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  • When science and philosophy collide in a ‘fine-tuned’ universe

    3 April 2014, 6.46am AEST

    When science and philosophy collide in a ‘fine-tuned’ universe

    When renowned scientists now talk seriously about millions of multiverses, the old question “are we alone?” gets a whole new meaning. Our ever-expanding universe is incomprehensibly large – and its rate…

    ‘To be, or not to be – and not to exist at all. Ever.’ Eddi van W./Flickr, CC BY-SA

    When renowned scientists now talk seriously about millions of multiverses, the old question “are we alone?” gets a whole new meaning.

    Our ever-expanding universe is incomprehensibly large – and its rate of growth is apparently accelerating – but if so it’s actually in a very delicate balance.

    It’s then incredible that the universe exists at all. Let us explain.

    In a 2004 review in Science of Searle’s Mind a Brief Introduction, neuroscientist Christof Koch wrote:

    Whether we scientists are inspired, bored, or infuriated by philosophy, all our theorising and experimentation depends on particular philosophical background assumptions. This hidden influence is an acute embarrassment to many researchers, and it is therefore not often acknowledged. Such fundamental notions as reality, space, time and causality – notions found at the core of the scientific enterprise – all rely on particular metaphysical assumptions about the world.

    This may seem self-evident, and was regarded as important by Einstein, Bohr and the founders of quantum theory a century ago, but it runs against the grain of the views of working scientists in the post-war period.

    Karl Popper. Wikimedia Commons
    Click to enlarge

    Indeed, 21st-century mathematicians and scientists seem to have little need of philosophy.

    The glory days of Karl Popper, who argued that falsifiability was a hallmark of good science, and Thomas Kuhn, who noted the phenomenon of paradigm shifts, are long gone — in science, if not in the humanities.

    For many years, scientific philosophy as practised by scientists has languished, punctuated only by lapses such as the Sokal hoax, when NYU physicist Alan Sokal wrote a tongue-in-cheek article with a lot of scientific nonsense that was accepted by a leading journal in the postmodern science studies field (and launched a cottage industry of similar hoaxes).

    But maybe the tide is finally turning. Perhaps modern science really needs philosophy after all.

    Cosmic coincidences

    The main drivers here are some truly perplexing developments in physics and cosmology. In recent years physicists and cosmologists have uncovered numerous eye-popping “cosmic coincidences,” remarkable instances of apparent “fine-tuning” of the universe.

    Here are just three out of many that could be listed:

    1. Carbon resonance and the strong force. Although the abundance of hydrogen, helium and lithium are well-explained by known physical principles, the formation of heavier elements, beginning with carbon, very sensitively depends on the balance of the strong and weak forces. If the strong force were slightly stronger or slightly weaker (by just 1% in either direction), there would be no carbon or any heavier elements anywhere in the universe, and thus no carbon-based life forms like us to ask why.
    2. mag3737/Flickr, CC BY-NC-SA
      Click to enlarge

      The proton-to-electron mass ratio. A neutron’s mass is slightly more than the combined mass of a proton, an electron and a neutrino. If the neutron were very slightly less massive, then it could not decay without energy input. If its mass were lower by 1%, then isolated protons would decay instead of neutrons, and very few atoms heavier than lithium could form.

    3. The cosmological constant. Perhaps the most startling instance of fine-tuning is the cosmological constant paradox. This derives from the fact that when one calculates, based on known principles of quantum mechanics, the “vacuum energy density” of the universe, focusing on the electromagnetic force, one obtains the incredible result that empty space “weighs” 1,093g per cubic centimetre (cc). The actual average mass density of the universe, 10-28g per cc, differs by 120 orders of magnitude from theory.

    Physicists, who have fretted over the cosmological constant paradox for years, have noted that calculations such as the above involve only the electromagnetic force, and so perhaps when the contributions of the other known forces are included, all terms will cancel out to exactly zero, as a consequence of some unknown fundamental principle of physics.

    But these hopes were shattered with the 1998 discovery that the expansion of the universe is accelerating, which implied that the cosmological constant must be slightly positive.

    It was a Nobel prize-winning discovery too.

