Category: General news

Managing director of Ebono Institute and major sponsor of The Generator, Geoff Ebbs, is running against Kevin Rudd in the seat of Griffith at the next Federal election. By the expression on their faces in this candid shot it looks like a pretty dull campaign. Read on

  • Opposition supports freedom of speech. No to Regulator

    The federal opposition does not support a super regulator for the Australian media because that would repress free speech, opposition communications spokesperson Malcolm Turnbull sa lateline

    A five-month-long independent media inquiry, headed by former Federal Court judge Ray Finkelstein, recommended that a government-funded News Media Council should be created to regulate print, online, radio and television news in Australia.

    But Mr Turnbull told the ABC’s Lateline program he would not support the recommendation, saying the country should be able to trust competition and a diversity of voices to regulate its media.

    “I think it would be bad for freedom of speech; it would repress freedom of speech,” Mr Turnbull told Lateline on Friday night.

    “We don’t support the recommendation; it (the report) only had one recommendation of any consequence, which was to set up a new super regulator for news media, a news media council, and we’ve said we don’t support that.”

  • Solar irradiance (HANSEN)

     

    Solar Irradiance

    Also available in PDF.

    Also available in PDF.

    Data source: For 1976/01/05 to 2011/02/02 Physikalisch Meteorologisches Observatorium Davos, World Radiation Center and for 2011/02/03 to 2012/02/22 University of Colorado Solar Radiation & Climate Experiment. Data are matched using the 2010/02/03 to 2011/02/02 period. (Last modified: 2012/02/29)

    Long-Term Sunspot Numbers

    Also available in PDF. Data source: SIDC – Solar Influences Data Analysis Center (Data are through January 2012, Last modified: 2012/03/01)

    For daily sunspot numbers see NOAA page or spaceweather.com page

  • Bob Carr and how senate vacancies are filled ( Antony Green )

    March 04, 2012

    Bob Carr and how Senate Vacancies are Filled

    I’ve been asked numerous times in the last week how Bob Carr can be appointed to the Senate. Shouldn’t there be a vote or a by-election?

    The answer is there are no Senate by-elections. Since Federation Senators have been elected for fixed terms from each state as a whole, and with such an electoral arrangement, by-elections are impractical. As the state’s house, the Constitution granted the power to fill casual vacancies to the states.

    This issue of how to fill vacancies became especially important after the introduction of proportional representation for Senate elections in 1949. Conventions developed for the filling of casual vacancies by representatives from the same party. This was seen as a way of preserving the Senate balance of party representation as chosen by the electorate.

    However, this convention fell apart in the white hot politics of the Whitlam government 1972-75, resulting in a constitutional change in 1977 that ensures casual Senate vacancies must be filled by the nominee of the party for which the departing Senator was originally elected.

    That is why we can be certain that Bob Carr will replace Mark Arbib as a Labor Party Senator for New South Wales.

    Vacancies are filled though appointment by joint sittings of the relevant state or territory parliament. The party for which the departing member was elected puts forward one candidate to the joint sitting, and the state or territory parliament accepts the one nomination.

    There is no convention that a party must put forward multiple candidates. There is no way the parliament can put forward a candidate that is not the accepted nominee of the party whose member retired.

    There is only one loophole. The Parliament can fail to appoint anyone. This arose in 1987 when the Tasmanian Parliament failed to appoint a replacement for Labor Senator Don Grimes.

    Details of 1987 Tasmanian incident, and other cases of delayed appointments, can be found in the relevant chapter of Odgers Senate Practice.

    The requirement that a replacement comes from the same party was inserted in the Constitution in 1977, one of only eight changes ever made to the Constitution. Before 1977, it was only a convention that replacements come from the same party. There were also problems with the pre-1977 provisions because federal governments were able to engineer casual vacancies that altered the number of members elected at the next Senate election.

    These problems were highlighted in the three years of the Whitlam government. First there was the Whitlam government’s appointment of DLP Senator Vince Gair as Ambassador to Ireland and the Holy See, a deliberate attempt to engineer an extra vacancy for the 1974 Queensland Senate election.

