Survey of supposed deep-sea chemical munitions dump off Southern California
Posted: 09 Dec 2013 09:45 AM PST
Researchers have described a preliminary seafloor survey of an area off the Southern California coast marked on charts as a chemical munitions site. The preliminary survey turned up trash and 55-gallon drums, but no chemical munitions.
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Monbiot.com |
One Rolex Short of Contentment
Posted: 09 Dec 2013 12:37 PM PST
Materialism promises satisfaction. It delivers despair.
By George Monbiot, published in the Guardian 10th December 2013
That they are crass, brash and trashy goes without saying. But there is something in the pictures posted on Rich Kids of Instagram (and highlighted by the Guardian last week(1)) that inspires more than the usual revulsion towards crude displays of opulence. There is a shadow in these photos – photos of a young man wearing all four of his Rolex watches(2), a youth posing in front of his helicopter(3), endless pictures of cars, yachts, shoes, mansions, swimming pools, spoilt white boys throwing gangster poses in private jets – of something worse; something that, after you have seen a few dozen, becomes disorienting, even distressing.
The pictures are, of course, intended to incite envy. They reek instead of desperation. The young men and women seem lost in their designer clothes, dwarfed and dehumanised by their possessions, as if ownership has gone into reverse. A girl’s head barely emerges from the haul of Chanel, Dior and Hermes shopping bags she has piled onto her vast bed(4). It’s captioned “shoppy shoppy” and “#goldrush”, but a photograph whose purpose is to illustrate plenty seems instead to depict a void. She’s alone with her bags and her image in the mirror, in a scene that seems saturated with despair.
Perhaps I am projecting my prejudices. But an impressive body of psychological research appears to support these feelings. It suggests that materialism, a trait that can afflict both rich and poor, which the researchers define as “a value system that is preoccupied with possessions and the social image they project”(5), is both socially destructive and self-destructive. It smashes the happiness and peace of mind of those who succumb to it. It’s associated with anxiety, depression and broken relationships.
There has long been a correlation observed between materialism, a lack of empathy and engagement with others, and unhappiness(6,7,8). But research conducted over the past few years appears to show causation.
For example, a series of studies published in June in the journal Motivation and Emotion showed that as people become more materialistic, their well-being (good relationships, autonomy, a sense of purpose and the rest) diminishes(9). As they become less materialistic, it rises.
In one study, the researchers tested a group of 18-year-olds, then re-tested them 12 years later. They were asked to rank the importance of different goals: jobs, money and status on one side, self-acceptance, fellow feeling and belonging on the other. They were then given a standard diagnostic test to identify mental health problems. At the ages of both 18 and 30, materialistic people were more susceptible to disorders. But if in that period they became less materialistic, their happiness improved.
In another study, the psychologists followed Icelanders weathering their country’s economic collapse. Some people became more focused on materialism, in the hope of regaining lost ground. Others responded by becoming less interested in money and turning their attention to family and community life. The first group reported lower levels of well-being, the second group higher levels(10).
These studies, while suggestive, demonstrate only correlation. But the researchers then put a group of adolescents through a church programme designed to steer children away from spending and towards sharing and saving. The self-esteem of materialistic children on the programme rose significantly, while that of materialistic children in the control group fell. Those who had little interest in materialism before the programme experienced no change in self-esteem(11).
Another paper, published in Psychological Science, found that people in a controlled experiment who were repeatedly exposed to images of luxury goods, to messages which cast them as consumers rather than citizens and to words associated with materialism (such as buy, status, asset and expensive), experienced immediate but temporary increases in material aspirations, anxiety and depression(12). They also became more competitive, more selfish, had a reduced sense of social responsibility and were less inclined to join demanding social activities. The researchers point out that as we are repeatedly bombarded with such images through advertisements, and constantly described by the media as consumers, these temporary effects could be triggered more or less continuously.
