Category: Archive

Archived material from historical editions of The Generator

  • Can We Call It Genocide Now?

    The study uses a scientific method known as "cluster sampling." In 87% of the deaths, the researchers requested death certificates, and more than 90% of the surveyed households produced the death certificates. Violence accounted for 601,000 deaths and disease and destruction of civilian infrastructure accounted for 54,000 deaths. The violent deaths are attributed to gunshot wounds, coalition air strikes, and car bombs.

    Johns Hopkins University epidemiologist Gilbert Burnham says, "We’re very confident with the results." Columbia University epidemiologist Ronald Waldman says the survey method used is "tried and true" and that "this is the best estimate of mortality we have."

    When asked about the report, President Bush stated: "I don’t consider it a credible report." Bush, of course, is not reality-based, and he knows that any unfavorable news is "enemy propaganda." That’s what the neocons who pull his strings tell him, and that is what he believes.

    What percentage of these 655,000 deaths were insurgents or "terrorists"? Probably 1% and no more than 2%. Bush’s "war on terror" is, in fact, a war on Iraqi civilians.

    Bush’s invasion has also spawned sectarian conflict or civil war, although the Bush regime denies it. Even Bush is smart enough to know that "bringing freedom and democracy to Iraq" is not compatible with setting off a civil war in Iraq. Since Bush, the faith-based, believes that he is bringing "freedom and democracy to Iraq," he cannot accept the fact that he has started a civil war.

    Hundreds of thousands of Iraqi civilians are not the only innocent victims of Bush’s illegal aggression. The New York Times (October 11) reports that Department of Veterans Affairs documents show that about one in five US soldiers who have served in Iraq or Afghanistan have suffered at least partial disability.

    To date more than 100,000 US troops who are veterans of these wars have been granted disability compensation. Although the US cannot put on the ground in Iraq more than 150,000 troops at one time, 1.5 million troops have served so far and 567,000 have been discharged of which 100,000 are receiving disability payments.

    Paul Sullivan, director of programs for Veterans for America, says that the current rate of injuries will produce 400,000 American veterans suffering 30% to 100% disability. Apparently, one of the severe forms of disability is post-traumatic stress, which does not count as a physical wound.

    What is America’s reward for Bush’s illegal wars that have killed 655,000 Iraqis, an uncounted number of Afghanis, and disabled as many as 400,000 US troops?

    According to the US National Intelligence Estimate and to practically every Middle East expert, Bush’s invasions have radicalized the Muslim Middle East, created legions of recruits for extremists, undermined America’s puppet rulers, imperiled Israel, and destroyed America’s reputation.

    We are talking about over one million casualties that have no other cause than blatant lies by Bush, Cheney, Rumsfeld, Rice, the bloodthirsty neoconservative cabal that occupies Bush’s subcabinet, and their corporate media propagandists, especially The Weekly Standard, Fox News, National Review, CNN, and the Wall Street Journal editorial page. The Bush regime deceived America and the world with its lies that Saddam Hussein had weapons of mass destruction that would be turned against the West by terrorists. By giving speeches that continually mentioned Iraq in the same context as 9/11, the Bush regime created the widespread impression, still prevalent among Americans, that Iraq was responsible for 9/11.

    What kind of government would destroy the lives through death or disability of over one million people for no valid reason?

    The same kind of government that fires its own lawyers for doing their constitutional duty. Navy lawyer Lt. Cmdr. Charles Swift was assigned the task of bringing Salim Hamdan to a guilty plea before the unconstitutional military tribunal that President Bush created for Guantanamo detainees. Instead, Cmdr. Swift did his duty and defended his client, winning in the US Supreme Court. The Bush administration retaliated by blocking Cmdr. Swift’s promotion, which killed his military career and sent the chilling message to all US military and government attorneys that constitutional scruples are career-enders in the Bush regime. Anyone who stands for the US Constitution is against Bush and his neocon regime.

    The Bush regime is proceeding exactly as the Nazi regime proceeded.
    First, eliminate every person of conscience and integrity from the government. Second, redefine duty as service to the leader: "You are with us or against us"–a formulation that leaves no place for duty to the US Constitution. Patriotism is redefined from loyalty to country and Constitution to loyalty to the government’s leader.

    Americans are too inattentive and distracted to be aware of the grave danger that the neoconservative Bush regime presents to American liberty and to world stability. The neoconservative drive to achieve hegemony over the American people and the entire world is similar to Hitler’s drive for hegemony. Hitler used racial superiority to justify Germany’s right to ride roughshod over other peoples and the right of the Nazi elite to rule over the German people.
    Neoconservatives use "American exceptionalism" and "the war on terror." There is no practical difference. Hitler cared no more about the peoples he mowed down in his drive for supremacy than the neoconservatives care about 655,000 dead Iraqis, 100,000 disabled American soldiers and 2,747 dead ones.

    When Bush, the Decider, claims unconstitutional powers and uses "signing statements" to negate US law whenever he feels the rule of law is in the way of his leadership, he is remarkably similar to Hitler, the Fuhrer, who told the Reichstag on February 20, 1938: "A man who feels it his duty at such an hour to assume the leadership of his people is not responsible to the laws of parliamentary usage or to a particular democratic conception, but solely to the mission placed upon him. And anyone who interferes with this mission is an enemy of the people."

