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  • Copenhagen diary: Strange delegation and Mugabe seated next to the queen

     

     

     

    Mr Phrakhrupaladsuathanavachirakhun

     

    The man with the best name at the conference is undoubtedly Mr Phrakhrupaladsuathanavachirakhun. He is a from the Dharma Drum Mountain Buddhist Association in New York. Meanwhile the campaigners are praying for a miracle, and who better than the Guyanan delegate Jesus Smith. Jesus?

     

     

    Bjørn regales the press

     

    Bjørn Lomborg, the Danish statistician and author of The Skeptical Environmentalist, has camped out on a sofa in the coffee bar of the media centre, presumably to better pounce on unwary journalists. We could not escape, and were regaled:

     

    This is a wholly failed process. Rio and Kyoto failed so why should this one be any different? To cut to 2C will cost $40 trillion a year by 2100 – 13% of GDP. Every dollar you spend, you do 2 cents worth of climate good.

     

    Thanks for that Bjørn.

     

     

    Off the map

     

    This morning the Alliance of Small Island States (Aosis), the association of 43 small island states, came up with its proposal for a massive cut in emissions. Too late, it seems. The vast UN globe right outside the Bella Centre does not include any of the small island states and delegates have taken to drawing in their own countries. Dessima Williams, the Aosis spokeswoman from Grenada, has now made a formal complaint to the UN. “We need to be on that map,” she says.

     

     

    Protocol problem

     

    Terrible problem for the Danes. It seems that protocol dictates that the head of state who has been in power the longest sits next to the Queen of Denmark at any formal state occasion. At the moment, this appears to be Robert Mugabe, who will clearly come with a plan to publicly embarrass the UK.

  • Australia may foot huge climate change bill for China

     

    But new Opposition finance spokesman Barnaby Joyce immediately attacked the proposal.

    “Essentially this Copenhagen plan means we borrow money from places like China to pay them to help them develop. I don’t think they need our help. They’re doing a very good job on their own.”

    Prime Minister Kevin Rudd has previously backed a separate $US10 billion climate fund in talks with US President Barack Obama and Mr Brown.

    Reports from Copenhagen say industrialised countries favour a target of 50 per cent reduction of global carbon emissions by 2020 (compared with 1990 levels), but major emerging economies led by China have baulked at any such target unless it is made clear that rich countries will assume most of the burden.

  • Feeling sceptical about Copenhagen? Read This

    Earth’s welfare sits upon a knife’s edge. The decisions made in the coming days could determine whether the human race survives and thrives, or lives out its days as a desperate rabble of rat-people, scrounging for food upon the dust-heaps and cyclone-swept garbage dumps of a bleak, godforsaken dystopia.

    And yet, I have found that many of the people I talk to don’t really understand what’s going on in Copenhagen. As such, it falls to intelligent people like me to explain things slowly and with small words to less intelligent people like you. And so, I will here attempt to answer all your Frequently Asked Questions About Copenhagen. We’ll begin at the beginning.

    Where is Copenhagen?
    Copenhagen is a picturesque seaside town in the great nation of Denmark (or “The Netherlands”, to give it its correct name), best-known as the home of Hans Christian Andersen and the world’s oldest amusement park, Dyrehavsbakken (in English, “the dire halfback”).

    It was selected as the location for this important summit due to its long history of commitment to environmental causes. This history is encapsulated in the form of the famous Little Mermaid statue in Copenhagen’s harbour, erected, of course, as a constant reminder of the grim consequences we may face should catastrophic climate change cause massive sea level rises and force us all to mate with fish.

    What is the point of the Copenhagen Summit?
    The Copenhagen Summit is a chance for leaders of all the world’s nations to get together in a comfortable, relaxed setting, and talk in extremely strong terms about the need for immediate and drastic action on climate change, with the aim of achieving deep cuts in global emissions and transitioning to a low-carbon economy, via a stringent and effective series of videos featuring young children having bad dreams.

    Look! The videos tell us. If you don’t do something about climate change, it may be YOUR children’s sleep patterns being disrupted. This technique is well established in international politics and follows in the footsteps of the “bogeyman in your underpants drawer” campaign which convinced the USA to enter World War II. If history has shown us one thing, it is that real and lasting change can only come about through well produced short films.

    There will also be negotiations on binding agreements to urgently lower emissions across the world, during which it will be agreed that nobody can do anything until China does.

