Author: Neville

  • A federal ICAC? ‘Accountability’ & the decay of politics

    A federal ICAC? ‘Accountability’ & the decay of politics

    by · September 14, 2014

    [Graphic: Newcastle Herald]

    NSW Liberals bowled over by ICAC [Graphic: Newcastle Herald]

    It’s been enjoyable indeed to watch the humiliation of both sides of NSW politics on the ICAC witness stand. But, unlike Peter Hartcher in the Sydney Morning Herald — or the Greens, who have been pushing the idea for some time — I don’t think a federal ICAC would either solve the problem of “political corruption” or hold the political class “accountable” any more than the NSW version has. To understand why, it’s necessary to grasp the social basis of the crisis of Australian politics, as well as the limits of modern representative politics in general.Hartcher is scathing of all the political parties bar the Greens, but singles out Clive Palmer for voting for and pushing legislation in his own interests. Yet the reason the political class (most acutely in the case of Palmer, but this holds true across the board) appears to be increasingly self-interested and unaccountable has little to do with a fundamental change in its historic patterns of behaviour. In fact politicians, far from representing some kind of pure “general” or “national” interest, have always acted at least in part in the interests of their bases of support in civil society, as well as in the interests of the state itself. To imagine that Liberal MPs have only recently started doing favours for business supporters is to obscure the reason for existence of the Liberal party — to provide a pro-business bulwark against Labourism. Similarly, the idea that the ALP is only these days feathering the nests of union bureaucrats who have always been central to the party’s operations is more than a little weird.

    Once you realize that much of what is being caught out now has actually been business as usual in the past, the issue starts to look a little different. It also explains the perplexity of many politicians as to why they should be punished for what is just normal politics in their eyes, and why they complain that the rules are simply becoming too tough or, in Tony Abbott’s tin-eared view, too confusing to understand.

    The real problem for the political class doesn’t lie in the shady dealings that have long infected politics, but in the way that the social bases of the “representative” political system that dominated last century have eroded, hollowed out and in some cases dissolved entirely. It was the relationship of politicians and parties to broad and powerful social groups that provided the material basis for the appearance that “representation” meant the representation of general social interests. When the ALP was the political arm of a trade union movement that not only had as members three or four times the current proportion of employees, but also had active and self-organised networks in workplaces across the country, the party’s sectional base could not be written off as a narrow, irrelevant rump. And the Left-Right polarity of the post-WWII era could have the appearance of playing out, in political form, the great labour-capital divide of modern Australian society. (For a more detailed examination of the hollowing out of Labor’s base, see this from 2012.)

    With the loss of such roots in society, the political class is unable to pose as being representative of society in the way it once could, and this is the key reason for its loss of authority over the last 30 years. It no longer appears accountable to a large part of society, only to its very narrow base of core supporters, or in PUP’s case to Palmer’s personal business interests. It is this state of affairs, one that exists not in people’s heads but in reality, which drives an increasingly punitive popular anti-political mood. That this mood has started to spread to the middle class and even sections of big business, especially after the catastrophic inability of the Abbott government to win consent for its pro-business Budget, suggests just how difficult the situation has become. While having a different view of the causes of the crisis of politics to this blog, Paul Kelly has spelled out the worry among elites as to where this might all lead:

    I think our political culture is being debased and I’ve argued that we are now in what I call a crisis of the system. For me, this is the main takeout from the entire Rudd-Gillard period. And I argue here that what this period shows is that governing is becoming a lot more difficult, and reform, national interest reform is becoming even more difficult still.

    The less connected with society the politicians are, the less they can drive through agendas of the kind that Labor did during the Hawke-Keating years: winning its own supporters in the unions to accepting sacrifice in the interests of boosting weak capital accumulation and more power for bosses relative to workers in the workplace.

    Greens staffers and MP celebrate “the most important accountability mechanism in the state”

    Greens celebrate “the most important accountability mechanism” in NSW

    To think that a body like ICAC can overcome these kinds of systemic problems is entirely misplaced. All that does is strengthen the idea that the state itself must police its political class, increasingly free of any popular accountability. When NSW Greens MP John Kaye called ICAC “the most important accountability mechanism in the state” he was feeding this logic. Despite my caveats later in this post, surely democratic accountability is far more important than that imposed by an unelected state commission that has broad powers of surveillance and coercion?