    Then in 1975 there were two breaches of the convention about appointing a replacement Senator from the same party.

    First NSW Premier Tom Lewis declined to appoint a Labor replacement on the elevation of Senator Lionel Murphy to the High Court. Lewis instead nominated Albury Mayor Cleaver Bunton, describing him as a ‘political neuter’ when he meant neutral.

    Then following the death of Senator Bert Milliner, the Bjelke-Petersen government insisted Labor put forward three names from which the Queensland parliament could choose. Labor declined and nominated Mal Colston, and the Bjelke-Petersen government nominated and elected Pat Field, a furniture polisher by trade and a Labor Party branch member. Field was almost unknown within the Labor Party. He opposed the Whitlam government, was expelled from the Labor Party, but none of this affected his appointment to the Senate.

    Due to a court challenge, Field was absent through the events of late 1975, but the absence of Labor’s Bert Milliner proved critical to the Coalition’s blocking of supply and the demise of the Whitlam government.

    With the Gair, Bunton and Field affairs in mind, there was general political agreement that the appointment of Senate casual vacancies had to be tightened, hence the 1977 referendum backed by both sides of politics and accepted by the electorate.

    However, this has put Senate casual vacancies completely under the control of the central selection procedures of each political party. The games engaged in between the parties in the 1972-5 parliaments have been changed into games within parties over the filling of casual vacancies.

    An alternative view is that the Carr appointment reveals that the casual vacancy process can be used to get good quality members into the Senate and cabinet.

    But then there are also issues of the democratic legitimacy of the process. For example, Queensland Liberal Senator Santo Santoro was appointed to a casual vacancy in 2002 and served as Minister for Ageing in the Howard government 2006-7. A series of problems with his declaration of financial interests saw him resign from the Ministry in March 2007 and the Senate in April 2007. Santoro spent five years in the Senate, a year as a Minister, and never faced the electorate via a Senate election.

    There is no doubt Bob Carr will replace Mark Arbib as a new NSW Labor Senator. It seems highly unlikely that the NSW Parliament will refuse to fill the vacancy. And compared to many of the other casual vacancies over the last 35 years, Carr’s appointment improves the quality of NSW representation in the Senate.

    If you want to read more on the issue of casual vacancies, I recommend the article “Senate Vacancies: Casual or Contrived?” by John Nethercote. It outlines some of the problems that have arisen over democratic legitimacy under the Senate casual vacancy rules, and also provides an excellent history of the casual vacancy conventions that applied before 1977.

    UPDATE: I’ve been asked several times what happens if an Independent resigns, who fills the vacancy.

    First, if the departing Senator had originally been elected for a party, the replacement would be from the original party. So if Labor-defector Mal Colston had been forced from the Senate, his replacement would have been a Labor Senator.

    But the more difficult question is an Independent elected as an Independent.

    The Constitution states ‘party’, but this was inserted in the Constitution in 1977 before the first registration of parties by the Electoral Commission in 1984. So any constitutional interpetation of the meaning of party could include a broader recognition of political association beyond that defined by the Electoral Act. A candidate elected as an Independent but who can be defined as part of a ‘party’ with some form organisational structure could be recognised as a party.

    But what if there was no party structure at all. How could a replacement be determined?

    As anyone who filled such a casual vacancy could be challenged in the High Court, the person chosen to fill such a vacancy must be the one best able to withstand a High Court challenge. That means there are no simple rules to fill such a vacancy, it depends on the individual circumstances.

    The test case was the appointment of a replacement for Nick Xenophon when he resigned from the South Australian Legislative Council to contest the 2007 federal election. Xenophon had contested the 2006 election at the head of a group of three candidates, the second of whom was elected along with him at the election. When Xenophon resigned, the SA Legislative Council decided on the third person on the ticket to fill his vacancy.