A third paper, published (ironically) in the Journal of Consumer Research, studied 2,500 people for six years(13). It found a two-way relationship between materialism and loneliness: materialism fosters social isolation; isolation fosters materialism. People who are cut off from others attach themselves to possessions. This attachment in turn crowds out social relationships.
The two varieties of materialism which have this effect – using possessions as a yardstick of success and seeking happiness through acquisition – are the varieties that seem to be on display at Rich Kids of Instagram. It was only after reading this paper that I understood why those photos distressed me: they look like a kind of social self-mutilation.
Perhaps this is one of the reasons why an economic model based on perpetual growth continues on its own terms to succeed, though it may leave a trail of unpayable debts, mental illness and smashed relationships. Social atomisation may be the best sales strategy ever devised, and continuous marketing looks like an unbeatable programme for atomisation.
Materialism forces us into comparison with the possessions of others, a race both cruelly illustrated and crudely propelled by that toxic website. There is no end to it. If you have four Rolexes while another has five, you are a Rolex short of contentment. The material pursuit of self-esteem reduces your self-esteem.
I should emphasise that this is not about differences between rich and poor: the poor can be as susceptible to materialism as the rich. It is a general social affliction, visited upon us by government policy, corporate strategy, the collapse of communities and civic life and our acquiescence in a system that is eating us from the inside out.
This is the dreadful mistake we are making: allowing ourselves to believe that more money and more stuff enhances our well-being, a belief possessed not only by those poor deluded people in the pictures, but by almost every member of almost every government. Worldly ambition, material aspiration, perpetual growth: these are a formula for mass unhappiness.
References:
1. http://www.theguardian.com/technology/2013/dec/06/selfies-status-updates-digital-bragging-web
2. http://richkidsofinstagram.tumblr.com/post/67779474838/dont-know-which-rolex-to-wear-so-hes-rocking
3. http://richkidsofinstagram.tumblr.com/post/63579216840/weekend-at-the-farm-robertsonpark-by
5. Monika A. Bauer et al, 2012. Cuing Consumerism: Situational Materialism Undermines Personal and Social Well-Being. Psychological Science 23: 517.
DOI: 10.1177/0956797611429579. http://pss.sagepub.com/content/23/5/517
7. Tamas Martos and Maria S. Kopp, 2012. Life Goals and Well-Being: Does Financial Status Matter? Evidence from a Representative Hungarian Sample. Social Indicators Research, 105: 561–568. DOI 10.1007/s11205-011-9788-7
9. Tim Kasser et al, 2013. Changes in materialism, changes in psychological well-being: Evidence from three longitudinal studies and an intervention experiment.
Motivation and Emotion. DOI 10.1007/s11031-013-9371-4
link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs11031-013-9371-4
10. Tim Kasser et al, 2013, as above.
11. Tim Kasser et al, 2013, as above.
12. Monika A. Bauer et al, 2012. Cuing Consumerism: Situational Materialism Undermines Personal and Social Well-Being. Psychological Science 23: 517.
DOI: 10.1177/0956797611429579. http://pss.sagepub.com/content/23/5/517
13. Rik Pieters, 2013. Bidirectional Dynamics of Materialism and Loneliness: Not Just a Vicious Cycle. Journal of Consumer Research,
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Illustration: John Shakespeare
What’s it like for the Japanese navy on patrol around the hotly contested islands, I asked the commander when he had a moment of respite on Sydney Harbour recently?
Was the Chinese navy a constant presence as it asserted Beijing’s ownership of the desolate islands, which Japanese call the Senkaku islands and the Chinese call the Daioyu, or was it a more relaxed affair? Captain Yoshihiro Goka, commander of the group of Japanese destroyers known as escort division three, suddenly grew very serious. “It is difficult,” he replied.
And then, without any further prompting from me, he added, with considerable emphasis: “But, if it is necessary, we will do it.”
The “it”, of course, is to go to war with China. That is the logical outcome of the continuous escalation that the two greatest Asian powers have been locked in for 15 months. Frontline commanders like Goka are braced for the real possibility that the dispute over the tiny group of islands will escalate all the way to conflict. There is no obvious circuit-breaker in view.
