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  • Scientists To Determine If Sea Level Rise Accelerating

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    Scientists To Determine If Sea Level Rise Accelerating

    11.05.2014

    11.05.2014 17:13 Age: 13 days

    By 2020 to 2030, we could have some statistical certainty of what the sea level rise situation will look like for the end of the century giving 70 years for planning, say researchers.

    Tide guage at NOC Liverpool. Courtesy: University of Southampton.

     

    Scientists have developed a new method for revealing how sea levels might rise around the world throughout the 21st century to address the controversial topic of whether the rate of sea level rise is currently increasing.

    The international team of researchers, led by the University of Southampton and including scientists from the National Oceanography Centre, the University of Western Australia, the University of South Florida, the Australian National University and the University of Seigen in Germany, analysed data from 10 long-term sea level monitoring stations located around the world. They looked into the future to identify the timing at which sea level accelerations might first be recognised in a significant manner.

    Lead author Dr Ivan Haigh, Lecturer in Coastal Oceanography at the University of Southampton, says: “Our results show that by 2020 to 2030, we could have some statistical certainty of what the sea level rise situation will look like for the end of the century. That means we’ll know what to expect and have 70 years to plan. In a subject that has so much uncertainty, this gives us the gift of long-term planning.

    “As cities, including London, continue to plan for long-term solutions to sea level rise, we will be in a position to better predict the long-term situation for the UK capital and other coastal areas across the planet. Scientists should continue to update the analysis every 5 to 10 years, creating more certainty in long-term planning — and helping develop solutions for a changing planet.”

    The study found that the most important approach to the earliest possible detection of a significant sea level acceleration lies in improved understanding (and subsequent removal) of interannual (occurring between years, or from one year to the next) to multidecadal (involving multiple decades) variability in sea level records.
    “The measured sea levels reflect a variety of processes operating at different time scales,” says co-author Dr Francisco Calafat, from the National Oceanography Centre. He adds, “One of the main difficulties in detecting sea level accelerations is the presence of decadal and multi-decadal variations. For example, processes associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation have a strong influence on the sea levels around the UK over multi-decadal periods. Such processes introduce a large amount of ‘noise’ into the record, masking any underlying acceleration in the rate of rise. Our study shows, that by adequately understanding these processes and removing their influence, we can detect accelerations much earlier.”

    Co-author Professor Eelco Rohling, from the Australian National University and formerly of the University of Southampton, adds: “By developing a novel method that realistically approximates future sea level rise, we have been able to add new insight to the debate and show that there is substantial evidence for a significant recent acceleration in the sea level rise on a global and regional level. However, due to the large ‘noise’ signals at some local coastal sites, it won’t be until later this decade or early next decade before the accelerations in sea level are detection at these individual tide gauge sites.”

    The findings of the study, funded by the Natural Environmental Research Council (iGlass consortium), are published in this months issue of the journal Nature Communications.

    Abstract

    There is observational evidence that global sea level is rising and there is concern that the rate of rise will increase, significantly threatening coastal communities. However, considerable debate remains as to whether the rate of sea level rise is currently increasing and, if so, by how much. Here we provide new insights into sea level accelerations by applying the main methods that have been used previously to search for accelerations in historical data, to identify the timings (with uncertainties) at which accelerations might first be recognized in a statistically significant manner (if not apparent already) in sea level records that we have artificially extended to 2100. We find that the most important approach to earliest possible detection of a significant sea level acceleration lies in improved understanding (and subsequent removal) of interannual to multidecadal variability in sea level records.

    Citation

    Timescales for detecting a significant acceleration in sea level rise by Ivan D. Haigh, Thomas Wahl, Eelco J. Rohling, René M. Price, Charitha B. Pattiaratchi, Francisco M. Calafat & Sönke Dangendorf and published in Nature Communications 5, Article number: 3635 doi:10.1038/ncomms4635

    Read the abstract and get the open access paper here.

    Source

  • Visualising the amount of ice melting in Antarctica

    News Blog

    Visualising the amount of ice melting in Antarctica

    Monday 19 May 2014 18.24 By George Leeantarctica
    By George Lee, Agriculture and Environment Correspondent

    The latest scientific analysis of the rate at which ice is disappearing from Antarctica shows that the continent is now losing about 160bn tonnes of ice per year to the ocean.