    Such a party-like relation would be important in any determination of who should fill a vacancy. However, had there been a rift between Xenophon and his third candidate, such a replacement may not have been appropriate.

    Another example was the resignation of Senator Steele Hall in 1977. Hall had been elected as a South Australian Senator for the Liberal Movement, but he had re-joined the Liberal Party. The Liberal Movement had ceased to exist, though a New Liberal Movement had been formed. Most Liberal Movement members had joined the newly formed Australian Democrats, and the SA Parliament eventually settled on Janine Haines as his replacement. She had been third on the Liberal Movement Senate ticket in 1975 and was now an Australian Democrat. She was appointed to the balance of Hall’s term expiring in June 1978, becoming the first Australian Democrat Senator. Note that this appointment was not covered by the new Section 15, but the Dunstan government chose to apply the logic of the new provision.

    In summary, there are different factors that come into play in determining who would be the best replacement for an Independent Senator. The Parliament would have to try and determine the most appropriate person, and the one most likely to withstand a challenge.

    In the end, another option would be to leave the seat vacant. If only the balance of a term remained, this may be appropriate. If several years remained, and and the balance of power was tight, the state Parliament may be forced to make the most appropriate appointment it could.

  • Would an Arctic Methane Release Spell the End of Human Life on Earth

    Oil Price Daily News Update


    Would an Arctic Methane Release Spell the End of Human Life on Earth?

    Posted: 09 Mar 2012 02:23 PM PST

    Let’s suppose that the Arctic started to degas methane 100 times faster than it is today. I just made that number up trying to come up with a blow-the-doors-off surprise, something like the ozone hole. We ran the numbers to get an idea of how the climate impact of an Arctic Methane Nasty Surprise would stack up to that from Business-as-Usual rising CO2. Walter et al (2007) says that Arctic lakes are 10% of natural global emissions, or about 5% of total emissions. I believe that was considered to be remarkably high at the time but let’s…

    Read more…

    Tokyo Warned that “Big” Earthquake Coming

    Posted: 08 Mar 2012 03:04 PM PST

    As the world prepares to commemorate next week the first anniversary of the Fukushima nuclear disaster, Japanese scientists are warning that Tokyo is in increasing danger from a potential massive earthquake. Greater Tokyo, with its 35 million inhabitants, has experienced a three-fold increase in tectonic activity in the year since the 9.0 Richter scale sub sea earthquake produced the tsunami that devastated Fukushima. Metropolitan Tokyo now averages 1.5 quakes in and around the city each day. Tokyo has had many experiences with earthquakes.…

    Read more…

    Don’t Factor Syrian Oil into Market Jitters

    Posted: 08 Mar 2012 03:01 PM PST

    Conflicts in the Middle East and North Africa are likely dragging on broader economic recovery as oil prices move to relative highs. In Syria, any recovery in oil production will be inhibited by damage to the country’s infrastructure.  Foreign energy companies stopped working in Syria earlier this year because of the conflict and this week, a deputy oil minister became the highest-ranking civilian official to defect from the government. While the conflict in Syria contributes to the general unease in the global oil market, its overall energy…

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    Australia’s New $10 Billion Clean Energy Finance Corp. – Benefit or Boondoggle?

    Posted: 08 Mar 2012 02:57 PM PST

    On 7 March the government of Australian Prime Minister Julia Gillard said that Sydney would house the country’s new Clean Energy Finance Corp., announced in 2011 as part of the country’s carbon pricing package. In choosing Sydney Gillard said, ”This is a city that can offer the benefit of financial and professional networks. Our Treasury tells us we will see $100 billion of new investment into renewable energy between now and 2050. So the Clean Energy Finance Corporation is going to be a part of making sure that we realise the clean…

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    This Year it is Fossil Fuels Turn to Receive the Majority of DOE Funding