    This meant that physicists were left to explain the startling fact that the positive and negative contributions to the cosmological constant cancel to 120-digit accuracy, yet fail to cancel beginning at the 121st digit.

    Curiously, this observation is in accord with a prediction made by Nobel laureate and physicist Steven Weinberg in 1987, who argued from basic principles that the cosmological constant must be zero to within one part in roughly 10120 (and yet be nonzero), or else the universe either would have dispersed too fast for stars and galaxies to have formed, or else would have recollapsed upon itself long ago.

    The Anthropic Principle

    In short, numerous features of our universe seem fantastically fine-tuned for the existence of intelligent life. While some physicists still hold out for a “natural” explanation, many others are now coming to grips with the notion that our universe is profoundly unnatural, with no good explanation other than the Anthropic Principle — the universe is in this exceedingly improbable state, because if it weren’t, we wouldn’t be here to discuss the fact.

    Xanetia/Flickr, CC BY
    Click to enlarge

    They further note that the prevailing “eternal inflation” big bang scenario suggests that our universe is just one pocket in a continuously bifurcating multiverse.

    Inflation cosmology, by the way, got a significant experimental boost with the March 17, 2014 announcement that astronomers had discovered gravitational waves, signatures of the big bang inflation, in data collected from telescopes based at the South Pole.

    In a similar vein, string theory, the current best candidate for a “theory of everything,” predicts an enormous ensemble, numbering 10 to the power 500 by one accounting, of parallel universes. Thus in such a large or even infinite ensemble, we should not be surprised to find ourselves in an exceedingly fine-tuned universe.

    But to many scientists, such reasoning is anathema to traditional empirical science. Lee Smolin wrote in his 2006 book The Trouble with Physics:

    We physicists need to confront the crisis facing us. A scientific theory [the multiverse/ Anthropic Principle/ string theory paradigm] that makes no predictions and therefore is not subject to experiment can never fail, but such a theory can never succeed either, as long as science stands for knowledge gained from rational argument borne out by evidence.

    And even the proponents of such views have some explaining to do. For example, if there are truly infinitely many pocket universes like ours, as physicists argue is the case, how can one possibly define a “probability measure” on such an ensemble? In other words, what does it mean to talk of the “probability” of our universe existing in its observed state?

    But others see no alternative to some form of the multiverse and the Anthropic Principle. Physicist Max Tegmark, in his recent book Our Mathematical Universe, argues that not only is the multiverse real, but in fact that the multiverse is mathematics — all mathematical laws and structures actually exist, and are the ultimate stuff of the universe.

    Eddi van W./Flickr, CC BY-NC-ND
    Click to enlarge

    Modern science needs philosophy

    With this backdrop, a growing number of scientists are calling for head-to-head interactions with philosophers. In a recent New Scientist article, cosmologist Joseph Silk reviews these and other issues now faced by the field, and then notes that such problems, probing the meaning of our very existence, are closely akin to those that have been debated by philosophers through the ages.

    Thus perhaps a new dialogue between science and philosophy can bring some badly needed insights into physics and other leading-edge fields such as neurobiology. (Indeed, there is a burgeoning sub discipline of neurophilosophy.)

    As Silk explains,

    Drawing the line between philosophy and physics has never been easy. Perhaps it is time to stop trying. The interface is ripe for exploration.

     

    This article first appeared on Math Drudge.

  • Survey: Country Patient Accommodation

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    Survey: Country Patient Accommodation

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    Linda Samera via CommunityRun ljrsamera@gmail.com via sendgrid.info

    4:40 PM (25 minutes ago)

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    Dear Supporters,

    Just in case you didn’t see this last week, we’re still accepting responses to the survey about country patient accommodation. Can you help by completing the survey?

    Click here to take the survey.

    Thanks so much,

    Linda Samera

     

    —Original Email—

    Dear Supporters,

    Despite our best efforts, country patients are still out in the cold. The NSW Government has yet to take steps to ensure country patients have accessible and affordable accommodation at all major hospitals in NSW.

    During my meeting with the General Manager of Royal North Shore Hospital, Sue Shilbury, it was pointed out that there is no data on the experience of patients who have to travel and stay near a major hospital to receive healthcare. This data is not kept by NSW Health.

