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  • Climate change is a problem for democracy. The scientific modelling is compelling and the evidence alarming. The problems begin when the science crosses into the democratic sphere of politics and public…

    Climate change is a problem for democracy. The scientific modelling is compelling and the evidence alarming. The problems begin when the science crosses into the democratic sphere of politics and public…

    By declaring climate change a ‘great moral challenge’, Kevin Rudd owned the issue. That set him up for a political fall when the Coalition and Greens blocked his path. EPA/Matthew Cavanaugh

    Climate change is a problem for democracy. The scientific modelling is compelling and the evidence alarming. The problems begin when the science crosses into the democratic sphere of politics and public policy.

    The scientists do not simply want a response. They want a disruption, a critical juncture, a new narrative challenging the status quo. This requires new institutions that create a new normal path to low emissions.

    To forge new institutions requires a good understanding of democracy itself and the successful management of three democratic decision points. The first is the exogenous event (climate change) and the accompanying narrative that influences the choices made and paths taken.

    Second is the critical juncture when an emergent institution supported by democratic practices such as participation may or may not get established. Third is the success of the new institution as the path becomes normal and is sustained by providing increasing, not decreasing, returns to supporters.

    In democracy, small contingent decisions can have large and long-term consequences. Whitlam Institute research shows scientists, economists and environmentalists have failed to manage four critical junctures in the last six years.

    The first failure

    The failure at critical juncture #1 – then-opposition leader Kevin Rudd declares “climate change is the greatest moral challenge of our generation” – can be laid squarely at the feet of Rudd and scientists. At this juncture, those advocating a response to climate change needed to manage the narrative arising out of the science.

    Rudd recognised that waiting for the future might mean there was no future. Rudd became prime minister in November 2007 and immediately set up a new Department of Climate Change.

    The problem was the narrative. In “owning” the issue as he did, and in calling it the greatest moral challenge, Rudd accepted the scientists’ call for a disruption, a critical juncture, in a way that his opponents did not. But that small decision, to use “morality” not “science”, had long-term consequences in distorting the climate change narrative in Australia.

    Scientists proved to be unreliable managers of this narrative. Science alone is not enough to sway democratic decision making, but scientists fractured support by conflating weather with climate modelling.

    To show that climate change causes extreme weather it would be necessary to prove that greenhouse gases create events that are not caused by observed weather patterns such as La Niña or El Niño.

    The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) states there is “low confidence” in attributing any changes in tropical cyclone activity to greenhouse gas emissions or anything else humanity has done.

    Unfortunately, Australia’s most prominent climate scientists have fallen into the trap of suggesting global warming is causing extreme weather events. The issue here is whether it is wise for scientists to embrace a narrative that they know is not substantiated by the science for the purpose of building public support.

    The second failure

    The failure at critical juncture #2 – Rudd abandons climate change – can be laid squarely at the feet of Rudd and the economists. At this juncture, those advocating a response to climate change faced the problem of choosing the path to the new institution, establishing that as the status quo path and justifying paths not taken.

    The path chosen was the Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme. This was twice rejected in parliament. As a consequence, Rudd effectively shelved climate change policy, releasing sceptics and deniers nourished by the lack of participation and the abandonment of morality.

    Labor enlisted experts like Ross Garnaut but failed to engage the public. AAP/Alan Porritt

    In Australia, economist Ross Garnaut was adviser to two Labor prime ministers. His neoclassical approach considered human-induced emissions of greenhouse gases are an externality, emitted into the atmosphere by individuals and firms without cost.

    However, a wide range of victims will bear the resulting damages from climate change across time and space. A price on carbon through an emissions trading scheme aims to correct this market failure by making the value of social damages internal to the polluter’s decisions.

    Garnaut and the economists adopted an inflexible, “rational” approach insisting that carbon pricing was the one best way to reduce emissions. Consequently, many policy options were ignored, many paths not taken, many trade-offs rejected.

    It is not wise to try to build new institutions by being unwilling to listen to other views. Institutions, after all, solve collective problems and are by definition inclusive and participatory mechanisms.

    The third failure

    The failure of critical juncture #3 – prime minister Julia Gillard establishes the Multi-Party Climate Change Committee (MPCCC) – can be laid squarely at the feet of Gillard and the environmentalists. At this juncture, those advocating a response to climate change faced the problem of using democratic means such as participation to get the new institution established.

