Author: Neville

  • The Queen of Icelandic Volcanoes (KH)

    28.03.2013 | 13:00

    The Queen of Icelandic Volcanoes (KH)
    In the past two days news broke about unusual seismic activity around the volcano Hekla.

    Naturally, it became talk of the town.

    Officially, a level of uncertainty has been issued and the related parties continue to monitor Hekla closely.

    So can you by keeping your eyes on the volcano with this webcam.

    Actually, everybody was waiting for Hekla’s neighbor Katla to blow, as an eruption is more than overdue.

    Now it seems that Katla’s little sister Hekla is keeping the world on tenterhooks.

    Here in Iceland, one usually refers to Hekla and Katla as the “angry sisters.”

    I was once told that volcanoes had women’s names in Iceland because their nature was just like women: unpredictable and explosive.

    Stratovolcano Hekla is located in South Iceland in the proximity of notorious Eyjafjallajökull and said Katla. Icelanders call it the “queen of Icelandic volcanoes” (Drottning íslenskra eldfjalla).

    Its first recorded eruption occurred in 1104. Since then there have been around twenty to thirty outbreaks.

    Hekla’s eruptions are extremely varied and quite difficult to predict. But there is a general correlation: the longer Hekla lies dormant, the larger and more catastrophic its opening eruption will be.

    Still, no need to panic since the most recent eruption was not too long ago, in 2000.

    But for now, nobody can say if Hekla will erupt soon or stay calm for many more years.

    Hekla. Photo: Páll Stefánsson/Iceland Review.
    That is the thing with volcanoes, we know they will erupt eventually but no one can really predict when and how powerful the eruption will be.

    The recent change in seismic activity might be a hint towards a possible eruption of Hekla, but then we also had news in January 2010 that patches near the summit were not covered with snow anymore and that the pressure of Hekla’s lava chamber had reached levels similar to those before Hekla last erupted. However, no eruption followed.

    As I’ve mentioned before, Icelanders aren’t panicking or scared given a possible volcanic eruption but rather curious if not indifferent.

    Over the past 500 years, Iceland’s volcanoes have erupted a third of the total global lava output. Not bad for a tiny island.

    Being worried and scared doesn’t help anyway and I am confident that the respective authorities are on high alert and have everything under control.

    Volcanoes are dangerous, that is for sure, but they are also highly fascinating and partly responsible for Iceland’s great attraction to people ever since men set foot on this island.

    In conclusion, we know nothing and everything is possible.

    Happy Easter!

    Katharina Hauptmann – katha.hauptmann@gmail.com

  • Stanford survey: Americans back preparation for extreme weather and sea-level rise

    Stanford survey: Americans back preparation for extreme weather and sea-level rise
    Posted On: March 28, 2013 – 9:00pm

    Images told the story: lower Manhattan in darkness, coastal communities washed away, cars floating in muck. Superstorm Sandy, a harbinger of future extreme weather intensified by climate change, caught the country off guard in October.

    Unprepared for the flooding and high winds that ensued, the East Coast suffered more than $70 billion in property damage and more than 100 deaths.

    Will Americans prepare and invest now to minimize the impact of disasters such as Sandy, or deal with storms and rising sea levels after they occur?

    A new survey commissioned by the Stanford Woods Institute for the Environment and the Center for Ocean Solutions finds that an overwhelming majority of Americans want to prepare in order to minimize the damage likely to be caused by global warming-induced sea-level rise and storms.

    A majority also wants people whose properties and businesses are located in hazard areas to foot the bill for this preparation, not the government. Eighty-two percent of the Americans surveyed said that people and organizations should prepare for the damage likely to be caused by sea-level rise and storms, rather than simply deal with the damage after it happens.

    Among the most popular policy solutions identified in the survey are stronger building codes for new structures along the coast to minimize damage (favored by 62 percent) and preventing new buildings from being built near the coast (supported by 51 percent).

    “People support preventive action,” said survey director Jon Krosnick, a senior fellow at the Stanford Woods Institute for the Environment and professor of communication, “and few people believe these preparations will harm the economy or eliminate jobs. In fact, more people believe that preparation efforts will help the economy and create jobs around the U.S., in their state and in their town than think these efforts will harm the economy and result in fewer jobs in those areas. But people want coastal homeowners and businesses that locate in high-risk areas to pay for these measures.”

