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“DOE’s wind report is a thorough look at America’s wind resource, its industrial capabilities, and future energy prices, and confirms the viability and commercial maturity of wind as a major contributor to America’s energy needs, now and in the future,” DOE Assistant Secretary of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy for the U.S. Department of Energy Andy Karsner,  said.  “To dramatically reduce greenhouse gas emissions and enhance our energy security, clean power generation at the gigawatt-scale will be necessary, and will require us to take a comprehensive approach to scaling renewable wind power, streamlining siting and permitting processes, and expanding the domestic wind manufacturing base.”
 
Included in the report are an examination of America’s technological and manufacturing capabilities, the future costs of energy sources, U.S. wind energy resources, and the environmental and economic impacts of wind development.  Under the 20% wind scenario, installations of new wind power capacity would increase to more than 16,000 megawatts per year by 2018, and continue at that rate through 2030.

“The report shows that wind power can provide 20% of the nation’s electricity by 2030, and be a critical part of the solution to global warming,” said AWEA Executive Director Randall Swisher.  “This level of wind power is the equivalent of taking 140 million cars off the road,” he said.  “The report identifies the central constraints to achieving 20% – transmission, siting, manufacturing and technology – and demonstrates how each can be overcome.  As an inexhaustible domestic resource, wind strengthens our energy security, improves the quality of the air we breathe, slows climate change, and revitalizes rural communities.”

The report finds that achieving a 20 percent wind contribution to U.S. electricity supply would:

• Reduce carbon dioxide emissions from electricity generation by 25 percent in 2030.
• Reduce natural gas use by 11%;
• Reduce water consumption associated with electricity generation by 4 trillion gallons by 2030;
• Increase annual revenues to local communities to more than $1.5 billion by 2030; and
• Support roughly 500,000 jobs in the U.S., with an average of more than 150,000 workers directly employed by the wind industry.

At 20% of electric power generation, significant growth in the manufacturing supply chain would create jobs and remedy the current shortage in parts for wind turbines. 

Reducing the use of natural gas could save money for consumers due to the resulting downward pressure on the price of natural gas, according to AWEA.
 
“We must look at meeting future electric demands in a cost-effective way,” said Suedeen Kelly, FERC Commissioner.  “The 20% wind scenario would only cost 2 percent more than the cost of the baseline scenario without wind.  At 50 cents per month for the average ratepayer, that is a small price to pay for the climate, water, natural gas, and energy security benefits it would buy–and it does not even count the stability provided to consumers by eliminating fuel price risk.”

“Though economic and other factors will ultimately determine our energy future, we believe the 20 percent wind scenario is feasible, but only with a major national transmission highway system.  Delivering power from the best windy regions to the growing urban supply requires a bigger, stronger transmission system. Strong regional and interregional planning as well as broad allocation of costs will allow the United States to rely on a broader diversity of generation resources,” said Mike Heyeck, Senior VP of AEP Transmission.

The report comes at an important time in wind development.  In 2007, wind was one of the fastest growing sources of electricity in the nation, second only to natural gas for the third consecutive year.  According to an AWEA report released last week, the U.S. wind energy industry continued new installations at a breakneck pace in the first quarter of 2008, putting 1,400 megawatts (MW) or approximately $3 billion worth of new generating capacity in place–enough to serve the equivalent of 400,000 homes–coupled with investment in 17 new manufacturing facilities over the past year.

“Wind is an important part of BP Alternative Energy’s business and of BP’s diverse energy portfolio. Siting and wildlife issues will be a challenge, but AWEA and industry leaders are committed to working with stakeholders to make wind the environmental electricity choice,” said Bob Lukefahr, President, Power Americas, BP Alternative Energy North America.  “This report underscores the benefits of diversifying our electricity sources.  Growing to 20% wind requires investment in new manufacturing and capital projects, an estimated 500,000 jobs, and brings rural economic development across the country.”

Background

In 2006, President Bush articulated a national imperative for greater energy efficiency and a more diversified energy portfolio. Citing wind energy as part of the solution, he noted that areas of the nation with good wind resources could satisfy up to 20 percent of America’s total electricity demand.

Subsequently, government and industry came together to thoroughly explore the feasibility of generating 20 percent of U.S. electricity from wind by 2030 and produced this joint report to aid policy-makers and the public in better understanding the issues, investments, and likely outcomes associated with pursuing this objective.

To download the full report, please go to www.20percentwind.org.

