Author: Neville

A Model Predicts That the World’s Populations Will Stop Growing in 2050

Apr. 4, 2013 — Global population data spanning the years from 1900 to 2010 have enabled a research team from the Autonomous University of Madrid to predict that the number of people on Earth will stabilise around the middle of the century. The results, obtained with a model used by physicists, coincide with the UN’s downward forecasts.

——————————————————————————–

Share This:

44

Related Ads:
•Fertility
•Population Data
•Water System
•Science Project

See Also:

Health & Medicine
•Today’s Healthcare
•Fertility

Earth & Climate
•Earth Science
•Earthquakes

Science & Society
•Environmental Policies
•Social Issues

Reference
•Consensus of scientists regarding global warming
•Numerical weather prediction
•Fertility
•New Madrid Seismic Zone

According to United Nations’ estimates, the world population in 2100 will be within a range between 15.8 billion people according to the highest estimates -high fertility variant- and 6.2 billion according to the lowest — low fertility variant-, a figure that stands below the current 7 billion.

A mathematical model developed by a team from the Autonomous University of Madrid (UAM) and the CEU-San Pablo University, both from Spain, seems to confirm the lower estimate, in addition to a standstill and even a slight drop in the number of people on Earth by the mid-21st century.

The population prospects between 1950 and 2100 provided by the UN were used to conduct the study, published in the journal ‘Simulation’. Mathematical equations which are used in scientific fields, such as condensed matter physics, were then applied to this data.

“This is a model that describes the evolution of a two-level system in which there is a probability of passing from one level to another,” as explained by Félix F. Muñoz, UAM researcher and co-author of the project.

The team considered Earth as a closed and finite system where the migration of people within the system has no impact and where the fundamental principle of the conservation of mass -biomass in this case- and energy is fulfilled.

“Within this general principle, the variables that limit the upper and lower zone of the system’s two levels are the birth and mortality rates,” Muñoz pointed out and recalled the change that occurred in the ratio between the two variables throughout the last century.

“We started with a general situation where both the birth rate and mortality rate were high, with slow growth favouring the former,” he added, “but the mortality rate fell sharply in the second half of the 20th century as a result of advances in healthcare and increased life expectancy and it seemed that the population would grow a lot. However, the past three decades have also seen a steep drop-off in the number of children being born worldwide.”

The model’s S-shaped sigmoid curve reflects this situation with an inflection point in the mid-1980s when the speed at which the population is growing starts to slow down until it stabilises around 2050.

The data also reflect the downward trend in the UN’s series of prospects. “Overpopulation was a spectre in the 1960s and 70s but historically the UN’s low fertility variant forecasts have been fulfilled,” Muñoz highlighted.

As recently as 1992 it was predicted that there would be 7.17 billion people on Earth by 2010 instead of the actual 6.8 billion. In fact, the fertility rate has fallen by more than 40% since 1950.

“This work is another aspect to be taken into consideration in the debate, although we do not deal with the significant economic, demographic and political consequences that the stabilisation and aging of the world population could entail,” the researcher concluded.

Share this story on Facebook, Twitter, and Google:

Sea level rise report delayed

Posted 10 hours 37 minutes ago

Map data ©2013 Google – Terms of Use

Map

Map: Port Fairy 3284
The release of a landmark report into rising sea levels at Port Fairy has been delayed.

The Moyne Shire has been investigating the impacts of sea level rise and storms along the coastline of Port Fairy, including at East and South Beach.

The director of sustainable development, Oliver Moles, says the study has been held up because of illness and technical issues.

He says the report will come out in about six weeks and will shed light on how homes and public assets may be affected.

“We understand that within government and beyond, everyone’s watching the Port Fairy work as the lead bit of research about seal level rise and about how a community will deal with that,” he said.

“So we’re really pleased to be part of that project.

“Residents will be wanting to know how public and private property may be affected and what are the measures for adaptation or protection of that property in the longer term, when it’s likely to occur … whether it’s going to occur in fact.”

