Author: Neville

  • Uncertainty no excuse for procrastinating on climate change

    27 May 2013, 6.24am EST

    Uncertainty no excuse for procrastinating on climate change

    Today we released research which reduces the range of uncertainty in future global warming. It does not alter the fact we will never be certain about how, exactly, the climate will change. We always have to make decisions when there are uncertainties about the future: whether to take an umbrella when…

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    We’ll never know how much the globe will warm, but we have a pretty good idea: what are we waiting for? Luis Ramirez

    Today we released research which reduces the range of uncertainty in future global warming. It does not alter the fact we will never be certain about how, exactly, the climate will change.

    We always have to make decisions when there are uncertainties about the future: whether to take an umbrella when we go outside, how much to spend on insurance. International action on climate change is just one more decision that has to be made in an environment of uncertainty.

    The most recent assessment of climate change made by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change in 2007 looked at what is known with high confidence about climate change, as well as uncertainties. It included projections of future global warming to the end of this century based on simulations from a group of complex climate models.

    These models included a range of uncertainties, coming from natural variability of the climate and the representation of important processes in the models. But the models did not consider uncertainty from interactions with the carbon cycle – the way carbon is absorbed and released by oceans, plant life and soil. In order to allow for these uncertainties, the likely range of temperature change was expanded.

    Our recent study has re-visited these results and tested an approach to reduce the range of uncertainty for future global warming. We wanted to calibrate the key climate and carbon cycle parameters in a simple climate model using historical data as a basis for future projections. We used observations of atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations for the last 50 years to constrain the representation of the carbon cycle in the model. We also took the more common approach of using global atmospheric and ocean temperature variations to constrain the response of the climate system.

    This led to a narrower range of projected temperature changes for a given set of greenhouse gas emissions. As a consequence, we have higher confidence in the projections. In other words, using both climate and carbon dioxide observations reduces the uncertainties in projections of global warming.

    Figure 1. Global-mean temperature change for a business-as-usual emission scenario, relative to pre-industrial. Black line: median, shaded regions 67% (dark), 90% (medium) and 95% (light) confidence intervals. The sidebars are uncertainty ranges based on the IPCC likely range and best estimate (grey column) for 2090-2099 and our corresponding results (purple column) from the simple climate model (MAGICC); the black bars are the respective best estimates (modified from Nature Climate Change paper). Bodman & Karoly
    Click to enlarge

    We found that uncertainties in the carbon cycle are the second-largest contributor to the overall range of uncertainty in future global warming. The main contributor is climate sensitivity, a measure of how the climate responds to increases in greenhouse-gas concentrations.

    Climate sensitivity has been discussed recently on The Conversation. A recent study by Alexander Otto of Oxford University and colleagues, published in the journal Nature Geoscience, also considered future global warming in the context of observations of global mean temperature change over the last decade.

    Unlike that study, our results do not show lower climate sensitivity or lower mean projected global warming. Our study uses the same observed global atmospheric and ocean temperature data. But we also used observed carbon dioxide data and represented important additional processes in our simplified climate model, particularly the carbon cycle on the land and in the ocean and uncertainties in the climate forcing due to aerosols.

    In our study, the reductions in uncertainty came from using the observations, the relationships between them and how these affect the parameters in the simple climate model. We found 63% of the uncertainty in projected warming was due to single sources, such as climate sensitivity, the carbon cycle components and the cooling effect of aerosols, while 37% of uncertainty came from the combination of these sources.

    Once we reduced the uncertainty we found there is an increased risk of exceeding a lower temperature change threshold, but a reduced chance of exceeding a high threshold. That is, for business-as-usual emissions of greenhouse gases, exceeding 6°C global warming by 2100 is now unlikely, while exceeding 2°C is virtually certain.

    These results reconfirm the need for urgent and substantial reductions in greenhouse gas emissions if the world is to avoid exceeding the global warming target of 2°C. Keeping warming below 2°C is necessary to minimise dangerous climate change.