    The deference to ICAC is part of the same constellation of ideas that looks to greater (or even full) public funding of parties and election campaigns, often alongside selective or blanket bans on private donations. In each case the aim is to reduce direct financial control by private citizens over the political process. This is part of a longer-run trend of the political class coming to terms with its withered base and therefore looking for a stable financial and organisational basis for its activities that no longer relies on a populace increasingly hostile to it. The current scandals over developer donations are themselves the result of the decline of previously much broader sources of party funding. The retreat of the unions, for example, has left the ALP more reliant on other sources of cash, and the likes of Eddie Obeid were central to trying to fill the gap. This happened alongside increasing state funding of election campaigns since the 1980s, so there is less pressure for parties to build the same kinds of mass organisations and networks that sustained them in earlier times. Combined with compulsory voting, these trends have obscured the decomposition of politics, although in recent years things have started to become much clearer — especially as both sides of NSW politics have been sucked into the ICAC singularity.

    Sadly, the NSW Greens have been leading the way on such arguments, giving them a Left veneer. When they collaborated with the O’Farrell government to outlaw organisational donations to parties on the basis that this would limit “corporate” influence, the legislation ended up being successfully challenged in the courts not by big business but by NSW unions, who rightly pointed out how the laws had further diminished working class influence over politics. The end result for the Greens was a painful internal debate alongside public humiliation for their stance. Without for a minute defending the financial dealings that have been central to the political system for over a century, it should be possible to recognise that limiting popular influence over politics is a move away from — and not towards — a more democratic society. No amount of hand wringing over the socio-economic disparities that underpin inequality of political representation should lead us to think that the state can or will solve that inequality by political or legislative fiat.

    So perhaps the alternative is a return to a more socially rooted, more truly “representative” political system? Leaving aside whether there is a social basis for the rebuilding of those institutions, such a view misunderstands the limitations of political representation in the capitalist state. In developing his critique of the state, Marx argued that the separation between civil society and state in bourgeois society could not be resolved through representative democracy. This is because the state stands “over against” the competing interests of a civil society of atomised private individuals. As Lucio Colletti lucidly summarises in his introduction to Marx’s Early Writings:

    At this point one sees how Marx’s critique of the separation between state and civil society is carried to its logical (and extreme) conclusion. Even from a formal point of view, the representative principle of the modern state is shown to be a fundamental contradiction in terms. In so far as parliamentary deputies are elected by the people, it is thereby recognised that the principle of “sovereignty” or power belongs in the popular mass itself. It is admitted that delegates “draw their authority” from the latter — and so can be no more than people’s representatives, bound by instructions or by the “mandate” of their electors. Yet no sooner has the election taken place and the deputies been “sworn in” then this principle is up-ended: they are no longer “mere delegates”, mere servants, but independent of their electors. Their assembly, parliament, no longer appears as an emanation of society but as society itself — as the real society outside which there remains nothing but a formless aggregate, an inchoate mass of private wishes.

    The severely limited and alienated nature of political representation cannot be overcome through a reconfiguration of representative forms, or even of the state itself. That is, it cannot be solved at the level of politics because it is the product of deeper social contradictions. Rather, it requires a more fundamental social reorganisation where the interests of individuals and those of society as a whole can be brought together, not in the form of the “illusory community” that is the political state but through “an association, in which the free development of each is the condition for the free development of all”. Such an arrangement — far more democratic than anything we have today — would resolve the question of accountability in a way that today’s ICAC boosters cannot even begin to imagine, precisely because they are committed to trying to rehabilitate the “illusory community” currently decaying before everyone’s eyes

    – See more at: http://left-flank.org/2014/09/14/federal-icac-accountability-decay-politics/#sthash.0YZucWRN.dpuf

  • Study resolves discrepancy in Greenland temperatures during end of last ice age

    Study resolves discrepancy in Greenland temperatures during end of last ice age

    09/04/2014

    CORVALLIS, Ore. – A new study of three ice cores from Greenland documents the warming of the large ice sheet at the end of the last ice age – resolving a long-standing paradox over when that warming occurred.

    Large ice sheets covered North America and northern Europe some 20,000 years ago during the coldest part of the ice age, when global average temperatures were about four degrees Celsius (or seven degrees Fahrenheit) colder than during pre-industrial times. And then changes in the Earth’s orbit around the sun increased the solar energy reaching Greenland. Beginning some 18,000 years ago, release of carbon from the deep ocean led to a graduate rise in atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2).

    Yet past analysis of ice cores from Greenland did not show any warming response as would be expected from an increase in CO2 and solar energy flux, the researchers note.

    In this new study, funded by the National Science Foundation and published this week in the journal Science, scientists reconstructed air temperatures by examining ratios of nitrogen isotopes in air trapped within the ice instead of isotopes in the ice itself, which had been used in past studies.

    Not only did the new analysis detect significant warming in response to increasing atmospheric CO2, it documents a warming trend at a rate closely matching what climate change models predict should have happened as the Earth shifted out of its ice age, according to lead author Christo Buizert, a postdoctoral researcher at Oregon State University and lead author on the Science article.