Topics: oceans-and-reefs, climate-change, environmental-management, local-government, port-fairy-3284, ballarat-3350

More stories from Victoria

Search ABC News

Featured Video

VideoWayne Swan and Bill Shorten After weeks of speculation the Government has set out its reform agenda for superannuation.

VideoNuclear threat continues Hackers infiltrate North Korea’s Twitter and Flickr feeds, posting unflattering images of Kim Jong-un.

VideoUK father gets life for house fire British man who deliberately lit a house fire that killed six of his children has been sentenced to life in prison.

VideoWelfare groups warn brothel shutdown must be managed carefully The Mayor of Surabaya wants the region’s brothels shut down by 2014.

Subscribe to ABC NewsMail

Join us on Facebook

Follow us on Twitter

Got a news tip?

Turnbull says Coalition’s NBN policy ‘imminent’

Updated 25 minutes ago
Malcolm Turnbull at Queensland Media Club Photo: Malcolm Turnbull says the release of the Coalition’s broadband policy is imminent. (AAP: Dave Hunt, file photo)
Related Story: Turnbull accuses NBN Co of playing politics
Related Story: NBN rollout could face 10 year delay: expert
Map: Australia

Federal Opposition communications spokesman Malcolm Turnbull says there will be no surprises in the Coalition’s broadband policy which is set to be released “imminently”.

Speaking in Tasmania, Mr Turnbull declared the Coalition will complete the National Broadband Network but with a different mix of technologies which he has already outlined.

“Don’t hold your breath because I’m told it’s bad for your health, but if you hold it you would not have to for very long,” he said regarding the policy’s release date.

“We’re not releasing it today but the full detail, a lot of financial information, will be in the policy that will be released imminently.

“I don’t think there will be any surprises in it frankly.

“We will complete the construction of the NBN we’re not going to tear it up or cancel it or do any of those things Julia Gillard says we will.

“Our approach is to complete it and to complete it sooner, cheaper and accordingly more affordably for all Australians.”
The ABC’s Nick Ross compares the NBN to the Coalition’s alternative

The Coalition has indicated it wants to use a mix of technologies to complete the NBN, with a focus on fibre to the node, rather than the Government’s fibre to the premises.

The Coalition’s plan would mean fibre cables would run to neighbourhood boxes, with the remaining connection to homes to use the existing copper network.

A fibre-to-the-node network would result in slower internet speeds than the Government’s NBN, due to factors such as copper line quality and proximity to the neighbourhood node.

Mr Turnbull says the Coalition’s approach will save money and allow the network to be completed sooner.

Topics: internet-technology, federal-government, business-economics-and-finance, australia

First posted 29 minutes ago
Search ABC News
National Broadband Network
ABC Technology & Games

Facebook wants into your Home via your handset
The best time to be a gamer: Now
Want to manage BYOD? There’s an app for that

Featured Video

Video Wayne Swan and Bill Shorten After weeks of speculation the Government has set out its reform agenda for superannuation.
Video Nuclear threat continues Hackers infiltrate North Korea’s Twitter and Flickr feeds, posting unflattering images of Kim Jong-un.
Video UK father gets life for house fire British man who deliberately lit a house fire that killed six of his children has been sentenced to life in prison.
Video Welfare groups warn brothel shutdown must be managed carefully The Mayor of Surabaya wants the region’s brothels shut down by 2014.

Subscribe to ABC NewsMail
Join us on Facebook
Follow us on Twitter
Got a news tip?

If you have inside knowledge of a topic in the news, contact the ABC.

Dr. James Hansen Retires From 46-Year Career At NASA’a Goddard Institute Of Space Studies

April 4, 2013 Cynthia Shahan

Print Friendly

4 6 2 14 14 Share

Dr. James E. Hansen has announced his retirement as head of NASA’s Goddard Institute of Space Studies, where he began his career in 1967. He plans to engage more actively in politics around the issue of climate change, continuing his work as the most educated pioneer of scientific climate change research.

