Author: Neville

  • Origins of Human Culture Linked to Rapid Climate Change

    Origins of Human Culture Linked to Rapid Climate Change

    May 21, 2013 — Rapid climate change during the Middle Stone Age, between 80,000 and 40,000 years ago, during the Middle Stone Age, sparked surges in cultural innovation in early modern human populations, according to new research.


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    The research, published this month in Nature Communications, was conducted by a team of scientists from Cardiff University’s School of Earth and Ocean Sciences, the Natural History Museum in London and the University of Barcelona.

    The scientists studied a marine sediment core off the coast of South Africa and reconstructed terrestrial climate variability over the last 100,000 years.

    Dr Martin Ziegler, Cardiff University School of Earth and Ocean Sciences, said: “We found that South Africa experienced rapid climate transitions toward wetter conditions at times when the Northern Hemisphere experienced extremely cold conditions.”

    These large Northern Hemisphere cooling events have previously been linked to a change in the Atlantic Ocean circulation that led to a reduced transport of warm water to the high latitudes in the North. In response to this Northern Hemisphere cooling, large parts of the sub-Saharan Africa experienced very dry conditions.

    “Our new data however, contrasts with sub-Saharan Africa and demonstrates that the South African climate responded in the opposite direction, with increasing rainfall, that can be associated with a globally occurring southward shift of the tropical monsoon belt.”

    Linking climate change with human evolution

    Professor Ian Hall, Cardiff University School of Earth and Ocean Sciences, said: “When the timing of these rapidly occurring wet pulses was compared with the archaeological datasets, we found remarkable coincidences.

    “The occurrence of several major Middle Stone Age industries fell tightly together with the onset of periods with increased rainfall.”

    “Similarly, the disappearance of the industries appears to coincide with the transition to drier climatic conditions.”

    Professor Chris Stringer of London’s Natural History Museum commented, “The correspondence between climatic ameliorations and cultural innovations supports the view that population growth fuelled cultural changes, through increased human interactions.”

    The South African archaeological record is so important because it shows some of the oldest evidence for modern behavior in early humans. This includes the use of symbols, which has been linked to the development of complex language, and personal adornments made of seashells.

    “The quality of the southern African data allowed us to make these correlations between climate and behavioural change, but it will require comparable data from other areas before we can say whether this region was uniquely important in the development of modern human culture” added Professor Stringer.

    The new study presents the most convincing evidence so far that abrupt climate change was instrumental in this development.

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  • Coral reef spread ‘ruled’ by volcanoes

    Coral reef spread ‘ruled’ by volcanoes

    Wednesday, 22 May 2013 Stuart Gary
    ABC


    Titanic forces in Earth's crust explain why the richness of corals varies across the vast expanse of oceans (Dean Jacobson )

    Titanic forces in Earth’s crust explain why the richness of corals varies across the vast expanse of oceans (Dean Jacobson )

    Volcanoes rule coral The Earth’s ever-shifting geology is affecting the diversity of coral reefs across the Indian and Pacific oceans, a new study shows.

    The research, reported in the Proceedings of the Royal Society found reefs and islands created by plate tectonics and volcanic hotspots, generate patterns of coral biodiversity.

    The findings explain why the richness of coral varieties tapers off the further one travels from a biodiversity hot spot known as the coral triangle, says paper co-author Professor Sean Connolly of the Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies.

    It also has implications for corals under climate change as it shows they arise from geological processes that take place over millions of years and therefore will be harder to replace if lost due to global warming.

    Coral species found in the triangle, an area north of Australia bounded by the Philippines, Indonesia and West Papua, also populate reefs across the Indian and Pacific oceans, from Africa to Hawaii.

    However until now, the reasons why coral biodiversity decreases with distance from the triangle, despite similar environments and temperatures, had eluded researchers.

    “It’s been quite difficult to try to tease apart … [these] different driving factors,” says Connolly.

