Category: General news

Managing director of Ebono Institute and major sponsor of The Generator, Geoff Ebbs, is running against Kevin Rudd in the seat of Griffith at the next Federal election. By the expression on their faces in this candid shot it looks like a pretty dull campaign. Read on

  • 2014 will be the hottest on record: climate scientists

    7:58am December 1, 2014

    2014 will be the hottest on record: climate scientists

    Significant climate anomalies and events for October 2014. (NOAA)

    Significant climate anomalies and events for October 2014. (NOAA)

    Nicholas McCallum

    Nicholas McCallum

    This year is shaping up to be the hottest ever recorded in the 130 years since record keeping began, according to the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

    With two calendar months remaining for 2014, data collected by the NOAA shows average global temperatures across the globe have been 0.68 degrees Celsius higher than the 20th Century’s average of 14.1 degrees C.

    The data collected encompasses land and ocean temperatures, finding the former has risen by almost 2 degrees more than the 20th Century average — an important scientific benchmark.

    Climate scientists have long posited that a rise in average global temperature rise of 2-3 degrees would prove disastrous for the planet, leading catastrophic weather and storm systems, glacial and polar icecap melts, a higher sea level, increased flooding and storm surges and prolonged droughts.

    Average land and ocean temperatures, October 2014. (NOAA)

    Average land and ocean temperatures, October 2014. (NOAA)

    “Record warmth for the year-to-date was particularly notable across much of northern and western Europe, parts of Far East Russia, and large areas of the northeastern and western equatorial Pacific Ocean,” the NOAA said.

    “It is also notable that record warmth was observed in at least some areas of every continent and major ocean basin around the world,” the agency added.

    Several countries already recorded the hottest October on record this year with temperatures 2 degrees higher than the last century’s average including Australia, Germany, France, Switzerland and Sweden.

    The data is backed-up by climate scientists at the UK’s Climatic Research Unit at the University of East Anglia.

    “2014 is more likely than not to be the warmest year,” said Professor Tim Osborn.

    However, the central US has recorded a below-average temperature due to the fierce winter storm and colder weather.

    The Australian Bureau of Meteorology confirmed in January that 2013 was the country’s hottest year since 1910, setting new records for the hottest day and the hottest month among many others.

    Source: CNN,
    Author: Nicholas McCallum, Approving editor: Simon Black

    © ninemsn 2014

    Read more at http://www.9news.com.au/world/2014/12/01/07/57/2014-will-be-the-hottest-on-record-climate-scientists#sdMhOZ5cA0ekVZgk.99

  • [New post] Vic 2014 – the complicated, confusing Legislative Council

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    [New post] Vic 2014 – the complicated, confusing Legislative Council

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    The Tally Room <donotreply@wordpress.com>

    7:04 PM (57 minutes ago)

    to me

    New post on The Tally Room

    Vic 2014 – the complicated, confusing Legislative Council

    by Ben Raue

    The current count in the Legislative Council is extremely complicated, with both major parties falling a long way short of a majority. In this post, I run through the latest in each region’s count.

    But first, a summary. Labor is going to find it very hard to construct a majority. It is possible that they will require both the Greens and an alliance of small right-wingers. However it’s also possible that extra gains by Labor and vaguely progressive groups like the Sex Party and Vote 1 Local Jobs will make it slightly easier, but still very complicated.

    Overall, the ALP is on track to win at least 13 seats, with the Liberal Party winning 13, the Greens winning four, and the Shooters, Sex Party and DLP each winning one.

    In addition there are five races that are too close to call. In short, these are:

    • East Metro – Labor vs Greens
    • North Vic – Labor vs Country Alliance vs Shooters (two seats)
    • South Metro – Liberal vs Sex Party
    • West Vic – Shooters vs Palmer United vs Vote 1 Local Jobs (one seat)

    At the moment, the combined vote of Labor and the Greens adds up to eighteen seats, with 21 needed to pass legislation. Labor could win a nineteenth centre-left seat in North Vic. If they do so, they will still need two other minor party votes. If the Shooters win in Western Victoria or Northern Victoria they would be able to bring the government up to 21 votes, but it would be hard to get the Greens and Shooters to work together.