Dr. Hansen, now 72 years old, began testifying in congress regarding climate challenges the planet is facing (determined through his research and that of his colleagues) in 1988. Bill McKibben equates him as the patron saint of 350.org. “It was Jim’s 2008 paper that gave us our name, identifying 350 parts per million CO2 as the safe upper limit for carbon in the atmosphere.”

photo credit: UNclimatechange (some rights reserved)
Image Credit: UNclimatechange (some rights reserved)

“As much as for his science, we respect him for his courage.” Thoughtful Fearless Integration of Science, NASA (Government), and Activism

Some people just become stronger as they age. It is as if wisdom transforms into their work and being, as if experience unfolds and multiples their inner strength. Bill McKibben continues: “He’s always been willing to speak the truth bluntly, from the day in 1988 when he told Congress that the time had come ‘to stop waffling so much and say the planet was warming,’ to all he has done to bring attention to damaging projects like Keystone XL – even to the point of risking arrest to do so. I have no doubt he will go on doing science, and speaking plainly — indeed, he told the New York Times that one reason he is leaving the federal payroll is so he can take on the government more directly.”

“Again and again, Dr. Hansen made predictions that were ahead of the rest of the scientific community …”

Hansen thoughtfully used his unique ability to straddle and integrate his daily work (science), governmental duty, and activism, becoming the best-known public figure of federally sponsored climate research. He stood up intelligently to pressure from the White House.

“From that perch, seven floors above the diner made famous by ‘Seinfeld,’ Dr. Hansen battled the White House, testified dozens of times in Congress, commanded some of the world’s most powerful computers and pleaded with ordinary citizens to grasp the basics of a complex science.”

He is directly honest. In 2005, he shared with the public the pressure he felt by the Bush administration’s effort to control and suppress information to the public from him.

Some people feel that inherent intuitive ability to tap into a quantum stream of consciousness or body of knowledge that is hovering in the multidimensional planes of life. Einstein had this ability. Hansen has it. As noted in Justin Gilllis’ article in the New York Times that broke the story of Hansen’s retirement, “Again and again, Dr. Hansen made predictions that were ahead of the rest of the scientific community and, arguably, a bit ahead of the evidence. Hansen’s colleagues value him, ‘Jim has a real track record of being right before you can actually prove he is right with statistics,’ said Raymond T. Pierrehumbert, a planetary scientist at the University of Chicago.”

Image Credit: laurigorham some rights reserved
Image Credit: laurigorham some rights reserved

Hansen’s Future

His focus only becomes more streamlined and he sheds light on his decision, “‘As a government employee, you cannot testify against the government,’ he said in an interview.” Now, he will be able to.

He echoes Mark Kitchell, director of Fierce Green Fire, or Kitchell echoed him as Kitchell introduced his film nationwide not long ago:

“Dr. Hansen says he senses the beginnings of a mass movement on climate change, led by young people. Once he finishes his final papers as a NASA employee, he intends to give it his full support.”

“At my age,” he said, “I am not worried about having an arrest record.” This is, in fact, a part of his experience as well as the intention. He was arrested for the first time in 2009 as part of a coal protest. He was cited again for sleeping overnight in a tent on the Boston Common with others, largely students pressuring Massachusetts into passing climate legislation.

Along with his increased time with activism, he will continue his scientific work. “Initially, Dr. Hansen plans to work out of a converted barn on his farm in Pennsylvania. He has not ruled out setting up a small institute or taking an academic appointment.”

“At the same time, retirement will allow Dr. Hansen to press his cause in court. He plans to take a more active role in lawsuits challenging the federal and state governments over their failure to limit emissions, for instance, as well as in fighting the development in Canada of a particularly dirty form of oil extracted from tar sands.”

Thank You, Dr. Hansen!