    Knowing more specifics about how many people require accommodation and for how long, would be invaluable evidence to take to decision-makers who want figures and facts before they act to fix the problem. We also want to tell the stories of the people who have been affected by the closure of country patient accommodation.

    Each of you has some experience of the lack of accommodation near a major hospital and your stories can help make an emotional connection with decision makers and persuade them to fix the problem.

    We have put together a survey to collect the facts that tell us how big this problem is and tell the stories of the people it’s affected. Can you take ten minutes now to complete a survey on your experience with country patient accommodation?

    Click here to take the survey.

    Your story could be a personal experience or that of a family member, friend, or a patient you’ve known. Every story counts and will help create at strong argument for the need for this accommodation at all NSW major hospitals. Your survey answers will form the largest and only data source on this problem in NSW. It will also strengthen this petition as your stories are a powerful tool in communicating a clear message to decision makers in NSW.

    Many of you have already heard my own story. I was a remote area GP and saw first hand my patients choosing not to get treatment or struggling with crippling debts from ttravelling to capital cities to receive healthcare. Later, as a patient myself who requires reqular treatment in Sydney more than 500km from home, I was forced to make the same difficult decision when Blue Gum Lodge closed. But my decision to share my own story has already lead to thousands of people across NSW signing my CommunityRun petition and writing to the Minister.

    We all have a story worth sharing. Can you take 10 mins now to complete this survey and tell me about your own experiences? I invite you to be a part of the building of this first and only resource and a valuable tool in this campaign.

    Click here to take the survey.

    Thank you so much for taking this time. I deeply appreciate your support and know there are many more people out there who appreciate all that is being done to see this problem turned around.

    Thanks again!

    Linda Samera

    You received this email because you signed the petition ‘Don’t leave country

  • Radio: “Surprisingly, high concentrations [of Fukushima cesium] found in Vancouver area” since ocean currents slow down — Levels are increasing — “Might be hotspots where radiation concentrates” — “Chances are high for marine life to absorb it… concern about mussels, clams, oysters” (AUDIO)

    Radio: “Surprisingly, high concentrations [of Fukushima cesium] found in Vancouver area” since ocean currents slow down — Levels are increasing — “Might be hotspots where radiation concentrates” — “Chances are high for marine life to absorb it… concern about mussels, clams, oysters” (AUDIO)

  • Changing the Course of History HANSEN

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    Changing the Course of History

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    James Hansen via mail194.atl61.mcsv.net

    3:29 AM (4 hours ago)

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    Changing the Course of History
    An ode to courageous, determined people in Oregon and Washington is available here or on my web page.

    ~Jim
    1 April 2014

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  • Loss Adjustment MONBIOT.

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    George Monbiot news@monbiot.com via google.com

    6:05 PM (2 minutes ago)

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    Monbiot.com


    Loss Adjustment

    Posted: 31 Mar 2014 11:51 AM PDT

    When people say we should adapt to climate change, do they have any idea what that means?
    By George Monbiot, published in the Guardian 1st April 2014

    To understand what is happening to the living planet, the great conservationist Aldo Leopold remarked, is to live “in a world of wounds … An ecologist must either harden his shell and make believe that the consequences of science are none of his business, or he must be the doctor who sees the marks of death in a community that believes itself well and does not want to be told otherwise.”(1)

    The metaphor suggests that he might have seen Henrik Ibsen’s play An Enemy of the People(2). Thomas Stockmann is a doctor in a small Norwegian town, and medical officer at the public baths whose construction has been overseen by his brother, the mayor. The baths, the mayor boasts, “will become the focus of our municipal life! … Houses and landed property are rising in value every day.”

    But Dr Stockmann discovers that the pipes were built in the wrong place, and the water feeding the baths is contaminated. “The source is poisoned …We are making our living by retailing filth and corruption! The whole of our flourishing municipal life derives its sustenance from a lie!” People bathing in the water to improve their health are instead falling ill.