    "You are with us or against us."

    Paul Craig Roberts was Assistant Secretary of the Treasury in the Reagan administration. He was Associate Editor of the Wall Street Journal editorial page and Contributing Editor of National Review. He is coauthor of The Tyranny of Good Intentions.He can be reached at: paulcraigroberts@yahoo.com

  • The Myth of the Spat Upon Vets

    Q: In the recent days the British general responsible for British troops in Iraq has make remarkably strong calls for British troops to be removed from Iraq. So it’s pretty timely to have a discussion like this, since I’m finding that there are quite a few students who are opposed to the US occupation of Iraq, but are afraid to "go against" the soldiers, many of whom are friends or relatives. First thing, though, is, for the sake of Counterpunchers who haven’t read your book The Spitting Image, maybe you could give a quick intro to the key arguments of the book.

    Lembcke: I got interested in this topic in the runup to the Persian Gulf War in 90-91. There were students who were opposed to the war, but afraid to speak out because of what they had heard about the antiwar movement and veterans during the Vietnam War era. These stories of ‘ spat upon‘ vets were beginning to circulate in the news and students on campuses were picking up on these stories. I had never heard these stories before. So I got interested in where they were coming from, how long they had been told, who was telling them and so forth.

    One thing led to another and I kept looking back in the historical records, when people were actually coming home from Vietnam and I found out that no, there was no record. Not only was there no record of people spat on, but none of anyone claiming that they were spat on. So then I got interested in the stories as a form of myth and found out that in other times and other places, especially Germany after WW 1, soldiers came home and told stories of feeling rejected by people and particularly stories of being spat on.

    Like with the case of the Vietnam stories many of the ‘spitters’ were young girls and knowing that these things happened at abother time and place supposedly, I found out about a Freudian psychologist who wrote about male fantasies and treated these stories as fantasies, expressions of the subconscious, men who felt they’d lost manhood in the war. When I told a psychologist friend of mine in womens studies, she asked me who the spitters wereshe too thought it was likely a myth since the spitters were women, an expression of loss of manhood.

    Looking a little further, I found that French soldiers returning from Indochina after defeat at Dien Bien Phu also told stories of being treated badly, rejected by women, attacked by women on the streets, having to take their uniforms off before going in public, being ashamed of their military service. These were very similar to stories circulating in the 1980’s in the US. The time gap between the end of the Vietnam War and when the stories began to be told is also a sign that there is something of an element of myth or legend. That’s the key part of the book, not whether or not such things, since it’s hard to refute what isn’t documented, ever happened, as much as the mythical element.

    And of course we see how the rise of the myth had an effect on support for the war in Iraq.

    Q: And what is the link that you see?

    Lembcke: In a nutshell, most people remember there was pretty widespread opposition to the US going into Iraq with huge demos in March and April of 2003. And then there were a good number of ‘support the troops’ rallies that tapped into the popular sentiment that something bad happened to the troops when they returned from Vietnam. The very slogan "support the troops" with the yellow ribbons and all that sort of presumes that someone doesn’t support the troops and that presumption is based on that sentiment, belief that when people came home from Vietnam they were treated badly and we don’t want to do that again this time.

    By having these rallies in 2003, the people who supported the war use support the troops as a way to support the war. A lot of these rallies told stories of Vietnam vets who had been spat on. I got calls from people in Florida, North Carolina, Vermont,news reporters who had been at these rallies and asking me, "What about these stories?". Sometimes they would even have men who said they were vets or family members who [] claimed they remembered someone being spat on. The myth was used to drum up emotional troops for the troops, or better said, to dampen down opposition to the war. Again, the same way it worked during the Persian Gulf War, some were afraid of being outspoken against the war lest they be accused of being ‘against the troops’.

    I teach at Holy Cross College and just the other day in one of my classes, in the context of talking about the context of the Bush administration’s strategy of being very accusatory toward critics of the war policy as being ‘cut and run’ Democrats, ‘soft on terrorism’With no more context than that, one of my students said she was ‘undecided about the war, but as long as the troops were fighting it was really important to ‘support the troops and we have to support the mission’Now is not the time to be critical of the war, it was, in her mindall mixed together.

    That’s the way it works on people’s emotions. It throws them off-target.

    The target is the war itself and what we need to be doing is opposing the war itself. Often emotions get kind of confused with this stuff about ‘supporting the troops’. It creates just enough space for the administration to push on ahead.

    Q: Yes, it seems to be a good strategy to distract from the main issue, namely the policy of making war itself. I never quite understand why it’s so important to focus on the supporting the troops as so central an issue. It doesn’t really matter, since the troops in fact have little, in fact no say, in war policies to begin with.

