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  • Solar to provide quarter of electricity by 2050

    Solar to provide quarter of electricity by 2050

    Ecologist

    14th May, 2010

    North Africa expected to become major producer of concentrated solar power (CSP), more than half of which would be exported to meet European electricity demands

    Solar electricity should be able to meet 20 to 25 per cent of global electricity production by 2050, according to analysis by the International Energy Agency (IEA).

    The IEA expects photovoltaic (PV) solar panels to provide 5 per cent of global electricity by 2030 and 11 per cent by 2050, driven by favourable incentive policies for residential and commercial installation. It also expects PV to provide a significant amount of energy for off-grid communities in rural areas.

    Concentrated Solar Power (CSP) is expected to grow to a similar market share – 11 per cent by 2050 – but its expansion will depend largely on the development of dedicated transport lines to bring power from regions with strong sunlight to areas of high population.

    According to the IEA, North America is likely to be the biggest producer of CSP electricty, followed by India and North Africa. The latter is expected to export half its production to Europe through power lines across the Mediterranean. 

    David Matthews, CEO of the Solar Trade Association, said solar PV and CSP would complement each other rather than be in competition.

    ‘The reality is that we need both PV and CSP: PV in northern Europe and CSP in the south where there is the direct sunshine.’

    A market analysis by PricewaterhouseCoopers and due to be published next week says that the installation of solar PV in the UK is likely to increase five fold by the end of 2010, driven by the newly introduced feed-in tariffs.

    PV currrently represents 0.3 per cent of renewable energy in the UK, generating 28 MW. PwC expects that figure to reach 500 MW by 2015.

    In the longer term, Matthews said he expects CSP to have the bigger role in meeting the world’s power needs because of its lower costs per kilowatt, and its ability to store energy overnight as well as transfer it over long distances

  • There’s no right and wrong to tackling climate change

     

    Not so with climate change. Climate change is a ‘wicked’ problem. There is no unambiguous formulation of what the problem is and no opportunity to learn from other, similar cases. Proposed solutions are so embedded in matrices of social, economic and political cause and effect that they are likely to spawn further unforeseeable and unwelcome side effects. It is not surprising that some have despaired and are now suggesting that we must cut through this Gordian knot and find a more direct solution through climate engineering. Pumping aerosols into the stratosphere, it is claimed, would allow us to control the planet’s temperature directly, bypassing these troublesome entanglements and this social inertia.

    But climate change has come to signify far more than the physical ramifications of human disturbance to the composition of the earth’s atmosphere and its energy balance. Climate change has become as much a social phenomenon as it is a physical one. Arguments about the causes and consequences of climate change – and the solutions to it – have become nothing less than arguments about some of the most intractable social, ethical and political disputes of our era: the endurance of chronic poverty in a world of riches; the nature of the social contract between state and citizen; the cultural authority of scientific knowledge; and the role of technology in delivering social goods. Climate change has become a metaphor for the imagined future of human life and civilisation on earth. 

    The different meanings that can be attached to the idea of climate change are illustrated well by considering ways in which the issue is framed in India. For many in this country, the key concerns are how to secure financial reparations for environmental damage caused by northern nations through the proxy of climate and how to use climate change to advance the development of the 500 million people living in absolute poverty. This framing of climate change is very different from that which prevails in much western discourse and implies a very different set of international and domestic policy prescriptions. The issue is less about how to reverse a two-degree temperature change, how to save polar bears or how to avoid metaphorical tipping points than it is about how to secure hundreds of billions of dollars to invest in basic human welfare.

    It is not surprising, then, that arguments about climate change are invested with powerful ideological instincts and interests. Solutions to climate change vary from market-based mechanisms and technology-driven innovation to justice-focused initiatives and low-consumption localism as a form of lifestyle, each carrying ideological commitments. It is despairingly naive to reduce such intense (and legitimate) arguments to the polarities of ‘belief’ or ‘scepticism’ about science.