Since his remark in October, the struggle for primacy over the islands has escalated dramatically. Two weeks ago, China made its dramatic claim to airspace rights over the contested islands.
Its unilateral declaration of an Air Defence Identification Zone (ADIZ) over the disputed islands overlapped with the existing zones of Japan, South Korea and Taiwan. These three, plus the US and Australia, have refused to recognise China’s claim.
Since then, three further events have ratcheted the tension further. First, the air forces of the US, Japan and South Korea have all flouted China’s authority by flying through its newly declared ADIZ without giving the prior notice that Beijing demands.
Second, Japan’s parliament passed a resolution on Friday demanding Beijing cancel its declaration. Third, on the weekend South Korea expanded its ADIZ to further push into China’s claimed zone.
“The most pressing problem is the increased risk of accidents, or even the deliberate use of force, between military aircraft in the ADIZ,” says the International Crisis Group.
But what about the protocols for any incidents or accidents? The US and the Soviet Union had systems in place to prevent an accidental friction or moment of hotheadedness from escalating into unintended war. Wouldn’t they kick in?
In China’s case, there are no such protocols. The US has spent years trying to persuade China to agree to such “rules of the road,” but Beijing is not interested. This implies that China, as a matter of policy, wants to keep the risk of war in play.
A former US official, with experience of dealing with Beijing on this issue, confirms that China uses the risk of accident as an implicit threat: “They are saying to us, in effect, you are speeding and we don’t want to give you seat belts.”
Nobody wants a full-scale war, but nobody is stepping back from the brink either. The national pride and prestige of the two principal disputants here, China and Japan, has been engaged. Both countries are led by strong nationalists. And there are no seat belts.
In one sense, this is a dreadful prospect. A war between the second- and third-biggest economies in the world, even a limited war, is a shocking prospect. The pair are not only economically strong; both boast fearsome military might, too.
A war between China and Japan would likely draw Australia in, too. The US has repeatedly stressed that the islands, administered by Japan since the 1970s, are covered by the terms of its treaty with Tokyo. If the islands were attacked, the US would be bound to come to Tokyo’s aid. Australia, America’s uniquely reliable ally, would probably join, too.
But in another sense, this is a very routine prospect. In the last three centuries, the rise of a great power has always led to war. The thrusting new power demands more rights, a bigger say, the satisfaction of historical grudges. It challenges the status quo. The existing powers resist. War ensues.
China has been pressing steadily outwards on its borders for years, intimidating countries including the Philippines, Vietnam and now Japan. It’s a relentless incremental expansion that Brahma Chellaney, of the Centre for Policy Research in Delhi, describes as “creeping, covert warfare”.
In these circumstances, what should responsible neighbours and partners do?
Britain’s David Cameron, who was in China last week as the Sino-Japanese crisis escalated, showed exactly what not to do. “David Cameron could scarcely have crouched any lower during this week’s visit to China,” wrote a Financial Times columnist, Philip Stephens.
Cameron thought this might help him sell more British exports to China. China’s state-owned media laughed at him; the nationalist Global Times sent Cameron off with the dismissal that Britain was “an old European country” that is only a destination for Chinese people to study and travel. Britain, it said, was “not a big power in the eyes of the Chinese”.
Australia’s Foreign Affairs Minister, Julie Bishop, on the other hand, was forthright in criticising China’s destabilising recklessness. Her Chinese counterpart dressed her down publicly on the weekend.
Bishop has not retreated, nor should she. Australia has a vital interest in regional peace and stability. China and Japan are on the brink of armed conflict. Captain Goka and his Chinese counterparts are braced for it.
Responsible governments everywhere should recognise the stakes, counsel restraint and seek ways to prevent escalation.
Seven cliff-top homes collapsed in Hemsby, NorfolkA major clean-up operation is continuing on the east coast of England after 1,400 homes were flooded in the worst storm surge for 60 years.