    Previous studies examined how species diversity changed as one moves further away from the coral triangle, so instead, Connolly and colleagues looked at which coral species colonised different reefs.

    “We wanted to know exactly where species were dropping out and which species were dropping out,” says Connolly.

    The authors developed a database of coral species distribution, combining previous surveys of different reef populations with new fieldwork.

    Emerging pattern

    They found species further away from the coral triangle, were still subsets of those in the triangle, with only a few new outside species joining in.

    More importantly, they discovered that groups of species would fail to colonise a reef, rather than just a single species dropping out on one reef, and another on the next reef.

    Connolly and colleagues then discovered the drop-offs occurred on reefs located on tectonic plate boundaries and mantle plume tracks.

    These are regions where Earth’s crustal plates collide with or slide past each other, and where hot magma from deep mantle plumes push through the crust, building volcanoes that grow and eventually die as the plates they are on, move away from the plume.

    The reefs and volcanic island chains generated by these events over millions of years, act as stepping stones for coral colonisation. Species with more specialised habitat requirements are unable to keep going to expand their range and drop-off.

    The depth at which corals can survive and the range of water turbidity are suspected to be key factors, according to Connolly.

    “We also found corals which tended to belong to older genera or lineages, such as hermaphrodites, tended to be more likely to have broader distributions,” says Connolly.

    “This is deeper than species in the family tree … you’re talking about millions of years.”

    Climate change

    The discovery also has serious implications for coral reefs in the face of climate change.

    “Climate change is leading to the loss of corals throughout the tropics,” says Connolly.

    “This study has shown the diversity of corals we see today is the result of geological processes that occur over millions, even tens of millions, of years.

    “If we lose these coral-rich environments the recovery of this biodiversity will take a very long time, so our results highlight just how critical it is to conserve the coral reefs that exist today.”

    Tags: marine-biology, geology

  • Climate disasters displace millions of people worldwide

    Climate disasters displace millions of people worldwide

    More than 32 million people fled their homes last year because of disasters such as floods, storms and earthquakes – 98% of displacement related to climate change. Asia and west and central Africa bore the brunt. Some 1.3 million people were displaced in rich countries, with the US particularly affected. Floods in India and Nigeria accounted for 41% of displacement, according to the International Displacement Monitoring Centre and Norwegian Refugee Council
    Floods, cyclones … business and governments must wake up to disaster
    Worst natural disasters of 2012 by numbers displaced – in pictures

    MDG : Disaster-induced dispacement worldwide in 2012View larger picture

    Disaster-induced displacement worldwide in 2012 from the International Displacement Monitoring Centre and Norwegian Refugee Council
    Photographer: iDMC/NRC
  • Hate the Increases in Storms and Heat? Take Methane Down to 1250 Now!

    Hate the Increases in Storms and Heat? Take Methane Down to 1250 Now!

    Posted: 05/21/2013 3:19 pm

     

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    Today I introduce you to 1250now.org. Now, no one should be surprised that we’re passing 400 parts per million carbon dioxide. The surprising part is that we’re getting pretty far along without any real agreements to deal with the problem. And, for many people, more surprising still will be this: In our worsening position, as the early effects of warming begin to be felt, and are already becoming critical around the planet’s polar regions, there must be both a long-term strategy and, now, a separate near-term one — and this near-term strategy can have almost nothing to do with carbon dioxide.

    For the long-term strategy, 400ppm carbon dioxide is the midpoint between two views of the future — the conventional “450 future,” which was assumed to correspond to a 2 degrees Celsius rise above pre-industrial temperature, hopefully forming a guardrail against ‘dangerous interference’ with the climate, and a “350 future,” corresponding to a rise of about 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial, first espoused by climate scientist James Hansen, then popularized by Bill McKibben and his 350.org, and since embraced by more and more major figures in science and politics. Recent research and climate events suggest Hansen’s 350 was correct, and the 450 view was mistaken, but right now we aren’t headed toward either, and, given the current fossil fuel bonanza, might even find ourselves surpassing not 450 but 500ppm in a few decades if something isn’t done. This is a monumental struggle, and must be fought tooth, nail, blood, guts, whatever it takes.

