Gas for road transport a way to replace declining oil
Senate committee report on Australia’s future oil shortage
Australia’s demand for petroleum has risen to more than 750,000 barrels a day and is projected to rise to more than 800,000 b/d by the end of the decade and over 1.2 million b/d by 2029-30, according to the Senate committee report on Australia’s future oil supply and alternative transport fuels, released last week,The Australian (12/2/07, p.32) reports.
Self-sufficiency will fall: "Australia’s net self-sufficiency in oil is expected to decline significantly as future discoveries are not expected to make up for the growth in demand and the decline in reserves as oil is produced," the report states.
Deficit for part of ’06: Analyst Graeme Bethune, of Energy Quest, noted last week that for two quarters last year Australia was in net energy deficit; that is, our revenue from oil, gas and coal exports was less than the cost of importing crude oil and refined petroleum products. But the bringing into production of the Woodside-operated Enfield development on the North West Shelf brought the equation back into surplus late in the year.
Addressing risks of alternatives: The Senate committee wants federal Treasury to identify options for "addressing the financial risks" facing investors in alternative fuel projects. “This … should determine how these risks might be best addressed in order to create a favourable investment climate for the timely development of alternative fuel industries, consistent with the principles of sustainability and security of supply."
Gas to liquids: This is a particularly prescient recommendation considering that the federal Government has been advised of Chevron’s renewed interest in gas-to-liquids, this time proposing an investment of up to $10 billion involving the development of the Wheatstone gas reservoir off Western Australia.
Gas for road transport: The scope of this development could be anywhere from 30,000 b/d of clean diesel to 200,000 b/d. Using Australia’s vast offshore natural gas reserve to fuel road transport is already a commercial proposition, with Wesfarmers investing up to $138 million in the construction of a 175 tonnes a day LNG plant at Kwinana, south of Perth, plus some associated infrastructure and two remote area power stations.
Wesfarmers’ plant: Work on the project began in November and commissioning is scheduled for the first quarter of calendar 2008. Wesfarmers, a large supplier through its Kleen-heat division, says LNG is an alternative to diesel and its plant will significantly expand LNG availability in Western Australia.
Trucks on LNG: Wesfarmers has been working on this concept for several years, supplying LNG from a pilot plant at Kwinana and from a depot at Dandenong in Victoria. Up to 70 trucks are now running on LNG. Industry analysts say both LNG and GTL, have far more long-term potential to alleviate Australia’s looming liquid fuel shortage than converting cars to run on LPG.
Peak arguments: The Senate committee recommended also that Geoscience Australia and ABARE reassess both the estimates of future oil supply and the "early peak" arguments and report on the probabilities and risks involved.