Environment secretary Owen Paterson has visited damaged properties at Boston in Lincolnshire.
He expressed his “profound sympathy” for those people affected and said the government was committed to improving flood defences.
A number of flood alerts remain in the Anglia area.
Mr Paterson said: “Many people have had their lives turned upside down and are showing great resolve dealing with these exceptional floods.
“Some places saw the sort of weather conditions which only occur every 500 years, but flood defences have meant that 800,000 properties were protected.
First came the storm – now come the questions.
Who will clear the five homes at Hemsby that fell off the cliff? Are the residents covered by their insurance? And will the village now receive any money for better flood defences?
Along the beach, local people wearing high visibility jackets rattle charity tins shouting “Save Hemsby coastline”.
On the sand, next to the broken and battered chalets, two police officers stand guard, making sure people don’t get too close.
The homes wrecked in Thursday night’s tidal surge have quickly become the village’s latest attraction. Visitors have brought their children to take a look, amateur and professional photographers click away.
But behind the spectacle are real people who now have to find new homes. Some chalets were holiday homes but not all of them and some residents have been left with nothing.
“We are increasing budgets on flood defences. In the course of this parliament, this government will be spending more than any previous government on flood defences.
“The focus is now rightly on getting people back in their homes as quickly as possible.”
In Norfolk, one of the places hardest hit by the surge, Norman Lamb, MP for north Norfolk, met with residents in Walcott earlier.
He said: “It’s a bit like a war zone there’s a lot of debris on the road there are people down there doing the best they can at clearing out their homes.
“It’s pretty devastating for the people involved and some people don’t have insurance and have lost everything.”
Hundreds of grey seals have also been lost on the north Norfolk coast because of the deadly storm surge, experts said.
Insurers are expecting many claims over damage to homes and businesses, two months after storms in southern England led to payouts of £130m.
Malcolm Tarling, of the Association of British Insurers (ABI), urged those affected to contact insurers straight away.
He said a number of insurance companies were already in some of the worst-hit areas and would be checking their records and calling customers as their priority was “to get claims moving as quickly as possible”.
The largest North Sea surge since the devastating floods of 1953 hit the north Norfolk coast early on Thursday evening and headed south through the night.
Seven cliff-top homes collapsed in Hemsby, Norfolk, where a lifeboat station was washed into the sea, and there was flooding in Whitby in North Yorkshire.
Homes along the Humber Estuary in northern Lincolnshire and East Yorkshire were also affected.
Continue reading the main story
The clean-up after flooding in South Ferriby, north Lincolnshire, began on Friday‘Complete mess’
The Atlantic storm, which brought coastal flooding and gale-force winds of up to 100mph, caused widespread disruption across the UK and claimed the lives of two men – in West Lothian, Scotland, and in Retford, Nottinghamshire.
In Scarborough people “wave dodging” close to railings and sea walls during the tidal surge and high tides in North Yorkshire have been criticised.
About a third of the sea defences in part of Scarborough’s North Bay were damaged by the tidal surge that hit the region.
Villagers rallied round to help a couple salvage what they could before their home was swept away
Scottish Hydro said on Friday that engineers were still working to restore power to 1,500 customers in Scotland.
About 1,800 homes were evacuated on Friday evening in the village of Wyberton near Boston, because of fears of flooding following damage to flood defences. However, local authorities said high tide had passed without incident.
More than 100 properties remain without power in Cumbria.
Meanwhile, a major clean-up operation has been getting under way.
Steve Hewett, the coxswain of Hemsby Lifeboat, told the BBC people had been pulling together to help those who had lost everything.
“It’s a complete mess. We’ve had several buildings and bits of concrete blocks… being broken up and pushed down the coast. And they’re now scattered all over the beach.
“There’s roofs off buildings and sides of buildings – all the equipment out of buildings has literally been scattered all the way down the coast.”
