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  • Population and resources: She won’t be right, mate

     

    While most political attention is focused on things such as health and education — despite the fact that we have among the best health care and education systems in the world — the medium and long-term national issues always get second-class treatment. Energy, transport, urban planning, water and environment (indigenous species loss, feral-pests, salination, loss of soil fertility, forests) are some of the major challenges we face.

    Energy is one of the most important but it is implicit in any scenario that by 2050 we should have largely solved the energy issue. There is really no excuse because solar and geothermal technologies only need investment to deliver on their promise in that timescale. Supplemented by other renewables (wind, tidal, biofuels) our dependence on fossil fuels, especially coal, will be under control by then. Although there are huge opportunities for Australia, the government remains extraordinarily tardy — a much delayed $153 million investment in solar and geothermal technologies compares to a subsidy of $150 million on a single brown-coal plant for Victoria, not to mention billions on the fake promise of “clean coal”.

    Water is perhaps the issue most worrisome for both the experts and the public. Yet for cities it is also one of the most exaggerated. And unlike pessimism about the complacency of the Australian public, in this case city people have shown they can respond admirably. In the case against further population growth many cite Brisbane’s experience in the recent prolonged water concerns. Yet it shows the exact opposite: people responded beyond expectations in going from about 300 to 140L/cap/day. No new dams, desalination plants, pipelines, recycling or rainwater harvesting were needed to get us through one of the worst dry spells in our history. (Southern readers should be in no confusion on this — much of this infrastructure is being built but none were in operation before the water crisis easing.)

    The interpretation of this is incontestable. With just some of these actions — say pipelines for redistribution, recycled water (if only in industry who are profligate users of potable water) and much greater domestic rainwater collection — a twofold increase in population for South East Queensland will not be a problem.

    Although not so long ago most Brisbane homes had rainwater tanks, among capital cities today it is has the lowest percentage of homes with installed tanks. In addition long-term rainfall patterns have been delivering less rain to dam catchments and more to coastal urban areas making it an imperative to capture that water. Industry is not a keen supporter of this because it cuts them out of their preferred rent-seeking “solutions” such as expensive desalination plants for which they extract government agreements to purchase, at 10 times the cost of rainwater, the full output of the power-hungry plants even if the water is not required.

    These simple and low-tech solutions are applicable in all east-coast cities to definitively solve the water problem. Very few houses use rainwater for toilet and laundry, which account for about 50 per cent of household water use. In Melbourne, Stuart McQuire, using rainwater capture and recycling, has reduced his daily use of articulated water to four litres per person. His house is a net exporter of electric power to the grid. Currently solar photovoltaic cells are too expensive to promote or prescribe widespread domestic deployment but this will certainly change in the next 20 years if not 10 years. The coming revolution in energy generation will itself save significant amounts of water, which today’s coal-fired generators use profligately.

    The final part of The 7.30 Report’s investigation was an extended discussion with a panel of demographer Bernard Salt, eco-warrior and former Australian of the Year Tim Flannery, Australian Industry Group CEO Heather Ridout and director of Griffith University’s Urban Research Program director Brendan Gleeson. This was a high quality panel and a high quality discussion. But in their summation the panel made the most blatant discombobulation.

    They all professed great faith in the Australian people and that we would pull through. This is the equivalent of “She’ll be right, mate” and is a de facto endorsement of business as usual. It was hardly surprising in the week of Australia Day but is a damning indictment of our inability to take the hard truth or any criticism. The panel members could not rise above the tyranny of public opinion that attacks anyone who is willing to state the truth — that Australians are an extremely complacent people.

    This is exactly the reason why our politicians are so spineless. On all the issues listed at the beginning of this article — energy, public transport, urban planning, rivers and water policy, environment — the Australian record is not just average, it is appalling. And the evidence for our current trajectory is all in the wrong direction.