    What is Australia’s role in the summit?
    Unfortunately, Kevin Rudd was unable to get his emissions trading scheme — which would have guaranteed both near-noticeable cuts in emissions in the next 50 years and a guaranteed secure future for our children working in open-cut coal mines — through the Senate. As a result, Australia could not arrive in Copenhagen with definitive legislation to show the world, and therefore Rudd will have to quickly come up with something else for the other countries to ignore.

    In a nutshell, Australia’s role is to act as a facilitator between the big polluters. Think of America as the handsome captain of the football team, and of China as the beautiful, unattainable principal’s daughter. It will be Australia’s job, as the short, unattractive chess club president, to pass surreptitious notes between them, saying things like, “I think ur hott — too much CO2?” and “Will you go out with me Sat. Bring solar panels,” until the two superpowers either reach an agreement, or split up and go off in a huff, ending with China dead in a car crash and America getting India pregnant.

    Hopefully Australia can really do a good job in bringing the giants together to solve this problem. Rudd has already made a good start, faxing all leaders a world map with Australia circled in red pen.

    What are the main obstacles?
    The obstacles to meaningful change fall into three broad categories:

    i) The need to slash emissions without dramatically lowering living standards;

    ii) The feeling among developing countries that they are being asked to stunt their own development to shoulder the burden of the big countries who emit more; and

    iii) The fact that nobody is actually going to do anything.

    All three of these will take some hard work and lateral thinking to overcome, but can all probably be solved by keeping one simple, elegant fact in mind: developing countries are nasty little dirtballs who will do what we tell them to. Three birds, one stone!

    What about the domestic political implications?
    This is rather tricky. Tony Abbott rose to the Liberal leadership on a platform of inaction on climate change, and has seemingly electrified the electorate with his dashing combination of scepticism and manic laughter, as demonstrated in the Higgins and Bradfield by-elections, where the Liberals stunned the nation with a crushing retention of the status quo.

    So where Australian climate change policy goes from here is anyone’s guess. Abbott, of course, described climate change as “crap”, to which deposed leader Malcolm Turnbull replied that Abbott’s policy was “bullshit”.

    So essentially, the Liberal policy boils down to a choice between crap and bullshit, giving substance to Abbott’s promise to return the party to classic Liberal values.

    Meanwhile, Kevin Rudd, who eschews such earthy language outside RAAF flights, has merely commented that Abbott is pursuing a “magic pudding policy”; which sounds pretty good. If Tony Abbott can introduce a new form of clean energy that not only never runs out, but is also accompanied by a singing koala, I’m pretty sure he’s home and hosed.

    What is “Climategate”?
    Climategate is a scandal involving the revelation of the fact that the media, once having got hold of a concept, will continue to flog it relentlessly for decade upon decade, no matter how annoying or sad it becomes. It would have been perfectly easy to call it “The Great Science Scam” or “The Curious Case of the Hidden Decline”, but no, we went with Climategate because we’re all just a bunch of soulless dead-eyed automatons trudging inexorably towards death, our last spark of originality and verve having been extinguished by the hideous zombie-virus we call “journalism”.

    But I digress. Climategate is also an affair in which scientists at the University of East Anglia were found to have sent emails to each other describing ways in which they withheld and distorted data for their own nefarious ends, and also amusing photographs of aroused monkeys. These emails prove conclusively that global warming is not happening, making the Copenhagen conference a bit of an anti-climax, really. The delegates will undoubtedly feel a bit sheepish when they find out, although to be honest, that cold day last week should have been a dead giveaway.

    On the plus side, it does mean all those round-the-world flights won’t have done any damage.

    What is the view of chemically imbalanced Australian opinion writers?
    Glad you asked. The Australian commentariat displays an exciting range of viewpoints. Well-known climatologist/film critic Andrew Bolt expresses the opinion that graphs demonstrate the futility of Copenhagen, while Piers Akerman claims to have conclusive proof that Labor’s ETS contains clauses making homosexual rape mandatory. Tim Blair, on the other hand, points out that Al Gore is fat, while Miranda Devine blames climate change on abortions and suggests abolishing speed limits as a solution. You could also check out the views of Clive Hamilton, but you probably wouldn’t like them much.

    What will be the consequences of a global agreement on climate change?
    The most obvious consequence, of course, will be the complete destruction of Australian industry, as energy costs skyrocket and everyone moves to Indonesia, which will not have signed up to the global agreement because they have Strong Leaders. This will leave much more room for the rest of us to stretch out and relax but we won’t be allowed to use coal, so we’ll be forced to rely on wind power, which is insufficient for baseload, so we’ll probably just end up going to bed really early. It’ll be good for us.