A Chinook helicopter has been aiding repairs of flood defences at Seal Sands on Teesside which were damaged in Thursday’s stormThe EA said 800,000 homes in England had been protected by flood defences and better forecasting had given people “vital time” to prepare.
It described the tidal surge as “the most serious” for more than 60 years but said there was “a vastly improving picture” as flood waters receded in many affected areas.
The agency said sea levels had earlier peaked at 5.8m (19ft) in Hull – the highest seen by the East Yorkshire city since 1953 – and 4.7m (15ft) in Dover, Kent, the highest recorded there in more than 100 years.
Dr Paul Leinster, Environment Agency chief executive, said: “Our thoughts remain with those people who have been affected by flooding. The number of flood warnings is now reducing. However, Environment Agency teams remain on the ground to check flood risk management assets including barriers and to monitor sea levels.
“Advances in weather and flood forecasting mean that early warnings of the tidal surge were given to emergency services, homes and businesses, allowing vital time to prepare.”
‘Hugely traumatic’
Mary Dhonau, the chair of the Flood Protection Association, which represents flood victims, told the BBC her heart “absolutely goes out to everyone who has been flooded”.
She said her home had been flooded on many occasions and “having to stand back and watch your home turn into a building site is a hugely traumatic experience”.
Insurance companies had “improved an awful lot” since the floods of 2007 but people were still “frightened” about insurance premiums.
The ABI’s Mr Tarling told the BBC one event was “unlikely” to push up insurance premiums across the board but could impact on the renewal premiums of those who had made large claims.
Elsewhere, hurricane-force winds and tidal surges killed at least five people in northern Europe and caused flooding and travel disruption.
Weather forecasters say the low pressure responsible for the stormy conditions has now moved away from the UK.
The Met Office says rain across central and western areas will push east overnight but conditions are turning drier for most areas.
In pictures: Storms hit the UKLatest pictures of damage from storm and surge
Counting the cost of tidal surge WatchCommunities in the east of England are starting the clean-up after what the Environment Agency said was the worst tidal surge for 60 years.
06 DECEMBER 2013, UK
Ambulances ‘face long delays at A&E’Some patients are facing long waits in ambulances outside A&E departments, with one case involving a delay of more than six hours, figures show.
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THE State Government has controversially removed sea level rises from planning policy so as not to inhibit development and to allow councils greater independence in deciding development issues.
The move has been dubbed a major legal and insurance nightmare, with the potential to send councils broke because a forecast 0.8m rise by 2100 has the potential to cause billions of dollars in damage.
Although 35,000 Queensland homes are at risk of inundation, Deputy Premier Jeff Seeney said the Government would not apply an arbitrary, blanket ruling on sea levels.
“We believe local governments are the best placed to make planning decisions according to their local circumstances and their communities and we are empowering them to do so,” Mr Seeney said.
“Under the State Planning Policy, the State will still require councils to consider coastal storm surges and other natural hazards in preparing their local planning schemes.
“Queensland is not alone in adopting this approach. The NSW Government determined the same policy framework for their planning schemes a year ago.”
Local Government Association of Queensland chief executive Greg Hallam said the issue was a legal minefield.
He said it could send councils broke and impact on residents because it might not be possible to insure properties in low-lying areas in future.
If the Government chose not to accept sea level rises, then councils should receive indemnity.
“We’ve been very clear on this. The Government can’t have it both ways,” he said. “If they don’t think sea level rises will occur, fine, indemnify us.”
Opposition environment spokeswoman Jackie Trad said the Government had abandoned any pretence of believing in or planning for the effects of any climate change.
“Because the Newman Government is refusing to act on climate change, future generations will have to pay the cost of coastal rehabilitation and repairing or relocating infrastructure and property damaged as a result of sea level rises,” she said.
The Climate Commission has warned that scientific consensus on warming leading to sea level rises, heatwaves, bushfires and drought has strengthened.
Mr Hallam said the LGAQ accepted that sea level rises occurred but no one knew to what level they might go.