    It will take cool heads to prevail in a heating world, however, and one quick path to disaster could be that, too caught up in the intensity of this struggle, we ignore the necessity of the near-term strategy as well. So I would like to introduce you to 1250, a new group I’ve been involved in forming. It has recently come online at 1250now.org, and has launched a petition you can sign and circulate. 1250 does not deal with the long-term stabilization of carbon dioxide, and is focused on the need to act quickly on non-carbon dioxide factors to help near-term climate, making it complementary to 350.org’s long-term carbon dioxide focus. 1250 stands for 1250 parts per billion methane, a practical interim methane target, but the group is also concerned with other things such as black carbon emissions, and an Arctic-wide preservation program involving direct environmental restoration projects must also now be part of it. The 350 goal for carbon dioxide will be difficult to achieve this century (unless geoengineering is used), but there is a good chance that 1250ppb methane could be reached, with a global-scale effort, in less than three decades. One important international study has shown that reductions of methane and black carbon together can cut projected warming between now and 2050 in half.

    Peter Wadhams, a leading Arctic sea ice scientist who is part of 1250, projects that summer sea ice is likely to drop to near zero coverage within just a few years. Reductions in carbon dioxide emissions, absolutely essential to ensure long-term climate stability, act too slowly to moderate warming over the next few decades. So if we are going to address this Arctic crisis, or the superstorms, droughts, floods, tornadoes and crop failures of next year, of five years from now, of a decade from now, or even of twenty or thirty years from now, our only tools for doing so are 1) reductions of these short-lived factors, and 2) climate engineering. It is hard to swallow, and both counterintuitive and disconcerting to contemplate, that all the hoped-for renewable energy from solar and wind, and all the closures of those dirty coal plants, so vital to the future of society, will make little difference until we are almost gone or have passed, yet a set of rather humdrum-sounding cuts of methane, black carbon, HFCs, and even a non-greenhouse gas like carbon monoxide, could, taken together, have substantial and rapid impacts on warming for the remainder of our lives.

    We might only have a few years left to decide if we really want to pursue 1250, however: to give a rough idea of this, while current natural Arctic methane emissions are highly uncertain, if we leave the Arctic to melt, and the summer sea ice indeed plummets in the next few years, leading to chronic methane releases reaching the atmosphere there increasing, let’s say, three or fourfold, then assuming high-end current release estimates, the best we could do through anthropogenic methane cuts from that point on would likely be just to tread water, holding methane steady, barely lowering its abundance at all! Thus the window on making this 1250 approach highly effective might be rapidly closing, and after this, little else will be left to secure near-term climate except geoengineering. Environmental groups opposed to geoengineering should be buzzing about 1250’s prescriptions like bees around honeysuckle.

    Just as Hansen started the 350 movement, 1250’s approach comes from him as well — Hansen originally called it his “alternative scenario” for 21st century warming, and it has recently been updated in the work of Drew Shindell and others, embodied with at least the framework of an institution to enact it, initiated by Hillary Clinton. What we really need right now is to reconfigure Hansen’s alternative scenario into far less time — far less, even, than the updated Shindell version. In order to achieve this, we will likely need to restructure the economic fundamentals of what Clinton and others like Robert Watson (former Chair of the IPCC) have started. That won’t happen without much more public awareness and pressure.

    I saw Hansen last September, on the very day that the lowest recorded sea ice extent was announced. He told me that he really wanted to get back to talking about his “alternative scenario,” but just needed to feel sure that something would get done about carbon dioxide. Until Hansen gets the chance to start talking about it again, you can in the meantime help him, and the 1250 goal, by signing and circulating this petition.