    In a report published today in the journal Geophysical Research Letters, scientists used the most recent data collected by the European Space Agency’s Cryosat spacecraft to show that the rate of melt in Antarctica is now almost double the previous estimate.

    However, it is very hard for most people to imagine how much 160bn tonnes of ice actually is or what that much ice might look like.

    To put it into context consider the size of Liberty Hall in Dublin – one of the largest, most iconic, and most easily recognised buildings in the country.

    It should not be too hard, given its shape, to imagine Liberty Hall as a huge ice cube in the heart of the capital city.

    The amount of ice, however, being lost in Antarctic is equivalent to 8.7m ice cubes the size of Liberty Hall, every single year.

    And if you laid those ice cubes out end-to-end they would stretch right around the world 13 times over.

    That is more than 522,000km of ice cubes the exact size of Liberty Hall all in a row – enough to stretch to the moon and more than one third of the way back to earth.

    That is how much ice is being lost every year from Antarctica alone.

    Another way of trying to grapple with what is going on is to consider how much extra water 160bn tonnes of melting ice puts into the oceans.

    It turns out that it is enough to cover an area equivalent to the entire island of Ireland under two meters of water every year. That is 20 meters in a decade from Antarctica alone.

    All the scientific data suggests, however, that the rate at which the Antarctic ice is melting is accelerating rapidly.

    And none of this takes into account the amount of ice melting from the Greenland ice sheet, or from glaciers all over the world.

    The key finding today, however, is of course that the rate at which we are losing ice in the Antarctic, and by extension elsewhere is mind-boggling, and almost twice as fast as was previously believed.

    The debate about whether or not all of this is manmade appears a little bit irrelevant in the context of what exactly is going go.

    Surely the number one issue is what are we going to do about it?

    Here’s the maths:

    One tonne of ice = One cubic metre of ice.

    160,000,000,000 tonnes of ice being lost in Antarctica = 160,000,000,000 cubic metres of ice.

    Footprint of Liberty Hall is 17.5 metres by 17.5 metres.

    Height of Liberty Hall is 60 metres.

    Volume of Liberty Hall is 17.5 x 17.5 x 60 = 18,375 cubic metres.

    160,000,000,000 divided by 18,375 = 8,707,483.

    So we would need 8.7 million Liberty Halls to get a volume of 160 billion cubic metres.

    8.7 million X 60 metres = 522,449,979 metres = 522,450 kilometres.

    Circumference of the Earth = 40,075km.

    522,450 km = 13 x 40,075km = 13 times around the world.

    Distance to the moon = 384,400km.

    Distance to the moon x 1.358 = 522,450km.

    Area of Ireland = 84,431 square kilometres = 84.431 billion square metres.

    Area of Ireland under one metre of water requires 84 billion cubic metres of water.

    About 160 billion tonnes of ice is melting from Antarctica each year.

    That is approximately 2 x 84 billion cubic metres.

    One cubic metre of ice = One tonne of ice.

    So 160 billion tonnes of ice would put an area equivalent to Ireland under 2 metres of water every year.

     

  • Climate change’s ominous secret

    Climate change’s ominous secret

    Commentary by: Larry Kraft
    May 21, 2014

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    Climate change is happening and humans are causing it, primarily from the increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide caused by burning fossil fuels. This much we know. The “secret” comes from changes happening in the fast-warming Arctic: we may be surprisingly close to an Earth that supports far fewer humans than it does today.

    Permafrost and methane hydrates

    In the Arctic, two things may become crucial: permafrost and methane hydrates. Permafrost—ground frozen for thousands of years—is a huge store of carbon, originating from long-dead plants and animals. As permafrost thaws, this carbon is released into the atmosphere as carbon dioxide or methane, both greenhouse gases that cause climate change. According to a NASA research report, “Is a Sleeping Climate Giant Stirring in the Arctic?” there is four to five times the amount of carbon in the permafrost than the sum total of all carbon humanity has emitted into the atmosphere since 1850.

