Governments, businesses and consumers will need to work together to eliminate manmade greenhouse gas emissions by the end of this century, in order to have a good chance of preventing global warming of two degrees celcius – in an affordable way.
That is a key finding from Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) scientists and officials, in a Synthesis report, which summarises the causes, impacts and solutions of rising temperatures.
It has been termed as “the most important document on climate change”, combining the three studies from the IPCC’s AR5 assessment that have been produced during the past 13 months. It will also be the final document United Nations countries will use to formulate their pledges to reduce carbon dioxide emissions in a global deal on climate change, due to be signed in Paris next year.
As such, scientists and governments have hotly debated the language of the Synthesis report during the past week, to ensure it paints a picture that will drive appropriate action on climate change.
Today’s report concludes that warming of the climate “is unequivocal” and that its effects are already being felt around the world, causing ice caps to shrink, and sea levels to rise.
It also argues with greater certainty than before that rising greenhouse gas emissions from industry, and other human activity, is to blame for the warming climate.
However, it says that it is within our reach to limit temperature rises to below two degrees – the target that was set by governments in 2009 to avoid catastrophic climate change.
“We have the means to limit climate change,” said Dr Rajendra Pachauri, chairman of the IPCC. “The solutions are many and allow for continued economic and human development. All we need is the will to change, which we trust will be motivated by knowledge and an understanding of the science of climate change.”
He added that in order to have a good chance of staying below two degrees at a manageable cost, greenhouse gas emissions should drop by 40 to 70 per cent between 2010 and 2050, falling to “zero or below” by 2100.
“We have that opportunity, and the choice is in our hands,” he added.
Continued emissions of greenhouse gases will cause further warming and increase the risks to all economies and societies, but particularly poorer countries that lack the capacity to cope with impacts of extreme temperatures, flooding and drought, the report says.
“Many of those most vulnerable to climate change have contributed and contribute little to greenhouse gas emissions,” Pachauri added. “Addressing climate change will not be possible if individual agents advance their own interests independently; it can only be achieved through cooperative responses, including international cooperation.”
The report argues that limiting carbon emissions could delay the impacts of climate change, potentially by several decades, allowing more time for countries to adapt to the impacts.
However, it argues that delaying new measures for cutting emissions until after 2030 would make it significantly harder to achieve the two degree target.
“It is technically feasible to transition to a low-carbon economy,” said Youba Sokona, co-chair of IPCC Working Group III. “But what is lacking are appropriate policies and institutions. The longer we wait to take action, the more it will cost to adapt and mitigate climate change.”
The IPCC predicts that ambitious efforts to reduce greenhouse gases would margially reduce economic growth. In business-as-usual scenarios, consumption would grow by 1.6 to 3 per cent per year over this century, but this would be reduced by 0.6 percentage points in tackling climate change.
However, these economic estimates do not include the benefits of curbing climate change. “Compared to the imminent risk of irreversible climate change impacts, the risks of mitigation are manageable” said Sokona.
The report was welcomed by a number of green businesses that have commited to reducing their greenhouse gases in line with, or exceeding government targets.
Philippe Joubert, chairman of The Prince of Wales’s Corporate Leaders Group, which includes Skanska, Kingfisher and Coca-Cola Enterprises (CCE), said the report underlined the need for politicians to act on tackling climate change.
“This report, developed by thousands of scientific experts, drawing on over 30,000 scientific papers, has reaffirmed that human interference is the origin of climate disruption and that climate change is humanity’s greatest threat,” he said.
“It also concludes that there are solutions within our reach, and this is a message that business leaders understand. Many businesses, such as those represented in the Corporate Leaders Group are already investing in a low-carbon future. But if we are to unlock the scale of change that we need, we must have a level of policy clarity equal to this scientific clarity.”
Hubert Patricot, executive vice president and European group president at CCE, said the report showed that governments and businesses needed to work together on reducing emissions and adapting to the risks of temperature rises. “Climate change has significant impacts on our core business, and is something we are already factoring into our long-term strategy,” he said. “This report highlights the reality of climate change to all businesses, but we can’t make a meaningful change alone. Government and business need to work together to mobilize a concerted and coordinated response to address the most significant environmental issue of our time.”
Nick Molho, executive director of the Aldersgate Group, said the report gave both a clear warning and a message of hope. “It has made it crystal clear that man-made climate change is a reality but has also shown that prompt, cost-effective and coordinated action by the world’s governments can help limit the detrimental impacts that unabated climate change would have on the natural environment and the world economy,” he said in a statement.
“It is now time for governments to deliver a deal at the pace and scale required by climate science.”
The report was also welcomed by the Obama administration in the USA. John P. Holdren, director of the White House Office of Science & Technology Policy, said the report is another wake-up call to the global community that the world must act “together swiftly and aggressively in order to stem climate change and avoid its worst impacts”.
“These studies-the most comprehensive and detailed ever-confirm that climate change caused by human activities is having impacts on ecosystems and human well-being across the United States and around the world,” he said in a statement. “The new IPCC report underscores the need to fully implement President Obama’s Climate Action Plan, including continued engagement with other countries on ambitious emissions-reductions targets and the policies and technologies necessary to achieve them.”