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  • The fish we need to feed 9 Bn people

    By Andreas Merkl, President, Ocean Conservancy

    Smart fisheries management is a great place to start a conversation about putting the ocean at the center of the world’s biggest challenges.  This is because the most profitable type of fishing is sustainable fishing – better management helps fishermen and the ocean at the same time.

    Sustainable fishing means keeping enough fish in the water to reproduce and ensure a bountiful catch in the future. It’s a balancing act, but sustainable fisheries are in everyone’s best interest – from fishermen to distributors to gear manufacturers to retailers to consumers. If you’re a fisherman and you want to pass on your traditions to the next generation, or you want to be able to make good money 10 years from now, the most profitable way to fish is sustainably.

    Unfortunately, overfishing due to poor fisheries management remains a global problem that threatens ecosystem health and human survival. For example, without enough forage fish—small fish like anchovies, sardines, and squid—the larger predators, like tuna, that feed on them will start to disappear as well.

    That matters because we are facing a future with 9 billion people on the planet, and with that future comes huge concerns for food security.  There is no way we can sustainably provide protein to that many people without fixing fisheries management around the world.

    The benefits of good fisheries management go beyond food security.  It turns out that many fisheries produce protein much more efficiently than land – after all, fish do not have to fight gravity.  Cows, chickens, and pigs are terribly inefficient protein sources, and their production generates more greenhouse gases than all the cars, trains, and airplanes in the world.  So if recovering fisheries can take some of the protein production pressure off the land, that could have major implications for climate change, ocean acidification, and pollution.

    The good news is that we’ve seen a real shift in the state of fishing in the world.  The United States is a shining example of this work, thanks to the success of the Magnuson-Stevens Fishery Conservation and Management Act, which governs marine fisheries management and has helped us turn the corner on ending overfishing and recover a record number of depleted fish populations over the past two years. Ocean Conservancy and Pew Charitable Trusts have just released a joint report about the successes fishermen are seeing thanks to these management policies.

    According to a recent fisheries report from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the catch by American fishermen has reached a 14-year high—and the evidence can be seen in the recovery of signature species like red snapper in the Gulf of Mexico and lingcod on the Pacific Coast.

    Beyond U.S. waters, more work needs to be done. Internationally managed open-ocean fisheries need to adopt and implement proven fishery management  strategies. Developing countries need to embrace modern management techniques to avoid depleting their fish populations; it simply makes economic sense.  We now have the analytical tools to apply these techniques at relatively low costs; for example, we can rely on advanced statistical techniques to get a better sense of the health of current stocks, and we can use standardized approaches to plan for their recovery.

    To be successful, we need to think beyond the one fish we are trying to catch today, and instead focus on finding smart ways to sustain fish up and down the food chain, and the people who will depend on them for their lives and livelihoods.

     

  • Plague of deforestation sweeps across south-east Asia

    Plague of deforestation sweeps across south-east Asia

    Illegal logging and unchecked economic development are taking a devastating toll on forests

    Myanmar deforestation : Burmese workers at logging camp Mandalay, Myanmar.

    Along the Ayeyarwady river Burmese workers push huge teak logs onto trucks in Mandalay, Myanmar. Photograph: Paula Bronstein/Getty Images

    In 1968, during the six-month siege of Khe Sanh — one of the most bitterly fought battles of the Vietnam War — a special U.S. Air Force outfit flew defoliation missions. Called the Ranch Handers, their motto was: “Only you can prevent a forest.”

    They may not have succeeded in their goal, but rapid development in Vietnam and the surrounding nations of the greater Mekong region is on the way to accomplishing what American defoliation missions could not: The widespread destruction of Indochina’s forests and the biodiversity they harbor.

    Stand on Khe Sanh today, and it’s remarkably tranquil. Nearly all the metal from the old Marine base has been scavenged and sold to scrap merchants. The battlefield is now part of a vast green coffee plantation; all that remains of the airstrip that was the lifeline for U.S. Marines and Army soldiers is a length of reddish dirt.