    Methane hydrate. Photo by: Wusel007.
    Methane hydrate. Photo by: Wusel007/Creative Commons 3.0.

    Methane doesn’t last as long as carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. But on a 20-year time scale, it’s 105 times as potent in causing global warming. In the Arctic Ocean, there is an immense amount of methane stored in ice, in a form called methane hydrates. According to a March 2010 report in Science, these methane hydrates are equivalent to 3-30 times the total amount of carbon dioxide humanity has emitted since the Industrial Revolution.

    Permafrost and methane hydrates are pivotal because the Arctic (and Antarctic) is warming faster than anywhere else on the planet. By later this decade, according to many scientists, the Arctic could be completely free of ice in the summer. Already, permafrost has begun to thaw, and huge pools of methane are bubbling up from the Arctic Ocean.

    Impacts

    If a significant portion of permafrost and/or methane hydrates melts in a short period of time (think decades), the result may be catastrophic for humanity. Impacts we are already seeing from climate change would be magnified, including more intense major storms, reduced crop yields, more pests, higher sea levels, and more flooding, droughts and forest fires. These could be joined by a wholesale disruption of the jet streams, a complete change of weather patterns, and very rapid warming, which many, if not most, life forms could not survive. While humans might be able to handle the temperature rise, our food sources would not have enough evolutionary time to adapt.

    Why isn’t this widely known?

    Landscape with permafrost underneath. The permafrost creates landscape formations known as palsas. Photo by: Dentren.
    Landscape with permafrost underneath. The permafrost creates landscape formations known as palsas. Photo by: Dentren/Creative Commons 3.0.

    Scientists rely on careful experimentation, verified by peer review, and supported by further experimentation; this generally slow process eventually results in unassailable knowledge. However, given the earth’s complexity, it is not yet understood how quickly these Arctic changes will happen, if there are other changes in the Arctic that might absorb some of the added carbon dioxide and methane, and exactly how the Earth will respond. These uncertainties, combined with the conservative scientific process, may be why the potential devastation from the Arctic has not been widely publicized.

    An insurance policy?

    While the likelihood of this nightmare scenario is unknown, there are coded warning signs coming from respectable scientists. One example is a July 2013 study in the journal Nature that indicated a 50-gigaton “burp” of methane from thawing Arctic permafrost beneath the East Siberian Sea is “highly possible at anytime.” This would be equivalent to roughly three times the total carbon dioxide emitted by humanity since the Industrial Revolution.

    People spend significant sums of money every year on insurance to protect their families and children from unknown events. If the melting of Arctic permafrost and methane hydrates occurs, we put our children’s world at risk. It’s time to take out an insurance policy on our Earth habitat, in the form of immediate actions to reduce greenhouse gases. We know this needs to happen. The more we wait, the more risk we put on the shoulders of our children.

    Actions

    The world needs U.S. leadership now, and we’re not providing it. According to the Global Carbon Budget published by the Global Carbon Project in November, 2013, we have one of the highest per capita emission rates in the world, more than twice the amount of carbon dioxide per person than China, India, or the European Union.

    Here are some actions you can take now:

    • 1. Sign the petition at Wake Up to Climate Change to get Congress moving.
    • 2. Demand from your congressional representatives a gradually increasing tax on carbon emissions. This is the single most effective thing we can do. Take a look at the Citizens’ Climate Lobby for a well-defined approach.
    • 3. Talk about this issue with friends, family and others.
    • 4. Reduce your own carbon footprint as much as possible.

    It’s time to take immediate action. For our children, and grandchildren, the stakes could not be higher.