The trick lies in IBM’s ability to cool the tiny solar cell. Concentrating the equivalent of 2,000 suns on such a small area generates enough heat to melt stainless steel, something the researchers experienced first hand in their experiments. But by borrowing innovations from its own research and development in cooling computer chips, the team was able to cool the solar cell from greater than 1,600 degrees Celsius to just 85 degrees Celsius.

The initial results of this project were presented at the 33^rd IEEE Photovoltaic Specialists conference last week, where the IBM researchers explained in detail how their liquid metal cooling interface is able to transfer heat from the solar cell to a copper cooling plate much more efficiently than anything else available today.

The IBM research team developed a system that achieved promising results by coupling a commercial solar cell to an advanced IBM liquid metal thermal cooling system using methods developed for the microprocessor industry.

Specifically, the IBM team used a very thin layer of a liquid metal made of a gallium and indium compound that they applied between the chip and a cooling block. Such layers, called thermal interface layers, transfer the heat from the chip to the cooling block so that the chip temperature can be kept low. The company says that its liquid metal solution offers the best thermal performance available today, at low costs, and the technology was successfully developed by IBM to cool high power computer chips earlier.

While concentrator-based photovoltaics technologies have been around since the 1970s, they have received renewed interest in recent times. With very high concentrations, they have the potential to offer the lowest-cost solar electricity for large-scale power generation, provided the temperature of the cells can be kept low, and cheap and efficient optics can be developed for concentrating the light to very high levels.

IBM is exploring four main areas of photovoltaic research: using current technologies to develop cheaper and more efficient silicon solar cells, developing new solution-processed thin-film photovoltaic devices, concentrator photovoltaics and future generation photovoltaic architectures based upon nanostructures such as semiconductor quantum dots and nanowires.

The goal of the projects is to develop efficient photovoltaic structures that would reduce the cost, minimize the complexity and improve the flexibility of producing solar electric power.

By Steve Andrews and Randy Udall – American Society for Peak Oil
On April 13, Reuters reported the following from Riyadh:
Saudi Arabia’s King Abdullah said he had ordered some new oil discoveries left untapped to preserve oil wealth in the world’s top exporter for future generations…
“When there were some new finds, I told them, ‘no, leave it in the ground, with grace from god, our children need it’,” King Abdullah said…
Saudi production capacity stands at around 11.3 million bpd, and is scheduled to rise to 12.5 million bpd next year.
The King’s remarks seem to confirm a statement made last year by Saudi oil minister Ali al-Naimi who, when asked “How high can your production go?” replied, “We’ll get to 12.5 million barrels a day and then we’ll see.”
If the Saudi announcement was a bombshell, American nearly newspapers ignored it. We decided to canvass experts we respect to see what they thought. Excerpts follow:

Tom Petrie, vice president, Merrill Lynch:

“King Abdullah’s quote speaks to the fast-emerging reality of what I call ‘practical peak oil.’ The Saudis and other exporters are placing a new emphasis on elongating the petroleum exploitation and depletion cycle. This stems from a growing awareness of the challenges of conventional resource maturity, as well as rising resource nationalism. This is likely to result in an earlier occurrence of global peak oil output than many consumers yet recognize.”

Charles T. Maxwell, senior energy analyst, Weeden & Co:

“If Saudi Arabia’s oil reserves are not going to be made available to the world in future years, beyond the expansion they have already signaled (to 12.5 million barrels/day), then the geologic oil supply constraints that we are feeling in many other parts of the world are going to close in on us earlier and more severely than we previously thought. It’s a major change in policy. It’s a powerful message. It makes the geologic message that much more decisive.”

Chris Skrebowski, editor of Petroleum Review:

“King Abdullah’s statement represents the final seal of approval on an emerging Saudi policy of restricting output to save oil for future generations. In recent years the Saudis have been managing expectations of future capacity steadily downwards. No one now talks of their reaching 15mn b/d. If they reach 12.5mn b/d, while maintaining 1-2mn b/d of ‘spare’ capacity, we should plan for Saudi production to be 9-11mn b/d for the foreseeable future.
“High oil prices and bulging treasuries are giving producing countries the option of maximizing plateau production. We may never know if these decisions are being dictated by geology or driven by a political imperative of ‘saving oil for later generations.’ I suspect it’s a mixture of the two.
“In any case, there is now a broad-based move by energy exporters, including Russia, Angola, Azerbaijan, and Norway, to restrict expansion to maximize plateau flows. If this takes hold, then global supplies will reach a peak rather earlier than analysis of future projects would indicate.”

