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  • You know something is deeply wrong when kids no longer quote player statistics, they quote betting odds.

    Dear Inga ,

    You know something is deeply wrong when kids no longer quote player statistics, they quote betting odds.

    Just like overpriced pastry goods and a crowded train ride home, taking the kids to the footy is now inextricably linked with exposure to gambling. Whether it’s constant updates on live odds or watching Tom Waterhouse sign autographs at half time, seeing gambling in sport is unavoidable. Kids can’t even watch the game at home without being inundated by ads urging people to have a punt.

    You may have seen that yesterday the Government outlined a plan to ban broadcasting of odds and gambling ads during play. It’s a great start. But tomorrow the ALP Caucus is meeting to debate a suggestion by Stephen Jones MP that would flat-out ban all gambling advertising during all sports broadcasts except for horse racing and the greyhounds. Even better!

    What MPs hear from their local constituents today could really tip the balance tomorrow. What will their staff advise your MP before the meeting tomorrow? How about: “Boss, seriously, we got 600 emails about that yesterday. Voters would love it if we went further!”

    You know what to do. Click the below link to contact your local ALP MP or Senator before tomorrow’s debate:

    http://www.getup.org.au/sport-without-gambling

    Since the start of the footy season, bookmaker Tom Waterhouse has increased his TV advertising budget by 340%. [1] Parents and communities are taking notice and have made it clear that it’s time our sports are cleaned up and rid of gambling’s insidious presence.

    It’s thanks to tireless campaigning from communities and leaders around Australia that we’ve even gotten this far. A full ban is supported by tireless gambling crusaders like the Rev. Tim Costello, and is being championed in Canberra by Independent Senator Nick Xenophon, Andrew Wilkie MP and the Greens’ Senator Richard DiNatale. It’s also backed by South Australian Premier Jay Weatherill.

    Will you ask Caucus members to deliver real reform, and take Australia’s great sporting codes back from the gambling companies?

    http://www.getup.org.au/sport-without-gambling

    GetUp members have rallied to protect vulnerable members of our society from exploitation by the gambling industry many times before, whether by diving the national ‘Stop the Loss’ campaign for pokies reform, lobbying to limit pokies bets to $1 a spin, and forcing Woolworths – Australia’s largest poker machine owner – to confront the issue by holding an Extraordinary General Meeting. Sports gambling advertising could lead to a new generation of problem gamblers unless we speak up now.

    Despite what we’ve seen in recent months, gambling has never been a central feature of any code of football, nor should it be.
    Let’s beat the odds and ban the ads.

    Thanks for all that you do,
    Erin, for the GetUp team.


    GetUp is an independent, not-for-profit community campaigning group. We use new technology to empower Australians to have their say on important national issues. We receive no political party or government funding, and every campaign we run is entirely supported by voluntary donations. If you’d like to contribute to help fund GetUp’s work, please donate now! If you have trouble with any links in this email, please go directly to www.getup.org.au. To unsubscribe from GetUp, please click here. Authorised by Sam Mclean, Level 2, 104 Commonwealth Street, Surry Hills NSW 2010.

  • Impact of coastal erosion in Australia

    Impact of coastal erosion in Australia

     

    As a follow up to the Impending Coastal Crisis feature we posted earlier this week, Senior Coastal Scientist at Coastalwatch Professor Andrew Short has compiled a comprehensive piece focusing on coastal erosion in Australia.

    For the 50% of the Australian coast that is composed of sand and in some places mud, the shoreline is prone to change, building seaward and in some places eroding landward. In most locations this is a natural process with usually no impact on human settlement. Coastal protection of the shoreline is rarely required in Australia, however in a few locations the dynamic shoreline has become a problem, in some cases a major and expensive problem, and in almost all of these cases the problem is related to human interference or encroachment on the shoreline. Coastal protection works, such as breakwaters, groynes, or seawalls, are usually built to guard against erosion. In doing so they harden the coast and reduce its ability to adjust naturally. As a consequence, these defences can exacerbate further erosional problems, with seawalls reflecting and concentrating wave energy and erosion, and groynes starving downdrift the coast of sediment thereby leading to further erosion. There are areas where human have encroached into the dynamic beach environment only to suffer the consequences, and others where they have interfered with coastal processes leading to accelerated coastal erosion.