    “The Greenland isotope records from the ice itself suggest that temperatures 12,000 years ago during the so-called Younger Dryas period near the end of the ice age were virtually the same in Greenland as they were 18,000 years ago when much of the northern hemisphere was still covered in ice,” Buizert said. “That never made much sense because between 18,000 and 12,000 years ago atmospheric CO2 levels rose quite a bit.”

    “But when you reconstruct the temperature history using nitrogen isotope ratios as a proxy for temperature, you get a much different picture,” Buizert pointed out. “The nitrogen-based temperature record shows that by 12,000 years ago, Greenland temperatures had already warmed by about five degrees (Celsius), very close to what climate models predict should have happened, given the conditions.”

    Reconstructing temperatures by using water isotopes provides useful information about when temperatures shift but can be difficult to calibrate because of changes in the water cycle, according to Edward Brook, an Oregon State paleoclimatologist and co-author on the Science study.

    “The water isotopes are delivered in Greenland through snowfall and during an ice age, snowfall patterns change,” Brook noted. “It may be that the presence of the giant ice sheet made snow more likely to fall in the summer instead of winter, which can account for the warmer-than-expected temperatures because the snow records the temperature at the time it fell.”

    In addition to the gradual warming of five degrees (C) over a 6,000-year period beginning 18,000 years ago the study investigated two periods of abrupt warming and one period of abrupt cooling documented in the new ice cores. The researchers say their leading hypothesis is that all three episodes are tied to changes in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC), which brings warm water from the tropics into the high northern latitudes.

    The first episode caused a jump in Greenland’s air temperatures of 10-15 degrees (C) in just a few decades beginning about 14,700 years ago. An apparent shutdown of the AMOC about 12,800 years ago caused an abrupt cooling of some 5-9 degrees (C), also over a matter of decades.

    When the AMOC was reinvigorated again about 11,600 years ago, it caused a jump in temperatures of 8-, 11 degrees (C), which heralded the end of the ice age and the beginning of the climatically warm and stable Holocene period, which allowed human civilization to develop.

    “For these extremely abrupt transitions, our data show a clear fingerprint of AMOC variations, which had not yet been established in the ice core studies,” noted Buizert, who is in OSU’s College of Earth, Ocean, and Atmospheric Sciences.  “Other evidence for AMOC changes exists in the marine sediment record and our work confirms those findings.”

    In their study, the scientists examined three ice cores from Greenland and looked at the gases trapped inside the ice for changes in the isotopic ration of nitrogen, which is very sensitive to temperature change. They found that temperatures in northwest Greenland did not change nearly as much as those in southeastern Greenland – closest to the North Atlantic – clearly suggesting the influence of the AMOC.

    “The last deglaciation is a natural example of global warming and climate change,” Buizert said. “It is very important to study this period because it can help us better understand the climate system and how sensitive the surface temperature is to atmospheric CO2.”

    “The warming that we observed in Greenland at the end of the ice age had already been predicted correctly by climate models several years ago,” Buizert added. “This gives us more confidence that these models also predict future temperatures correctly.”

    About the OSU College of Earth, Ocean, and Atmospheric Sciences: CEOAS is internationally recognized for its faculty, research and facilities, including state-of-the-art computing infrastructure to support real-time ocean/atmosphere observation and prediction. The college is a leader in the study of the Earth as an integrated system, providing scientific understanding to address complex environmental challenges

  • Positive Feedbacks in a Warming Arctic

    Positive Feedbacks in a Warming Arctic

    • Published: June 29th, 2010
     84  1  0  0

    By Gretchen Weber, KQED ClimateWatch

    A thermokarst study site near Toolik Field Station
    A thermokarst study site near Toolik Field
    Station (Photo: Gretchen Weber)

    The Arctic is warming, almost twice as fast as the global average, according to a recent study. Much of the accelerated warming here is due to positive feedbacks, including one related to the loss of summer sea ice in recent decades. White surfaces, like snow and ice, reflect most of the sun’s energy and have a high albedo, while the unfrozen ocean absorbs it. This creates a feedback loop: the warmer the temperatures, the less sea ice. The less sea ice, the more heat absorbed, the higher the temperatures. (As Molly Samuel reported recently, scientists are studying albedo as it relates to California’s snowpack and water supply.)

    Another concern in a warming Arctic is thawing permafrost. Earlier this week, I was out with my polar fellow colleagues measuring the depth of the permafrost here around Toolik Lake with a metal probe and a plastic ruler. In some places we measured it to be just centimeters below a thin surface layer of plant-supporting soil called the “active layer.”