    Belief in what, exactly? Is it the belief that humans are contributing significantly to climate change? Yes, science can speak authoritatively on this question. Or a belief that the possible consequences of future change warrant an emergency policy programme? Scientific evidence here offers only one strand of the necessary reasoning. Or a belief that such an emergency policy programme must be secured through an international, legally binding targets-and-timetables approach, such as Kyoto? On this, science has very little to say.

    On the other hand, what exactly is it that the so-called sceptics are charged with? Scepticism that environmental scientists, businesses and central government are in collusion to fabricate evidence? This is barely plausible. Or scepticism that claims about the future that are based on scientific knowledge are sometimes overstretched and underplay uncertainties? The latter is a warning that all would do well to heed. 

    The problem here is the tendency to reduce all these complexities into a simple litmus test of whether or not someone believes orthodox scientific claims about the causes and consequences of climate change. This is dividing the world into goodies and baddies, believers and deniers. Climate change demands of us something much more sophisticated than this. 

    Rather than reducing climate change to arguments about how settled – or not – the science is (predictions in environmental science are rarely, if ever, settled), we need to provide the intellectual, educational, ethical and political spaces to argue fearlessly with one another about the very things that the idea of climate change demands we take a position on. These include our attitudes to global poverty, the role of the state in behavioural change, the tension between acting on knowledge or on uncertainty, the meaning of human security and the value of technological innovation. Where we stand on issues such as these will determine which sort of solutions to climate change we choose to advocate. 

    None of these things is new. They have been around for a long time – for at least the 50 years since novelist and physicist CP Snow declared that advancing science and technology was the only sure way to secure human welfare. 

    But the idea of climate change – suggesting, as it does, that our current development trajectory may not be as systemically benign as we might wish – demands that we re-examine these troubling issues. We must examine them explicitly and honestly. And we must respect the different legitimate positions people adopt about these ideological and ethical entanglements when they appear in public spaces. Indeed, we must foster such exchanges without applying the sleight of hand that turns them back into arguments about belief (or otherwise) in scientific claims.

    Neither scientists nor politicians should try to discredit unorthodox views about how to respond to climate change by using the pejorative labels of ‘denialist’ or ‘flat-earther‘. Scientists must learn to respect their public audiences and to listen more closely to them. Now is no time for the elite to despair of democracy. We have only one planet, but we also have only one political system that most people would choose to live under. Politicians must learn not to hide behind science when asked to make complex judgements. Science is useful as a form of systematic critical enquiry into the functioning of the physical world, but it is not a substitute for political judgement, negotiation and compromise. 

    • Mike Hulme is professor of climate change at Britain’s University of East Anglia. His latest book, Why We Disagree About Climate Change: Understanding Controversy, Inaction and Opportunity , is published by Cambridge University Press.

    • This article was first published in the spring 2010 issue of the RSA Journal, a publication of the London-based Royal Society for the Encouragement of Arts, Manufactures and Commerce, and is used here with permission.

  • Preferential Voting in Australia

    May 12, 2010

    May 07, 2010

  • Stakeholders Team Up To Expand Europe’s Super-Grid

     

    Indicative of the growing momentum, yet another initiative recently entered the fray: the Friends of the Super-Grid. The group consists of established players in the energy logistics chain, including Areva of France, Prysmian of Italy, and Mainstream Renewable Power of Ireland as well as Germany’s Siemens and Hochtief. It has proposed a “phase one” project to connect England, Scotland, Germany and Norway at a cost estimated of around €34 billion.

    That amount is close to the €30 billion projected by the North Sea Countries Offshore Grid Initiative. That group, which launched at the end of last year, consists of the European Union member states Germany, France, Belgium, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Sweden, Denmark, Ireland and the United Kingdom as well as Norway, which is not part of the EU. Its goal is to spur construction of an offshore grid in the North Sea with connecting installations on the mainland. The countries hope to sign a memorandum of Understanding (MoU) later this year and lay the foundation for action.