    Dr Stockmann expects to be treated as a hero for exposing this deadly threat. After the mayor discovers that re-laying the pipes would cost a fortune and probably sink the whole project, he decides that his brother’s report “has not convinced me that the condition of the water at the baths is as bad as you represent it to be.” He proposes to ignore the problem, make some cosmetic adjustments and carry on as before. After all, “the matter in hand is not simply a scientific one. It is a complicated matter, and has its economic as well as its technical side.” The local paper, the baths committee and the business people side with the mayor against the doctor’s “unreliable and exaggerated accounts”.

    Astonished and enraged, Dr Stockmann lashes out madly at everyone. He attacks the town as a nest of imbeciles, and finds himself, in turn, denounced as an enemy of the people. His windows are broken, his clothes are torn, he’s evicted and ruined.

    Yesterday’s editorial in the Daily Telegraph, which was by no means the worst of the recent commentary on this issue, follows the first three acts of the play(3). Marking the new assessment by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the paper sides with the mayor. First it suggests that the panel cannot be trusted, partly because its accounts are unreliable and exaggerated and partly because it uses “model-driven assumptions” to forecast future trends. (What would the Telegraph prefer? Tea leaves? Entrails?). Then it suggests that trying to stop manmade climate change would be too expensive. Then it proposes making some cosmetic adjustments and carrying on as before. (“Perhaps instead of continued doom-mongering, however, greater thought needs to be given to how mankind might adapt to the climatic realities.”)

    But at least the Telegraph accepted that the issue deserved some prominence. On the Daily Mail’s website, climate breakdown was scarcely a footnote to the real issues of the day: “Kim Kardashian looks more confident than ever as she shows off her toned curves” and “Little George is the spitting image of Kate”.

    Beneath these indispensable reports was a story celebrating the discovery of “vast deposits of coal lying under the North Sea, which could provide enough energy to power Britain for centuries.”(4) No connection with the release of the new climate report was made. Like royal babies, Kim’s curves and Ibsen’s municipal baths, coal is good for business. Global warming, like Dr Stockmann’s contaminants, is the spectre at the feast.

    Everywhere we’re told that it’s easier to adapt to global warming than to stop causing it. This suggests that it’s not only the Stern review on the economics of climate change (showing that it’s much cheaper to avert climate breakdown than to try to live with it(5)) that has been forgotten, but also the floods which have so recently abated. If a small, rich, well-organised nation cannot protect its people from a winter of exceptional rainfall – which might have been caused by less than one degree of global warming – what hope do other nations have, when faced with four degrees or more?

    When our environment secretary, Owen Paterson, assures us that climate change “is something we can adapt to over time”(6) or Simon Jenkins, in the Guardian yesterday, says that we should move towards “thinking intelligently about how the world should adapt to what is already happening”(7), what do they envisage? Cities relocated to higher ground? Roads and railways shifted inland? Rivers diverted? Arable land abandoned? Regions depopulated? Have they any clue about what this would cost? Of what the impacts would be for the people breezily being told to live with it?

    My guess is that they don’t envisage anything: they have no idea what they mean when they say adaptation. If they’ve thought about it at all, they probably picture a steady rise in temperatures, followed by a steady rise in impacts, to which we steadily adjust. But that, as we should know from our own recent experience, is not how it happens. Climate breakdown proceeds in fits and starts, sudden changes of state against which, as we discovered on a small scale in January, preparations cannot easily be made.

    Insurers working out their liability when a disaster has occurred use a process they call loss adjustment. It could describe what all of us who love this world are going through, as we begin to recognise that governments, the media and most businesses have no intention of seeking to avert the coming tragedies. We are being told to accept the world of wounds; to live with the disappearance, envisaged in the new climate report, of coral reefs and summer sea ice, of most glaciers and perhaps some rainforests, of rivers and wetlands and the species which, like many people, will be unable to adapt(8).

