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  • The Limits of Distributed Energy

    by Michael Hoexter, Ph.D.

    On a rainy January day in Sacramento, I attended a plenary meeting of California’s Renewable Energy Transmission Initiative. At one point, a smartly dressed man from one of the largest rooftop solar finance companies got up to tout the benefits of distributed energy, harping on the drawbacks of high-voltage transmission. Given the backlog of renewable energy projects in California requiring transmission, it was kind of amazing that he had bothered to come to a remote corner of the city to speak against the cause of his renewable energy brethren, an initiative that has zero impact on his firm. Needless to say, next time any of the assembled had a customer referral they would not be turning to this company.

    Distributed energy will continue to grow in importance and popularity, but alone it is insufficient to address the climate crisis.

    While not all renewable energy company reps are so tone-deaf, the practice of selling distributed energy projects in opposition to all utility scale or central station power projects is outdated and an aid to the continuing dominance of fossil fuels in our electric system.

    Distributed energy will continue to grow in importance and popularity, but alone it is insufficient to address the climate crisis. Large-scale renewable power in combination with aggressive energy efficiency and distributed generation will be absolutely necessary to meet the very ambitious GHG reduction and energy independence goals that we are setting for ourselves.

    There are many in the RE community, some frequent commenters here, who have embraced the dream of renewable energy in which communities or individual buildings would become energy self-sufficient or even net energy producers. This dream will probably become reality on a broad scale at some point in the future, but unfortunately not fast enough to cut GHG emissions rapidly when we need it most. This is not for a lack of trying by technology firms, as there is big money and much glory involved in more cost-effective and productive distributed technologies.

    Some fans of self-sufficiency are willing to devote time, mental bandwidth, and money to set themselves up to live off the grid (or live in remote areas anyway). But most of the population is either not inclined to live this way nor in the position to act on the inclination. The ideal of autarky is not everybody’s social or energy utopia; however, a substantially more energy-efficient lifestyle and built environment is, in my book, a categorical imperative.

    Currently, grid-tied distributed generation is the far more user-friendly option. A hidden component of the argument for these systems is “grid storage,” the notion that when your system isn’t producing energy, the grid will supply you with the energy that you need.  Unfortunately, that grid is emitting some of the GHGs that you may be trying to avoid with your distributed generation system, especially in areas with coal-fired baseload, a fairly common situation in the sunny Southwest or windy Great Plains.

    Well, now is the time to start thinking about cleaning up that “grid storage.” We can, through a combination of new geothermal, concentrating solar power with storage, small and medium hydro, concentrating photovoltaics (PV), regular PV, wind, marine renewables and pumped hydro, reduce the carbon footprint and therefore the ecological footprint of the grid. To clean up the grid means building some transmission lines (though less will need to be built if we build generation in areas with stronger renewable energy flow).

    As it turns out, even if we follow the very favorable policy conditions for distributed and large-scale renewable energy found in Germany, most energy will be generated in large installations, owned by cooperatives or by corporations, and those installations will cost less per unit of energy. Much to the chagrin of some people, a lot of those larger projects may need to be cited on undeveloped land.

    The people holding onto the ideal that power generation should be exclusively on developed land are avoiding the tough choices and inevitable compromises involved in building renewable generation facilities. They complain about the visual impact of wind turbines, solar farms or transmission lines without offering a realistic present day alternative that they and we will be able to afford.

    Choices within the area of transmission lines provide a graphic example of a tradeoff: Overhead transmission lines are about one tenth the cost of underground transmission infrastructure. Do you want to pay perhaps three or four times as much for electricity for this luxury? Nature does not just put electrical energy on tap, even if you own a renewable energy system; it takes various industrial and construction processes that cost money and involve compromises to bring you that power.

