Academic rigour, journalistic flair

The Australian government has just received a vitally important report to guide their decisions on the future of Australia’s Renewable Energy Target (RET).

But it’s not the RET review report of the Coalition-appointed expert panel, led by Dick Warburton, which was released last week.

Rather it is the draft final report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report, which has just been sent to the governments of the IPCC’s 195 member countries. The report integrates the three previous reports on the science, impacts, and mitigation of climate change already released over the past year.

Its intent is to provide policymakers with a scientific foundation, based upon the work of the thousands of researchers volunteering their time to the IPCC, to tackle the challenge of climate change.

Carbon emissions need to rapidly decrease starting now

The report will be publicly released in November but a draft copy for review was recently leaked to the media. Its language is considerably more forceful than the previous report of 2007, noting that:

Continued emission of greenhouse gases will cause further warming and long-lasting changes in all components of the climate system, increasing the likelihood of severe, pervasive and irreversible impacts for people and ecosystems.

The report also highlights the growing challenges already posed by climate change including extreme weather such as heat waves, flooding and droughts, and its potential to worsen violent conflicts, refugee flows and food production.

A key focus of the report is on the growing risks of climate change – the synthesis report apparently uses the term “risk” 351 times in just 127 pages.

In 2009 countries around the world, including Australia, made a commitment to keeping global warming below 2C. However, the report says that it is looking more likely that the world will shoot past that point. Limiting warming to this level is possible but would require dramatic and immediate cuts in greenhouse emissions.

Indeed, the IPCC’s work on mitigation options suggests that near-complete decarbonisation of the electricity sector by 2050 will likely be required and that renewable energy has a key role to play, particularly given the evident challenges facing other low-carbon generation options including carbon capture and storage and nuclear power.

Renewable energy to reduce risk

By comparison, the report of the Warburton review gives almost no consideration of these climate change challenges, and the Renewable Energy Target’s contribution to addressing them. This is surprising given that the RET is, after all, one of the most significant greenhouse emission reduction policies that Australia has implemented to date, and has already started to transform the Australian electricity industry towards a lower carbon future.

The review, however, framed its climate change considerations in terms of the Australian government’s current 5% emission reduction target from 2000 levels for 2020 — a target which the government’s own Climate Change Authority has determined is entirely inadequate given the scale of the climate challenge, and the efforts of other countries to date.

Furthermore, the Warburton review assumes that the target can best be achieved by the government’s proposed Emissions Reduction Fund — part of the Direct Action plan — a measure that remains largely unspecified and hasn’t yet been modelled, let alone legislated.

Instead, the main modelling undertaken by the review towards its first term of reference — the need to consider the economic, environmental and social impacts of the RET scheme — assumes there are no costs associated with the greenhouse emissions of fossil fuel generation out to 2030.

How, then, do they consider the future uncertainties associated with international action on climate change? They don’t, other than the inclusion of one scenario in their analysis featuring a token shadow carbon price of A$10 per tonne of carbon dioxide starting in 2021. Such a shadow price is not meaningful in terms of the climate challenge – even oil multinationals like BP and Shell are using a shadow carbon price of US$40 per tonne for their own investments.

Modelling work by groups including our Centre for Energy and Environmental Markets here at the University of NSW has highlighted that increased renewable generation provides an excellent hedge against the risks future international gas and carbon price increases currently pose for the Australian economy.

The other RET review

Fortunately, the Australian government does have before it an excellent and highly detailed report on ways to reform some of the present inadequacies of the RET.

Unfortunately, that’s not the Warburton report either.

It’s the 2012 report from the government’s Climate Change Authority on the RET. It rightly argues against changing the current target for renewable generation and highlights the importance of providing some measure of investment certainty to facilitate timely and least-cost renewables deployment. It also suggests a series of useful suggestions on how the scheme’s operation and performance might be improved. By comparison, the Warburton review offers two possible ‘reform’ options that both would pretty much kill the existing renewable energy support provided by the scheme.

Some light relief

After reading the IPCC and Climate Change Authority work, members of the government may well be needing some light relief.

And fortunately, they also have a report for that — yes, the Warburton review. The review was specifically asked by the government to consider the impact of the RET towards rising household and business prices. Its modelling, however, found — in broad agreement with other modelling exercises including again work here at UNSW — that the RET is likely to reduce these prices by increasing market competition.

Rather than households paying for the emission reductions delivered by the scheme, it is the incumbent fossil-fuel generators.