    It is unlikely that uncertainties in projected warming will be reduced substantially. Indeed, if you allow for population growth, levels of economic activity, growth in demand for energy and the means of producing that energy, overall uncertainty increases. We just have to accept that we will have to manage the risks of global warming with the knowledge we have. We may not know exactly how much and by when average temperatures change, but we know they will. This is an experiment we probably don’t want to make with the only planet we have to live on.

  • Stop the whale slaughter (AVAAZ)

    Dear friends,

    In days, two Icelandic ships will leave on a bloody hunt for endangered fin whales and export them to Japan — if we shine a spotlight right now on the role of a Dutch transit port, we can get them to shut down this safe harbour for slaughter and create a major stumbling block for the the bloody trade. Sign now:

    In days, two Icelandic ships will set sail to butcher 154 endangered fin whales. Trading these majestic creatures is illegal in most of the world, but the Dutch are turning a blind eye and allowing the meat to be trafficked through the port of Rotterdam! Let’s hold Dutch leaders to account and close this safe harbour for unconscionable whaling.

    Despite a global commercial whaling ban, Icelandic tycoon Kristjan Loftsson will shoot harpoons to blow out the brains of these majestic creatures, then chop them into pieces and ship their meat to Japan. But we can break a crucial link between the ocean and the customers — the port of Rotterdam, where these massive carcasses are expected to be transferred. If the environmentally conscious Dutch see that the damage to their reputation isn’t worth the profits of trading with this aging Icelandic whaler, they’ll stop the transit and send the whalers back to the drawing board.

    We have just over a week before the whalers start the bloody hunt — let’s make sure Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte refuses safe harbour for the whalers and their bloody cargo. Sign the petition now and send this to everyone who loves whales! When we reach one million signers, we’ll create a massive stunt of fake beached whales on the Rotterdam waterfront that they won’t be able to turn a blind eye to.

    http://www.avaaz.org/en/stop_the_whale_hunt/?bBYMjdb&v=25142

    Fin whales are magical creatures. They’re the second longest animal in the world (more than 8-stories tall!) and move through the water like lightning. Their incredible combination of sleek, elegant power and speed earned them the nickname “greyhound of the sea”. Just one fin whale can weigh up to 70,000 kgs! And they’re endangered — only about 118,000 are thought to be left in the wild, and annual hunts are threatening their survival.

    Hunting fin whales is illegal under the Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species and the International Whaling Commission, which has helped fin whales come back from the brink of extinction. But not everyone follows the rules. Loftsson has run the only industrial fin whale hunt in recent years, has brazenly sold the meat to Japan and profited from the whaling ban other countries follow.

    Stopping the transit in Rotterdam, Europe’s biggest port, would set a precedent that would make it very difficult for Loftsson to ship his meat profitably through any port in Europe. Hamburg and Finish ports have already shunned the whale trade, and stopping it in Rotterdam could be the final step. A massive public outcry globally and in the Netherlands can help tip the balance — sign now and say no to the slaughter of endangered whales:

    http://www.avaaz.org/en/stop_the_whale_hunt/?bBYMjdb&v=25142

    Avaaz members have achieved tremendous things working together, from opposing the ivory trade to winning a ban on pesticides that were killing record numbers of bees. In 2010, Avaaz members were central to keeping the international moratorium on commercial whaling in tact — let’s stop this horrific hunt now and keep marching toward a more humane world.

    With hope,

    Oliver, Pascal, Alaphia, Emily, Alice, David, Ricken and the Avaaz team

    PS- Many Avaaz campaigns are started by members of our community. It’s easy to get started – click to start yours now and win on any issue – local, national or global: http://www.avaaz.org/en/petition/start_a_petition/?bgMYedb&v=23917

    MORE INFORMATION

    Iceland to resume disputed fin whale hunt in June (Yahoo News)
    http://uk.news.yahoo.com/iceland-resume-disputed-fin-whale-hunt-june-152645167.html#mbpipwP

    Ceaseless Pressure on Whales (NYT)
    http://www.nytimes.com/2013/05/11/opinion/ceaseless-pressure-on-whales.html?emc=eta1&_r=1&

    Iceland readying for fin whale hunt (The Daily Telegraph)
    http://www.news.com.au/world-news/iceland-readying-for-fin-whale-hunt/story-fndir2ev-1226635346527

