Category: Climate chaos

The atmosphere is to the earth as a layer of varnish is to a desktop globe. It is thin, fragile and essential for preserving the items on the surface.150 years of burning fossil fuel have overloaded the atmosphere to the point where the earth is ill. It now has a fever. Read the detailed article, Soothing Gaia’s Fever for an evocative account of that analogy. The items listed here detail progress on coordinating 6.5 billion people in the most critical project undertaken by humanity. 

  • Active or ‘Extremely Active’ Atlantic Hurricane Season Predicted for 2013

    Active or ‘Extremely Active’ Atlantic Hurricane Season Predicted for 2013

    May 24, 2013 — In its 2013 Atlantic hurricane season outlook issued today, NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center is forecasting an active or extremely active season this year.


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    For the six-month hurricane season, which begins June 1, NOAA’s Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook says there is a 70 percent likelihood of 13 to 20 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher), of which 7 to 11 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 3 to 6 major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5; winds of 111 mph or higher).

    These ranges are well above the seasonal average of 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes.

    “With the devastation of Sandy fresh in our minds, and another active season predicted, everyone at NOAA is committed to providing life-saving forecasts in the face of these storms and ensuring that Americans are prepared and ready ahead of time.” said Kathryn Sullivan, Ph.D., NOAA acting administrator. “As we saw first-hand with Sandy, it’s important to remember that tropical storm and hurricane impacts are not limited to the coastline. Strong winds, torrential rain, flooding, and tornadoes often threaten inland areas far from where the storm first makes landfall.”

    Three climate factors that strongly control Atlantic hurricane activity are expected to come together to produce an active or extremely active 2013 hurricane season. These are:

    • A continuation of the atmospheric climate pattern, which includes a strong west African monsoon, that is responsible for the ongoing era of high activity for Atlantic hurricanes that began in 1995;
    • Warmer-than-average water temperatures in the tropical Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea; and
    • El Niño is not expected to develop and suppress hurricane formation.

    “This year, oceanic and atmospheric conditions in the Atlantic basin are expected to produce more and stronger hurricanes,” said Gerry Bell, Ph.D., lead seasonal hurricane forecaster with NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. “These conditions include weaker wind shear, warmer Atlantic waters and conducive winds patterns coming from Africa.”

    NOAA’s seasonal hurricane outlook is not a hurricane landfall forecast; it does not predict how many storms will hit land or where a storm will strike. Forecasts for individual storms and their impacts will be provided throughout the season by NOAA’s National Hurricane Center.

    New for this hurricane season are improvements to forecast models, data gathering, and the National Hurricane Center communication procedure for post-tropical cyclones. In July, NOAA plans to bring online a new supercomputer that will run an upgraded Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting (HWRF) model that provides significantly enhanced depiction of storm structure and improved storm intensity forecast guidance.

    Also this year, Doppler radar data will be transmitted in real time from NOAA’s Hurricane Hunter aircraft. This will help forecasters better analyze rapidly evolving storm conditions, and these data could further improve the HWRF model forecasts by 10 to 15 percent.

    The National Weather Service has also made changes to allow for hurricane warnings to remain in effect, or to be newly issued, for storms like Sandy that have become post-tropical. This flexibility allows forecasters to provide a continuous flow of forecast and warning information for evolving or continuing threats.

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  • New environment laws increase flood risk

    New environment laws increase flood risk


    130509_Lokyer_wackers_bridge_jan2013Lockyer resident Diane Bruhn has produced evidence showing that clearing riverine trees increases sedimentation and increases flood risk. She said that the Queensland Government has used the recent floods as an excuse to repeal the sections of the water act controlling clearing of land in the riparian zone of Queensland’s rivers and streams.

    (more…)

  • Land clearing laws passed in Queensland

    NATURAL Resources Minister Andrew Cripps has rejected claims new vegetation clearing laws will damage the Great Barrier Reef and Moreton Bay.

    Mr Cripps last night described the claims as “alarmist rhetoric” based on inaccurate information.

    The comments were made during a debate on the wide-ranging Land, Water and Other Legislation Amendment Bill, which was passed in State Parliament on Thursday night (more…)

  • Taking the axe to Queensland’s tree clearing laws not such a bright idea

    vegetation clearing

    The Newman government is proposing amendments to the Vegetation Management Framework that would reduce protection of our native vegetation and allow the clearing of an estimated 700,000 hectares of Queensland’s endangered and ecologically significant forests and woodlands.

    “The proposed Vegetation Management Framework Amendment Bill causes us to have serious concerns about the future of Queensland’s terrestrial biodiversity and the future health of the Great Barrier Reef. If passed, this Bill would represent the biggest wind-back of environmental protection laws in Queensland’s history” said Anna McGuire, Coordinator of the Cairns and Far North Environment Centre. (more…)

  • Ireland under ‘tornado warning’

    Sunday, April 14, 2013 – 02:02 PM

    A level one tornado warning has been issued for Ireland today by a European storm forecaster.

    The European Storm Forecast Experiment – also known as Estofex – says a level one warning is the lowest warning out of three, and says there’s just a 5% probability of a tornado hitting the country.

    The news comes after Met Eireann earlier issued a weather warning, with wind speeds expected to reach over 110 kilometres per hour in some parts of the country today.

    Met Eireann says western coastal counties will be worst affected, with a risk of spot flooding also forecast.