Read more at http://planetsave.com/2013/04/04/james-e-hansen-retires-from-nasa-46-year-career-this-week-continuing-his-work-as-the-most-educated-leader-of/#YGJZ0Lr3XcP7011w.99

Super changes to hit rich retirees

DateApril 5, 2013 – 10:01AM 970 reading now

Read later

Daniel Hurst and Jonathan Swan

Zoom in on this story. Explore all there is to know.
Treasury
Australia
.

inShare.
Pin It
submit to reddit
Email article
Print
Reprints & permissions

.

Super changes: Wayne Swan and Bill Shorten.
Super changes: Wayne Swan and Bill Shorten. Photo: Alex Ellinghausen

Australians with more than $2 million in superannuation will lose tax concessions under changes to the system announced on Friday by Treasurer Wayne Swan.

Treasury estimates that about 16,000 people will be affected by this measure in 2014-15, which represents about 0.4 per cent of Australia’s projected 4.1 million retirees in that year.

For superannuation assets earning a rate of return of 5 per cent, this reform will only affect individuals with more than $2 million in superannuation assets supporting income streams.

This reform will save about $900 million over the forward estimates period.

Advertisement

Under current arrangements, all earnings on assets supporting income streams (superannuation pensions and annuities) are tax-free, in contrast to earnings in the accumulation phase of superannuation, which are taxed at 15 per cent.

However, Mr Swan announced that from July 1, 2014, future earnings (such as dividends and interest) on assets supporting income streams will be tax free only up to $100,000 a year. Earnings above $100,000 will be taxed at the same concessional rate of 15 per cent that applies to earnings in the accumulation phase.

The government has been under pressure to detail any changes to superannuation planned for the May budget, with ongoing speculation that it would increase taxes for high earners.

Mr Swan said there was a disproportionate level of government support that flowed to a select few.

”There is something wrong in the system where working Australians on average wages are providing excessive support to people with millions in their superannuation account,” he told reporters.

”Why should someone who has millions of dollars in a superannuation account pay no tax on their earnings while someone on $80,000 a year pays a marginal tax rate of 37 cents in the dollar on every additional dollar they earn?”

Mr Swan said the changes addressed that imbalance.

Superannuation Minister Bill Shorten said the government was acutely aware that many people approaching retirement were keen to boost retirement savings beyond the mandatory contribution.

For people aged over 60, concessional caps will be increased from $25,000 to $35,000 from July 1. That concession would be extended to those aged 50 and over from July 1, 2014.

There will be further changes to the handling of lost super accounts. Last year, the federal government announced lost super accounts up to the value of $2000 would be transferred to the Australian Taxation Office, to protect them from being eroded by fees.

The balances would also earn interest equivalent to the consumer price index once they are reclaimed. The balance threshold will be increased to $2500 from December 31, 2015 and $3000 at the end of 2016.

”This means that rather than shrinking, people who are temporarily disconnected from their super, will have it grow by the time that it’s found,” Mr Shorten told reporters.

A 20-year-old with $3000 in an inactive superannuation account will be able to claim about $3400 from the ATO after five years.

More to come

Follow the National Times on Twitter

Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/political-news/super-changes-to-hit-rich-retirees-20130405-2haim.html#ixzz2PXVItDCc

North Korea announces plans to restart nuclear complex

UN secretary general says country has ‘gone too far’ as it reveals plans to revive Yongbyon reactor
Share 114

inShare.6
Email

Justin McCurry in Seoul and agencies

guardian.co.uk, Tuesday 2 April 2013 15.41 BST

North Korea nuclear reactor
North Korea’s Yongbyon nuclear reactor pictured in 2008. Photograph: Kyodo/Reuters

North Korea has said it plans to restart its main atomic complex, a move that could bolster its nuclear arsenal and add to tensions in the region.

The regime said on Tuesday that it would restart all facilities at its main Yongbyon nuclear complex to ease its electricity shortage and strengthen its nuclear capability.