    Who Foots the Bill?

    But the big question is: Who’s going to pay? Financing has been a sticking point in nearly all discussions about building super-grid infrastructure. It’s an expensive business – whether on land or at sea.

    Alone in Germany, Professor Georg Erdmann, an expert on energy systems at the Technical University of Berlin, expects costs to connect new offshore wind parks through 2020 to soar beyond the figures that were initially projected two years ago. He said groups working on new German wind parks know more today and now agree that the initial cost estimates were far too low.

    Greenpeace has looked at the costs of building high-voltage, long-distance onshore and offshore grids across Europe. The organization estimates that 34 existing high-voltage alternating current (HVAC) interconnections will need to be upgraded between neighboring countries at a cost of about €3 billion. At least another 17 high-voltage direct current (HVDC) interconnections will need to be installed for about €16 billion. And up to 11 new long-distance HVDC super-grid connections will be required for around €100 billion. The International Energy Agency (IEA), looking at only an upgrade of existing transmission assets in Europe, estimates investment of about € 200 billion through 2030.

    Numerous financing schemes are under discussion. The North Sea Grid Initiative plans a mix of public and private financing. Adam Bruce, global head of corporate affairs at Mainstream and chairman of the RenewableUK interest group, envisions a financing model for offshore grids and super-grids similar to the one for current grids: A regulatory framework allows transmission system operators (TSOs) to build grids and operate them at regulated rate of return “so they can attract investment to build,” he said. “For offshore, of course, you will need higher rates of return because of the risks involved.” 

    Bruce expects a new group of pan-European TSOs to run the network. “These could be a combination of existing TSOs and new players,” he said. “They could be organized within a framework, like the Airbus industrial group.”

    European grid planners picture a combination of interconnected grids: smart grids for intelligently connecting and distributing electricity from renewable sources; super grids for wide-area high-voltage distribution; and all of these integrated with existing onshore grids.  Smart grids are already attracting a number of potential new players to the energy sector, including telecommunication companies. The networks will require advanced communication, monitoring and control systems to balance supply, demand, and storage from thousands of small renewable energy producers, in addition to existing energy companies.

    Transmission Technology Debated

    As for the choice of technology, Mainstream’s Bruce says HVDC and, in particular, HVDC Light are the preferred systems for offshore grids. HVDC Light, which is based on Voltage Source Converters (VSCs), is capable of transmitting high-voltage electricity for very long distances with minimum loss.  The main advantage of HVDC Light cables over their HVAC counterparts is their reduced weight and dimensions, resulting in a higher power density. Put another way, the power they transport per kilogram of cable is higher.

    But Antonella Battaglini, senior scientist at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, said there is “still an animated discussion about technologies” for new onshore grid installations, noting that approximately 90 percent of Europe’s grid infrastructure today is HVAC. “We will need to distribute electricity not only from renewable sources but also to storage sites,” she said. “This is where the discussion about AC and DC is most relevant.”

    Battaglini has also been a key player in the launch of the Renewables Grid Initiative, which has brought non-governmental organizations (NGOs) such as World Wildlife Fund (WWF) and Greenwatch together with TSOs, including Tennet and Vattenfall. 

    Plenty of other groups are researching grids for North Sea countries, including the European Wind Integration Study (EWIS) and the Irish Scottish Links on Energy Study (ISLES). Super-grid construction related to renewable energy is also a hot topic in the industry association European Network for Transmission System Operators for Electricity (ENTSO-E), the European Commission’s Trans-European Networks for Electricity (TEN-E) and the Electricity Regional Initiative (ERI).

    If renewable energies are to play a huge role in Europe’s ambitious targets to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases 20 percent by 2020 and 80 percent by 2050 as EU leaders claim, then all these initiatives and other stakeholders need to come together and take action soon, experts say. “The 20-20 targets can’t be achieved in several European countries without extensive infrastructure expansion for renewable energy,” Battaglini said. “It’s time for a common voice for grid extension.” 