Seeing the panel tie themselves in knots trying to explain why they recommend ending or greatly reducing the target even though it will increase emissions, increase household and business electricity prices and deliver windfall profits to the large fossil-fuel generators is quite something to behold.

But after this light relief, the work of the government to actually address our climate change challenges still remains to be done. Confirming that the RET target will not be reduced is the place to start. Expanding the target for 2030 and beyond should come next.

Forgotten Australians & Former Child Migrants living in South Queensland were invited to create a work of art in response to the theme “What is Justice?” within a 20x20cm wooden box. Lotus Place held creative workshops during August to support participants in responding to a theme which is particularly confronting for survivors who have experienced a lack of justice for the trauma, neglect and abuse inflicted upon them in their early years and the resulting effects of these circumstances.

It is estimated 500,000 children spent their childhood in more than 800 children’s homes and institutions across Australia throughout the 20th century. On 16th November 2009, Prime Minister Kevin Rudd apologized to the Forgotten Australians on behalf of all Australians, acknowledging this painful and regrettable chapter in our nation’s history.

This year marks 5 years since the apology and 15 years since the Forde Inquiry, making it a perfect opportunity to reflect on the question of justice, an issue that is never far from the minds of Forgotten Australians & Former Child Migrants. This exhibition is a conversation about their justice, whether it is possible and what it might look like.

Opening Reception Friday 12th September 12pm
Exhibition runs Thurs 11 – Sun 14 September. 9am-5pm
Brisbane City Hall, Sherwood Room, 64 Adelaide Street
Guest speakers, light refreshments and performance by FAN Theatre Group “Forgotten No More”

Artists

Allan A, B S, Bryan H, Chris B, Colleen S, Danuta S, Debra C, Dee S, Denise P, Dennis D, Diane C, Diane T, Donna S, Eric H, Frank M, Gavan L, Gloria L, Greg L, Hank L, Hanna W, Janette T, Jessie M, Juanita B, Karen H, Karen C, Kathleen B, Katrina W, Kelly B, Kevin D, Lana S, Leonie W, Malcolm V, Margaret M, Margaret H, Marlene W, Mary A, Michael C, Michele U, Noel H, Olga A, Peter C, Robert T, Ruby S, Sherie H, T Collins, Terrencia B, Theresa W and others who wish to remain anonymous.

Westender had the exclusive opportunity to speak with one of the Oz Comic-Con’s guests this morning, Christopher Judge, the actor who played Teal’c in the Stargate TV series.

Judge told us that he is really excited about meeting his Australian fans, as he finds them to be well mannered and amaze him with their enthusiasm with the Stargate franchise.

“The fans supported us for so long, that I really take it very personally being able to … shake hands, hug [them] and say ‘thank you’ to just as many fans as I can.”

Even though the show ended a few years ago Judge has noticed the popularity of Stargate continues to grow. Something he attributes to those who grew up watching Stargate as teens.

“I think a lot of people were in their teens have now their own children [whom they are] introducing to the show — which is fantastic.

“That was one of the things I loved about the show in the first place, that it was one of the few shows that families could get together and watch as a single unit.

“There still isn’t that many shows you can do that.”

The success of Stargate, from the start, can easily be attributed to the timing of it’s release Judge explains.

“When we started in 1997 there were kind of a vacuum, as far as sci-fi shows go. The Star Trek franchise was winding down, and this was before the big comic book and fantasy movie boom.

“And we had MacGyver (Richard Dean Anderson) — sci-fi plus MacGyver, we were going to get a few eyeballs.

“What sustained it, and grew it, was the team of characters and that you could tell that the characters really cared about each other.”

He adds that it was also the humour that made Stargate so unique.

“No matter how dire the circumstance, there was still a laugh to be had somewhere.”

Judge says that sci-fi is “a great form for allegory to a lot of stuff that is going on in the world today.”

“You can play out these different social and economic problems we are going through without hitting people over the head with it.

“You can either watch it as pure entertainment, or you can make those ties to what is going on [around us].

“People are looking to escape at night, not to be overwhelmed by doom-and-gloom type shows.”

When asking Judge what he enjoyed the most when playing Teal’c, he says it was because the character was so straightforward.

“There was no halfway.

“He had this kind of child-like innocence about him.

“Teal’c was the big tough-guy, but he had a huge heart. And I think a lot of fans could sense that.

“I’m especially proud how he resonated with kids.”

Judge also finds Teal’c’s moments of naiveté to be memorable.

