Flow modelling released for Murray plan
Updated
The Federal Government has released the latest round of modelling on the effects of releasing more water down the Murray.
The modelling was requested by a ministerial council to assess the flow effects.
The current Murray-Darling Basin plan proposes 2,750 gigalitres of annual flow.
The latest report has found that by releasing an additional 450 gigalitres the environmental benefits would improve, particularly for the Murray, its main tributaries, the Coorong wetlands, lower lakes and Murray mouth.
It says more water would inundate those areas for longer periods.
South Australia has threatened to take a case to the High Court unless more water is returned to the environment under the final Murray-Darling plan.
SA Premier Jay Weatherill said the latest scientific analysis backed the state’s view.
“We have always known that the proposed 2,750 gigalitres was simply not enough for a healthy river,” he said.
“This is why we demanded this modelling be undertaken.”
Mr Weatherill said his Government might drop its legal threat if the Federal Government adopts the new modelling.
“There are a number of important conditions that we need to put on this. We need to make sure that that water is delivered in a way that actually maximises the benefits for South Australia so there are a number of key conditions we have on that number, but you need that number first,” he said.
“This is now the number that we need to campaign for to get a healthy river.
“We’ve always stood up for this river, it’s now the turn of those who’ve done the damage to remedy the damage, that’s our claim. We’re confident that the Commonwealth can meet that demand and we’re making that demand of the Commonwealth and the next few weeks are going to be critical in terms of delivering on this plan.”
Mr Weatherill said he knew there would be upstream complaint about the latest data.
“There will be people upstream who will fight against this. You’ve already heard them come out offering any number of excuses about why this shouldn’t happen,” he said.
“We now know that the issue that was offered as an excuse for not getting water down this river has been blown away by this modelling.
“The notion that you can’t get extra water down this river because of the constraints of the river is gone.”
The SA Liberal Opposition said it supported the latest flow modelling.
Federal Environment Minister Tony Burke is expected to table the final Murray-Darling Basin plan by the end of the year.
Mr Burke says the environmental outcomes projected in the new modelling are “staggeringly different” from the previous data.
“What we now have is some modelling which says if you remove these constraints, you can restore the rivers to health,” he said.
“You can restore the system to health with 3,200 gigalitres of water.
“Upstream there will continue to be arguments about how much impact that has on communities, and rightly so.”
Mr Burke says he is not in a position to outline how the water will be acquired.
“These issues are still up for negotiation and we are still working it through with all the states.”
Richard Kingsford, from the University of New South Wales, says returning at least 3,200 gigalitres to the basin would be a good first step in the long-term recovery process.
“From a scientific point of view the more water that gets back into the system, the more likely you are to achieve ecological health,” he said.
He says major wetlands and natural floodplains need greater flows if they are to be restored to good health.
“We need large enough flows to get onto the floodplains to make it to those river redgums that have been really stressed and many of them have died,” he said.
But the Victorian Government says the proposals may disadvantage basin communities.
The Victorian Premier, Ted Baillieu, says he is concerned the modelling would take more water away from basin communities.
“I think what we’ve been saying all along is we’re concerned about where that’s going to come from,” he said.
“And I don’t think the Federal Minister has yet produced a result which is going to win favour with the relevant community groups.”