    According to Breck Bowden, a scientist from the University of Vermont who studies permafrost here at Toolik, the latest modeling shows that approximately half of the permafrost in the Arctic will thaw in the next 50 years. That’s significant not just for the Arctic ecosystems, but potentially for the entire planet. Scientists estimate that there’s one to two times as much carbon frozen in the Arctic soils as there is currently circulating in the atmosphere, said Bowden. The problem is that as the permafrost thaws, that carbon (mostly in the form of frozen organic matter), some of which has been frozen for thousands of years, will be processed by microbes in the soil and ultimately released into the atmosphere as greenhouse gases: CO2 and methane.

    “So why should someone who is living in Alabama, or Nigeria, or the Phillippines worry about what’s going on the Arctic?” said Bowden. “Well, they should worry a lot if there’s going to be a massive amount of CO2 that gets into the atmosphere and your sea level rises or your crops fail because of changes that are related to CO2 changes globally. What happens here in the Arctic is going to affect everything on the globe.”

    One indicator that the permafrost in the Arctic is already thawing is the increase in thermokarsts, which are places where the permafrost has thawed and the ground has collapsed, causing a disturbance in the landscape, and often releasing large amounts of sediment into nearby streams. Several scientists, including Bowden, study thermokarsts around Toolik Lake, and they’ve observed that the number of them is increasing.

    A group of us were in the field with Bowden yesterday as he paid a visit to one of his research sites about 20 minutes up the Dalton Highway from Toolik Field Station, and a 30-minute hike across the uneven ground that defines the tundra landscape.

    Picking our way through the tundra
    Picking our way through the tundra
    (Photo: Gretchen Weber)

    “The Arctic explorers uniformly and universally cursed walking on the tundra, and you can see why,” Bowden explained as we hiked.  “You step on it, you break your ankle. You step between it, you break your ankle. It’s very lumpy.”

    The thermokarst we hiked to was not particularly catastrophic-looking to my untrained eye.  It’s a gully that’s about 300 meters long, 20 meters wide, and about five meters deep. The collapse happened in 2003, and in the subsequent years it has widened, and vegetation has grown back along its sides, giving them a gentle, convex shape. Someone like me might have hiked down one side of this thermokarst and up the other without giving it much thought.

    Bowden was careful to point out that thermokarsts are a natural phenomenon. (They also have been known to occur when roads and houses are built in the Arctic without proper insulation.) But he also believes that the increase in thermokarsts observed in remote areas around Toolik is not natural.

    “Thermokarsts have been going on as long as there’s been an arctic landscape, and there have been more of them when it’s warmer and fewer of them when it’s colder,” he said. “But I do firmly believe that there are more of them now than there were 20 years ago, as a consequence of warming we can document in a variety of places. The question is, why is the warming occurring?”

  • Nearing a Tipping Point on Melting Permafrost?


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    Nearly a quarter of the Northern Hemisphere’s land surface is covered in permanently frozen soil, or permafrost, which is filled with carbon-rich plant debris — enough to double the amount of heat-trapping carbon in the atmosphere if the permafrost all melted and the organic matter decomposed.

    According to a paper published Thursday in Science, that melting could come sooner, and be more widespread, than experts previously believed. If global average temperature were to rise 2.5°F (1.5°C) above where it stood in pre-industrial times say earth scientist Anton Vaks of Oxford University and an international team of collaborators (and it’s already more than halfway there), permafrost across much of northern Canada and Siberia could start to weaken and decay. And since climate scientists project at least that much warming by the middle of the 21st century, global warming could begin to accelerate as a result, in what’s known as a feedback mechanism.

    Arctic permafrost seen from a helicopter.
    Credit: Brocken Inaglory via Wikimedia Commons

    How much this will affect global temperatures, which are currently projected to rise as much as 9°F by 2100, is impossible to say. It all depends on how quickly the permafrost melts, and how quickly bacteria convert the plant material into carbon dioxide and methane gas, and nobody knows the full answer to that. But since climate scientists already expect a wide range of negative consequences from rising temperatures, including higher sea level, more weather extremes and increasing risks to human health, anything that accelerates warming is a concern.

    While the rate at which melting permafrost will add carbon to the atmosphere is largely unknown, a study released February 11 in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences at least begins to tackle the problem. It shows that when the permafrost does melt, carbon dissolved in the meltwater decomposes faster after it’s been exposed to the ultraviolet component of sunlight.

    In any case, there’s no doubt that the permafrost will melt, at least in part, since it’s already starting to do so. In some parts of the Arctic, trees, buildings and roadways have started listing to one side, or even collapsing, as soil that was once hard as a rock has softened from the warming that’s already taken place.

    To get an idea of what might be in store for the future, Vaks and his colleagues searched for evidence from the distant past — specifically, from stalagmites and stalactites formed over hundreds of thousands of years in underground Siberian caves. These spiky mineral deposits, known collectively as speleothems, grow layer by layer as surface water percolates through the ground dissolving limestone as it goes, and finally forms droplets that hang from the ceiling of a cave. If the water evaporates before dropping to the floor, it leaves the limestone behind, and over the centuries those bits of limestone grow into a downward-pointing stalactite. If it drops first, then evaporates, the limestone builds up from the floor, creating a stalagmite.

