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China’s record trade surplus is bad news for Australian miners, with commodity imports falling.
Australia’s biggest trading partner booked a surplus of just shy of $US50 billion in August, a record balance.
However, that is bad news for resources exporters as China’s surplus came not only from a 9.4 per cent annual rise in exports, but also a 2.4 per cent slide in imports.
Of particular relevance to Australia, iron ore exports dropped 9.3 per cent in August compared with July, although they remain 16.9 per cent up for the year to date.
That fall in imports was both exacerbated by, and a cause of, a steep decline in iron ore prices last month, which has continued so far in September with the benchmark Chinese spot price hitting a fresh five-year low of $US83.60 a tonne.
The news for coal was even more bleak, with an 18.1 per cent slump in imports between July and August, while imports are down 5.3 per cent over the year so far.
A key benchmark price for Australia thermal coal, used for power generation, has fallen more than 20 per cent this year.
Both iron ore and coal prices are now less than half their post financial crisis peaks.
Capital Economics analyst Julian Evans-Pritchard says a property market slowdown is starting to reduce demand for building materials such as steel, reducing iron ore prices, but lower iron ore prices have also weighed on the value of imports.
“Slower import growth reflects cooling investment, particularly in the property sector, which has weighed on commodity demand,” he told Reuters.
“That said, the weakness in commodity imports has also been magnified by the sharp falls in commodity prices in recent months.”
Mr Evans-Pritchard does not expect that situation to change soon, however other analysts are hopeful that China will introduce some stimulus to maintain growth near its 7.5 per cent target.
“It’s an interesting set of numbers for policymakers: it calls for more policy easing but, at the same time, strong exports and a record surplus will put some pressure on policymakers to let the currency rise in some way or the other,” Hong Kong-based RBS economist Louis Kuijs told Reuters.
Daily update: Tony Abbott’s Year of Leading Dangerously
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Renew Economy editor@reneweconomy.com.au via mail21.atl111.rsgsv.net
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Abbott’s Year of Living Dangerously; ACT wind auction attracts 18 bids; NSW, Qld have most to lose from RET changes; Solar parity with wholesale market; Vested interests cutting down clean energy; Aus cleantech stocks lose ground as China’s surge; Redflow strikes new battery supply agreement in Europe; Net savings of $71 trillion by 2050 with transition to renewable energy; China may be ready to kick coal habit; SunEdison to build 70MW solar plant for Chilean copper mine; and New York to become a hub of climate hubbub
Tony Abbott’s first year in government has not been worse than thought, it has been as bad (for clean energy) as Abbott predicted. And the Coalition’s attack on renewables is becoming more cynical by the day.
In a classic example of vested interests resisting change, politicians are considering winding back clean energy policies just as they are proving successful.
All I can say is that Oz Comic-Con 2014 in Brisbane was amazeballs! To be honest, it was the first time in my life I’ve ever been to a convention focused on comic books, sci-fi, fantasy and everything nerdy. Which now means I need to rethink my budget so I can factor in the expenses to visit the next one — where ever and whenever that will be, year after year.
To see all the cosplayers is really a great experience. The amount of time some have spent to look like their favourite characters is unfathomable — at least to me. When you’re not sure if they are the real deal or a very devoted fan, you know they’ve gone that extra mile to make their costume look absolutely awesome!
What attracts a lot of people isn’t just the cosplayers and the amazing merchandise you can buy there. It’s where you can have the chance to meet some of your favourite actors. Have them sign a photograph while you exchange a few words with them, maybe even have your photo taken with them. Then sit in at one of their panels where you might be lucky enough to ask them a question or two.
Earlier this week I had the amazing opportunity to speak with Chris Judge. An absolutely awesome experience. Talking with a famous actor that is able to show he is a very grounded person, and not that different from you and I, is amazing and inspiring.
Of course, it’s when they get on that stage, start answering questions from fans and interact with them, you truly see who they are as a person. Again, just amazing.