    John Blau is a U.S. journalist based in Germany. He specializes in business, technology and environmental reporting and also produces extensive industry research. John has written extensively about environmental issues in Germany.

  • Venezuela gas rig sinks into Caribbean

    Venezuela gas rig sinks into Caribbean

    Posted 7 minutes ago

    A natural gas exploration rig hailed as evidence of Venezuela’s engineering prowess sank in the Caribbean early on Thursday, less than a month after a deadly explosion in the Gulf of Mexico sank a BP-owned oil rig and created a natural disaster.

    All 95 workers on the Venezuelan rig were rescued safely and there was no gas leak, the government said.

    The BP accident claimed 11 lives and triggered one of the world’s worst oil spills, threatening sensitive coastal areas.

    Venezuelan energy minister Rafael Ramirez said the well being explored by the Aban Pearl platform had been safely sealed after the rig sank near the north-east coast, close to the Trinidad and Tobago islands.

    “This is different from the Gulf of Mexico, because it is a testing well,” he said.

    The rig’s captain and the last three engineers on board had to dive into the sea as the football field-sized platform disappeared beneath the waves, he said.

    The Aban Pearl was the first offshore gas rig operated by state oil company PDVSA. State television frequently portrayed the platform as evidence of Venezuela’s engineering prowess.

    The OPEC nation has been producing oil for more than a century, almost all of its oil and gas output onshore or from the inland Lake Maracaibo.

    Offshore drilling, especially deep water production, is expected to provide more of the world’s oil supply as production in onshore fields declines while demand rises.

    The BP spill has prompted a push for tighter offshore drilling regulations in the United States. The Venezuelan accident could bring more scrutiny to offshore drilling.

    Reuters

  • Oil industry failed to heed blowout warnings

     

    And yet the risks posed by deep-sea operations – and specifically the potential impact of the failure of key systems – have long been understood. In 2000, the US Department of the Interior’s Minerals Management Service (MMS) published a report warning that there were several difficulties connected with deep-water well control, that experience in this area was “limited” and with many rigs having very high oil production rates, a blowout could be “a potential show-stopper” for deep-water drilling in general. That may yet prove to be the case.

    Environmental waiver

    Four years later, a report prepared for the MMS by a team at Texas A&M University in College Station warned that while drilling technology had advanced, safety technology had stagnated – and highlighted blowout control as a particular concern.

    Then in 2008, a Society of Petroleum Engineers report warned that the hydraulic rams used in many BOPs to shut off oil flow may lack the capacity to cut through the high-strength drills used in deep-sea operations. The report’s authors included people employed by Transocean and BP – the companies that own and lease Deepwater Horizon respectively.

    Despite these reports, in 2009, the MMS granted BP’s Deepwater Horizon drilling operation a “categorical exclusion” from all environmental reviews under the US National Environmental Policy Act. Such exclusions are meant for projects where, if any problems occur, environmental damage is likely to be minimal or non-existent. Until this month’s spill, the MMS had granted hundreds of such waivers each year to drilling operations in the Gulf of Mexico.

    “It is unfortunately a very common practice and in this case it had catastrophic results,” says Kierán Suckling, executive director of the environmental group Center for Biological Diversity.

    Stopping a blowout

    The BOP is a massive stack of high-pressure valves, in this case weighing 400 tonnes, that sits on the sea floor and is designed to stop an uncontrolled release of oil or gas from a well during the initial drilling. At the bottom of the device are shear valves or rams designed to cut through the drill pipe and block off any oil flowing inside the pipe or through the surrounding well casing. Higher up the stack, annular rams are clamped onto the outside of the drill pipe, to reduce oil flow by tightening the ring-shaped space between the outer well casing and the inner drill pipe.