    Australians also seem not to be able to join the dots. We have almost $1 trillion in debt on property loans that have been encouraged by poor tax policy that amounts to middle-class welfare. Instead of tying up so much of our wealth in this totally unproductive property bubble we could have been spending on infrastructure. Every dollar invested in public transport, energy and urban planning will be repaid for decades into the future in a virtuous circle of improved energy use, better economic productivity, better health and fitness and overall better quality of life. By comparison we could spend our entire GDP on our current form of health care, with its focus on hi-tech intervention, hospital care and expensive pharmaceuticals, with very little true improvement in health metrics — indeed in all likelihood a vicious circle of medical dependency rather than preventive measures.

    In contrast to the ABC panel, David Marr was closer to the truth when he said that Australians are a timid and fearful lot, but that if given strong leadership with appropriate action, they can be accepting and adaptable. He was speaking last year in the context of boat people, which contrasts to the success of our multicultural society, one of the few home-grown aspects of Australia that we can be unequivocally proud of.

    Australians need to understand that our lifestyle is unsustainable. Until they truly accept this and convince politicians they are serious it is a copout to just blame politicians for what is essentially a mirror reflecting our own intransigence. It is a form of denial to think that we do not have to change our extravagant and destructive lifestyle if we simply freeze our population — which in any case is not possible unless plagues and wars descend upon on us.

    The 7.30 Report’s host Kerry O’Brien asked if our system of government is up to the job of implementing the necessary changes. An equally valid question is whether Australians are up to the challenges.

    Michael R. James is an Australian research scientist and writer.

  • Call for coup in Wilderness Society

     

    The dispute will come to a head at a meeting in Canberra on May 2. Mr Marr called the meeting in a bid to change the constitution to allow postal votes in society elections.

    The letter says the meeting will be ”the most important in the Wilderness Society’s history”.

    It accuses the national leadership team of a series of failures, including wasting almost $1 million on ”useless consultancies”, creating a culture of bullying and providing little campaign direction.

    A central issue in the battle is an annual general meeting attended by only 14 people that the state campaigners say was called in secret so the national leadership could re-elect themselves.

    Victorian campaigns manager Gavan McFadzean said that claims the May meeting was about ”democratising” the society were cynical – the intent was to protect the existing leadership. Only the national management has access to the society’s full membership list.

    Mr Marr said the allegations were baseless and the management team had a responsibility to protect the society from a ”small minority group that wants to seize control of the organisation”.

     

  • Rudd breaks pledge to buld 260 childcare centres on schoolgrounds

     

    Kevin Rudd campaigned hard on the pledge in the 2007 election appealing to parents who spent large amounts of their time each day travelling to drop off children of different ages at schools and childcare centres.

    Last month Education Minister Julia Gillard conceded that although she had delivered many commitments, she had fallen short in other areas, including building childcare centres on school grounds.
     

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  • Replacement insulation scheme ditched

     

    It is believed that Cabinet ditched the replacement scheme yesterday to focus instead on fixing the 50,000 homes that have had foil insulation installed, and carrying out safety inspections for another 150,000 other homes.

    Assistant Climate Change Minister Greg Combet will not comment on the future of the replacement scheme.

    Finance Minister Lindsay Tanner also declined to comment when questioned on Radio National this morning.

    “I’m afraid that I can’t comment on Cabinet deliberations but we are focused very intently on dealing with the problems that have emerged with the home insulation program,” he said.

    “[We are] dealing with the checking of people who are at risk and making sure that we fix those problems; that’s our key priority in this area and that’s what we’re going to continue to focus on.”

    Opposition Leader Tony Abbott says it is another example of the Government failing to keep its word.

    “First of all the Government said there was going to be this program available, then when they suspended it they said that it would restart, now they’ve said that it’s not going to restart,” he told Fairfax radio.

    “So you’ve had three different stories from this Government and everyone who’s relied on this Government at the earlier stages has been badly let down.”

    Mr Abbott says the Government must compensate insulation companies.

    “There’s also all the businesses that invested large amounts of money on the strength of what they thought was a commitment from the Government,” he said.

    “The Government owes something to them as well and they’ve got to be appropriately looked after.”

    Opposition environment spokesman Greg Hunt says the Government has been considering scrapping the new scheme for a while.

    “The Government’s been split for some time. Greg Combet has wanted to drop the program,” he said.