Ms Trad said developers would not have to deal with the consequences of bad planning laws, it would be average Queenslanders who would pay higher taxes and struggle to find home insurance.
Mr Hallam said the LGAQ as an organisation also was exposed because it owned Local Government Mutual Liability, the council insurer.
Mr Seeney declined to say whether he believed in sea level rises, if councils would be indemnified or who would pay for development which might be impacted.
“…People should have the right to make up their own minds as to whether or not they’d like to live and work close to the ocean,” he said.
A leaked Property and Infrastructure Cabinet Committee paper says: “Any local government that elects to include some allowance for sea level rise in their planning schemes will need to justify that the state interests relating to economic development are not materially affected by this.”
The worst hit areas are deemed to be Cairns, Mackay, Hervey Bay and the Gold Coast.
Mr Seeney said the SPP was landmark reform that would revolutionise the way councils, the development and construction industry and the State worked together.
A new study for the first time found links between the rapid loss of snow and sea ice cover in the Arctic and a recent spate of exceptional extreme heat events in North America, Europe, and Asia. The study adds to the evidence showing that the free-fall in summer sea ice extent and even sharper decline in spring snow cover in the Northern Hemisphere is reverberating throughout the atmosphere, making extreme events more likely to occur.
The study, published Sunday in the journal Nature Climate Change, is the first to find correlations between rapid Arctic warming and extreme summer weather events, since previous research had focused on the links between Arctic warming and fall and winter weather patterns.
While the study adds to the body of evidence pointing to the outsized role the Arctic is playing in shaping weather patterns, it won’t end the debate within the scientific community over whether and how what is happening in the Far North could be having such far-reaching impacts.
There is virtually no controversy among climate scientists and meteorologists that massive changes have occurred in the Arctic environment during the past three decades, and that those changes are largely due to manmade greenhouse gas emissions.
Since the 1980s, Arctic sea ice extent has dropped at a rate of about 8 percent per decade during September, which is when the sea ice cover reaches its annual minimum. A record minimum was set in 2012. For a size comparison, consider that the area of summer sea ice lost since the 1980s would cover about 40 percent of the continental U.S., the study said.
Spring snow cover extent loss during June has dropped even more precipitously than sea ice cover, the study found, at a rate of about 18 percent per decade since 1979.
The reasons why the Arctic is warming so quickly — a phenomenon known as Arctic amplification — has to do with factors that are unique to the Arctic environment, involving feedbacks between sea ice, snow, water vapor and clouds. As the area warms in response to manmade greenhouse gases, melting ice and snow allow exposed land and water to absorb more of the Sun’s heat, which melts more ice and snow, and so on. A relatively small amount of initial warming can be greatly magnified in the Far North.
It is also widely agreed that the world has seen a spate of extreme heat events in recent years, such as the 2011 Texas heat wave and drought and the deadly 2010 heat wave in Russia, and that global warming made some of these events more likely to occur and more severe.
But scientific consensus breaks down when it comes to the issue of whether Arctic warming is altering weather patterns in the northern midlatitudes, stacking the deck in favor of extreme weather events.
On one side of the issue are some meteorologists and climate scientists who in their studies have found correlations between the vanishing Arctic sea ice and snow cover (collectively known as the cryosphere) and weather patterns that can lead to extreme weather events.
On the other side are other climate scientists and meteorologists who, while convinced that manmade climate change is having profound impacts on the planet, don’t yet see clear physical science evidence showing that Arctic warming is changing the already chaotic nature of weather patterns, and leading to extreme weather events.
James Overland, a researcher at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), said the split in the scientific community is an unusual one.
“The skeptics (of the link between Arctic warming and extreme weather events) actually tend to be some of the real top midlatitude dynamics climate scientists,” Overland said in an interview. “They’re looking at the chaos of the long-wave atmospheric pattern and it’s really hard to see why modest additional forcing in the Arctic can overwhelm all the energy that’s in that chaotic pattern.”