    Sand dredging at Currumbin Photo: Bartles
    Much of the shoreline of the rapidly expanding tropical city of Cairns appears especially vulnerable. The popular marina area and the hub of Cairns has encroached on Trinity Inlet and formerly mangrove-covered mudflats along the seafront are now bare and lined with seawalls, backed by development close to sea level. Much of Cairns is also built on a coastal plain, part of the Barron River delta, with the mangrove-lined tidal creeks that meandered through these plains all that remain. These are inundated at highest tides and demonstrate that critical infrastructure, such as the airport, lie close to present high tide level (as is often also the case with other airports, such as those at Brisbane and Sydney). At this level much of the coastal plain and city would be inundated by a 2.5 m storm surge calculated to accompany a 1 in 100 year storm, whereas dating sequences of coral rubble ridges deposited by large storms on nearby islands indicate that considerably larger events than those known from the past 200 years have recurred frequently over past millennia. The north Cairns coast along Yorkys Knob-Machans-Holloway beaches is lined with seawalls because much of the shoreline has been retreating, on a coast that in the long-term is building seaward as the Barron River delta progrades. The problem here is both the dynamic shoreline of the delta, which switches channels, has major floods and accompanying pulses of sediment, on a coast exposed to periodic tropical cyclones, all of which produces a highly dynamic shoreline. Roads and houses have been built on parts of the coast which will periodically be reclaimed by the sea, as well as periodically protected by wide beaches. Finally, when climate change is considered, the already perilously low-lying developments in Cairns are at considerable risk to inundation, as discussed in the next section.

    Cairns waterfront – low, eroding & vulnerable
    Australia’s best known strip of defended coastline, and a major holiday destination for local, national and international tourists, is the 35 km between the New South Wales-Queensland border at Point Danger and the Nerang Inlet, better known as the Gold Coast.

    Here is a system that is part of a northerly conveyor belt of sand moving north from New South Wales across the border at a rate estimated at 500 000 m3/yr. In 1962-64 the Tweed River training walls were extended for navigation, 400 m out to sea. The southern wall blocked the movement of sand, which built out the adjacent Letitia Spit by 250 m, in the process trapping millions of cubic metres of sand and preventing it from moving across the border and along the Gold Coast beaches.

    As the sand supply was depleted, combined with a series of severe cyclones (Dinah, Barbara, Dulcie, Elaine and Glenda) in 1967, 8 million cubic metres of sand was eroded from the beaches and threatened the backing Gold Coast roads, houses and hotels. The solution has been threefold. First a continuous terminal seawall was built the length of the coast and covered with sand and dunes. Second between 1995 and 2000 3.5 million cubic meters of sand was dredged from the Tweed Bar and placed offshore of the southern Gold Coast beaches. Third, a permanent pumping system was built just south of the training wall, which since 2000 has pumped more than 500 000 m3 of sand each year from New South Wales across the border onto the Gold Coast beaches. In 2007 these beaches were as wide was they have ever been. However it has all come at a cost in the tens of millions of dollars.

    Sand pumping at Cooly/Tweed Photo: Bartles
    A similar training wall built between 1960-66 at the mouth of the Brunswick River, 50 km to the south, to service the small fishing fleet. Studies have shown that the walls impacted the beach to the north and south. The beach built it out for 8 km updrift, while erosion was observed to extend up to 17 km downdrift, with the shorelines not stabilising until 1987. The largest impacts were close to the wall with the small beachfront community of Sheltering Palms, located 2 km north of the wall, experiencing up to 90 m of shoreline erosion which resulted in some houses, roads and telegraph poles ending up in the surf zone and finally abandonment of the entire village by the mid 1970’s. Unlike the Gold Coast, this area did not warrant the massive expenditure on protection, so it was sacrificed.

    Bruns river mouth Photo: Dan Wyer
    Coastal erosion, particularly associated with a cluster of east coast cyclones, has occurred at several points along the New South Wales coast. Dressing sheds at Manly were broken up by waves in 1913 and the North Steyne SLSC in Manly was severely damaged in 1950. The jetty at Byron Bay was removed in 1972, and ad hoc coastal protection was attempted at Belongil Spit with car bodies dumped to try to halt the erosion of sand. The 1974 storms, estimated as a 1:200 year event, destroyed the harbour side Manly pier and resulted in loss and damage of property and roads being cut at several points along the Sydney and south coast; elsewhere they were the first stage of erosion, with subsequent storms actually undermining property, as with the three houses that were destroyed during a storm in 1978 at Wamberal.