    For Iceland’s whale king it’s “just another fish” (AFP)
    http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5h0e9RgyRi4AF-PqyF7nLp4ufPW1w

    Iceland’s creation of an endangered species trade (Whale and Dolphin Conservation Society)
    http://www.wdcs-de.org/docs/WDCS_EIA_Iceland_Whaling_report.pdf

    Support the Avaaz Community!
    We’re entirely funded by donations and receive no money from governments or corporations. Our dedicated team ensures even the smallest contributions go a long way. Donate to Avaaz


    Avaaz.org is a 21-million-person global campaign network
    that works to ensure that the views and values of the world’s people shape global decision-making. (“Avaaz” means “voice” or “song” in many languages.) Avaaz members live in every nation of the world; our team is spread across 18 countries on 6 continents and operates in 17 languages. Learn about some of Avaaz’s biggest campaigns here, or follow us on Facebook or Twitter.

    You are getting this message because you signed “Join Avaaz!” on 2012-06-22 using the email address ngarthurslea@yahoo.com.au.
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    To contact Avaaz, please do not reply to this email. Instead, write to us at www.avaaz.org/en/contact or call us at +1-888-922-8229 (US).

  • Shifty mantle may skew sea level estimates

    Shifty mantle may skew sea level estimates

    The same mantle processes that drive plate tectonics also deform elevations of ancient shorelines, says Jerry Mitrovica, professor of geophysics at Harvard University. “You can’t ignore this, or your estimate of the size of the ancient ice sheets will be wrong.” (Credit: Pericomart/Flickr)

    SYRACUSE U. / U. CHICAGO (US) — Changes in a prehistoric shoreline stretching from Virginia to Florida suggest that estimates of past sea levels could be off base.

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    Creative Commons LicenseThe text of this article by Futurity is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-No Derivatives License.

    Resting, in some parts, more than 280 feet above modern sea level, this shoreline was carved by waves more than 3 million years ago—possible evidence of a once higher sea level, triggered by ice-sheet melting.
    (Credit:
    But new findings by a team of researchers, including Robert Moucha, assistant professor of Earth Sciences at Syracuse University, reveal that the shoreline has been uplifted by more than 210 feet, meaning less ice melted than expected.


    The East Coast shoreline, also known as the Orangeburg Scarp, as it may have appeared 3 million years ago. (Credit: Syracuse U.)

    Straight from the Source

    Read the original study

    Equally compelling is the fact that the shoreline is not flat, as it should be, but is distorted, reflecting the pushing motion of the Earth’s mantle.

    This is big news, says Moucha, for scientists who use the coastline to predict future sea-level rise. It’s also a cautionary tale for those who rely almost exclusively on cycles of glacial advance and retreat to study sea-level changes.

    “Three million years ago, the average global temperature was two to three degrees Celsius higher, while the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere was comparable to that of today,” says Moucha, who contributed to a paper on the subject in Science Express.

    “If we can estimate the height of the sea from 3 million years ago, we can then relate it to the amount of ice sheets that melted. This period also serves as a window into what we may expect in the future.”

    Less melting

    Moucha and his colleagues—led by David Rowley, professor of geophysical sciences at the University of Chicago—have been using computer modeling to pinpoint exactly what melted during this interglacial period, some 3 million years ago.

    So far, evidence is stacked in favor of Greenland, West Antarctica, and the sprawling East Antarctica ice sheet, but the new shoreline uplift implies that East Antarctica may have melted some or not at all. “It’s less than previous estimates had implied,” says Rowley, the article’s lead author.

    Moucha’s findings show that the jagged shoreline may have been caused by the interplay between the Earth’s surface and its mantle—a process known as dynamic topography.

    Advanced modeling suggests that the shoreline, referred to as the Orangeburg Scarp, may have shifted as much as 196 feet. Modeling also accounts for other effects, such as the buildup of offshore sediments and glacial retreats.

    “Dynamic topography is a very important contributor to Earth’s surface evolution,” says Rowley. “With this work, we can demonstrate that even small-scale features, long considered outside the realm of mantle influence, are reflective of mantle contributions.”