    After the 2010 election, Gillard signed an agreement with the Greens to put a price on carbon. A small decision later, to narrow formal membership of what became known as the MPCCC to cross-parliamentary party participation, had long-term consequences for Gillard, the Greens and the environmental movement.

    In accepting a narrow form of participation in the MPCC, the Greens severed its connection with the broader environmental movement.

    Having overwhelmed ALP attempts to manage a climate change narrative, Tony Abbott also faces a high risk of failure as his government seeks to institutionalise its non-pricing ‘Direct Action’ policy. AAP/Julian Smith

    A fourth failure?

    We now find ourselves at critical juncture #4 – carbon-pricing legislation passes parliament, and is repealed? The fixed-price mechanism for carbon was legislated in July 2012 but in 2013 Tony Abbott became prime minister, promising that his first act would be to repeal this legislation.

    Failure at these critical junctures tells us that what has happened before will influence the Coalition’s “Direct Action” policy, as the government attempts to form a new critical juncture and institutionalise a non-price approach to emissions reduction. Path dependence suggests “Direct Action” will fail.

    Scientists, economists and environmentalists need to learn how democracy works. That means learning to collaborate, explain, negotiate, teach and learn in the community if this (last) chance to save the planet is to work.

  • Senate – Western Australia

     

    Senate – Western Australia

    Background

    For background on the parties and candidates contesting the election, the likely prospects as well as an analysis of the preference flows, read this blog post published on 18 March after the release of preference tickets.

    The re-election has come about because of the closeness of the result last September and because the missing ballot papers made it impossible to establish a result. For background on the legal case that brought on the by-election, read this blog post by Constitutional Law Professor Anne Twomey.

    After the Court made its decision, I published this blog post on what was to happen next.

    I also published a post that explained the remarkable path to victory of Wayne Dropulich after having polled just 0.23% of the vote.

    I also published a post explaining that using the initial tallies of the 1,370 missing votes indicated that a single vote could have determined the final two Senators elected from Western Australia.

    Previously I published a detailed explanation of the first distribution of preferences that delivered the final two seats to Labor and Palmer United Party.

    Past Results

    Election Percentage of Vote Senators Elected
    (Vacancies) ALP LIB NAT DEM GRN OTH ALP LIB DEM GRN OTH
    1977 (5) 32.8 46.4 6.1 12.5 .. 2.2 2 3 .. .. ..
    1980 (5) 38.8 45.0 4.1 9.3 .. 2.8 2 3 .. .. ..
    1983 (10) 49.4 41.2 1.1 6.8 .. 1.5 5 4 1 .. ..
    1984 (7) 43.3 40.7 1.8 4.8 .. 9.4 3 3 .. .. 1
    1987 (12) 42.8 39.1 5.5 5.7 .. 6.9 5 5 1 .. 1
    1990 (6) 33.5 43.3 3.0 9.4 8.4 2.4 2 3 .. 1 ..
    1993 (6) 38.3 48.4 1.7 4.1 5.5 2.0 2 3 .. 1 ..
    1996 (6) 34.0 45.4 2.1 9.4 5.7 3.4 2 3 1 .. ..
    1998 (6) 34.7 38.4 1.3 6.4 5.7 13.5 2 3 1 .. ..
    2001 (6) 34.2 40.1 2.4 5.9 5.9 8.5 2 3 1 .. ..
    2004 (6) 32.5 49.3 0.9 2.0 8.1 7.2 2 3 .. 1 ..
    2007 (6) 36.0 46.2 1.4 1.1 9.3 6.0 2 3 .. 1 ..
    2010 (6) 29.7 43.0 3.4 0.4 14.0 9.5 2 3 .. 1 ..
    2013a (6) 26.6 39.2 5.1 0.3 9.5 19.3 2 3 .. .. 1
    2013b (6) 26.6 39.2 5.1 0.9 9.5 19.3 1 3 .. 1 1

    Notes: In 1984, Jo Valentine was elected for the Nuclear Disarmament Party, who polled 6.8%. In 1987 she was elected for the the Vallentine Peace Group which polled 4.8%. She was elected again in 1990 by which time her party had morphed into the WA Greens. One Nation polled 10.4% in 1998 and 7.0% in 2001.<br/><br/>The two entries for 2013 represent the two counts at the election overturned by the Court of Disputed Returns. Palmer United Party polled 5.0% and elected a senator on the first count. On the re-count that excluded the missing ballot papers, Labor lost a seat and the seat initially won by Palmer went to the Australian Sports Party, its candidate Wayne Dropulich elected from 0.23% of the vote.