    The challenges posed by rising sea levels and increasingly severe storms will only intensify as more Americans build along the coasts. A National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration report released March 25 predicts that already crowded U.S. coastlines will become home to an additional 11 million people by 2020.

    Survey questions were formulated to assess participants’ beliefs about climate change and gather opinions about the impact of climate change, sea-level rise and storms on communities, the economy and jobs.

    The survey also gauged public support for specific coastal adaptation strategies and how to pay for them. “People are least supportive of policies that try to hold back Mother Nature,” Krosnick said. “They think it makes more sense to recognize risk and reduce exposure.”

    Among the survey’s respondents, 48 percent favor sand dune restoration and 33 percent favor efforts to maintain beaches with sand replenishment, while 37 percent support relocating structures away from the coast and 33 percent support constructing sea walls.

    Eighty-two percent of the survey’s respondents believe that Earth’s temperature has been rising over the last 100 years. However, even a majority of those who doubt the existence of climate change favor adaptation measures (60 percent).

    “The question is, how does public support for preparation translate to action?” asked Meg Caldwell, executive director of the Center for Ocean Solutions. “Our impulse is to try to move quickly to put communities back together the way they were after devastation. But that impulse often leads to doubling down on high-risk investments, such as rebuilding in areas likely to experience severe impacts. To move toward long-term resiliency for coastal communities, we need to seize opportunities to apply new thinking, new standards and long-term solutions.”

    Krosnick presented the survey results this morning at a policy briefing hosted by the Stanford Woods Institute for the Environment at the National Press Club in Washington, D.C.

    The briefing was followed by a discussion about the implications of changing public attitudes with four panelists: Cas Holloway, deputy mayor for operations in New York City; Laurie McGilvray, chief of the Estuarine Reserves Division of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration; Margaret Peloso, an attorney with the international law firm of Vinson & Elkins; and Carol Werner, the executive director of the Environmental and Energy Study Institute. Videos of the presentation and the panel discussion will be available by 4 p.m. Eastern/1 p.m. Pacific time on the Stanford Woods Institute website.

    The survey was conducted via the Internet with a nationally representative probability sample of 1,174 American adults, 18 and older, conducted by GfK Custom Research March 3-18, 2013. The survey was administrated in both English and Spanish. The survey has a margin of error of +/-4.9 percent at the 95 percent confidence level.

    Source: Stanford University

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  • Greenland halts new oil drilling licences

    Greenland halts new oil drilling licences

    Government reluctant to hand out new permits while exploration under existing licences will be subject to more scrutiny
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    Terry Macalister

    The Guardian, Wednesday 27 March 2013 22.47 GMT

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    Greenpeace activists climb an oil rig off the Greenland coast in 2011. The country has imposed a moratorium on drilling. Photograph: Steve Morgan/EPA

    The new government in Greenland has slapped a moratorium on the granting of fresh offshore oil and gas drilling licences in the country’s Arctic waters in a move which has been welcomed by Greenpeace but will disappoint the industry.

    The ban came as one of the Arctic drilling pioneers, the British company Cairn Energy, failed in a bid to keep an injunction on any protests organised against it by Greenpeace.

    A coalition agreement signed by prime minister Aleqa Hammond and others inside a newly elected administration said it would be “reluctant” to hand out any new permits, while exploration under existing licences could only be done under much heavier safety scrutiny. Oil industry experts in London said that a new licensing round that would have opened up waters off the north east of Greenland would not now take place.

    Jon Burgwald, Arctic campaigner for Greenpeace in Denmark, said it was good news for everyone: “Until now, the people of Greenland have been kept in the dark about the enormous risks taken by the politicians and companies in the search for Arctic oil. Now it seems that the new government will start taking these risks seriously. The logical conclusion must be a total ban on offshore oil drilling in Greenland.”

    Thecoalition agreement makes clear a parliamentary body will be established to scrutinise offshore operations while promising oil spill safety plans will be made publicly available in future.

    Greenland, with Alaska and Russia, has been at the forefront of oil company hopes to uncover an estimated 25% of the world’s remaining oil and gas reserves lying under and around the Arctic ocean.

    Early drilling operations by Cairn and Shell infuriated environmentalists worried about global warming and concerned that the pristine and icy waters of the far north could be irreparably damaged by any oil spills.

