This policy framework was to be bolstered by Rudd’s personal popularity, Labor’s polling ascendancy over the Coalition and Rudd’s dominance over Tony Abbott as preferred prime minister.
As it turns out, the government is going into the winter break facing five important policy and political challenges that threaten marginal Labor seats in Western Australia, Queensland, NSW and perhaps even in Tasmania – and none of those challenges are anything like what Labor envisioned.
Even as the political failure on climate change became apparent and the backdown on the Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme unfolded, Labor was still maintaining that after May 11 – budget day – people would be talking only about health as a political issue.
The threats to Labor’s re-election at this stage, and that have yet to be dealt with, are: community concerns about illegal boat arrivals and population pressures; the dangers in the botched $2.45 billion home roofing insulation scheme; waste in the $16.2bn schools building program; the impact of the proposed resource super-profits tax on the economy; and Rudd himself.
These challenges must be dealt with against a backdrop of rising inflation and cost of living pressures, with the distinct possibility of at least one more interest rate rise before the election.
The truly remarkable thing about Labor’s situation is not that things have changed dramatically – the global financial crisis and the Asian financial crisis demonstrate that the world order can alter overnight – what is remarkable is that all of these wounds are self-inflicted.
The government and the Prime Minister have put themselves in a dire position through their own actions and inactions. Mixed messages have blurred where Labor stands and have often put both sides of an argument offside. Failed implementation has exposed a government under-prepared, panicky and inept. Management failures point to a refusal to listen or accept criticism, and rushed reactions suggest a preoccupation with immediate politics and public opinion.
Two days before he was elected, Rudd promised to “turn back the boats” as an answer to asylum-seekers and as an appeal to those who voted for John Howard because of tough border protection.
After the election the government talked up relatively minor relaxation of the treatment of asylum-seekers to appeal to the humanitarians and civil libertarians who became disaffected with the tough talk.
This public overreaction to compensate for little real change served only to attract the attention of people-smugglers and encourage illegal boat arrivals.
This then led to the unprecedented suspension of refugee applications from Sri Lankans and Afghans and the family exiles to remote desert camps, as the government once again emphasised a “tough on border protection” policy.
Yet, after Abbott re-entered the bidding war and said he’d re-introduce the Pacific Solution of offshore processing and would “turn back the boats”, Rudd said he wouldn’t follow the Liberal leader in a “race to the bottom” by promising to “turn back the boats”.
The Prime Minister’s linking of higher population, immigration and asylum-seekers has fused what should be separate elements into one issue.
The ongoing disaster of the roof insulation scheme is felt nationally and carries with it the potent threat of an insulation-related fire during the election campaign. This program was rushed through despite safety warnings and advice that the federal government was not equipped to manage the scheme.
It is a $2.45bn disaster that has directly affected one million Australians and outraged millions more. There is nothing the government can do about rectifying this problem and it remains hostage to housefires through to polling day.
Julia Gillard’s $16.2bnschool building program also was rushed and clearly has involved over-priced tendering, price rip-offs and wasted millions but, for various reasons, the intensity of the adverse reaction to the Building Education Revolution has been greatest in NSW and Queensland.
There is a general impression of a waste of taxpayers’ funds and a lack of value for money, but the BER debacle is least damaging to the government in Western Australia, South Australia and Tasmania. The taskforce set up to inquire into the program may assuage some criticism, but even the government concedes there is an embedded perception of waste that won’t offset good feelings about new buildings at local schools in some areas.
As the first real job losses attributed to the resource super-profits tax occur in Queensland, the government remains on the back foot trying to convince voters the mining companies don’t pay a fair share of tax, and that the implementation of the tax hasn’t been without grievous fault.
Unfortunately for Rudd and his leadership, all of these problems are sheeted home to him and his management style, with justification, and he has become one of Labor’s biggest challenges going into the election when once he was Labor’s greatest asset.
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