    Nothing’s stable

    Moucha’s involvement with the project grew out of a series of papers he published as a postdoctoral fellow at the Canadian Institute for Advance Research in Montreal. In one paper from 2008, he drew on elements of the North American East Coast and African West Coast to build a case against the existence of stable continental platforms.

    “The North American East Coast has always been thought of as a passive margin,” says Moucha, referring to large areas usually bereft of tectonic activity. “[With Rowley], we’ve challenged the traditional view of passive margins by showing that through observations and numerical simulations, they are subject to long-term deformation, in response to mantle flow.”

    Central to Moucha’s argument is the fact that viscous mantle flows everywhere, all the time. As a result, it’s nearly impossible to find what he calls “stable reference points” on the Earth’s surface to accurately measure global sea-level rise. “If one incorrectly assumed that a particular margin is a stable reference frame when, in actuality, it has subsided, his or her assumption would lead to a sea-level rise and, ultimately, to an increase in ice-sheet melt,” says Moucha.

    Another consideration is the size of the ice sheet. Between periods of glacial activity (such as the one from 3 million years ago and the one we are in now), ice sheets are generally smaller.

    Jerry Mitrovica, professor of geophysics at Harvard University who also contributed to the paper, says the same mantle processes that drive plate tectonics also deform elevations of ancient shorelines. “You can’t ignore this, or your estimate of the size of the ancient ice sheets will be wrong,” he says.

    Moucha puts it this way: “Because ice sheets have mass and mass results in gravitational attraction, the sea level actually falls near the melting ice sheet and rises when it’s further away. This variability has enabled us to unravel which ice sheet contributed to sea-level rise and how much of [the sheet] melted.”

    Appalachian ‘wear and tear’

    The geophysicist credits much of the group’s success to state-of-the-art seismic tomography, a geological imaging technique led by Nathan Simmons at California’s Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory. “Nathan, who co-authored the paper, provided me with seismic tomography data, from which I used high-performance computing to model mantle flow,” says Moucha. “A few million years may have taken us a day to render, but a billion years may have taken several weeks or more.”

    Moucha and his colleagues hope to apply their East Coast model to the Appalachian Mountains, which are also considered a type of passive geology. Although they have been tectonically quiet for more than 200 million years, the Appalachians are beginning to show signs of wear and tear: rugged peaks, steep slopes, landslides, and waterfalls—possible evidence of erosion, triggered by dynamic topography.

    “Scientists such as Rob, who produce increasingly accurate models of dynamic topography for the past, are going to be at the front line of this important research area,” says Mitrovica.

    Adds Rowley: “Rob Moucha has demonstrated that dynamic topography is a very important contributor to Earth’s surface evolution. … His study of mantle contributions is appealing on a large number of fronts that I, among others of our collaboration, hope to pursue.”

    Source: Syracuse University

    (Viewed 275 times)

  • Almost 100% New Electricity To Be From Solar In California In 2nd Half Of 2013

    Almost 100% New Electricity To Be From Solar In California In 2nd Half Of 2013

    Posted: 25 May 2013 08:04 AM PDT

    Reposting this big news from Solar Love:

    Herman Trabish of Greentech Media has happened across a pretty interesting find — 97% of new electricity generation capacity in line to be added to the California grid in the second half (2H) of 2012 is from solar power projects.

    This is according to the California Independent System Operator (the ISO), as published in the 2012 Annual Report on Market Issues and Performance. In total, 1,633 megawatts of generation capacity are in line to be added to the grid in 2H 2013. A whopping 1,581 megawatts (MW) are from solar projects. 52 MW are from biomass projects.