Chris Judge had two panels that were open for everyone, one on Saturday and one on Sunday. I ended up going to both. That’s how much I enjoyed hearing Chris Judge talk about is experience playing Teal’c in Stargate SG1 and all the crazy stuff he got up to on set.
His reputation for pulling pranks was so bad that he got blamed for anything that went wrong on set.
“If it rained I got blamed for it.”
He was also infamous for duct taping people to things around the set as prank. But what made the crowd roar with laughter was the stories about the farting contests they had on the Stargate SG1 set.
“[One time] I let one go [and] it was great. [We] had to stop shooting for 40 minutes.”
Chris Judge didn’t only tell stories about his antics on set. He also told about how much he appreciate his fans and that it’s thanks to their devotion to the show that made it so successful.
Then to see William Shatner later on stage was almost unfathomable, as he is an actor I’ve grown up with as a kid. Not only knowing him from Star Trek, but from The Twilight Zone and Boston Legal, to name a few.
Hearing him talk about how Star Trek has inspired so many people’s lives was really great. Especially how the moon landing in 1969 increased the ratings of Star Trek, which in turn sparked a greater interest in space exploration. Making us realise that TV shows don’t only entertain, but also educate and inspire us.
Which is especially what the Star Trek franchise has been best known for, dramatising what we humans are doing on this planet to each other. Juxtaposing things we should be able to be with out, such as racism.
To experience something like this, as in, being in the same room as someone you’ve only seen on TV is not part of my daily life. As far as I know, this might be the first and last time I ever get the chance to meet Chris Judge and William Shatner. Which is why I decided to grab the opportunity to say hi, in person, and get a signed photograph from them both.
Money well spent if you ask me. As I will now enjoy having the memorabilia to remind me having met these two amazing actors.
Too often the media focus only on the fame that surrounds these actors. What we forget, which they discussed in both their panels, and I’ve mentioned earlier, is how their shows have had a huge, personal impact on people’s lives — sometimes even politics. Which is something we need to keep in mind, that they sure earn a good living doing what they love, but they also touch a lot of hearts with what they do.
As mentioned, they don’t only entertain us, they also inspire us to become better persons.
Get ready for an experience that’s literally out of this world with your new telescope.. Cr. MamaBuzz
Well, with Winter out of the way and balmy nights ahead our thoughts once again turn to sky watching. Everything in astronomy involves peering through this long tube we call the telescope. So, what exactly is a telescope and what do they do?
Well, for one thing, telescopes don’t magnify anything, they just gather light. It’s true! The real magnification comes from the different lenses, or eyepieces you pop in the scope.
Think of a telescope then as a ‘light bucket’ – the bigger the bucket, the more photons a telescope can collect. The lens or mirror in your telescope collects the light from the Moon, a planet or distant star and sends it through the eyepiece to your eye where it’s magnified.
Astronomy is one of those hobbies where bigger is better but be careful, you only get what you pay for. Telescopes today are made to a price, not a quality, and the trade-off is usually in the eyepieces. Cheap toy telescopes found in department stores are to be avoided.
In Australia, any telescope under $250 is considered junk so beware. A good pair of binoculars on a tripod can be better than a cheap telescope that wobbles in a light breeze and won’t focus properly.If your telescope shows everything as blurry or distorted, it’s probably a lousy eyepiece that came in the box. Simply replacing it can breathe new life into a telescope that could have been relegated to the junk heap. Look for the letters ‘H’ or ‘K’ on the barrel. If you find that stamped there replace them with better quality units like Plossls.
By the way, Galileo didn’t invent the telescope. History got that one wrong. Hans Lippershey, a Dutch spectacle maker is usually acknowledged for the earliest recorded design for an optical telescope in 1608. Galileo was, however, the first one to turn it into a commercial proposition.