It’s all in the jet stream
The case for a connection between Arctic warming and summertime extreme weather events rests on the Arctic’s crucial role as a pacesetter and shapemaker of the jet stream, the powerful ribbon of upper level winds that steer weather systems from west to east across the Northern Hemisphere.
Because the temperature contrast between the frigid Arctic and the milder mid-latitudes is what drives the powerful jet stream winds that guide weather systems, what happens in the Arctic is bound to have some sort of influence on the world’s weather.
NASA computer model animation showing the evolution of a large dip in the jet stream.
The new study, along with other previously published research, showed that the decline in sea ice and snow cover has slowed the west-to-easterly component of the jet stream, thereby enhancing the north-to-south waviness of the jet, which leads to the creation of more stagnant or “blocked” weather patterns. In addition, the new study found an association between sea ice and snow cover decline and a northward shift in the jet stream, which allows more warm air to move into the U.S. and Europe during the summer.
Paradoxically, other studies, including work by the same team of researchers, has shown that Arctic warming can actually enhance cold weather extremes in the U.S. and Europe during the winter.
Jennifer Francis, a meteorologist at Rutgers University, co-author of the new study, and the most prominent proponent of the hypothesis that Arctic warming is leading to more extreme weather events, told Climate Central that this study adds further evidence to the growing body of research supporting her team’s conclusions.
“While an observational study cannot pin down the mechanistic cause of the response, our results show a strong relationship between ice and snow losses during summer with heat waves in mid-latitude continents where billions of people are affected,” Francis said in an email conversation.
But the lack of statistically significant results and, more important, the absence of evidence pointing to a smoking gun — a physical mechanism in the climate system that ties Arctic changes to extreme events — has left many top climate researchers unconvinced that rapid Arctic warming is a major player in causing extreme weather events outside of the Arctic itself.
The result, some of these scientists told Climate Central, is a series of hypotheses that have not yet been fully tested.
“I would have more confidence in the linkage being ‘real’ if there was a well-understood and proven mechanism to support the correlations,” James Screen, a climate researcher at the University of Exeter in the U.K., saud in an email. “The arguments presented are plausible, but in my opinion the evidence presented is far from conclusive (to put it mildly).”
Kevin Trenberth, a senior scientist at the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colo., said the new study and others like it have failed to show statistically significant results. Additionally, he said they lack the physical evidence of what are known as “dynamical links,” — physical ties within elements of the Earth’s climate system, such as the upper oceans and lower atmosphere — between Arctic warming and extreme events.
“There is no plausible physical mechanism or analysis of how the atmosphere is forced to behave in this manner,” Trenberth said in an email.
Further adding to the divide within the climate science community is the fact that many of the climate models that Trenberth and others often use do not show the sorts of changes in the jet stream that the new study and others like it have pointed to, including the more frequently stagnated or “blocked” weather patterns that Francis cited. In fact, many of the newest generation of climate models show that atmospheric blocking will become less common in the North Atlantic than it is now.
“We need more case studies, and more direct dynamics studies rather than just correlation studies,” Overland said.
Overland pointed to the International Arctic Science Committee, which is making this a key focus of its research agenda during the next year. The International Arctic Science Committee is part of the World Meteorological Organization,
Judah Cohen, lead seasonal weather forecaster at AER, a weather and climate consulting firm, said the possibility that Arctic climate change is leading to more extreme weather patterns has initiated a flurry of new studies. “I can tell you that I am busier now reviewing journal papers than I have ever been in my career and they are all on sea ice” he said in an email. “I think this will be a dominant area of research and discourse for years to come.”
For her part, Francis is continuing to keep a wary eye on the weather map, convinced that the evidence for Arctic-induced weather extremes will continue to mount.
“As we continue to emit ever-increasing amounts of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere and as the Arctic continues to warm faster than mid-latitudes, we will see the case for the linkage strengthen,” Francis said. “I expect that with every year we will see a clearer response of weather patterns in all four seasons, and new modeling experiments will help elucidate the links in the chain, as well.”
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