    NSW Wamberal Beach 1978, three house fall into sea Photo: Andrew Short
    Wamberal Beach Photo: Andrew Short
    Collaroy Beach on Sydney’s northern beaches is a classic example of inappropriate planning and shoreline subdivision that took place more than 100 years ago. The original property boundaries extend, and still do, down across the dune onto the beach, with most of the houses and now some high rises built on the beach-dune area. The consequences were entirely predictable, every time the beach retreated during high seas, the then beach shacks were undermined. Major erosion occurred in 1920, seven shacks fell into the sea in 1944-5, and one was washed out to sea in 1967. Following the 1945 storms the council voted to resume the remaining houses. Instead, within ten years the first block of flats was built and soon after the first high-rise, which in turn was undermined by the 1967 storms. More high rises followed, the next built just in time to be undermined by the 1974 storms. Here the council has allowed initial development in a hazard zone, and later massive over-development even after houses had been washed away. Collaroy remains a problem area with most of the affected properties fronted by makeshift seawalls. The council has started slowly buying back some properties and hopes the state government will allow massive beach nourishment at some time in the future. In the meantime every big sea removes the narrow beach and exposes the unsightly and hazardous seawalls on one of Sydney’s premier beaches.

    Wetherill St Collaroy/Sth Narrabeen. Real estate potentially threatened. Photo: Andrew Short
    Warilla Beach just south of Port Kembla was sacrificed to protect a row of low cost houses. Like Collaroy the houses had been built too close to the shoreline on the formerly active foredune. The volume of sand on the beach, already depleted through mining for export in the 1960s, was further reduced because longshore processes carried a proportion into the entrance to Lake Illawarra when the entrance lay to the south of a tombolo connected to an offshore island. Any sand returned by tidal processes leaked onto Perkins beach to the north when the tombolo closed off Warilla Beach, acting as a trapdoor. Finally when the 1974 storms threatened the houses, the council responded by building a rock seawall along the southern half of the beach, replacing the public beach with rock, even the surf club had to be moved. This example of poor planning has only been remediated recently when further works at the lake’s entrance, in an effort to keep it permanently open, led to significant nourishment of the beach. A series of storms generated by east coast lows in June and July 2007 however severely truncated the beach as the sand was being pumped south, providing an ominous warning of the likely long-term fate of the rebuilt beach.

    Warrilla – seawall built the length of beach, surf club had to close and move Photo: Andrew Short
    The rocky shores of New South Wales appear much more resistant against erosion. Locally however there are concerns about rock falls and public safety, as at Bilgola, Newport and Narrabeen headlands in Sydney. An exception is the steep cliffs at Coalcliff, first named by Flinders and Bass, where landslides are associated with the claystones and shales that are interbedded with the sandstones. The continual damage to Lawrence Hargrave Drive and the threat of falling rocks, led to the construction of the spectacular Seacliff bridge, a 665 m stretch of road that is built out from the cliff face over extensive rock platforms.
    Most of the Victorian coast is protected by a foreshore reserve, however at Portland the reserve was not wide enough to protect a stretch of beach known as the Dutton Way. Here problems started when a breakwater was completed in 1960 to expand the port of Portland, thereby interrupting the easterly movement of sand to the downdrift Dutton Way beach. As the beach began retreating threatening a road a seawall was commenced in 1970. Since then the wall has continue to follow the erosion to the east and now winds it way along the shore for 4.5 km. Low-lying areas around the Gippsland lakes are subject to flooding, particularly after the artificial opening of the Gippsland Lakes in 1889. Flooding in 2007 after intense rainfall over the catchments that drain into the lake was exacerbated at high tide and inundated much of Lakes Entrance.