    Lembcke: Yes, it confuses the means and ends of war, it becomes a form of demagoguery. It makes a non-issue an issue, ‘support or not supporting the troops’. At a humanitarian level, none of us wants to put people in harm’s way. The people who oppose the wars are most strident in that objective of keeping people out of the war. That’s not an issue, but it keeps us from focusing on the war itself and talking about it. And one of the things I’m concerned about now is a certain strain of the anti-war movement ahs gotten caught up in this itself. There’s a certain group of antiwar types who focus on what happens to the soldiers, how they’re damaged psychologically, physically,I’ve been to a number of anti-war rallies now where all they talk about is PTSD and what happens to ‘our boys’ when we send them off to war. It’s sort of a mirroring of the political right’s approach. They make the ‘support the troops’ ideology the basis for supporting the war, and some strands in the anti-war movement now mimic that we need to oppose the war by ‘supporting the troops’ and, I’ve been to some antiwar protests where very very little is said about the war itself!

    We hear instead about getting the troops the help they need and heart rendering stories of parents of sons who have committed suicide after they come home, etc. That stuff from the anti-war left is as beclouding as similar rhetoric from the right, in that it takes us away from a political discourse, which we need in order to focus our energies around stopping the war and its causes.

    Q: What’s your sense in terms of how this myth is replayed now with vets coming home from Iraq and claims of their being ‘abused’ by the antiwar movement or sentiment?

    Lembcke: I’ve heard a few of these stories. Again, in the spring of ’03, stories circulated about soldiers being spat on. In New Hampshire a story went around that a woman in the National Guard had been pelted with a box of stones by antiwar teenagers. None of these stories have turned out to be supportable by any sort of evidence. And then, periodically, other stories like one in Seattle of a guy who was back from Iraq marching in a parade, ‘spat on’, ‘booed’, ‘called baby killer’, etc. The same, no serious evidence.

    Occasionally then I get reports of these, but I’ve always suspected if the war goes down as a ‘lost war’, we’ll hear more such stories, but the more important point, I think, is that the image of spat on Vietnam Vets is so engrained and part of the American memory and cultural sub-text, it almost doesn’t have to be reaffirmed through stories of Iraq Vets being ‘spat on’ or ‘mistreated’. It’s almost as though the Vietnam Spitting myth is a background that everyone ‘knows’ about and when the President talks of Democrats not supportive of the war or otherwise baits antiwar people, the background that makes that resonant is the belief that something untoward happened to Vietnam Vets.

    So it’s not necessarily good news for the anti-war movement if we don’t hear stories of Iraq Vets being ‘spat on’. My fear is the mythical spat on Vietnam Vet is now so internalized as something that "happened’, it doesn’t have to be spoken anymore as a contemporary phenomenon.

    Q: What’s the significance of the documentary "Sir! No Sir" , which tells the story of the GI antiwar movement during Vietnam, in terms of what that film can tell students trying to organize antiwar movements on campuses across America today?

    Lembcke: Oh, I think it’s terribly powerful. Even thought there’s no mention of Iraq, Afghanistan, or the War on Terror in the film, it seems that everyone that sees the film can extrapolate from it to the ways it applies to the wars that we’re currently involved in. Probably the greatest impact it has is on young people in the military today. I’ve done quite a bit of public speaking at showings of the film.

    First of all, it reminds even those of us involved in the antiwar movement as vets of stuff that they had forgotten about or informed us about things that were going on at that time that we didn’t know about. They’re kind of surprised to find out quite a few things about the GI antiwar movement that they didn’t know.

    Q: One of the things I was surprised to learn of was the extent of support shown to Jane Fonda by American soldiers stationed in Asia during the war at the " Free The Army" tour that she, other famous actors such as Donald Southerland, and soldiers/vets organized at US bases. Considering all the media discourse about vets’ anger at Fonda , I had no idea that some 60,000 soldiers had attended and enthusiastically received her at those shows, which served as an alternative to Bob Hope’s pro-war tours at the time. Also the extent of African American soldiers in the antiwar movement was something I never fully heard about in histories of the antiwar movement, which the movie makes clear was very deep and militant.

    Lembcke: I was in Vietnam in 1969 and got involved in Vietnam Veterans Against the War once I returned and yet there were things in that film that I had not known about at the time. On the one hand there was a lot in the news in the papers about the vets antiwar movement at the time, which I know now just from researching it. I don’t think there was a blackout at all, often it was front page news and people knew about it.
    One of the things I found interesting was looking at Stars and Stripes, the civilian published but military supported publication that soldiers got in Vietnam and it was all antiwar stuff. It reported the story of Billy Gene Smith, the GI accused of fragging an officer, which is featured in Sir! No Sir!. It had stories about soldiers in Vietnam wearing black armbands in support of the 1969 anti-war Moratorium back home. It turns out Stars and Stripes is a pretty good source for information on the vets’ and soldiers antiwar sentiment and movement back then!

    So people knew of these things then. The more important story is what’s happened to that in people’s consciousness and memory. It certainly is gone now, even from people who were active in the vets antiwar movement then. Sir! No Sir! has helped to bring it back into the public memory and showing that a vets antiwar movement can happen now is very helpful for people teaching in college and high school. They can take this knowledge into the classroom and that part of the history can get back into the curriculum. Younger people will now get a different view of what happened then.