    However there is an alternative scenario where Labor and the Greens could govern with the Sex Party if they hold on to their lead in North Metro and overtake the Liberal Party in South Metro, or possibly by working with Vote 1 Local Jobs if they win a seat in Western Victoria and Labor or the Sex Party fails in Northern Victoria or South Metro respectively.

    Please come along for the ride

    Eastern Metropolitan

    The Liberal Party has retained their three seats, and Labor has retained one of their two seats. The final seat is a race between Labor MLC Brian Tee and Greens candidate Samantha Dunn.

    In the count, the first two Liberals and the first Labor candidate were elected on primary votes, with the third Liberal and the second Labor on about 75% of a quota and the Greens on about 65% of a quota. Through most of the count, minor party preferences funnel into the Australian Christians and the Voluntary Euthanasia Party.

    Voluntary Euthanasia preferences mostly flow to the Greens, taking Dunn close to a quota, with some going to the Liberal Party. The exclusion of the Christians elects both the Liberal Party and the Greens. The Greens just narrowly pass a quota, and presumably most of the 0.2 quota surplus sitting with the Liberal Party would flow to the ALP, so the margin of victory for the Greens on current votes is about 2.5% of a quota, which is definitely vulnerable.

    Eastern Victoria

    The result in Eastern Victoria seems reasonably clear – the ALP has retained both of their seats, while the Coalition has retained two of their three seats. The third Coalition candidate – Liberal MLC Andrew Ronalds – has lost his seat to the Shooters and Fishers candidate Jeffrey Bourman.

    The second Labor candidate’s margin of victory over the Greens is 25% of a quota – which is probably enough to not change.

    Northern Metropolitan

    In Northern Metropolitan, the ALP has retained their two seats, the Greens have retained their one seat and the Liberal Party has held one of their two seats. The fifth seat is likely to go to the Sex Party, with an outside chance for Family First. The Sex Party’s current margin over Family First for the final seat is about 17% of a quota, which will likely be enough to hold on.

    Northern Victoria

    The ALP, Liberal Party and Nationals have all retained one seat in this region. The final two seats are a race between the Shooters and Fishers, the Australian Country Alliance and Labor.

    On the current count, the Shooters are elected on Coalition preferences, and then Labor preferences elect the Country Alliance over the Greens. If Labor overtakes the Greens they would win on Greens preferences. This gap currently is about 0.8% of the total vote.

    South Eastern Metropolitan

    The ALP and the Liberal Party have each retained two seats. The fifth seat (currently held by sitting Labor MLC Lee Tarlamis) is up for grabs. That seat is likely to go to the Greens’ Nina Springle, with small chances for the Sex Party or Labor.

    At the key count, the Greens are on 52% of a quota, with Labor on 47% and the Sex Party on 37%. The Sex Party’s preferences then push the Greens well ahead of Labor, and the Greens then win on Labor’s preferences.

    Southern Metropolitan

    The Liberal Party has definitely won two seats, and Labor and the Greens one each. The Liberal Party is likely to win the final seat, but it could go to the Sex Party.

    Western Metropolitan

    Western Metropolitan looks set to produce a clear result: two Labor, one Liberal, one Green, one DLP.

    Western Victoria

    The ALP and the Liberal Party have each retained their two seats, with the third Coalition candidate, Nationals MLC David O’Brien, definitely losing his seat.

    The race for the final seat is wide open. Tom Clement’s calculator gives a 57.5% chance to the Shooters, a 19.2% chance to Vote 1 Local Jobs and a 17.1% chance to the Palmer United Party. Currently Antony Green’s calculator is predicting a win for Vote 1 Local Jobs, as the Shooters are currently on track to fall behind the LDP by 38 votes in a key round and not make it far enough to win. If the Shooters overtake the LDP, that will change.