    The other major consequence will be the One World Government, which will force us at gunpoint to give it all our money, which will be spent on heroin injecting rooms. Barack Obama will be the president of this government, and will commence executing the elderly almost immediately.

    It is also possible that carbon emissions will be stabilised and catastrophic climate change will be averted, ushering in a new era of global cooperation and safe, clean energy to power the economies of the future. Then again, it’s possible that Wayne Swan will be caught in bed with Nikki Webster — it’s fine to hope for these things, but let’s not be stupid about it.

    Last question please!

    Why does Tim Flannery always seem so upset?
    He’s cranky through lack of sleep. Try to ignore him

  • The Physics of Copenhagen,Why Politics-as-usual May Mean the End of Civilization

     We need people taking strong positions to move issues forward, which is why I’m always ready to carry a placard or sign a petition, but most of us also realize that, sooner or later, we have to come to some sort of compromise.

    That’s why standard political operating procedure is to move slowly, taking matters in small bites instead of big gulps. That’s why, from the very beginning, we seemed unlikely to take what I thought was the correct course for our health-care system: a single-payer model like the rest of the world. It was too much change for the country to digest. That’s undoubtedly part of the reason why almost nobody who ran for president supported it, and those who did went nowhere.

    Instead, we’re fighting hard over a much less exalted set of reforms that represent a substantial shift, but not a tectonic one. You could — and I do — despise the insurance industry and Big Pharma for blocking progress, but they’re part of the game. Doubtless we should change the rules, so they represent a far less dominant part of it. But if that happens, it, too, will undoubtedly occur piece by piece, not all at once…

    …When it comes to global warming, however, this is precisely why we’re headed off a cliff, why the Copenhagen talks that open this week, almost no matter what happens, will be a disaster. Because climate change is not like any other issue we’ve ever dealt with. Because the adversary here is not Republicans, or socialists, or deficits, or taxes, or misogyny, or racism, or any of the problems we normally face — adversaries that can change over time, or be worn down, or disproved, or cast off. The adversary here is physics…

    Read full article

    Originally published December 6, 2009 on Tomgram and Huffington Post

  • Pressure on PM to triple emission cuts as nations force his hand

     

    Opening the conference, Danish Prime Minister Lars Lokke Rasmussen declared a successful deal was “within reach” and the executive secretary of the UN climate change convention, Yvo de Boer, said negotiations were in “excellent shape”.

    And international negotiators argued that the conditions placed by the Rudd government on making the deeper cuts had already been met. “It is pretty clear Australia will have to move well beyond 5 per cent,” one developed-nation negotiator said.

    The conference began last night with an announcement by the World Meteorological Organisation that this decade has likely been the warmest on record, and this year the fifth-warmest.

    An almost carnival-like atmosphere marked the opening of the two-week summit, as tens of thousands of non-government participants descended for hundreds of side events, in the conference centre and across Copenhagen.

    Behind the scenes, negotiators conceded a deal was by no means assured, with divisions remaining on national targets, but consensus emerging around a $10 billion-a-year “first step” fund to help developing countries cope with climate change that was already unavoidable.

    “Other countries in these negotiations are assuming Australia will cut by at least 15 per cent, that the 5 per cent unilateral target is not really on the table any more,” said Bill Hare, director of Climate Analytics and 20-year veteran of international climate negotiations.

    “That’s the basis on which they are making calculations about what they might be prepared to do,” he said.

    “The thresholds Australia set for action by other developed countries have certainly been met. The developing-country positions are more difficult . . . but the domestic policies announced by China and India would certainly more than meet Australia’s conditions.”

    But an international deal that includes a 15 per cent domestic target will cause problems for Tony Abbott, who has offered bipartisan support for Australia’s target range but has also conceded that his direct-action climate change policy will struggle to achieve cuts above the unilateral 5 per cent cut that Australia has promised even if the Copenhagen summit fails to reach agreement.

    A 15 per cent target would mean Australia would need to find an extra 50 million tonnes of CO2 abatement or more a year by 2020. The government and the Coalition have committed to a 15 per cent target under specific conditions, including aggregate emissions-reduction targets by developed countries of between

    15 and 25 per cent and strong measurable actions by developing countries.

    The offers on the table from developed countries add up to between 14 and 22 per cent cuts and developing countries have collectively pledged to cutting their emissions from business-as-usual levels by between 5 and 20 per cent. But whether these cuts will be internationally verified and

    accounted remains one of the most contentious issues at the negotiation.