    I’ve talked to a few soldiers back from Iraq, one a Holy Cross University Law School graduate who was an ROTC cadet who is back from Iraq and has spoken after showings of Sir No Sir! and likewise didn’t know about the GI antiwar movement during Vietnam. She reports that there is a lot of opposition to the US occupation of Iraq among US soldiers in Iraq but it doesn’t express itself because there’s no organization, no organized communication between people. Maybe the film will play a catalyst role, if people see this film about organized GI opposition to the Vietnam War, it might inspire and even spark their imagination about the kinds of thing that can be done to oppose the war from within the military.

    Q: And the significance of that for today?

    Well, the GI antiwar movement became a vitally important part of the antiwar movement during Vietnam. And that is likely to be the case today also. Lots of people are asking what’s the difference between today and Vietnam? Why isn’t there a movement today? One possible answer is that the movement within the military is not quite congealed yet, but that the potential is there. Hopefully Sir! No Sir! can have an effect on accelerating that development a bit.

    Q: One of the things that struck me about the film is that you saw that soldiers were not just protesting the war because of their equipment issues or technical matters about how the war was being conducted, but actually because they were against what was happening to the people of Vietnam because of the war and they were learning, while deployed there, about the actual history of the Vietnamese people’s struggles against foreign occupation as opposed to what they were brainwashed to believe in boot camp or high school teachers.

    Lembcke: Here’s a big difference, namely the nature of the ‘enemy’ and how it’s perceived. In the later years of Vietnam we came back rather sympathetic to the cause of the other side. One of the vets interviewed in the film, David Klein, talks of how he was shot and how he had shot a Viet Cong soldier. He then recalls how he looked at the fellow he had shot dead and realizes that this man was fighting for his country too, for freedom. That was a real consciousness raising moment for him and he dedicated moments like that to doing something to honor the loss of that man’s life, namely to end the war and contributing to the other side’s fight for freedom. I certainly came back in February 1970 with such sentiments, though I’m not sure exactly how it happened. Surely conversations with other GIs and my own reading at the time helped with that.

    But today it is harder to portray the ‘enemy’ in Iraq or Afghanistan in that kind of sympathetic way, there’s a political challenge there for the American antiwar movement to understand what the other side represents.

    It needs to get some grasp on what is supportable in what the other side is doing in Iraq and Afghanistan, like we did in the Vietnam War. Recall in the early phases of the Vietnam war, Ho Chi Minh and the Viet Cong were called terrorists and there tactics were called tactics of terror. Today we talk about the roadside bomb in Iraq, but during Vietnam there was the satchel charges were one of the main Vietnamese War.

    Q: For those of us who haven’t fought in a war, what is a Satchel Charge?

    Lembcke: A briefcase that would be loaded with explosives, dropped off some place and would explode. The point I’m making is that early in the war in Vietnam the Vietnamese and the Vietcong weren’t as viewed sympathetically as they were by the early 1970’s. What changed was how they were represented in terms of what they were all about. I think we need to go through that rethinking process on Iraq now, though I’m not sure where that goes.

    We don’t right now have an embraceable ‘other’ as we did in Vietnam and what the complexity of the other side means, how it’s to be sorted out, what’s supportablebut we need to find if there is something there to be supportable and that can have a big impact on the military elements against the war, namely that there is an honorableness to the ‘enemy’ on the other side as was the case for GIs against the war in Vietnam.

    Q: I always find it interesting to focus on what happens with US when it does negotiate with the armed opposition in Iraq, what the US’s key demands are during such negotiations and how the US can’t meet the oppositions’ demands because of that oppositions’ demands, no matter how low the bar is set, because those demands go against the interests of the US, given its actual goals in Iraq.

    Lembcke: Most of us understand the war ended when the Vietnamese people won. And when we recognized that the sooner the other side wins, the war is over. The US is not gonna stop fighting until it stops, when the US is unable or unwilling to win the war. That conclusion is very sobering if it’s applied to the war in Iraq. That’s a pretty sobering thought, is this war going to go on until the US can’t do so anymore and at what point is the US antiwar movement going to see that the war won’t end until the other sides win and who is the other side? It’s very complex, the other side is very divided, not a monolith. So I don’t know how that lesson from Vietnam translates into something we can act on to inform our political work today.

    Q: There’s plenty of writing out there on the liberal left that we can’t leave now because of the nature of the opposition.

    Lembcke: Yes, there is that, but you know the pro-war elements during Vietnam used that logic too. They often said we can’t leave now, we’ll have so many losses or the ‘bloodbath’ that would happen if we left too soon

    Q: I find that when I deal with people on the liberal-left who will argue that calling for leaving Iraq immediately is ‘isolationism’. But if you argue back that this is not isolationism we are arguing, but that the US should pay massive reparations to the people of Iraq for the damage the US invasion and occupation has caused the Iraqi people-no reply forthcoming. They have no answer as to why we know that that is not going to happen if the US stays there or if it leaves!

    But it opens up the question that people on the liberal-left who support staying there that the pro-war or lukewarm "anti-war" liberal left have no answer for, namely what is the purpose of what the US is doing in Iraq? It’s just set in stone for them that if we leave things will be worse, even though the evidence now is so overwhelmingly that the US occupation is the key source of the violence we see in Iraq today. So much so that the argument that once was so common among the liberal left, "well the Iraqis want us to stay" has really collapsed under the weight of Iraqi realities. Now even the Iraqis polled are saying in big majorities in US State Dept. commissioned polls that they want us to leave now and it’s ok to shoot US soldiers.