The reactor was shut down in 2007 as part of international nuclear disarmament talks that have since stalled.

The move came a day after Pyongyang announced a “new strategic line” focusing on its nuclear programme and economy.

Responding to the growing crisis, the UN secretary general, Ban Ki-moon, said on Tuesday he feared North Korea was on a collision course with the rest of the world that could lead to war. Ban, a former South Korean foreign minister, said the current crisis had “gone too far” and called for dialogue to ease tensions on the peninsula.

“Nuclear threats are not a game. Aggressive rhetoric and military posturing only result in counter-actions, and fuel fear and instability,” he said during a visit to Andorra. “Things must calm down as this situation, made worse by the lack of communication, could lead down a path that nobody should want to follow.

“I am convinced that nobody intends to attack [North Korea] … however, I am afraid that others will respond firmly to any direct military provocation.”

China, the North’s only major ally and aid provider, described the possible nuclear restart as “regrettable”, while Japan said it was a cause for “grave concern”.

The Yongbyon announcement comes amid rising tensions prompted by repeated warnings from the North that it is on a war footing with South Korea. The regime has also threatened nuclear strikes against the US mainland and its overseas military bases, although experts are convinced it is still several years away from developing the necessary technology.

After weeks of verbal provocations North Korea’s leader, Kim Jong-un, appeared to lower the diplomatic temperature over the weekend, saying the state’s nuclear arsenal was strictly a deterrent. Days earlier he had been photographed seated in front of a map showing US targets for an envisioned nuclear strike.

“Our nuclear strength is a reliable war deterrent and a guarantee to protect our sovereignty,” Kim said in comments made on Sunday but released in full by the official KCNA news agency on Tuesday. “It is on the basis of a strong nuclear strength that peace and prosperity can exist and so can the happiness of people’s lives.”

Despite Ban’s warning, some North Korea experts believe the regime wants to avoid provoking a potentially catastrophic inter-Korea conflict.

“The North Korean regime indulges in this kind of behaviour all the time,” said Prof Shin Jong-dae of the University of North Korean Studies in Seoul. “The possibility of war breaking out is still very low, although there is always the chance of smaller skirmishes.

“But ultimately the North Koreans don’t want this to escalate out of control. They want a turning point in relations with the United States.”

The recent threats are in response to tougher UN sanctions imposed after Pyongyang’s third nuclear weapons test in February and ongoing military drills involving forces from South Korea and the US.

A spokesman for North Korea’s general bureau of atomic energy said the facilities to be restarted are a graphite-moderated five-megawatt reactor, which generates spent fuel rods laced with plutonium and is the core of the Yongbyon nuclear complex. When fully operational the complex is capable of producing one atomic bomb’s worth of plutonium – the most common fuel in nuclear weapons – a year.

The move will increase fears in Washington and among its allies about North Korea’s push for nuclear-tipped missiles that can reach the US.

The reactor went online in 1986 after seven years of construction. The country also began building a 50-megawatt and a 200-megawatt reactor in 1984, but their construction was suspended under a 1994 nuclear deal with Washington.

North Korea has long said its reactor operation is aimed at generating electricity. It takes about 8,000 fuel rods to run the reactor. Reprocessing the spent fuel rods after a year of reactor operation could yield about 7kg of plutonium, enough to make at least one nuclear bomb, experts say.

The North’s atomic energy bureau spokesman said work to restart the nuclear facilities “will be put into practice without delay”, although it was unclear how long it would take to actually restart the Yongbyon plant.

Its cooling tower was destroyed in 2008 as part of the denuclearisation deal, and it may no longer be connected to North Korea’s antiquated electricity grid.

“It was a reactor that was nearing obsolescence with a cooling tower that wasn’t functioning properly when it was blown up. It could mean they have been rebuilding quite a few things,” said Yoo Ho-yeol, a North Korea specialist at Korea University in Seoul.