Warm oceans drive hottest year on record with more to come, US agencies say

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January 17, 2015 – 7:08PM

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Peter Hannam
Peter Hannam
Environment Editor, The Sydney Morning Herald

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Hottest spot in NSW

Unusually warm seas helped drive annual global temperatures to a record level in 2014 and are likely to ensure this year has a similarly hot start, climate experts say.

Two leading US agencies, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and NASA, have declared last year was the hottest in data going back to 1880, adding to an earlier confirmation by Japan.
Most of the world was warmer than average last year.

Most of the world was warmer than average last year. Photo: NOAA

Globally, average land and sea-surface temperatures were 0.69 degrees above the 20th century average, “easily surpassing” the previous high set in 2005 and 2010 by 0.04 degrees, NOAA said.
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Record temperatures were also recorded for six separate months, including December, while sea temperatures broke records for seven consecutive months from May and November.

“The biggest standout was the warmth of the oceans,” said Blair Trewin, senior climatologist at Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology. “The year was pretty much warm everywhere.”
How the world has warmed since 1985. (Arctic, Antarctic omitted for limited data.)

How the world has warmed since 1985. (Arctic, Antarctic omitted for limited data.) Photo: NOAA

The western Pacific and a region of the Indian Ocean between Madagascar and the WA coast were among the areas posting record annual heat. Land temperatures had their fourth hottest year.

Last year was the 38th consecutive year that annual global temperatures were above average, with all of the 10 warmest years occurring since 1998. Anyone born after February 1985 will not have experienced a cooler-than-average month globally, NOAA said.

“While the ranking of individual years can be affected by chaotic weather patterns, the long-term trends are attributable to drivers of climate change that right now are dominated by human emissions of greenhouse gases,” Gavin Schmidt, director of NASA’s Goddard Institute of Space Studies, said.
2014 ended on a particularly warm note, versus other record years.

2014 ended on a particularly warm note, versus other record years. Photo: NOAA

The latest annual data will likely add pressure on nations due to meet in December in Paris to agree on a global treaty to halt the growth of carbon emissions and keep temperature increases to within 2 degrees of pre-industrial levels, or a bit more than double the increase so far.

A papal encyclical from Pope Francis calling for climate action is also expected in March or April.

Greens leader Christine Milne said: “Climate change is turning up the heat around the world and is risking ecosystems, economies and lives.”
The warming trajectory, including from the extreme El Nino year of 1998.

The warming trajectory, including from the extreme El Nino year of 1998. Photo: NOAA

“We need to do so much more to reduce pollution and address dangerous global warming, not less,” Senator Milne said, describing the Abbott government’s direct action plan to pay polluters to cut back as “pathetic”.

A spokesman for Greg Hunt, though, said the government believes “clearly and categorically in the science and is committed to and will achieve its targets”, in particular the pledge to cut 2000 level emissions by 5 per cent by 2020.

“Labor gave Australia the worst of both worlds with higher electricity prices and an utterly failed emissions policy,” the spokesman said. “The ALP must make clear what will be the electricity slug they are proposing for Australian families and pensioners.”

Labor acting shadow minister for climate change Anthony Albanese said Australia had gone from a “front runner” on climate policy to be “the first country to go backwards on climate change” under Tony Abbott.

“He refused to talk about climate change at the G20, he rejected the invitation to attend the UN Climate Summit [in September last year] and he sent fellow climate sceptic Andrew Robb to watch over Julie Bishop at the climate conference in Lima,” Mr Albanese said.

Warming up

Australia’s warmest year in records dating from 1910 was 2013, while last year was ranked third warmest – making it easily the warmest 24 months.

The local and global warmth in 2014 came despite neutral El Nino conditions. During typical El Nino years, the central and eastern equatorial Pacific warms compared with the west, with the ocean taking up less heat.

“The last time an annual temperature record was broken with no warm-phase El Niño conditions present during the year was in 1990,” NOAA said.

Since Pacific conditions remain near El-Nino thresholds, however, the odds favour global temperatures remaining well above average for at least the first half of 2015, the bureau’s Dr Trewin said.

Many regions posted their hottest year on record, with the World Meteorological Organisation estimating that 2014 was Europe’s warmest in at least the past 500 years, beating 2007 by 0.3 degrees.

Not all regions, though, had a warm year, with central North America among the areas posting cooler-than-average conditions. Canada had its coldest November-March period since records began in 1948, NOAA said, citing local observations.

Global annual temperatures have increased at an average rate of 0.06 degrees per decade since 1880, with the rate accelerating to 0.16 degrees per decade since 1970, NOAA said.

“At a global scale, you’ve had quite marked changes since the mid-70s,” Dr Trewin said, noting that was about the time the background warming signal “swamped the influence” of airborne pollutants such as sulphates, which had been acting as a brake on temperature increases.

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