    Dutton Way at Portland, the seawall just keeps growing Photo: Andrew Short
    Dutton Way, Portland Photo: Andrew Short
    The Adelaide metropolitan beaches have been experiencing erosion for decades, as a result of the natural 40,000-50,000 m3/yr northerly sand transport, exacerbated by dieback of nearshore seagrass meadows as a consequence of sewage pollution; and further aggravated by some roads and structured located too close to the shore. The erosion has been managed both by the construction of 14 kilometres of seawalls and the trucking of sand from the northern end of the system back to the south, and more recently pumping sand onshore from nearshore sand deposits. Maintenance of these metropolitan beaches continues at significant cost; but it has been possible to sustain the natural values of the coast, even re-establishing dunes in front of the esplanade at Brighton.

    Adelaide beaches – eroding & protected by seawalls & nourishment Photo: Andrew Short
    In a political decision that will ensure South Australia has generations of coastal problems the South Australian government in 1990 voted to freehold hundreds of beach shacks, many built close to or on the beaches and in low lying erosion and flood-prone areas. Now the shacks are freeholded it will be up to the government and taxpayers to maintain these unsightly ribbon developments and to try and protect these properties as they become increasingly exposed to shoreline erosion and sea level rise.

    Lucky Bay – typical of the poorly sited shacks, now freeholded Photo: Andrew Short
    In contrast the Western Australian government has been successively removing the many hundreds of beach and fishing shacks that dotted the coast north of Perth as far as Geraldton. These have been removed along with the associated myriad of 4WD tracks and replaced by coastal reserves with well planned and designed access points along the coast, while neighbouring coastal towns are being developed as nodes for the increasing coastal population. Western Australia’s Geographe Bay is a relatively sheltered sandy embayment with a northerly drift of sand from Busselton north to Mandurah.

    Port Geographe canal development etc near Busselton and all the ensuring accretion seagrass (arrow) and erosion on north side (arrow) road and houses threatened Photo: Andrew Short
    In the early 1990s this northerly drift was interrupted by the construction of a series of training walls and groynes associated with a canal estate called Port Geographe. Not only sand but also piles of rotting seagrass built out 100 m against the updrift wall, while the beach on the northern side eroded back 250 m, threatening a road then houses. A combination of makeshift seawall and sand bypassing has been used with limited success; meanwhile the rotting seagrass continues to pile up and waft across the development. Just 120 km further north the Port Bouvard development built a similar training wall, but also added a permanent sand bypassing system, the result, no uplift build up and no down drift erosion.

    Port Geographe Photo: Andrew Short
    These few examples serve to illustrate that the coast is a dynamic and at times very inhospitable environment. When we develop the coast it is essential that we first understand the nature processes and hazards, including longterm rates of shoreline movement and change, and extent of inland erosion and inundation. We must then plan with this information in mind, so that no inappropriate structures or development are placed in this hazards zone, and if they have to be such as ports and airports, then they are properly defended. Likewise if we interrupt the long-shore movement of sand we need to make contingencies such as sand bypassing, otherwise nature will realign the shores and place any down-drift development at risk.

    – Professor Andrew Short, Senior Coastal Scientist, Coastalwatch

    Read more: http://www.coastalwatch.com/news/article.aspx?articleId=4524#ixzz2UYlkHxYz

  • Sleep-out to aid Vinnies. Malcolm Turnbull

    Dear Neville,

    The mark of a great society is the way it treats the neediest and most vulnerable.

    Next month, I will be joining St Vinnies in their annual CEO sleepout – business and political leaders used to warm beds will be sleeping outdoors on a chilly winter night to raise money for the homeless.

    The campaign will raise badly needed funds so St Vinnies can continue the important work they do in helping the homeless break the cycle of despair by offering them short term crisis accommodation, counselling and opportunities for education and training.

    Last year the sleepout raised $5.3 million, of which just over $36,000 was raised in support of my sleepout. So I am hoping to outdo that figure this year!

    PLEASE DONATE TO ST VINNIES HERE.

    The money raised last year funded important programs around the country including:

    • $146,000 for literacy and numeracy programs for homeless people at the Ozanam Learning Centre in Sydney.
    •  $310,000 for outreach services, including counselling and material aid packages.
    • $230,000 for 9 crisis accommodation places for women escaping domestic violence.
    • $210,000 in funding of 30 previously unfunded crisis accommodation beds at Matthew Talbot Hostel in Woolloomooloo.
    Yours sincerely,

  • Sea Level rise : Drowning in numbers

    Sea level rise: Drowning in numbers

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    We urgently need to know how far and how fast the sea will rise, but the latest attempt to put figures on it is dangerously misleading

    IMAGINE your job is to protect London from surging seas. In one way it is easy: unlike most coastal cities, London has a formidable flood defence system in the form of the Thames Barrier, capable of protecting it from all but the highest storm surges.