    In places without permafrost, this process happens year-in and year-out. Where there’s permafrost, however, water can only drip when the permafrost melts. So Vaks and his colleagues enlisted members of the Arabica Speleological Club in Irkutsk, Russia — amateur cave explorers — to help identify likely caves in a north-south line across Siberia.

    Once they’d found the caves, they carefully removed sample speleothems, “preferably from hidden areas, so we wouldn’t spoil the caves’ natural beauty,” Vaks said. The scientists took their samples back to the lab, sliced them lengthwise, and exposed layers laid down over nearly 500,000 years. “By using uranium/thorium dating,” Vaks said, “we could find the layers’ exact ages with high precision.”

    They also found that there were long periods when the speleothems didn’t grow at all — certainly not during ice ages, when permafrost locked the soil across most of Siberia, but not even, in the northernmost caves, during warmer interglacial periods, like the one we’re in now when glaciers went into retreat. The last time these northern speleothems showed any growth, in fact, was during an unusually warm period about 400,000 years ago.

    At the time, global average temperatures were some 2.5°F warmer than they were in industrial times, or about 1.5° warmer than they are today. That sort of temperature increase by itself wouldn’t make an enormous dent in the permafrost, but the Arctic is likely to warm faster than the rest of the globe — as in fact, it has already started to do.

    As for the earlier study on carbon and ultraviolet light, environmental scientist Rose Cory, of the University of North Carolina, focused on sites in Alaska where melting permafrost has caused the soil to collapse into sinkholes or landslides. The soil exposed in this way is “baked” by sunlight, and said Cory in a press release, “(it) makes carbon better food for bacteria.”

    In fact, she said, exposed organic matter releases about 40 percent more carbon, in the form of CO2 or methane, than soil that stays buried. “What that means,” Cory said, “ is that if all that stored carbon is released, exposed to sunlight and consumed by bacteria, it could double the amount of this potent greenhouse gas going into the environment.”

    Related Content
    Permafrost Timebomb
    Melting Permafrost Will Boost Temps, But Not Quickly
    Positive Feedbacks in a Warming Arctic
    Accelerated Warming Driving Arctic Into New Volatile State

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    Comments

    By Dave (Basking Ridge, NJ 07920)
    on February 21st, 2013

    In terms of how fast all this happens, this would seem to suggest that the factors in play are not just trends in temperature increases and permafrost melt rates but also any trends that could occur in average sunlight and UV levels in those locations due to changes in cloud cover, pollution and perhaps also the local thickness of the ozone layer.

    Reply to this comment

    By Ed Leaver (Denver, CO, 80222)
    on February 21st, 2013

    In what sense are we now in an “interglacial”? Doesn’t that imply there’s going to be another glacial period for us to be sandwiched between? Just how optimistic is that?
    Greenhouse Gases Delay the Next Ice Age and < href=“http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-16439807”>Carbon emissions ‘will defer Ice Age’</a> both cite Determining the natural length of the current interglacial: “No glacial inception is projected to occur at the current atmospheric CO2 concentrations of 390 ppmv (ref. 1).”

    Reply to this comment

    By Sasparilla
    on February 22nd, 2013

    I believe the paper says 1.5c higher than industrial times (not 1.5c higher than now).  It also states that the melt appears to start at southern areas earlier, while total (far northern) permafrost melt starts at 1.5c.

    ” in one far northern cave on the boundary of continuous permafrost grew during a period 400,000 years ago when temperatures were 1.5C higher than in pre-industrial times.”

    Reply to this comment

    By Tuomo Kalliokoski (Jyväskylä/Finland)
    on February 22nd, 2013

    Build nuclear now!

    Stop dreaming about wind and solar, they are not CO2 free (check IEA CO2 highlights and CO2/energy produced for Denmark and compare it to other countries).

    Reply to this comment

    By Robert Pollard (New York, NY)
    on February 22nd, 2013

    Surely it is the temperature rise in the Arctic, and not the global average rise that will affect the permafrost melt and release of methane – and the Arctic temperatures have been rising much faster than the global average.

    Reply to this comment

    By Bob Vos (Auburn, WA 98092)
    on February 22nd, 2013

    The assumption is that it will be really bad news when the carbon-rich material trapped in the permafrost “escapes” and becomes part of the atmosphere/plant/animal organic cycle.  How did this carbon get trapped in the permafrost in the first place? It was in fact part of that cycle, when those areas were warmer, before the permafrost. So what basically will have changed from then to now?