Hey, I almost forgot. When buying a telescope decide if you just want to observe the heavens or take it outside in the daytime as well. Some telescopes invert the image – that’s right, they turn everything upside down! Reflecting telescopes, popular with a lot of amateur astronomers, will do this but a refractor won’t. So, if you intend packing the scope for a day out whale watching followed by a night session in the backyard, go for the reflector OK.
Observe away from buildings, pavement or large objects that absorb heat by day and release it at night. The best locations are open, grass covered areas. For a similar reason, observing through an open window is also a bad idea. Allow your eyes to become dark adapted before trying to observe faint deep sky objects. This takes time, typically 15 minutes under truly dark conditions. Unfortunately, it only takes seconds to ruin your dark adapted eyes by looking into a bright light again.
One last thing, control the magnification when using your telescope. Too much power is the single biggest mistake beginners make with a telescope. Excessive magnification yields a fuzzy, very dark image. OK, open the door. Mars and Saturn begin the month still close together in the west, with the Moon just to the right of Mars. In the early evening, the Southern Cross can be seen in the south west, tipped over on its side, with the two ‘pointers’ almost vertical above it. The Milky Way spans the sky overhead, looking splendid as it stretches almost north south tonight.
Scoping The Spring Skies
Spring is a great time to get out under the stars. cr Reneke-Rodrigofull
You know, a telescope is really a subtle space ship of the mind. Its range is limited only by your willingness to be patient. Learn how to use it to its best advantage and learn how to really see what it is showing you. Be aware though that the views won’t look like the full colour spreads in magazines and books. Only instruments like Hubble can do that.
The Moon will be dazzlingly bright and sharp with a lifetime of detail to explore. The planets will look very small, even with high power, but if you’re patient you’ll be surprised how much colour and subtle detail will be revealed, especially during brief moments when our atmosphere is steady.
All of your observing with the unaided eye, binoculars or a telescope will be easier and richer with the help of good over the counter sky software like Starry Night. Here’s a tip – if you go to www.stellarium.org you can download a program almost as good. I use it all the time. It’s easy to use, and free to download.
Take your time and really observe an object. This technique probably cannot be overstated. Spending even 2-3 minutes studying what’s in your field of view will reveal vastly more detail than simply glancing at an object then hurrying on to the next. A quick glance at Saturn for instance shows it rings, a long look reveals divisions in those rings, cloud bands, subtle colorations, and moons. No technique in astronomy will show you more than spending time examining an object in detail with your own eyes.
Let’s start with one of the easiest to find yet most rewarding objects when visible, the Moon. Its rugged craters, high mountains, and vast ‘seas’ offer some of the finest details to be found in any astronomical target. It changes every night as the terminator, the line between sunset and shadow, progresses over the surface, revealing new details.
At first, the lunar landscape will look quite confusing, but keep in mind that lunar north has fewer craters than lunar south. As you study the Moon from month to month craters will become more familiar to you. Notice those huge flat grey areas? They’re called ‘seas’ after Galileo who first spotted them through his newly invented telescope. He thought they were oceans but they’re just cold grey flat lava beds, some hundreds of kilometres across!
So, where should you set up? Footpaths and rooftops absorb heat during the day and radiate it back off during the night. The resulting turbulent air can distort the image through your telescope. So for best results, set up your telescope on dirt or grass, which absorb much less heat, and avoid aiming directly over nearby buildings.
The best time to view an object is when it is high in the sky. There’s less pollution and less sky glow, so the view will be clearer.
Light pollution decreases late at night, as downtown businesses close and households turn off outdoor lights. Try stargazing near midnight or during the ‘wee hours’ of the morning when possible. You know, astronomy is now your own personal voyage of discovery into the depths of the universe and your telescope is your spacecraft. The glory of it all is that we can do it from our own backyard. Enjoy. For a FREE 323 page e-book “The Complete Idiots Guide To Astronomy” subscribe to Dave’s weekly newsletter www.davidreneke.com
Global Renewable Energy Growth ( Solar Thermal Magazine ) – Improvements in cost-competitiveness means that renewables will account for between 69% and 74% of new power capacity added by 2030 worldwide, despite current difficult market conditions.
