically … about ensuring politicians didn’t put … scarce and critical infrastructure dollars into policies which suited them, and not the public.”

    So is he saying he can’t be trusted as a politician to deliver the right outcome? “What I’ve said before the election was every government comes to power with a focus on the public interest, but the longer they stay in office, the more the politics takes over.”

    And that would include you? “Absolutely.”

    O’Farrell commissioned, as much as agreed to, a series of one-year anniversary interviews this week. His suspended communications director Peter Grimshaw contacted The Daily Telegraph, a day before his own scandal broke, suggesting the interview.

    Things went pretty pear-shaped for Grimshaw after that. Leaked texts and emails from The Star casino work phone of his girlfriend, a former human resources manager at the casino, showed Grimshaw had enough spare time in the Premier’s office to conduct a vendetta against his ex-employer, The Star.

    While many in government suggest Grimshaw should be permanently shown the door, his future rests on – you guessed it – an inquiry. Actually, three. One from the Director-General of Premier and Cabinet, one from the Liquor and Gaming Authority and one from ICAC.

    Asked if Grimshaw will come back into his office, O’Farrell says: “That goes to how the various reports and reviews come out.”

    He defends his handling of the issue by saying whatever Grimshaw’s views were they did not get the casino’s licence removed in a review by Gail Furness SC.

    Considering the vendetta Grimshaw had against the casino for demoting him, is O’Farrell concerned the man known as “Grimmo” might “dish the dirt” on O’Farrell if he sacked him? “Good luck, my life is an open book, so the answer is no,” O’Farrell says.

    Longevity

    It’s the standard question to a premier about how long Barry might want to stay in the job that elicits the most surprise from me. Before this interview, I had thought O’Farrell, who loves political history, would be all about staying in government – maybe even for three terms – to beat Bob Carr and Neville Wran’s records of 10 years in the job. But the Premier gives every indication he could pull the pin after six years.

    “Well, we have an election in three years and one week’s time, all things being equal I expect to contest that election and presumably in that term I’ll then consider at some stage what happens in the next election,” he says.

    “I’m not in the business of setting records, I’ll leave that to the Bob Carrs of this world. Nor do I want to be foreign minister, I hasten to add.”

    When it comes to backing a successor, it’s his favourite, Transport Minister Gladys Berejiklian, who gets the frontrunning when most pundits think the clear and obvious choice is Treasurer Mike Baird.

    This seems yet another snub to Baird, born of Barry having worked as chief of staff to Baird’s father Bruce during the Greiner years. Barry started his term by taking half of Mike’s job off him and giving it to Finance Minister Greg Pearce, as well as putting Baird number 11 on the cabinet list.

    “I think I’ve got a cabinet full of successors,” he says.

    “There’s Gladys, there’s Mike, there’s Pru (Goward), there’s Greg (Smith) … there is no shortage of talent in the team and that’s a good thing.”

    He says he didn’t mention Mike first because: “I’m an old-fashioned gentleman – I still open doors for women and still let women go through doors first.

    “The good news is, in our party it’s ultimately not the leader who gets to choose who’s the leader – it’s the party room.”

    And O’Farrell adds for good measure, the moment a leader goes all their power dissolves.

    Poll driven

    A former Liberal Party state director, O’Farrell views politics often through poll results. And they have been unquestionably good. But after 16 years of Labor scandal and inaction, and an opposition leader who seems more a caretaker than a serious contender in John Robertson, that hardly seems surprising.

    If there’s one time you could argue you don’t have to worry about polls so much, it would appear to be now.

    But it is the recent poll results which still show the Coalition ahead 64-36 which O’Farrell points to when he says appointing Nick Greiner as Infrastructure NSW boss was not a mistake.

    In some respects, Greiner was a more effective opposition leader than Robertson last year.

    The former Liberal premier caused O’Farrell much grief, urging him to abandon his caution and sell the $10-15 billion electricity poles and wires to pay for infrastructure – something O’Farrell failed to do because the Tamberlin inquiry he commissioned sat on the fence.