    Negotiators have been trying to ratchet up one another’s emission reduction commitments in the final deal to be struck by the 110 global leaders, who will arrive in the Danish capital next week, so that it comes at least close to what scientists say is needed to limit global warming to 2C.

    “Old” Europe leaders are pushing hard for the EU to commit to its upper-end target of 30 per cent cuts by 2020 based on 1990 levels, a reduction that would still equate to more than 20 per cent when measured against Australia’s 2000 baseline, although this is being resisted by some Eastern European nations.

    “I want to create a situation in which the European Union is persuaded to go to 30 per cent,” British Prime Minister Gordon Brown said.

    Andreas Carlgren, Sweden’s Environment Minister and the EU’s chief negotiator under the rotating presidency, said the EU would hold out on announcing a higher target until the “end game” negotiation by leaders, and expected China and the US to increase their offers..

    But he said the targets proposed by the US (17 per cent cuts by 2020 based on 2005 levels, equivalent to 14 per cent measured against Australia’s baseline) and China (cuts in its emissions intensity of up to 45 per cent) — which between them represent half the world’s emissions — were too low.

    “I would rather expect the US President will deliver something further,” he said. And he warned that based on China’s growth rates, its offer would still result in large emission increases.

    US negotiators insist Mr Obama has no room to move beyond the 17 per cent cut, which is in line with the Waxman Markey legislation that has passed the House of Representatives but is slightly less than the Kerry Boxer bill before the Senate.

    But negotiators believe the US could offer a higher target based on actions taken in addition to what is achieved under the cap-and-trade scheme.

    And the decision by the US Environmental Protection Agency to declare it would start regulating six greenhouse gases as “dangerous pollutants” gives Mr Obama powerful leverage in the talks as it opens a way for him to meet emissions-reduction pledges, even if congress does not ultimately pass his scheme in its current form.

  • 968 arrests at Copenhagen rally

     

    Police made 968 arrests, including about 400 members of militant groups from across Europe known as Black Blocs. About 150 were released after questioning.

    Demonstrations were also held in Australia, Indonesia and the Philippines demanding tough measures by the 194 nations gathered at the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) conference.

    The summit is due to end on Friday with a gathering of more than 110 heads of state and government to seal a deal committing major economies to curb emissions of heat-trapping fossil-fuel gases and generate hundreds of billions in dollars for poor countries badly exposed to climate change.

    Connie Hedegaard, a former Danish climate minister chairing the summit said world leaders must not resist the global clamour.

    “It has taken years to build up pressure that we see around the world, and that we have also seen unfolding today in many capitals,” Hedegaard said.

    But many delegates complained that progress so far had been negligible and the mood soured by finger-pointing.

    A seven-page draft blueprint, presented on Friday, ran into problems almost immediately among developing countries, emerging giant economies, the United States and the European Union.

    Poor countries said it failed to spell out financial commitments while the United States complained it failed to bind China and other high-population, fast-growing economies to tough pledges on emissions.

    The European Union said the draft did not go far enough to limit warming to two degrees Celsius, a goal endorsed by many countries.

    “We are in a situation where we can see that so far we haven’t achieved enough,” Andreas Carlgren, environment minister of Sweden, which currently chairs the 27-nation European Union.

    The European Union has unilaterally decided to cut greenhouse-gas emissions by 20 per cent over 1990 levels, and has offered to deepen this to 30 per cent if it finds other major players willing to make a comparable effort.

    But Mr Carlgren ruled this out, blaming foot-dragging by the world’s top two carbon emitters.

    “So far we haven’t sufficient bids on the table,” he said. “So far the bids from the United States and China are not sufficient whereby we can deliver this 30 per cent.”

    Environment ministers from 48 countries were to meet through the weekend to discuss measures.

    “We still have a daunting task in front of us over the next few days,” she said.

    This weekend’s meetings mark the start of a gruelling game of climate poker before the arrival of heads of state and government on Wednesday and Thursday, many of whom will speak in the conference’s plenary session.

    Those expected to attend include US President Barack Obama, Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao, Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, Brazil’s President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama of Japan, and the heads of the European Union.

    Failure this coming Friday would deal a heavy blow to the nation-state system, Rajendra Pachauri, the head of the United Nations’ Nobel-winning panel of climate scientists, warned.

    “I think if we are able to get a good agreement, this would clearly create an enormous amount of confidence in the ability of human society to be able to act on a multilateral basis,” said Mr Pachauri, chairman of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).

    “If we fail, I don’t think everything is lost, but certainly it will be a major setback.”