    Lembcke: The NYT kind of buried that story on the inside, but the antiwar movement can use that information. We shouldn’t have to make that argument, it should be apparent we’re not welcome, but sometimes data helps to persuade.

    Q: It also throws the light back on Iraqis, which the ‘supports the troops’ antiwar movement focus doesn’t do. The focus is so often only on Americans as though the only impact is on Americans or it’s the only one that matters, except for small periods like Abu Ghraib or Haditha

    Lembcke: Yes, the war becomes all about us and erases Iraqis, much like we did during Vietnam erasing the agency of Vietnamese people.

    Q: Yes, it’s interesting that in the process, ironically, it ignores the agency of the soldiers and their potential role in stopping the war and recognizing the actual roots of war itself.

    Lembcke: Yes, you know one of the best new sources of information for the antiwar movement is another film called " Why We Fight". I saw it with two classes and they haven’t stopped talking about it. If they had heard before about the term ‘military industrial compex", now it makes it more real. Now they think about the war beyond the slogans of "the war is for freedom, democracy’which is all most Americans know. The oil thing too has also become a kind of cliché they don’t think about much. For my students those bumper stickered explanations are erased and the film puts the war in a much more material and realistic framing. It’s a film that might have as important an impact as Sir! No Sir!

    Stephen Philion is an assistant professor of sociology at St. Cloud State University in the Department of Sociology and Anthropology, teaching social theory, sociology of race, and China and Globalization. His writings can be found at his website. He can be reached at: stephen_philion@yahoo.com

  • El Nino Certain says NCC

    The NCC says all the signs of an El Nino are here – and Australians should brace for hot conditions over the summer months.

    NCC spokesman Grant Beard says there is little chance of the current El Nino pattern dissipating.

    "If the development doesn’t continue, if there’s a sudden turnaround in patterns across the Pacific, well then we would probably fall short of declaring this or recognising this – in hindsight – as an event," he said.

    "But even if that did occur, the fact that we have high temperatures over the Pacific and low values of the SOI [Southern Oscillation Index], that means that the Australian climate, particularly the east of the country, is bias towards being warmer and drier than average for the rest of this year."

    Mr Beard says it is still too early to give any accurate assessment of weather patterns over the summer months.

    But he says it is likely that conditions in the nation’s south-east corner will be abnormally hot until the end of the year.

    "Across Victoria we are looking at chances in excess of 80 per cent for exceeding the long-term average for that three-month period," he said.

    "But El Nino events tend to breakdown, in terms of the climate patterns across Australia, sometime during summer.

    "Although temperatures might remain above average, the rainfall patterns are less predictable."

    ‘Serious implications’

    Australia’s last El Nino event was in 2002, with that year bringing unusually hot and dry conditions across most of the country.

    He says that should another El Nino event materialise, it will have serious implications for Australia’s environment.

    "We had a very severe drought that went from early 2002 into autumn 2003, but we haven’t really seen a strong break since that time," he said.

    "The rainfall has returned to somewhere close to average, but we haven’t had a wide-spread above average rainfall year at all since that previous event."

    "So with another event, such as the one we look like we’re in at the moment developing this year, it’s obviously going to have a fairly severe impact because, as we see in the news all the time, the water supplies are dwindling, or very low, and this is another thing to take into account."

    But Mr Beard says the current El Nino weather pattern is not having as strong an impact as that of 2002.

    "Obviously some areas are experiencing it very badly, mainly the south-east corner of the country and probably the south-west corner as well," he said.

    "But for say, large parts of Queensland and northern New South Wales, it hasn’t been anywhere as near as severe as what occurred in 2002."

    He says the current weather patterns could be linked to global climate change.

    "We’re concerned with long-term trends over large areas," he said.

    "So we’re looking at the kinds of changes in rainfall or temperature – say over Australia – over half a century to a century.

    "That’s the kind of thing we’re doing with climate change."

  • NSW calls for State of Emergency over water

    Primary Industries Minister Ian Macdonald says families in the city will also notice the effects of the drought.

    "It’s going to impact our Sydney dinner tables over summer with higher prices in meat, poultry, dairy products, flour," he said.

    "The shortages in these areas will be significant, basically because this is a national drought and our total production across the country will down dramatically."

    Opposition Leader Peter Debnam has defended his call for a state of emergency in response to the worsening water shortage.

    Mr Debnam says "bureaucratic paralysis" is hampering efforts to cope with the water crisis.

    "My job is to talk on behalf of the people of New South Wales and push … the Government to do something," he said.

    "Now on water they’ve done very little for 12 years.

    "The innovative proposals are staring them in the face – they’re just not doing them.

    "So the problem really is not the lack of innovative proposals, it’s the lack of action. Let’s cut through."

    But acting Premier John Watkins says calling a state of emergency would be a short-sighted approach.

    "The way to deal with drought is in an ordered national approach," he said.

    "That’s what we need discussion and debate amongst ministers in cooperation with the Commonwealth Government.