    2014 Ballot Paper (77 Candidates)
    Candidate Name Party
    A The Wikileaks Party
    MESZAROS, Tibor The Wikileaks Party
    NICOL, Lucy The Wikileaks Party
    B The Nationals
    VAN STYN, Shane The Nationals
    DE GRUSSA, Colin Stephen The Nationals
    C Group C
    WOOLF, Russell
    JAMES, Verity
    D Australian Democrats
    FERNANDEZ, Chris Australian Democrats
    THIEL, William Australian Democrats
    E Pirate Party
    BOYD, Fletcher Pirate Party
    ALLEN, Michelle Pirate Party
    F Australian Labor Party
    BULLOCK, Joe Australian Labor Party
    PRATT, Louise Australian Labor Party
    HILL, Shane Australian Labor Party
    ANDRIC, Klara Australian Labor Party
    G Australian Motoring Enthusiast Party
    HOWLETT, Richie Australian Motoring Enthusiast Party
    ZANDVLIET, Rob Australian Motoring Enthusiast Party
    H Freedom and Prosperity Party
    KOUTALIANOS, Bill Freedom and Prosperity Party
    ASHBY, Leon Freedom and Prosperity Party
    I Voluntary Euthanasia Party
    NITSCHKE, Philip Voluntary Euthanasia Party
    DUFFIELD, Jim Voluntary Euthanasia Party
    J Liberal Democrats
    FRYAR, Jim Liberal Democrats
    HAMILTON, Neil Liberal Democrats
    K Australian Voice Party
    PARKES, Brian W Australian Voice Party
    BUTLER, Sean Australian Voice Party
    L Building Australia Party
    BEZANT, Ken Building Australia Party
    SMEE, Daniel Ross Building Australia Party
    M Mutual Party
    FELS, Anthony James Mutual Party
    CHANDRA, Felly Mutual Party
    N Family First Party
    ROSE, Linda Family First Party
    HENG, Henry Family First Party
    O #Sustainable Population Party
    STRACHAN, Peter #Sustainable Population Party
    BOURKE, William #Sustainable Population Party
    P Palmer United Party
    WANG, Zhenya Palmer United Party
    HEADLAND, Desmond John Palmer United Party
    TERBLANCHE, Chamonix Palmer United Party
    Q Australian Sports Party
    DROPULICH, Wayne Australian Sports Party
    LACKOVIC, Al Australian Sports Party
    R Liberal
    JOHNSTON, David Liberal
    CASH, Michaelia Liberal
    REYNOLDS, Linda Liberal
    BROCKMAN, Slade Liberal
    S Shooters and Fishers
    BOW, Murray Shooters and Fishers
    PARKES, John Shooters and Fishers
    T Help End Marijuana Prohibition (HEMP) Party
    MOYLAN, James M Help End Marijuana Prohibition (HEMP) Party
    MOYLAN, Tayla Help End Marijuana Prohibition (HEMP) Party
    U Republican Party of Australia
    ANDERSON, Marcus Republican Party of Australia
    HOLLICK, Rohan Republican Party of Australia
    V Smokers Rights
    KATZ-BARBER, Max Smokers Rights
    DI RADO, Daniel Jay Smokers Rights
    W Australian Fishing and Lifestyle Party
    McCARTHY, Daniel Australian Fishing and Lifestyle Party
    WYATT, Suzzanne Australian Fishing and Lifestyle Party
    X Australian Christians
    MORAN, Ray Australian Christians
    MOSELEY, Justin Australian Christians
    Y Secular Party of Australia
    CUTHBERT, Simon Andrew Secular Party of Australia
    THOMPSON, Andrew Secular Party of Australia
    Z Rise Up Australia Party
    FOREMAN, Jane Elizabeth Rise Up Australia Party
    BENNETT, Joanne Rise Up Australia Party
    AA The Greens (WA)
    LUDLAM, Scott The Greens (WA)
    CUNNINGHAM, Christine The Greens (WA)
    JAMES, Ian The Greens (WA)
    STEELE-JOHN, Jordon The Greens (WA)
    NIELSEN-HARVEY, Sarah The Greens (WA)
    CULLITY, Judith The Greens (WA)
    AB DLP Democratic Labour
    GOOD, Adrian DLP Democratic Labour
    KIERNAN, Cathy DLP Democratic Labour
    AC Katter’s Australian Party
    BOUWMAN, Phillip Katter’s Australian Party
    HODDINOTT, Susan Katter’s Australian Party
    AD Animal Justice Party
    LOVE, Katrina Animal Justice Party
    SUTTON, Alicia Animal Justice Party
    AE Sex Party
    PATTEN, Fiona Sex Party
    COLEMAN, Mark Sex Party
    AF Socialist Alliance
    BAINBRIDGE, Alex Socialist Alliance
    JENKINS, Chris Socialist Alliance
    AG Outdoor Recreation Party (Stop The Greens)
    FISHLOCK, David Outdoor Recreation Party (Stop The Greens)
    DE LIMA, Joaquim Outdoor Recreation Party (Stop The Greens)
    UG Ungrouped
    VAN LIESHOUT, Teresa Independent
    MUBARAK, Kim Independent