    That’s a big shift from the first half of the year (and, well, all of previous history). Herman writes: “By the end of the first half of the year, the ISO will have added 3,391 megawatts of nameplate capacity, of which 2,296 megawatts will be natural gas, 565 megawatts will be wind and 530 megawatts will be solar.” Here’s a chart for a visual display of these points and the situation in 2012:

    Image Credit: California ISO

    Image Credit: California ISO

    Herman spent a lot of time discussing various factors related to natural gas in his post (I’d recommend checking it out). A few key points I’d pull out of it are as follows (images added):

    new natural gas california

    estimated revenue natural gas

    natural gas california

    1. Natural gas prices seem to have gotten too low to warrant investment in new natural gas projects. From the report: “The 2012 net revenue estimates for hypothetical combined-cycle and combustion-turbine units continued to fall substantially below the estimates of the annualized fixed costs for these technologies. For a new combined-cycle unit, net operating revenues earned from the markets in 2012 are estimated to be about $38 per kilowatt-year in Southern California, compared to potential annualized fixed costs of $176 per kilowatt-year.” (See 3 charts above.)
    2. More periods like 2H 2013 to come — this is the future. V. John White, executive director of the Center for Energy Efficiency and Renewable Technologies (CEERT), stated: “This is the shape of things to come.” Naturally, with solar hitting grid parity in parts of California, and combined with renewable energy targets, solar is set to keep growing at a fast clip.
    3. Clearly, there needs to be a little more balance than in 2H 2013. Technically, that could be achieved with a broad mix of renewables, demand response solutions, energy efficiency, energy storage, and/or natural gas technologies of the right kind. “What we want is a diverse renewables portfolio that includes solar PV, wind, geothermal and CSP with storage,” White said. “As time goes on, we need to smooth this out and include demand response, energy efficiency, storage, and even out-of-state resources.”
    4. Old natural gas technology not a good fit. Older/conventional natural gas plants take about 90 minutes to ramp up, which is not a good match for renewables. Furthermore, to warrant their cost, they have to run at 40% capacity, but they can’t compete with renewables on a merit order system. And as solar cuts off peak demand and cuts into peak pricing, the situation will get even more difficult.

    I think the overall trend is pretty clear. Solar power is growing fast, and it will continue growing at a strong pace. Beyond that, the specifics of California’s future grid are not entirely clear.

    Solar still needs a lot of support to reach its potential, especially rooftop solar. And making sure that what fills in around solar as it grows is also clean and renewable is a complementary challenge on which we need to put a strong focus.

    The whole California ISO report looks like it’s worth a read, but at 231 pages, it could take several hours (or even days) to go through it all. For now, here are a handful of interesting charts and graphs I’ve pulled out of it:

    utility demand response programs california

    demand response programs by hourdemand response programs by monthcalifornia electricity generation

    california electricity sources

    renewable energy generation california

    renewable energy split california

    hydropower california

    Thoughts?

    Almost 100% New Electricity To Be From Solar In California In 2nd Half Of 2013 was originally posted on: PlanetSave. To read more from Planetsave, join thousands of others and subscribe to our free RSS feed, follow us on Facebook (also free), follow us on Twitter, or just visit our homepage.

    Bicycling Cat — MJ (VIDEOS)

    Posted: 25 May 2013 04:07 AM PDT

    Here’s some weekend fun for you, reposted from bike-loving site Bikocity:

    As you’ll see in the videos below, MJ the cat is now a famous Philadelphia cat thanks to his bike courier owner Rudi Saldia. Rudi gave the 1-year-old cat a ride up and down the street, which MJ seemed to like. So they went further and further. Being his only time outside (plus, you know, the wonders of biking), MJ apparently loves the rides. In some of the clips in the videos below, you can see MJ nuzzle up to Rudi and lick him repeatedly… presumably as a big thanks.

    Rudi, who says he first filmed the rides in order to prove to his mom that the cat really rode the bike with him, has gotten a bit out of it as well. Aside from over 1 million views on YouTube, he (and MJ) landed in a TV commercial for GoPro cameras, the company from which Rudi got the helmet cam that films all the magic.

    Anyway, enough rambling, here are four videos from Rudi, one from the Associated Press, and one from GoPro cameras:

     

     

     

     

     

     

    Bicycling Cat — MJ (VIDEOS) was originally posted on: PlanetSave. To read more from Planetsave, join thousands of others and subscribe to our free RSS feed, follow us on Facebook (also free), follow us on Twitter, or just visit our homepage.