    "That’s the approach that NSW has taken. Long sustainable policies that will really assist people that are hurting."

    New South Wales Farmers Association spokesman Jock Laurie says the prolonged drought in Australia is unprecedented.

    Climatologists have told the Federal Government the Murray Darling Basin is drying up.

    Mr Laurie says governments at all levels should be ensuring farmers and their local communities are given all the support they need to survive the drought.

    "We’re starting to get into areas where I don’t think we’ve been before," he said.

    "For agriculture as a whole this is an extended drought, there’s no doubt about that.

    "I don’t think the Federal Government or the State Government has seen anything like this before.

    "I think both governments have been handling the last four or five years reasonably well."

    Councils in central New South Wales say they will not sit back and let the drought take its toll.

    Parkes Shire and other councils have decided to make state and federal submissions to seek aid for farmers and businesses and will send out an email to all drought-affected communities asking for suggestions on what can be done.

    Parkes Mayor Robert Wilson says the scale of the task is horrific.

    "No governments have ever been confronted with the scale of disaster from a drought scenario ever before and of course the solution is going to cost squillions of dollars," he said.

  • Gippsland running dry

    Farming region running out of water

    One of Victoria’s wettest farming regions is running out of water.

    The water storage at Leongatha, in Gippsland, is at 24 per cent and falling and residents are on stage four water restrictions.

    South Gippsland Water is auditing local businesses, including the major dairy processing plant Murray Goulburn, to see if their water use can be reduced.

    Meanwhile oil tankers could ship Tasmanian water to the mainland under a new proposal.

    Environment company Solar Sailer will propose harvesting fresh water from a number of sites in the state’s north, when it meets the Tasmanian Government next month.

    The company’s Robert Dane says selling water to major cities could prove a lucrative industry.

    "For the smallest quantity required by any capital city which is 50 gigalitres this could be worth about $300 million and if there were a number of cities that wanted more than just the minimum amount then you are looking a potentially billion of dollars [in an] export industry from Tasmania for something that is already just flowing into the ocean," he said.

  • UK plans coastal retreat

    Living on the edge

    Britain’s coastline has remained more or less intact since the end of the last ice age. But as sea levels rise, erosion is accelerating and more than a million homes are now under threat. Is the only solution for us to abandon the shore? Adam Nicolson reports

    It is the most subtle and unknowable of processes. The rocks of this country are, in part, still bobbing up in response to that huge ice load having been removed. An enormous boss of Scotland and northern England, stretching from Inverness to Morecambe Bay and from Edinburgh to Islay, is actually rising in relationship to the sea. But outside that protuberant bump, the country is slowly going under, largely because, as the earth warms up, the water in the oceans is expanding. Dire predictions of a sea-level rise of 6m or even 10m have been made regularly over the years, but the evidence is contradictory. Such a vast increase will depend on the total melting of the Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets, but it may be that a warmer atmosphere, which can hold more moisture, will actually increase snowfall over Antarctica, thickening the ice sheet and so reducing, or at least stabilising, global sea levels. The science remains tentative.

    There may be little to worry about. There may be a lot. The government-funded UK Climate Impacts Programme based in Oxford has produced maps that combine the predicted rise of the land with two different estimates for sea-level rise, one for a future in which we continue to drive our 4x4s and oil-fire our central heating as if there were no tomorrow; and one for a future in which we all take a little more care.

    The low-emissions future does not look too bad. Throughout the coming century, people on the west coast of Scotland from Ardnamurchan to the Mull of Kintyre are going to find themselves with even more beautiful grassy verges between their shoreside houses and the beach. Scottish west-coast lochs are the place to invest. Elsewhere in Britain, even by 2080, the sea will have risen by no more than 20cm, and in many places less than that.

    The high-emissions future is rather different. It begins to look like a rerun of the great prehistoric drowning. South-west Scotland is still the best off, but even that is going down by 50-60cm. Other parts of the country are set to experience a rise in sea level that very nearly matches the end of the last ice age: north-east England 66cm, the rest of the east coast 77cm, the south-east 74cm, Wales the same, with the south-west experiencing the deepest immersion at 80cm.

    All those Cornish fishing villages will be in severe trouble. The National Trust, which owns the tiny harbour on the west side of the Lizard at Mullion Cove, has already accepted that they cannot keep it for ever. Some repairs have been made this year, but at some time – not specified because there is no telling "when and how the ultimate extreme storm event or series of events" will occur – it will no longer be viable to repair, the breakwaters will be dismantled and Mullion Harbour will be as much of a memory as the campsites on Dogger Bank.

    The assets are real enough. About 1,062,000 flats and houses, 82,000 businesses, 2.5 million people and 2m acres of agricultural land, worth about £120bn in all, are thought to be at risk from coastal flooding and coastal erosion.

    If none of these things were defended from the sea, the annual average damage done to the country would be about £2bn. But the sea walls, as they stand, provide an extraordinary service, reducing the flood damage to £210m a year. Few of us recognise it, but we are already living in a fortress defended against the sea. The question is how much of that defence we are going to be able to maintain. With no improvements to the defences, the annual cost of damage by the sea is set to rise to more than £1bn a year. Do we defend it even more expensively? Or do we abandon what we cannot maintain?