    Ben Raue | November 30, 2014 at 6:04 pm | Tags: Victoria 2014 | Categories: Uncategorized | URL: http://wp.me/ppI95-63J
    Comment    See all comments
  • Killer heat waves

    Killer heat waves

    Heat waves have killed more Australians than all other natural hazards combined. (iStockphoto/Utopia_88 )

    Heat waves have killed more Australians than all other natural hazards combined. (iStockphoto/Utopia_88 )

    Most Australians would remember the terrible “Black Saturday” bushfires of 2009 in Victoria.

    Those awesome bushfires killed 173 people. But what most Australians don’t realise is that the crippling heat wave associated with Black Saturday killed more than double that – 374 people.

    In fact, heat waves have killed more Australians than all other natural hazards combined. At least 4,500 Australians have died from heat waves since the year 1900.

    In the European heat wave of 2003, some 70,000 people died. The Russian heat wave of 2010 killed around 55,000 people.

    First, what exactly is a heat wave?

    Well, the definition varies depending on the country, and sometimes, varies from one state to another within that country – such as in the USA.

    A fairly well-accepted definition comes from the World Meteorological Organisation. They start off by setting a baseline of the 30 years between 1961 and 1990. Pick one day in each of those 30 years, say the 27th of January. Add up the 30 maximum temperatures, divide by 30, and then you have the Average Maximum Temperature – for that day.

    Do the same for the next four days, for the same location. According to the World Meteorological Organisation, a heat wave is when you have five days in a row, each with a daily maximum temperature five-or-more Centigrade degrees higher than the Average Maximum Temperature.

    Second, what causes a heat wave?

    Basically, it happens when a high pressure system in the atmosphere, instead of moving across the landscape, stays stuck in one location – for days or even weeks. In the mega-heat waves that killed tens of thousands in Europe and Russia, things were made worse by a vicious positive feedback loop between ultra-dry soil, and unexpectedly powerful high-pressure systems in the lower atmosphere. This combination trapped the heat. The heat couldn’t dissipate overnight – so the next morning started off as hot as the previous afternoon.

    Third, how can you tell if a specific death is caused by a heat wave? Well, it’s hard. How you tolerate heat depends on what you are used to, and how fit you are. If you do an autopsy, there is nothing specific that points to a heat wave being the cause of death.

    But you know that something very bad is happening if dead bodies start to pile up. In the heat waves of Europe in 2003, Victoria in 2009, Russia in 2010, and Victoria again in 2014, the morgues filled up. There was simply no more room for the dead bodies coming in. The overflow had to be stored in mortuaries, universities and funeral parlours.

    Then, to work out how many the heat wave killed, you call in the statisticians. They compare the number of deaths during the heat wave with the number of deaths over the same time period in previous years. By the way, in Australia, the most lethal day for a heat wave death is the day after Australia Day, the 27th of January.

    But what exactly kills somebody in a heat wave?

    Amazingly, we still don’t fully understand what’s going on. In Paris alone in 2003, some 15,000 died – overwhelmingly elderly women living alone in the upper levels of walk-up apartments.

    Excessive heat seems to be especially harmful to the very young and the very old, and to those with chronic diseases and mental illnesses. Other risk factors include being obese, very malnourished, very unfit – and drugs, both legal and illegal. Dehydration combined with alcohol consumption makes the situation worse – as does the loss of air-conditioning in poorly designed houses when the electrical power grid crashes.

    I’m sorry, but I’m now going to have to use a fancy statistical phrase – it’s the “Standard Deviation”. It measures how close your data points are to the average. The average, plus or minus one standard deviation, will capture about 68% of your population. The average, plus or minus two standard deviations, will enclose about 95.5%. For three standard deviations, you’re getting about 99.7%. So anything outside three standard deviations is quite unlikely.