    The BOP beneath Deepwater Horizon had a number of mechanisms to activate both sets of rams, including a manual emergency shut-off on the drilling platform 1500 metres above the sea floor. It also came with sensors that would automatically activate the rams in the case of a rapid increase in well pressure. Additional sensors in the pipe running from the sea floor to the drilling platform were designed to activate the rams if pipe and platform ever separated.

    “We don’t know why it didn’t work,” says BP spokesman William Salvin. “We know automatic systems did not close it, we know workers hit the manual switch before evacuating the rig, and we have been trying since hours after the incident to activate the blowout preventer [using remotely operated vehicles] and that has not been successful.”

    Containment dome

    With the BOP failing, the options open to BP are limited. Other steps to stem the flow of oil are both slow and unproven. The approach that BP is trying at the moment is to cover the well head with a containment dome – a 12-metre-tall steel box with a funnel-shaped top leading to a relief pipe to channel the oil to the surface. Such domes have been deployed in shallow waters, but never previously at such depths.

    One of the challenges is the intense water pressure. “Navy submarines, for example, are crushed at 900 metres. We are working at 1500 metres; this is a very difficult technological challenge,” Salvin says. BP’s initial attempts this week have been confounded, the company says, by a build-up of methane hydrate crystals blocking the relief pipe.

    BP’s next fallback is a relief well, which it started drilling last week. Eventually this should intersect the original well near its origin, some 4000 metres below the sea floor, and then be used to flood it with mud and concrete to stop the uncontrolled flow. However, it could take up to three months to complete the job.

    “It may take a number of tries but you can do it,” says Ken Arnold, an oil industry consultant based in Houston, Texas. He adds that a GPS tracking device, as well as acoustic and magnetic field sensors, can be mounted behind the drill bit of the relief well to help pinpoint the existing well.

    What next?

    So what more could have been done to prevent such a disaster in the first place? Adding a second BOP or placing a containment dome above the BOP – ready to deploy in case of failure – may have helped. But these could make rigs more complex and more vulnerable to human error, Arnold warns. “Rushing to add more tests or redundancies on the system may be the wrong thing to do.”

    Suckling doubts that any deep-sea drilling can be safe. “Government and the oil industry have said for many years these wells are safe, but all technology eventually fails and if the cost to mitigate that failure is prohibitively expensive, you don’t go forward,” he says. “Are we willing to put entire ecosystems and the economies of several states at risk? I’d say no.”

    Cleaning up the mess

    BP and federal officials are employing a variety of clean-up techniques to limit the environmental impact of the massive oil spill from the Deepwater Horizon disaster.

    One of the primary tools is the use of dispersants, which work much like the detergents in washing-up liquid used to break down grease. The key ingredient being used in the Gulf of Mexico is a sulphonate, a surfactant that binds to both water and oil, reducing the surface tension of the oil. Solvents, including propylene glycol and 2-butoxyethanol are also being used to increase the dispersant’s ability to mix with the oil. With help from the ocean’s natural wave action, the reduction in surface tension allows large surface slicks to separate into individual droplets that eventually sink to the sea floor.

    “It’s a trade-off,” says Carys Mitchelmore of the University of Maryland’s Chesapeake Biological Laboratory in Solomons. “Dispersants take oil off the surface and keep it away from wetlands and other sensitive shoreline habitats where it can cause contamination for years.” But the suspension of tiny droplets in the water column and their eventual build-up on the sea floor can create problems for filter feeders such as mussels and oysters, corals and shrimp larvae.

    “Fish can ingest oil particles that then stick to their gills. It’s like coating our lungs in oil: they aren’t going to breathe too well and we wouldn’t either,” Mitchelmore says.

    Since the spill began, clean-up crews have deployed over a million litres of dispersant on the surface and are now testing the chemicals on the sea floor at the source of the leak. Dispersant application at such depths has never been tried before and researchers are unsure how well it would mix with oil in the cold, high-pressure environment at that depth and in the rising oil plume.

    “Dispersants need wave action, typically. This is a forceful plume but I have no idea how well that process will work,” Mitchelmore says.