    “The Prime Minister, for reasons of pride, has wanted to keep the pink batts program going.

    “We know that it’s been a disaster; we think that Combet has stared the Prime Minister down with the evidence that this program is simply unsalvageable.

    “Right now, we want a commitment that every one of the million homes will be inspected, so as we can find and fix 240,000 dangerous and dodgy roofs.”

    Mr Hunt says the Government should release Dr Hawke’s report and there should be a judicial inquiry because the auditor-general’s inquiry is not enough.

    “The auditor-general’s inquiry has excluded, at the Government’s request, an inspection into how the four deaths were linked or otherwise not linked to the program,” he said.

    “But it’s absolutely clear there has been a pattern [of problems], which was warned about as far ago as February 18th last year.

    “And it beggars belief that the auditor-general’s inquiry has ruled out the discussion of the causes and consequences of the program in contributing to these tragedies.”

  • Message from Senator Christine Milne

    Dear friend,

    I’ve just come from Government House in Hobart where, in a truly historic moment, Nick McKim and Cassy O’Connor were sworn in as Australia’s first ever Greens Minister and Cabinet Secretary.

    Please share this historic moment with us – watch this video and pass it on.

    Nick and Christine

    This is an exciting day in Green politics in Australia and we want to share it with all our supporters around the country because we know this would never have happened without your support.

    A million Australians voted Green at the last Federal election, Greens hold balance of power in several parliaments around the country, we have a Greens Speaker in the ACT, and over one in five Tasmanians gave us their vote and their trust last month. Now, after building strength and credibility over 20 years, and after long negotiations, today is the day the Greens have made another breakthrough and joined Cabinet.

    With two seats at the Cabinet table, we can deliver Green outcomes for all Tasmanians – reducing energy bills through energy efficiency upgrades, forging ahead with light rail in Hobart, and positioning Tasmania as a social, economic and environmental leader.

    With direct influence in the Cabinet and direct control over parts of Tasmanian government departments, Nick and Cassy will be your voice at the heart of government for the first time in Australia’s history.

    Please celebrate this moment with us and share it with your friends and family.

    This is a great milestone in Green politics and very significant in the evolution of Australian politics.

    Yours,

    Christine

    Deputy Leader of the Australian Greens

  • An Update on China’s Alternative Energy Vehicle Industry

     

    Even if some Chinese automotive analysts’ modest estimates are to be accepted — that in ten years time, the alternative vehicle segment of the Chinese vehicle market will only account for 10-20% of all sales — it will be a huge market nevertheless.  And as China continues its rapid adoption of wind, solar and hydroelectricity, electric vehicles increasingly will become the renewable transportation choice.

    The {Revitalization and Readjustment Program for the Automotive Industry}, which was issued on March 20, provides a three-year blueprint for the development of the Chinese alternative energy vehicle industry.  The Automotive Industry Program anticipates that capacity to produce alternative energy vehicles (all electric, electric/hybrid, gas/hybrid and ethanol/methanol powered vehicles) will reach 500,000 units/year by 2011.  The program anticipates that sales of alternative energy vehicles will account for approximately 5% to 10% of total vehicle sales in China in 2011.   By 2012 the output value of alternative energy vehicles is expected to reach 500 billion Yuan [~US $75 billion].

    In addition to subsidies for the purchase of alternative energy vehicles, the Automotive Industry Program will support the establishment of model programs in large and mid-sized cities throughout China for the preferential purchase of alternative energy vehicles for public transportation (including taxis) and for vehicles used by government offices, health care, mail and other public facilities.  The Automotive Industry Program also will support the development of charging stations within Chinese cities (a trend that the state-owned sector already is pursuing vigorously). The Chinese government anticipates investing some 10 billion Yuan [US $1.46 billion] in technological research and development in the industry in order to achieve world-class levels of market penetration, technology and manufacturing. 