    But as the seas rise, the risk of the barrier being breached will increase steadily. With a 1-metre rise in local sea level, London will get flooded every 10 years. So when do you start building new flood defences, and how high do you make them?

    The stakes are enormous. Building new defences will cost tens of billions and involve decades of planning and controversy before construction even begins. Get it wrong, and storm surges could kill thousands and displace millions. So all around the world, planners are clamouring to know how fast the seas will rise as the planet warms.

    Until recently, scientists could not give them any reliable numbers. There were no computer models capable of simulating the melting of the world’s ice sheets and glaciers.

    The 2007 report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) handled this uncertainty really badly. It acknowledged that we don’t know how fast all the ice will melt, but then gave some numbers anyway – between 18 and 59 centimetres of sea level rise by 2100 – based on highly dubious assumptions such as glaciers continuing to flow at the same rate and the Antarctic ice sheet growing larger. The numbers also assumed a maximum warming of 5.4 °C, even though the report’s highest projection was 6.4 °C. Unsurprisingly, many people wrongly took 59 cm of sea level rise to be the worst case.

    Now we have some more numbers. A European-funded project called ice2sea has developed computer models of glaciers and ice sheets. Earlier this month it announced that melting ice would contribute between 4 and 37 cm to global sea level by 2100. Adding this to the other causes of sea level rise – the main one being the expansion of the oceans as they warm – gives figures of between 16 and 69 cm by 2100.

    Some media reports focused on the fact that this is less than some other recent estimates of at least a metre. “Seas will rise no more than 69 centimetres by 2100,” proclaimed this magazine.

    Others focused on the fact that even this relatively small rise could have devastating consequences. “Floods could overwhelm Thames Barrier by end of century,” declared The Guardian in London.

    How much trust can we put in these numbers, though? The whole point of the ice2sea programme was to “reduce the uncertainty”, but its numbers come with some rather large caveats.

    For starters, the modellers didn’t have the computing power to look at a range of scenarios for how much carbon dioxide we will pump into the atmosphere. Instead, they looked at just one – a “mid-range” scenario predicted by the 2007 report to lead to warming of around 3 °C.

    Yet actual emissions today are much closer to the worst-case scenario, which some recent studies predict could lead to warming of 6 °C or more. And far from falling, annual global emissions are rising ever faster. With hundreds more coal-fired power stations being built and new sources of fossil fuels like tar sands being exploited, there is good reason to think emissions will continue to soar for many decades to come.

    What’s more, to account for the fact that warming will not be uniform across the globe, the modellers had to produce regional projections of warming, snowfall and so on to feed into the ice models. But regional projections are highly unreliable, with different models often producing wildly varying results. The prime example is the Arctic, where the sea ice is disappearing much faster than anyone expected.

    To understand why regional climate predictions are so much less reliable than global ones, think of the heat entering the atmosphere and oceans as water pouring into a bath. Predicting the average level of the bath is much easier that predicting the height of the waves sloshing around.

    So the climate information being fed into these latest ice models could be way off the mark.

    And even if it isn’t, how do we know the models are right? Well, say the researchers, they can reproduce some of the observed responses to the actual 0.5 °C warming of the past few decades, such as the retreat of glaciers. But that doesn’t prove they can predict the response to future warming of 3 or 6 °C. There are similar issues with global climate models.

    This kind of research is vital. But when such a limited study is presented as the “best estimate” available, the danger is that it will be misinterpreted in the same way as the 2007 IPCC report. Its numbers do not encompass the worst-case scenario – far from it. They don’t even represent the most likely scenario. The narrow range implies a degree of certainty that simply doesn’t exist. Nobody should be basing life-and-death decisions such as how to protect Londoners on these numbers.