    From the Irish Examiner

  • German institute pulls out of Canadian tar sands project

    German institute pulls out of Canadian tar sands project

    Helmholtz Association of German Research Centres drops out of research into tar sands impact over fears of reputational impact
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    Arthur Neslen for EurActiv, part of the Guardian Environment Network

    guardian.co.uk, Wednesday 20 March 2013 16.24 GMT

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    One of Syncrude Canada Ltd’s tailing ponds at a tar sands development in Alberta, Canada Photograph: Veronique de Viguerie/Getty Images

    Germany’s largest and most prestigious research institute has pulled out of a Canadian government-funded CAN$25 million research project into sustainable solutions to tar sands pollution, citing fears for its environmental reputation.

    As many as 20 scientists at the world-famous Helmholtz Association of German Research Centres have ceased involvement in the Helmholtz Alberta Initiative (HAI), after a moratorium on contacts was declared last month.

    “It was seen as a risk for our reputation,” Professor Frank Messner, Helmholtz UFZ’s head of staff said over the phone from his offices in Leipzig.

    “As an environmental research centre we have an independent role as an honest broker and doing research in this constellation could have had reputational problems for us, especially after Canada’s withdrawal from the Kyoto Protocol,” he said.

    The HAI had been tasked with upgrading bitumen and lignite coal to reduce energy consumption, and finding ways to deal with overspill from the tar sands industry such as ‘tail ponds’- toxic lakes that now cover up to 176 square kilometers of Alberta.

    But in reply to a written question from the German socialist MP Frank Schwabe, a statement from the country’s education and research ministry on February 20 said that a moratorium had been imposed on collaboration, pending an independent assessment into its environmental bona fides which will conclude in June.

    “The assessment evaluates whether a project conforms to sustainability principles,” Thomas Rachel, the education and research minister said.

    “The purpose of the procedure is to ensure that sustainability criteria are being adhered to and that the research carried out as part of HAI can contribute significantly to the improvement of sustainability outcomes.”

    The suspension of research ties follows intense debate within Germany’s scientific and political communities, and will not go unnoticed in Ottawa.

    “It’s a clear signal that Canada’s energy and climate policy is not accepted by the international community, especially Germany,” Messner said.

    The EU is inching forward plans to assign fuel from the controversial tar sands a high-polluting tag under its Fuel Quality Directive, which mandates a 6% decarbonisation of Europe’s transport fuels by 2020, as measured against a 2010 baseline.

    Canada has the world’s third largest crude reserves – after Venezuela and Saudi Arabia – overwhelmingly in the form of tar sands.

    Mining the sands currently involves the use of huge amounts of water and chemical solvents to extract oil from bitumen, a viscous substance found in sand and clay. The extra energy required by the process of steam injection, strip mining – removing large stretches of overlying soil – and refining is a turbo-booster to CO2 emissions.

    Canada’s tar sands deposits contain twice the amount of carbon dioxide emitted by global oil use in human history, according to James Hansen, the head of NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies.

    “If Canada proceeds, and we do nothing, it will be game over for the climate,” Hansen famously wrote. It would elevate global temperatures to levels not seen since the Pliocene era, more than 2.5 million years ago, he added.

    Environmentalists say that by 2020, a planned expansion in Alberta’s tar sands operation would sprawl to an area the size of Austria, the Netherlands and Switzerland combined.

    Europe imports very little of the unconventional fuel but Canada fears that an EU ruling will influence other markets, such as the US and China and that has set the scene for a lobbyist Punch and Judy, in which science has often been used as a stick.

    A 2011 report commissioned by the EU from Adam Brandt, an Assistant Professor at Stanford University, found that the lifecycle emissions of fuel from tar sands – also known as oil sands – were between 12-40% higher than conventional crude, with the most likely barrel being 22% more carbon intensive.

    Brandt wrote that tar sands were “significantly different enough from conventional oil emissions that regulatory frameworks should address this discrepancy with pathway-specific emissions factors that distinguish between oil sands and conventional oil processes.”

    That led the Alberta Petroleum Marketing Commission to task a rival paper to Jacobs Consultancy, which found that output from better-performing tar sands was “within 12% of the upper range of carbon intensity for diesel from representative crude oils refined Europe.”

    On paper, this should still be enough to have it assigned a high-polluting default value, albeit by slightly less than the 107 grams of CO2 per megajoule – compared to 87.5g for conventional crude – in the EU’s Fuel Quality Directive.

    But Canada’s interpretation has been different.

    Speaking at a press briefing in Brussels in January, Alberta’s environment minister Diana McQueen told journalists: “We look at the Jacobs study and they said that the oil sands should not be discriminated against and be taken out of that basket [of conventional crudes].”

    Canada says it is being discriminated against because emissions from its tar sands operations are more transparent and better-reported than other unconventional fuel sources such as shale gas.

    “We ask why the oil sands from Alberta would be singled out and unfairly targeted, especially if the intent is truly about climate change and reducing emissions in the EU,” McQueen said.

    Canada has previously threatened to launch a suit against the EU at the World Trade Organisation if it proceeds with the Fuel Quality Directive as planned, and has raised the issue in the context of a planned $20 billion EU-Canada Free Trade Agreement.

    Within Canada though, it is often climate scientists that say they are being persecuted against.

    An atmosphere of patriotism has been stirred around tar sands by a massive PR campaign involving advertisements on national TV and in cinemas.

    Environmental and climate science budgets have been axed, and one of the world’s top Arctic research stations for monitoring global warming has been closed.

    Hundreds of scientists have lost their jobs, and those that remain have been forbidden from talking to the media without a government minder present.

    As such, environmentalists welcomed the pushback from Germany. “A number of high level EU decision makers have stated that the Canadian lobbying effort goes beyond what is considered acceptable,” Darek Urbaniak of Friends of the Earth told EurActiv.

    “The fact that a renowned scientific institute from Germany has decided to pull out of cooperation with Alberta is a further blow to this strategy.”
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