    Antony Green

    Antony Green is the ABC’s election analyst.

    Antony has worked on every federal, state and territory election since his first election with the ABC in Queensland in 1989.

    He has appeared regularly on camera since the 1993 Federal election, when he was the first to call the return of the Keating government.

    April 5 Election

    The Western Australian Senate re-election will be held on Saturday April 5.

    For all information on electoral enrolment, when and how to vote, visit the Electoral Commission website.

  • Climate economic impact models meaningless, so key question is “what is survivable?” not “what is affordable?”

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    Climate economic impact models meaningless, so key question is “what is survivable?” not “what is affordable?”

    Posted: 03 Apr 2014 08:40 PM PDT

    Forget the cost of mitigating climate change, say two researchers. It’s impossible to work out how much it will be – and whatever it is, we should do it anyway.

    By Alex Kirby, Climate News Network

    Two researchers who tried to work out the economics of  reducing global climate change to a tolerable level have come up with a perhaps surprising answer: essentially, we do not and cannot know what it would cost.

    Even more surprising, probably, is their conclusion: not knowing is no excuse for not acting. “Mitigating climate change must proceed regardless of long-run economic analyses”, they conclude, “or risk making the world uninhabitable.”

    Their report, entitled The economics of mitigating climate change: What can we know? is published online in Technological Forecasting and Social Change.

    The pair are Dr Rich Rosen, who specialises in energy system planning and is a senior fellow of the Tellus Institute, based in Boston, Massachusetts, and Edeltraud Guenther, professor of environmental management and accounting at Dresden University of Technology in Germany.

    In a densely-argued analysis of the long-term economics of mitigating climate change they say various kinds of uncertainties raise serious questions about whether or not the net costs and benefits of mitigation over periods as long as 50 years or a century can be known accurately enough to be useful to policymakers and citizens.

    Crisis ‘trumps uncertainty’

    Technological change, especially for energy efficiency technologies, is a key factor in making the net economic results of mitigation unknowable over the long term, they argue. So policymakers should not base mitigation policy on the estimated net economic impacts computed by integrated assessment models (IAM – models which combine scientific and economic insights).

    Instead, “mitigation policies must be forcefully implemented anyway given the actual physical climate change crisis, in spite of the many uncertainties involved in trying to predict the net economics of doing so”.

    This argument directly challenges the many politicians and others who insist that governments should adopt policies designed to limit climate change only if they can make a strong economic case for doing so. Essentially, it shifts the ground of the debate from “what is affordable?” to “what is survivable?”

    The authors say economic analyses of mitigating climate change rely on flawed sets of IAM results, which are invalidated by uncertainty over future technologies and their costs. They also believe changes in production and consumption patterns will affect mitigation costs.