    As the scale of the loss to which we must adjust becomes clearer, grief and anger are sometimes overwhelming. You find yourself, as I have done in this column, lashing out at the entire town.

    www.monbiot.com

    References:

    1. Aldo Leopold, 1949. A Sand County Almanac. Oxford University Press.

    2. Read at http://www.gutenberg.org/files/2446/2446-h/2446-h.htm

    3. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/telegraph-view/10733381/The-climate-debate-needs-more-than-alarmism.html

    4. http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2593032/Coal-fuel-UK-centuries-Vast-deposits-totalling-23trillion-tonnes-North-Sea.html

    5. http://webarchive.nationalarchives.gov.uk/+/http:/www.hm-treasury.gov.uk/sternreview_index.htm

    6. http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2013/sep/30/owen-paterson-minister-climate-change-advantages

    7. http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/mar/31/ipcc-report-adaptation-climate-change

    8. http://ipcc-wg2.gov/AR5/images/uploads/IPCC_WG2AR5_SPM_Approved.pdf

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  • UN Scientific Panel Releases Report Sounding Alarm On Climate Change Dangers

    UN Scientific Panel Releases Report Sounding Alarm On Climate Change Dangers

    AP  | by  SETH BORENSTEIN
    Posted: 03/30/2014 9:00 pm EDT Updated: 03/31/2014 12:59 am EDT

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    CLIMATE CHANGE

    YOKOHAMA, Japan (AP) — Global warming is driving humanity toward a whole new level of many risks, a United Nations scientific panel reports, warning that the wild climate ride has only just begun.

    “Nobody on this planet is going to be untouched by the impacts of climate change,” Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change chairman Rajendra Pachauri said in a Monday news conference.

    Twenty-first century disasters such as killer heat waves in Europe, wildfires in the United States, droughts in Australia and deadly flooding in Mozambique, Thailand and Pakistan highlight how vulnerable humanity is to extreme weather, says a massive new report from a Nobel Prize-winning group of scientists released early Monday. The dangers are going to worsen as the climate changes even more, the report’s authors said.

    “We’re all sitting ducks,” Princeton University professor Michael Oppenheimer, one of the main authors of the 32-volume report, said in an interview.

    After several days of late-night wrangling, more than 100 governments unanimously approved the scientist-written 49-page summary — which is aimed at world political leaders. The summary mentions the word “risk” an average of about 5 1/2 times per page.

    “Changes are occurring rapidly and they are sort of building up that risk,” said the overall lead author of the report, Chris Field of the Carnegie Institution for Science in California.

    These risks are both big and small, according to the report. They are now and in the future. They hit farmers and big cities. Some places will have too much water, some not enough, including drinking water. Other risks mentioned in the report involve the price and availability of food, and to a lesser and more qualified extent some diseases, financial costs and even world peace.

    “Things are worse than we had predicted” in 2007, when the group of scientists last issued this type of report, said report co-author Saleemul Huq, director of the International Centre for Climate Change and Development at the Independent University in Bangladesh. “We are going to see more and more impacts, faster and sooner than we had anticipated.”

    The problems have gotten so bad that the panel had to add a new and dangerous level of risks. In 2007, the biggest risk level in one key summary graphic was “high” and colored blazing red. The latest report adds a new level, “very high,” and colors it deep purple.

    You might as well call it a “horrible” risk level, said report co-author Maarten van Aalst, a top official at the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies.

    “The horrible is something quite likely, and we won’t be able to do anything about it,” he said.

    The report predicts that the highest level of risk would first hit plants and animals, both on land and the acidifying oceans.

    Climate change will worsen problems that society already has, such as poverty, sickness, violence and refugees, according to the report. And on the other end, it will act as a brake slowing down the benefits of a modernizing society, such as regular economic growth and more efficient crop production, it says.

    “In recent decades, changes in climate have caused impacts on natural and human systems on all continents and across the oceans,” the report says.

    And if society doesn’t change, the future looks even worse, it says: “Increasing magnitudes of warming increase the likelihood of severe, pervasive, and irreversible impacts.”

    While the problems from global warming will hit everyone in some way, the magnitude of the harm won’t be equal, coming down harder on people who can least afford it, the report says. It will increase the gaps between the rich and poor, healthy and sick, young and old, and men and women, van Aalst said.

    But the report’s authors say this is not a modern day version of the Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse. Much of what they warn of are more nuanced troubles that grow by degrees and worsen other societal ills. The report also concedes that there are uncertainties in understanding and predicting future climate risks.

    The report, the fifth on warming’s impacts, includes risks to the ecosystems of the Earth, including a thawing Arctic, but it is far more oriented to what it means to people than past versions.