    Knee-jerk criticisms of the transmission system and utilities (sometimes found in the pages of this publication) flirt with a similar form of moral hazard. The utilities and grid operators, historically relying most on large-scale power plants, work to respond to our demand for electric power and the conveniences it offers us. In combination with related government agencies and transmission authorities, they have invested in and manage a huge infrastructure that is sending us the power that makes it possible for us to communicate, eat fresh food, get safe medical care, and move around safely. They have figured out ways to do this with a high level of efficiency and service, though unfortunately with fuels that are now endangering our climate. Some critics speak as if it is a breeze to reproduce this service on a smaller scale. This, I believe is either wishful thinking or ignorance.

    As Pogo said:  "We have met the enemy and he is us."

    So think carefully when you declare distributed energy the only solution: Is this going to be the sole road via which we transition from a fossil fuel to a renewable energy economy?  Have you figured out what the costs and availability of generation and storage are that will allow us to energize the devices that we need or want to use, individually and as a society? If you do the calculations, you will realize that developing judiciously sited central station renewable energy plants, new transmission lines, clean storage and ancillary services, as well as distributed generation is the only way we as a society are going to stop climate change while keeping our impact on the earth to a minimum.

    Michael Hoexter, Ph.D., a renewable energy and energy efficiency advocate, has helped California utilities implement and market energy and resource efficiency programs. His views on the transition to a sustainable energy economy and the valuation of energy and energy services can be found at www.greenthoughts.us.

  • EU industry carbon emissions flat in 2007

    The Commission cut the allocation of carbon emissions permits, called EU allowances (EUAs), by about 9 percent for 2008-12, and the fact emissions were roughly unchanged last year has not undermined expectations of an EUA shortage in 2008.

    "I expect a shortage this year simply because allocations have drastically gone down," said Fortis analyst Kris Voorspools, adding an estimate that EU industry emissions in the six largest countries rose some 1.2 percent last year.

    New Carbon Finance estimated that emissions fell 0.25 percent.

    While carbon prices dropped below 1 euro in 2007, EUAs for 2008 delivery were trading up 88 cents on Wednesday at 23.4 euros and analysts expect them to rise further.

    That will raise electricity prices for all EU citizens because power generators pass these costs on to consumers.

    It will also raise costs for participating businesses which have to buy permits to cover their own emissions above a certain quota, including electricity generators, the oil and gas industry, pulp, paper, steel and cement.

    CRITICISM

    Reuters analysis of Wednesday’s incomplete data suggested that the supply of EUAs exceeded by 1.5 percent actual emissions in 2007, so far reported, of 1.884 billion metric tons.

    The preliminary data accounted for more than 94 percent of emissions the previous year, the European Commission said earlier Wednesday.

    One continuing criticism of the emissions trading scheme is that affected businesses get almost all their permits for free, in an initial quota handed out by EU member states.

    That has allowed electricity generators across Europe to makes tens of billions of euros of windfall profits by passing on the costs of free permits until 2013, when the Commission proposes utilities will get no free allocation.

    The 28 billion euro ($43.76 billion) EU carbon market is the hub of a 40 billion euro global carbon market which is expected to be swelled by a U.S. federal scheme which all remaining U.S. presidential candidates support.

    For additional analysis on the carbon markets, go to here.

    (Reporting by Michael Szabo; Writing by Gerard Wynn; editing by James Jukwey)

  • New solar cells replace silicon

    NEW YORK – Silicon cells have been the mainstay of the solar photovoltaic industry, but advances in competing technologies could give those manufacturers a toehold in the rapidly growing renewable power market.

    Last week, researchers at the US Department of Energy’s National Renewable Energy Laboratory said they had achieved a new efficiency record for one of those promising technologies, putting it within reach of the silicon cell mark.

    The new technology uses copper indium gallium selenide, or CIGS, to turn sunlight into electricity inside a thin-film solar cell that is generally less expensive than versions relying on polysilicon.

    CIGS technology converts 19.9 percent of the sunlight hitting the cell into power, beating the previous mark of 19.5 percent and nearing the multicrystaline silicon cell record of 20.3 percent.

    Although the increase in efficiency looks modest, it would represent a 3 percent rise in production capacity for a company putting out one megawatt of electricity per year, said Ingrid Repins, a researcher on the NREL team. One megawatt can power about 850 homes.

