In a move that is likely to bolster the negotiating position of emerging economies, such as China and India, World Bank president Robert Zoellick echoed their view that the onus was on rich nations to deliver an “equitable deal” at the upcoming UN climate change conference in Copenhagen that acknowledges their historic responsibility for global warming.
“Developing countries are disproportionately affected by climate change – a crisis that is not of their making and for which they are the least prepared,” he said.
The report recommends that by 2030 rich nations will need to invest $400bn a year to help developing nations cut emissions through the adoption of new low carbon technologies and $75bn a year to help them adapt to the impact of climate change, in addition to the hundreds of billions of dollars of R&D investment that will be required to develop cost-effective clean technologies.
The scale of the sums involved are an order of magnitude higher than those currently being considered by many rich nations. For example, to date the only offer of climate change investment made as part of the Copenhagen process is UK prime minister Gordon Brown’s proposal that rich nations invest $100 billion a year to help poorer nations cut emissions.
Justin Lin, World Bank chief economist, warned that without increased investment from developed economies poorer nations would find themselves unable to cope with the impacts of climate change. “Developing countries, which have historically contributed little to global warming, are now, ironically, faced with 75 to 80 per cent of the potential damage from it,” he said. “They need help to cope with climate change, as they are preoccupied with existing challenges such as reducing poverty and hunger and providing access to energy and water.”
The report also claims that such investments will make economic sense for industrialised economies, arguing that the cost of addressing climate change will only rise as “more and more investments are made in the wrong kinds of infrastructure and energy”.
The report is likely to be welcomed by green groups, many of whom have long complained that the World Bank has been guilty of undermining investment in low carbon technologies in the developing world by favouring carbon intensive projects.
For example, the bank has faced consistent criticism for funding coal projects and it recently suspended investment in the palm oil sector after an investigation found that it had provided financing to a company allegedly linked to rainforest deforestation.
The Bank said that it has improved its record of investment in clean technologies, increasing financing for renewable energy and energy efficiency projects in developing countries by 24 per cent in the fiscal year 2009 to over $3.3bn, a record high. It added that renewable energy and energy-efficiency projects last year made up over 40 per cent of the $8.2bn of energy financing provided by the bank, although critics will point out that 60 per cent of fina ncing is still funnelled into conventional energy projects.
“During the season, warmer-than-average temperatures engulfed much of the planet’s surface,” the centre said. Australia and New Zealand had their warmest August since records began.
However, central Canada and the United States were the exceptions, with unusually cool temperatures. “In some areas, such as the western United States, temperatures were much cooler than average,” the report said.
The unusually warm summer temperatures for much of the world’s oceans were due to El Niño, the periodic warming of the Pacific. If El Niño strengthens, global temperatures are likely to set new records, the report said. So far, 2009 has been the fifth warmest year on record.
Some scientists have suggested that, the effects of El Niño, coupled with warming due to climate change could well make the coming decade the hottest in human history.
Nasa predicted at the start of this year that 2009 and 2010 could see the setting of new global temperature records.
The report also noted the continuing retreat in Arctic sea ice over the summer. Sea ice covered an average of 6.3m sq kilometres (2.42m sq miles) during August, according to the national snow and ice data centre. That was 18.4% the 1979-2000 average.
The Guardian understands that key differences have emerged between the US and Europe over the structure of a new worldwide treaty on global warming. Sources on the European side say the US approach could undermine the new treaty and weaken the world’s ability to cut carbon emissions.
The treaty will be negotiated in December at a UN meeting in Copenhagen and is widely billed as the last chance to save the planet from a temperature rise of 2C or higher, which the EU considers dangerous.
Copenhagen climate deal: ‘The world has been set a deadline’ Link to this audio
“If we end up with a weaker framework with less stringent compliance, then that is not so good for the chances of hitting 2C,” a source close to the EU negotiating team said.
News of the split comes amid mounting concern that the Copenhagen talks will not make the necessary progress.
Ban Ki-moon, the UN general secretary, told the Guardian last night that negotiations had stalled and need to “get moving”.
Ahead of an unprecedented UN climate change summit of almost 100 heads of government in New York next week, Moon said the leaders held in their hands “the future of this entire humanity”.
He said: “We are deeply concerned that the negotiation is not making much headway [and] it is absolutely and crucially important for the leaders to demonstrate their political will and leadership.”
The dispute between the US and Europe is over the way national carbon reduction targets would be counted. Europe has been pushing to retain structures and systems set up under the Kyoto protocol, the existing global treaty on climate change. US negotiators have told European counterparts that the Obama administration intends to sweep away almost all of the Kyoto architecture and replace it with a system of its own design.
The US distanced itself from Kyoto under President Bush because it made no demands on China, and the treaty remains political poison in Washington. European negotiators knew the US would be reluctant to embrace Kyoto, but they hoped they would be able to use it as a foundation for a new agreement.
If Kyoto is scrapped, it could take several years to negotiate a replacement framework, the source added, a delay that could strike a terminal blow at efforts to prevent dangerous climate change. “In Europe we want to build on Kyoto, but the US proposal would in effect kill it off. If we have to start from scratch then it all takes time. It could be 2015 or 2016 before something is in place, who knows.”
Europe is unlikely to stand up to the US, the source added. “I am not sure that the EU actually has the guts for a showdown and that may be exactly the problem.” The US plan is likely to anger many in the developing world, who are keen to retain Kyoto because of the obligations it makes on rich countries.
Under Kyoto, greenhouse gas reductions are subject to an international system that regulates the calculation of emissions, the purchase of carbon credits and contribution of sectors such as forestry. The US is pushing instead for each country to set its own rules and to decide unilaterally how to meet its target.