“[Like] when he tried to express feelings to some of the other characters, and not quite know the correct verbiage.”

Not forgetting “when he was wearing these wild, silly shirts.” That is something Judge still laughs about today.

Judge makes a point that he admires smart sci-fi and its audience.

“What I love about sci-fi [is that] I truly believe that the sci-fi audience is the smartest of all the genre audiences.

“They can smell a rat — they can smell when you’re not truly invested in it.

“For sci-fi the bar is higher. That’s one of the great things about it I think.

“Good sci-fi will never pander to it’s audience, because it doesn’t have to.”

As a final note, “I hope everyone will come [to Oz Comic-Con] as I’m looking forward to meeting as many people as I can, but for those of you who can’t, I just really want to say thank you for these 17 odd years of support and love.”

What: Oz Comic-Con — www.ozcomiccon.com
When: Sept 6th — 7th, 2014 / 9 am to 6 pm
Where: Brisbane Convention & Exhibition Centre

Brisbane’s sizeable cycling community is being challenged to hop on their bikes and support the fifth annual Ride for Life Challenge on Sunday 12 October 2014.

Riders will also get the chance to rub shoulders with Tour de France great and Ride for Life ambassador, Robbie McEwen, who will be whizzing through the packs offering invaluable tips and tricks.

The Ride for Life Challenge this year will support Guide Dogs Queensland and the Children’s Hospital Foundation.

Registrations are open and limited to 1000, visit rideforlifechallenge.com.au for more information.

The $99 registration fee includes a charitable donation and a free 2014 Ride for Life jersey.

The ride includes full support – a police escort, a rest stop with refreshments, course Cycle Guides, first aid, mechanical support and support vehicles, a post-ride breakfast and an exclusive after-party at Byblos Bar + Restaurant.

Corporate groups, local teams and individuals are encouraged to register for the non- competitive social ride around Brisbane, and spectators are encouraged to attend to cheer on the riders.

Where: Starting and finishing at Hamilton’s Northshore Riverside Park
When: Sunday 12 October 2014

robertscribbler

Scribbling for economic, social and environmental justice

It’s All About Fresh Water — Rapid Sea Level Rise Points To Massive Glacial Melt in Antarctica

It’s all about fresh water. In this case, massive freshwater outflows from the vast glaciers covering Antarctica.

This week, a new scientific report published in the Journal Nature found that from 1992 through 2012 freshwater outflow from Antarctica’s massive glaciers exceeded 400 gigatons each year. An immense flood of cold, fresh water. One that helped push sea levels rapidly higher around the Antarctic continent.

But with glacial melt on the rise and with mountains of ice now inexorably sliding seaward, these freshwater flows may just be the start of even more powerful outbursts to come. And such prospective future events have far-ranging implications for sea level rise, global weather, sea ice, human-caused climate change, and world ocean health.

Flood of Fresh Water Drives More Sea Level Rise Than Expected

The researchers discovered the tell-tale signature of this vast freshwater flood through chemical analysis of the seas surrounding Antarctica. The analysis pointed to a broad and expanding fresh water layer over-riding a warmer, saltier current issuing in from the Southern Ocean.

Since fresh water is less dense than salt water, the freshwater layer expands at the ocean surface causing sea levels to rise more rapidly. Meanwhile, the heating of the deep ocean surrounding Antarctica is thought to result in additional thermal expansion of the water column.

The researchers note:

On the basis of the model simulations, we conclude that this sea-level rise is almost entirely related to steric adjustment [changes that effect atomic spacing], rather than changes in local ocean mass, with a halosteric [salt based] rise in the upper ocean and thermosteric [heat based] contributions at depth. We estimate that an excess freshwater input of 430 ± 230 Gt yr⁻¹ is required to explain the observed sea-level rise. We conclude that accelerating discharge from the Antarctic Ice Sheet has had a pronounced and widespread impact on the adjacent subpolar seas over the past two decades.

(Rate of sea level rise in the seas surrounding Antarctica since 1992. Aggregate sea level rise is indicated in black. Individual seas data is broken out by color. Image source: Nature.)

Previously, increased rates of sea level rise surrounding Antarctica were thought to have been set off by increasing winds around the continent. The winds were thought to push more water up against the ice faces forming a kind of perpetual, low-grade storm surge. But the current finding provides strong evidence that the source of the sea level rise is due to less dense fresh water over-topping saltier waters flowing in from the Southern Ocean combined with increasing heat along the Antarctic sea bed. And, notably, this is not the first study to find increasing freshwater flows spilling into the Southern Ocean. Last year, a KNMI expedition uncovered similar results.