    A decision by the former Greenland government and Cairn not to make public any spill response plan caused particular concern and led to Cairn’s Edinburgh headquarters being taken over briefly by protestors dressed as polar bears.

    A legal injunction obtained by Cairn against Greenpeace International was lifted on Wednesday although a parallel one against Greenpeace UK, which organised the protest back in 2011, remains in place. Cairn spent $1.4bn (£1bn) drilling without commercial success off Greenland while Shell has just been forced to drop plans to drill again off Alaska this summer after it ran into a series of technical problems in the region during 2012.

    Hammond’s Siumut party came to power this month following an election campaign dominated by a debate over the activities of foreign investors and concerns among the 57,000 population that Greenland’s future could be dictated by the demands of potentially polluting new industries rather than traditional Inuit fishing and hunting.

  • Solar-powered plane to make coast-to-coast US tour in scientific first

    Solar-powered plane to make coast-to-coast US tour in scientific first

    Solar Impulse, which has a top speed of 50mph, will showcase technology that allows it to fly night and day without jet fuel
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    Rory Carroll in Los Angeles

    guardian.co.uk, Thursday 28 March 2013 21.43 GMT

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    Bertrand Piccard and Andre Borschberg speak during a press conference with the Solar Impulse solar-powered plane. Photograph: Tony Avelar/AP

    The creators of the world’s first solar-powered plane have announced it will fly across the United States in a coast-to-coast showcase of the experimental technology.

    The Solar Impulse, which has a wingspan longer than a Boeing 747 but weighs less than a car, is due to take off from San Francisco in May and spend two months hop-scotching across US cities until ending its tour in New York in July.

    The announcement was made on Thursday at a news conference at Moffett airfield, near San Francisco.

    Its Swiss inventors, Bertrand Piccard and Andre Borschberg, hope the spectacle of the odd-looking aircraft powered by about 12,000 photovoltaic cells, allowing it to fly day and night without jet fuel, will animate debate about solar technology potential.

    “Only by challenging common certitudes can there be change and, through conferences on educational themes, Solar Impulse wishes to motivate everybody to become a pioneer in the search for innovative solutions for society’s biggest challenges,” they said in a statement.

    Engineers are not claiming it will replace fuel-powered flight: the Solar Impulse has just one seat for the pilot, four small electric engines, cannot fly through clouds and has a top speed of 50mph. The wings are designed to create lift and space for solar cells, which fuel lithium polymer batteries. Piccard and Borschberg will take turns flying it.

    The Federal Aviation Authority authorised the voyage after inspecting the aircraft, also known as HB-SIA, after it was shipped from Europe in a cargo plane and reassembled in California.

    The journey will begin the first day in May that weather permits, said spokesperson Alenka Zibetto. The first stop will be Phoenix, followed by Dallas, then either Atlanta or St Louis, then Washington DC and New York. “We’ll be holding events in each city. We’ll be taking it easy.”

    Each stop will last around 10 days, with the exact timetable determined by weather. Test flights will start around the San Francisco bay from March 30.

    The plane’s capabilities have advanced rapidly in recent years. It flew 26 hours non-stop in 2010 to show it could absorb enough solar energy during sunlight to continue during the night. In 2012 it flew 1,550 miles from Madrid to Morocco, crossing a narrow stretch of the Mediterranean, in 20 hours. Its inventors plan to fly a second prototype, the HB-SIB, around the world in 2015.

    “Eleven percent larger, HB-SIB is designed to cross oceans and more humid climates from east to west in the northern hemisphere,” according to the project’s website.

    A carbon-fiber frame and spartan design minimises weight. A toilet is built into the pilot’s seat.

    “There is no heating, there’s no pressurisation, so we need an oxygen mask. So, yes, it’s more difficult and maybe less comfortable than flying through an airliner,” Borschberg told NPR. “The contact with the external world is much more intense.”

    His partner Piccard is the scion of adventurers. His father Jacques was an oceanographer who set records for ocean dives. His grandfather August was the first to fly a balloon into the stratosphere.

    Piccard made headlines for circumnavigating the planet in a balloon in 1999. He nearly ran out of fuel, prompting interest in reducing or eliminating fuel dependency, a project he and Borschberg developed over the past decade.