The US is yet to offer full details on how its scheme might work, though a draft “implementing agreement” submitted to the UN by the Obama team in May contained a key clause that emissions reductions would be subject to “conformity with domestic law”.
Legal experts say the phrase is designed to protect the US from being forced to implement international action it does not agree with. Farhana Yamin, an environmental lawyer with the Institute of Development Studies, who worked on Kyoto, said: “It seems a bit backwards. The danger is that the domestic tail starts to wag the international dog.”
The move reflects a “prehistoric” level of debate on climate change in the wider US, according to another high-ranking European official, and anxiety in the Obama administration about its ability to get a new global treaty ratified in the US Senate, where it would require a two-thirds majority vote. The US has not ratified a major international environment treaty since 1992 and President Clinton never submitted the Kyoto protocol for approval, after a unaminous Senate vote indicated it would be rejected on economic grounds.
The US proposal for unilateral rule-setting “is all about getting something through the Senate,” the source said. “But I don’t have the feeling that the US has thought through what it means for the Copenhagen agreement.”
The move could open loopholes for countries to meet targets without genuine carbon cuts, they said. Europe is not concerned that the US would exploit such loopholes, but it fears that other countries might.
The US State Department, which handles climate change, would not comment.
Stuart Eizenstat, who negotiated Kyoto for the US, said: “There has been a sea change in US attitudes [on climate] and the new president is deeply committed on this issue. But the EU needs to understand the limitations in the US. The reality is that is it impossible for my successor to negotiate something in Copenhagen beyond that which Congress will give the administration in domestic cap-and-trade legislation.”
Nigel Purvis, who also worked on the US Kyoto team, said: “It’s not welcome news in Europe but the Kyoto architecture shouldn’t have any presumed status. Many decisions were taken when the United States was not at the negotiating table. Importing the Kyoto architecture into a new agreement would leave it vulnerable to charges of repackaging.”
He denied the US move would weaken the agreement. “It is important for the US to negotiate an agreement it can join, because another agreement that did not involve the United States would set back efforts to protect the climate. Is it weaker to have a system that applies to more countries? I would argue not.”
The summit drew together managers of the world’s leading investment funds, including those from HSBC, Henderson, Schroders, Société Générale and Scottish Widows, and pensions funds from California public employees to the BBC and Church of England. It was aimed at overcoming entrenched opposition within the US and elsewhere to climate change legislation, by showcasing the scale of investor support for climate change action and the potential for mobilisation of private capital.
“For anybody who suggests that regulating carbon or acting on climate change is impractical, here is appropriate contradiction,” said Mindy Lubber, the president of Ceres, the green investor network that helped organise the conference. However, she warned: “Investors are ready to put money into green tech, but they are not going to act until the government acts and makes clear that the right incentives are in the right place.”
The investors’ endorsement for action on climate change comes amid signs of a loss of momentum in the final stretch of negotiations towards a deal to tackle global warming in Copenhagen in December. The group warned that failure to act effectively would have disastrous consequences in human and economic terms.
In contrast to inaction, Lord Nicholas Stern, author of the 2006 Stern report on the economics of climate change, said: “Building a low carbon economy creates opportunities for investment in new technologies that promise to transform our society in the same way as … electricity or railways did in the past.” He added: “Unmitigated climate change poses a threat to the global economy.”
In their joint statement the investors supported the tougher targets for reducing greenhouse gas emissions put forward for negotiation at Copenhagen, including cuts in greenhouse gas emissions by developed countries of 25-40% by 2020.The conference was held amid rising frustration that the US Congress and the international negotiations are faltering in the final days before Copenhagen. Stern, in his remarks, said it was time to move away from the “quarrelsome stupid politics” surrounding climate change.
Council is considering 13 options. The outcome residents fear most is a “reactive management response” where council would cut services such as sewerage and water to the beachside properties, effectively making the properties uninhabitable.
There is no provision for financial compensation under this option _ and residents would be responsible for having their properties demolished.
Mrs Secombe said if the council chose to evict them from their homes, it would strip them of their future. “We would be desperate. We’re just pensioners and we don’t have much,” Mrs Secombe said.
“Our greatest worry is, as we get older, what might happen to us and if we had to go to a nursing home, how would we afford it.”
Other options up for consideration include building sea walls and artificial reefs, or dredging Lake Cathie and pumping sand on to the eroding beach.
Lake Cathie Coastal Resident’s Group spokesman Stephen Hunt said it was “bewildering” to think the council could even consider allowing erosion to get so close that people would have to abandon their houses.
“There are plenty of other options such as building a sea wall, dredging part of the lake. It would be devastating if they didn’t try that,” Mr Hunt said.
Port Macquarie MP Peter Besseling said beach erosion was a problem right along the NSW coastline and needed to be tackled by all levels of government.
“This is a time-lapse tsunami, it’s a natural disaster over time,” he said.
Council development director Matt Rogers said no decision would be made until after submissions closed on October 7, but said forcing people to vacate their houses as erosion took over “is not council’s preferred option”.
A total of eight companies (Daimler, EnBW, Linde, OMV, Shell, Total, Vattenfall and the NOW GmbH National Organisation Hydrogen and Fuel Cell Technology) are working to bring the fueling network to fruition. In its first phase, scheduled for 2009-2011, the companies involved will lobby for public support and begin fuel station installations. The second phase will see the mass rollout of hydrogen-powered cars along with an accompanying fuel network.
Germany isn’t the only country trying to speed up the adoption of hydrogen fuel cell technology. Canada is working on a hydrogen highway to link Vancouver and Whistler in time for the 2010 Winter Olympics, while Denmark is planning a hydrogen network to connect Denmark, Sweden, Norway and Germany.