Matt Simmons, chairman of Simmons & Co. International:

“This statement by the Supreme Ruler of Saudi Arabia has far-reaching implications. That King Addullah would now instruct his servants to conserve the oil they pump and save some for the kids and grandkids of today’s Saudi citizens is most profound.
“King Abdullah has exhibited a sense of wisdom not seen since his brother, King Faisal ruled the Kingdom until his tragic assassination. Assuming his health continues, he might lead Saudi Arabia successfully into a post-peak world and create sustainable middle class wealth for the 90% of Saudi Arabia who had accidentally been left behind.
“The world should bless this intelligent pronouncement. It is a reflection that Twilight set in on the oilfields of Arabia a few years ago.”

Richard Nehring, president of Nerhingdatabase.com

“This development is part of what I’ve called the ‘Prudential Plateau.’ Some key countries with large reserves and resources have decided to maintain production at current levels—but not increase it. This is a two-edged sword: you can no longer count on these countries for increases, but you can count on them for the base. The United Arab Emirates and Qatar will probably join in this shift.”

Jeffrey Rubin, chief economist, CIBC World markets

“A far more plausible explanation for faltering growth in Saudi production and exports is that they are rapidly approaching maximum production. Given soaring rates of internal consumption for oil, they will soon be exporting less not more crude to world oil markets.
“Russian Natural Resource Minister Yuri Trutnev’s has said that Russian production and exports will fall this year, for the first time in a decade. We forecast that exports from OPEC, Russia and Mexico will actually decline by 2.5 million barrels per day between now and 2012. It’s far from obvious who is going to fill this supply gap, let alone meet the need of future global crude demand growth.”

Jeremy Gilbert, BP’s retired chief petroleum engineer

“I have no idea whether there was a real choice for the Saudis to make. Perhaps it’s all ‘spin’; perhaps there were discoveries, but there was some property of the reservoirs which made them very difficult to develop, and it made sense to delay development until improved technology or much higher prices arrived; perhaps it’s the plain basic truth – a very rare commodity.
“What I do know is that several countries in the Gulf have long chosen to operate their fields with depletion rates far below those that a Western company would consider optimal, or even sensible. Depletion rates of between 1 and 2%/ per year are not uncommon in the United Arab Emirates. Local leaders have repeatedly said that they feel an obligation to preserve some of their natural resources. These feelings must be intensified when their recent production has been sold for US dollars which have depreciated by 25% or more against other strong world currencies over the last four years.
“The countries around the Gulf, which would once have come to the aid of a faltering U.S., now are either delighted about the U.S. plight or just don’t care. They are not going to do anything to reduce world oil prices. Instead, they are going to maximize their economic take while minimizing depletion of their sole natural resource.”

Herman Franssen, president of International Energy Associates

“King Abdullah’s remarks reflect the new thinking in the Middle East, where the Kuwaiti parliament has also expressed a need to stabilize oil exports. Higher oil prices enable producers to focus more on domestic investments than on increasing exports. All Gulf countries have seen huge growth in domestic demand for power and fuel. By 2015, Iran may consume as much of its crude oil as they export. The King’s remarks mean that we in the industrialized countries better start looking for other solutions.”
Steve Andrews and Randy Udall are two of the five co-founders of ASPO-USA.

“Late last week they introduced their Electricity Industry Restructuring Bill into parliament.
“This legislation would create broad ranging powers for Treasurer Michael Costa to restructure and sell off the state’s electricity industry in any way he sees fit, without further reference to parliament.
“The Coalition’s credibility is on the line. If they hand over control of the electricity industry to Treasurer Costa, their promise to scrutinise the sell-off will prove to have been nothing but political posturing to placate unhappy rural MPs.
“If the electricity sell-off plan goes ahead regional NSW will be particularly badly affected, with the loss of hundreds of jobs and service cuts.
“Privatisation of Telstra left households outside major cities with substandard telecommunications services. Now the Iemma government wants to do the same to electricity.
“Today’s meeting adds to community pressure on the Iemma government and the Opposition to stop the sell-off push. Hundreds of power workers will be there to hear from members of parliament and union representatives.
“It is not too late to stop the sell-off. If the Coalition votes joins the Greens in opposing the legislation in the Upper House, we only need three more votes. I have no doubt a strong community campaign could put an end to this privatisation,” Dr Kaye said.