    Back in 1961, heat waves with temperatures three standard deviations above the average covered about 1% of our planet’s land area. By 2010, this had risen to about 5%. By 2020, it’s expected to rise to 10% – and for 2040, to 20%. In other words, before the middle of this century, when heat waves do arise, they will cover about one fifth of all the land area on Earth.

    So watch it – heat can pack a powerful punch, and can even literally knock the living daylights out of you.

    Tags: disasters-and-accidents, science-and-technology

    Published 25 November 2014

    © 2014 Karl S. Kruszelnicki Pty Ltd

  • When a Rugby icon, Farmer and Philosopher walk onto a Coal Mine… 350org

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    When a Rugby icon, Farmer and Philosopher walk onto a Coal Mine…

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    Josh Creaser – 350.org Australia josh.creaser@350.org.au via list.350.org 

    9:00 AM (27 minutes ago)

    to me

    Dear friend,

    No, this isn’t the beginning of a cheesy joke – it’s the start of a truly inspiring story.

    Right now I’m with Former Wallabies Captain and Canberra Brumbies player David Pocock, fifth generation farmer Rick Laird, ANU Philosophy lecturer Bruin Christensen, and six fellow Canberrans, taking powerful peaceful action at the Leard Blockade. Together, we have shut down one of Whitehaven Coal’s super diggers and sent a clear message:

    We, Canberrans stand in solidarity with the Maules Creek community in the fight against Whitehaven Coal’s damaging coal expansion plans.

    We have taken this action to call out the ACT Government and its continued investment in Whitehaven Coal and another 70 of the worst fossil fuel companies on the planet. It’s simply not right for a Government that professes to champion climate leadership to also invest in dangerous coal companies.

    The ACT Government has a decision to make – divest from fossil fuel companies like Whitehaven or prepare to see more community action like today’s.

    You can add you voice by signing our petition for a Fossil Free ACT today.

    And then click on the images below to LIKE and SHARE them on Facebook:

     

    To be honest, none of us wanted to spend our Sunday doing this. We’d rather be at home with family and friends. But when companies purely motivated by profit can trash endangered forest, ruin cultural sites and further risk the climate, you can’t sit idly by. You have to do something.

    You can do something by signing this petition for a Fossil Free ACT and sharing this story on Facebook. Together let’s send Whitehaven and the ACT Government a powerful message!

    Warm wishes,

    Josh for 350 Canberra and 350 Australia

    P.S. Click here to tell ACT Treasure Andrew Barr to divest from Whitehaven today!


    350.org is building a global climate movement.You can connect with us on Facebook, follow us on Twitter, and become a sustaining donor to keep this movement strong and growing.

  • Greens claim victory in seat of Melbourne

    Victoria Decides

    9:14pm November 29, 2014

    Greens claim victory in seat of Melbourne

    Australian Greens deputy leader Adam Bandt and Victorian Greens candidate for the seat of Melbourne Ellen Sandell. (AAP)

    Australian Greens deputy leader Adam Bandt and Victorian Greens candidate for the seat of Melbourne Ellen Sandell. (AAP)

    AAP

    AAP

    The Greens have claimed the seat of Melbourne in the Victorian election, the party’s first seat in the state’s lower house, with Ellen Sandell expected to win.

    Ms Sandell was loudly cheered as she thanked the party faithful for their support in winning the Greens’ first ever lower house Victorian seat at underground inner city laneway bar.

    “This victory doesn’t belong to me at all, it belongs to all that knocked on doors, made calls and spent your evenings, your nights working for the Greens,” Ms Sandell, 29, told those gathered at a bar in the Melbourne CBD on Saturday night.

    “I’ll work every day starting tomorrow for a fairer society and a cleaner economy.”

    The Greens, with 26 per cent of the vote counted, had 51 per cent on a two-party preferred basis, putting the party on track to remove Labor’s Jennifer Kanis.

    “You have told us that you do not want an $18 billion toll road ripping up our city, instead you want a 21st century public transport network. You have told us that you want politicians who actually have a climate change and environment policy,” Ms Sandell said.