    The {Development Plan for Alternative Energy Vehicles}, which was expected to be issued by the end of March 2010, was delayed and will not be released until at least July, 2010.  We know that the plan will include connection standards for electric vehicle recharging, subsidies to encourage alternative vehicle purchases by Chinese consumers and measures to encourage the development of a robust auto parts industry.  (With respect to subsidies, there appears to be a consensus that any vehicle that conserves energy—all electric or hybrid vehicles and natural gas, ethanol, methanol or fuel cell-powered vehicles—will be eligible for a subsidy of between 3000 Yuan and 60,000 Yuan, approximately US $400 to $8,700).  

    In China, industry is rapidly ramping up to build a large number of alternative energy vehicles.   The ten most significant Chinese car manufacturers, including the China FAW Group Corporation, Dongfeng Motor Corporation, SAIC Motor Corporation Ltd, Changan Automotive, Chery Automotive, Brilliance Automotive, Tianjin Qingyuan Automotive, BYD Auto, Geely Holding Group, and JAC Motors, all have projects underway to develop or expand capacity to build alternative energy vehicles. 

    According to Miao Yu, the Deputy Minister of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, who is regarded as one of the most authoritative voices in the Chinese government on the automotive industry, there are more than 40 Chinese companies that have alternative energy vehicles in production or under development. 

    As one example, in March, the South Zhuzhou Electric Vehicle Research Institute Co., Ltd, a part of the publicly trade China South Locomotive and Rolling Stock Corporation Ltd. (SH 610766), and the Liaoning Zhuguang Automotive Group Joint Stock Co. entered into a joint venture agreement with the goal of building the largest alternative energy vehicle production center in China.  When complete — in approximately two years — the joint venture company expects to have the capacity to build 10,000 cars/year and another 20,000 sets of alternative energy electronic drive systems and other key components for alternative energy vehicles. 

    The infrastructure that will be required to support the alternative energy vehicle industry in China is being developed by some of the largest state-owned enterprises, including the State Grid Corporation, which is concentrating on building out electric vehicle recharging capacity; Sinopec, which is focusing on developing infrastructure for natural gas and hybrid vehicles; PetroChina, which is developing ethanol capacity and CNOOC, which is also concentrating on developing charging stations at existing gas stations.  Asia Cassava Resources Holdings Limited (HK 00841), the largest exporter of dried cassava chips from Thailand to China, has become an important part of China’s ethanol supply chain.  Among its customers is COFCO, the diversified food products company, whose businesses now include ethanol refining using cassava chips as the feedstock. 

    The obstacles to the full-scale development of the Chinese alternative vehicle industry are tremendous market opportunities for Western companies who control key technologies, which are crucial to the industry.  The relative paucity of intellectual property controlled by the Chinese alternative energy industry requires the Chinese to rely on foreign companies for battery and other key technologies. 

    This is good news for U.S. companies, such as A123 Systems, a pioneer in lithium ion battery technology, who will benefit from the ramp up in alternative vehicle production in China.  In December 2009, A123 Systems, shortly after its own IPO, entered into a joint venture with SAIC Motor Corporation Ltd, a publicly issued (SH 600104) Chinese automobile manufacturer to develop lithium ion batteries in China.   As another example of the opportunities that the development of the Chinese alternative energy car industry affords U.S. companies, China presently does not have a domestic supplier of battery separators for electric vehicles—one of the key components of lithium batteries, which accounts for some 30% of the cost of each battery.

    Celgard, LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of Polypore International, Inc. (NYSE: PPO), which recently hosted President Obama at its North Carolina plant, and Exxon-Mobile Chemical are two U.S. companies in the microfiber battery separator industry that will benefit from the Chinese ramp up of electric vehicle production, much as American Superconductor Corp. (AMSC) has benefited from the explosive growth in China’s indigenous wind turbine industry.  

    Lou Schwartz, a lawyer and China specialist who focuses his work on the energy and metals sectors in the People’s Republic of China, is a frequent contributor to Renewable Energy World.   Through China Strategies, LLC, Lou provides clients research and analysis, due diligence, merger and acquisition, private equity investment and other support for trade and investment in China’s burgeoning energy and metals industries. Lou earned degrees in East Asian Studies from Michigan and Harvard and a J.D. from George Washington University.  He can be reached at lou@chinastrategiesllc.com.

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