  • UK’s CO2 emissions up 4.5% in 2012

    UK’s CO2 emissions up 4.5% in 2012

    • Huge jump in coal use in power stations prompts rise
    • Scotland renewables production hits record levels
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    Damian Carrington and Severin Carrell

    guardian.co.uk, Thursday 28 March 2013 16.48 GMT

    Eggborough power station, a coal-fired plant near Selby, North Yorkshire. Photograph: John Giles/PA

    The UK’s emissions of climate-warming gases surged in 2012 as cheap coal replaced gas in power stations, official data revealed on Thursday.

    However, 2012 was a record year for renewable energy in Scotland, which produced enough electricity to power all of its homes. Fergus Ewing, the Scottish energy minister, said his government was now on track to meet its target of generating the equivalent of 50% of Scotland’s own electricity needs by 2015 and 100% by 2020.

    The UK’s carbon dioxide emissions rose by 4.5% from 2011-12, with coal use in power stations jumping by 31%. Coal prices have dropped significantly as the US has exported the coal it no longer needs at home due to the shale gas boom. Another factor is that many of the UK’s coal-fired power stations must close soon, due to European pollution regulations, meaning they have been using up their allotted hours. The gas used in power stations dropped by 31%.

    But there was a jump in the gas used to heat homes due to a cold last quarter of 2012, which the department for energy and climate change said had been 2.3C colder than Q4 2011. The cold weather in the UK in recent weeks led to gas reserve levels falling to just two days worth, with the price spiking as a result.

    Emissions rose in the business sector, despite the UK’s flatlining economy. But pollution from transport – a quarter of all emissions – fell by 1.2%. Overall, the UK’s emissions remain about 20% lower than in 1990, largely due to gas replacing coal and some industry moving manufacturing abroad. The statistics also showed that UK imports of energy were higher in 2012 than for several decades.

    “Emissions are now 26% lower than 1990, meaning we’re on track to meet our legally binding targets,” said energy and climate change secretary Ed Davey. “But the line on the graph is unlikely to be totally straight, as factors such as the weather and fluctuations in the precise energy mix vary the picture from one year to the next. The UK’s continued shift to low carbon will be accelerated by the green deal to help householders overhaul their properties, and by our energy bill’s reforms to the electricity market to bring on investment in renewables, new nuclear and CCS.”

    Nick Molho, head of energy policy at WWF-UK, said: “The government’s role on energy is threefold: ensuring energy security, keeping bills down and decarbonising our energy system. These statistics are worrying, because they show that the UK is going the wrong way in all these areas. Increased reliance on fossil fuel imports is the main problem we face and the sad thing is that it’s government policies, notably driven by the Treasury, that are causing this.”

    Kathy Cumming at Greenpeace said: “These figures show the ‘greenest government ever’ is failing in its bid to shift the UK to a low-carbon economy. The two best things it could do in order to redeem itself are support Tim Yeo’s energy bill amendment, which would remove carbon from the electricity sector by 2030, and put an end to coal burning.”

    The statistics came out on the day that energy minister John Hayes – an outspoken opponent of onshore wind farms – was moved out of the department. His replacement, Michael Fallon, will also retain his post at the department of business, which some stakeholders hope will mean the coalition doing more to boost investor confidence in the energy sector, which needs £110bn by 2020.

    In Scotland, renewable energy output has continued to grow markedly, hitting a new record of 14,600Gwh in 2012, up by 7% on the previous year. Windfarm output was four times greater than in 2006.

    Scottish wind and hydro schemes generated 35% of the UK’s total renewables output in 2012, and that – averaged out across the year – provided enough green electricity for every home in Scotland.

    “It was another record year for renewables in Scotland,” Ewing said. “Scotland also contributed more than a third of the entire UK’s renewables output, demonstrating just how important a role our renewable resource is playing in terms of helping the UK meet its binding EU renewable energy targets.”

    The industry body Scottish Renewables said £1.5bn had been invested in renewables in Scotland last year – more than double the spending in 2011 – but there are doubts within the industry and among investors about whether the 100% target can be achieved. Hitting that target will rely heavily on expensive and technically challenging large offshore windpower schemes; there is much less capacity for larger onshore schemes.