London and New York, 22 April 2013 – New research by analysts at Bloomberg New Energy Finance show that annual investment in new renewable power capacity is set to rise by anywhere from two and a half times to more than four and a half times between now and 2030. The likeliest scenario implies a jump of 230%, to $630bn per year by 2030, driven by further improvements in the cost-competitiveness of wind and solar technologies relative to fossil fuel alternatives, as well as an increase in the roll-out of non-intermittent clean energy sources like hydro, geothermal and biomass.
This is the message of new research published today by Bloomberg New Energy Finance. The findings will be unveiled to delegates this afternoon at the analysis company’s sixth annual Summit, in New York.
Bloomberg New Energy Finance’s predictions for world energy markets to 2030 come from its Global Energy and Emissions Model, which integrates all of the main determinants of the energy future, including economic prosperity, global and regional demand growth, the evolution of technology costs, likely developments in policies to combat climate change, and trends in fossil fuel markets. Together these form three scenarios: “New Normal”, “Barrier Busting” and “Traditional Territory”.
The New Normal scenario is considered the most likely. It shows the investment requirement for new clean energy assets in the year 2030 at $630bn (in nominal terms), more than three times the investment in the renewable energy capacity that was built in 2012. This 2030 investment figure is 35% higher than that produced in Bloomberg New Energy Finance’s last global forecast a year ago, and the projection for total installed renewable energy capacity by that date is 25% higher than in that previous forecast, at 3,500GW.
In the power sector, the research company’s latest forecasts project that 70% of new power generation capacity added between 2012 and 2030 will be from renewable technologies (including large hydro). Only 25% will be in the form of coal, gas or oil, the remaining being nuclear. The scenarios are based on Bloomberg New Energy Finance’s latest projections for coal and gas prices. For gas, these assume prices stabilise in real terms at $6, $9 and $11/MMBtu in the US, Europe and the Asia respectively.
For comparison, the International Energy Agency’s New Policies scenario forecasts that 57% of power capacity added during this period will be from renewable resources (including large hydro).
Bloomberg New Energy Finance predicts that wind and solar will take up the largest shares of new power capacity added in terms of GW by 2030, accounting for 30% and 24% respectively. By 2030 renewable technologies will account for 50% of new power generation capacity installed around the world, up from 28% in 2012. In terms of power produced, the share of renewables will increase from 22% in 2012 to 37% in 2030.
The New Normal scenario’s outlook for global biofuel production in 2030 is that it will increase by around 200% from 120bn litres in 2012, to 370bn litres in 2030.
The future under Bloomberg New Energy Finance’s other two scenarios look somewhat different, although in both cases, there will be further growth in renewable energy demand. Capital requirements for renewable energy could reach $880bn by 2030, under the Barrier Busting assumptions ($9.3 trillion cumulative from 2013). This would require an additional $2 trillion (22% increase) invested in supporting infrastructure such as long distance transmission systems, smart grids, storage and demand response. Under a more pessimistic view of the world, in the Traditional Territory scenario, renewable energy investment requirements are projected to be $470bn by 2030 ($6.1 trillion cumulative).
Guy Turner, head of economics and commodities for Bloomberg New Energy Finance, commented:
This is the first time we have produced such detailed analysis of the future world energy system under different scenarios. It highlights that, in spite of the recent news showing a downturn in clean energy investment since 2011, renewable technologies will form the anchor of new generating capacity additions, even under a less optimistic view of the world economy and policy choices.
The main driver for future growth of the renewable sector over this timeframe is a shift from policy support to falling costs and natural demand. Our work also highlights, however, the importance of planning for the integration of intermittent renewables into the grid and into power markets. This will require significant new investment in grid infrastructure, load management and storage technologies.