    Silicon-based solar cells held 94 percent of the global market in 2006, according NREL data, with the remaining 6 percent split among thin-film companies, including CIGS makers.

    But that thin-film market share appears to be growing rapidly, helped by the opening of plants by companies such as First Solar, which uses different materials to construct its cells.

    Just a few years ago, CIGS cells’ efficiency stood near 15 percent, Repins said, and the technology is probably capable of reaching 23 percent in coming years.

    Global Solar, a privately held company that licenses CIGS technology from the NREL, last month opened an Arizona plant that will be capable of producing 40 MW of thin-film solar cells per year, and it plans to open another in Germany later this year.

    Other companies using CIGS technology include NanoSolar, which sparked market interest last year with its promise to make low-cost cells, as well as Ascent Solar Technologies, Miasole, International Solar Electric Technology Inc, SoloPower Inc and Solyndra.

    Analysts do not expect many public offerings from the sector in the near-term because of market turmoil that has caused shares of even the largest solar companies to swing wildly.

    Daystar, one of the only publicly listed CIGS makers, has seen its stock sink by about half this year to around $3.40 as it moves toward putting its production plant on line.


    LAB TO FACTORY FLOOR

    Natixis Bleichroeder analyst Mark Manley said the CIGS producers still needed to prove they could turn technological advances into viable products.

    "What you can do in the lab is one thing, but what you do in commercial production is another," he said. "What matters ultimately in solar from the economic standpoint is how many kilowatt hours you can produce for your dollar."

    Global Solar cells’ efficiency is about 10 percent, or half the level NREL achieved on a small scale in the lab.

    The company’s long-range goal is to mass-produce cells with 15 percent efficiency, said Chief Technology Officer Jeff Britt.

    "We have to develop manufacturing processes that are much faster … and we have to coat many square meters (with the CIGS semiconducting material)," he said.

    Under their nonexclusive pact, the NREL provides Global Solar with updates on its technological advances.

    "In many cases, we’re able to emulate the changes that they made in our own production," Britt said. "It’s very helpful."

  • Irrigators tell government to butt out

    The Murray Darling Basin’s biggest irrigation company, Murray Irrigation Ltd, has been called on to halt sales of water to governments until a satisfactory policy outcome has been reached with the Federal Water Minister, Penny Wong.

    The chairman of the Murray Valley Community Action Group (MVCAG) Lester Wheatley says if governments continue to take water from sellers who are under duress, in the middle of the worst drought in a century, there will be a major collapse of agriculture in the Basin.

    Concerned members of local government, peak industry groups and community water crisis members met in Deniliquin endrosed this view.

    They agreed they wanted Federal Water Minister Penny Wong to urgently visit the region to discuss the targeting of the Murray Valley in the water buy-up, and the social and economic consequences of this action.

    Mr Wheatley says there is an urgent need to investigate how much water is being targeted from this region in the current water buy-up.

    There’s an urgent need to understand the consequential economic and social impact, which will result from this large-scale transfer of irrigation water from productive use.

    “We will not stand by and watch water entitlements eroded from so called ‘willing sellers’ when we don’t know what quantities of water these government departments have already purchased and may purchase from our area,” Mr Wheatley says.

    “This region has had a zero allocation for the last two years and had its carry-over water suspended until recently.

    "The bucket is dry – there really is no water for us or the environment.

    "These are just paper transactions at a time when irrigators are financially under the hammer and in no position to make balanced judgments.

    “Many farmers are parting with their most valuable asset as a last resort just to stay afloat.

    "The tragedy is that the current closed tender process is not transparent,

    "We are seeing farmers playing Russian roulette – hoping they are accepting the best offer for their water entitlements.

    "There is a total lack of price transparency.

    "And four of the buyer’s in the market are tax payer funded entities.

    “The water in this valley is not only a resource for the farming community.

    "It is a resource for the productivity and sustainability of the towns of the Murray Valley as well.

    "So I seek urgent discussions with the Minister.

    "Until then the MVCAG requests Murray Irrigation and all other irrigation water authorities to immediately block all water sale transfers to government,” Mr Wheatley said.