    The Scottish government is under intensifying pressure from environment and climate campaigners to improve its CO2 emissions reduction and climate strategies, after admitting it had failed to meet its 2010 reduction target.

    The UK’s official committee on climate change said the very cold winter in 2010 was largely to blame for the missed target, but Stop Climate Chaos Scotland said the government would miss its targets for several years to come because its climate strategies were too weak.

    The Scottish government’s targets are highly dependent on the EU increasing its CO2 reduction targets from 20% to 30%, but that is not expected before 2016. While anxious to champion energy investment, Scottish ministers are very reluctant to target motorists or cut road building, and are accused of under-investing in home insulation and low-carbon motoring.

  • Scientists link frozen spring to dramatic Arctic sea ice loss

    Scientists link frozen spring to dramatic Arctic sea ice loss

    Melting sea ice, exposing huge parts of the ocean to the atmosphere, explains extreme weather both hot and cold
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    John Vidal, environment editor

    guardian.co.uk, Monday 25 March 2013 17.03 GMT

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    Arctic ice loss adds heat to the ocean and atmosphere which shifts the position of the jet stream, which affects weather in the northern hemisphere. Photograph: Owen Humphreys/PA

    Climate scientists have linked the massive snowstorms and bitter spring weather now being experienced across Britain and large parts of Europe and North America to the dramatic loss of Arctic sea ice.

    Both the extent and the volume of the sea ice that forms and melts each year in the Arctic Ocean fell to an historic low last autumn, and satellite records published on Monday by the National Snow and Ice Data Centre (NSIDC) in Boulder, Colorado, show the ice extent is close to the minimum recorded for this time of year.

    “The sea ice is going rapidly. It’s 80% less than it was just 30 years ago. There has been a dramatic loss. This is a symptom of global warming and it contributes to enhanced warming of the Arctic,” said Jennifer Francis, research professor with the Rutgers Institute of Coastal and Marine Science.

    According to Francis and a growing body of other researchers, the Arctic ice loss adds heat to the ocean and atmosphere which shifts the position of the jet stream – the high-altitude river of air that steers storm systems and governs most weather in northern hemisphere.

    “This is what is affecting the jet stream and leading to the extreme weather we are seeing in mid-latitudes,” she said. “It allows the cold air from the Arctic to plunge much further south. The pattern can be slow to change because the [southern] wave of the jet stream is getting bigger. It’s now at a near record position, so whatever weather you have now is going to stick around,” she said.

    Francis linked the Arctic temperature rises to extreme weather in mid latitudes last year and warned in September that 2012’s record sea ice melt could lead to a cold winter in the UK and northern Europe.

    She was backed by Vladimir Petoukhov, professor of Earth system analysis at Potsdam Institute in Germany, whose research suggests the loss of ice this year could be changing the direction of the jet stream.

    “The ice was at a record low last year and is now exceptionally low in some parts of the Arctic like the Labrador and Greenland seas. This could be one reason why anticyclones are developing,” he said.

    The heavy snowfall and freezing temperatures which have marked March 2013 across the northern hemisphere are in stark contrast to March 2012 when many countries experienced their warmest ever springs. The hypothesis that wind patterns are being changed because melting Arctic sea ice has exposed huge swaths of normally frozen ocean to the atmosphere would explain both the extremes of heat and cold, say the scientists.

    A recent paper by the US government’s National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) also found that enhanced warming of the Arctic influenced weather across the northern hemisphere.

    “With more solar energy going into the Arctic Ocean because of lost ice, there is reason to expect more extreme weather events, such as heavy snowfall, heat waves, and flooding in North America and Europe,” said the researchers.

    The Met Office’s chief scientist has previously said the melting Arctic ice is in part responsible for the UK’s recent colder winters.

    The possible links between Arctic sea ice loss and extreme weather were made as the UK’s government’s outgoing chief scientific adviser Sir John Beddington warned that the world could expect more extremes of weather.

    “The [current] variation we are seeing in temperature or rainfall is double the rate of the average. That suggests that we are going to have more droughts, we are going to have more floods, we are going to have more sea surges and we are going to have more storms.” He said that said there was a “need for urgency” in tackling climate change.

    “These are the sort of changes that are going to affect us in quite a short timescale,” he warned. Last year saw record heat, rainfall, drought and floods in the northern hemisphere.