    The Victorian leader of the Greens and upper house member, Greg Barber, declared the victory was down to a grassroots campaign.

    “We did it! And we did it with a bottom up, grassroots, one vote at a time, door-to-door campaign and everyone of you participated in that and you know that,” he said.

    The Greens are also in with a chance to take Richmond from Labor.

    Federal Melbourne MP Adam Bandt and senators Sarah Hanson-Young and Christine Milne were in the bar to celebrate the victory.

    Mr Barber said the Greens hoped to win the balance of power in the upper house as well as other lower house seats.

    He promised to try to stop the sale of the Port of Melbourne and redirect federal funds for the East West Link to public transport.

    Green supporters were in a giddy mood and turned up the music, continuing the partying on a historic night for the party.

    © AAP 2014

    Read more at http://www.9news.com.au/national/2014/11/29/09/58/greens-hope-for-vic-power-balance#WyUSme20kkm31Dv3.99

  • Victoria’s next premier Daniel Andrews thanks his ‘secret weapon’ as he claims victory

    Victoria Decides

    10:44pm November 29, 2014

    Victoria’s next premier Daniel Andrews thanks his ‘secret weapon’ as he claims victory

    November 29, 2014: Victorian premier-elect Daniel Andrews thanks his “secret weapon” – his wife Cath – as he claims victory in the 2014 election.

    9NEWS

    9NEWS

    Victorian Labor leader Daniel Andrews is set to become the 48th Premier of Victoria, thanking his wife Catherine, who he referred to as his “secret weapon” and his “best friend”.

    Mr Andrews addressed Labor Party supporters at the Mulgrave Country Club to confirm incumbent Premier Denis Napthine had conceded.

    IN PICTURES: Meet Daniel Andrews, the new Victorian Premier

    The Labor leader’s victory is a sign of concern for Coalition Prime Minister Tony Abbott, 9NEWS Political Editor Laurie Oakes has said.

    During final discussions on the 9NEWS election panel, Mr Oakes said “federal issues, federal personalities were a factor” and that “Tony Abbott and his government were a millstone around Denis Napthine’s neck”.

    November 29, 2014: Nine’s political editor Laurie Oakes says the Victorian election result is a warning sign for the Abbott government.

    November 29, 2014: Victorian premier-elect Daniel Andrews accepts victory for the Labor party at their headquarters.

    “Victorian Liberals say it privately, they’re furious about the hug, when Tony Abbott hugged Denis Napthine he earned the enmity of virtually the entire state Liberal party,” he said.

    However, Mr Andrews’ victory speech focused mostly on state issues.

    “On behalf of all Victorians I want to thank Denis Napthine for his gracious concession,” he said.

    “I wish Denis Napthine, his wife Peggy and their family all the very best for the future.”

    Mr Andrews then turned his attention to his party’s policies and election promises.

    “Victorians today have voted for better local roads and better public transport,” he said.

    “Victorians have voted to end the war on our ambos.”

    Do you think Victoria has made the right choice?

    Opposition leader Daniel Andrews and his wife Cath. (AAP)

    November 29, 2014: Federal opposition leader Bill Shorten speaks to Nine’s Seb Costello on arrival at the Victorian Labor headquarters.

    Mr Andrews said Victorians had voted to get Victoria back to work.

    “Work will begin tomorrow because I will not waste even a single day on delivering each of the commitments we made,” he continued.

    “I will not accept four more years like the last four and neither will the people of this great state.”

    Do you support Labor’s plan to scrap Melbourne’s East West link?

    Marchers protest the East West link. (AAP)

    November 29, 2014: Former Premier Denis Napthine concedes defeat in the Victorian election.

    Do you support Labor’s plan for 24 hour pharmacies in Victoria?

    He then thanked the people in his electorate of Mulgrave, as well as his party colleagues.

    Mr Andrews made special mention of his wife Cath, who had been dubbed his “secret weapon” during the campaign.

    “I think in many respects she is our secret weapon,” he said.