    I do not claim to be a climate expert, but do have a Ph.D. in science/engineering, so please help me out. By the way, I also farm in my retirement, and would appreciate a few degrees warmer average temperature locally to improve the climate for my crops. I do understand that if climate change occurs there will be winners and losers.

    Reply to this comment

    By Dave (Basking Ridge, NJ 07920)
    on February 24th, 2013

    BV:

    GHG releases from melting permafrost is a natural positive feedback mechanism which is referred to here as a potential “tipping point” process. This is because as the GHG’s start to be released from the permafrost this in turn predictably leads to an increase in the rate of release due to the incremental enhanced warming potential of those GHG’s in the atmosphere. This then leads to faster melt rates, a faster rate of release and so on taking us faster and faster past a point of no return – hence a “tipping point”.  In other words it could suddenly escalate. There are indeed many solid reasons to be concerned about that as a bad thing. You seem to have just ‘tuned into’ this subject. Otherwise, with all due respect, with a PhD you would surely not be asking.

    NASA has three nice web pages explaining the carbon cycle and the difference between the fast and slow components that may be of interest: http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Features/CarbonCycle/page1.php

    Reply to this comment

    By Justin Bowles
    on March 7th, 2013

    Michael: I’ve just been exchanging e-mails with Anton Vaks, the lead author of this paper.

    Sasparilla is correct. The paper says 1.5c higher than pre-industrial times (not 1.5c higher than now).

    Vaks told me that there was some ambiguity in the Oxford University press release, which has given rise to this misunderstanding, and this has now been corrected.

    Accordingly, I think you need to add the correction to the post. 1.5c from pre-industrial is very different from 1.5c now; in short, it makes the problem even more urgent.

    Reply to this comment

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  • The Good and Bad Climate News from Permafrost Melt

    The Good and Bad Climate News from Permafrost Melt

    • Published: September 12th, 2014
     244  116  107  3

    Earth’s subterranean carbon blisters are starting to pop.

    Carbon inside now-melting permafrost is oozing out, leaving scientists scrambling to figure out just how much of it is ending up in the atmosphere. Whether recent findings from research that attempted to help answer this question are good or bad climate news might depend on whether you see an Arctic river basin as half full of mud — or half empty.

    Coastal permafrost eroding in Alaska.
    Credit: USGS

    Frozen soils known as permafrosts can be found across the planet, and they’re concentrated heavily in the Arctic, which has been warming since the 1980s at twice the global rate. Taken together, permafrosts contain more carbon than is already in the atmosphere. Their warming-induced breakdown is helping to fill the atmosphere with greenhouse gases. In a self-feeding cycle, that’s fueling the very climatic changes that are causing permafrost to waste away.

    “What everyone’s really concerned about is how all this permafrost carbon is going to decompose,” said aquatic geochemist Rose Cory, an assistant professor at the University of Michigan. “If all of that gets turned into carbon dioxide, then we’ll more than double the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere.”

    A team of U.S. scientists led by Cory studied Arctic waterways and found that nearly half of the carbon that’s eroding from melting Arctic permafrost is flowing through rivers and lakes and ending up in the seas. Eventually, that sea-bound carbon is likely to be gobbled into aquatic food chains or to settle on ocean floors. The rest is being oxidized in waterways into carbon dioxide, floating into the skies instead of out to sea.

    (Addtionally, soil microbes can oxidize carbon into carbon dioxide before the soil tumbles into water, and climate-changing methane can escape from thawing permafrost.)

    RELATED Arctic Methane Emissions ‘Certain to Trigger Warming’
    Nearing a Tipping Point on Melting Permafrost?
    Mountain Forest Changes Threaten Calif. Water Supplies

    The team took measurements and water samples at 135 lakes and 73 rivers around the Kuparuk River basin in Alaska’s North Slope during the summers of 2011, 2012, and 2013. The researchers wanted to know how much floating soil carbon was being oxidized into carbon dioxide by bacteria, how much was being oxidized through the effects of sunlight, and how much of the carbon was escaping both of these natural processes — and remaining in the water.

    The good news from their analysis, the results of which were published last month in Science: About 45 percent of the soil carbon that’s eroding from permafrost and muddying Arctic waters was found to be remaining in the waterways.

    The bad news? Looked at from another perspective, 55 percent of it is being oxidized into climate-changing carbon dioxide. The vast majority of that is caused by the effects of sunrays, which break apart chemical bonds that hold carbon molecules together, setting in motion reactions that can produce CO2.

    The study was the first of its kind, and Cory said she hadn’t known what to expect. Some people who expected less carbon oxidation in the Arctic waterways “might be discouraged” by the findings, she said. But not her.