  • Bureau Helps Farmers Prepare for Climate Chaos

    Farmers wanting to know more about rainfall and climate will find it much easier, thanks to two new tools released today as part of a Bureau of Meteorology upgrade.

    The first tool shows a range of rainfall scenarios for most rainfall recording stations in Australia.

    Farmers can also use a new online product to find out what factors are influencing the climate in their region by clicking on an interactive map.

    These products are the first in a series of new climate products being developed by the Bureau and the Managing Climate Variability program in response to a study on farmers’ seasonal forecasting needs.

    They aim to make seasonal forecasts more reliable, more useful and more accessible to farmers.

    The Rainfall Ranges product uses graphs to compare the current rainfall with historical values for every bureau weather station that has at least 20 years of records.

    It also shows a range of potential rainfall scenarios based on past climate information recorded at each site.

    “It is important to note that the scenarios are not forecasts," says Dr Andrew Watkins, senior climatologist from the Bureau’s National Climate Centre.

    "Rather, they provide a range of rainfall potential based on historical data.

    "Farmers can see, at a glance, what rainfall occurred in the past for a specific location.

    “This graph will be especially useful to farmers during autumn when seasonal forecast models offer less guidance.”

    Managing Climate Variability and the Bureau are also responding to the farmers’ requests for increased understanding of what drives regional climate.

    For the first time, the ‘Australian Climate Influences’ web page brings together simple information on all the things that drive our climate, including El Niño, La Niña, and the Indian Ocean dipole.

    Farmers can see what influences their part of the world by simply clicking on the map or the menu and looking up detailed descriptions.

    “The descriptions will include a where-and-when for each driver so farmers know what to look for when they hear a climate outlook or see a weather map or satellite image,” Dr Watkins says.

    “We’ve also included past examples of each climate influence upon Australia, and added related Bureau web pages for finding real time forecast information.”

    The new products are based on a survey of almost 500 farmers and their advisers who described what they wanted from a climate service.

    More products, including better seasonal forecast maps and further information products will be launched later in the year.

    Managing Climate Variability and the Bureau are interested in farmer feedback about these two new products.

    “Log on, have a look around, and let us know your thoughts,” says Dr Watkins.

    Both products are available on the Bureau’s Water and the Land (WATL) website: http://www.bom.gov.au/watl/.

    SOURCE: Rural Press national news bureau, Canberra

  • Nationals and Toot see eye to eye

    Nationals’ Senator Barnaby Joyce says, for the sake of balance, there is an issue the government does deserve credit for and this is its support for the development of the inland rail link.

    "It stands to reason that the straightest line between Melbourne and Brisbane (but preferably Gladstone) is not along the coast but through the inland," Senator Joyce says.

    "A locomotive with two drivers which pulls approximately 1400 tonnes is far more efficient than a truck with one driver pulling about 50 tonnes.

    “If you are standing at the traffic lights in Moree, NSW, or the roundabout at Goondiwindi, Qld, it becomes a clear fact the north – south transport of produce in the eastern states has to get off the road and onto rail.

    “I commend the allocation of $15 million of taxpayer funds towards the feasibility study of the standard gauge rail link.

    "I hope, if the government is truly interested in productivity, it goes a lot further than that and soon.

    “It will also be essential to make sure that in the development of the inland rail access is not monopolised.

    "Otherwise some of the potential benefits will be quickly lost.

    "The association of the movement of bulk produce, such as coal and grain, has a bad habit of playing into the hands of those who hold the commodity receiver infrastructure.

    “This has become glaringly apparent in the latest Senate Committee inquiry into the draft Wheat Export Marketing Bill 2008.

    "When the sole mover of the produce in a region is also the sole purchaser, then the multiple sellers are in a bad position indeed, without transparency and equivalency of terms.

    “The government has become hesitant to deal with the regional monopolisations which have become established at the regional loading terminals of bulk commodities.

    "This must be changed so the inland rail is a great asset for all Australians, not just a couple.”

    SOURCE: Queensland Country Life