    The fate of the forests around Khe Sanh exemplifies what is happening today in Vietnam and the greater Mekong region, which also includes Thailand, Laos, Cambodia, and Myanmar. Although some large blocks of forest remain intact, the pace of deforestation is dizzying, threatening the region’s remarkable biodiversity, which includes more than 1,700 species discovered in the last 15 years alone. Many of the forests in Vietnam have been cut down for the furniture export market and the trees replaced by coffee bushes; in less than 10 years, Vietnam has gone from zero to number two in global coffee production. So much forest has been cleared to feed the growing number of sawmills that loggers have moved across the borders into neighboring Laos and Cambodia, where they are illegally razing forests there.

    In addition to widespread, illegal logging, other factors driving this precipitous forest loss include the spread of agriculture in a region with soaring population growth and the construction of dams and other large-scale infrastructure projects.

    The scope of the forest loss was highlighted earlier this month by the conservation group WWF, which noted that from 1973, near the end of the Vietnam War, to 2009, the greater Mekong region lost nearly one-third of its remaining forest cover. Vietnam and Thailand suffered the most forest destruction, each losing 43 percent of their forest cover, according to an analysis of satellite imagery by WWF.

    WWF concluded that areas of core, undisturbed forest — defined as at least 3.2 square kilometers of pristine woodlands — plunged over the past four decades in Indochina from more than 70 percent to 20 percent. I witnessed this destruction first-hand as I traveled around Vietnam for several months, researching a book on its biodiversity. While hiking near the mountain village of Sa Pa, near the Chinese border, I saw mile-long red clay scars on the sides of the green, tree-covered mountains – the highest in Vietnam. The land was being clear-cut for a controversial new dam, displacing many of the local Dao tribespeople in the process.

    In another part of the country, a few hours from Hanoi in the Red River delta, a wildlife biologist and I could see the remnants of famous limestone-rich hills that had been pulverized to feed a nearby cement factory. The factory was located close to the Van Long nature reserve, home to one of the last bands of wild, leaf-eating monkeys known as “Delacour’s langurs.”

    Scientists and conservationists working in Vietnam and surrounding nations say the region now stands at a crossroads. It can allow present rates of deforestation to continue, in which case, WWF says, by 2030 “only 14 percent of the greater Mekong’s remaining forests will consist of contiguous habitat capable of sustaining viable populations of many wildlife species.” Or Vietnam and its neighbors can take advantage of the natural bounty that remains — forests still cover roughly 50 percent of the region’s land area — and choose a more sustainable path that will support reasonable economic development and preserve biodiversity.

    The remaining forests in Vietnam are home to what was virtually a “lost world” containing wildlife unknown to the outside — so much biodiversity that for the past 15 years an average of two new species per week have been discovered by scientists. Some of these creatures are spectacular, including the Javan rhino, barking deer, fishing cat, ferret-badger, finless porpoise, Irrawaddy dolphin, giant Mekong catfish, and a creature called the saola, which looks like a goat but is genetically closer to an ox.

    One University of Hanoi biologist, Vo Quy, eminence grise of Indochina conservation, is convinced that many other creatures are still waiting to be found. “Local people are always finding things that we scientists don’t know about,” he said to me.

    But things are changing swiftly in Vietnam, which — at 127,240 square miles — is only a little smaller than Germany. In Vo Quy’s words, when it comes to protecting the region’s wildlife, “the peace is more dangerous than war.”

    With the country opening up to the outside world under an economic restructuring in the mid-1990s, Vietnam’s economy has been growing by an average of 7 percent a year for the past decade. Like many countries in the region, Vietnam has a young and rapidly growing population, which has expanded by nearly one-third since 1979, reaching nearly 90 million today. (In the region around Cuc Phuong National Park, Vietnam’s first national park and home to many conservation efforts, the average family has 6.7 children.)