    Citations:

    • National Snow & Ice Data Center, Q&A with Kevin Schaefer, https://nsidc.org/cryosphere/frozenground/methane.html
    • Tomgram: Dahr Jamail, The Climate Change Scorecard http://www.tomdispatch.com/blog/175785/
    • Climate Reality Leadership Corps presentation, http://climaterealityproject.org/

    Read more at http://news.mongabay.com/2014/0521-kraft-climate-permafrost-methane.html#kxl6lb4x33t42aGZ.99

  • EXPLAINER. CAN THE BUDGET BE BLOCKED

    20 May 2014
    Home  »  Uncategorized   »   EXPLAINER. CAN THE BUDGET BE BLOCKED

    EXPLAINER. CAN THE BUDGET BE BLOCKED

    Posted in Uncategorized By Neville On May 20, 2014

    In the days since the Abbott government released its first budget, the Labor Party, the Greens and the Palmer United Party have all said they will block parts of it in the Senate. Threats to block the…

    Following the announcement of the budget, a mass of legislation to implement the new policies and allow the government to spend money is introduced into parliament. AAP/Lukas Coch

    In the days since the Abbott government released its first budget, the Labor Party, the Greens and the Palmer United Party have all said they will block parts of it in the Senate.

    Threats to block the budget bring back memories of 1975 when the opposition, led by Malcolm Fraser, used its numbers in the Senate to stall the passage of the appropriation bills (sometimes referred to as “supply”). This ultimately led to the then governor-general, Sir John Kerr, taking the extraordinary step of dismissing the Whitlam government.

    But would blocking aspects of the Abbott government’s budget bring about a similar constitutional crisis, the likes of which we have not seen since 1975?

    Following the announcement of the budget, a mass of legislation necessary to implement the new policies and allow the government to spend money is introduced into parliament. The legislation falls broadly into three categories:

    1. Appropriation bills (also known as the budget bills), which provide parliamentary approval for the government’s proposed expenditures;
    2. Bills that amend existing tax legislation, or add new taxes; and
    3. Bills that create or amend government schemes or services.

    The implementation of the Abbott government’s budget depends upon the passage of all three types of legislation. Based on the mutterings from Labor and the minor parties so far, this year it will most likely be the latter two categories that receive the greatest attention on the floor of the Senate.

    The appropriation bills

    The government can’t simply take money from the Treasury. Parliament must pass legislation, known as “appropriation” legislation, authorising the government to dip into the Treasury’s coffers. On the night of Treasurer Joe Hockey’s budget speech, three appropriation bills were introduced into parliament.

    The first of these bills deals with the “ordinary annual services of the government”. This first bill provides government departments and agencies with the funding necessary to operate day-to-day services, including paying public servants’ wages.

    The second bill deals with the authorisation of funds for items that are not “ordinary annual services of the government”. This will include, for example, funding for public works, the acquisition of sites and buildings or grants to the states.

    The third bill provides money for the running of parliament itself.

    The reason for multiple appropriation bills is that Section 54 of the Constitution requires that a bill dealing with the appropriation of money:

    …for the ordinary annual services of the government shall deal only with such appropriation.

    Other appropriations must, therefore, be dealt with in separate legislation. The reason for this is to prevent the government tacking important new programs onto these bills and forcing the Senate’s hand.

    Blocking cuts to existing services

    The way in which the legislation is structured to conform with the constitutional requirements has implications for senators seeking to block aspects of the budget.

    For example, the money required to run organisations such as the ABC or the CSIRO is contained within the first appropriation bill as it is part of the “ordinary annual services of the government”. Senators seeking to block the budget cuts to the ABC or the CSIRO would need to vote against the first appropriation bill.

    As constitutional law expert Anne Twomey has noted, it is unlikely that Labor would join the minor parties or independents in blocking supply in this way. As a consequence, the Senate blocking budget cuts to existing services seems doubtful, so we are unlikely to see a repeat of 1975.

    Blocking the ‘debt levy’

    The government’s “debt levy”, which proposes an increase to the top marginal tax rate by 2% for three years, is likely to face stern opposition in the Senate.

    The debt levy is not included in the appropriation bills, but is instead part of a separate set of bills – primarily, the Tax Laws Amendment (Temporary Budget Repair Levy) Bill 2014.

    The proposed legislation dealing with the debt levy is separate to the appropriation bills because it is a function of two constitutional requirements and allows the Senate to scrutinise each proposed new tax separately. First, there is the aforementioned issue of Section 54 of the Constitution. In addition, Section 55 of the Constitution requires that laws dealing with taxation can only deal with taxation, and only one subject of taxation.