    “Some have speculated that all the permafrost soil carbon would be rapidly released to the atmosphere as carbon dioxide once it flushed into rivers and lakes,” Cory said. “I think it’s encouraging that not all of this carbon that’s coming out of the soil gets turned into carbon dioxide. It’s producing this stuff that’s going to get washed from permafrost, which is one freezer, into the Arctic Ocean, which you can think of as another freezer.”

    Arctic permafrost seen from a helicopter.
    Credit: Brocken Inaglory via Wikimedia Commons

    The worrying news, no matter how you dice the de-icing permafrost findings? “There’s so much carbon stored in northern permafrost soils that even if, say, 10 percent of that carbon is released through the processes we studied, it would still have a big impact,” Cory said. She calculated that “conservative” scenario would raise atmospheric carbon dioxide levels by 75 to 80 parts per million — over and above the effects of continued fossil fuel burning and other causes. And that, she said, would lead to “a lot of warming.” 

    The research revealed the important role of sunlight in turning watery Arctic carbon into carbon dioxide, and the findings might be relevant for shallow rivers and lakes that drain permafrost soil elsewhere. “Our findings may be relevant in lots of freshwaters outside the Arctic,” Cory said. And that’s information that could help scientists improve their climate modeling and projections.

    Compared with the role of bacteria, which can devour carbon and belch out carbon dioxide, Cory and her team found that sunlight produced three to 19 times more of the carbon dioxide that bubbles out of the Arctic rivers and lakes — depending on the site being studied. A Swedish research team published research earlier this year in the journal Global Biogeochemical Cycles that found sunlight was responsible for just 10 percent of the production of carbon dioxide from carbon in lower-altitude lakes; bacteria was blamed for the rest.

    Uppsala University’s Birgit Koehler, one of the authors of the Swedish paper, said the two sets of findings are not contradictory. Arctic waterways are shallower than those in many other parts of the world, meaning sunlight can reach through a greater proportion of the water column. And cold conditions slow down microbes.

    “A rather cold temperature and shallow water depth in their study area, both limiting microbial activity, may be a reason why sunlight played a larger role in these waters than in other areas of the world, and why microorganisms were less important,” Koehler said.

    Now, Cory says she is running experiments aimed at determining how oxidation rates could change as the Arctic heats up further.

    “As the Arctic continues to warm, and the permafrost thaw gets deeper, what happens then is you’re bringing out a different kind of carbon,” she said. “It has a different chemical signature.”

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  • FactCheck: does Australia have too much electricity?

    Australia
    10 September 2014, 2.44pm AEST

    We have 9,000 megawatts (nine big power stations equivalent) of excess capacity in electricity generation … We have more than 15% overcapacity in generation in Australia – Industry minister Ian Macfarlane…

    Australia does have the capacity to produce more electricity than it needs – but that’s not a reason to scale back the Renewable Energy Target. Indigo Skies Photography/Flickr, CC BY-NC-SA

    We have 9,000 megawatts (nine big power stations equivalent) of excess capacity in electricity generation … We have more than 15% overcapacity in generation in Australia – Industry minister Ian Macfarlane, ABC Radio, September 9.

    Capacity and supply

    In electricity markets, “capacity” is used to describe the total potential technical capacity (in megawatts) of a system. The total capacity in the National Electricity Market (NEM) is approximately 50,000 megawatts. “Energy” is often used to describe the output, or the electricity that is actually delivered.

    The National Electricity Market is an “energy-only” market — capacity isn’t traded. We consider these markets in balance when there is 15% more capacity than the expected peak demand for electricity. The NEM has been in a state of structural over-supply for some time now — currently close to 30% over expected peak demand.

    A key aim of the Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) is to “promote efficient investment in and operation of Australia’s electricity and gas markets”.

    As part of this AEMO, prepares an “Electricity Statement of Opportunities”, that highlights generation and demand-side investment opportunities. In the latest update, rather than investment opportunities, Australian Energy Market Operator reported on the surplus capacity throughout the National Electricity Market:

    “There is potentially between 7,650 megawatts and 8,950 megawatts of surplus capacity across the National Electricity Market in 2014–15. Approximately 90% of this is in New South Wales, Queensland, and Victoria.”

    The operator modelled three economic scenarios — high, medium and low growth. For the first time in the history of the National Electricity Market, the modelling shows that no new capacity is required over the next ten years. The figure below illustrates that this surplus capacity may increase or decrease, depending on the scenario.

    Range of surplus capacity forecasts in the National Electricity Market over the next 10 years. AEMO
    Click to enlarge

    Enter the RET

    This is a point echoed by the latest Renewable Energy Target review from a panel led by businessman Dick Warburton. The current levels of oversupply are used to argue for no new investment in renewable energy:

    In a market environment where capacity is already oversupplied and demand may continue to decline it is quite reasonable (and efficient) for no new investment in capacity to occur.