    ‘Meaningless’ results

    They write:

    Since the Western lifestyle can probably not serve as a role model for the life styles of the nine billion people likely to inhabit our planet by 2050, significant but unpredictable changes to consumption and production patterns not incorporated in existing IAMs are likely to occur, adding another layer of uncertainty to the economic calculations made by these IAMs for the net costs and benefits of mitigating climate change.

    The IPCC and other scientific bodies should no longer report attempts at calculating the net economic impacts of mitigating climate change…

    The authors do not hide their scorn for the results provided by existing IAM scenarios. These, they write, are “not useful because even the simplest comparison of model results yields meaningless results — the uncertainties are too profound.”

    They end by posing a question:

    Should these findings and conclusions about the inadequacies of current IAMs really matter to policymakers who are trying to figure out when, and to what extent, to implement effective climate change mitigation policies?

    Their response is terse:

    Our answer is ‘no’, because humanity would be wise to mitigate climate change as quickly as possible without being constrained by existing economic systems and institutions, or risk making the world uninhabitable.

  • More heat on rooftop solar as STC war chests run out

    More heat on rooftop solar as STC war chests run out

    By on 3 April 2014
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    In order to meet the Renewable Energy Target, established by the federal government, a scheme of renewable energy certificates, equivalent to 1 megawatt of renewable energy, was created to provide a financial incentive for renewable energy creation.

    Initially this was in the form of a “Renewable Energy Certificate” (REC), a uniform scheme covering all means of creating renewable energy. But with the runaway success of small-scale solar PV, the government split the scheme and replaced Renewable Energy Certificates with a scheme for small scale generation below one hundred kilowatts, known as a “Small-scale Technology Certificate” (STC) and for systems over 100 kilowatts a certificate known as “Large-Scale Generation Certificate” (LGC) was created. This change occurred because the huge amount of small-scale solar PV systems being installed kept certificate prices lower than predicted and reduced the incentive for large-scale renewables investment.

    A split system was designed to allow each of the two sectors to operate separately. The government could then prescribe the amount of renewable energy certificates each camp must supply. The small-scale certificates program also came with a clearing house facility, a means of ensuring certificates were always available, regardless of the amount of certificates being created. It also guaranteed a fixed price of $40 per STC for all certificates sourced from it. For the great majority of time it has been in place, the open market has been a cheaper and reliable source of STCs, therefore few purchases have been from the clearing house to date.

    As open market STCs continue to firm in price, the spectre of a clearing house in deficit looks very possible. It looks clear that liable entities are swiftly emptying their stockpiles of STC’s and have even contacted STC creators directly to shore up supplies at a cheaper cost than via a broker. This would not happen if the market was awash with certificates. My story of the revised surrender quota (the amount of STC’s needing to be surrendered) reinforced my prophecy.

    So what happens next? It appears that despite the industry’s best efforts to change the Abbott agenda through influencing the WA senate election re-run, this may not bite as much as expected and the Libs could well increase their number of effective votes, rather than lose them. With the complete vacuum of new policy announcements since the federal election, one can only assume that a master plan has been drawn up for just about everything, including the renewable energy target (RET), and even small-scale solar.

    So what is in this plan? Will Abbott close the clearing house as soon as it empties and leave STC’s to float with no upper or, more importantly, lower limit? Any moves to favour large-scale renewables at the expense of small-scale projects would decimate the PV industry, it could happen by simply taking away the need to surrender STC’s or reducing the amount required.

    You can almost be assured that when Abbott is embarrassed enough to retain the RET, he will be taking into consideration the screams of state governments, who are crying about lost revenue streams from their state-owned distributors due to small-scale solar.

    Joe Hockey’s incentives to the states to sell off state-owned distributors almost guarantees that only large-scale, centralised renewable energy projects, backed by the big corporates, will benefit from a retained RET. Centralised and remote renewables still need all those poles and wires that small-scale rooftop installations have been making redundant, thus rescuing an asset from devaluation just in time for it to be sold off.

    I would be watching very carefully for legislation that forces an access charge on households for having a grid connection available, even if it is not used, the same as we have for water and sewerage. What a fantastic underlying, guaranteed income stream the states could lure prospective buyers with, a guaranteed charge to every household even if they are off-grid.

    We must be vigilant.