    Certainly the National Trust, which owns one-tenth of the coastline of England and Wales, is going to let quite a lot of it go. The hotel and coastguard cottages at Birling Gap in East Sussex became a cause célèbre in the 90s – natural retreat from the Trust, "What about our houses?" from the residents. Ellie Robinson is assistant director of policy and campaigns. "The coast is a canary for the rest of the country. It is where change is evident. We have all been looking at things in the short term: defend this, save that. And we have lost sight of the big systems that underpin it all. There is no doubt that to defend it all is going to be too expensive. Cities, towns will be defended. But large stretches of the coastline are going to go. The coast is a history of process and change and that is what we all now have to understand. It is a question of inventive change in a riskier world."

    Natural processes will be allowed to take their course at Birling Gap. The retreating cliff will remain pristine white, and evidence of any human intervention will in time be removed by the sea. At Brancaster on the north Norfolk coast, the Trust has made its youth activity centre "floodable" – electricity sockets high up the wall, tiled floors- but in the end, says Robinson, "that will have to be abandoned too".

    The current state of the Norfolk Broads, whose beauty and ecology depends on the fresh water that flows into them from inland, will become increasingly difficult to maintain. "There will be a whole series of dynamics here," Robinson says. "Fresh water to saline, back to fresh water. It is inevitable that nat- ural processes will have to be allowed to take their course."

    On the Studland peninsula in Dorset, the Trust has moved beach huts and will move them again. Paths have been realigned at Golden Cap in Dorset and in Lancashire. At Porlock in north Somerset, the Trust has allowed the sea to breach the shingle ridge at the back of the beach and what was once grazing is now salt marsh. In another, extraordinarily expensive move, the Landmark Trust has begun to spend £900,000 transporting the prominent folly known as Clavell Tower, which has stood for two centuries above Kimmeridge Bay in south Dorset and inspired writers including Thomas Hardy, John Fowles and PD James, just 80 feet back from the cliff edge. It is a luxury treatment that few other buildings will be afforded.

    The area that will experience the greatest difficulties and the greatest distress is bound to be the east coast. Between the two chalk promontories of Flamborough Head in the East Riding of Yorkshire and the North Foreland in Kent, the face that England presents to the sea is weak, often low, muddy and vulnerable. It is here, both in the lowlands protected by dune systems and in the high ground defended only by crumbling cliffs made of glacial boulder clay, that a taste of the future is to be found. The east coast is what the future looks like, and it is an unsettling place. Little is really known: projected erosion on the north Norfolk coast has in places been five times what government studies thought it would be only 10 years ago; in other places, beaches have been replenished more than expected.

    The greatest difficulties arise when people’s attachment to their own houses and the places they love come into conflict with the new orthodoxy of managed retreat. Mike Ball, principal engineer for the East Riding of Yorkshire Council, takes me to see a street that is falling into the sea at Aldbrough in Holderness. "This is a sacrificial coast," he says. "It feeds the Humber, prevents it overdeepening, and the Lincolnshire beaches, which protect the low land behind them. And some of it goes to Holland." The soggy, boulder-clay cliffs we were looking at were visibly sliding downwards like cake drenched in rum. Above, the small bungalows and houses of Seaside Road looked hopeless and forlorn, ready to slide away to their wet and muddy fate. What about protecting them? "Look at these homes – they are not a good deal," Ball says. "The money would be better spent on the health service."

    But the irony, as Ball points out, is that the same houses in the south of England, where property values even in these circumstances are higher, might well qualify for hard protection because the cost of building the protection – currently about £5m a kilometre – would be outweighed by the value of the property. "And yet," says Ball, "the trauma felt by these people is just as strong as anywhere else."

    The fact is that money goes where money is. And that is the key to the greatest danger in the whole process: the creation of climate ghettoes. There are already embryonic examples. Until the early 90s, the beach at Sea Palling on the north Norfolk coast had been a horrible, eroded mass of sticky brown clay. No one wanted to spend any time there and the holiday businesses in the village had sunk to their lowest ebb. Then the Environment Agency built a series of offshore reefs at a cost of about £20m. Sand was pumped from the sea bed to create a beautiful beach within the reefs, and Sea Palling began to thrive. Charlie Roberts, proprietor of Sandy Hills Amusements just below the dunes, thinks his turnover has increased at least 500% since the reefs were put in. He has 10 staff now, where he only had two before the beach was remade, and he has just invested £100,000 in an extension of the arcade. It is a success story.

    Or is it? Since the Sea Palling reefs were installed, the longshore drift of sediment has been interrupted by them and there have been major problems down the coast, where dune systems have been eroded almost completely. It looks as if Sea Palling’s success has come at the expense of its neighbours.

    But the tale of two villages, one in Norfolk and one in Yorkshire, may well be symptomatic of what will happen in the years to come. Kilnsea, in the East Riding just north of Spurn Head, is an example of how to play the system; Happisburgh, in north Norfolk, a classic example of a climate ghetto in the making.