    This may be true. However this argument confuses the role of the RET with the role of the National Electricity Market. As the Panel’s report points out, the “NEM was designed to correct [oversupply in the market]”. The objectives of the RET, on the other hand are to:

    • encourage the additional generation of electricity
    • to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases
    • to ensure that renewable energy sources are sustainable.

    Given that they are the objectives of the legislation, these represent a useful measuring stick to evaluate its performance against. The legislation itself actually provides guidance on the review process, including:

    the Climate Change Authority must conduct reviews of the following: (a) the operation of this Act and the scheme constituted by this Act …

    Minister Macfarlane also claimed that the government was “simply keeping to the legislation” in reviewing the target.

    But as we’ve seen the supply-demand balance of the market does not feature in the RET’s remit. And nor should it — that is after all the purpose of the NEM.

    Indeed if the RET was left untouched, an efficient market should correct the supply-demand imbalance on its own, via the least profitable generation withdrawing from the market. And in this process, consumers may benefit from lower electricity prices.

    Arguing that oversupply justifies no new investment is just one side of the equation. An equally reasonable argument might be that the RET is functioning fine, delivering on its objectives and left be, the NEM will re-correct the supply imbalance, just a different way. Whether or not you think this is “efficient” outcome likely depends on whether or not you think climate change is real.

    Minister Macfarlane has also claimed that the RET “no longer aligns with the percentage target”.

    But in the RET legislation there is no mention of even a 20% target (“real” or otherwise). Instead there is a 41,000 gigawatt hour target for 2020. This was originally estimated to represent approximately 20% of electricity generation in 2020. The original policy commitment was actually for “the equivalent of at least 20 per cent of Australia’s electricity generation comes from renewable resources by 2020”.

    Indeed there is no mention in the legislation of (a hand picked) Department of Prime Minister and Cabinet review, for that matter: it says reviews are to be conducted by the Climate Change Authority. Since the Government has been unsuccessful in dissolving the Climate Change Authority, and assuming the Climate Change Authority fulfils its legislative requirements, perhaps we may see another review by the end of the year.

    Verdict

    The Minister’s statement is factually correct. According to Australian Energy Market Operator, there is between 7.5-9 gigawatts of surplus capacity (though the capacity overhang is greater than 15%). However it is a non sequitur to use this to justify radical reform of the Renewable Energy Target.


    Review

    There is certainly widespread agreement that there is a substantial amount of excess generation capacity in the National Electricity Market for at least the next decade, as both Mr Macfarlane and the Fact Checker state.

    The Fact Checker is also correct to state that the RET legislation is silent about changing the RET in such a situation, and that the RET operates as a completely separate mechanism from the electricity market: for example, certificates are accounted for over each year, while the electricity market “balances” electricity supply and demand many times each day.

    The Fact Checker is also correct that to propose that investment in new renewable energy generation should be halted to solve a problem in the electricity market is a non sequitur. The Fact Checker’s position can be supported in several ways.

    First, if government applied a similar approach in other areas where emerging competitors create excess capacity in an existing industry, our economy would stagnate.

    For example, when the gas industry took market share from electricity, it did not have to consider its impacts on the electricity industry. Similarly, the developers of mobile phone networks did not have to limit their expansion due to excess Telstra landline capacity. Building a freeway can create excess capacity in competing public transport services. And so on.

    Second, the electricity regulators and the industry itself could adopt a wide range of options to address the excess capacity problem, for example, by simply allowing the industry to “shake out”. At present we are seeing exactly this in the mining industry, where high cost producers are struggling because demand for iron ore and coal has fallen short of expectations.

    The National Electricity Market Objective calls for the market to operate in the “long term interests of consumers”, not the profits of the existing industry. The capacity excess and the RET are both driving lower prices, while the RET is encouraging the installation of the kind of generation capacity we need in a low carbon future, which is clearly in the long term interests of electricity consumers.

    Third, government could influence which generator closures occur, for example by setting tough environmental standards that would discourage dirty power stations, which are often older, and the value of which should have been substantially depreciated over their past lives.

    The Fact Checker is correct to draw attention to the illogical use of the existence of excess electricity generation capacity to attempt to justify cutting the Renewable Energy Target, and the fact that the RET legislation specifies a 2020 target of 41,000 GWh, not “20% of electricity”. Given the strong community support for renewable energy, only the incumbent electricity industry could see the RET’s “over-achievement” as being a bad thing. – Alan Pears

    Have you ever seen a “fact” that doesn’t look quite right? The Conversation’s FactCheck asks academic experts to test claims and see how true they really are. We then ask a second academic to review an anonymous copy of the article.

    You can request a check at checkit@theconversation.edu.au. Please include the statement you would like us to check, the date it was made, and a link if possible.