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  • Ex White House advisor rebukes Australia on climate stance

    Ex White House advisor rebukes Australia on climate stance

    By on 3 April 2014
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    One of the US President Barack Obama’s key advisors on climate change has lambasted Australia for its backflip on climate change policies and its decision to not send a minister to key international climate talks last year.

    Heather Zichal, who was lead advisor at the White House on energy and climate change for the first term of Obama’s presidency, noted that climate change policy – like it had been in the US – had unfortunately been politicized.

    However, she said this was likely to become an issue at the G20 – which Australia is hosting later this year. Prime Minister Tony Abbott has refused to put climate change on the agenda (he wants a “simple” outcome from the talks), despite pressure from the Obama administration to do so.

    “Many in Australia are trying to repeal the carbon tax, and that is an issue that has become more prominent with Australia’s chairmanship of the G20 this year,” Zichal told a conference on energy productivity in Sydney on Thursday.

    “But ignoring one of the biggest challenges we have ever faced is simply not an option …. sitting out climate change negotiations is not in Australia’s or any other nations’ interest. It is a huge mistake.”

    Last year, Australia chose not to send a minister to the annual climate change negotiations – held in November in Poland – and was widely criticized for an obstructionist role in the back-room talks.

    “Facts are facts  …. if traditional climate policies are not politically feasible, we just need another credible path forward  to emissions reduction,” Zichal said.

    “Abbott has said the focus of the G20 should be on economic growth. Economic productivity could be the sweet-spot here.”

    The Obama administration has been thwarted in its attempts to introduce a carbon price or an emissions trading scheme in the US, however it has introduced biting regulations that restrict the amount of pollution and emissions on power plants, and imposes strict standards on transport and buildings.

    It aims to double energy productivity by 2030 – a target it says will reduce domestic electricity bills by $1000 a year, create more than a million jobs, boost economic growth and reduce emissions by 33 per cent below 2005 levels.

    Zichal said Australia should adopt a similar target. “Ultimately, across all economic sectors, energy productivity is the most reliable, cleanest, and cheapest resource.”

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    • Keith

      Heather Zichal’s public statement is just the tip of the iceberg of pressure that the Abbott government will experience if it continues to try to avoid addressing climate change by ignoring it. This won’t go away and the G20 summit will become irrelevant (maybe even boycotted) if the Abbott Government doesn’t put climate change and reducing carbon emissions as major items on the agenda. These are THE economic issues that must be addressed.

    • Alen

      In the first six months now the Abbott government has managed undermine the relationship with a our close ally (Indonesia) and is well on track to undermine our other international relationships (especially with EU countries and now the US). This is quite the achievement in such a short timeframe. Keep this up for the rest of his term,and Abbott willl give Russia a good ‘run for the mone’y when it comes to international politics.

  • Australia’s lousy energy productivity: Why it lags the world

    Australia’s lousy energy productivity: Why it lags the world

    By on 3 April 2014
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    We don’t usually begin lead stories with a table, but this one is compelling. It shows how, over the past 40 years, Australia has sacrificed its position as one of the most energy productive economies – and therefore one of the cheapest – to become one of the least efficient, and therefor one of the most costly.

    energy productivity

    And it all came about because the country got lazy. Australia still has vast coal reserves, but the cost of delivery has soared to the point that consumer electricity prices have virtually doubled in the last five years. And now it is about to deal with a doubling, or even trebling, of gas prices.

    This is clearly having an impact on Australia’s competitiveness, but the nation’s energy productivity hardly figures in any of the major economic reforms that are currently under consideration.

    This is the major theme of a two-day conference in Sydney dubbed 2XEP, which stands for double energy productivity, a target that the energy efficiency industry says should be adopted in Australia (double the productivity by 2030), because all other major economies are doing the same thing.

    Australia, though, has hopelessly inadequate rules and regulations on efficiency – be it for buildings, transport or electricity generation. Alan Pears, a professor from RMIT, noted that building regulations in Australia are at a point where they would not be legal in most other countries.

    But Australia’s attitude to efficiency is long dated.

    Robert Hill, a former environment minister in the Howard government and now at the US Studies Centre, made a few interesting points at the conference.