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  • From the Antarctic Ocean Alliance Team:

    Dear INGA,

    Thank you for Joining The Watch and showing your support for protecting Antarctica’s marine environment. Thanks to you our campaign to save Antarctica’s waters has momentum with over 190,000 global citizens joining you in becoming part of The Watch  – but we need to do more.

    The body that regulates Antarctica’s waters, the Commission for the Conservation of Antarctic Marine Living Resources (CCAMLR), has a crucial meeting coming up in July in Germany. This is our chance to send them a strong message they can’t ignore, that we support the protection of these unique and vital marine environments.

    We need as many people as possible to support Antarctic marine protection and to send that message to CCAMLR, we need 300,000 signatures by July.

    Thanks to you, we already have over 190,000

    Can you help us reach our goal?

    Antarctic waters make up almost 10% of the world’s seas and are some of the most pristine left on earth. They are home to almost 10,000 unique and diverse species including penguins, Weddell seals, albatross and Antarctic toothfish. But unlike Antarctica’s land these waters are not protected.

    Together we can change this.

    Please forward this email to five friends who you think will care about this issue, ask them to Join The Watch with you and help us ensure these waters are protected as a legacy for future generations.

    With your support we can save this precious and truly unique part of the world.

    Thank you again INGA for being part of The Watch to protect the Antarctica’s ocean.

    From the Antarctic Ocean Alliance Team: Steve, Blair, Grigory, Geoff, Donna, Ricardo, Amanda, Cary and Emily

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  • Sir David warns against growth

    Sir David warns against growth

    Date
    May 26, 2013
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    In conversation with Sir David Attenborough

    Sir David Attenborough shares his thoughts on Australia, population growth and the state of the natural world ahead of his national tour in June.

    Video will begin in 1 seconds.

    One of the world’s leading naturalists, Sir David Attenborough, has cautioned Australia against pursuing further population growth, labelling an unlimited expansion a kind of madness.

    Speaking to Fairfax Media ahead of a national tour of Australia in June, Attenborough questioned why the country still debated whether it needed to grow its population.

    ”Why would you want to do that? I don’t understand that,” he said ”The notion that you could continue to expand and increase and grow in an infinite way on a planet which is finite, is a kind of lunacy. You can see how mad that is by the expression that you can’t believe that you can grow infinitely in a finite place – unless of course you’re an economist.”

    Illustration: Matt Golding.Illustration: Matt Golding.

    The Australian Bureau of Statistics estimates Australia’s population will grow to between 30.9 million and 42.5 million people by 2056.

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    The first Sustainable Australia report released earlier this month said the nation’s population was growing at 1.7 per cent, one of the fastest in the developed world, but still well behind the more than four per cent growth rates of many African nations. The report lists environmental degradation as one of the bigger challenges facing development of regional parts of the country.

    In 2009, former prime minister Kevin Rudd sparked a national debate about population growth when he stated his belief in a ”big Australia”.

    Sir David Attenborough.Sir David Attenborough. Photo: Corbis

    Since then the government’s stance on population growth has cooled significantly, with Prime Minister Julia Gillard rejecting that notion and calling instead for sustainable growth.

    In 2011, federal Environment Minister Tony Burke released a population strategy that was criticised for not setting a population target, instead focussing on a more nuanced approach to growth in regions needing skilled workers.

    ”If we are to adapt to change and build sustainable communities, we need to integrate environmental, social and economic factors to provide current and future generations with the opportunity to lead healthy and fulfilling lives,” Mr Burke said.

    Attenborough said his tour next month was to discuss highlights of his six decades of nature filmmaking, not to speak out on environmental issues. But he felt his global audience did place responsibilities on him.

    ”I’m not on a proselytising tour. On occasions I speak on these issues where it’s appropriate and where the subject has come up,” he said.

    Attenborough said while he did not believe bureaucrats and governments should meddle in a family’s right to have children, had China not introduced its one-child policy in 1979 the consequences for the planet would have been catastrophic.

    ”One thing you can say is that in places where women are in charge of their bodies, where they have the vote, where they are allowed to dictate what they do and what they want, whether it’s proper medical facilities for birth control, the birth rate falls,” he said.

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/environment/sir-david-warns-against-growth-20130525-2n3z7.html#ixzz2UMapqDk7