    As wildlife biologist Alan Rabinowitz, chief executive officer of the conservation organization, Panthera, described the country’s rapid development: “Vietnam is a miniature China on amphetamines.”

    The inner workings of this rapid growth are not pretty, especially if one looks into the furniture export trade, one of the country’s top five export earners and a major cause of the deforestation. (The United States is by far Vietnam’s biggest furniture market, almost three times larger than the next largest, Japan. Imports from Asia now make up 70 percent of the American furniture market, a 4,000-percent increase in less than ten years.)

    Vietnam has even weaker unions and lower wages than China, along with fewer labor laws, heavier subsidies to state-sponsored industries, and bigger tax breaks to favored companies. Consequently, furniture manufacturers in China are already moving their operations from industrial cities near Hong Kong to Vietnam.

    While the mills are in Vietnam, about 80 percent of the wood itself comes from neighboring Laos and Cambodia. Much of the timber is cut in protected reserves in those countries — where laws are weak and enforcement is minimal — and illegally smuggled across the border to Vietnam in spite of export restrictions, according to an undercover investigation by the London-based Environmental Investigation Agency (EIA).

    In a 2008 exposé, the EIA documented the timber industry’s severe deforestation of the greater Mekong region.

    The organization’s field investigators made secret films during undercover visits to furniture factories and found that “criminal networks have now shifted their attention to looting the vanishing forests of Laos.”

    But because the furniture export trade is worth more $2.4 billion annually to Vietnam alone, authorities turn a blind eye, according to the EIA. Corruption, large and small, has accompanied boom times.

    One wildlife biologist, Tilo Nadler, director of the Endangered Primate Rescue Center in Cuc Phuong, witnessed long lines of trucks loaded with tropical hardwood at the Cambodian border, on their way to factories near Da Nang and Ho Chi Minh City. Nadler said that even in his area, far from the border, local attitudes toward protection were so bad that a mob had attacked a ranger station three years ago after the rangers had arrested some illegal loggers. Rangers earn little money and have low status, he said.

    The impacts of this wholesale devastation are substantial in one of the world’s biodiversity hotspots. As the WWF report rightly notes, there have been enormous declines in the range and numbers of several of the region’s iconic species, including the tiger, Asian elephant, Irrawaddy dolphin, and saola. Where once there were thousands of saola, now there are hundreds. The population of Asian elephants has dropped from hundreds to dozens. Rangers used to sight tigers roaming Cuc Phuong — which has been cut in two by a highway — but no more. And in 2011, the Javan rhinoceros was confirmed as extinct in Vietnam.

    According to Nadler, biologist Vo Quy, WWF, and other experts, time still remains to reverse the runaway deforestation and habitat loss of recent decades and begin better preserving the greater Mekong region’s forests and biodiversity. “I’m an optimist, but only if we have real government support to protect our special places,” Nadler said. He cited the need to make difficult decisions, which may mean that biologists have to give up resisting a dam such as the one at Sa Pa, in order to save threatened wild lands elsewhere.

    WWF said governments in the region need to do a far better job of safeguarding the parks and reserves that already exist since “many protected areas exist in name only.” The group also stressed that unless regional government begin to rein in illegal logging and uncontrolled development, “natural forest habitats, along with their resident wildlife, face virtual elimination outside of protected areas.”

    Although the Vietnamese government has heralded its reforestation efforts, the fact is that they largely consist of monoculture tree plantations that harbor limited biodiversity, scientists say.

    A key factor is local community involvement. The Van Long park, for example, was created as a result of local initiatives. Villagers living next to Van Long take a sense of pride in the reserve and have an economic stake in an ecotourism resort being built there.

    In Southeast Asia, any long-term, sustainable, conservation projects require popular support; without that, formal edicts or restrictions on timber cutting from the central government mean nothing.

    As a popular saying goes in Vietnam: “The decrees of the emperor end at the village gate.”