    “I don’t think he created any political damage; that’s evidenced last week by (the) Newspoll,” O’Farrell says.

    The business community has hoped until now that O’Farrell will change his mind and promise to sell off the asset at the 2015 election but there is none of that.

    “I haven’t even thought about the next election, I’m too busy,” O’Farrell says.

    Equally this week when The Daily Telegraph flagged a plan by Roads Minister Duncan Gay to charge tolls on the existing motorways to pay for the M4 East and M5 duplication, the Premier’s office encouraged Gay to step back from his comments.

    The minister said in reaction to the story that any such changes would have to be taken to the 2015 election.

    The Premier points to achievements with the planning work on the North West Rail Link, South West Rail Link, setting up the Public Service Commission, Infrastructure NSW, donations reform, disability reform, the planning review, and devolution of schools as highlights of his first year.

    And his biggest mistake? An attempt to retrospectively cut the solar bonus from 60c per kilowatt hour to 40c, a decision he overturned.

    One area where O’Farrell didn’t show his trademark caution was backing James Packer immediately over a plan to take over Grimshaw’s former employer The Star and set up a second casino.

    The Premier explains: “On the less than handful of occasions I’ve seen James Packer in the past … he never made any secret of the fact that he’d like to extend his gaming operations into Sydney.

    “Any premier who refuses to entertain or meet with people who suggest they are going to invest somewhere between $750 million and $1 billion dollars in the state shouldn’t be in the job.”

    He predicts a tough budget in June but fails to promise more than the current public service job cuts target of 5000 over four years.

    He says he has made real progress in western Sydney, in terms of upgrading local roads and other initiatives, but concedes there is more to do.

    “We were never going to, and we never pretended we could, fix in one year or overnight what it had taken 16 years to bugger up in the state,” he concedes.

    And then I try just one more time – which would he personally prefer; the M4 East or M5 duplication?

    “I prefer to do what we said we’d do in opposition, which was to ask Infrastructure NSW for a 20-year infrastructure strategy based on what’s best for the state.”

    And with that statement the cautious leader, with the political opportunity of a lifetime, cedes the power again to someone else’s hands.

     

    5 comments on this story

  • Sea rise maps

    geology

    Global Sea Level Rise Map

    The map below can be used to show which areas would be under water if sea level rises a specific amount. You can select a value of sea level rise using the drop down box in the upper left corner of the map. Although this map is not a carefully surveyed and extremely accurate presentation, it does provide a visually striking view of what geographic areas might be flooded if global climate change continues unabated.

    Note: Some inland depressions, such as the Caspian Sea, show inundation on the map but would not be flooded. This is because the mapping algorithm is based upon elevation and can not distinguish areas that are separated from the oceans by a ridge or other high area. Be sure that you trace a connection with the ocean before assuming the area would be flooded.

    This sea level rise map was created by Alex Tingle of firetree.net using the Google Maps API, NASA data and lots of programming savvy. He explains how the map was created, the sea level data and issues about map accuracy here. We thank Alex for allowing us to share this map on Geology.com. Also thanks to Google and NASA for providing the resources needed to make this map.

    © 2005-2012 Geology.com. All Rights Reserved.
    Images, code and content of this website are property of Geology.com. Use without permission is prohibited. Pages on this site are protected by Copyscape.
  • Millions of Americans at risk of flooding as sea levels rise

    New study lowers estimate of ancient sea-level rise

    Posted: 14 Mar 2012 11:28 AM PDT

    Millions of Americans at risk of flooding as sea levels rise

    Posted: 14 Mar 2012 08:17 AM PDT

    Nearly four million Americans, occupying a combined area larger than the state of Maryland, find themselves at risk of severe flooding as sea levels rise in the coming century, new research suggests. Researchers say that with so many communities concentrated on US coasts, the odds for major storm damage get bigger every year.
    You are subscribed to email updates from ScienceDaily: Oceanography News
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