    The report also notes that one major area of risk is that with increased warming, incredibly dramatic but ultra-rare single major climate events, sometimes called tipping points, become more possible with huge consequences for the globe. These are events like the melting of the Greenland ice sheet, which would take more than 1,000 years.

    “I can’t think of a better word for what it means to society than the word ‘risk,’” said Virginia Burkett of the U.S. Geological Survey, one of the study’s main authors. She calls global warming “maybe one of the greatest known risks we face.”

    Global warming is triggered by heat-trapping gases, such as carbon dioxide, that stay in the atmosphere for a century. Much of the gases still in the air and trapping heat came from the United States and other industrial nations. China is now by far the No. 1 carbon dioxide polluter, followed by the United States and India.

    Unlike in past reports, where the scientists tried to limit examples of extremes to disasters that computer simulations can attribute partly to man-made warming, this version broadens what it looks at because it includes the larger issues of risk and vulnerability, van Aalst said.

    Freaky storms like 2013’s Typhoon Haiyan, 2012’s Superstorm Sandy and 2008’s ultra-deadly Cyclone Nargis may not have been caused by warming, but their fatal storm surges were augmented by climate change’s ever rising seas, he said.

    And in the cases of the big storms like Haiyan, Sandy and Hurricane Katrina in 2005, the poor were the most vulnerable, Oppenheimer and van Aalst said. The report talks about climate change helping create new pockets of poverty and “hotspots of hunger” even in richer countries, increasing inequality between rich and poor.

    Report co-author Maggie Opondo of the University of Nairobi said that especially in places like Africa, climate change and extreme events mean “people are going to become more vulnerable to sinking deeper into poverty.” And other study authors talked about the fairness issue with climate change.

    “Rich people benefit from using all these fossil fuels,” University of Sussex economist Richard Tol said. “Poorer people lose out.”

    Huq said he had hope because richer nations and people are being hit more, and “when it hits the rich, then it’s a problem” and people start acting on it.

    Part of the report talks about what can be done: reducing carbon pollution and adapting to and preparing for changing climates with smarter development.

    The report echoes an earlier U.N. climate science panel that said if greenhouse gases continue to rise, the world is looking at another about 6 or 7 degrees Fahrenheit (3.5 or 4 degrees Celsius) of warming by 2100 instead of the international goal of not allowing temperatures to rise more than 2 degrees Fahrenheit (1.2 degrees Celsius). The difference between those two outcomes, Princeton’s Oppenheimer said, “is the difference between driving on an icy road at 30 mph versus 90 mph. It’s risky at 30, but deadly at 90.”

    Tol, who is in the minority of experts here, had his name removed from the summary because he found it “too alarmist,” harping too much on risk.

    But the panel vice chairman, Jean-Pascal van Ypersele, said that’s not quite right: “We are pointing for reasons for alarm … It’s because the facts and the science and the data show that there are reasons to be alarmed. It’s not because we’re alarmist.”

    The report is based on more than 12,000 peer reviewed scientific studies. Michel Jarraud, secretary general of the World Meteorological Organization, a co-sponsor of the climate panel, said this report was “the most solid evidence you can get in any scientific discipline.”

    Michael Mann, a climate scientist at Pennsylvania State University who wasn’t part of this report, said he found the report “very conservative” because it is based on only peer reviewed studies and has to be approved unanimously.

    The Obama White House hailed the report as comprehensive and authoritative. John Holdren, the presidential science adviser, said in a written statement that “the report underscores the need for immediate action in order to avoid the most severe impacts of climate change.” Environmental groups echoed that sentiment.

    Pachauri said the U.N. panel doesn’t tell governments what they should do, but said Holdren is right that “it is a call for action.” Without reductions in emissions, he said, impacts from warming “could get out of control.”

    There is still time to adapt to some of the coming changes and reduce heat-trapping emissions, so it’s not all bad, said study co-author Patricia Romero-Lankao of the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Colorado.

    “We have a closing window of opportunity,” she said. “We do have choices. We need to act now.”

    ___

    Online:
    The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change: http://www.ipcc.ch
    ___

    Seth Borenstein can be followed at http://twitter.com/borenbears