    Posted: 08 Mar 2012 02:53 PM PST

    The renewable energy and energy efficiency sectors received most of the US federal government’s $24 billion in energy subsidies last year, but fossil fuels will win out this year as several key tax breaks for renewables have expired. Preferential tax treatment accounted for $20.5 billion, or about 85%, of federal support for developing and producing fuel and energy technologies in 2011, while Department of Energy (DOE) spending programmes comprised nearly $3.5 billion, or 15%, according to a report by the non-partisan Congressional Budget…

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    Scrapping all Coal Plants Would have no Significant Effect for 100 Years

    Posted: 08 Mar 2012 02:50 PM PST

    Who could have dreamed solving climate change would be so easy? A new paper in Environmental Research Letters called “Greenhouse gases, climate change and the transition from coal to low-carbon electricity” concludes that replacement of all of the world’s currently operating coal-fired power plants — which produce about 40% of the world’s electricity — and replacing them with renewable energy would have an impact of 0.2 degrees Celsius 100 years from now. Cherry-Picking Conclusions According to One’s Viewpoint…

    Read more…

    The Booms and Busts of the Electric Power Industry

    Posted: 08 Mar 2012 02:40 PM PST

    The electric power industry is driven by boom and bust cycles as market fundamentals and volatility sends signals to market participants to speed up or slow down their efforts. One of the lessons of that boom and bust experience is that seeds of the next boom are sown in the bust of the last business cycle. By that I mean the enthusiasm of the boom stage of the market always attracts new entrants and leads to excess which increases volatility before the fundamentals of supply and demand swing back toward equilibrium. This phenomenon is shown clearly…

    Read more…

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  • Sea Ice Area (Hansen and Sato)

     

    Sea Ice Area

    The area of sea ice cover is an important climate feedback. Figure 20 in “Storms” shows the large decrease of Arctic sea ice area that occurred at the end of the warm season in 2007. This sudden loss of sea ice is a cause of concern because sea ice area causes an amplifying climate feedbacks. As the area of ice decreases, increased absorption of sunlight by the darker ocean causes more sea ice melting. The huge sea ice loss of 2007 caused some scientists and other people to speculate that all Arctic warm-season sea ice may be lost within five years.

    Sea ice cover is probably not that unstable. Figure 3 shows Arctic and Antarctic sea ice cover in the summer months of maximum insolation, as well as the ice cover in the months with maximum and minimum ice area. It is the sea ice area in April-August, when the sun is high in the Arctic sky, that determines the degree of sea ice feedback in the Northern Hemisphere. The figure below suggests that the September 2007 sea ice minimum did not have a correspondingly large effect on the sea ice area at the time of maximum insolation.

    Arctic and Antarctic sea ice extent at their minimums, maximums and seasons of maximum and minimum insolation. (Also in PDF.) The “extent” includes the area near the pole not imaged by the sensor. It is assumed to be entirely ice covered with at least 15% concentration. [This statement and data source is National Snow and Ice Data Center, Boulder, CO; http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/.]

    It seems likely that all September Arctic sea ice may be gone within a few decades, if human- made greenhouse gases continue to increase. On the other hand, as discussed in “Storms”, if Earth’s energy balance is restored by decreasing atmospheric carbon dioxide to 350 ppm or less, it may be possible to stabilize or increase the area of Arctic ice.

    See more fiugres.

    Last Modified: 2012/03/02, Data through February 2012.

  • Science daily:Severe Weather news

    ScienceDaily: Severe Weather News


    Scientists detect seismic signals from tornado

    Posted: 08 Mar 2012 07:13 AM PST

    A geophysical experiment detected unusual seismic signals associated with tornadoes that recently struck regions across the Midwest — information that may have value for meteorologists studying the atmospheric activity that precedes tornado disasters.

    Large solar flares generate geomagnetic storm

    Posted: 08 Mar 2012 07:07 AM PST

    A pair of unusually large solar flares early March 7, 2012 generated a Coronal Mass Ejection that was expected to reach Earth around mid-day March 8. It will likely cause at least a strong geomagnetic storm that could affect satellites in space and trigger auroral displays. The effects at ground level are expected to be limited, but there is a good chance for some excellent auroral displays in the north.
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