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  • Shifty mantle may skew sea level estimates

    Shifty mantle may skew sea level estimates

    The same mantle processes that drive plate tectonics also deform elevations of ancient shorelines, says Jerry Mitrovica, professor of geophysics at Harvard University. “You can’t ignore this, or your estimate of the size of the ancient ice sheets will be wrong.” (Credit: Pericomart/Flickr)

    SYRACUSE U. / U. CHICAGO (US) — Changes in a prehistoric shoreline stretching from Virginia to Florida suggest that estimates of past sea levels could be off base.

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    Creative Commons LicenseThe text of this article by Futurity is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-No Derivatives License.

    Resting, in some parts, more than 280 feet above modern sea level, this shoreline was carved by waves more than 3 million years ago—possible evidence of a once higher sea level, triggered by ice-sheet melting.
    (Credit:
    But new findings by a team of researchers, including Robert Moucha, assistant professor of Earth Sciences at Syracuse University, reveal that the shoreline has been uplifted by more than 210 feet, meaning less ice melted than expected.


    The East Coast shoreline, also known as the Orangeburg Scarp, as it may have appeared 3 million years ago. (Credit: Syracuse U.)

    Straight from the Source

    Read the original study

    Equally compelling is the fact that the shoreline is not flat, as it should be, but is distorted, reflecting the pushing motion of the Earth’s mantle.

    This is big news, says Moucha, for scientists who use the coastline to predict future sea-level rise. It’s also a cautionary tale for those who rely almost exclusively on cycles of glacial advance and retreat to study sea-level changes.

    “Three million years ago, the average global temperature was two to three degrees Celsius higher, while the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere was comparable to that of today,” says Moucha, who contributed to a paper on the subject in Science Express.

    “If we can estimate the height of the sea from 3 million years ago, we can then relate it to the amount of ice sheets that melted. This period also serves as a window into what we may expect in the future.”

    Less melting

    Moucha and his colleagues—led by David Rowley, professor of geophysical sciences at the University of Chicago—have been using computer modeling to pinpoint exactly what melted during this interglacial period, some 3 million years ago.

    So far, evidence is stacked in favor of Greenland, West Antarctica, and the sprawling East Antarctica ice sheet, but the new shoreline uplift implies that East Antarctica may have melted some or not at all. “It’s less than previous estimates had implied,” says Rowley, the article’s lead author.

    Moucha’s findings show that the jagged shoreline may have been caused by the interplay between the Earth’s surface and its mantle—a process known as dynamic topography.

    Advanced modeling suggests that the shoreline, referred to as the Orangeburg Scarp, may have shifted as much as 196 feet. Modeling also accounts for other effects, such as the buildup of offshore sediments and glacial retreats.

    “Dynamic topography is a very important contributor to Earth’s surface evolution,” says Rowley. “With this work, we can demonstrate that even small-scale features, long considered outside the realm of mantle influence, are reflective of mantle contributions.”

    Nothing’s stable

    Moucha’s involvement with the project grew out of a series of papers he published as a postdoctoral fellow at the Canadian Institute for Advance Research in Montreal. In one paper from 2008, he drew on elements of the North American East Coast and African West Coast to build a case against the existence of stable continental platforms.

    “The North American East Coast has always been thought of as a passive margin,” says Moucha, referring to large areas usually bereft of tectonic activity. “[With Rowley], we’ve challenged the traditional view of passive margins by showing that through observations and numerical simulations, they are subject to long-term deformation, in response to mantle flow.”

    Central to Moucha’s argument is the fact that viscous mantle flows everywhere, all the time. As a result, it’s nearly impossible to find what he calls “stable reference points” on the Earth’s surface to accurately measure global sea-level rise. “If one incorrectly assumed that a particular margin is a stable reference frame when, in actuality, it has subsided, his or her assumption would lead to a sea-level rise and, ultimately, to an increase in ice-sheet melt,” says Moucha.

    Another consideration is the size of the ice sheet. Between periods of glacial activity (such as the one from 3 million years ago and the one we are in now), ice sheets are generally smaller.

    Jerry Mitrovica, professor of geophysics at Harvard University who also contributed to the paper, says the same mantle processes that drive plate tectonics also deform elevations of ancient shorelines. “You can’t ignore this, or your estimate of the size of the ancient ice sheets will be wrong,” he says.