    One was that his efforts to introduce stricter emissions targets on vehicles in Australia would destroy the Australian car industry. Now, the irony is, the country’s inability to produce energy fficiency vehicles was a likely contributor to downfall of the industry. The US car industry, meanwhile, is booming, particularly around low emission vehicles from the big 3 carmakers, and Tesla.

    (He noted that he was also responsible for helping to introduce the first renewable energy target. He said that  he was told at the time that even a 1.5 per cent renewable target would “destroy” the Australian economy. Now, he noted, the target was for a minimum 20 per cent and his home state was over 30 per cent. Still, the alarmism continues).

    Hill said he had no doubt that the federal government would reach the 5 per cent emission reduction target through “Direct Action.” The bigger question was what happens after 2020 – (or even with a higher target) – and “how much public money” can be thrown at a higher target. He suggested tighter regulation – through those much derided emission targets for cars, buildings, renewables – would be needed.

    In this context it was interesting to hear what the government had to say. The current environment minister Greg Hunt was a “no-show” after being dragged to a cabinet meeting in WA. His substitute, a senior department official, made his speech instead. The speech noted that the “electricity sector is facing major challenges as demand continues to fall.”

    This appears to be the premise that underpins the attitude to the current government’s position on renewals and energy efficiency. The prospect of “megawatts” – as we highlighted on Wednesday” – is a terrifying one to many in the industry and on the conservative side of politics which, as Hill suggested, resist these policies.

    The official noted that the current review of the renewable energy target would assess the “competing claims” on costs.

    Jon Jutsen, chairman of the Australian Alliance to Save Energy, says that Australian economic discussion is obsesses about labor costs and red tape, but energy productivity is simply not addressed in an meaningful way.

    Jutsen says Australia has blown its ability to offer cheap electricity, partly because too much money was invested in network infrastructure, leading to a surge in consumer costs, and partly because it has locked in a doubling, or possibly trebling in gas prices through its massive LNG export investments.

    He says that much of the $45 billion invested in network infrastructure over the last five years could have been avoided if utilities had “properly understood” customer needs. This would have resulted in lower consumer energy bills.

    However, Jutsen says despite its importance, the issue of energy productivity is not included in the government’s broader economics agenda.

    “We have poor energy productivity compared to our (international) competitors,” Jutsen said, noting that it had been increasing at half the rate of our competitors over the last decade.

    “It is clear now that this has to be addressed as productivity issue, not just as a sidebar of energy policy or electricity policy. “We should be looking at doubling our energy productivity by 2030.”

    As part of its roadmap, the alliance to save energy proposes:

    Changes to National Electricity Rules to support utilities undertaking Demand Management instead of new infrastructure investment

    – A national investment incentive scheme for business in all sectors to improve energy productivity, including facilitating greater private sector finance.

    – Streamlining, harmonising and extending existing energy efficiency schemes such as the NSW Energy Efficiency Scheme and the Victorian Energy Efficiency Target.

    – Minimum fuel economy standards for passenger and light freight vehicles, consistent with other developed nations.

    – Greater development and use of public transport and urban planning to reduce traffic congestion, including through innovative financing and road charging.

    All of which shouldn’t be, but could be, a major challenge for the government under its current policy directions. The Direct Action policy is likely to absorb the various state based energy efficiency targets, raising questions about whether any such savings would be “additional” to what would have happened.

    And it seems the Abbott government is determined to focus its infrastructure on the building of yet more roads – even to the point of pushing state governments to sell energy infrastructure to provide the funds for more tarmac.

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    • Miles Harding

      I has suspected that our mighty fearless leader didn’t mean decarbonising the economy in his carrot to the states.
      If the donkeys in Canberra were serious, energy efficiency and transport energy would be major goals. I see electrical efficiency, while very important, as a less pressing issue than transport, which is almost totally exposed to imported oil with it’s cost and supply issues. Instead, he is thinking more roads will solve the nation’s problems. His brain is stuck in the 1960s.

      A couple of years ago I was talking to an associate, who specialises in pavement surfacing, about when he thought that peak bitumen may occur. He said it had already happened in Australia and bitumen supplies are often the limiting factor in road construction. Perhaps this is a better use of Canadian tar sands, which come with built in aggregate!

      Maybe we return to gravel roads?
      http://www.resilience.org/stories/2010-04-05/peak-asphalt-return-gravel-roads