    Late last year, the Environment Agency published a document about the future of the Humber estuary. Without warning, the villagers of Kilnsea, a small and pretty settlement, read this: "The coastal defences near Kilnsea are being threatened by erosion, and could be breached within five to 10 years, but possibly in as little as two years. There is no economic justification for realigning or replacing these defences, so they are likely to be abandoned."

    A village of poor and retired people might in these circumstances have meekly accepted their fate and shuffled off to the council housing that was being offered. But Kilnsea, which has 28 businesses and a fair share of forceful and articulate inhabitants, was not going to accept that. What riled them most was that a colony of little terns just north of the village was going to receive careful attention and money from the Environment Agency and Natural England, as the birds were to be protected under a potent European nature designation. Stuart Haywood, chairman of the village action group and an electrical technician with BP, is still angry. "It appeared to be a fait accompli. That was it. The human side of it was being abandoned, but our feathered friends were being accommodated."

    The village activated itself, found money from a dazzling variety of sources, badgered its MP and councillors, and has managed to get flood protection authorised for at least the next 20 years. The banks and channels to save their houses are being dug this autumn.

    Happisburgh is at the other end of the spectrum. Beach Road, a yard or two of which is disappearing almost monthly, and which has lost 26 houses in the past 15 years, is at the poor end of quite a smart village. It has been without any sea defence since 1991, when the groynes and revetment below the cliff were partly smashed in a storm and the rest removed. The people at the end of Beach Road have implored the authorities to spend the money to defend their houses, but Defra maintains that the cost-benefit ratio is too high: perhaps £2m for 18 rather poor houses. Exceptions can’t be made. Campaigns have been waged, but there has been no movement on the part of the government.

    Phyllis Tubby, a retired nurse aged 85, feels she has been deserted. Her pristine bungalow, a few yards from the cliff edge, is considered worthless. No one will buy it and it is uninsurable. She bought it 20 years ago and "had it done up. I spent an awful lot of money to make it comfortable. I had it surveyed, and the surveyor said, ‘You’ll be all right for 100 years.’ And it wouldn’t bother me then. But I do worry about it. When I go to bed at night I hope I don’t wake up in the morning.’ The council has offered her alternative housing but she says she would "rather die in my bed than go to a council house".

    The government cannot consider compensation because, they say, to do so would distort the insurance market and, worse, create a "perverse" speculation in coastal properties. It is widely felt, though, that a financial mechanism could easily be devised by which this climate ghettoisation of the poor and the weak could be avoided. Ellie Robinson at the National Trust thinks that "we need a fair and just way of adapting to change. And it is not fair for the burden to fall on the people who are on the whole least able to bear it. If, for example, central government were to lend local government the money to buy out the threatened houses, some time in advance, the local authority could get rental income from those houses as social housing and that rent would pay back the government loan. Or you could have a form of community insurance scheme, pooling the risk. There are all sorts of options. We need to think ahead."

    What seems like a strange and anomalous stretch of landscape now will soon become part of the mainstream. At Norfolk dinner parties, it is said, talk is of little except height above sea level. But no sight is more emblematic of the strange coastal future than Les and Avril Rial’s property at Intack, just outside Withernsea on the east coast of Yorkshire. Two houses, one in front of the other, 200 yards apart, look nearly identical: red-brick boxes, slate roofs, doors square in the middle. But there is something slightly spooky about them. The older house, built in 1907, is right on the cliff edge. Its windows have the bleak air of abandonment. Its back door opens on to a ragged yard, the far side of which is the raw wound of the clifftop. Pipes and concrete slabs stick out in mid-air. The sheds that were once there have mostly tumbled into the sea. Inside the house, water drips on to the furniture.

    Les, 59, was a teacher and in 1987 moved here from London. When he bought the farm for a knockdown £30,000 – it was a repossession – it was 70m from the edge. The council told him the cliff was receding at 1.2 to 1.5m a year. It would happily see them out. "My wife and I confidently expected to be buried at sea," he says. "I remember reading something by a native American who could not understand why white settlers would build houses that would last longer than they would." His now grown-up children, he says, will be able to make their own way in the world. As there is no compensation and no insurance available for houses that drop into the sea, they will have to.

    For 10 years the cliff scarcely moved. But in 1997 disaster struck. "We lost seven metres," Rial says, like a gambler remembering a bad night at the tables, "most of it in March." The cliff is 12m high, but in storms the house used to shake, and so much spray blew over the clifftop that a river of salt water ran past their door to the road. They used to lie awake at night feeling the sea destroying the earth beneath them. "We thought we could market it as an earthquake experience," Rial says solemnly.

    In 2000 they decided to make their own managed retreat, got planning permission for a new house, and began to abandon the old one. The new house (still not finished and costing "in excess of £100,000") is 200m from the cliff, the same distance the old house was when it was built in 1907. At three metres a year, they will have 60 years or so. "I’d be happy with 50," Rial says. "If it lasts that long, it will have cost me £40 a week." Was he here for the frisson of living on the edge? "God, no. I like a feeling of security in my life." Two houses may, in the future, be all the security many of us will have.

    · UK Climate Impacts Programme maps: www.ukcip.org.uk/resources/publications/documents/124.pdf

    Maps of places susceptible to flooding: www.hrwallingford.co.uk/downloads/projects/national%20appraisal.pdf