    Moucha puts it this way: “Because ice sheets have mass and mass results in gravitational attraction, the sea level actually falls near the melting ice sheet and rises when it’s further away. This variability has enabled us to unravel which ice sheet contributed to sea-level rise and how much of [the sheet] melted.”

    Appalachian ‘wear and tear’

    The geophysicist credits much of the group’s success to state-of-the-art seismic tomography, a geological imaging technique led by Nathan Simmons at California’s Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory. “Nathan, who co-authored the paper, provided me with seismic tomography data, from which I used high-performance computing to model mantle flow,” says Moucha. “A few million years may have taken us a day to render, but a billion years may have taken several weeks or more.”

    Moucha and his colleagues hope to apply their East Coast model to the Appalachian Mountains, which are also considered a type of passive geology. Although they have been tectonically quiet for more than 200 million years, the Appalachians are beginning to show signs of wear and tear: rugged peaks, steep slopes, landslides, and waterfalls—possible evidence of erosion, triggered by dynamic topography.

    “Scientists such as Rob, who produce increasingly accurate models of dynamic topography for the past, are going to be at the front line of this important research area,” says Mitrovica.

    Adds Rowley: “Rob Moucha has demonstrated that dynamic topography is a very important contributor to Earth’s surface evolution. … His study of mantle contributions is appealing on a large number of fronts that I, among others of our collaboration, hope to pursue.”

    Source: Syracuse University

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  • Active or ‘Extremely Active’ Atlantic Hurricane Season Predicted for 2013

    Active or ‘Extremely Active’ Atlantic Hurricane Season Predicted for 2013

    May 24, 2013 — In its 2013 Atlantic hurricane season outlook issued today, NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center is forecasting an active or extremely active season this year.


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    For the six-month hurricane season, which begins June 1, NOAA’s Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook says there is a 70 percent likelihood of 13 to 20 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher), of which 7 to 11 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 3 to 6 major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5; winds of 111 mph or higher).

    These ranges are well above the seasonal average of 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes.

    “With the devastation of Sandy fresh in our minds, and another active season predicted, everyone at NOAA is committed to providing life-saving forecasts in the face of these storms and ensuring that Americans are prepared and ready ahead of time.” said Kathryn Sullivan, Ph.D., NOAA acting administrator. “As we saw first-hand with Sandy, it’s important to remember that tropical storm and hurricane impacts are not limited to the coastline. Strong winds, torrential rain, flooding, and tornadoes often threaten inland areas far from where the storm first makes landfall.”

    Three climate factors that strongly control Atlantic hurricane activity are expected to come together to produce an active or extremely active 2013 hurricane season. These are:

    • A continuation of the atmospheric climate pattern, which includes a strong west African monsoon, that is responsible for the ongoing era of high activity for Atlantic hurricanes that began in 1995;
    • Warmer-than-average water temperatures in the tropical Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea; and
    • El Niño is not expected to develop and suppress hurricane formation.

    “This year, oceanic and atmospheric conditions in the Atlantic basin are expected to produce more and stronger hurricanes,” said Gerry Bell, Ph.D., lead seasonal hurricane forecaster with NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. “These conditions include weaker wind shear, warmer Atlantic waters and conducive winds patterns coming from Africa.”

    NOAA’s seasonal hurricane outlook is not a hurricane landfall forecast; it does not predict how many storms will hit land or where a storm will strike. Forecasts for individual storms and their impacts will be provided throughout the season by NOAA’s National Hurricane Center.

    New for this hurricane season are improvements to forecast models, data gathering, and the National Hurricane Center communication procedure for post-tropical cyclones. In July, NOAA plans to bring online a new supercomputer that will run an upgraded Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting (HWRF) model that provides significantly enhanced depiction of storm structure and improved storm intensity forecast guidance.

    Also this year, Doppler radar data will be transmitted in real time from NOAA’s Hurricane Hunter aircraft. This will help forecasters better analyze rapidly evolving storm conditions, and these data could further improve the HWRF model forecasts by 10 to 15 percent.

    The National Weather Service has also made changes to allow for hurricane warnings to remain in effect, or to be newly issued, for storms like Sandy that have become post-tropical. This flexibility allows forecasters to provide a continuous flow of forecast and warning information for evolving or continuing threats.

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