    The effect of Section 55 is that where a government seeks to introduce taxes on different subjects, each tax must be dealt with in a separate bill.

    Section 53 of the Constitution prevents the Senate amending bills dealing with taxation or the appropriation of money for the ordinary annual services of the government. However, it can request such amendments be made by the House of Representatives.

    Given the vocal opposition to the debt levy, it would appear that non-government senators are more likely to reject the tax outright than to seek amendments from the lower house.

    Blocking new or amended schemes or services

    The Senate blocking supply of funding to existing schemes or services is unlikely. But what about where the budget has proposed changes to the scheme or service itself?

    For example, could the Senate block the proposed A$7 GP co-payment or the establishment of the Medical Research Future Fund? These initiatives would require either new legislation or amendments to existing legislation. As such, they would be open to review by the Senate.

    In the case of the proposed co-payment, amendments would presumably need to be made to the Health Insurance Act 1973. When scrutinising normal legislation such as this, the Senate has the same powers as the lower house.

    The new Senate from July 1

    The composition of the Senate is set to change on July 1 this year. This, coupled with the way in which the Constitution requires many of these budget measures to be dealt with in separate pieces of legislation, means that each initiative could receive close scrutiny from the Senate.

    While the Senate is unlikely to block the appropriation bills and prevent the day-to-day running of services, the close scrutiny that other aspects of the budget are likely to receive could stall and frustrate some of the government’s key reforms.

  • Battery Breakthrough at Japanese University

    Battery Breakthrough at Japanese University

    By Andy Tully | Wed, 21 May 2014 20:38 | 0

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    Lithium-ion batteries are popular among rechargeable batteries because of their longevity, but they pose a fire hazard. That problem could be solved if the batteries’ cells were solid state.

    Researchers at Japan’s Tohoku University have done just that. Instead of dissolving lithium salts in organic liquids, which makes them susceptible to heat problems, they’ve turned to Lithium Borohydride (LiBH4), a rock salt used in organic chemistry labs that until now has worked in batteries only at high pressures or high temperatures.

    Select the reports you are interested in:

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    The researchers report in the scientific journal APL Materials that they stabilized the high-pressure form of LiBH4 and made a solid solution that was stable at normal atmospheric pressure and room temperature.

    Hitoshi Takamura, who led the research, suggested this finding could be broadly applied in the search for new battery technologies. “The urgency of this quest has been abundantly clear after the grounding of so many aircraft in recent months,” he said.

    He was referring to lithium-ion batteries used on the Boeing 787 Dreamliners. Several of the new jetliners were grounded because of heat-related problems in their electrical systems linked to the batteries.

    Meanwhile, a researcher at Sweden’s Chalmers University of Technology has found a way to get more mileage out of the batteries that drive the electric element of a hybrid car without improving the performance of the battery itself.

    Viktor Larsson noted that during long-distance driving, plug-in hybrid cars use the old-fashioned internal combustion engine more than they should have to. So he developed a method to make the vehicles remember frequent routes, leading to more efficient use of the battery.

    Related Article: How Food Can Build Better Lithium Batteries

    Even though hybrid cars can reduce reliance on fossil fuels, the use of a gasoline engine is still necessary during longer trips. When the car’s battery charge is depleted, the gasoline engine must take over, making the car no more energy efficient than a comparable vehicle using a conventional engine.

    Larsson says he’s worked out a method that allows the car to identify recurrent routes and pre-compute when the battery should be used, as well as when running the car on gasoline is more energy efficient.

    “After each trip, the vehicle can upload driving statistics to a [remote] server that identifies recurrent routes and calculates an optimal strategy for the energy management,” Larsson explains. “The strategy is transferred to the car. For the next trip, the car can either try to identify the route completely by itself or ask the driver to verify if any of the most common routes will be driven.”

    What’s more, Larsson says, this technology can use existing technology and can be added to vehicles already in production. And the car need not rely on uploading the information to a remote server, he adds, because the same controlling software could be installed on the driver’s smart phone.

    And that could mean big savings. Larsson says the method could reduce gasoline consumption by 10 percent.

    By Andy Tully of Oilprice.com