Michael Liebreich, chief executive of Bloomberg New Energy Finance said: “The news right now is dominated by stories of pain caused by overcapacity on the supply side of clean energy, and the lure of cheap shale gas. But this is playing out against the falling costs of renewable energy and of all the technologies required to integrate it into our energy system, and falling costs win. What it suggests is that we are beyond the tipping point towards a cleaner energy future.”
More details on the three scenarios, and their implications for future energy markets, are available in the Global Renewable Energy Market Outlook fact pack. This will be available to the media on request.
Australia’s collective wellbeing has taken a backward step since the Coalition won office a year ago as national income declined, growth in our shared knowledge stalled and long-term unemployment rose.
The Fairfax-Lateral Economics wellbeing index, which puts a dollar figure on national wellbeing, fell by $2 billion in the June quarter and is $10.5 billion lower than a year earlier.
Wellbeing has now declined in four consecutive quarters for the first time since the global financial crisis. When gross domestic product declines for two consecutive quarters the economy is deemed to be in recession.
The index provides a deeper measure of national welfare than GDP by measuring changes in six key components: income, knowledge (called human capital), the environment, inequality, health and job satisfaction. GDP only measures the market value of all goods and services produced in the national economy during the year.
The findings of the wellbeing index – which declined by 2.8 per cent in the year to June – tells a different story to GDP, which grew by 0.5 per cent in the June quarter and 3.1 per cent for the year.
Growth in wellbeing far outpaced GDP growth during Julia Gillard’s time as prime minister. The index surged by 20 per cent in that period, a rate comparable to the booming growth rate of the Asian tiger economies like China and India. However, the index peaked just before last year’s election and has been on a downward trend ever since.
Tony Abbott became prime minister when the economy was in transition after a long mining investment boom that boosted growth and lifted household incomes.
The index’s creator, Nicholas Gruen, said it was picking up the negative consequences of that difficult economic transition better than GDP.
“We’re cranking up production at a reasonable rate, but the income we get from it is falling,” Dr Gruen said. “This helps explain why people seem more dissatisfied than the GDP numbers suggest they should be.”
Since the last election the unemployment rate has climbed from 5.7 per cent to a decade-high 6.4 per cent. The value of the exchange rate has also remained relatively high, despite falling commodity prices, putting a squeeze on Australian exporters.
While most factors driving the decline in wellbeing were beyond government control, Dr Gruen said some of the results were a “shot across the bow” of the federal government. One reason for the deterioration in wellbeing was a 5.2 per cent fall in the value of Australia’s collective knowledge in the year to June. The main reason for this was a decline in the proportion of adults with tertiary education.
“While it’s too early for this to be the result of any decisions made by the Abbott government, if its changes to higher education reduce the flow of post-secondary-qualified workers into the workforce, our wellbeing will be affected,” Dr Gruen said. “And our wellbeing index shows us [that] human capital really, really matters. It seems heretical to say it, but it matters more than micro-economic reform, as worthwhile as that can be.”
Another drag on wellbeing has been a slowdown in national income growth, arguably a better measure of economic wellbeing than GDP. Falling prices for Australia’s mining exports have helped reduce net national income in two of the past four quarters.
The index also draws attention to the wellbeing cost of long-term unemployment, which has climbed to about $3 billion following a steady rise in the number of people out of work for more than 12 months.
In May, there were 175,490 long-term unemployed people, or 1.43 per cent of the labour force, the highest proportion since April 2002. The loss of skills while being out of work over a long period is substantial.
“The wellbeing index tells us Mr Abbott became prime minister at a tricky time, with both the terms of trade and the growth of human capital falling,” Dr Gruen said.
High rates of obesity and untreated mental illness have become significant drags on national wellbeing.
The cost of obesity to the nation’s wellbeing reached $124.4 billion in the year to June, up 6.2 per cent. The annual wellbeing cost of untreated mental illness reached $192.4 billion, up 2.2 per cent on the previous year.