More Evidence of Large-Scale Melt

The study comes on the back of other recent findings showing that warm water invasion at Antarctic glacier bases had led to more rapid than expected melt and destabilization. In May, two NASA studies showed that a broad section of West Antarctica had destabilized and was sliding at an ever more rapid pace toward the ocean (see reports here and here). These findings held stark implications for global sea level rise as large ice regions of Greenland and West Antarctica, containing enough water to raise seas at least 15 feet, are likely already in a state of irreversible collapse.

(Sea level rise anomaly of the region surrounding Antarctica compared with the rest of the Southern Ocean. Red indicates faster than normal sea level rise. Blue indicates slower than normal sea level rise. Image source: Nature.)

This intensifying glacial melt and associated freshwater cap expanding out from the pole has implications — not just for sea level rise, but for sea ice, weather, and world ocean system health.

Impacts For Sea Ice

Large outflows of glacial fresh water may well be involved in the recent observed expansion of sea ice in the zone surrounding Antarctica (see recent related study). Fresh water serves as an insulative cap on the ocean surface preventing warm water from entering the top layer from below. The warm, salty water, in the Antarctic instead pools near the bottom or at the base of the great ice sheets.

Fresh water also freezes at a higher temperature than salt water. So sea ice in an expanding freshwater zone around Antarctica would have naturally higher resiliency even to the rising temperatures now occurring due to human-caused warming. Eventually, however, human heat forcing would overwhelm the ice, but not before a period of related, localized negative feedbacks.

The Iceberg Cooling Effect

The fresh water is a haven for sunlight-reflecting sea ice. It is interspersed with ice bergs from the glacial discharge and the large ice bergs cool the surrounding air. The fresh water layer prevents warm water upwelling from the warm, deep waters surrounding Antarctica. And the leading edge of the fresh water would drive salt-water down-welling along its advancing front. This would push warmer waters toward the ocean bottom, resulting in a kind of heat sink. And this is exactly the kind of dynamic that appears to be ongoing in the Southern Ocean now. These combined impacts are what is known as the ice berg cooling effect associated with large-scale glacial outbursts known as Heinrich Events. And we may well be in the process of setting off one of these geological scale nightmares.

(Iceberg cooling effect under a mid-range warming scenario when global climate models were set to include the effects of large freshwater outflows from polar glaciers at a fast enough rate to raise seas by 60 cm through 2060 and 144 cm through 2080 [left frames]. Note the cooler zones in the Southern Ocean and North Atlantic adjacent to Greenland. Right frames include mid range emissions/warming scenarios and IPCC projected rates of sea level rise. It is worth noting that the amplifying effects of potential additional ghg release from the global climate system, particularly from Arctic and world ocean carbon stores, are not included in these simulations. Image source: Hansen and Sato.)

For global weather, such events have major implications. Regional cooling in the zone of freshwater outflow would juxtapose regional warming in the southern hemisphere meridional zones. This temperature differential would increase with the strength of the fresh water outflow and the rising intensity of the human-driven warming. The result would be a powerfully intensified storm track. Both the intensified storm track and increased atmospheric moisture loading due to human warming would result in much more powerful weather events than we are currently used to and the potential for catastrophic storms would drastically increase.

Amplifying Feedbacks and a Blow to World Ocean Health

Lastly, the expanding flood of fresh water would result in an increasing stratification of the world ocean system. This stratification would drive warm, salty water toward the ocean bottom and deplete already low oxygen reserves in that region. In addition, the extra heat is more likely to destabilize deep-sea clathrates — releasing methane which will speed in the oxygen depletion of the abyssal waters even as it tips the world ocean system to stop storing carbon and to begin releasing it. A combined feedback that is both an ocean killer and an amplifier to the already extraordinarily powerful human heat forcing mechanism.

Links:

Rapid Sea Level Rise Along Antarctic Margins Due to Increasing Glacial Discharge

Important Role For Ocean Warming and Enhanced Ice Shelf Melt in Sea Ice Expansion

Update on Greenland Ice Sheet Mass Loss: Exponential?

Grim News From NASA: West Antarctica’s Entire Flank is Collapsing

Nature: Human-Destabilized Antarctica Capable of Glacial Outbursts Contributing to Up to 14 Feet of Sea Level Rise Per Century