    “This campaign has been a joy, it has been such a humbling process to move throughout the community and to be able to do it with my best friend has been so special, Cath, thank you so much.”

    Dr Napthine had conceded defeat during an address to the Liberal Party faithful at the Sofitel Hotel in Melbourne.

    At 10pm Dr Napthine addressed the waiting crowd to acknowledge he had called Mr Andrews to congratulate him and officially concede defeat.

    November 29, 2014: Former premier Denis Napthine ends his concession speech at the Victorian Liberal party headquarters by announcing he will step down as leader.

    “The figures clearly indicate there has been a swing to the Labor party and they will have a majority in the legislative assembly,” he said.

    Dr Napthine made a point of congratulating Mr Andrews on his victory.

    “Can I say at the same time I am extremely proud to have had the great privilege of being the Premier of this great state of Victoria,” he continued.

    “This is the greatest state in the best country in the world and I am particularly proud that today in 2014 Victoria is a better, stronger, more financially secure state then when we came to government four years ago.”

    Dr Napthine also used his speech to draw attention to the changes and achievements made while he was Premier.

    He also thanked Coalition candidates and their families for the support they had shown the government.

    After thanking his own family, Dr Napthine announced he would be stepping down as leader of the Liberal Party.

    “It is time for renewal, it is time for change,” he said.

    At 8.40pm 9NEWS Political Editor Laurie Oakes called an election victory for Daniel Andrews and the Victorian Labor party.

    November 29, 2014: Independent MP for Frankston Geoff Shaw has received a swift “kick” after losing his seat during the Victorian Election.

    Who do you think is a more trustworthy leader for Victoria?

    It marks the first time in 50 years a first-term government has failed to win re-election in Victoria.

    But Dr Napthine was not the first person on election day to officially be shown the door.

    Former Liberal MP turned Independent Geoff Shaw was the first to officially be given “The Boot” by Mr Oakes.

    Introducing The Boot: Laurie Oakes gets a kick out of Nine’s new election technology

    November 29, 2014: Nine’s political commentators quiz Independent MP for Frankston Geoff Shaw on the night of the Victorian Election.

    Australian Greens deputy leader Adam Bandt and Victorian Greens candidate for the seat of Melbourne Ellen Sandell. (AAP)

    Australian Greens deputy leader Adam Bandt and Victorian Greens candidate for the seat of Melbourne Ellen Sandell. (AAP)

    Mr Shaw had spoken with 9NEWS about becoming an Independent and his hopes of holding on to the seat of Frankston.

    Just after 8pm Mr Shaw conceded defeat.

    Greens candidate Ellen Sandell is set to become the party’s first state MP, pushing ahead in the seat of Melbourne.

    The party is also strongly in contention in Richmond, Brunswick and the hotly-contested seat of Prahran, where sitting Liberal member Clem Newton-Brown is likely to become one of the higher-profile MPs to lose their seat.

    Celebrity candidate, rocker Tex Perkins, won nearly four percent of the vote in Albert Park, likely to be retained by Labor’s Martin Foley.

    The exclusive Nine Election Day Galaxy poll has predicted victory for the Victorian Labor Party. (9NEWS)

    The exclusive Nine Election Day Galaxy poll has predicted victory for the Victorian Labor Party. (9NEWS)

    November 29, 2014: The exclusive 9NEWS Election Day Galaxy poll has predicted a win for the Victorian Labor Party in tonight’s election.

    Mr Perkins’ platform was almost solely based on saving the historic Palais Theatre in St Kilda and raising awareness for its plight.

    “I knew I didn’t have to do much to make a difference – any percentage was going to make a difference,” he told Fairfax Media from Queensland, having reportedly flown up this morning.

    For full coverage of the Victorian election, visit http://www.9news.com.au/victoriadecides

    Who do you trust to manage Victoria’s economy?

    Read more at http://www.9news.com.au/national/2014/11/29/16/59/exclusive-nine-election-day-poll-predicts-victory-for-victorian-labor#TCW177MHjqSVBjCf.99